Professor, Civil Engineer, Dr. Engineer
D.Koutsoyiannis@itia.ntua.gr
+30-2107722831
http://www.itia.ntua.gr/dk/
Upgrade of the hydraulics laboratory for the modeling of water supply networks & design and operation optimization study
Duration: September 2012–August 2015
Budget: €34 422
Commissioned by: Research Promotion Foundation of Cyprys
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: P. Papanicolaou
The main components of the project are: (a) Upgrading of the existing technological equipment of the Cyprus University of Technology, for supporting the research needs; (b) Development of a digital imprint of a selected water supply network (Paphos Municipality), with combined use of state-of-the-art technologies, such as GPS, GIS and SRS; (c) Development of a generalized modelling framework and related computational/mathematical tools (in terms of hydraulic simulation models and multiobjective evolutionary algorithms), which will be tested in the optimization of the design and operation of the pilot water supply network; (d) Development of an experimental representation aimed at improving the design and operation of the network and its systems, (e) Experimental verification of the computational results and development of know-how in matters relating to systems of supervision and self-regulation of pumps and valves. NTUA mainly contributes in water supply network modelling issues, focusing on the development of the optimization framework and their integration within a computational system. Moreover, NTUA provides support in the formulation of the specifications for the upgrading of the laboratory equipment and the implementation of the experiments.
Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO)
Duration: February 2014–July 2015
Budget: €315 000
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: Αριστεία ΙΙ
The project's objective is to develop a holistic framework for optimal planning and management of large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems, in which hydropower plays the dominant role. The scale refers to both the size of energy units and their spatial extent, and is of major importance, as efficiency increases with scale, while uncertainty decreases. Outcomes of the research include a coherent stochastic-entropic theory for uncertainty assessment of the processes that are related to energy production (wind velocity, solar radiation, streamflow), and a parameterization-simulation-optimization scheme inspired from established system-based approaches for supporting optimal decision-making in complex water management problems. The whole framework is integrated within a decision support system (DSS), in which several software tools are integrated . The methodology and the DSS are tested at a large region that covers 12% of Greece, characterized by substantial hydropower potential. The study area is viewed as a closed and energy-autonomous system, in order to investigate the perspectives of sustainable development at a regional scale, using exclusively renewable energy sources. Following the principle of openness, we provide free accessibility to data, methods and tools, through a broad range of dissemination activities.
DEUCALION – Assessment of flood flows in Greece under conditions of hydroclimatic variability: Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools
Duration: March 2011–March 2014
Budget: €145 000
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: ΕΣΠΑ "Συνεργασία"
The project aims to develop a set of physically-based methodologies associated with modelling and forecasting of extreme rainfall events and the subsequent flood events, and adapted to the peculiarities of the hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions of Greece. It includes the implementation of a set of research river basins that comprises a number of gauged basins in Greece and Cyprus with reliable measurements of adequate length, as well as three new experimental basins (with their sub-basins), which will be equipped with the necessary infrastructure. From the field data analysis (hydrological, meteorological, geographical) physically-established regional models will be devoloped for the estimation of characteristic hydrological design quantities, along with hydrological-hydraulic models, which will be integrated within an operational system for hydrometeorological forecasting. A framework of design criteria and methodologies (in a draft form for discussion) will be prepared for the elaboration of hydrological studies for flood-prevention works.
Project web-page: http://deucalionproject.gr/
Integrated study for the investigation of the quantity, quality and recovery of the underwater springs of the Stoupa region in Municipality of Lefktros, Messinia
Duration: January 2009–December 2010
Budget: €220 000
Commissioned by:
Contractors:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: P. Papanicolaou
The main objective of the project is to investigate the possibility of exploitation of the underwater springs of Stoupa, in the Municipality of Lefktra. The contribution of NTUA is the evaluation of the possible freshwater capture works from the underwater spring. The project comprises two stages: (a) the investigation of the problem and the development of a methodology for the capture, transport and temporary storage of the freshwater, which includes field work in a pilot study, and the construction and testing of the temporary pilot facility, and (b) the outline of the works required for the transport and storage of potable water.
Flood risk estimation and forecast using hydrological models and probabilistic methods
Duration: February 2007–August 2008
Budget: €15 000
Commissioned by: National Technical University of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Collaborators: Hydrologic Research Center
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: S.M. Papalexiou
Programme: Πρόγραμμα Βασικής Έρευνας ΕΜΠ "Κωνσταντίνος Καραθεοδωρή"
The objective of this project is the development of an integrated framework for the estimation and forecast of flood risk using stochastic, hydrological and hydraulics methods. The study area is the Boeticos Kephisos river basin. The project includes analysis of severe storm episodes in the basin, the understanding of mechanisms of flood generation in this karstic basin and the estimation of flood risk in characteristic sites of the hydrosystem.
Nonlinear methods in multicriteria water resource optimization problems
Duration: November 2002–December 2007
Budget: €33 274
Commissioned by: Ministry of National Education
Contractor: National Technical University of Athens
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Efstratiadis
Programme: Ηράκλειτος
Support on the compilation of the national programme for water resources management and preservation
Duration: February 2007–May 2007
Budget: €45 000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
This project updates and expands a previous research project (Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece), which has been commissioned by the Ministry of Development and conducted by the same team of NTUA in co-operation with the Ministry of Development, IGME, and KEPE.
The project includes defining the methodology, analyzing the water resources in the 14 water districts, quantity and quality and the relations between them, describing the existing administrative and development frameworks for water resources management and protection presenting the national, peripheral and sectoral water-related policies, and proposing an approach to a water resource management and protection programme (conclusions, problems, solutions, and proposals for projects and measures).
Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Duration: November 2005–December 2006
Budget: €60 000
Commissioned by: Special Directorate for the Management of Corporate Programs of Thessaly
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
Programme: Επιχειρησιακά Σχέδια Διαχείρισης Δικτύων Σμοκόβου
Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS)
Duration: July 2003–June 2006
Budget: €779 656
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: NAMA
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
Programme: ΕΠΑΝ, Φυσικό Περιβάλλον και Βιώσιμη Ανάπτυξη
The project aims at providing support to decision-making processes within the direction of integrated management of water resource systems at a variety of scales. Several methodologies and computing tools are developed, which are incorporated into an integrated information system. The main deliverable is an operational software package of general use, which is evaluated and tested on two pilot case studies, concerning hydrosystems in Greece with varying characteristics (Karditsa, Dodecanesus). The end-product of the project is a software system for simulation and optimisation of hydrosystem operation, as well as a series of separate software applications for solving specific problems, aiming at producing input data to the central system or post-processing of the results. The project includes eleven work packages, eight for basic research, two for industrial research and one for the pilot applications.
Testing of the new measuring system of the aqueduct of Mornos
Duration: January 2001–December 2003
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: J. Gavriilidis
In an earlier research project, the development of an automatic measuring system of water level meters and flow meters was proposed for the aqueduct network of the water supply of Athens. After the realisation of the measuring system, its devices should be checked for proper operation. The current project aims at scheduling and implementing a flow measurement programme at the sites where discharge meters are installed by the Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens (EYDAP) in the Mornos aqueduct, in order to check their accuracy based on the methodology proposed in the earlier project. Specifically, measurements are done using flow meter according to the ISO standard ISO 748 (1979, 1997; Measurement of liquid flow in open channels - Velocity-area methods). At each site 5 flow measurements (one daily measurement per month on the average) for different values of the discharge are done in steady state flow conditions. The measurements are processed appropriately, whereas for any problems of instrument inaccuracies that emerge, the appropriate solutions are studied and suggested.
Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Duration: March 1999–December 2003
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Due to the dry climate of the surrounding region, Athens has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history but now has acquired a reliable system for water supply. This extensive and complex water resource system extends over an area of around 4000 km2 and includes surface water and groundwater resources. It incorporates four reservoirs, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations and more than 100 boreholes. The water resource system also supplies secondary uses such as irrigation and water supply of nearby towns. The Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP) that runs the system commissioned this project, which comprises: (a) development of a geographical information system for the representation and supervision of the external water supply system; (b) development of a measurement system for the water resources of Athens; (c) development of a system for the estimation and prediction of the water resource system of Athens utilising stochastic models; (d) development of a decision support system for the integrated management of water resource system of Athens using simulation-optimisation methodologies; and (e) cooperation and transfer of knowledge between NTUA and EYDAP.
Products: 17 reports; 14 publications
Completion of the classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece
Duration: November 2001–April 2003
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Mamais
The project continues an earlier study elaborated by the Ministry of Development, the Department of Water Resources of the National Technical University of Athens, the Institute of Geology & Mineral Exploration, and the Centre of Planning and Research.The project objective is the classification of the existing information related to water quantity and quality in characteristic areas (water districts) of Greece, using geographical information systems. The specific objective of this phase is the analysis of water supply and demand balance, and the qualitative characterisation of water resources in four water districts of Greece.
Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams
Duration: February 1998–October 2001
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The objective of this research project is the estimation of the sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams. Specifically, an estimation of the volume of deposits in one of the reservoirs of the Public Power Corporation (the Kremasta Reservoir) is done using hydrographic methods. The estimation is used as a basis to calibrate a mathematical model of sediment discharge, which accounts for the processes involved such as soil erosion, sediment transport and deposition.
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3
Duration: November 1996–December 2000
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific themes of Phase 3 are: (a) the completion of the information systems of the previous phases, which concerned hydrological and hydrogeological information, by including two additional levels of information related to the water uses and the water resources development works; (b) the development of methodologies for optimising the hydrosystems operation and the construction of integrated simulation and optimisation models for the two major hydrosystems of the study area (Western and Eastern Sterea Hellas); and (c) the integration of all computer systems (databases, geographical information systems, application models) into a unified system with collaborating components.
Systematisation of the raw data archive of surface and subsurface waters of the Ministry of Agriculture in Thessalia
Duration: February 1997–January 1999
Commissioned by: Department of Hydrogeology, Boreholes and Mathematical Models
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: I. Nalbantis
The project aims at the modernisation of the archive of surface and subsurface water related data of the Ministry of Agriculture in the Thessalia region (mainly data on quantities of the drafts from both surface waters and groundwater pumped from public or private boreholes). It also includes the data organisation into a geographical information system and the data evaluation and processing, from which the evapotranspiration of the area is estimated using semi-empirical methods.
Upgrading and updating of hydrological information of Thessalia
Duration: May 1996–March 1997
Commissioned by: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: I. Nalbantis
The project includes the updating of existing archives of hydrometeorological data with the new measurements, and the upgrading of the databases using the new computational environment of the Hydroscope project. It also includes data processing and analysis in order to obtain a reliable and consistent hydrometeorological data set. The databases are linked to a geographical information system that is used for the processing and the visualisation of information. Based on this processing, the basic parameters of the water potential of the area are estimated and their geographical distribution is studied with emphasis on the recent persistent drought.
Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of the water resources of Greece using geographical information systems
Duration: February 1996–September 1996
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: A. Andreadakis
The project part related to water quantity aims at the development of a methodology for establishing a water balance between supply and demand and extracting the most important summary characteristics that are then entered into a geographical information system. The methodology is applied to characteristic areas (water districts) of Greece with adequacy of information (based on existing studies). The project part related to water quality aims at the characterisation of the rivers, lakes and aquifers based on the water quality characteristics, and the water uses and requirements. The characterisation is based on the classification of critical quantity parameters that have been measured and includes the use of a geographical information system.
Hydroscope II - Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Duration: April 1993–September 1995
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This project is complementary to the major Hydroscope project. Its objectives are the purchase of computational infrastructure and the pilot data entry into the databank that is developed in the framework of the major project. The data entered provides a means for testing of the operation of the distributed database and the wide area network, and the operational use of the related infrastructure.
Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Duration: January 1992–December 1993
Budget: 394 238 400 DRS (about €1 600 000)
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: D. Koutsoyiannis
Principal investigators: M. Aftias, D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: STRIDE
The main objective of HYDROSCOPE is the creation of a modern information infrastructure for the hydrological cycle in Greece. Specifically, it aims at organising and systematising the hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological information using the capacities that are provided by the modern methods and techniques of computer science and telecommunications. The database, which will be built, will contribute to the reliable programming, planning and management of the water resources of the country, the mitigation of phenomena like flood and drought, the evaluation of hydroclimatic parameters and their effects to the natural and biological environment, the diagnosis of climatic changes as well as the prediction and the control of the air pollution and the groundwater and surface water pollution. The development of a unified synergistic network, the information exchange and the co-ordination of the activities of the participating organisations, which are involved with the components of the hydrological cycle (Universities, Research Centres, Ministries and Services) as well as the reorganisation and standardisation of the hydrometeorological networks' function are considered as indirect but essential benefits. The programme includes: (a) hardware equipment, to install a network with 13 major nodes (RISC Workstations with Unix operation system) in Athens and Thessaloniki, local networks of PCs in each node, private high speed wide area network using routers and leased telephone lines, (b) infrastructure software, and specifically, distributed relational data base and graphic environment for applications' development, and (c) application software, and specifically, a distributed database system and applications concerning the input, the supervision and the processing of data in a graphic environment. This distributed database system provides firstly, the autonomy of each participant in managing data and secondly, a transparent, relatively to the data position, access. In addition, the project includes the locating of the available hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological data that is maintained by the participants and the determination of the volume, the form and the reliability of measurements. Finally, a significant part of HYDROSCOPE deals with the development and the standardisation of methodologies regarding the processing as well as the pilot data entry of a part of the hydrological, hydrogeological and meteorological information aiming at the testing of the methodologies and systems.
Maintenance, upgrading and extension of the Decision Support System for the management of the Athens water resource system
Duration: October 2008–November 2011
Budget: €72 000
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This research project includes the maintenance, upgrading and extension of the Decision Support System that developed by NTUA for EYDAP in the framework of the research project “Updating of the supervision and management of the water resources’ system for the water supply of the Athens’ metropolitan area”. The project is consisted of the following parts: (a) Upgrading of the Data Base, (b)Upgrading and extension of hydrometeorological network, (c) upgrading of the hydrometeorological data process software, (d) upgrading and extension of the Hydronomeas software, (e) hydrological data analysis and (f) support to the preparation of the annual master plans
Building the Future of Transnational Cooperation in Water Resources in South East Europe (EDUCATE!)
Duration: May 2006–August 2008
Budget: €200 000
Commissioned by: European Union
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: A. Katsiri
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: Interreg IIIB CADSES (Neighborhood Programme)
Educate! assists in shaping current and future policy and practice in Water Resources Management in SE Europe, through professional capacity building and provision of a common understanding of IWRM for young graduates within a cooperative, transnational environment. Specifically, Educate! is: 1. Setting up and operate a network of Higher Education Organisations in SE Europe with an expertise in Environmental Protection and Water Resources Management; 2. Developping a transnational postgraduate course on Integrated Water Resources Management; 3. Developping a flexible structure for delivering the course across geographic areas and across different audiences (from students to professionals) through e-learning and a modular format and 4. Running a pilot transnational postgraduate course and professional educational and training courses for governmental officials and industry.
Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake
Duration: May 2001–January 2002
Commissioned by:
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: K. Hadjibiros
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
To protect the Plastiras Lake, a high quality of the natural landscape and a satisfactory water quality must be ensured, the conflicting water uses and demands must be arranged and effective water management practices must be established. To this aim, the hydrology of the catchment is investigated, the geographical, meteorological and water power data are collected and processed, the water balance is studied and a stochastic model is constructed to support the study of alternative management scenarios. In addition, an analysis of the natural landscape is performed and the negative influences (e.g. dead tries) are determined and quantified using GIS. Furthermore, the water quality parameters are evaluated, the water quality state is assessed, the quantitative targets are determined, the pollution sources are identified and measures for the reduction of pollution are studied using a hydrodynamic model with emphasis on the nutrient status. Based on the results of these analyses, scenarios of safe water release are suggested.
National databank for hydrological and meteorological information - Hydroscope 2000
Duration: January 1997–December 2000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Mimikou
Principal investigators: D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Mimikou
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Duration: November 1993–October 1995
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigators: D. Koutsoyiannis, P. Marinos
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific themes of Phase 2 are: (a) the conversion of the databases of the previous phase into the new computer environment based on Unix and Windows workstations; (b) the conversion of the computer programs for statistical processing of hydrologic data into the new computer environment; (c) the development of software for hydrologic data processing and the processing of the Sterea Hellas data; (d) the development of a geographical information system for hydrological and hydrogeological information; (e) the review of existing studies regarding water uses; (f) the collection, evaluation and organising of hydrogeological data; and (g) the hydrogeological study of selected watersheds.
AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control
Duration: June 1991–May 1994
Budget: 17 300 000 DRS (about €83 900)
Commissioned by: DGXII / FP6-SUSTDEV-2005-3.II.1.2
Contractor: University of Bologna
Collaborators:
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: EPOCH
The aim of this project is the development of a comprehensive flood forecasting system and the study of alternative management policies intending to flood risk mitigation. The Greek research team contributes to AFORISM in the following tasks: (a) the analysis of intense rainfall events and their classification by weather type as well as the modelling of intense rainfall and the production of alternative hyetographs of temporal evolution of rainfall; (b) the comparison of the alternative rainfall-runoff models, using multiple time steps in modelling rainfall-runoff and applying it to Greek hydrological basins. The contribution of the other research teams deal with: (a) the forecasting of spatial-temporal evolution of rainfall using limited area models; (b) the development of optimisation models in order to mitigate flood risks; (c) the development of an expert system for flood management; (d) the development of a geographical information system for visualisation of the evaluation of flood and its consequences; and (e) the integration of the forecast and control system in the Reno basin (Italy).
Development of a relational data base for management and processing of hydrometric information
Duration: September 1991–May 1993
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
Programme: ΠΕΝΕΔ/1989
This project aims in utilising modern computer techniques, namely relational databases, for the management of hydrological data, and, to some extent, river flow data. It also aims in the development of software for data entry, testing, presentation, and processing of the data. Specifically, it includes: (1) development of specifications, and selection, purchase and installation of a relational database system; (2) database design on conceptual and physical level; (3) development of software for data entry and preliminary testing of data, and for conversion of data already available in other systems; (4) development of software for data processing (e.g. generation of hourly discharge time series from stage recorder tapes and discharge measurements); and (5) development of software for viewing and printing the raw hydrological data and their statistical characteristics, as well as standardisation of the most important database queries (e.g. mean discharge, maximum discharge, discharge correlation between different positions or basins, etc.)
Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 1
Duration: December 1990–November 1992
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The main objectives of the research project are the evaluation and management of the water resources, both surface and subsurface, of the Sterea Hellas region, and the systematic study of all parameters related to the rational development and management of the water resources of this region. Another objective of the project, considered as an infrastructure work, is the development of software for the hydrological, hydrogeological and operational simulation of the combined catchments of the study area. The development of the software and, at the same time, the development of methodologies suitable for the Greek conditions will assist in decision-making concerning the water resources management of Sterea Hellas and of other Greek regions. The project also aims at the improving of the cooperation between the National Technical University of Athens and the Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works. This is considered as a necessary condition for the continuous updating of the project results as well as for the rational analysis of the water resource problems of the Sterea Hellas region. The specific objective of Phase 1 is the collection and the organising of the surface water data and the development of hydrological simulation programs.
A pilot study for the management of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds
Duration: June 1989–April 1991
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The objective of the pilot study is the combined management of the surface and subsurface water resources of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds. The main target is to obtain an insight of the interrelation of the relevant quantities, to draw conclusions regarding the management of water resources of the two catchments, and to locate the issues that will require further research. An additional objective is the development of a methodology for water resources planning and management, which can be applied to other watersheds or water districts in Greece.
Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Duration: May 1989–June 1990
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The project includes the following main components: (1) Processing and analysis of the available hydrometeorological data and estimation of the water potential of the Mornos, Evinos and Yliki watersheds. (2) Hydrologic design study of alternative reservoirs in the Evinos River basin combined with the operation of the Mornos reservoir. (3) Study for improving of the hydrometeorological measuring system at Mornos and Evinos watersheds. (4) Evaluation of the exploitable water potential of the Yliki Lake and the alternative rational ways of its management, both under the current conditions and future conditions, without or with the Evinos reservoir. (5) Development of methodologies and computer programs for the support of the rational scheduling of the water release from Yliki.
Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1
Duration: November 1987–February 1989
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
This project aims at organising the hydrological information in the Mornos and Evinos watersheds, and more specifically, the collection, the evaluation, the archiving and the processing of hydrometeorological data of these basins. The project also deals with the estimation of the actual release capacity of the Mornos reservoir and the appraisal of the alternatives for improving it by diverting water from the Evinos River.
Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Duration: July 1986–October 1988
Commissioned by: Division of Acheloos Diversion Works
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: D. Koutsoyiannis
The project aims at organising the hydrological information in the Thessalia water district, and more specifically, the collection, the evaluation, the archiving and the processing of hydrometeorological data of the district. The project also deals with the development of an appropriate hydrological infrastructure (criteria and hydrologic design parameters) to support the studies of the works for the development of the Thessalia Plain (irrigation projects, flood protection works and dams) also considering the planned diversion of the Acheloos River.
Development of Database and software applications in a web platform for the "National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information"
Duration: December 2009–May 2011
Budget: €140 000
Commissioned by: Hydroscope Systems Consortium
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
The Ministry of Environment, Physical Planning & Public Works assigned to a consortium of consultancy companies the Project "Development of a new software platform for the management and operation of the National Databank for Hydrologic and Meteorological Information - 3rd Phase within a GIS environment and relevant dissemination actions". In the framework of the specific project a research team of NTUA undertakes a part as subcontractor. NTUA delivers methodologies for further development of the databases and applications of the Databank and their migration into a web platform (including the experimental node openmeteo.org for free data storage for the public). Specifically, using the knowhow that has been developed in the past by Research Teams from the Department of Water Resources of the School of Civil Engineering a database system and software applications (included hydrological models) are created fully adapted for operation over the Internet. NTUA's contribution is primarily on the design of the new system and the hydrological and geographical database the development of distibuted hydological models, the adaptation of the system to the WFD 2000/60/EC and on supporting dissemination activities. Finally NTUA will participate in the technical support and pilot operation of the project after its delivery from the consortium to the Ministry.
More information is available at http://www.hydroscope.gr/.
Observations, Analysis and Modeling of Lightning Activity in Thunderstorms, for Use in Short Term Forecasting of Flash Floods
Duration: October 2006–September 2009
Commissioned by: DGXII / FP6-SUSTDEV-2005-3.II.1.2
Contractor: National Observatory of Athens
Project director: K. Lagouvardos
Development of a Geographical Information System and an Internet application for the supervision of Kephisos protected areas
Duration: April 2008–March 2009
Budget: €30 000
Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering
Project director: N. Mamassis
Principal investigator: N. Mamassis
The main purpose of the system is the supervision of the protected areas in Kephisos river basin. Using the applications that will be developed, the staff of Kephisos Institution will achieve the real time recording of various activities that are built up inside the limits of protection belts. Specifically, three main applications will be developed: (a) A Geographical Information System (GIS) (b) An General Positioning System Application (GPS) (c) An Internet application
EU COST Action C22: Urban Flood Management
Duration: June 2005–December 2007
Project director: C. Zevenbergen
The primary objective is to increase knowledge required for prevention and mitigation of potential flood impacts to urban areas by exchanging experiences, developing integrated approaches, and by promoting the diffusion of best practices in Urban Flood Management. Secondary objectives are to develop holistic approaches in Urban Flood Management, to initiate R&D projects for the EU 7th Framework programme, to stimulate national R&D activities and to increase awareness of the importance of flood management. The action includes three phases: (1) inventory (state-of-the-art relevant aspects of UFM), (2) analysis and integration (best practices and knowledge gaps), and (3) dissimination and consolidation. The action involves four working groups: (1) models and tools to assess flood probability and measures to reduce probability, (2) models and tools to assess impact of flooding to decrease vulnerability, (3) flood recovery methods and methods of damage compensation, and (4) non-technical measures and techniques to decrease vulnerability.
Investigation and remedy of the stability problems of the banks and bed of the Philothei Creek using mathematical models and modern environmental methods
Duration: March 2004–September 2004
Budget: €74 500
Commissioned by: Municipality of Philothei
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: A. Stamou
The effect of a series of alternative environmental-friendly works in the Philothei Creek, aiming at the ensuring of bed and banks stability, is investigated. The project includes (1) identification of the geometrical characteristics of the creek, (2) assessment of a series of alternative environmental-friendly works at specific sites, (3) examination of these works from the hydraulic point of view (hydrological and hydraulic modelling) and (4) formulation of final scheme of works and estimation of their cost.
Study and research network with applications in Greece and Cyprus
Duration: November 2000–November 2002
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Contractor: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
Collaborators:
Project director: E. Sidiropoulos
Programme: ΕΠΑΝ
A Network for the Research of the Water Resources of Greece and Cyprus is created, whose objective is the theoretical and practical study of water resource problems that are met mostly in Cyprus, but also are relevant with Greek areas with similar hydroclimatic conditions.
Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data - Refinement and testing of simplified models
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Commissioned by: UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Contractor: Imperial College, London
Collaborators: University College London
Project directors: V. S. Isham, H. S. Wheater
Assessment of sediment generation in Thriasio
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Contractor: School of Civil Engineering
Project director: P. Marinos
Development of legislation framework for the drinking water of Athens
Duration: June 1999–May 2000
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Bonazountas
Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data
Duration: January 1999–January 2000
Commissioned by: UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Contractor: Imperial College, London
Collaborators: University College London
Project directors: V. S. Isham, H. S. Wheater
Integrated management of the riparian ecosystem of the Sperhios river
Duration: January 1995–May 1995
Commissioned by: European Union
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Bonazountas
Programme: LIFE
A pilot study for the water resources management of the Epirus water district
Duration: September 1991–September 1993
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water and Natural Resources
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators:
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: I. Nalbantis
The main objective is to obtain an insight of the interrelation of the water balance components of the Epirus water district. The methodology is based on an earlier project regarding the water resources of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds. The role of the research team of the National Technical University of Athens is to supervise the project and evaluate its results at each stage of the project.
Study of the measuring system of the aqueduct network of Athens - Phase 1
Duration: June 1990–December 1990
Commissioned by: Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Principal investigator: J. Gavriilidis
The objective of Phase 1 of the project is the testing of the reliability of the existing measuring system of the aqueduct network of Athens and the initial approximate estimation of the discharge capacities of the aqueducts.
Investigation of use of stormwater for irrigation - Application to the area of Archanes municipality
Duration: January 1988–December 1988
Commissioned by: Municipality of Archanes
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: G. Tsakiris
Environmental impacts of the irrigation project in the lake Mikri Prespa, Florina, Phase A
Duration: January 1987–December 1987
Commissioned by: Ministry of the National Economy
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Project director: M. Bonazountas
Estimation and integrated management of the water resources and environment of the Aliakmon watershed
Duration: January 1982–January 1986
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Research and Technology
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
Water quality and assimilative capacity investigations of Kalamas river and lake Pamvotis (Ioannina)
Duration: February 1984–December 1984
Commissioned by: Ministry of Planning, Housing and Environment
Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering
Collaborators: Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry
Project director: Th. Xanthopoulos
The project components are the following: (1) Hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the Kalamas River and the Lapsista ditch. (2) Water budget of the Pambotis Lake. (3) Sampling and water quality analyses. (4) Inventory of pollution sources. (5) Assessment of the potential of the development of the Ioannina area. (6) Inventory of water uses. (7) Formulation of pollution scenarios. (8) Fitting of a mathematical model for the pollution of the Kalamas River. (9) Conclusions regarding the water uses and the acceptable pollution loads.
Pleriminary study of Almopaios dam
Duration: July 2014–July 2014
Commissioned by: Roikos Consulting Engeineers S.A.
Investigation of the hydrographic network development in Mavro Vouno, Grammatiko, Attica, Greece
Duration: May 2012–June 2012
Budget: €15 000
Commissioned by: Perifereiako Tameio Anaptyxis Attikis
Contractors:
Study of the management of Kephisos
Duration: June 2009–April 2010
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Public Works
Contractors:
Delineation of the Arachthos River bed in the town of Arta
Duration: January 2009–February 2010
Commissioned by: Municipality of Arta
Contractors:
Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos
Duration: January 2009–June 2009
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: ECOS Consultants S.A.
Development of tools for the water resource management of the hydrological district of Aegean islands
Duration: January 2003–December 2008
Commissioned by: Ministry of Development
Contractors:
Water resource management of the Integrated Tourist Development Area in Messenia
Duration: January 2003–December 2005
Commissioned by: TEMES - Tourist Enterprises of Messinia
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos
Duration: September 2004–June 2005
Budget: €21 000
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractors:
Expertise for the quality control of engineering studies for the project "Water supply of Patra from Peiros and Parapeiros rivers"
Duration: October 2004–December 2004
Budget: €13 800
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractors:
Characterization of the size of Zaravina lake in Delvinaki area of the prefecture of Ioannina
Duration: September 2003–December 2004
Commissioned by: P. Mentzos
Contractor: D. Koutsoyiannis
Diversion of the Soulou Stream for the Development of Lignite Exploitations of the Public Power Corporation in the Mine of Southern Field of Region Kozani-Ptolemais
Duration: September 2004–October 2004
Budget: €3 000
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractors:
Analysis of the effects of the water transfer through the tunnel Fatnicko Polje - Bileca reservoir on the hydrologic regime of Bregava River in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Duration: April 2004–June 2004
Commissioned by: Energy Financing Team, Switzerland
Contractors:
Study of sewerage and wastewater treatment of the Municipality of Ellomeno in Leukas
Duration: January 2004–February 2004
Hydraulic study for drainage of the Kanavari-Dombrena-Prodromos road
Duration: January 2004–January 2004
Commissioned by: Prefectural Government of Boeotia
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Hydrological and hydraulic study for the flood protection of the new railway in the region of Sperhios river
Duration: October 2002–January 2003
Budget: €90 000
Commissioned by: ERGA OSE
Contractor: D. Soteropoulos
Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis
Study of the enhancement of water flow in Lethaeos and Ayiaminiotis rivers
Duration: May 2002–December 2002
Commissioned by: Municipality of Trikala
Contractor: I. Tzeranis
Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam"
Duration: October 2000–December 2002
Budget: €1 782 000
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Aposelemis Joint Venture
Flood Protection Works of Diakoniaris Stream, Preliminary Study
Duration: June 2002–July 2002
Budget: €5 000
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractors:
Collaborators:
Study of the Segment Antirrio-Kefalovriso of the Western Road Axis
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Commissioned by: General Secretariat of Public Works
Contractors:
Preliminary Water Supply Study of the Thermoelectric Livadia Power Plant
Duration: January 2001–December 2001
Contractor: Ypologistiki Michaniki
Consultative service for the spring "Kephalovriso" in Kaloskope
Duration: May 2000–December 2001
Commissioned by: Association of Kaloskopi Parnassidas
Engineering study for the licence of positioning of the Valorema Small Hydroelectric Project
Duration: September 2001–September 2001
Commissioned by: YDROSAR
Contractor: D. Argyropoulos
Study of the Potamos River, Corfu
Duration: January 2001–June 2001
Commissioned by: Anaptyxiaki Demou Kerkyreon
Contractor: M. Papakosta
Complementary study of environmental impacts from the diversion of Acheloos to Thessaly
Duration: December 2000–February 2001
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki
Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis
Management study of the river Boeoticos Kephisos and the lakes Hylike and Paralimne
Duration: January 1998–December 2000
Commissioned by: Division of Land Reclamation Works
Contractor: ETME- Antoniou Peppas and Co.
Compilation of specifications and requirements for the elaboration of environmental impact studies for various works
Duration: November 1999–December 1999
Contractor: ECOS Meletitiki
Estimation of losses from DXX canal in the irrigation network of Lower Acheloos
Duration: January 1999–December 1999
Commissioned by: Division of Land Reclamation Works
Contractor: NAMA
Concerted actions for the sector of environment in Santorine and Therasia islands
Duration: November 1998–December 1998
Commissioned by: Cohesion Fund EU
Contractors:
Engineering report of the Korinthos sewer system, Study of the Xerias creek, Introductory part
Duration: January 1998–December 1998
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki
Study of the water supply of the wider Rhodes from Gadouras dam: Aqueduct and water treatment plant
Duration: January 1998–December 1998
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractors:
Engineering study of the hydraulic project of old and new river bed of Peneios in Larisa
Duration: January 1997–December 1997
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractors:
General outline of the Acheloos River diversion project
Duration: January 1996–December 1996
Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works
Collaborators:
Water resources management of the Evinos river basin and hydrogeological study of the Evinos karstic system
Duration: January 1996–December 1996
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractors:
Assessment of the influence of forest fire of 1995 in the increase of sediment yield of the Megalo Rema in Raphena
Duration: June 1996–November 1996
Commissioned by: Prefectural Government of Eastern Attica
Integrated study of the environmental impacts from Acheloos diversion
Duration: September 1995–December 1995
Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works
Collaborators: Ydroexigiantiki
Study of environmental impacts from the small hydroelectric work in Metsovitikos river
Duration: January 1995–December 1995
Contractor: Epsilon
Arachthos River, Aghios Nicolaos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
Duration: November 1983–August 1994
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River
Duration: January 1991–December 1991
Commissioned by: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage
Contractors:
Master plan of the land reclamation works of the Arta plain
Duration: January 1990–December 1990
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agriculture
Contractors:
Engineering study of the regulation of the Kallithea Stream in Mytilene
Duration: January 1988–December 1988
Commissioned by: Ministry of National Education
Contractor: TENET
Study of the Faneromeni dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
Duration: January 1988–December 1988
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agriculture
Contractors:
Study of the Plakiotissa dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
Duration: January 1986–December 1986
Commissioned by: Ministry of Agriculture
Contractors:
Study of the wastewater treatment plant of Aghios Nicolaos, Crete
Duration: January 1984–December 1986
Commissioned by: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works
Contractor: Joint Venture Akvantan-Tapeions-Talios
Engineering study of the flood protection works in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin
Duration: January 1985–December 1985
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractor: D. Constantinidis
Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region
Duration: January 1982–December 1985
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractors:
Arachthos River, Steno - Kalaritikos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
Duration: January 1984–August 1984
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report
Duration: January 1982–June 1984
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Preliminary study of the water supply of Karystos and Kallianos municipalities from the Demosari springs
Duration: October 1982–May 1984
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Euboea
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Master plan of Dereio dam
Duration: January 1983–December 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractors:
Engineering study of sewer system and the wastewater treatment plant of Farsala
Duration: January 1983–December 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of Public Works
Contractor: METER
Preliminary study of the reconstruction of the state-run saltern of Mesi, Komotene
Duration: January 1983–December 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of the Industry
Contractors:
Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Master Plan
Duration: January 1983–October 1983
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Study for the restoration, fixing, protection and prominence of the archaeological monument of Knossos
Duration: January 1983–January 1983
Commissioned by: Ministry of Culture and Sciences
Contractor: I. Skandalis
Collaborators:
Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
Duration: April 1982–January 1983
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues
Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau
Duration: January 1982–December 1982
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractors:
Master plan of the foul sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
Duration: June 1982–December 1982
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Preveza
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Preliminary study of the sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
Duration: April 1981–June 1982
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Preveza
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Alternative studies
Duration: October 1981–March 1982
Commissioned by: Public Power Corporation
Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG)
Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Preliminary study
Duration: September 1981–December 1981
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias
Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos
Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan
Duration: August 1980–July 1981
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues
Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Alternative studies
Duration: January 1980–April 1980
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi
Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues
Engineering study of restoration of the water supply of Karpenesi
Duration: January 1979–December 1979
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Evritania
Contractor: A. Psilopoulos
Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality
Duration: January 1979–December 1979
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Evritania
Contractor: A. Psilopoulos
Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality
Duration: January 1978–December 1978
Commissioned by: Prefectural Fund of Eleia
Contractor: A. Psilopoulos
D. Koutsoyiannis, and G.-F. Sargentis, Entropy and wealth, Entropy, 23 (10), 1356, doi:10.3390/e23101356, 2021.
While entropy was introduced in the second half of the 19th century in the international vocabulary as a scientific term, in the 20th century it became common in colloquial use. Popular imagination has loaded “entropy” with almost every negative quality in the universe, in life and in society, with a dominant meaning of disorder and disorganization. Exploring the history of the term and many different approaches to it, we show that entropy has a universal stochastic definition, which is not disorder. Hence, we contend that entropy should be used as a mathematical (stochastic) concept as rigorously as possible, free of metaphoric meanings. The accompanying principle of maximum entropy, which lies behind the Second Law, gives explanatory and inferential power to the concept, and promotes entropy as the mother of creativity and evolution. As the social sciences are often contaminated by subjectivity and ideological influences, we try to explore whether maximum entropy, applied to the distribution of a wealth-related variable, namely annual income, can give an objective description. Using publicly available income data, we show that income distribution is consistent with the principle of maximum entropy. The increase in entropy is associated to increases in society’s wealth, yet a standardized form of entropy can be used to quantify inequality. Historically, technology has played a major role in the development of and increase in the entropy of income. Such findings are contrary to the theory of ecological economics and other theories that use the term entropy in a Malthusian perspective.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2150/1/documents/entropy-23-01356-v2_corrections.pdf (7388 KB)
N. Mamassis, K. Mazi, E. Dimitriou, D. Kalogeras, N. Malamos, S. Lykoudis, A. Koukouvinos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, I. Papageorgaki, A. Papadopoulos, Y. Panagopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. Vitantzakis, N. Kappos, D. Katsanos, B. Psiloglou, E. Rozos, T. Kopania, I. Koletsis, and A. D. Koussis, OpenHi.net: A synergistically built, national-scale infrastructure for monitoring the surface waters of Greece, Water, 13 (19), 2779, doi:10.3390/w13192779, 2021.
The large-scale surface-water monitoring infrastructure for Greece Open Hydrosystem Information Network (Openhi.net) is presented in this paper. Openhi.net provides free access to water data, incorporating existing networks that manage their own databases. In its pilot phase, Openhi.net operates three telemetric networks for monitoring the quantity and the quality of surface waters, as well as meteorological and soil variables. Aspiring members must also offer their data for public access. A web-platform was developed for on-line visualization, processing and managing telemetric data. A notification system was also designed and implemented for inspecting the current values of variables. The platform is built upon the web 2.0 technology that exploits the ever-increasing capabilities of browsers to handle dynamic data as a time series. A GIS component offers web-services relevant to geo-information for water bodies. Accessing, querying and downloading geographical data for watercourses (segment length, slope, name, stream order) and for water basins (area, mean elevation, mean slope, basin order, slope, mean CN-curve number) are provided by Web Map Services and Web Feature Services. A new method for estimating the streamflow from measurements of the surface velocity has been advanced as well to reduce hardware expenditures, a low-cost ‘prototype’ hydro-telemetry system (at about half the cost of a comparable commercial system) was designed, constructed and installed at six monitoring stations of Openhi.net.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2147/1/documents/water-13-02779-v2.pdf (3567 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, G.-F. Sargentis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial Hurst–Kolmogorov Clustering, Encyclopedia, 1 (4), 1010–1025, doi:10.3390/encyclopedia1040077, 2021.
The stochastic analysis in the scale domain (instead of the traditional lag or frequency domains) is introduced as a robust means to identify, model and simulate the Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics, ranging from small (fractal) to large scales exhibiting the clustering behavior (else known as the Hurst phenomenon or long-range dependence). The HK clustering is an attribute of a multidimensional (1D, 2D, etc.) spatio-temporal stationary stochastic process with an arbitrary marginal distribution function, and a fractal behavior on small spatio-temporal scales of the dependence structure and a power-type on large scales, yielding a high probability of low- or high-magnitude events to group together in space and time. This behavior is preferably analyzed through the second-order statistics, and in the scale domain, by the stochastic metric of the climacogram, i.e., the variance of the averaged spatio-temporal process vs. spatio-temporal scale.
D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Dimitriadis, Towards generic simulation for demanding stochastic processes, Sci, 3, 34, doi:10.3390/sci3030034, 2021.
We outline and test a new methodology for genuine simulation of stochastic processes with any dependence structure and any marginal distribution. We reproduce time dependence with a generalized, time symmetric or asymmetric, moving-average scheme. This implements linear filtering of non-Gaussian white noise, with the weights of the filter determined by analytical equations, in terms of the autocovariance of the process. We approximate the marginal distribu-tion of the process, irrespective of its type, using a number of its cumulants, which in turn deter-mine the cumulants of white noise, in a manner that can readily support the generation of random numbers from that approximation, so that it be applicable for stochastic simulation. The simulation method is genuine as it uses the process of interest directly, without any transformation (e.g., normalization). We illustrate the method in a number of synthetic and real-world applications, with either persistence or antipersistence, and with non-Gaussian marginal distributions that are bounded, thus making the problem more demanding. These include distributions bounded from both sides, such as uniform, and bounded from below, such as exponential and Pareto, possibly having a discontinuity at the origin (intermittence). All examples studied show the satisfactory performance of the method.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2137/1/documents/sci-03-00034-v3.pdf (3002 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, P. Siamparina, G.-K. Sakki, A. Efstratiadis, M. Chiotinis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Agricultural land or photovoltaic parks? The water–energy–food nexus and land development perspectives in the Thessaly plain, Greece, Sustainability, 13 (16), 8935, doi:10.3390/su13168935, 2021.
Water, energy, land, and food are vital elements with multiple interactions. In this context, the concept of a water–energy–food (WEF) nexus was manifested as a natural resource management approach, aiming at promoting sustainable development at the international, national, or local level and eliminating the negative effects that result from the use of each of the four resources against the other three. At the same time, the transition to green energy through the application of renewable energy technologies is changing and perplexing the relationships between the constituent elements of the nexus, introducing new conflicts, particularly related to land use for energy production vs. food. Specifically, one of the most widespread “green” technologies is photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, now being the third foremost renewable energy source in terms of global installed capacity. However, the growing development of PV systems results in ever expanding occupation of agricultural lands, which are most advantageous for siting PV parks. Using as study area the Thessaly Plain, the largest agricultural area in Greece, we investigate the relationship between photovoltaic power plant development and food production in an attempt to reveal both their conflicts and their synergies.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2136/1/documents/sustainability-13-08935.pdf (2709 KB)
A. N. Angelakis, M. Valipour, A.T. Ahmed, V. Tzanakakis, N.V. Paranychianakis, J. Krasilnikoff, R. Drusiani, L.W. Mays, F. El Gohary, D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Khan, and L.J. Del Giacco, Water conflicts: from ancient to modern times and in the future, Sustainability, 13 (8), 4237, doi:10.3390/su13084237, 2021.
Since prehistoric times, water conflicts have occurred as a result of a wide range of tensions and/or violence, which have rarely taken the form of traditional warfare waged over water resources alone. Instead, water has historically been a (re)source of tension and a factor in conflicts that start for other reasons. In some cases, water was used directly as a weapon through its ability to cause damage through deprivation or erosion or water resources of enemy populations and their armies. However, water conflicts, both past and present, arise for several reasons; including territorial disputes, fight for resources, and strategic advantage. The main reasons of water conflicts are usually delimitation of boundaries, waterlogging (e.g., dams and lakes), diversion of rivers flow, running water, food, and political distresses. In recent decades, the number of human casualties caused by water conflicts is more than that of natural disasters, indicating the importance of emerging trends on water wars in the world. This paper presents arguments, fights, discourses, and conflicts around water from ancient times to the present. This diachronic survey attempts to provide water governance alternatives for the current and future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2119/1/documents/sustainability-13-04237-v2.pdf (3322 KB)
S. Vavoulogiannis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Multiscale temporal irreversibility of streamflow and its stochastic modelling, Hydrology, 8 (2), 63, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020063, 2021.
We investigate the impact of time's arrow on the hourly streamflow process. Although time asymmetry, i.e., temporal irreversibility, has been previously implemented in stochastics, it has only recently attracted attention in the hydrological literature. Relevant studies have shown that the time asymmetry of the streamflow process is manifested at scales up to several days and vanishes at larger scales. The latter highlights the need to reproduce it in flood simulations of fine-scale resolution. To this aim, we develop an enhancement of a recently proposed simulation algorithm for irreversible processes, based on an asymmetric moving average (AMA) scheme that allows for the explicit preservation of time asymmetry at two or more timescales. The method is successfully applied to a large hourly streamflow time series from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) database, with time asymmetry prominent at time scales up to four days.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2116/1/documents/hydrology-08-00063-v2.pdf (2541 KB)
L. Katikas, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Kontos, and P. Kyriakidis, A stochastic simulation scheme for the long-term persistence, heavy-tailed and double periodic behavior of observational and reanalysis wind time-series, Applied Energy, 295, 116873, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116873, 2021.
Lacking coastal and offshore wind speed time series of sufficient length, reanalysis data and wind speed models serve as the primary sources of valuable information for wind power management. In this study, long-length observational records and modelled data from Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses system are collected, analyzed and modelled. The first stage refers to the statistical analysis of the time series marginal structure in terms of the fitting accuracy, the distributions’ tails behavior, extremes response and the power output errors, using Weibull distribution and three parameter Weibull-related distributions (Burr Type III and XII, Generalized Gamma). In the second stage, the co-located samples in time and space are compared in order to investigate the reanalysis data performance. In the last stage, the stochastic generation mathematical framework is applied based on a Generalized Hurst-Kolmogorov process embedded in a Symmetric-Moving-Average scheme, which is used for the simulation of a wind process while preserving explicitly the marginal moments, wind’s intermittency and long-term persistence. Results indicate that Burr and Generalized Gamma distribution could be successfully used for wind resource assessment, although, the latter emerged enhanced performance in most of the statistical tests. Moreover, the credibility of the reanalysis data is questionable due to increased bias and root mean squared errors, however, high-order statistics along with the long-term persistence are thoroughly preserved. Eventually, the simplicity and the flexibility of the stochastic generation scheme to reproduce the seasonal and diurnal wind characteristics by preserving the long-term dependence structure are highlighted.
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P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, T. Iliopoulou, and P. Papanicolaou, A global-scale investigation of stochastic similarities in marginal distribution and dependence structure of key hydrological-cycle processes, Hydrology, 8 (2), 59, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020059, 2021.
To seek stochastic analogies in key processes related to the hydrological cycle, an extended collection of several billions of data values from hundred thousands of worldwide stations is used in this work. The examined processes are the near-surface hourly temperature, dew point, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and atmospheric wind speed, as well as the hourly/daily streamflow and precipitation. Through the use of robust stochastic metrics such as the K-moments and a secondorder climacogram (i.e., variance of the averaged process vs. scale), it is found that several stochastic similarities exist in both the marginal structure, in terms of the first four moments, and in the secondorder dependence structure. Stochastic similarities are also detected among the examined processes, forming a specific hierarchy among their marginal and dependence structures, similar to the one in the hydrological cycle. Finally, similarities are also traced to the isotropic and nearly Gaussian turbulence, as analyzed through extensive lab recordings of grid turbulence and of turbulent buoyant jet along the axis, which resembles the turbulent shear and buoyant regime that dominates and drives the hydrological-cycle processes in the boundary layer. The results are found to be consistent with other studies in literature such as solar radiation, ocean waves, and evaporation, and they can be also justified by the principle of maximum entropy. Therefore, they allow for the development of a universal stochastic view of the hydrological-cycle under the Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, with marginal structures extending from nearly Gaussian to Pareto-type tail behavior, and with dependence structures exhibiting roughness (fractal) behavior at small scales, long-term persistence at large scales, and a transient behavior at intermediate scales.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2114/1/documents/hydrology-08-00059-v5.pdf (7374 KB)
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G.-F. Sargentis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stratification: An entropic view of society's structure, World, 2, 153–174, doi:10.3390/world2020011, 2021.
In human societies, we observe a wide range of types of stratification, i.e., in terms of financial class, political power, level of education, sanctity, and military force. In financial, political, and social sciences, stratification is one of the most important issues and tools as the Lorenz Curve and the Gini Coefficient have been developed to describe some of its aspects. Stratification is greatly dependent on the access of people to wealth. By “wealth”, we mean the quantified prosperity which increases the life expectancy of people. Prosperity is also connected to the water‐food‐energy nexus which is necessary for human survival. Analyzing proxies of the water‐food‐energy nexus, we suggest that the best proxy for prosperity is energy, which is closely related to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy. In order to describe the dynamics of social stratification, we formulate an entropic view of wealth in human societies. An entropic approach to income distribution, approximated as available energy in prehistoric societies, till present‐day economies, shows that stratification can be viewed as a stochastic process subject to the principle of maximum entropy and occurring when limits to the wealth of society are set, either by the political and economic system and/or by the limits of available technology.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2107/1/documents/world-02-00011-v3.pdf (10384 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Rethinking climate, climate change, and their relationship with water, Water, 13 (6), 849, doi:10.3390/w13060849, 2021.
We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate was established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acts upon it. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this varia-bility, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleo-nasm as climate, like weather, has been ever-changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing true roles and cau-sality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate, and not the opposite.
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Blog discussions about this article
- Rethinking Climate, Climate Change, and Their Relationship with Water by Charles Rotter, 2020-10-05 (Watts Up With That?)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2098/1/documents/water-13-00849-v4.pdf (5096 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Advances in stochastics of hydroclimatic extremes, L'Acqua, 2021 (1), 23–32, 2021.
The 21st century has been marked by a substantial progress in hydroclimatic data collection and access to them, accompanied by regression in methodologies to study and interpret the behaviour of natural processes and in particular of extremes thereof. The developing culture of prophesising the future, guided by deterministic climate modelling approaches, has seriously affected hydrology. Therefore, aspired advances are related to abandoning the certainties of deterministic approaches and returning to stochastic descriptions, seeking in the latter theoretical consistency and optimal use of available data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2092/1/documents/2021_LACQUA_DK.pdf (8789 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, From mythology to science: the development of scientific hydrological concepts in the Greek antiquity and its relevance to modern hydrology, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 2419–2444, doi:10.5194/hess-25-2419-2021, 2021.
Whilst hydrology is a Greek term, it has not been in use in the Classical literature but much later, during the Renaissance, in its Latin version, hydrologia. On the other hand, Greek natural philosophers created robust knowledge in related scientific areas, to which they gave names such as meteorology, climate and hydraulics. These terms are now in common use internationally. Within these areas, Greek natural philosophers laid the foundation of hydrological concepts and the hydrological cycle in its entirety. Knowledge development was brought about by search for technological solutions to practical problems, as well as by scientific curiosity to explain natural phenomena. While initial explanations belong to the sphere of mythology, the rise of philosophy was accompanied by attempts to provide scientific descriptions of the phenomena. It appears that the first geophysical problem formulated in scientific terms was the explanation of the flood regime of the Nile, then regarded as a paradox because of the spectacular difference from the river flow regime in Greece and other Mediterranean regions, i.e., the fact that the Nile flooding occurs in summer when in most of the Mediterranean the rainfall is very low. While some of the early attempts to explain it were influenced by Homer’s mythical view (archaic period), eventually, Aristotle was able to formulate a correct hypothesis, which he tested through what it appears to be the first in history scientific expedition, in the turn from the Classical to Hellenistic period. This confirms the fact that the hydrological cycle was well understood during the Classical period yet it poses the question why Aristotle’s correct explanation had not been accepted and, instead, ancient and modern mythical views had been preferred up to the 18th century.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2087/1/documents/hess-25-2419-2021.pdf (30835 KB)
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic view of varying styles in art paintings, Heritage, 4, 21, doi:10.3390/heritage4010021, 2021.
A physical process is characterized as complex when it is difficult to analyze and explain in a simple way, and even more difficult to predict. The complexity within an art painting is expected to be high, possibly comparable to that of nature. Herein, we apply a 2D stochastic methodology to images of both portrait photography and artistic portraits, the latter belonging to different genres of art, with the aim to better understand their variability in quantitative terms. To quantify the dependence structure and variability, we estimate the Hurst parameter, which is a common dependence metric for hydrometeorological processes. We also seek connections between the identified stochastic patterns and the desideratum that each art movement aimed to express. Results show remarkable stochastic similarities between portrait paintings, linked to philosophical, cultural and theological characteristics of each period.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2086/1/documents/heritage-04-00021.pdf (3242 KB)
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G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Landscape planning of infrastructure through focus points’ clustering analysis. Case study: Plastiras artificial lake (Greece), Infrastructures, 6 (1), 12, doi:10.3390/infrastructures6010012, 2021.
Even though landscape quality is largely a subjective issue, the integration of infrastructure into landscapes has been identified as a key element of sustainability. In a spatial planning context, the landscape impacts that are generated by infrastructures are commonly quantified through visibility analysis. In this study, we develop a new method of visibility analysis and apply it in a case study of a reservoir (Plastiras dam in Greece). The methodology combines common visibility analysis with a stochastic tool for visual-impacts evaluation; points that generate high visual contrasts in landscapes are considered Focus Points (FPs) and their clustering in landscapes is analyzed trying to answer two questions: (1) How does the clustering of Focus Points (FPs) impact the aesthetic value of the landscape? (2) How can the visual impacts of these FPs be evaluated? Visual clustering is calculated utilizing a stochastic analysis of generated Zones of Theoretical Visibility. Based on the results, we argue that if the visual effect of groups of FPs is positive, then the optimal sitting of FPs should be in the direction of faint clustering, whereas if the effect is negative, the optimal sitting of FPs should be directed to intense clustering. In order to optimize the landscape integration of infrastructure, this method could be a useful analytical tool for environmental impact assessment or a monitoring tool for a project’s managing authorities. This is demonstrated through the case study of Plastiras’ reservoir, where the clustering of positively perceived FPs is found to be an overlooked attribute of its perception as a highly sustainable infrastructure project.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2083/1/documents/infrastructures-06-00012-v2.pdf (5634 KB)
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A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Generalized storage-reliability-yield framework for hydroelectric reservoirs, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66 (4), 580–599, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1886299, 2021.
Although storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relationships have been widely used in the design and planning of water supply reservoirs, their application in hydroelectricity is practically nil. Here, we revisit the SRY analysis and seek its generic configuration for hydroelectric reservoirs, following a stochastic simulation approach. After defining key concepts and tools of conventional SRY studies, we adapt them for hydropower systems, which are subject to several peculiarities. We illustrate that under some reasonable assumptions, the problem can be substantially simplified. Major innovations are the storage-head-energy conversion via the use of a sole parameter, representing the reservoir geometry, and the development of an empirical statistical metric expressing the reservoir performance on the basis of the simulated energy-probability curve. The proposed framework is applied to numerous hypothetical reservoirs at three river sites in Greece, using monthly synthetic inflow data, to provide empirical expressions of reliable energy as a function of reservoir storage and geometry.
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K. Glynis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of daily air temperature extremes from a global ground station network, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, doi:10.1007/s00477-021-02002-3, 2021.
Near-surface air temperature is one of the most widely studied hydroclimatic variables, as both its regular and extremal behaviors are of paramount importance to human life. Following the global warming observed in the past decades and the advent of the anthropogenic climate change debate, interest in temperature’s variability and extremes has been rising. It has since become clear that it is imperative not only to identify the exact shape of the temperature’s distribution tails, but also to understand their temporal evolution. Here, we investigate the stochastic behavior of near-surface air temperature using the newly developed estimation tool of Knowable (K-)moments. K-moments, because of their property to substitute higher-order deviations from the mean with the distribution function, enable reliable estimation and an effective alternative to order statistics and, particularly for the outliers-prone distribution tails. We compile a large set of daily timeseries (30–200 years) of average, maximum and minimum air temperature, which we standardize with respect to the monthly variability of each record. Our focus is placed on the maximum and minimum temperatures, because they are more reliably measured than the average, yet very rarely analyzed in the literature. We examine segments of each timeseries using consecutive rolling 30-year periods, from which we extract extreme values corresponding to specific return period levels. Results suggest that the average and minimum temperature tend to increase, while overall the maximum temperature is slightly decreasing. Furthermore, we model the temperature timeseries as a filtered Hurst-Kolmogorov process and use Monte Carlo simulation to produce synthetic records with similar stochastic properties through the explicit Symmetric Moving Average scheme. We subsequently evaluate how the patterns observed in the longest records can be reproduced by the synthetic series.
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G.-F. Sargentis, T. Iliopoulou, S. Sigourou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evolution of clustering quantified by a stochastic method — Case studies on natural and human social structures, Sustainability, 12 (19), 7972, doi:10.3390/su12197972, 2020.
Clustering structures appearing from small to large scales are ubiquitous in the physical world. Interestingly, clustering structures are omnipresent in human history too, ranging from the mere organization of life in societies (e.g., urbanization) to the development of large-scale infrastructure and policies for meeting organizational needs. Indeed, in its struggle for survival and progress, mankind has perpetually sought the benefits of unions. At the same time, it is acknowledged that as the scale of the projects grows, the cost of the delivered products is reduced while their quantities are maximized. Thus, large-scale infrastructures and policies are considered advantageous and are constantly being pursued at even great scales. This work develops a general method to quantify the temporal evolution of clustering, using a stochastic computational tool called 2D-C, which is applicable for the study of both natural and human social spatial structures. As case studies, the evolution of the structure of the universe, of ecosystems and of human clustering structures such as urbanization, are investigated using novel sources of spatial information. Results suggest the clear existence both of periods of clustering and declustering in the natural world and in the human social structures; yet clustering is the general trend. In view of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, societal challenges arising from large-scale clustering structures are discussed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2066/1/documents/sustainability-12-07972.pdf (8123 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/19/7972/htm
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Atmospheric temperature and CO₂: Hen-or-egg causality?, Sci, 2 (4), 83, doi:10.3390/sci2040083, 2020.
It is common knowledge that increasing CO₂ concentration plays a major role in enhancement of the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. The purpose of this study is to complement the conventional and established theory that increased CO₂ concentration due to human emissions causes an increase of temperature, by considering the reverse causality. Since increased temperature causes an increase in CO₂ concentration, the relationship of atmospheric CO₂ and temperature may qualify as belonging to the category of “hen-or-egg” problems, where it is not always clear which of two interrelated events is the cause and which the effect. We examine the relationship of global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at the monthly time step, covering the time interval 1980–2019, in which reliable instrumental measurements are available. While both causality directions exist, the results of our study support the hypothesis that the dominant direction is T → CO₂. Changes in CO₂ follow changes in T by about six months on a monthly scale, or about one year on an annual scale. We attempt to interpret this mechanism by involving biochemical reactions, as at higher temperatures soil respiration, and hence CO₂ emission, are increasing.
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Blog discussions about this article
- New Study Finds Robust Statistical Probability Temperature Drives CO2 Changes, Upending ‘Scientific Perception’ by Kenneth Richard, 2020-10-05 (NoTricksZone)
- New Study: Strong Likelihood That Temperature Drives CO2 Changes—Reproduced #1 as #2 with comments by Kenneth Richard, 2020-10-05 (Climate Dispatch)
- Reproduced #1 in newscats.org
- Reproduced #2 in altnews.org
- Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2 by Geir Aaslid, 2020-10-11 (Klimarealistene)
- IPCC har förväxlat orsak och verkan, temperaturen driver luftens halt av CO₂ , 2020-10-13 (Klimatsans)
- Shock Study: CO2 Climate Theory Exposed During COVID Lockdown, by John O'Sullivan, 2020-10-13 (Principia Scientific)
- E’ nato prima l’uovo o la gallina?, by Donato Barone, 2020-10-20 (Climatemonitor)
- Temperature and Carbon Dioxide: Defying Alarmists, by Jack Dini, 2020-10-22 (Canada Free Press)
- Prima l’uovo o la gallina? 2.a parte: Una visione un po’ diversa, by Franco Zavatti, 2020-10-24 (Climatemonitor)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2064/1/documents/sci-02-00083-v2.pdf (5476 KB)
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See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2413-4155/2/4/83
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R. Ioannidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A review of land use, visibility and public perception of renewable energy in the context of landscape impact, Applied Energy, 276, 115367, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115367, 2020.
Landscape impacts associated with aesthetics have been a persistent cause of opposition against renewable energy projects. However, the current uncertainty over the spatial extents and the rationality of reported impacts impedes the development of optimal strategies for their mitigation. In this paper, a typology of landscape impacts is formed for hydroelectric, wind and solar energy through the review of three metrics that have been used extensively for impact-assessment: land use, visibility and public perception. Additionally, a generic landscape-impact ranking is formed, based on data from realized projects, demonstrating that hydroelectric energy has been the least impactful to landscapes per unit energy generation, followed by solar and wind energy, respectively. More importantly, the analysis highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each technology, in a landscape impact context, and demonstrates that, depending on landscape attributes, any technology can potentially be the least impactful. Finally, a holistic approach is proposed for future research and policy for the integration of renewable energy to landscapes, introducing the maximum utilization of the advantages of each technology as an additional strategy in an effort to expand beyond the mitigation of negative impacts.
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Z. W. Kundzewicz, I. Pińskwar, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Variability of global mean annual temperature is significantly influenced by the rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillations, Science of the Total Environment, 747, 141256, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141256, 2020.
While global warming has been evolving over several decades, in particular years there have been considerable deviations of global temperature from the underlying trend. These could be explained by climate variability patterns and, in particular, by the major interplays of atmospheric and oceanic processes that generate variations in the global climatic system. Here we show, in a simple and straightforward way, that a rhythm of the major ocean-atmosphere oscillations, such as the ENSO and IPO in the Pacific as well as the AMO in the Atlantic, is indeed meaningfully influencing the global mean annual temperature. We construct time series of residuals of the global temperature from the medium-term (5-year) running averages and show that these largely follow the rhythm of residuals of three basic ocean-atmosphere oscillation modes (ENSO, IPO and AMO) from the 5-year running averages. We find meaningful correlations between analyzed climate variability and deviations of global mean annual temperature residuals that are robust across various datasets and assumptions and explain over 70% of the annual temperature variability in terms of residuals from medium-term averages.
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, E. Frangedaki, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Optimal utilization of water resources for local communities in mainland Greece (case study of Karyes, Peloponnese), Procedia Manufacturing, 44, 253–260, doi:10.1016/j.promfg.2020.02.229, 2020.
Water is the basis of our civilization and the development of society is intertwined with the exploitation of water resources in various scales, from a well dug to irrigate a garden, to a large dam providing water and energy for a large area. However, for remote mountainous areas, intermittent natural water resources and high seasonal demand the above tasks become challenging. Here we discuss various alternative management options and appropriate solutions on how to exploit water resources meeting the above restrictions under limited infrastructure budgets. As a case study we examine the area of Karyes in Peloponnese that meets the above criteria, exploring various solutions to satisfy the water demand.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2047/1/documents/1-s2.0-S2351978920308167-main.pdf (1660 KB)
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T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Projecting the future of rainfall extremes: better classic than trendy, Journal of Hydrology, 588, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125005, 2020.
Non-stationarity approaches have been increasingly popular in hydrology, reflecting scientific concerns regarding intensification of the water cycle due to global warming. A considerable share of relevant studies is dominated by the practice of identifying linear trends in data through in-sample analysis. In this work, we reframe the problem of trend identification using the out-of-sample predictive performance of trends as a reference point. We devise a systematic methodological framework in which linear trends are compared to simpler mean models, based on their performance in predicting climatic-scale (30-year) annual rainfall indices, i.e. maxima, totals, wet-day average and probability dry, from long-term daily records. The models are calibrated in two different schemes: block-moving, i.e. fitted on the recent 30 years of data, obtaining the local trend and local mean, and global-moving, i.e. fitted on the whole period known to an observer moving in time, thus obtaining the global trend and global mean. The investigation of empirical records spanning over 150 years suggests that a great degree of variability has been ever present in the rainfall process, leaving small potential for long-term predictability. The local mean model ranks first in terms of average predictive performance, followed by the global mean and the global trend, in decreasing order of performance, while the local trend model ranks last among the models, showing the worst performance overall. Parallel experiments from synthetic timeseries characterized by persistence corroborated this finding, suggesting that future long-term variability of persistent processes is better captured using parsimonious features of the past. In line with the empirical findings, it is shown that, prediction-wise, simple is preferable to trendy.
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Aesthetical issues of Leonardo Da Vinci’s and Pablo Picasso’s paintings with stochastic evaluation, Heritage, 3 (2), 283–305, doi:10.3390/heritage3020017, 2020.
A physical process is characterized as complex when it is difficult to analyze or explain in a simple way. The complexity within an art painting is expected to be high, possibly comparable to that of nature. Therefore, constructions of artists (e.g., paintings, music, literature, etc.) are expected to be also of high complexity since they are produced by numerous human (e.g., logic, instinct, emotions, etc.) and non-human (e.g., quality of paints, paper, tools, etc.) processes interacting with each other in a complex manner. The result of the interaction among various processes is not a white-noise behavior, but one where clusters of high or low values of quantified attributes appear in a non-predictive manner, thus highly increasing the uncertainty and the variability. In this work, we analyze stochastic patterns in terms of the dependence structure of art paintings of Da Vinci and Picasso with a stochastic 2D tool and investigate the similarities or differences among the artworks.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2043/1/documents/heritage-03-00017.pdf (9130 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3899–3932, doi:10.5194/hess-24-3899-2020, 2020.
As a result of technological advances in monitoring atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere, as well as in data management and processing, several data bases have become freely available. These can be exploited in revisiting the global hydrological cycle with the aim, on the one hand, to better quantify it and, on the other hand, to test the established climatological hypotheses, according to which the hydrological cycle should be intensifying because of global warming. By processing the information from gridded ground observations, satellite data and reanalyses, it turns out that the established hypotheses are not confirmed. Instead of monotonic trends, there appear fluctuations from intensification to deintensification and vice versa, with deintensification prevailing in the 21st century. The water balance on land and sea appears to be lower than the standard figures of literature, but with greater variability on climatic time scales, which is in accordance with Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics. The most obvious anthropogenic signal in the hydrological cycle appears to be the overexploitation of groundwater, which has a visible effect on sea level rise. Melting of glaciers has an equal effect, but in this case it is not known which part is anthropogenic, as studies on polar regions attribute mass loss mostly to ice dynamics.
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External reviews, comments and forum discussions about this article
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data by Andrew Montford, 2020-04-02 (The Global Warming Policy Forum—GWPF)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #2 with comments by Paul Homewood, 2020-04-02 (Not a Lot of People Know That)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #3 with comments,, 2020-04-02 (Climate Change Dispatch)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Comments for #1, 2020-04-02 (Debate Politics)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #5, 2020-04-02 (Before It's News)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #6, 2020-04-02 (Roald J. Larsen)
- Bandwagon Of Doom Washed Away By Tidal Wave Of Data—Reproduced #1 as #7, 2020-04-02 (Iowa Climate Science Education)
- Week in review – climate science edition (with comments) by Judith Curry, 2020-04-03 (Climate Etc.)
- Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #405) by Ken Haapala, 2020-04-06 (Watts Up With That?)
- Eine Waggonladung Untergang von Daten-Flutwelle hinweg gespült—German translation of #1, 2020-04-17 (EIKE – Europäisches Institut für Klima & Energie)
- The 'Hydro-illogical cycle' by John Robson, 2020-04-15 (Climate Discussion Nexus)
- Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #406) by Ken Haapala, 2020-04-20 (Watts Up With That?)
- The Sound Of Settled Science (with comments) (Small Dead Animals)
- 観測データと気候モデルの結果が合わない / English translation: Observation data and climate model results do not match (International Environment and Economy Institute)
- Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying? by Charles Rotter with comments (Watts Up With That?).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2042/1/documents/hess-24-3899-2020.pdf (16336 KB)
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd: A large-sample experiment at monthly timescale, Advances in Water Resources, 136, 103470, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103470, 2020.
Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly time series observed in 270 catchments in the United States to explore the performances provided by an ensemble learning post-processing methodology for issuing probabilistic hydrological predictions. This methodology allows the utilization of flexible quantile regression models for exploiting information about the hydrological model's error. Its key differences with respect to basic two-stage hydrological post-processing methodologies using the same type of regression models are that (a) instead of a single point hydrological prediction it generates a large number of “sister predictions” (yet using a single hydrological model), and that (b) it relies on the concept of combining probabilistic predictions via simple quantile averaging. A major hydrological modelling challenge is obtaining probabilistic predictions that are simultaneously reliable and associated to prediction bands that are as narrow as possible; therefore, we assess both these desired properties of the predictions by computing their coverage probabilities, average widths and average interval scores. The results confirm the usefulness of the proposed methodology and its larger robustness with respect to basic two-stage post-processing methodologies. Finally, this methodology is empirically proven to harness the “wisdom of the crowd” in terms of average interval score, i.e., the average of the individual predictions combined by this methodology scores no worse –usually better− than the average of the scores of the individual predictions.
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G. Papacharalampous, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd: Methodology development and investigation using toy models, Advances in Water Resources, 136, 103471, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103471, 2020.
We introduce an ensemble learning post-processing methodology for probabilistic hydrological modelling. This methodology generates numerous point predictions by applying a single hydrological model, yet with different parameter values drawn from the respective simulated posterior distribution. We call these predictions “sister predictions”. Each sister prediction extending in the period of interest is converted into a probabilistic prediction using information about the hydrological model's errors. This information is obtained from a preceding period for which observations are available, and is exploited using a flexible quantile regression model. All probabilistic predictions are finally combined via simple quantile averaging to produce the output probabilistic prediction. The idea is inspired by the ensemble learning methods originating from the machine learning literature. The proposed methodology offers larger robustness in performance than basic post-processing methodologies using a single hydrological point prediction. It is also empirically proven to “harness the wisdom of the crowd” in terms of average interval score, i.e., the obtained quantile predictions score no worse –usually better− than the average score of the combined individual predictions. This proof is provided within toy examples, which can be used for gaining insight on how the methodology works and under which conditions it can optimally convert point hydrological predictions to probabilistic ones. A large-scale hydrological application is made in a companion paper.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Simple stochastic simulation of time irreversible and reversible processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65 (4), 536–551, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1705302, 2020.
As time irreversibility of streamflow is marked for time scales up to several days, while common stochastic generation methods are good only for time symmetric processes, the need for new methods to handle irreversibility, particularly in flood simulations, has been recently highlighted. As a generic solution to this problem, an analytical exact method based on an asymmetric moving average (AMA) scheme is proposed. The method is studied theoretically in its general setting, as well as in its most interesting special cases, and is successfully applied to streamflow generation at hourly scale.
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eprint: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/7B2PCSMKFDXRMS87PJ4X/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2019.1705302
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R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, C. Iliopoulou, L. Katikas, A. Petsou, M.-E. Merakou, M.-E. Asimomiti, N. Pelekanos, G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, C. Plati, E. Vlahogianni, K. Kepaptsoglou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Solar-powered bus route: introducing renewable energy into a university campus transport system, Advances in Geosciences, 49, doi:10.5194/adgeo-49-215-2019, 2019.
We investigate the application of a solar-powered bus route to a small-scale transportation system, as such of a university campus. In particular, we explore the prospect of replacing conventional fossil fuel buses by electric buses powered by solar energy and electricity provided by the central grid. To this end, we employ GIS mapping technology to estimate the solar radiation at the university campus and, accordingly, we investigate three different scenarios for harnessing the available solar power: (1) solar panels installed on the roof of bus stop shelters, (2) solar panels installed at an unused open space in the university, and (3) solar roads, i.e. roads constructed by photovoltaic (PV) materials. For each of the three scenarios, we investigate the optimal technical configuration, the resulting energy generation, as well as the capital cost for application in the case of NTUA campus in Athens (Greece). The preliminary feasibility analysis showcases that all three scenarios contribute to satisfying transportation demand, proportionately to their size, with scenario (2) presenting the lowest capital cost in relation to energy generation. Therefore, we further explore this scenario by simulating its daily operation including the actions of buying and selling energy to the central grid, when there is energy deficit or surplus, respectively. A sensitivity analysis is carried out in order to ascertain the optimal size of the solar panel installation in relation to profit and reliability. Overall, results indicate that, albeit the high capital costs, solar-powered transportation schemes present a viable alternative for replacing conventional buses at the studied location, especially considering conventional PV panels. We note that present results heavily depend on the choice of capacity factors of PV materials, which differ among technologies. Yet, as capacity factors of PV panels are currently increasing, the studied schemes might be more promising in the future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2016/1/documents/adgeo-49-215-2019.pdf (8167 KB)
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, A. Langousis, A. W. Jayawardena, B. Sivakumar, N. Mamassis, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Probabilistic hydrological post-processing at scale: Why and how to apply machine-learning quantile regression algorithms, Water, doi:10.3390/w11102126, 2019.
We conduct a large-scale benchmark experiment aiming to advance the use of machine-learning quantile regression algorithms for probabilistic hydrological post-processing “at scale” within operational contexts. The experiment is set up using 34-year-long daily time series of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and streamflow for 511 catchments over the contiguous United States. Point hydrological predictions are obtained using the Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier (GR4J) hydrological model and exploited as predictor variables within quantile regression settings. Six machine-learning quantile regression algorithms and their equal-weight combiner are applied to predict conditional quantiles of the hydrological model errors. The individual algorithms are quantile regression, generalized random forests for quantile regression, generalized random forests for quantile regression emulating quantile regression forests, gradient boosting machine, model-based boosting with linear models as base learners and quantile regression neural networks. The conditional quantiles of the hydrological model errors are transformed to conditional quantiles of daily streamflow, which are finally assessed using proper performance scores and benchmarking. The assessment concerns various levels of predictive quantiles and central prediction intervals, while it is made both independently of the flow magnitude and conditional upon this magnitude. Key aspects of the developed methodological framework are highlighted, and practical recommendations are formulated. In technical hydro-meteorological applications, the algorithms should be applied preferably in a way that maximizes the benefits and reduces the risks from their use. This can be achieved by (i) combining algorithms (e.g., by averaging their predictions) and (ii) integrating algorithms within systematic frameworks (i.e., by using the algorithms according to their identified skills), as our large-scale results point out.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2001/1/documents/water-11-02126.pdf (6451 KB)
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F. Lombardo, F. Napolitano, F. Russo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the exact distribution of correlated extremes in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 55 (12), 10405–10423, doi:10.1029/2019WR025547, 2019.
The analysis of hydrological hazards usually relies on asymptotic results of extreme value theory (EVT), which commonly deals with block maxima (BM) or peaks over threshold (POT) data series. However, data quality and quantity of BM and POT hydrological records do not usually fulfill the basic requirements of EVT, thus making its application questionable and results prone to high uncertainty and low reliability. An alternative approach to better exploit the available information of continuous time series and non-extreme records is to build the exact distribution of maxima (i.e., non-asymptotic extreme value distributions) from a sequence of low-threshold POT. Practical closed-form results for this approach do exist only for independent high-threshold POT series with Poisson occurrences. This study introduces new closed-form equations of the exact distribution of maxima taken from low-threshold POT with magnitudes characterized by an arbitrary marginal distribution and first-order Markovian dependence, and negative binomial occurrences. The proposed model encompasses and generalizes the independent-Poisson model and allows for analyses relying on significantly larger samples of low-threshold POT values exhibiting dependence, temporal clustering and overdispersion. To check the analytical results, we also introduce a new generator (called Gen2Mp) of proper first-order Markov chains with arbitrary marginal distributions. An illustrative application to long-term rainfall and streamflow data series shows that our model for the distribution of extreme maxima under dependence takes a step forward in developing more reliable data-rich-based analyses of extreme values.
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P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The mode of the climacogram estimator for a Gaussian Hurst-Kolmogorov process, Journal of Hydroinformatics, doi:10.2166/hydro.2019.038, 2019.
Geophysical processes are often characterized by long-term persistence. An important characteristic of such behaviour is the induced large statistical bias, i.e. the deviation of a statistical characteristic from its theoretical value. Here, we examine the most probable value (i.e. mode) of the estimator of variance to adjust the model for statistical bias. Particularly, we conduct an extensive Monte Carlo analysis based on the climacogram (i.e. variance of the average process vs. scale) of the simple scaling (Gaussian Hurst-Kolmogorov) process, and we show that its classical estimator is highly skewed especially in large scales. We observe that the mode of the climacogram estimator can be well approximated by its lower quartile (25% quantile). To derive an easy-to-fit empirical expression for the mode, we assume that the climacogram estimator follows a gamma distribution, an assumption strictly valid for Gaussian white noise processes. The results suggest that when a single timeseries is available, it is advantageous to estimate the Hurst parameter using the mode estimator rather than the expected one. Finally, it is discussed that while the proposed model for mode bias works well for Gaussian processes, for higher accuracy and non-Gaussian processes, one should perform a Monte Carlo simulation following an explicit generation algorithm.
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T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Revealing hidden persistence in maximum rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (14), 1673–1689, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1657578, 2019.
Clustering of extremes is critical for hydrological design and risk management and challenges the popular assumption of independence of extremes. We investigate the links between clustering of extremes and long-term persistence, else Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics, in the parent process exploring the possibility of inferring the latter from the former. We find that (a) identifiability of persistence from maxima depends foremost on the choice of the threshold for extremes, the skewness and kurtosis of the parent process, and less on sample size; and (b) existing indices for inferring dependence from series of extremes are downward biased when applied to non-Gaussian processes. We devise a probabilistic index based on the probability of occurrence of peak-over-threshold events across multiple scales, which can reveal clustering, linking it to the persistence of the parent process. Its application shows that rainfall extremes may exhibit noteworthy departures from independence and consistency with an HK model.
See also: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1657578
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic evaluation of landscapes transformed by renewable energy installations and civil works, Energies, 12 (4), 2817, doi:10.3390/en12142817, 2019.
Renewable energy (RE) installations and civil works are beneficial in terms of sustainability, but a considerable amount of space in the landscape is required in order to harness this energy. In contemporary environmental theory the landscape is considered an environmental parameter and the transformation of the landscape by RE works has received increasing attention by the scientific community and affected societies. This research develops a novel computational stochastic tool the 2D Climacogram (2D-C) that allows the analysis and comparison of images of landscapes, both original and transformed by RE works. This is achieved by a variability characterization of the grayscale intensity of 2D images. A benchmark analysis is performed for art paintings in order to evaluate the properties of the 2D-C for image analysis, and the change in variability among images. Extensive applications are performed for landscapes transformed by RE works. Results show that the 2D-C is able to quantify the changes in variability of the image features, which may prove useful in the landscape impact assessment of large-scale engineering works.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1984/1/documents/energies-12-02817.pdf (2772 KB)
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| 1. | Ding, L., Q. Li, J. Tang, J. Wang, and X. Chen, Linking land use metrics measured in aquatic-terrestrial interfaces to water quality of reservoir-based water sources in Eastern China, Sustainability, 11(18), 4860, doi:10.3390/su11184860, 2019. |
G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, S. Sigourou, N. D. Lagaros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The development of the Athens water supply system and inferences for optimizing the scale of water infrastructures, Sustainability, 11 (9), 2657, doi:10.3390/su11092657, 2019.
Modern organized societies require robust infrastructures, among which hydraulic projects, such as water supply and drainage systems, are most important, particularly in water-scarce areas. Athens is a unique example because it is a big city (population 3.7 million) located in a very dry area. In order to support the development of the city, large hydraulic projects had to be constructed during its history and, as a result, Athens currently has one of the largest water supply systems in the world. Could Athenians choose smaller scale infrastructures instead? Analyzing social, technical and economical historical data, we can see that large capital investments were required. In order to evaluate these investments this paper presents a technical summary of the development. An economic analysis displays historical values of these investments in present monetary values. The cost of existing infrastructure is compared to the cost of constructing smaller reservoirs and a model is created to correlate the price of water and the cost of water storage with the size of reservoirs. In particular, if more and smaller reservoirs were built instead of the large existing ones, the cost of the water would significantly increase, as illustrated by modelling the cost using local data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1970/1/documents/sustainability-11-02657-v3.pdf (6450 KB)
See also: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/9/2657
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Time’s arrow in stochastic characterization and simulation of atmospheric and hydrological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (9), 1013–1037, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1600700, 2019.
Time’s arrow has important philosophical, scientific and technical connotations and is closely related to randomness as well as to causality. Stochastics offers a frame to explore, characterize and simulate irreversibility in natural processes. Indicators of irreversibility are different if we study a single process alone, or more processes simultaneously. In the former case, description of irreversibility requires at least third-order properties, while in the latter lagged second-order properties may suffice to reveal causal relations. Several examined data sets indicate that in atmospheric processes irreversibility is negligible at hydrologically relevant time scales, but may exist at the finest scales. However, the irreversibility of streamflow is marked for scales of several days and this highlights the need to reproduce it in flood simulations. For this reason, two methods of generating time series with irreversibility are developed, from which one, based on an asymmetric moving average scheme, proves to be satisfactory.
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| 1. | Brunner, M. I., A. Bárdossy, and R. Furrer, Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3175-3187, doi:10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019. |
E. Volpi, A. Fiori, S. Grimaldi, F. Lombardo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Save hydrological observations! Return period estimation without data decimation, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.017, 2019.
The concept of return period and its estimation are pivotal in risk management for many geophysical applications. Return period is usually estimated by inferring a probability distribution from an observed series of the random process of interest and then applying the classical equation, i.e. the inverse of the exceedance probability. Traditionally, we form a statistical sample by selecting, from the ”complete” time series (e.g. at the daily scale), those values that can reasonably be considered as realizations of independent extremes, e.g. annual maxima or peaks over a certain high threshold. Such a selection procedure entails that a large number of observations are discarded; this wastage of information could have important consequences in practical problems, where the reduction of the already small size of common hydrological records significantly affects the reliability of the estimates. Under such circumstances, it is crucial to exploit all the available information. To this end, we investigate the advantages of estimating the return period without any data decimation, by using the full data-set. The proposed procedure, denoted as Complete Time-series Analysis (CTA), exploits the property that the average interarrival time (i.e. return period) of potentially damaging events is not affected by the dependence structure of the underlying process, even for cyclo-stationary (e.g. seasonal) processes. For the sake of illustration, the CTA is compared to that based on annual maxima selection, through a simple non-parametric approach, discussing advantages and limitations of the method. Results suggest that the proposed CTA approach provides a more conservative return period estimation in an holistic implementation framework within a broader range of return period values than that pertaining to other methods, which means not only the largest extremes that are the focus of extreme value theory.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Knowable moments for high-order stochastic characterization and modelling of hydrological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (1), 19–33, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1556794, 2019.
Classical moments, raw or central, express important theoretical properties of probability distributions but can hardly be estimated from typical hydrological samples for orders beyond two. L-moments are better estimated, but they all are of first order in terms of the process of interest; while they are effective in inferring the marginal distribution of stochastic processes, they cannot characterize even secondorder dependence of processes (autocovariance, climacogram, power spectrum) and thus they cannot help in stochastic modelling. Picking from both categories, we introduce knowable (K-) moments, which combine advantages of both classical and L-moments, and enable reliable estimation from samples and effective description of high-order statistics, useful for marginal and joint distributions of stochastic processes. Further, we extend recent stochastic tools by introducing the K-climacogram and the K-climacospectrum, which enable characterization, in terms of univariate functions, of high-order properties of stochastic processes, as well as preservation thereof in simulations.
Remarks:
Free e-prints: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/vqPitmiKgeNpgbHXxHHR/full?target=10.1080/02626667.2018.1556794
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T. Iliopoulou, C. Aguilar , B. Arheimer, M. Bermúdez, N. Bezak, A. Ficchi, D. Koutsoyiannis, J. Parajka, M. J. Polo, G. Thirel, and A. Montanari, A large sample analysis of European rivers on seasonal river flow correlation and its physical drivers, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 73–91, doi:10.5194/hess-23-73-2019, 2019.
The geophysical and hydrological processes governing river flow formation exhibit persistence at several timescales, which may manifest itself with the presence of positive seasonal correlation of streamflow at several different time lags. We investigate here how persistence propagates along subsequent seasons and affects low and high flows. We define the high-flow season (HFS) and the low-flow season (LFS) as the 3-month and the 1-month periods which usually exhibit the higher and lower river flows, respectively. A dataset of 224 rivers from six European countries spanning more than 50 years of daily flow data is exploited. We compute the lagged seasonal correlation between selected river flow signatures, in HFS and LFS, and the average river flow in the antecedent months. Signatures are peak and average river flow for HFS and LFS, respectively. We investigate the links between seasonal streamflow correlation and various physiographic catchment characteristics and hydro-climatic properties. We find persistence to be more intense for LFS signatures than HFS. To exploit the seasonal correlation in the frequency estimation of high and low flows, we fit a bi-variate meta-Gaussian probability distribution to the selected flow signatures and average flow in the antecedent months in order to condition the distribution of high and low flows in the HFS and LFS, respectively, upon river flow observations in the previous months. The benefit of the suggested methodology is demonstrated by updating the frequency distribution of high and low flows one season in advance in a real-world case. Our findings suggest that there is a traceable physical basis for river memory which, in turn, can be statistically assimilated into high- and low-flow frequency estimation to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions for technical purposes.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1927/1/documents/hess-23-73-2019.pdf (6166 KB)
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A. Koskinas, A. Tegos, P. Tsira, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Papanicolaou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Τ. Williamson, Insights into the Oroville Dam 2017 spillway incident, Geosciences, 9 (37), doi:10.3390/geosciences9010037, 2019.
In February 2017, a failure occurring in Oroville Dam’s main spillway risked causing severe damages downstream. A unique aspect of this incident was the fact that it happened during a flood scenario well within its design and operational procedures, prompting research into its causes and determining methods to prevent similar events from reoccurring. In this study, a hydroclimatic analysis of Oroville Dam’s catchment is conducted, along with a review of related design and operational manuals. The data available allows for the comparison of older flood-frequency analyses to new alternative methods proposed in this paper and relevant literature. Based on summary characteristics of the 2017 floods, possible causes of the incident are outlined, in order to understand which factors contributed more significantly. It turns out that the event was most likely the result of a structural problem in the dam’s main spillway and detrimental geological conditions, but analysis of surface level data also reveals operational issues that were not present during previous larger floods, promoting a discussion about flood control design methods, specifications, and dam inspection procedures, and how these can be improved to prevent a similar event from occurring in the future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1926/1/documents/geosciences-09-00037-2.pdf (6834 KB)
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparison of stochastic and machine learning methods for multi-step ahead forecasting of hydrological processes, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1638-6, 2019.
Research within the field of hydrology often focuses on the statistical problem of comparing stochastic to machine learning (ML) forecasting methods. The performed comparisons are based on case studies, while a study providing large-scale results on the subject is missing. Herein, we compare 11 stochastic and 9 ML methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 extensive computational experiments based on simulations. Each of these experiments uses 2000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 100 values and the second time using time series of 300 values. Additionally, we conduct a real-world experiment using 405 mean annual river discharge time series of 100 values. We quantify the forecasting performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that stochastic and ML methods may produce equally useful forecasts.
Remarks:
Supplementary information: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7092824.v1
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P. Dimitriadis, K. Tzouka, D. Koutsoyiannis, H. Tyralis, A. Kalamioti, E. Lerias, and P. Voudouris, Stochastic investigation of long-term persistence in two-dimensional images of rocks, Spatial Statistics, 29, 177–191, doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2018.11.002, 2019.
Determining the geophysical properties of rocks and geological formations is of high importance in many fields such as geotechnical engineering. In this study, we investigate the second-order dependence structure of spatial (two-dimensional) processes through the statistical perspective of variance vs. scale (else known as the climacogram) instead of covariance vs. lag (e.g. autocovariance, variogram etc.) or power vs. frequency (e.g. power spectrum, scaleogram, wavelet transform etc.) which traditionally are applied. In particular, we implement a two-dimensional (visual) estimator, adjusted for bias and for unknown process mean, through the (plot of) variance of the space-averaged process vs. the spatial scale. Additionally, we attempt to link the climacogram to the type of rocks and provide evidence on stochastic similarities in certain of their characteristics, such as mineralogical composition and resolution. To this end, we investigate two-dimensional spatial images of rocks in terms of their stochastic microstructure as estimated by the climacogram. The analysis is based both on microscale and macroscale data extracted from grayscale images of rocks. Interestingly, a power-law drop of variance vs. scale (or else known as long-term persistence) is detected in all scales presenting a similar power-exponent. Furthermore, the strengths and limitations of the climacogram as a stochastic tool are discussed and compared with the traditional tool in spatial statistics, the variogram. We show that the former has considerable strengths for detecting the long-range dependence in spatial statistics.
Remarks:
Share Link: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1YJjr7su79fMuR
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Univariate time series forecasting of temperature and precipitation with a focus on machine learning algorithms: a multiple-case study from Greece, Water Resources Management, 32 (15), 5207–5239, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2155-6, 2018.
We provide contingent empirical evidence on the solutions to three problems associated with univariate time series forecasting using machine learning (ML) algorithms by conducting an extensive multiple-case study. These problems are: (a) lagged variable selection, (b) hyperparameter handling, and (c) comparison between ML and classical algorithms. The multiple-case study is composed by 50 single-case studies, which use time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation observed in Greece. We focus on two ML algorithms, i.e. neural networks and support vector machines, while we also include four classical algorithms and a naïve benchmark in the comparisons. We apply a fixed methodology to each individual case and, subsequently, we perform a cross-case synthesis to facilitate the detection of systematic patterns. We fit the models to the deseasonalized time series. We compare the one- and multi-step ahead forecasting performance of the algorithms. Regarding the one-step ahead forecasting performance, the assessment is based on the absolute error of the forecast of the last monthly observation. For the quantification of the multi-step ahead forecasting performance we compute five metrics on the test set (last year’s monthly observations), i.e. the root mean square error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of standard deviations, the coefficient of correlation and the index of agreement. The evidence derived by the experiments can be summarized as follows: (a) the results mostly favour using less recent lagged variables, (b) hyperparameter optimization does not necessarily lead to better forecasts, (c) the ML and classical algorithms seem to be equally competitive.
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T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Characterizing and modeling seasonality in extreme rainfall, Water Resources Research, 54 (9), 6242–6258, doi:10.1029/2018WR023360, 2018.
A comprehensive understanding of seasonality in extreme rainfall is essential for climate studies, flood prediction and various hydrological applications such as scheduling season‐specific engineering works, intra‐annual management of reservoirs, seasonal flood risk mitigation and stormwater management. To identify seasonality in extreme rainfall and quantify its impact in a theoretically consistent yet practically appealing manner, we investigate a dataset of 27 daily rainfall records spanning at least 150 years. We aim to objectively identify periods within the year with distinct seasonal properties of extreme rainfall by employing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Optimal partitioning of seasons is identified by minimizing the within‐season variability of extremes. The statistics of annual and seasonal extremes are evaluated by fitting a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the annual and seasonal block maxima series. The results indicate that seasonal properties of rainfall extremes mainly affect the average values of seasonal maxima and their variability, while the shape of their probability distribution and its tail do not substantially vary from season to season. Uncertainty in the estimation of the GEV parameters is quantified by employing three different estimation methods (Maximum Likelihood, Method of Moments and Least Squares) and the opportunity for joint parameter estimation of seasonal and annual probability distributions of extremes is discussed. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme for seasonal characterization and modeling is highlighted when contrasted to results obtained from the conventional approach of using fixed climatological seasons.
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N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Field survey and modelling of irrigation water quality indices in a Mediterranean island catchment: A comparison between spatial interpolation methods, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63 (10), 1447–1467, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1508874, 2018.
A biannual survey of physico-chemical quality indices of 104 irrigation-water wells located in a cultivated plain of a Mediterranean island catchment was conducted using a multi-parameter probe. The campaign was planned so as to differentiate between the dry and wet seasons. The acquired data constituted the test bed for evaluating the results and the features of four spatial interpolation methods, i.e. ordinary kriging, universal kriging, inverse distance weighted and nearest neighbours, against those of the recently introduced bilinear surface smoothing (BSS). In several cases, BSS outperformed the other interpolation methods, especially during the two-fold cross-validation procedure. The study emphasizes the fact that both in situ measurements and good mathematical techniques for studying the spatial distribution of water quality indices are pivotal to agricultural practice management. In the specific case studied, the spatio-temporal variability of water quality parameters and the need for monitoring were evident, as low irrigation water quality was encountered throughout the study area.
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G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic model for the hourly solar radiation process for application in renewable resources management, Advances in Geosciences, 45, 139–145, doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-139-2018, 2018.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the scientific community has made huge leaps to exploit renewable energy sources, with solar radiation being one of the most important. However, the variability of solar radiation has a significant impact on solar energy conversion systems, such as in photovoltaic systems, characterized by a fast and nonlinear response to incident solar radiation. The performance prediction of these systems is typically based on hourly or daily data because those are usually available at these time scales. The aim of this work is to investigate the stochastic nature and time evolution of the solar radiation process for daily and hourly scale, with the ultimate goal of creating a new cyclostationary stochastic model capable of reproducing the dependence structure and the marginal distribution of hourly solar radiation via the clearness index KT .
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1867/1/documents/adgeo-45-139-2018.pdf (4911 KB)
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N. Quinn, G. Blöschl, A. Bardossy, A. Castellarin, M. Clark, C. Cudennec, D. Koutsoyiannis, U. Lall, L. Lichner, J. Parajka, C.D. Peters-Lidard, G. Sander, H. H. G. Savenije, K. Smettem, H. Vereecken, A. Viglione, P. Willems, A. Wood, R. Woods, C.-Y. Xu, and E. Zehe, Invigorating hydrological research through journal publications, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63 (8), 1113–1117, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1496632, 2018.
Editors of several journals in the field of hydrology met during the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union—EGU in Vienna in April 2017. This event was a follow-up of similar meetings held in 2013 and 2015. These meetings enable the group of editors to review the current status of the journals and the publication process, and to share thoughts on future strategies. Journals were represented at the 2017 meeting by their editors, as shown in the list of authors. The main points on invigorating hydrological research through journal publications are communicated in this joint editorial published in the above journals
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The Joint Editorial has been published in:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1865/1/documents/2018_HSJ_InvigoratingHydrologicalResearch.pdf (122 KB)
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E. Klousakou, M. Chalakatevaki, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, R. Tomani, E. Chardavellas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A preliminary stochastic analysis of the uncertainty of natural processes related to renewable energy resources, Advances in Geosciences, 45, 193–199, doi:10.5194/adgeo-45-193-2018, 2018.
The ever-increasing energy demand has led to overexploitation of fossil fuels deposits, while renewables offer a viable alternative. Since renewable energy resources derive from phenomena related to either atmospheric or geophysical processes, unpredictability is inherent to renewable energy systems. An innovative and simple stochastic tool, the climacogram, was chosen to explore the degree of unpredictability. By applying the climacogram across the related timeseries and spatial-series it was feasible to identify the degree of unpredictability in each process through the Hurst parameter, an index that quantifies the level of uncertainty. All examined processes display a Hurst parameter larger than 0.5, indicating increased uncertainty on the long term. This implies that only through stochastic analysis may renewable energy resources be reliably manageable and cost efficient. In this context, a pilot application of a hybrid renewable energy system in the Greek island of Astypalaia is discussed, for which we show how the uncertainty (in terms of variability) of the input hydrometeorological processes alters the uncertainty of the output energy values.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1864/1/documents/adgeo-45-193-2018.pdf (559 KB)
See also: https://www.adv-geosci.net/45/193/2018/
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I. Tsoukalas, C. Makropoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation of stochastic processes exhibiting any-range dependence and arbitrary marginal distributions, Water Resources Research, 54 (11), 9484–9513, doi:10.1029/2017WR022462, 2018.
Hydrometeorological processes are typically characterized by temporal dependence, short‐ or long‐range (e.g., Hurst behavior), as well as by non‐Gaussian distributions (especially at fine time scales). The generation of long synthetic time series that resemble the marginal and joint properties of the observed ones is a prerequisite in many uncertainty‐related hydrological studies, since they can be used as inputs and hence allow the propagation of natural variability and uncertainty to the typically deterministic water‐system models. For this reason, it has been for years one of the main research topics in the field of stochastic hydrology. This work presents a novel model for synthetic time series generation, termed Symmetric Moving Average (neaRly) To Anything (SMARTA), that holds out the promise of simulating stationary univariate and multivariate processes with any‐range dependence and arbitrary marginal distributions, provided that the former is feasible and the latter have finite variance. This is accomplished by utilizing a mapping procedure in combination with the relationship that exists between the correlation coefficients of an auxiliary Gaussian process and a non‐Gaussian one, formalized through the Nataf's joint distribution model. The generality of SMARTA is stressed through two hypothetical simulation studies (univariate and multivariate), characterized by different dependencies and distributions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical aspects of the proposed model through two real‐world cases, one that concerns the generation of annual non‐Gaussian streamflow time series at four stations, and another that involves the synthesis of intermittent, non‐Gaussian, daily rainfall series at a single location.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Brunner, M. I., A. Bárdossy, and R. Furrer, Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3175-3187, doi:10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019. |
| 2. | Cheng, Y., P. Feng, J. Li, Y. Guo, and P. Ren, Water supply risk analysis based on runoff sequence simulation with change point under changing environment, Advances in Meteorology, 9619254, doi:10.1155/2019/9619254, 2019. |
| 3. | #Elsayed, H., S. Djordjević, and D. Savić, The Nile water, food and energy nexus – A system dynamics model, 7th International Computing & Control for the Water Industry Conference, Exeter, United Kingdom, 2019. |
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods, Acta Geophysica, 66 (4), 807–831, doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0120-7, 2018.
We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications, (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods, (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition
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G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, One-step ahead forecasting of geophysical processes within a purely statistical framework, Geoscience Letters, 5, 12, doi:10.1186/s40562-018-0111-1, 2018.
The simplest way to forecast geophysical processes, an engineering problem with a widely recognized challenging character, is the so-called “univariate time series forecasting” that can be implemented using stochastic or machine learning regression models within a purely statistical framework. Regression models are in general fast-implemented, in contrast to the computationally intensive Global Circulation Models, which constitute the most frequently used alternative for precipitation and temperature forecasting. For their simplicity and easy applicability, the former have been proposed as benchmarks for the latter by forecasting scientists. Herein, we assess the one-step ahead forecasting performance of 20 univariate time series forecasting methods, when applied to a large number of geophysical and simulated time series of 91 values. We use two real-world annual datasets, a dataset composed by 112 time series of precipitation and another composed by 185 time series of temperature, as well as their respective standardized datasets, to conduct several real-world experiments. We further conduct large-scale experiments using 12 simulated datasets. These datasets contain 24,000 time series in total, which are simulated using stochastic models from the families of AutoRegressive Moving Average and AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average. We use the frst 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 data points for model-ftting and model-validation, and make predictions corresponding to the 51st, 61st, 71st, 81st and 91st respectively. The total number of forecasts produced herein is 2,177,520, among which 47,520 are obtained using the real-world datasets. The assessment is based on eight error metrics and accuracy statistics. The simulation experiments reveal the most and least accurate methods for long-term forecasting applications, also suggesting that the simple methods may be competitive in specifc cases. Regarding the results of the realworld experiments using the original (standardized) time series, the minimum and maximum medians of the absolute errors are found to be 68 mm (0.55) and 189 mm (1.42) respectively for precipitation, and 0.23 °C (0.33) and 1.10 °C (1.46) respectively for temperature. Since there is an absence of relevant information in the literature, the numerical results obtained using the standardized real-world datasets could be used as rough benchmarks for the one-step ahead predictability of annual precipitation and temperature
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1834/1/documents/s40562-018-0111-1.pdf (3083 KB)
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H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, P.E. O’Connell, K. Tzouka, and T. Iliopoulou, On the long-range dependence properties of annual precipitation using a global network of instrumental measurements, Advances in Water Resources, 111, 301–318, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.11.010, 2018.
The long-range dependence (LRD) is considered an inherent property of geophysical processes, whose presence increases uncertainty. Here we examine the spatial behaviour of LRD in precipitation by regressing the Hurst parameter estimate of mean annual precipitation instrumental data which span from 1916-2015 and cover a big area of the earth’s surface on location characteristics of the instrumental data stations. Furthermore, we apply the Mann-Kendall test under the LRD assumption (MKt-LRD) to reassess the significance of observed trends. To summarize the results, the LRD is spatially clustered, it seems to depend mostly on the location of the stations, while the predictive value of the regression model is good. Thus when investigating for LRD properties we recommend that the local characteristics should be considered. The application of the MKt-LRD suggests that no significant monotonic trend appears in global precipitation, excluding the climate type D (snow) regions in which positive significant trends appear.
Remarks:
Supplementary information files are hosted at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.4892447.v1
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P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic synthesis approximating any process dependence and distribution, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 32 (6), 1493–1515, doi:10.1007/s00477-018-1540-2, 2018.
An extension of the symmetric-moving-average (SMA) scheme is presented for stochastic synthesis of a stationary process for approximating any dependence structure and marginal distribution. The extended SMA model can exactly preserve an arbitrary second-order structure as well as the high order moments of a process, thus enabling a better approximation of any type of dependence (through the second-order statistics) and marginal distribution function (through statistical moments), respectively. Interestingly, by explicitly preserving the coefficient of kurtosis, it can also simulate certain aspects of intermittency, often characterizing the geophysical processes. Several applications with alternative hypothetical marginal distributions, as well as with real world processes, such as precipitation, wind speed and grid-turbulence, highlight the scheme’s wide range of applicability in stochastic generation and Monte-Carlo analysis. Particular emphasis is given on turbulence, in an attempt to simulate in a simple way several of its characteristics regarded as puzzles.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Park, J., C. Onof, and D. Kim, A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 989-1014, doi:10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019. |
P. Kossieris, C. Makropoulos, C. Onof, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A rainfall disaggregation scheme for sub-hourly time scales: Coupling a Bartlett-Lewis based model with adjusting procedures, Journal of Hydrology, 556, 980–992, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.015, 2018.
Many hydrological applications, such as flood studies, require the use of long rainfall data at fine time scales varying from daily down to 1 minute time step. However, in the real world there is limited availability of data at sub-hourly scales. To cope with this issue, stochastic disaggregation techniques are typically employed to produce possible, statistically consistent, rainfall events that aggregate up to the field data collected at coarser scales. A methodology for the stochastic disaggregation of rainfall at fine time scales was recently introduced, combining the Bartlett-Lewis process to generate rainfall events along with adjusting procedures to modify the lower-level variables (i.e., hourly) so as to be consistent with the higher-level one (i.e., daily). In the present paper, we extend the aforementioned scheme, initially designed and tested for the disaggregation of daily rainfall into hourly depths, for any sub-hourly time scale. In addition, we take advantage of the recent developments in Poisson-cluster processes incorporating in the methodology a Bartlett-Lewis model variant that introduces dependence between cell intensity and duration in order to capture the variability of rainfall at sub-hourly time scales. The disaggregation scheme is implemented in an R package, named HyetosMinute, to support disaggregation from daily down to 1-minute time scale. The applicability of the methodology was assessed on a 5-minute rainfall records collected in Bochum, Germany, comparing the performance of the above mentioned model variant against the original Bartlett-Lewis process (non-random with 5 parameters). The analysis shows that the disaggregation process reproduces adequately the most important statistical characteristics of rainfall at wide range of time scales, while the introduction of the model with dependent intensity-duration results in a better performance in terms of skewness, rainfall extremes and dry proportions.
Remarks:
Temporary free access: https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1WHlB52cuBmT2
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.015
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Shrestha, A., M. S. Babel, S. Weesakul, and Z. Vojinovic, Developing intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves under climate change uncertainty: The case of Bangkok, Thailand, Water, 9(2), 145, doi:10.3390/w9020145, 2017. |
| 2. | Li, X., A. Meshgi, X. Wang, J. Zhang, S. H. X. Tay, G. Pijcke, N. Manocha, M. Ong, M. T. Nguyen, and V. Babovic, Three resampling approaches based on method of fragments for daily-to-subdaily precipitation disaggregation, International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5438, 2018. |
| 3. | Papalexiou, S. M., Y. Markonis, F. Lombardo, A. AghaKouchak, and E. Foufoula‐Georgiou, Precise temporal Disaggregation Preserving Marginals and Correlations (DiPMaC) for stationary and non‐stationary processes, Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2018WR022726, 2018. |
| 4. | Park, J., C. Onof, and D. Kim, A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 989-1014, doi:10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019. |
| 5. | Onof, C., and L.-P. Wang, Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: New developments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2019-406, 2019. |
T. Iliopoulou, S.M. Papalexiou, Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation, Journal of Hydrology, 556, 891–900, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.015, 2018.
Long-range dependence (LRD), the so-called Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour, is considered to be an intrinsic characteristic of most natural processes. This behaviour manifests itself by the prevalence of slowly decaying autocorrelation function and questions the Markov assumption, often habitually employed in time series analysis. Herein, we investigate the dependence structure of annual rainfall using a large set, comprising more than a thousand stations worldwide of length 100 years or more, as well as a smaller number of paleoclimatic reconstructions covering the last 12,000 years. Our findings suggest weak long-term persistence for instrumental data (average H = 0.59), which becomes stronger with scale, i.e. in the paleoclimatic reconstructions (average H = 0.75).
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.015
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N. Malamos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial interpolation of potential evapotranspiration for precision irrigation purposes, European Water, 59, 303–309, 2017.
Precision irrigation constitutes a breakthrough for agricultural water management since it provides means to optimal water use. In recent years several applications of precision irrigation are implemented based on spatial data from different origins, i.e. meteorological stations networks, remote sensing data and in situ measurements. One of the factors affecting optimal irrigation system design and management is the daily potential evapotranspiration (PET). A commonly used approach is to estimate the daily PET for the representative day of each month during the irrigation period. In the present study, the implementation of the recently introduced non-parametric bilinear surface smoothing (BSS) methodology for spatial interpolation of daily PET is presented. The study area was the plain of Arta which is located at the Region of Epirus at the North West Greece. Daily PET was estimated according to the FAO Penman-Monteith methodology with data collected from a network of six agrometeorological stations, installed in early 2015 in selected locations throughout the study area. For exploration purposes, we produced PET maps for the Julian dates: 105, 135, 162, 199, 229 and 259, thus covering the entire irrigation period of 2015. Also, comparison and cross validation against the calculated FAO Penman-Monteith PET for each station, were performed between BSS and a commonly used interpolation method, i.e. inverse distance weighted (IDW). During the leave-one-out cross validation procedure, BSS yielded very good results, outperforming IDW. Given the simplicity of the BSS, its overall performance is satisfactory, providing maps that represent the spatial and temporal variation of daily PET.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1776/1/documents/EW_2017_59_41_2HOxTxv.pdf (4259 KB)
See also: http://ewra.net/ew/pdf/EW_2017_59_41.pdf
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| 1. | Ndiaye, P. M., A. Bodian, L. Diop, A. Deme, A. Dezetter, K. Djaman, and A. Ogilvie, Trend and sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the Senegal river basin using NASA meteorological data, Water, 12(7), 1957, doi:10.3390/w12071957, 2020. |
| 2. | Ndiaye, P. M., A. Bodian, L. Diop, A. Dezetter, E. Guilpart, A. Deme, and A. Ogilvie, Future trend and sensitivity analysis of evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35, 100820, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100820, 2021. |
| 3. | Dimitriadou S., and K. G. Nikolakopoulos, Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) methods implemented as ArcMap models with remote-sensed and ground-based inputs, examined along with MODIS ET, for Peloponnese, Greece, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 10(6), 390, doi:10.3390/ijgi10060390, 2021. |
| 4. | #Dimitriadou, S., and K. G. Nikolakopoulos, Development of GIS models via optical programming and python scripts to implement four empirical methods of reference and actual evapotranspiration (ETo, ETa) incorporating MODIS LST inputs, Proc. SPIE 11856, Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology XXIII, 118560K, doi:10.1117/12.2597724, 2021. |
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Forecasting of geophysical processes using stochastic and machine learning algorithms, European Water, 59, 161–168, 2017.
We perform an extensive comparison between four stochastic and two machine learning (ML) forecasting algorithms by conducting a multiple-case study. The latter is composed by 50 single-case studies, which use time series of total monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature observed in Greece. We apply a fixed methodology to each individual case and, subsequently, we perform a cross-case synthesis to facilitate the detection of systematic patterns. The stochastic algorithms include the Autoregressive order one model, an algorithm from the family of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average models, an Exponential Smoothing State Space algorithm and the Theta algorithm, while the ML algorithms are Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. We also use the last observation as a Naïve benchmark in the comparisons. We apply the forecasting methods to the deseasonalized time series. We compare the one-step ahead as also the multi-step ahead forecasting properties of the algorithms. Regarding the one-step ahead forecasting properties, the assessment is based on the absolute error of the forecast of the last observation. For the comparison of the multi-step ahead forecasting properties we use five metrics applied to the test set (last twelve observations), i.e. the root mean square error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of standard deviations, the index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation. Concerning the ML algorithms, we also perform a sensitivity analysis for time lag selection. Additionally, we compare more sophisticated ML methods as regards to the hyperparameter optimization to simple ones.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1768/1/documents/EW_2017_59_22.pdf (1163 KB)
See also: http://www.ewra.net/ew/issue_59.htm
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy production in stochastics, Entropy, 19 (11), 581, doi:10.3390/e19110581, 2017.
While the modern definition of entropy is genuinely probabilistic, in entropy production the classical thermodynamic definition, as in heat transfer, is typically used. Here we explore the concept of entropy production within stochastics and, particularly, two forms of entropy production in logarithmic time, unconditionally (EPLT) or conditionally on the past and present having been observed (CEPLT). We study the theoretical properties of both forms, in general and in application to a broad set of stochastic processes. A main question investigated, related to model identification and fitting from data, is how to estimate the entropy production from a time series. It turns out that there is a link of the EPLT with the climacogram, and of the CEPLT with two additional tools introduced here, namely the differenced climacogram and the climacospectrum. In particular, EPLT and CEPLT are related to slopes of log-log plots of these tools, with the asymptotic slopes at the tails being most important as they justify the emergence of scaling laws of second-order characteristics of stochastic processes. As a real-world application, we use an extraordinary long time series of turbulent velocity and show how a parsimonious stochastic model can be identified and fitted using the tools developed.
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A. Tegos, N. Malamos, A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, A. Karanasios, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Parametric modelling of potential evapotranspiration: a global survey, Water, 9 (10), 795, doi:10.3390/w9100795, 2017.
We present and validate a global parametric model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) with two parameters which are estimated through calibration, using as explanatory variables temperature and extraterrestrial radiation. The model and the parameters estimation approach were tested over the globe, using the FAO CLIMWAT database that provides monthly averaged values of meteorological inputs at 4300 locations worldwide. A preliminary analysis of these data allowed explaining the major drivers of PET over the globe and across seasons. Next, we developed an automatic optimization software tool to calibrate the model and provide point PET estimations against the given Penman-Monteith values. We also employed extended analysis of model inputs and outputs, including the production of global maps of optimized model parameters and associated performance metrics. Also, we employed interpolated values of the optimized parameters to validate the predictive capacity of our model against monthly meteorological time series, at several stations worldwide. The results were very encouraging, since even with the use of abstract climatic information for model calibration and the use of interpolated parameters as local predictors, the model generally ensures reliable PET estimations. In few cases the model performs poorly in estimating the reference PET, due to irregular interactions between temperature and extraterrestrial radiation, as well as because the associated processes are influenced by additional drivers, e.g. relative humidity and wind speed. However, the analysis of the residuals showed that the model is consistent in terms of parameters estimation and model validation. The provided parameters maps allow the direct use of the parametric model wherever in the world, providing PET estimates in case of missing data, that can be further improved even with a short term acquisition of meteorological data.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1738/2/documents/water-09-00795.pdf (6428 KB)
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See also: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/10/795
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Elferchichi, A., G. A. Giorgio, N. Lamaddalena, M. Ragosta, and V. Telesca, Variability of temperature and its impact on reference evapotranspiration: the test case of the Apulia region (Southern Italy), Sustainability, 9(12), 2337, doi:10.3390/su9122337, 2017. |
| 2. | Li, M., R. Chu, S. Shen, and A. R. T. Islam, Quantifying climatic impact on reference evapotranspiration trends in the Huai River Basin of Eastern China, Water, 10(2), 144, doi:10.3390/w10020144, 2018. |
| 3. | Yan, N., F. Tian, B. Wu, W. Zhu, and M. Yu, Spatiotemporal analysis of actual evapotranspiration and its causes in the Hai basin, Remote Sensing, 10(2), 332; doi:10.3390/rs10020332, 2018. |
| 4. | Li, M., R. Chu, A.R.M.T. Islam, and S. Shen, Reference evapotranspiration variation analysis and its approaches evaluation of 13 empirical models in sub-humid and humid regions: A case study of the Huai River Basin, Eastern China, Water, 10(4), 493, doi:10.3390/w10040493, 2018. |
| 5. | Hao, X., S. Zhang, W. Li, W. Duan, G. Fang, Y. Zhang , and B. Guo, The uncertainty of Penman-Monteith method and the energy balance closure problem, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, 123(14), 7433-7443, doi:10.1029/2018JD028371, 2018. |
| 6. | Giménez, P. O., and S. G. García-Galiano, Assessing Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensemble-driven reference evapotranspiration over Spain, Water, 10(9), 1181, doi:10.3390/w10091181, 2018. |
| 7. | Storm, M. E., R. Gouws, and L. J. Grobler, Novel measurement and verification of irrigation pumping energy conservation under incentive-based programmes, Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 29(3), 10–21, doi:10.17159/2413-3051/2018/v29i3a3058, 2018. |
| 8. | Tam, B. Y., K. Szeto, B. Bonsal, G. Flato, A. J. Cannon, and R. Rong, CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 44(1), 90-107, doi:10.1080/07011784.2018.1537812, 2019. |
| 9. | Dalezios, N. R., N. Dercas, A. Blanta, and I. N. Faraslis, Remote sensing in water balance modelling for evapotranspiration at a rural watershed in Central Greece, International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 4(3-4), 306-337, doi:10.1504/IJSAMI.2018.099219, 2019. |
| 10. | Gan, G., Y. Liu, X. Pan, X. Zhao, M. Li, and S. Wang, Testing the symmetric assumption of complementary relationship: A comparison between the linear and nonlinear advection-aridity models in a large ephemeral lake, Water, 11(8), 1574, doi:10.3390/w11081574, 2019. |
| 11. | Zhang, T., Y. Chen, and K. Tha Paw U, Quantifying the impact of climate variables on reference evapotranspiration in Pearl River Basin, China, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(16), 1944-1956, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1662021, 2019. |
| 12. | Hua, D., X. Hao, Y. Zhang, and J. Qin, Uncertainty assessment of potential evapotranspiration in arid areas, as estimated by the Penman-Monteith method, Journal of Arid Land, 12, 166–180, doi:10.1007/s40333-020-0093-7, 2020. |
| 13. | Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani, Z., and S. F. Saberali, Evaluating of eight evapotranspiration estimation methods in arid regions of Iran, Agricultural Water Management, 239, 106243, doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106243, 2020. |
| 14. | Kim, C.-G., J. Lee, J. E. Lee, and H. Kim, Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 53(9), 701-715, doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.9.701, 2020. |
| 15. | Gui, Y., Q. Wang, Y. Zhao, Y. Dong, H. Li, S. Jiang, X. He, and K. Liu, Attribution analyses of reference evapotranspiration changes in China incorporating surface resistance change response to elevated CO2, Journal of Hydrology, 599, 126387, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126387, 2021. |
| 16. | Mohanasundaram, S., M. M. Mekonnen, E. Haacker, C. Ray, S. Lim, and S. Shrestha, An application of GRACE mission datasets for streamflow and baseflow estimation in the Conterminous United States basins, Journal of Hydrology, 601, 126622, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126622, 2021. |
| 17. | Gentilucci, M., M. Bufalini, M. Materazzi, M. Barbieri, D. Aringoli, P. Farabollini, and G. Pambianchi, Calculation of potential evapotranspiration and calibration of the Hargreaves equation using geostatistical methods over the last 10 years in Central Italy, Geosciences, 11(8), 348, doi:10.3390/geosciences11080348, 2021. |
| 18. | Hajek, O. L., and A. K. Knapp, Shifting seasonal patterns of water availability: ecosystem responses to an unappreciated dimension of climate change, New Phytologist, doi:10.1111/nph.17728, 2021. |
| 19. | Dos Santos, A. A., J. L. M. de Souza, and S. L. K. Rosa, Evapotranspiration with the Moretti-Jerszurki-Silva model for the Brazilian subtropical climate, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1988610, 2021. |
| 20. | Stefanidis, S., and V. Alexandridis, Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration temporal variability and their relationship in two forest ecosystems in Greece, Hydrology, 8(4), 160, doi:10.3390/hydrology8040160, 2021. |
E. Moschos, G. Manou, P. Dimitriadis, V. Afendoulis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and V. Tsoukala, Harnessing wind and wave resources for a Hybrid Renewable Energy System in remote islands: a combined stochastic and deterministic approach, Energy Procedia, 125, 415–424, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.084, 2017.
Wind and wave resources enclose an important portion of the planet’s energy potential. While wind energy has been effectively harnessed through the last decades to substitute other forms of energy production, the utilization of the synergy between wind and wave resource has not yet been adequately investigated. Such a hybrid energy system could prove efficient in covering the needs of non-connected remote islands. A combined deterministic and stochastic methodology is presented in a case study of a remote Aegean island, by assessing a 100-year climate scenario incorporating uncertainty parameters and exploring the possibilities of fully covering its energy demands.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1737/1/documents/wave_procedia.pdf (2296 KB)
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G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation on the stochastic nature of the solar radiation process, Energy Procedia, 125, 398–404, 2017.
A detailed investigation of the variability of solar radiation can be proven useful towards more efficient and sustainable design of renewable resources systems. In this context, we analyze observations from Athens, Greece and we investigate the marginal distribution of the solar radiation process at a daily and hourly step, the long-term behavior based on the annual scale of the process, as well as the double periodicity (diurnal-seasonal) of the process. Finally, we apply a parsimonious double-cyclostationary stochastic model to generate hourly synthetic time series preserving the marginal statistical characteristics, the double periodicity and the dependence structure of the process.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1736/1/documents/solar_procedia.pdf (804 KB)
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K. Mavroyeoryos, I. Engonopoulos, H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation of electricity demand in a remote island for optimal planning of a hybrid renewable energy system, Energy Procedia, 125, 435–442, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.095, 2017.
Here we simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand needs. The available hourly demand load data are analyzed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electricity demand load and the mean daily temperature are computed. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1735/1/documents/energy_demand_procedia.pdf (1370 KB)
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G. Karakatsanis, D. Roussis, Y. Moustakis, N. Gournari, I. Parara, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Energy, variability and weather finance engineering, Energy Procedia, 125, 389–397, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.073, 2017.
Weather derivatives comprise efficient financial tools for managing hydrometeorological uncertainties in various markets. With ~46% utilization by the energy industry, weather derivatives are projected to constitute a critical element for dealing with risks of low and medium impacts –contrary to standard insurance contracts that deal with extreme events. In this context, we design and engineer -via Monte Carlo pricing- a weather derivative for a remote island in Greece -powered by an autonomous diesel-fuelled generator- resembling to a standard call option contract to test the benefits for both the island’s public administration and a bank -as the transaction’s counterparty.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1734/1/documents/weather_finance_procedia.pdf (872 KB)
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M. Chalakatevaki, P. Stamou, S. Karali, V. Daniil, P. Dimitriadis, K. Tzouka, T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, P. Papanicolaou, and N. Mamassis, Creating the electric energy mix in a non-connected island, Energy Procedia, 125, 425–434, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.089, 2017.
As the electric energy in the non-connected islands is mainly produced by oil-fueled power plants, the unit cost is extremely high due to import cost. The integration of renewable resources in the energy mix is essential for reducing the financial and environmental cost. In this work, various energy resources (renewable and fossil fuels) are evaluated using technical, environmental and economic criteria with an emphasis to biomass, pumped hydro storage and replacement of oil power plants. Finally, a synthesis is presented as a toy-model in an Aegean island that satisfies the electric energy demand including base and peak electric loads.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1733/1/documents/electric_mix_energy_procedia.pdf (1118 KB)
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| 1. | Bakanos, P. I., and K. L. Katsifarakis, Optimizing operation of a large-scale pumped storage hydropower system coordinated with wind farm by means of genetic algorithm, Global Nest Journal, 2019. |
| 2. | Giudici, F., A. Castelletti, E. Garofalo, M. Giuliani, and H. R. Maier, Dynamic, multi-objective optimal design and operation of water-energy systems for small, off-grid islands, Applied Energy, 250, 605-616, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.084, 2019. |
K. Papoulakos, G. Pollakis, Y. Moustakis, A. Markopoulos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability, Energy Procedia, 125, 405–414, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.078, 2017.
We present a stochastic approach accounting for input uncertainties within water-energy simulations. The stochastic paradigm, which allows for quantifying the inherent uncertainty of hydrometeorological processes, becomes even more crucial in case of missing or inadequate information. Our scheme uses simplified conceptual models which are subject to significant uncertainties, to generate the inputs of the overall simulation problem. The methodology is tested in a hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system across the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, comprising a pumped-storage reservoir serving multiple water uses, where both inflows and demands are regarded as random variables as result of stochastic inputs and parameters.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1732/1/documents/energy_proc_paper.pdf (2324 KB)
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| 1. | Pouliasis, G., G. A. Torres-Alves, and O. Morales-Napoles, Stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes using vine copulas, Water, 13(16), 2156, doi:10.3390/w13162156, 2021. |
C. Pappas, M.D. Mahecha, D.C. Frank, F. Babst, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability, Nature Ecology & Evolution, 1, 1263–1270, doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0277-5, 2017.
Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate–biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model–data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.
Remarks:
View-only version of the paper can be accessed using the following SharedIt link: http://rdcu.be/vayo
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H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the prediction of persistent processes using the output of deterministic models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62 (13), 2083–2102, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1361535, 2017.
A problem frequently met in engineering hydrology is the forecasting of hydrologic variables conditional on their historical observations and the hindcasts and forecasts of a deterministic model. On the contrary, it is a common practice for climatologists to use the output of general circulation models (GCMs) for the prediction of climatic variables despite their inability to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions. Here we apply the well-established Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) for forecasting hydroclimatic variables using stochastic models through coupling them with GCMs. We extend the BPF to cases where long-term persistence appears, using the Hurst-Kolmogorov process (HKp, also known as fractional Gaussian noise) and we investigate analytically its properties. We apply the framework to calculate the distributions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation stochastic processes for the time period 2016-2100 in the United States of America conditional on historical observations and the respective output of GCMs.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1727/1/documents/2017HSJ_OnTthePredictionOfPersistentProcesses.pdf (3152 KB)
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Quo vadis, hydrology?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1489597, 2018. |
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and F. Serinaldi, A theoretically consistent stochastic cascade for temporal disaggregation of intermittent rainfall, Water Resources Research, 53 (6), 4586–4605, doi:10.1002/2017WR020529, 2017.
Generating fine-scale time series of intermittent rainfall that are fully consistent with any give coarse-scale totals is a key and open issue in many hydrological problems. We propose a stationary disaggregation method that simulates rainfall time series with given dependence structure, wet/dry probability, and marginal distribution at a target finer (lower-level) time scale, preserving full consistency with variables at a parent coarser (higher-level) time scale. We account for the intermittent character of rainfall at fine time scales by merging a discrete stochastic representation of intermittency and a continuous one of rainfall depths. This approach yields a unique and parsimonious mathematical framework providing general analytical formulations of mean, variance, and autocorrelation function (ACF) for a mixed-type stochastic process in terms of mean, variance, and ACFs of both continuous and discrete components, respectively. To achieve the full consistency between variables at finer and coarser time scales in terms of marginal distribution and coarse-scale totals, the generated lower-level series are adjusted according to a procedure that does not affect the stochastic structure implied by the original model. To assess model performance, we study rainfall process as intermittent with both independent and dependent occurrences, where dependence is quantified by the probability that two consecutive time intervals are dry. In either case, we provide analytical formulations of main statistics of our mixed-type disaggregation model and show their clear accordance with Monte Carlo simulations. An application to rainfall time series from real world is shown as a proof of concept.
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A. Tegos, H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and K. H. Hamed, An R function for the estimation of trend signifcance under the scaling hypothesis- application in PET parametric annual time series, Open Water Journal, 4 (1), 66–71, 6, 2017.
We present an R function for testing the significant trend of time series. Te function calculates trend significance using a modified Mann-Kendall test, which takes into account the well-known physical behavior of the Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics. Te function is tested at 10 stations in Greece, with approximately 50 years of PET data with the use of a recent parametric approach. A significant downward trend was detected at two stations. Te R software is now suitable for extensive use in several fields of the scientific community, allowing a physical consistent of a trend analysis.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1703/1/documents/2017OW_An_R_FunctionForTrendSignificance.pdf (326 KB)
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See also: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/openwater/vol4/iss1/6/
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H. Tyralis, A. Tegos, A. Delichatsiou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A perpetually interrupted interbasin water transfer as a modern Greek drama: Assessing the Acheloos to Pinios interbasin water transfer in the context of integrated water resources management, Open Water Journal, 4 (1), 113–128, 12, 2017.
Interbasin water transfer is a primary instrument of water resources management directly related with the integrated development of the economy, society and environment. Here we assess the project of the interbasin water transfer from the river Acheloos to the river Pinios basin which has intrigued the Greek society, the politicians and scientists for decades. Te set of criteria we apply originate from a previous study reviewing four interbasin water transfers and assessing whether an interbasin water transfer is compatible with the concept of integrated water resources management. In this respect, we assess which of the principles of the integrated water resources management the Acheloos to Pinios interbasin water transfer project does or does not satisfy. While the project meets the criteria of real surplus and deficit, of sustainability and of sound science, i.e., the criteria mostly related to the engineering part, it fails to meet the criteria of good governance and balancing of existing rights with needs, i.e., the criteria associated with social aspects of the project. Te non-fulfillment of the latter criteria is the consequence of chronic diseases of the Greek society, which become obvious in the case study
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1702/1/documents/2017OW_AcheloosToPiniosInterbasinWaterTransfer.pdf (2744 KB)
See also: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/openwater/vol4/iss1/11/
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I. Deligiannis, P. Dimitriadis, Ο. Daskalou, Y. Dimakos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Global investigation of double periodicity οf hourly wind speed for stochastic simulation; application in Greece, Energy Procedia, 97, 278–285, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.001, 2016.
The wind process is considered an important hydrometeorological process and one of the basic resources of renewable energy. In this paper, we analyze the double periodicity of wind, i.e., daily and annual, for numerous wind stations with hourly data around the globe and we develop a four-parameter model. Additionally, we apply this model to several stations in Greece and we estimate their marginal characteristics and stochastic structure best described by an extended-Pareto marginal probability function and a Hurst-Kolmogorov process, respectively.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1671/1/documents/1-s2.0-S187661021630947X-main.pdf (3319 KB)
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Y. Markonis, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, E. C. Moschou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7, 2016.
Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940 – 2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years, (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7
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Y. Markonis, A. N. Angelakis, J. Christy, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability and the evolution of water technologies in Crete, Hellas, Water History, 8 (2), 137–157, doi:10.1007/s12685-016-0159-9, 2016.
The Greek island of Crete is one of the southernmost regions of Europe with a long and rich history, which begins as early as ca. 3200 BC with the onset of the Minoan civilization. The archeological findings of well-designed water supply and sewerage systems in the Minoan Palaces and other settlements, with impressive architecture and high-level functionality, suggest a good degree of understanding of the basic water management techniques well before the scientific achievements of our times. Here we document characteristic examples of the ancient hydraulic works and the related hydro-technologies throughout the history of Crete. We summarize the pressures on the water resources in Crete in connection with climatic variability and investigate how and what could be learned from the past using recent findings and paleoclimatology. The reconstructions of the Eastern Mediterranean and more specifically of the Cretan climate using different proxy data (e.g. sediment, pollen, and historical archives) demonstrate a series of alternating periods with varying climatic characteristics with fluctuation lengths spanning from a few decades to many centuries. The synthesis of the on-going research on past climate offers the opportunity to create a picture of the Cretan climatic regime for the last 10,000 years, which could be useful to both hydrologists and archeologists. As the past is the key to the future, the information provided could help in developing modern integrated and sustainable water management plans.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12685-016-0159-9
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| 1. | Angelakis, A. N., G. Antoniou, K. Voudouris, N. Kazakis, N. Delazios, and N. Dercas, History of floods in Greece: causes and measures for protection, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-020-03898-w, 2020. |
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A global survey on the seasonal variation of the marginal distribution of daily precipitation, Advances in Water Resources, 94, 131–145, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.005, 2016.
To characterize the seasonal variation of the marginal distribution of daily precipitation, it is important to find which statistical characteristics of daily precipitation actually vary the most from month-to-month and which could be regarded to be invariant. Relevant to the latter issue is the question whether there is a single model capable to describe effectively the nonzero daily precipitation for every month worldwide. To study these questions we introduce and apply a novel test for seasonal variation (SV-Test) and explore the performance of two flexible distributions in a massive analysis of approximately 170,000 monthly daily precipitation records at more than 14,000 stations from all over the globe. The analysis indicates that: (a) the shape characteristics of the marginal distribution of daily precipitation, generally, vary over the months, (b) commonly used distributions such as the Exponential, Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal, and the Pareto, are incapable to describe “universally” the daily precipitation, (c) exponential-tail distributions like the Exponential, mixed Exponentials or the Gamma can severely underestimate the magnitude of extreme events and thus may be a wrong choice, and (d) the Burr type XII and the Generalized Gamma distributions are two good models, with the latter performing exceptionally well.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.005
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D. Koutsoyiannis, G. Blöschl, A. Bardossy, C. Cudennec, D. Hughes, A. Montanari, I. Neuweiler, and H. H. G. Savenije, Joint Editorial: Fostering innovation and improving impact assessment for journal publications in hydrology, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (7), 1170–1173, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1162953, 2016.
The Joint Editorial was published in:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1603/1/documents/2016Joint_editorial_Fostering_innovation.pdf.pdf (235 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1162953
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D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Acreman, A. Castellarin, H. H. G. Savenije, C. Cudennec, G. Blöschl, G. Young, A. Montanari, and F. Watkins, Should auld acquaintance be forgot? Comment on “Farewell, HSJ!—address from the retiring editor” by Z.W. Kundzewicz, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1150032, 2016.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1602/1/documents/2016HSJ_ShouldAuldAcquaintanceBeForgot.pdf (72 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1150032
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P. Dimitriadis, A. Tegos, A. Oikonomou, V. Pagana, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Comparative evaluation of 1D and quasi-2D hydraulic models based on benchmark and real-world applications for uncertainty assessment in flood mapping, Journal of Hydrology, 534, 478–492, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.020, 2016.
One-dimensional and quasi-two-dimensional hydraulic freeware models (HEC-RAS, LISFLOOD-FP and FLO-2d) are widely used for flood inundation mapping. These models are tested on a benchmark test with a mixed rectangular-triangular channel cross section. Using a Monte-Carlo approach, we employ extended sensitivity analysis by simultaneously varying the input discharge, longitudinal and lateral gradients and roughness coefficients, as well as the grid cell size. Based on statistical analysis of three output variables of interest, i.e. water depths at the inflow and outflow locations and total flood volume, we investigate the uncertainty enclosed in different model configurations and flow conditions, without the influence of errors and other assumptions on topography, channel geometry and boundary conditions. Moreover, we estimate the uncertainty associated to each input variable and we compare it to the overall one. The outcomes of the benchmark analysis are further highlighted by applying the three models to real-world flood propagation problems, in the context of two challenging case studies in Greece.
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| 1. | Apel, H., O. Martínez Trepat, N. N. Hung, D. T. Chinh, B. Merz, and N. V. Dung, Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16, 941-961, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016, 2016. |
| 2. | Papaioannou , G., A. Loukas, L. Vasiliades, and G. T. Aronica, Flood inundation mapping sensitivity to riverine spatial resolution and modelling approach, Natural Hazards, 83, 117-132, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2382-1, 2016. |
| 3. | #Santillan, J. R., A. M. Amora, M. Makinano-Santillan, J. T. Marqueso, L. C. Cutamora, J. L. Serviano, and R. M. Makinano, Assessing the impacts of flooding caused by extreme rainfall events through a combined geospatial and numerical modeling approach, The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Vol. XLI-B8, 2016, XXIII ISPRS Congress, Prague, doi:10.5194/isprs-archives-XLI-B8-1271-2016, 2016. |
| 4. | Cheviron, B. and R. Moussa, Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamics in hydrology and hydraulics: a review, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 3799-3830, doi:10.5194/hess-20-3799-2016, 2016. |
| 5. | Anees, M.T., K. Abdullah, M.N.M. Nawawi, N. N. N. Ab Rahman, A. R. Mt. Piah, N. A. Zakaria, M.I. Syakir, and A.K. Mohd. Omar, Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis, Journal of African Earth Sciences, 124, 478–486, doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2016.10.001, 2016. |
| 6. | Skublics, D., G. Blöschl, and P. Rutschmann, Effect of river training on flood retention of the Bavarian Danube, Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64(4), 349-356, doi:10.1515/johh-2016-0035, 2016. |
| 7. | Doong, D.-J., W. Lo, Z. Vojinovic, W.-L. Lee, and S.-P. Lee, Development of a new generation of flood inundation maps—A case study of the coastal City of Tainan, Taiwan, Water, 8(11), 521, doi:10.3390/w8110521, 2016. |
| 8. | #Cartaya, S., and R. Mantuano-Eduarte, Identificación de zonas en riesgo de inundación mediante la simulación hidráulica en un segmento del Río Pescadillo, Manabí, Ecuador, Revista de Investigación, 40(89), 158-170, 2016. |
| 9. | Javadnejad, F., B. Waldron, and A. Hill, LITE Flood: Simple GIS-based mapping approach for real-time redelineation of multifrequency floods, Natural Hazards Review, 18(3), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000238, 2017. |
| 10. | Shrestha, A., M. S. Babel, S. Weesakul, and Z. Vojinovic, Developing intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves under climate change uncertainty: The case of Bangkok, Thailand, Water, 9(2), 145, doi:10.3390/w9020145, 2017. |
| 11. | Roushangar, K., M. T. Alami, V. Nourani, and A. Nouri, A cost model with several hydraulic constraints for optimizing in practice a trapezoidal cross section, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 19(3), 456-468, doi:10.2166/hydro.2017.081, 2017. |
| 12. | Papaioannou, G., L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas, and G. T. Aronica, Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling, Advances in Geosciences, 44, 23-34, doi:10.5194/adgeo-44-23-2017, 2017. |
| 13. | Anees, M. T., K. Abdullah, M. N. M. Nawawi, N. N. N. Ab Rahman, A. R. Mt. Piah, M. I. Syakir, A. K. M. Omar, and K. Hossain, Applications of remote sensing, hydrology and geophysics for flood analysis, Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 10(17), doi:10.17485/ijst/2017/v10i17/111541, 2017. |
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Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Scale-dependence of persistence in precipitation records, Nature Climate Change, 6, 399–401, doi:10.1038/nclimate2894, 2016.
Long-term persistence or Hurst–Kolmogorov behaviour has been identified in many hydroclimatic records. Such time series are intriguing because they are the hallmark of multi-scale dynamical processes that govern the system from which they arise. They are also highly relevant for water resource managers because these systems exhibit persistent, for example, multi-decadal, mean shifts or extremes clustering that must be included into any long-term drought management strategy. During recent years the growing number of palaeoclimatic reconstructions has allowed further investigation of the long-term statistical properties of climate and an understanding of their implications for the observed change. Recently, the consistency of the proxy data for precipitation was strongly doubted, when their persistence property was compared to the corresponding estimates of instrumental records and model results. The latter suggest that droughts or extremely wet periods occur less frequently than depicted in the palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we show how this could be the outcome of a varying scaling law and present some evidence supporting that proxy records can be reliable descriptors of the long-term precipitation variability.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2894
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P.E. O’Connell, D. Koutsoyiannis, H. F. Lins, Y. Markonis, A. Montanari, and T.A. Cohn, The scientific legacy of Harold Edwin Hurst (1880 – 1978), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (9), 1571–1590, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1125998, 2016.
Emanating from his remarkable characterization of long-term variability in geophysical records in the early 1950s, Hurst’s scientific legacy to hydrology and other disciplines is explored. A statistical explanation of the so-called ‘Hurst Phenomenon’ did not emerge until 1968 when Mandelbrot and co-authors proposed fractional Gaussian noise based on the hypothesis of infinite memory. A vibrant hydrological literature ensued where alternative modelling representations were explored and debated eg ARMA models, the Broken Line model, shifting mean models with no memory, FARIMA models, and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, acknowledging a link with the work of Kolmogorov in 1940. The diffusion of Hurst’s work beyond hydrology is summarized by discipline and citations, showing that he arguably has the largest scientific footprint of any hydrologist in the last century. Its particular relevance to the modelling of long-term climatic variability in the era of climate change is discussed. Links to various long-term modes of variability in the climate system, driven by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics, are explored. A physical explanation of the Hurst Phenomenon in hydrology remains as a challenge for future research.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1125998
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Vogel, M., Stochastic watershed models for hydrologic risk management, Water Security, doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2017.06.001, 2017. |
P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Papanicolaou, Stochastic similarities between the microscale of turbulence and hydrometeorological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (9), 1623–1640, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1085988, 2016.
Turbulence is considered to generate and drive most geophysical processes. The simplest case is the isotropic turbulence. In this paper, the most common three-dimensional power-spectrum-based models of isotropic turbulence are studied in terms of their stochastic properties. Such models often have a high-order of complexity, lack in stochastic interpretation and violate basic stochastic asymptotic properties, such as the theoretical limits of the Hurst coefficient, in case that Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour is observed. A simpler and robust model (which incorporates self-similarity structures, e.g. fractal dimension and Hurst coefficient) is proposed using a climacogram-based stochastic framework and tested over high resolution observational data of laboratory scale as well as hydrometeorological observations of wind speed and precipitation intensities. Expressions of other stochastic tools like the autocovariance and power spectrum are also produced from the model and show agreement with data. Finally, uncertainty, discretization and bias related errors are estimated for each stochastic tool, showing lower errors for the climacogram-based ones and larger for power-spectrum ones.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1085988
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N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Bilinear surface smoothing for spatial interpolation with optional incorporation of an explanatory variable. Part 2: Application to synthesized and rainfall data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (3), 527–540, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1080826, 2016.
The non-parametric mathematical framework of Bilinear Surface Smoothing (BSS) methodology provides flexible means for spatial (two dimensional) interpolation of variables. As presented in a companion paper, interpolation is accomplished by means of fitting consecutive bilinear surfaces into a regression model with known break points and adjustable smoothing terms defined by means of angles formed by those bilinear surfaces. Additionally, the second version of the methodology (BSSE) incorporates, in an objective manner, the influence of an explanatory variable available at a considerable denser dataset. In the present study, both versions are explored and illustrated using both synthesized and real world (hydrological) data, and practical aspects of their application are discussed. Also, comparison and validation against the results of commonly used spatial interpolation methods (Inverse Distance Weighted, Spline, Ordinary Kriging and Ordinary Cokriging) is performed in the context of the real world application. In every case, the method’s efficiency to perform interpolation between data points that are interrelated in a complicated manner was confirmed. Especially during the validation procedure presented in the real world case study, BSSE yielded very good results, outperforming those of the other interpolation methods. Given the simplicity of the approach, the proposed mathematical framework overall performance is quite satisfactory, indicating its applicability for diverse tasks of scientific and engineering hydrology and beyond.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1567/1/documents/2016HSJ_BilinearPart2Application.pdf (1817 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1080826
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N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Bilinear surface smoothing for spatial interpolation with optional incorporation of an explanatory variable. Part 1:Theory, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (3), 519–526, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1051980, 2016.
Bilinear surface smoothing is an alternative concept which provides flexible means for spatial interpolation. Interpolation is accomplished by means of fitting a bilinear surface into a regression model with known break points and adjustable smoothing terms. Additionally, as an option, the incorporation in an objective manner, of the influence of an explanatory variable available at a considerable denser dataset is possible. The parameters involved in each case (with or without an explanatory variable) are determined by a nonparametric approach based on the generalized cross-validation (GCV) methodology. A convenient search technique of the smoothing parameters was achieved by transforming them in terms of tension parameters, with values restricted in the interval [0, 1). The mathematical framework, the computational implementation and details concerning both versions of the methodology, as well as practical aspects of their application are presented and discussed. In a companion paper, examples using both synthesized and real world (hydrological) data are presented to illustrate the methodology. The proposed mathematical framework constitutes a simple alternative to existing spatial interpolation methodologies.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1566/1/documents/2016HSJ_Bilinear_Part1Theory.pdf (188 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1051980
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P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and K. Tzouka, Predictability in dice motion: how does it differ from hydrometeorological processes?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (9), 1611–1622, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1034128, 2016.
From ancients times dice have been used to denote randomness. A dice throw experiment is set up in order to examine the predictability of the die orientation through time using visualization techniques. We apply and compare a deterministic-chaotic and a stochastic model and we show that both suggest predictability in die motion that deteriorates with time just like in hydrometeorological processes. Namely, die’s trajectory can be predictable for short horizons and unpredictable for long ones. Furthermore, we show that the same models can be applied, with satisfactory results, to high temporal resolution time series of rainfall intensity and wind speed magnitude, occurring during mild and strong weather conditions. The difference among the experimental and two natural processes is in the time length of the high-predictability window, which is of the order of 0.1 s, 10 min and 1 h for dice, rainfall and wind process, respectively.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1034128
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Generic and parsimonious stochastic modelling for hydrology and beyond, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (2), 225–244, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1016950, 2016.
The old principle of parsimonious modelling of natural processes has regained its importance in the last few years. The inevitability of uncertainty and risk, and the value of stochastic modelling in dealing with them, are also again appreciated, after a period of growing hopes for radical reduction of uncertainty. Yet in stochastic modelling of natural processes several families of models are used which are often non-parsimonious, unnatural or artificial, theoretically unjustified and, eventually, unnecessary. Here we develop a general methodology for more theoretically justified stochastic processes, which evolve in continuous time and stem from maximum entropy production considerations. The discrete-time properties thereof are theoretically derived from the continuous-time ones and a general simulation methodology in discrete time is built, which explicitly handles the effects of discretization and truncation. Some additional modelling issues are discussed with focus on model identification and fitting, which are often made using inappropriate methods.
Remarks:
The first 50 copies of the paper are available for free at: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/HvECb686EkMDE6vdpCrY/full
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1016950
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Serinaldi, F., Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-015-1124-3, 2015. |
| 2. | Bardsley, E., A finite mixture approach to univariate data simulation with moment matching, Environmental Modelling & Software, 90, 27-33, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.019, 2017. |
| 3. | Brunner, M. I., A. Bárdossy, and R. Furrer, Technical note: Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series using phase randomization, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 3175-3187, doi:10.5194/hess-23-3175-2019, 2019. |
E. Volpi, A. Fiori, S. Grimaldi, F. Lombardo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations, Water Resources Research, doi:10.1002/2015WR017820, 2015.
One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller [1914], the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e. the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017820
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P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Application of stochastic methods to double cyclostationary processes for hourly wind speed simulation, Energy Procedia, 76, 406–411, doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.851, 2015.
In this paper, we present a methodology to analyze processes of double cyclostationarity (e.g. daily and seasonal). This method preserves the marginal characteristics as well as the dependence structure of a process (through the use of climacogram). It consists of a normalization scheme with two periodicities. Furthermore, we apply it to a meteorological station in Greece and construct a stochastic model capable of preserving the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour. Finally, we produce synthetic time-series (based on aggregated Markovian processes) for the purpose of wind speed and energy production simulation (based on a proposed industrial wind turbine).
Remarks:
The pdf file with the full text contains a correction of an erratum in Equation (2)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1570/1/documents/1-s2.0-S1876610215016276-main-2.pdf (1143 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.851
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A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, N. Malamos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evaluation of a parametric approach for estimating potential evapotranspiration across different climates, Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 4, 2–9, doi:10.1016/j.aaspro.2015.03.002, 2015.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is key input in water resources, agricultural and environmental modelling. For many decades, numerous approaches have been proposed for the consistent estimation of PET at several time scales of interest. The most recognized is the Penman-Monteith formula, which is yet difficult to apply in data-scarce areas, since it requires simultaneous observations of four meteorological variables (temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, wind velocity). For this reason, parsimonious models with minimum input data requirements are strongly preferred. Typically, these have been developed and tested for specific hydroclimatic conditions, but when they are applied in different regimes they provide much less reliable (and in some cases misleading) estimates. Therefore, it is essential to develop generic methods that remain parsimonious, in terms of input data and parameterization, yet they also allow for some kind of local adjustment of their parameters, through calibration. In this study we present a recent parametric formula, based on a simplified formulation of the original Penman-Monteith expression, which only requires mean daily or monthly temperature data. The method is evaluated using meteorological records from different areas worldwide, at both the daily and monthly time scales. The outcomes of this extended analysis are very encouraging, as indicated by the substantially high validation scores of the proposed approach across all examined data sets. In general, the parametric model outperforms well-established methods of the everyday practice, since it ensures optimal approximation of potential evapotranspiration.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1549/1/documents/IRLA_paper.pdf (560 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aaspro.2015.03.002
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stan, F.I., G. Neculau, L. Zaharia, G. Ioana-Toroimac, and S. Mihalache, Study on the evaporation and evapotranspiration measured on the Căldăruşani Lake (Romania), Procedia Environmental Sciences, 32, 281–289, doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.033, 2016. |
| 2. | Esquivel-Hernández, G., R. Sánchez-Murillo, C. Birkel, S. P. Good, and J. Boll, Hydro-climatic and ecohydrological resistance/resilience conditions across tropical biomes of Costa Rica, Ecohydrology, 10(6), e1860, doi:10.1002/eco.1860, 2017. |
| 3. | Hodam, S., S. Sarkar, A.G.R. Marak, A. Bandyopadhyay, and A. Bhadra, Spatial interpolation of reference evapotranspiration in India: Comparison of IDW and Kriging methods, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, 98(4), 551-524, doi:10.1007/s40030-017-0241-z, 2017. |
| 4. | Deng, H., and J. Shao, Evapotranspiration and humidity variations in response to land cover conversions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, Journal of Mountain Science, 15(3), 590-605, doi:10.1007/s11629-016-4272-0, 2018. |
| 5. | Nadyozhina, E. D., I. M. Shkolnik, A. V. Sternzat, B. N. Egorov, and A. A. Pikaleva, Evaporation from irrigated lands in arid regions as inferred from the regional climate model and atmospheric boundary layer model simulations, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 43(6), 404-411, doi:10.3103/S1068373918060080, 2018. |
| 6. | Bashir, R., F. Ahmad, and R. Beddoe, Effect of climate change on a monolithic desulphurized tailings cover, Water, 2(9), 2645, doi:10.3390/w12092645, 2020. |
K. Kollyropoulos, G. Antoniou, I. Kalavrouziotis, J. Krasilnikoff, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. N. Angelakis, Hydraulic characteristics of the drainage systems of ancient Hellenic theatres: Case study of the theatre of Dionysus and its implications, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering (ASCE), 141 (11), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000906, 2015.
The content of this article provides interesting history, facts, and information about the drainage systems of ancient theaters in mainland Greece and Asia Minor from prehistoric times until the Hellenistic period. This study comprises representative examples of drainage systems in theaters at Knossos, Phaistos, Dionysus in Athens, Arcadian Orchomenos, Ephesus, and Delos. Moreover, the aim is to demonstrate that these drainage systems represent evolutionary techniques and principles that can still be used today to avoid wasting water resources. Moreover, these techniques may prove attractive for the development of sustainable strategies to counter mounting problems, especially those of a socioeconomic nature. In addition, the article presents evidence for the conception that adaptations to individual environmental and hydraulic characteristics of specific locations were considered in relation to drainage systems of ancient theaters. Thus, through a case study of the carrying capacity of drainage channels at Dionysus ’s theater in Athens, the sustainable nature of this construction is demonstrated, including its capacity for the management of stormwater.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000906
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
A. Tegos, N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A parsimonious regional parametric evapotranspiration model based on a simplification of the Penman-Monteith formula, Journal of Hydrology, 524, 708–717, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.024, 2015.
Evapotranspiration is a key hydrometeorological process and its estimation is important in many fields of hydrological and agricultural sciences. Simplified estimation proves very useful in absence of a complete data set. In this respect, a parametric model based on simplification of the Penman-Monteith formulation is presented. The basic idea of the parametric model is the replacement of some of the variables and constants that are used in the standard Penman-Monteith model by regionally varying parameters, which are estimated through calibration. The model is implemented in various climates on monthly time step (USA, Germany, Spain) and compared on the same basis with four radiation-based methods (Jensen-Haise, McGuiness and Bordne, Hargreaves and Oudin) and two temperature-based (Thornthwaite and Blaney-Criddle). The methodology yields very good results with high efficiency indexes, outperforming the other models. Finally, a spatial analysis including the correlation of parameters with latitude and elevation together with their regionalization through three common spatial interpolation techniques along with a recent approach (Bilinear Surface Smoothing), is performed. Also, the model is validated against Penman-Monteith estimates in eleven stations of the well-known CIMIS network. The total framework which includes the development, the implementation, the comparison and the mapping of parameters illustrates a new parsimonious and high efficiency methodology in the assessment of potential evapotranspiration field.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.03.024
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Hodam, S., S. Sarkar, A.G.R. Marak, A. Bandyopadhyay, and A. Bhadra, Spatial interpolation of reference evapotranspiration in India: Comparison of IDW and Kriging methods, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, 98(4), 551-524, doi:10.1007/s40030-017-0241-z, 2017. |
| 2. | Deng, H., and J. Shao, Evapotranspiration and humidity variations in response to land cover conversions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, Journal of Mountain Science, 15(3), 590–605, doi:10.1007/s11629-016-4272-0, 2018. |
| 3. | Giménez, P. O., and S. G. García-Galiano, Assessing Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensemble-driven reference evapotranspiration over Spain, Water, 10(9), 1181, doi:10.3390/w10091181, 2018. |
| 4. | Zhang, T., Y. Chen, and K. Tha Paw U, Quantifying the impact of climate variables on reference evapotranspiration in Pearl River Basin, China, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1662021, 2019. |
P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climacogram versus autocovariance and power spectrum in stochastic modelling for Markovian and Hurst–Kolmogorov processes, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 29 (6), 1649–1669, doi:10.1007/s00477-015-1023-7, 2015.
Three common stochastic tools, the climacogram i.e. variance of the time averaged process over averaging time scale, the autocovariance function and the power spectrum are compared to each other to assess each one’s advantages and disadvantages in stochastic modelling and statistical inference. Although in theory, all three are equivalent to each other (transformations one another expressing second order stochastic properties), in practical application their ability to characterize a geophysical process and their utility as statistical estimators may vary. In the analysis both Markovian and non Markovian stochastic processes, which have exponential and power-type autocovariances, respectively, are used. It is shown that, due to high bias in autocovariance estimation, as well as effects of process discretization and finite sample size, the power spectrum is also prone to bias and discretization errors as well as high uncertainty, which may misrepresent the process behaviour (e.g. Hurst phenomenon) if not taken into account. Moreover, it is shown that the classical climacogram estimator has small error as well as an expected value always positive, well-behaved and close to its mode (most probable value), all of which are important advantages in stochastic model building. In contrast, the power spectrum and the autocovariance do not have some of these properties. Therefore, when building a stochastic model, it seems beneficial to start from the climacogram, rather than the power spectrum or the autocovariance. The results are illustrated by a real world application based on the analysis of a long time series of high-frequency turbulent flow measurements.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1023-7
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Serinaldi, F., Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-015-1124-3, 2015. |
| 2. | Park, J., C. Onof, and D. Kim, A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 989-1014, doi:10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019. |
A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological modelling of temporally-varying catchments: Facets of change and the value of information, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60 (7-8), 1438–1461, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.982123, 2015.
River basins are by definition temporally varying systems: changes are apparent at every temporal scale, in terms of changing meteorological inputs and catchment characteristics, respectively due to inherently uncertain natural processes and anthropogenic interventions. In an operational context, the ultimate goal of hydrological modelling is predicting responses of the basin under conditions that are similar or different from those observed in the past. Since water management studies require that anthropogenic effects are considered known and a long hypothetical period is simulated, the combined use of stochastic models, for generating the inputs, and deterministic models that also represent the human interventions in modified basins, is found to be a powerful approach for providing realistic and statistically consistent simulations (in terms of product moments and correlations, at multiple time scales, and long-term persistence). The proposed framework is investigated on the Ferson Creek basin (USA) that exhibits significantly growing urbanization during the last 30 years. Alternative deterministic modelling options include a lumped water balance model with one time-varying parameter and a semi-distributed scheme based on the concept of hydrological response units. Model inputs and errors are respectively represented through linear and non-linear stochastic models. The resulting nonlinear stochastic framework maximizes the exploitation of the existing information, by taking advantage of the calibration protocol used in this issue.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.982123
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Thirel, G., V. Andréassian, and C. Perrin, On the need to test hydrological models under changing conditions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1165-1173, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1050027, 2015. |
| 2. | Biao, I. E., S. Gaba, A. E. Alamou, and A. Afouda, Influence of the uncertainties related to the random component of rainfall inflow in the Ouémé River Basin (Benin, West Africa), International Journal of Current Engineering and Technology, 5(3), 1618-1629, 2015. |
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| 12. | Nauditt, A., C. Birkel, C. Soulsby, and L. Ribbe, Conceptual modelling to assess the influence of hydroclimatic variability on runoff processes in data scarce semi-arid Andean catchments, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(4), 515-532, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1240870, 2017. |
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| 16. | Salas, J. D., J. Obeysekera, and R. M. Vogel, Techniques for assessing water infrastructure for nonstationary extreme events: a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63(3), 325-352, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1426858, 2018. |
| 17. | Pathiraja, S., D. Anghileri, P. Burlando, A. Sharma, L. Marshall, and H. Moradkhani, Time varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 2903-2919, doi:10.5194/hess-2017-382, 2018. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Negligent killing of scientific concepts: the stationarity case, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60 (7-8), 1174–1183, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.959959, 2015.
In the scientific vocabulary, the term “process” is used to denote change in time. Even a stationary process describes a system changing in time, rather than a static one which keeps a constant state all the time. However, this is often missed, which has led to misusing the term “nonstationarity” as a synonym of “change”. A simple rule to avoid such misuse is to answer the question: can the change be predicted in deterministic terms? Only if the answer is positive it is legitimate to invoke nonstationarity. In addition, we should have in mind that models are made to simulate the future rather than to describe the past; the past is rather characterized by observations (data). Usually future changes are not deterministically predictable and thus the models should, on the one hand, be stationary and, on the other hand, describe in stochastic terms the full variability, originating from all agents of change. Even if the past evolution of the process of interest contains changes explainable in deterministic terms (e.g. urbanization), again it is better to describe the future conditions in stationary terms, after “stationarizing” the past observations, i.e. adapting them to represent the future conditions.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.959959
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Thirel, G., V. Andréassian, and C. Perrin, On the need to test hydrological models under changing conditions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1050027, 2015. |
| 2. | Andrés-Doménech, I., R. García-Bartual, A. Montanari and J. B. Marco, Climate and hydrological variability: the catchment filtering role, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19 (1), 379-387, 2015. |
| 3. | Serinaldi, F., and C.G. Kilsby, Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes, Advances in Water Resources, 77, 17-36, 2015. |
| 4. | Steinschneider, S., and U. Lall, A hierarchical Bayesian regional model for nonstationary precipitation extremes in Northern California conditioned on tropical moisture exports, Water Resources Research, 51 (3), 1472-1492, 2015. |
| 5. | Ceola, S., B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione and T. Wagener, Virtual laboratories: New opportunities for collaborative water science, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (4), 2101-2117, 2015. |
| 6. | Serinaldi, F., Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-015-1124-3, 2015. |
| 7. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, P. C. D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P. P. J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, and H.-J. Schellnhuber, Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398, 2016. |
N. Malamos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Broken line smoothing for data series interpolation by incorporating an explanatory variable with denser observations: Application to soil-water and rainfall data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.899703, 2015.
Broken line smoothing is a simple technique for smoothing a broken line fit to observational data and provides flexible means for interpolation. Here an extension of this technique is proposed, which can be utilized to perform various interpolation tasks, by incorporating, in an objective manner, an explanatory variable available at a considerably denser dataset than the initial main variable. The technique incorporates smoothing terms with adjustable weights, defined by means of the angles formed by the consecutive segments of two broken lines. The mathematical framework and details of the method as well as practical aspects of its application are presented and discussed. Also, examples using both synthesized and real world (soil water dynamics and hydrological) data are presented to explore and illustrate the methodology.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1436/1/documents/2014HSJ_BrokenLineSmoothing.pdf (507 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.899703
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
A. Sikorska, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological predictions through data-driven resampling techniques, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (ASCE), 20 (1), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000926, 2015.
Estimating the uncertainty of hydrological models remains a relevant challenge in applied hydrology, mostly because it is not easy to parameterize the complex structure of hydrological model errors. A non-parametric technique is proposed as an alternative to parametric error models to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions. Within this approach, the above uncertainty is assumed to depend on input data uncertainty, parameter uncertainty and model error, where the latter aggregates all sources of uncertainty that are not considered explicitly. Errors of hydrological models are simulated by resampling from their past realizations using a nearest neighbor approach, therefore avoiding a formal description of their statistical properties. The approach is tested using synthetic data which refer to the case study located in Italy. The results are compared with those obtained using a formal statistical technique (meta-Gaussian approach) from the same case study. Our findings prove that the nearest neighbor approach provides simplicity in application and a significant improvement in regard to the meta-Gaussian approach. Resampling techniques appear therefore to be an interesting option for uncertainty assessment in hydrology, provided that historical data are available to provide a consistent description of the model error.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000926
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!, Water Resources Research, 50 (12), 9748–9756, doi:10.1002/2014WR016092, 2014.
Environmental change is a reason of relevant concern as it is occurring at an unprecedented pace and might increase natural hazards. Moreover, it is deemed to imply a reduced representativity of past experience and data on extreme hydroclimatic events. The latter concern has been epitomized by the statement that “stationarity is dead”. Setting up policies for mitigating natural hazards, including those triggered by floods and droughts, is an urgent priority in many countries, which implies practical activities of management, engineering design and construction. These latter necessarily need to be properly informed and therefore the research question on the value of past data is extremely important. We herein argue that there are mechanisms in hydrological systems that are time invariant, which may need to be interpreted through data inference. In particular, hydrological predictions are based on assumptions which should include stationarity, as any hydrological model, including deterministic and non-stationary approaches, is affected by uncertainty and therefore should include a random component that is stationary. Given that an unnecessary resort to non-stationarity may imply a reduction of predictive capabilities, a pragmatic approach, based on the exploitation of past experience and data is a necessary prerequisite for setting up mitigation policies for environmental risk.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016092
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Andrés-Doménech, I., R. García-Bartual, A. Montanari and J. B. Marco, Climate and hydrological variability: the catchment filtering role, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19 (1), 379-387, 2015. |
| 2. | Serinaldi, F., and C.G. Kilsby, Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes, Advances in Water Resources, 77, 17-36, 2015. |
| 3. | Yang, L., F. Tian and D. Niyogi, A need to revisit hydrologic responses to urbanization by incorporating the feedback on spatial rainfall patterns, Urban Climate, 12, 128-140, 2015. |
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| 5. | Dhakal, N., S. Jain, A. Gray, M. Dandy and E. Stancioff, Nonstationarity in seasonality of extreme precipitation: A nonparametric circular statistical approach and its application, Water Resources Research, 51 (6), 4499-4515, 2015. |
| 6. | Prosdocimi, I., T.R. Kjeldsen and J.D. Miller, Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models, Water Resources Research, 51 (6), 4244-4262, 2015. |
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| 8. | Serinaldi, F., Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-015-1124-3, 2015. |
| 9. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Quo vadis, hydrology?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1489597, 2018. |
A. Efstratiadis, Y. Dialynas, S. Kozanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A multivariate stochastic model for the generation of synthetic time series at multiple time scales reproducing long-term persistence, Environmental Modelling and Software, 62, 139–152, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.017, 2014.
A time series generator is presented, employing a robust three-level multivariate scheme for stochastic simulation of correlated processes. It preserves the essential statistical characteristics of historical data at three time scales (annual, monthly, daily), using a disaggregation approach. It also reproduces key properties of hydrometeorological and geophysical processes, namely the long-term persistence (Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour), the periodicity and intermittency. Its efficiency is illustrated through two case studies in Greece. The first aims to generate monthly runoff and rainfall data at three reservoirs of the hydrosystem of Athens. The second involves the generation of daily rainfall for flood simulation at five rain gauges. In the first emphasis is given to long-term persistence – a dominant characteristic in the management of large-scale hydrosystems, comprising reservoirs with carry-over storage capacity. In the second we highlight to the consistent representation of intermittency and asymmetry of daily rainfall, and the distribution of annual daily maxima.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.017
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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S. Ceola, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change, WIREs Water, 1 (5), 427–438, doi:10.1002/wat2.1038, 2014.
In an attempt to provide a unified scheme for the simulation of changing behaviors of hydrological systems, a theoretical framework for stationary and non-stationary modeling is presented. The main triggers for hydrological change are reviewed, their impact on the long-term properties of the inherent system are analyzed, and theoretical solutions are proposed for their representation. Model calibration is also discussed along with the impact of hydrological change on simulation uncertainty. Non-stationarity and its simulation are examined as well. We propose a stochastic approach that is general, and allows a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty. The proposed framework is relevant to integrated modeling of hydrology and human impacts and therefore fits into the concepts of ‘Panta Rhei’, the scientific decade 2013–2022 promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1038
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Ceola, S., B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione and T. Wagener, Virtual laboratories: New opportunities for collaborative water science, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (4), 2101-2117, 2015. |
| 2. | Yuan, X., E.F. Wood and Z. Ma, A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development, WIREs Water, 2, 523–536, 10.1002/wat2.1088, 2015. |
C. Pappas, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A quick gap-filling of missing hydrometeorological data, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 119 (15), 9290–9300, doi:10.1002/2014JD021633, 2014.
Data-gaps are ubiquitous in hydrometeorological time series and filling these values remains still a challenge. Since datasets without missing values may be a prerequisite in performing many analyses, a quick and efficient gap-filling methodology is required. In this study the problem of filling sporadic, single-value gaps using time-adjacent observations from the same location is investigated. The applicability of a local average (i.e., based on few neighboring in time observations) is examined and its advantages over the sample average (i.e., using the whole dataset) are illustrated. The analysis reveals that a quick and very efficient (i.e., minimum mean squared estimation error) gap-filling is achieved by combining a strictly local average (i.e., using one observation before and one after the missing value) with the sample mean.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021633
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
D. Koutsoyiannis, Social vs. scientific perception of change in hydrology and climate — Reply to the Discussion by Arie Ben-Zvi on the Opinion Paper “Hydrology and Change”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (8), 1625–1626, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.935382, 2014.
Temporary free access: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/62udMrjdhYVX4TPXjhDs/full
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.935382
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Reply to comment by G. Nearing on ‘‘A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems’’, Water Resources Research, 50 (7), 6264–6268, doi:10.1002/2013WR014987, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1464/1/documents/2014WRR_ReplyToNearing.pdf (204 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014987
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Ceola, S., B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione and T. Wagener, Virtual laboratories: New opportunities for collaborative water science, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (4), 2101-2117, 2015. |
G. Blöschl, A. Bardossy, D. Koutsoyiannis, Z. W. Kundzewicz, I. G. Littlewood, A. Montanari, and H. H. G. Savenije, Joint Editorial—On the future of journal publications in hydrology, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 955–958, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.908041, 2014.
Remarks:
The Joint Editorial was also published in:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1448/1/documents/2014JointEditorial.pdf (67 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.908041
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Montanari, A., Water Resources Research in 2013,Water Resour. Res., 50, 10.1002/2014WR015648, 2014. |
| 2. | Hughes, D. A., K. V. Heal and C. Leduc, Improving the visibility of hydrological sciences from developing countries, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.938653, 2014. |
| 3. | Cudennec, C., and A. De Lavenne, Editorial: Hydrogeomorphology - A long-term scientific interface, Hydrology Research, 46 (2), 175-179, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy: from thermodynamics to hydrology, Entropy, 16 (3), 1287–1314, doi:10.3390/e16031287, 2014.
Some known results from statistical thermophysics as well as from hydrology are revisited from a different perspective trying: (a) to unify the notion of entropy in thermodynamic and statistical/stochastic approaches of complex hydrological systems and (b) to show the power of entropy and the principle of maximum entropy in inference, both deductive and inductive. The capability for deductive reasoning is illustrated by deriving the law of phase change transition of water (Clausius-Clapeyron) from scratch by maximizing entropy in a formal probabilistic frame. However, such deductive reasoning cannot work in more complex hydrological systems with diverse elements, yet the entropy maximization framework can help in inductive inference, necessarily based on data. Several examples of this type are provided in an attempt to link statistical thermophysics with hydrology with a unifying view of entropy.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1432/1/documents/entropy-16-01287_dk.pdf (1265 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e16031287
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Quo vadis, hydrology?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1489597, 2018. |
A. Efstratiadis, A. D. Koussis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Flood design recipes vs. reality: can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted?, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14, 1417–1428, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-1417-2014, 2014.
Despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic approaches that are easy to formally implement in ungauged areas. In general, these "recipes" have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from typically few experimental catchments. However, many of them have been neither updated nor validated across all hydroclimatic and geomorphological conditions. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, on the safety and cost of the related flood protection works. Preliminary results, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision of many aspects of flood engineering procedures is required, including the regionalization formulas as well as the modelling concepts themselves. In order to provide a consistent design framework and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk (a key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive) in ungauged basins, it is necessary to rethink the current engineering practices. In this vein, the collection of reliable hydrological data would be essential for re-evaluating the existing "recipes", taking into account local peculiarities, and for updating the modelling methodologies as needed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1413/7/documents/nhess-14-1417-2014.pdf (207 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/1417/2014/
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 5. | Walega, A., B. Michalec, A. Cupak, and M. Grzebinoga, Comparison of SCS-CN determination methodologies in a heterogeneous catchment, Journal of Mountain Science, 12(5), 1084-1094, doi:10.1007/s11629-015-3592-9, 2015. |
| 6. | Awadallah, A.G., H. Saad, A. Elmoustafa, and A. Hassan, Reliability assessment of water structures subject to data scarcity using the SCS-CN model, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(4), 696-710, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1027709, 2016. |
| 7. | Merheb, M., R. Moussa, C. Abdallah, F. Colin, C. Perrin, and N. Baghdadi, Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(14), 2520-2539, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1140174, 2016. |
| 8. | Kjeldsen, T., H. Kim, C. Jang, and H. Lee, Evidence and implications of nonlinear flood response in a small mountainous watershed, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 21(8), 04016024, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001343, 2016. |
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| 10. | Biondi, D., and D. L. De Luca, Rainfall-runoff model parameter conditioning on regional hydrological signatures: application to ungauged basins in southern Italy, Hydrology Research, 48(3) 714-725, doi:10.2166/nh.2016.097, 2017. |
| 11. | Attakora-Amaniampong, E., E. Owusu-Sekyere, and D. Aboagye, Urban floods and residential rental values nexus in Kumasi, Ghana, Ghana Journal of Development Studies, 13(2), 176-194, 2016. |
| 12. | #Destro, E., E. I. Nikolopoulos, J. D. Creutin, and M. Borga, Floods, Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management, Dalezios, N. R. (editor), Chapter 4, IWA Publishing, 2017. |
| 13. | van Noordwijk, M., L. Tanika, L., and B. Lusiana, Flood risk reduction and flow buffering as ecosystem services – Part 1: Theory on flow persistence, flashiness and base flow, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 2321-2340, doi:10.5194/hess-21-2321-2017, 2017. |
| 14. | Verma, S., R. K. Verma, S. K. Mishra, A. Singh, and G. K. Jayaraj, A revisit of NRCS-CN inspired models coupled with RS and GIS for runoff estimation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(12), 1891-1930, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1334166, 2017. |
| 15. | De Luca, D. L., and D. Biondi, Bivariate return period for design hyetograph and relationship with T-year design flood peak, Water, 9, 673, doi:10.3390/w9090673, 2017. |
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| 17. | Wałęga, A., A. Cupak, D. M. Amatya, and E. Drożdżal, Comparison of direct outflow calculated by modified SCS-CN methods for mountainous and highland catchments in Upper Vistula basin, Poland and Lowland catchment in South Carolina, U.S.A., Acta Sci. Pol. Formatio Circumiectus, 16(1), 187–207, doi:10.15576/ASP.FC/2017.16.1.187, 2017. |
| 18. | #Walker, N. J., K. N. Iipinge, J. D. S. Cullis, D. Scott, J. Mfune, P. Wolski, and C. Jack, Integrating climate change information into long term planning and design for critical water related infrastructure in Windhoek and other African cities, 18th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Symposium, Swakopmund, Namibia, 2017. |
| 19. | Garrote, J., A. Díez-Herrero, J. M. Bodoque, M. A. Perucha, P. L. Mayer, and M. Génova, Flood hazard management in public mountain recreation areas vs. ungauged fluvial basins: Case study of the Caldera de Taburiente National Park, Canary Islands (Spain), Geosciences, 8(1), 6, doi:10.3390/geosciences8010006, 2018. |
| 20. | Petroselli, A., and S. Grimaldi, Design hydrograph estimation in small and fully ungauged basins: a preliminary assessment of the EBA4SUB framework, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11(51), S197–S210, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12193, 2018. |
| 21. | Zin, W., A. Kawasaki, W. Takeuchi, Z. M. L. T. San, K. Z. Htun, T. H. Aye, and S. Win, Flood hazard assessment of Bago river basin, Myanmar, Journal of Disaster Research, 13(1), 14-21, doi:10.20965/jdr.2018.p0014, 2018. |
| 22. | Alipour, M. H., and K. M. Kibler, A framework for streamflow prediction in the world’s most severely data-limited regions: test of applicability and performance in a poorly-gauged region of China, Journal of Hydrology, 557, 41-54, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.019, 2018. |
| 23. | Hdeib, R., C. Abdallah, F. Colin, L. Brocca, and R. Moussa, Constraining coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood model by past storm events and post-event measurements in data-sparse regions, Journal of Hydrology, 565, 160-175, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.008, 2018. |
| 24. | Petroselli, A., M. Vojtek, and J. Vojteková, Flood mapping in small ungauged basins: A comparison of different approaches for two case studies in Slovakia, Hydrology Research, 50(1), 379-392, doi:10.2166/nh.2018.040, 2018. |
| 25. | Gericke, O. J., Catchment response time and design rainfall: the key input parameters for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments, Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, 60(4), 51-67, doi:10.17159/2309-8775/2018/v60n4a6, 2018. |
| 26. | #Trifonova, T. A., D. V. Trifonov, S. I. Abrakhin, V. N. Koneshov, A. V. Nikolaev, and S. M. Arakelian, New verification of the groundwater and tectonic processes possible impact on a series of recent catastrophic floods and debris flows (2011-2017), Debris Flows: Disasters, Risk, Forecast, Protection – Proceedings of the 5th International Conference, S. S. Chernomorets and G. V. Gavardashvili (editors), 606-618, Tbilisi, Georgia, 2018. |
| 27. | Papaioannou, G., A. Loukas, and L. Vasiliades, Flood risk management methodology for lakes and adjacent areas: The lake Pamvotida paradigm, Proceedings, 7, 21, doi:10.3390/ECWS-3-05825, 2019. |
| 28. | Jiang, X., L., Yang, and H. Tatano, Assessing spatial flood risk from multiple flood sources in a small river basin: A method based on multivariate design rainfall, Water, 11(5), 1031, doi:10.3390/w11051031, 2019. |
| 29. | Sarchani, S., and I. Tsanis, Analysis of a flash flood in a small basin in Crete, Water, 11(11), 2253, doi:10.3390/w11112253, 2019. |
| 30. | Walega, A., and T. Salata, Influence of land cover data sources on estimation of direct runoff according to SCS-CN and modified SME methods, Catena, 172, 232-242, doi:10.1016/j.catena.2018.08.032, 2019. |
| 31. | Pinho, J. L. S., L. Vieira, J. M. P. Vieira, S. Venâncio, N. E. Simões, J. A. Sá Marques, and F. S. Santos, Assessing causes and associated water levels for an urban flood using hydroinformatic tools, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 22(1), 61-76, doi:10.2166/hydro.2019.019, 2020. |
| 32. | Wanniarachchi, S. S., and N. T. S. Wijesekera, Challenges in field approximations of regional scale hydrology, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 27, 100647, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100647, 2020. |
| 33. | Fortesa, J., J. Latron, J. García-Comendador, M. Tomàs-Burguera, J. Company, A. Calsamiglia, and J. Estrany, Multiple temporal scales assessment in the hydrological response of small Mediterranean-climate catchments, Water, 12(1), 299, doi:10.3390/w12010299, 2020. |
| 34. | Trifonova, T., D. Trifonov, D. Bukharov, S. Abrakhin, M. Arakelian, and S. Arakelian, Global and regional aspects for genesis of catastrophic floods: The problems of forecasting and estimation for mass and water balance (surface water and groundwater contribution), IntechOpen, doi:10.5772/intechopen.91623, 2020. |
| 35. | Kastridis, A., C. Kirkenidis, and M. Sapountzis, An integrated approach of flash flood analysis in ungauged Mediterranean watersheds using post‐flood surveys and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), Hydrological Processes, 34(25), 4920-4939, doi:10.1002/hyp.13913, 2020. |
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| 39. | Devkota, N., and N. M. Shakya, Development of rainfall-runoff model for extreme storm events in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal, Journal of Engineering Issues and Solutions, 1(1), 158-173, doi:10.3126/joeis.v1i1.36835, 2021. |
| 40. | Almedeij, J., Modified NRCS abstraction method for flood hydrograph generation, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 47(10), 04021042-1, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0001609, 2021. |
| 41. | Zahraei, A., R. Baghbani, and A. Linhoss, Applying a graphical method in evaluation of empirical methods for estimating time of concentration in an arid region, Water, 13(19), 2624, doi:10.3390/w13192624, 2021. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), 2–22, doi:10.2166/nh.2013.092, 2014.
Hydrology has played an important role in the birth of science. Yet practical hydrological knowledge, related to human needs for water storage, transfer and management, existed before the development of natural philosophy and science. In contemporary times, hydrology has had strong links with engineering as its development has been related to the needs of the design and management of water infrastructures. In the 1980s these links were questioned and it was suggested that separating hydrology from engineering would be beneficial for both. It is argued that, thereafter, hydrology, instead of becoming an autonomous science, developed new dependencies, particularly on politically driven agendas. This change of direction in effect demoted the role of hydrology, for example in studying hypothetical or projected climate-related threats. Revisiting past experiences suggests that re-establishing the relationship of hydrology with engineering could be beneficial. The study of change and the implied uncertainty and risk could constitute a field of mutual integration of hydrology and engineering. Engineering experience may help hydrology to appreciate that change is essential for progress and evolution, rather than only having adverse impacts. While the uncertainty and risk cannot be eliminated they can be dealt with in a quantitative and rigorous manner.
Related works:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2013.092
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Littlewood, I. G., and C.-Y. Xu, Editorial: New category of invited papers, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), p. 1, 2014. |
| 2. | François, B., M. Borga,, S. Anquetin, J.D. Creutin, K. Engeland, A.C. Favre, B. Hingray, M.H. Ramos, D. Raynaud, B. Renard, E. Sauquet, J. F. Sauterleute, J. P. Vidal and G. Warland, Integrating hydropower and intermittent climate-related renewable energies: A call for hydrology, Hydrological Processes, 28 (21), 5465-5468, 2014. |
| 3. | Yao, Y., S. Zhao, Y. Zhang, K. Jia and M. Liu, Spatial and decadal variations in potential evapotranspiration of China based on reanalysis datasets during 1982–2010, Atmosphere, 5(4), 737-754, 2014. |
| 4. | Cudennec, C., and A. De Lavenne, Editorial: Hydrogeomorphology - A long-term scientific interface, Hydrology Research, 46 (2), 175-179, 2015. |
| 5. | Vogel, R.M., U. Lall, X. Cai, B. Rajagopalan, P.K. Weiskel, R.P. Hooper and N.C. Matalas, Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water, Water Resources Research, 51 (6), 4409-4430, 2015. |
G. Tsekouras, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes associated with wind and solar energy, Renewable Energy, 63, 624–633, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.018, 2014.
The current model for energy production, based on the intense use of fossil fuels, is both unsustainable and environmentally harmful and consequently, a shift is needed in the direction of integrating the renewable energy sources into the energy balance. However, these energy sources are unpredictable and uncontrollable as they strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological variables such as wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of renewable energy systems we investigate both the properties of marginal distributions and the dependence properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence by estimating and analyzing the Hurst coefficient. To this aim we use time series of wind speed and sunshine duration retrieved from European databases of daily records. We also study a stochastic simulation framework for both wind and solar systems using the software system Castalia, which performs multivariate and multi-time-scale stochastic simulation, in order to conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.018
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Varotsos, C. A., and M. N. Efstathiou, Symmetric scaling properties in global surface air temperature anomalies, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-014-1274-0, 2014. |
| 2. | Abdelaziz, A. Y., Y. G. Hegazy, W. El-Khattam and M.M. Othman, Optimal allocation of stochastically dependent renewable energy based distributed generators in unbalanced distribution networks, Electric Power Systems Research, 119, 34-44, 2015. |
| 3. | #Fortuna, L., S. Nunnari and A. Gallo, A typical day based approach to detrend solar radiation time series, MAED '14 Proceedings of the 3rd ACM International Workshop on Multimedia Analysis for Ecological Data, 25-30, ACM New York, NY, USA, 2014. |
| 4. | Othman, M.M., A.Y. Abdelaziz, Y. G. Hegazi and W. El-Khattam, Approach for modelling stochastically dependent renewable energy-based generators using diagonal band copula, IET Renewable Power Generation, 9 (7), 809-820, 10.1049/iet-rpg.2014.0205, 2015. |
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H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A Bayesian statistical model for deriving the predictive distribution of hydroclimatic variables, Climate Dynamics, 42 (11-12), 2867–2883, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1804-y, 2014.
Recent publications have provided evidence that hydrological processes exhibit a scaling behaviour, also known as the Hurst phenomenon. An appropriate way to model this behaviour is to use the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process. The Hurst-Kolmogorov process entails high autocorrelations even for large lags, as well as high variability even at climatic scales. A problem that, thus, arises is how to incorporate the observed past hydroclimatic data in deriving the predictive distribution of hydroclimatic processes at climatic time scales. Here with the use of Bayesian techniques we create a framework to solve the aforementioned problem. We assume that there is no prior information for the parameters of the process and use a non-informative prior distribution. We apply this method with real-world data to derive the posterior distribution of the parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of various 30-year moving average climatic variables. The marginal distributions we examine are the normal and the truncated normal (for nonnegative variables). We also compare the results with two alternative models, one that assumes independence in time and one with Markovian dependence, and the results are dramatically different. The conclusion is that this framework is appropriate for the prediction of future hydroclimatic variables conditional on the observations.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1804-y
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
A. Efstratiadis, A. Tegos, A. Varveris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessment of environmental flows under limited data availability – Case study of the Acheloos River, Greece, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3-4), 731–750, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.804625, 2014.
The lower course of Acheloos River is an important hydrosystem of Greece, heavily modified by a cascade of four hydropower dams, which is now being extended by two more dams in the upper course. The design of the dams and hydropower facilities that are in operation has not considered any environmental criteria. However, in the last fifty years, numerous methodologies have been proposed to assess the negative impacts of such projects to both the abiotic and biotic environment, and to provide decision support towards establishing appropriate constraints on their operation, typically in terms of minimum flow requirements. In this study, seeking for a more environmental-friendly operation of the hydrosystem, we investigate the outflow policy from the most downstream dam, examining alternative environmental flow approaches. Accounting for data limitations, we recommend the Basic Flow Method, which is parsimonious and suitable for Mediterranean rivers, whose flows exhibit strong variability across seasons. We also show that the wetted perimeter – discharge method, which is an elementary hydraulic approach, provides consistent results, even without using any flow data. Finally, we examine the adaptation of the proposed flow policy (including artificial flooding) to the real-time hydropower generation schedule, and the management of the resulting conflicts.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.804625
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Acreman, M. C., I. C. Overton, J. King, P. Wood, I. G. Cowx, M. J. Dunbar, E. Kendy, and W. Young, The changing role of ecohydrological science in guiding environmental flows, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(3–4), 1–18, 2014. |
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F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Just two moments! A cautionary note against use of high-order moments in multifractal models in hydrology, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 243–255, doi:10.5194/hess-18-243-2014, 2014.
The need of understanding and modelling the space–time variability of natural processes in hydrological sciences produced a large body of literature over the last thirty years. In this context, a multifractal framework provides parsimonious models which can be applied to a widescale range of hydrological processes, and are based on the empirical detection of some patterns in observational data, i.e. a scale invariant mechanism repeating scale after scale. Hence, multifractal analyses heavily rely on available data series and their statistical processing. In such analyses, high order moments are often estimated and used in model identification and fitting as if they were reliable. This paper warns practitioners against the blind use in geophysical time series analyses of classical statistics, which is based upon independent samples typically following distributions of exponential type. Indeed, the study of natural processes reveals scaling behaviours in state (departure from exponential distribution tails) and in time (departure from independence), thus implying dramatic increase of bias and uncertainty in statistical estimation. Surprisingly, all these differences are commonly unaccounted for in most multifractal analyses of hydrological processes, which may result in inappropriate modelling, wrong inferences and false claims about the properties of the processes studied. Using theoretical reasoning and Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the reliability of multifractal methods that use high order moments (> 3) is questionable. In particular, we suggest that, because of estimation problems, the use of moments of order higher than two should be avoided, either in justifying or fitting models. Nonetheless, in most problems the first two moments provide enough information for the most important characteristics of the distribution.
Remarks:
Replies to discussions can also be found in:
http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3505.4325
http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2391.3207
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1343/1/documents/hess-18-243-2014.pdf (731 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-243-2014
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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M. Rianna, A. Efstratiadis, F. Russo, F. Napolitano, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic index method for calculating annual flow duration curves in intermittent rivers, Irrigation and Drainage, 62 (S2), 41–49, doi:10.1002/ird.1803, 2013.
Flow duration curves are useful tools to estimate available surface water resources, at the basin scale. These represent the percentage of time during which discharge values are exceeded, irrespective of their temporal sequence. Annual flow duration curves are useful tools for evaluating all flow quantiles of a river and their confidence intervals, by removing the effects of variability from year to year. However, these tools fail to represent the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers, since they cannot account for zero flows. In this work we propose a technique for calculating annual flow duration curves and their standard deviation in the case of intermittent rivers. In particular, we propose a generalization of the stochastic index method, in which we use the concept of total probability and order statistics. The method is proposed to determine the conditional distribution of positive flows, for given probability dry, and is implemented on three catchments in Italy and Greece, with low (<5%) and high (>40%) frequency of zero flows, respectively.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ird.1803
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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The idea that, in the microscopic world, particles are indistinguishable, interchangeable and without identity has been central in quantum physics. The same idea has been enrolled in statistical thermodynamics even in a classical framework of analysis to make theoretical results agree with experience. In thermodynamics of gases, this hypothesis is associated with several problems, logical and technical. For this case, an alternative theoretical framework is provided, replacing the indistinguishability hypothesis with standard probability and statistics. In this framework, entropy is a probabilistic notion applied to thermodynamic systems and is not extensive per se. Rather, the extensive entropy used in thermodynamics is the difference of two probabilistic entropies. According to this simple view, no paradoxical behaviours, such as the Gibbs paradox, appear. Such a simple probabilistic view within a classical physical framework, in which entropy is none other than uncertainty applicable irrespective of particle size, enables generalization of mathematical descriptions of processes across any type and scale of systems ruled by uncertainty.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsb.2013.08.007
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
E. Kountouri, N. Petrochilos, N. Liaros, V. Oikonomou, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, N. Zarkadoulas, A. Vött, H. Hadler, P. Henning, and T. Willershäuser, The Mycenaean drainage works of north Kopais, Greece: a new project incorporating surface surveys, geophysical research and excavation, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 13 (3), 710–718, doi:10.2166/ws.2013.110, 2013.
The attempt to drain the Kopais Lake was one of the most impressive and ambitious technical works of prehistoric times in Greece, inspiring myths and traditions referring to its construction and operation. The impressive remnants of the Mycenaean hydraulic works represent the most important land reclamation effort during prehistoric Greek antiquity, thus attracting the attention of the international scientific community. Nevertheless, in spite of the minor or extended contemporary surveys, the picture of the prehistoric drainage works in Kopais has remained ambiguous. Concerning the function of these works and their precise date within the Bronze Age, the proposed theories were based solely on indications from surface survey; data stemming from archaeological or geophysical research methods have been largely neglected. A new interdisciplinary project focusing on the interpretation of the Mycenaean drainage works of Kopais has been established and paper presents the results of thefirst study season.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2013.110
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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The new scientific decade 2013–2022 of IAHS, entitled “Panta Rhei – Everything Flows”, is dedicated to research activities on change in hydrology and society. The purpose of Panta Rhei is to reach an improved interpretation of the processes governing the water cycle by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems. The practical aim is to improve our capability to make predictions of water resources dynamics to support sustainable societal development in a changing environment. The concept implies a focus on hydrological systems as a changing interface between environment and society, whose dynamics are essential to determine water security, human safety and development, and to set priorities for environmental management. The Scientific Decade 2013–2022 will devise innovative theoretical blueprints for the representation of processes including change and will focus on advanced monitoring and data analysis techniques. Interdisciplinarity will be sought by increased efforts to bridge with the socio–economic sciences and geosciences in general. This paper presents a summary of the Science Plan of Panta Rhei, its targets, research questions and expected outcomes.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1352/1/documents/2013HSJ_PantaRhei.pdf (803 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.809088
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology and Change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1177–1197, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.804626, 2013.
Since “panta rhei” was pronounced by Heraclitus, hydrology and the objects it studies, such as rivers and lakes, offer grounds to observe and understand change and flux. Change occurs on all time scales, from minute to geological, but our limited senses and life span, as well as the short time window of instrumental observations, restrict our perception to the most apparent daily to yearly variations. As a result, our typical modelling practices assume that natural changes are just a short-term “noise” superimposed to the daily and annual cycles in a scene that is static and invariant in the long run. According to this perception, only an exceptional and extraordinary forcing can produce a long-term change. The hydrologist H. E. Hurst, studying the long flow records of the Nile and other geophysical time series, was the first to observe a natural behaviour, named after him, related to multi-scale change, as well as its implications in engineering designs. Essentially, this behaviour manifests that long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived and, simultaneously, that the future states are much more uncertain and unpredictable on long time horizons than implied by standard approaches. Surprisingly, however, the implications of multi-scale change have not been assimilated in geophysical sciences. A change of perspective is thus needed, in which change and uncertainty are essential parts.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1351/1/documents/2013HSJ_HydrologyAndChange_2.pdf (1977 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.804626
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Kanae, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L. M. Bouweri, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G. R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov, Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2014. |
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| 4. | #Montanari, A., S. Ceola and E. Baratti, Panta Rhei: An evolving scientific decade with a focus on water systems, IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports, 364, 279-284, 2014. |
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| 7. | Thirel, G., V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, J.-N. Audouy, L. Berthet, P. Edwards, N. Folton, C. Furusho, A. Kuentz, J. Lerat, G. Lindström, E. Martin, T. Mathevet, R. Merz, J. Parajka, D. Ruelland, and J. Vaze, Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1184-1199, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.9672482014, 2015. |
| 8. | Cudennec, C., and A. De Lavenne, Editorial: Hydrogeomorphology - A long-term scientific interface, Hydrology Research, 46 (2), 175-179, 2015. |
| 9. | Kundzewicz, Z.W. Farewell, HSJ!—address from the retiring editor, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2015.1058627, 2015. |
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| 14. | Elferchichi, A., G. A. Giorgio, N. Lamaddalena, M. Ragosta, and V. Telesca, Variability of temperature and its impact on reference evapotranspiration: the test case of the Apulia region (Southern Italy), Sustainability, 9(12), 2337, doi:10.3390/su9122337, 2017. |
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S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Battle of extreme value distributions: A global survey on extreme daily rainfall, Water Resources Research, 49 (1), 187–201, doi:10.1029/2012WR012557, 2013.
Theoretically, if the distribution of daily rainfall is known or justifiably assumed, then one could argue, based on extreme value theory, that the distribution of the annual maxima of daily rainfall would resemble one of the three limiting types: (a) type I, known as Gumbel, type II, known as Fréchet and, type III, known as reversed Weibull. Yet, the parent distribution usually is not known and often only records of annual maxima are available. Thus, the question that naturally arises is which one of the three types better describes the annual maxima of daily rainfall. The question is of great importance as the naïve adoption of a particular type may lead to serious underestimation or overestimation of the return period assigned to specific rainfall amounts. To answer this question, we analyze the annual maximum daily rainfall of 15 137 records from all over the world, with lengths varying from 40 to 163 years. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, which comprises the three limiting types as special cases for specific values of its shape parameter, and analyze the fitting results focusing on the behavior of the shape parameter. The analysis reveals that: (a) the record length strongly affects the estimate of the GEV shape parameter and long records are needed for reliable estimates, (b) when the effect of the record length is corrected the shape parameter varies in a narrow range, (c) the geographical location of the globe may affect the value of the shape parameter, and (d) the winner of this battle is the Fréchet law.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012557
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 13. | Serinaldi, F., A. Bárdossy and C. G. Kilsby, Upper tail dependence in rainfall extremes: would we know it if we saw it?, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-014-0946-8, 2014. |
| 14. | Cheng, L., A. AghaKouchak, E. Gilleland and R. W. Katz, Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5, 2014. |
| 15. | Caloiero, T., A.A. Pasqua and O. Petrucci, Damaging hydrogeological events: A procedure for the assessment of severity levels and an application to Calabria (Southern Italy), Water, 6 (12), 3652-3670, 2014. |
| 16. | Serinaldi, F., and C.G. Kilsby, Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes, Advances in Water Resources, 77, 17-36, 2015. |
| 17. | Cannon, A.J., An intercomparison of regional and at-site rainfall extreme value analyses in southern British Columbia, Canada, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 42 (2), 107-119, 2015. |
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| 19. | Marani, M., and M. Ignaccolo, A metastatistical approach to rainfall extremes, Advances in Water Resources, 79, 121-126, 2015. |
| 20. | Basso, S., M. Schirmer and G. Botter, On the emergence of heavy-tailed streamflow distributions, Advances in Water Resources, 82, 98-105, 2015. |
| 21. | Cavanaugh, N.R., A. Gershunov, A.K. Panorska and T.J. Kozubowski, The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (5), 1560-1567, 2015. |
| 22. | Cheng, L., T.J. Phillips and A. AghaKouchak, Non-stationary return levels of CMIP5 multi-model temperature extremes, Climate Dynamics, 44 (11-12), 2947-2963, 2015. |
| 23. | Alam, M.S., and A. Elshorbagy, Quantification of the climate change-induced variations in Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves in the Canadian Prairies, Journal of Hydrology, 527, 990-1005, 2015. |
| 24. | Ganora, D. and F. Laio, Hydrological applications of the Burr distribution: practical method for parameter estimation, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001203, 04015024, 2015. |
| 25. | Boers, N., B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan and J. Kurths, Spatiotemporal characteristics and synchronization of extreme rainfall in South America with focus on the Andes Mountain range, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-015-2601-6, 2015. |
| 26. | Tenório da Costa, K., and W. dos Santos Fernandes, Evaluation of the type of probability distribution of annual maximum daily flows in Brazil [Avaliação do tipo de distribuição de probabilidades das vazões máximas diárias anuais no Brasil], Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, 20 (2), 442 – 451, 2015. |
Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: Connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, Surveys in Geophysics, 34 (2), 181–207, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9, 2013.
We overview studies of the natural variability of past climate, as seen from available proxy information, and its attribution to deterministic or stochastic controls. Furthermore, we characterize this variability over the widest possible range of scales that the available information allows, and we try to connect the deterministic Milankovitch cycles with the Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics. To this aim, we analyse two instrumental series of global temperature and eight proxy series with varying lengths from 2 thousand to 500 million years. In our analysis, we use a simple tool, the climacogram, which is the logarithmic plot of standard deviation versus time scale, and its slope can be used to identify the presence of HK dynamics. By superimposing the climacograms of the different series, we obtain an impressive overview of the variability for time scales spanning almost nine orders of magnitude—from 1 month to 50 million years. An overall climacogram slope of −0.08 supports the presence of HK dynamics with Hurst coefficient of at least 0.92. The orbital forcing (Milankovitch cycles) is also evident in the combined climacogram at time scales between 10 and 100 thousand years. While orbital forcing favours predictability at the scales it acts, the overview of climate variability at all scales suggests a big picture of irregular change and uncertainty of Earth’s climate.
Remarks:
Blog posts and discussions can be seen in Watts Up With That? (reproduced in I4U News), Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr., Bishop Hill blog (reproduced in I4U News-2), The Resilient Earth (reproduced in The Global Warming Policy Foundation), Climate ExChange, Science Alerts, Science & Environmental Policy Project: Newsletter (reproduced in the Third Millennium Times), Archaeopteryx.
Errata: See some minor corrections in the related pdf file linked above. URL of the Corrigendum: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-014-9278-y
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9208-9
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Varotsos, C. A., M. N. Efstathiou and A. P. Cracknell, On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5243-5253, 2013. |
| 2. | Thompson, S. E., M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari and G. and Blöschl, Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013-5039, 2013. |
| 3. | Fleming, S. W., A non-uniqueness problem in the identification of power-law spectral scaling for hydroclimatic time series, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 73–84, 2014. |
| 4. | Glatzle, A., Questioning key conclusions of FAO publications ‘Livestock’s Long Shadow’ (2006) appearing again in ‘Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock’ (2013), Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice, 10.1186/2041-7136-4-1, 2014. |
| 5. | Hall, J., B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z.W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione and G. Blöschl, Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735-2772, 10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014. |
| 6. | Soon, W., V. M. Velasco Herrera, K. Selvaraj, R. Traversi, I. Usoskin, C.-T. A. Chen, J.-Y. Lou, S.-J. Kao, R. M. Carter, V. Pipin, M. Severi, S. Becagli, A review of Holocene solar-linked climatic variation on centennial to millennial timescales: Physical processes, interpretative frameworks and a new multiple cross-wavelet transform algorithm, Earth-Science Reviews, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.003, 2014. |
| 7. | Varotsos, C. A., C. L. E. Franzke, M. N. Efstathiou and A. G. Degermendzhi, Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 116 (1-2), 51-60, 2014. |
| 8. | Østvand, L., K. Rypdal and M. Rypdal, Statistical significance of rising and oscillatory trends in global ocean and land temperature in the past 160 years, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 327-362, 10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, 2014. |
| 9. | Glatzle, A., Severe methodological deficiencies associated with claims of domestic livestock driving climate change, Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, B 2, 586-601, 2014. |
| 10. | Arheimer, B., and G. Lindström, Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19 (2), 771-784, 2015. |
| 11. | Lovejoy, S., A voyage through scales, a missing quadrillion and why the climate is not what you expect, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-014-2324-0, 2014. |
| 12. | Markovic, D., and M. Koch, Stream response to precipitation variability: A spectral view based on analysis and modelling of hydrological cycle components, Hydrological Processes, 29 (7), 1806-1816, 2015. |
| 13. | Fan, L., H. Wang, W. Lai and C. Wang, Administration of water resources in Beijing: Problems and countermeasures, Water Policy, 17 (4), 563-580, 2015. |
H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. Kozanis, An algorithm to construct Monte Carlo confidence intervals for an arbitrary function of probability distribution parameters, Computational Statistics, 28 (4), 1501–1527, doi:10.1007/s00180-012-0364-7, 2013.
We derive a new algorithm for calculating an exact confidence interval for a parameter of location or scale family, based on a two-sided hypothesis test on the parameter of interest, using some pivotal quantities. We use this algorithm to calculate approximate confidence intervals for the parameter or a function of the parameter of one-parameter continuous distributions. After appropriate heuristic modifications of the algorithm we use it to obtain approximate confidence intervals for a parameter or a function of parameters for multi-parameter continuous distributions. The advantage of the algorithm is that it is general and gives a fast approximation of an exact confidence interval. Some asymptotic (analytical) results are shown which validate the use of the method under certain regularity conditions. In addition, numerical results of the method compare well with those obtained by other known methods of the literature on the exponential, the normal, the gamma and the Weibull distribution.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00180-012-0364-7
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Campos, J. N.B., F. A. Souza Filho and H. V.C. Lima, Risks and uncertainties in reservoir yield in highly variable intermittent rivers: Case of the Castanhão Reservoir in semi-arid Brazil, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1184-1195, 2014. |
S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Makropoulos, How extreme is extreme? An assessment of daily rainfall distribution tails, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 851–862, doi:10.5194/hess-17-851-2013, 2013.
The upper part of a probability distribution, usually known as the tail, governs both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme events. The tail behaviour of all probability distributions may be, loosely speaking, categorized in two families: heavy-tailed and light-tailed distributions, with the latter generating more “mild” and infrequent extremes compared to the former. This emphasizes how important for hydrological design is to assess correctly the tail behaviour. Traditionally, the wet-day daily rainfall has been described by light-tailed distributions like the Gamma, although heavier-tailed distributions have also been proposed and used, e.g. the Lognormal, the Pareto, the Kappa, and others. Here, we investigate the issue of tails for daily rainfall by comparing the up- per part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with four common theoretical tails: those of the Pareto, Lognormal, Weibull and Gamma distributions. Specifically, we use 15 029 daily rainfall records from around the world with record lengths from to 163 yr. The analysis shows that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the observed rainfall extremes than the more often used lighter tailed distributions, with clear implications on extreme event modelling and engineering design.
Remarks:
The initial version of the article and the discussion in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions (9, 5757–5778, 2012) can be seen at http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-5757-2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1231/1/documents/hess-17-851-2013.pdf (3389 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-851-2013
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Breinl, K., T. Turkington and M. Stowasser, Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation for applications in risk management, Journal of Hydrology, 498, 23-35, 2013. |
| 2. | #Adirosi, E., L. Baldini, F. Lombardo, F. Russo and F. Napolitano, Comparison of different fittings of experimental DSD, AIP Conference Proceedings, 1558, 1669-1672, 2013. |
| 3. | Hitchens, N. M., H. E. Brooks and R. S. Schumacher, Spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy hourly rainfall in the United States, Mon. Wea. Rev, 141, 4564–4575, 2013. |
| 4. | Panagoulia, D., and E. I. Vlahogianni, Non-linear dynamics and recurrence analysis of extreme precipitation for observed and general circulation model generated climates, Hydrological Processes, 28(4), 2281–2292, 2014. |
| 5. | Serinaldi, F., and C. G. Kilsby, Simulating daily rainfall fields over large areas for collective risk estimation, Journal of Hydrology, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.043, 2014. |
| 6. | Serinaldi, F., and C. G. Kilsby, Rainfall extremes: Toward reconciliation after the battle of distributions, Water Resources Research, 50 (1), 336-352, 2014. |
| 7. | Breinl, K., T. Turkington and M. Stowasser, Simulating daily precipitation and temperature: a weather generation framework for assessing hydrometeorological hazards, Meteorological Applications, 10.1002/met.1459, 2014. |
| 8. | Alghazali, N. O. S., and D. A. H. Alawadi, Fitting statistical distributions of monthly rainfall for some Iraqi stations, Civil and Environmental Research, 6 (6), 40-46, 2014. |
| 9. | Neykov, N. M., P. N. Neytchev and W. Zucchini, Stochastic daily precipitation model with a heavy-tailed component, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14 (9), 2321-2335, 2014. |
| 10. | Salinas, J. L., A. Castellarin, A. Viglione, S. Kohnová and T. R. Kjeldsen, Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4381-4389, 10.5194/hess-18-4381-2014, 2014. |
| 11. | #Keighley, T., T. Longden, S. Mathew and S. Trück, Quantifying Catastrophic and Climate Impacted Hazards Based on Local Expert Opinions, FEEM Working Paper No. 093.2014, 2014. |
| 12. | Serinaldi, F., and C.G. Kilsby, Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes, Advances in Water Resources, 77, 17-36, 2015. |
| 13. | Li, Z., Z. Li, W. Zhao and Y. Wang, Probability modeling of precipitation extremes over two river basins in northwest of China, Advances in Meteorology, art. no. 374127, 10.1155/2015/374127, 2015. |
| 14. | Adirosi, E., L. Baldini, L. Lombardo, F. Russo, F. Napolitano, E. Volpi and A. Tokay, Comparison of different fittings of drop spectra for rainfall retrievals, Advances in Water Resources, 83, 55-67, 2015. |
| 15. | Cavanaugh, N.R., A. Gershunov, A.K. Panorska and T.J. Kozubowski, The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (5), 1560-1567, 2015. |
| 16. | Sherly, M., S. Karmakar, T. Chan and C. Rau, Design rainfall framework using multivariate parametric-nonparametric approach, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001256, 04015049, 2015. |
| 17. | Bellprat, O., F.C. Lott, C. Gulizia, H.R. Parker, L.A. Pampuch, I. Pinto, A. Ciavarella, P.A. Stott, Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective, Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 36-46, 2015. |
A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A blueprint for process-based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems, Water Resources Research, 48, W09555, doi:10.1029/2011WR011412, 2012.
We present a probability based theoretical scheme for building process-based models of uncertain hydrological systems, thereby unifying hydrological modeling and uncertainty assessment. Uncertainty for the model output is assessed by estimating the related probability distribution via simulation, thus shifting from one to many applications of the selected hydrological model. Each simulation is performed after stochastically perturbing input data, parameters and model output, this latter by adding random outcomes from the population of the model error, whose probability distribution is conditioned on input data and model parameters. Within this view randomness, and therefore uncertainty, is treated as an inherent property of hydrological systems. We discuss the related assumptions as well as the open research questions. The theoretical framework is illustrated by presenting real-world and synthetic applications. The relevant contribution of this study is related to proposing a statistically consistent simulation framework for uncertainty estimation which does not require model likelihood computation and simplification of the model structure. The results show that uncertainty is satisfactorily estimated although the impact of the assumptions could be significant in conditions of data scarcity.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011412
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Montanari, A., Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3739-3747, 2012. |
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| 3. | Beven, K., So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy, Hydrological Processes, 27 (11), 1677-168, 2013. |
| 4. | Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., and R. Rojas, A model-independent Particle Swarm Optimisation software for model calibration, Environmental Modelling & Software, 43, 5-25, 2013. |
| 5. | Weijs, S. V., N. van de Giesen and M.B. Parlange, HydroZIP: How hydrological knowledge can be used to improve compression of hydrological data, Entropy, 15, 1289-1310, 2013. |
| 6. | Del Giudice, D., M. Honti, A. Scheidegger, C. Albert, P. Reichert and J. Rieckermann, Improving uncertainty estimation in urban hydrological modeling by statistically describing bias, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4209-4225, 2013. |
| 7. | Hrachowitz, M., H.H.G. Savenije, G. Blöschl, J.J. McDonnell, M. Sivapalan, J.W. Pomeroy, B. Arheimer, T. Blume, M.P. Clark, U. Ehret, F. Fenicia, J.E. Freer, A. Gelfan, H.V. Gupta, D.A. Hughes, R.W. Hut, A. Montanari, S. Pande, D. Tetzlaff, P.A. Troch, S. Uhlenbrook, T. Wagener, H.C. Winsemius, R.A. Woods, E. Zehe, and C. Cudennec, A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) — a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198-1255, 2013. |
| 8. | Thompson, S. E., M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari and G. and Blöschl, Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013-5039, 2013. |
| 9. | Beven, K., and P. Young, A guide to good practice in modelling semantics for authors and referees, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/wrcr.20393, 2013. |
| 10. | Beven, K., and A. Binley, GLUE: twenty years on, Hydrological Processes, 10.1002/hyp.10082, 2013. |
| 11. | Sikorska, A. E., A. Scheidegger, K. Banasik and J. Rieckermann, Considering rating curve uncertainty in water level predictions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4415-4427, 2013. |
| 12. | Paschalis, A., P. Molnar, S. Fatichi and P. Burlando, A stochastic model for high resolution space‐time precipitation simulation, Water Resources Research, 49 (12), 8400-8417, 2013. |
| 13. | Hall, J., B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z.W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione and G. Blöschl, Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735-2772, 10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014. |
| 14. | Mazzoleni, M., B. Bacchi, S. Barontini, G. Di Baldassarre, M. Pilotti and R. Ranzi, Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy, J. Hydrol. Eng., 19 (4), 717-731, 2014. |
| 15. | Gupta, H. V., C. Perrin, G. Blöschl, A. Montanari, R. Kumar, M. Clark and V. Andréassian, Large-sample hydrology: a need to balance depth with breadth, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 18, 463-477, 2014. |
| 16. | Evin, G., M. Thyer, D. Kavetski, D. McInerney and G. Kuczera, Comparison of joint versus postprocessor approaches for hydrological uncertainty estimation accounting for error autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/2013WR014185, 2014. |
| 17. | Gupta, H. V., and G. S. Nearing, Debates—the future of hydrological sciences: A (common) path forward? Using models and data to learn: A systems theoretic perspective on the future of hydrological science, Water Resources Research, 50 (6), 5351-5359, 2014. |
| 18. | Shahzad, K. M., and E. J. Plate, Flood forecasting for the Mekong with data‐based models, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/2013WR015072, 2014. |
| 19. | Nearing, G., Comment on “A blueprint for process‐based modeling of uncertain hydrological systems” by Alberto Montanari and Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Water Resources Research, 50 (7), 1944-7973, 10.1002/2013WR014812, 2014. |
| 20. | Peeters, L. J. M., G. M. Podger, T. Smith, T. Pickett, R. H. Bark and S. M. Cuddy, Robust global sensitivity analysis of a river management model to assess nonlinear and interaction effects, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3777-3785, 10.5194/hess-18-3777-2014, 2014. |
| 21. | Kumar Mishra, B., and S. Herath, Assessment of future floods in the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal using bias-corrected daily GCM precipitation data, J. Hydrol. Eng. , 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001090, 2014. |
| 22. | Shahzad, K.M., and E.J. Plate, Flood forecasting for river Mekong with data-based models, Water Resources Research, 50 (9), 7115-7133, 2014. |
| 23. | Beven, K., and P. Smith, Concepts of information content and likelihood in parameter calibration for hydrological simulation models, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20 (1), 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000991, art. no. A4014010, 2015. |
| 24. | Mendoza, P.A., M.P. Clark, M. Barlage, B. Rajagopalan, L. Samaniego, G. Abramowitz and H. Gupta, Are we unnecessarily constraining the agility of complex process-based models?, Water Resources Research, 51 (1), 716-728, 2015. |
| 25. | Clark, M.P., B. Nijssen, J.D. Lundquist, D. Kavetski, D.E. Rupp, R.A. Woods, J.E. Freer, E.D. Gutmann, A.W. Wood, L.D. Brekke, J.R. Arnold, D.J. Gochis and R.M Rasmussen, A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept, Water Resources Research, 51 (4), 2498-2514, 2015. |
| 26. | Clark, M.P., B. Nijssen, J.D. Lundquist, D. Kavetski, D.E. Rupp, R.A. Woods, J.E. Freer, E.D. Gutmann, A.W. Wood, D.J. Gochis, R.M. Rasmussen, D.G. Tarboton, V. Mahat, G.N. Flerchinger and D.G. Marks, A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 2. Model implementation and case studies, Water Resources Research, 51 (4), 2515-2542, 2015. |
| 27. | Ceola, S., B. Arheimer, E. Baratti, G. Blöschl, R. Capell, A. Castellarin, J. Freer, D. Han, M. Hrachowitz, Y. Hundecha, C. Hutton, G. Lindström, A. Montanari, R. Nijzink, J. Parajka, E. Toth, A. Viglione and T. Wagener, Virtual laboratories: New opportunities for collaborative water science, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (4), 2101-2117, 2015. |
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| 29. | Safari, A., and F. De Smedt, Improving the confidence in hydrologic model calibration and prediction by transformation of model residuals, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20 (9), 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001141, 04015001, 2015. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Reply to the Comment by T. López-Arias on “Clausius-Clapeyron equation and saturation vapour pressure: simple theory reconciled with practice”, European Journal of Physics, 33, L13–L14, 2012.
In agreement with the Comment on my paper it is clarified that the atmosphere does not involve a mechanism to ‘hold’ water vapour but rather it ‘contains’ it.
Remarks:
The Comment can be found in http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0143-0807/33/3/L11
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0143-0807/33/3/L13
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Kanae, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L. M. Bouweri, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G. R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov, Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2014. |
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Rainfall downscaling in time: Theoretical and empirical comparison between multifractal and Hurst-Kolmogorov discrete random cascades, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1052–1066, 2012.
During the last three or four decades, intensive research has focused on techniques capable of generating rainfall time series at a certain time scale which are (fully or partially) consistent with a given series at a coarser time scale. Here we theoretically investigate the consequences on the ensemble statistical behaviour caused by the structure of a simple and widely used approach of stochastic downscaling for rainfall time series: discrete Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC). We show that synthetic rainfall time series generated by MRC models correspond to a stochastic process which is non-stationary, since its temporal autocorrelation structure depends on the position in time in an undesirable manner. Then, we propose and theoretically analyze an alternative downscaling approach based on the Hurst-Kolmogorov process (HKp), which is equally simple but is stationary. Finally, we provide Monte Carlo experiments, which validate our theoretical results.
Remarks:
Featured article of Hydrological Sciences Journal.
For this article the authors Federico Lombardo and Elena Volpi received the 2013 Tison Award of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), which is granted to young scientists (under 41) for an outstanding paper published by IAHS in the last two years.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.695872
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Resta, M., Hurst exponent and its applications in time-series analysis, Recent Patents on Computer Science, 5 (3), 211-219, 2012. |
| 2. | Lisniak, D., J. Franke and C. Bernhofer, Circulation pattern based parameterization of a multiplicative random cascade for disaggregation of observed and projected daily rainfall time series, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2487-2500, 10.5194/hess-17-2487-2013, 2013. |
| 3. | Paschalis, A., P. Molnar, S. Fatichi and P. Burlando, On temporal stochastic modeling of precipitation, nesting models across scales, Advances in Water Resources, 63, 152-166, 2014. |
| 4. | Cheng, Q., Generalized binomial multiplicative cascade processes and asymmetrical multifractal distributions, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 477-487, 10.5194/npg-21-477-2014, 2014. |
| 5. | De Luca, D., Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.926013, 2014. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Clausius-Clapeyron equation and saturation vapour pressure: simple theory reconciled with practice, European Journal of Physics, 33 (2), 295–305, doi:10.1088/0143-0807/33/2/295, 2012.
While the Clausius-Clapeyron equation is very important as it determines the saturation vapour pressure, in practice it is replaced by empirical, typically Magnus type, equations which are more accurate. It is shown that the reduced accuracy reflects an inconsistent assumption that the latent heat of vaporization is constant. Not only is this assumption unnecessary and excessive, but it is also contradictory to entropy maximization. Removing this assumption and using a pure entropy maximization framework we obtain a simple closed solution, which is both theoretically consistent and accurate. Our discussion and derivation are relevant to students and specialists in statistical thermophysics and in geophysical sciences, and our results are ready for practical application in physics as well as in such disciplines as hydrology, meteorology and climatology.
Remarks:
A much funnier proof can be found in http://www.itia.ntua.gr/1432/ (section 3.6)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0143-0807/33/2/295
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar, ResearchGate or ResearchGate (additional)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 4. | Bhattarai, S., J. H. Oh, S. H. Euh, D. H. Kim and L. Yu, Simulation study for pneumatic conveying drying of sawdust for pellet production, Drying Technology, 32(10), 1142-1156, 2014. |
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| 6. | Sarkar, M., A new theoretical formulation of dew point temperatures applicable for comfort air-cooling systems, Energy and Buildings, 86, 243-256, 10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.10.029, 2015. |
| 7. | Girona, T., F. Costa, B. Taisne, B. Aggangan and S. Ildefonso, Fractal degassing from Erebus and Mayon volcanoes revealed by a new method to monitor H2O emission cycles, Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth, 120 (5), 2988-3002, 2015. |
| 8. | Kakade, R.S., Least-enthalpy based control of cabin air recirculation, SAE Technical Papers, 2015-01-0372, 10.4271/2015-01-0372, 2015. |
| 9. | Žitnik, M., K. Bučar, B. Hiti, Ž. Barba, Z. Rupnik, A. Založnik, E. Žitnik, I. Rodrìguez, I. Mihevc and J. Žibert, Exercise-induced effects on a gym atmosphere, Indoor Air, 10.1111/ina.12226, 2015. |
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S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy based derivation of probability distributions: A case study to daily rainfall, Advances in Water Resources, 45, 51–57, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.11.007, 2012.
The principle of maximum entropy, along with empirical considerations, can provide consistent basis for constructing a consistent probability distribution model for highly varying geophysical processes. Here we examine the potential of using this principle with the Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy definition in the probabilistic modelling of rainfall in different areas worldwide. We define and theoretically justify specific simple and general entropy maximization constraints which lead to two flexible distributions, i.e., the three-parameter Generalized Gamma (GG) and the four-parameter Generalized Beta of the second kind (GB2), with the former being a particular limiting case of the latter. We test the theoretical results in 11 519 daily rainfall records across the globe. The GB2 distribution seems to be able to describe all empirical records while two of its specific three-parameter cases, the GG and the Burr Type XII distributions perform very well by describing the 97.6% and 87.7% of the empirical records, respectively.
Remarks:
Correction: As indicated in the attached pdfs, a caret '^' is missing above μ_G in eqn. (7).
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.11.007
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Zhang, L., and V. P. Singh, Bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis using entropy and copula theories, Entropy, 14, 1784-1812, 2012. |
| 2. | Kumphon, B., Maximum entropy and maximum likelihood estimation for the three-parameter kappa distribution, Open Journal of Statistics, 2 (4), 415-419, doi: 10.4236/ojs.2012.24050, 2012. |
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| 4. | Weijs, S. V., N. van de Giesen and M.B. Parlange, HydroZIP: How hydrological knowledge can be used to improve compression of hydrological data, Entropy, 15, 1289-1310, 2013, |
| 5. | Paschalis, A., P. Molnar, S. Fatichi and P. Burlando, On temporal stochastic modeling of precipitation, nesting models across scales, Advances in Water Resources, 63, 152-166, 2014. |
| 6. | Serinaldi, F., and C. G. Kilsby, Rainfall extremes: Toward reconciliation after the battle of distributions, Water Resources Research, 50 (1), 336-352, 2014. |
| 7. | Zhe, L. D. Yang, Y. Hong, J. Zhang and Y. Qi, Characterizing spatiotemporal variations of hourly rainfall by gauge and radar in the mountainous three gorges region, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 873–889, 2014. |
| 8. | Ridolfi, E., L. Alfonso, G. Di Baldassarre, F. Dottori, F. Russo, and F. Napolitano, An entropy approach for the optimization of cross-section spacing for river modelling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 126-137, 2014. |
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| 11. | Hao, Z., and V.P. Singh, Integrating entropy and copula theories for hydrologic modeling and analysis, Entropy, 17 (4), 2253-2280, 2015. |
| 12. | Fan, Y.R., W.W. Huang, G.H. Huang, K. Huang, Y.P. Li, and X.M. Kong, Bivariate hydrologic risk analysis based on a coupled entropy-copula method for the Xiangxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, 10.1007/s00704-015-1505-z, 2015. |
S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Can a simple stochastic model generate rich patterns of rainfall events?, Journal of Hydrology, 411 (3-4), 279–289, 2011.
Several of the existing rainfall models involve diverse assumptions, a variety of uncertain parameters, complicated mechanistic structures, use of different model schemes for different time scales, and possibly classifications of rainfall patterns into different types. However, the parsimony of a model is recognized as an important desideratum as it improves its comprehensiveness, its applicability and possibly its predictive capacity. To investigate the question if a single and simple stochastic model can generate a plethora of temporal rainfall patterns, as well as to detect the major characteristics of such a model (if it exists), a data set with very fine timescale rainfall is used. This is the well-known data set of the University of Iowa comprising measurements of seven storm events at a temporal resolution of 5-10 seconds. Even though only seven such events have been observed, their diversity can help investigate these issues. An evident characteristic resulting from the stochastic analysis of the events is the scaling behaviours both in state and in time. Utilizing these behaviours, a stochastic model is constructed which can represent all rainfall events and all rich patterns, thus suggesting a positive reply to the above question. In addition, it seems that the most important characteristics of such a model are a power-type distribution tail and an asymptotic power-type autocorrelation function. Both power-type distribution tails and autocorrelation functions can be viewed as properties enhancing randomness and uncertainty, or entropy.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.008
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Resta, M., Hurst exponent and its applications in time-series analysis, Recent Patents on Computer Science, 5 (3), 211-219, 2012. |
| 2. | Kane, I. L., and F. Yusof, Assessment of risk of rainfall events with a hybrid of ARFIMA-GARCH, Modern Applied Science, 7 (12), 78-89, 2013. |
| 3. | #Majumder, M., and R.N. Barman, Application of artificial neural networks in short-term rainfall forecasting, Application of Nature Based Algorithm in Natural Resource Management, 43-58, 2013. |
| 4. | Brigode, P., P. Bernardara, E. Paquet, J. Gailhard, F. Garavaglia, R. Merz, Z. Mic̈ovic̈, D. Lawrence and P. Ribstein, Sensitivity analysis of SCHADEX extreme flood estimations to observed hydrometeorological variability, Water Resources Research, 50 (1), 353-370, 2014. |
| 5. | Kormos, P.R., J.P. McNamara, M.S. Seyfried, H.P. Marshall, D. Marks and A.N. Flores, Bedrock infiltration estimates from a catchment water storage-based modeling approach in the rain snow transition zone, Journal of Hydrology, 525, 231-248, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, and N. Mamassis, Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (7), 1334–1339, doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.610759, 2011.
Remarks:
The full text is available at the journal's web site: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.610759
Huard's Discussion can be accessed again from the journal's web site: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.610758
Weblog discussions can be seen in Climate Science, ABC News Watch, Fabius Maximus, Itia.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1140/1/documents/2011HSJ_OpeningClosedEyes.pdf (88 KB)
Additional material:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Jiang, P., M. R. Gautam, J. Zhu and Z. Yu, How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?, Journal of Hydrology, 479, 75-85, 2013. |
| 2. | Chun, K. P., H. S. Wheater, and C. Onof, Comparison of drought projections using two UK weather generators, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(2), 1–15, 2013. |
| 3. | #Ranzi, R., Influence of climate and anthropogenic feedbacks on the hydrological cycle, water management and engineering, Proceedings of 2013 IAHR World Congress, 2013. |
| 4. | Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Kanae, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L. M. Bouweri, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G. R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov, Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 1-28, doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.857411, 2014. |
| 5. | #Jiménez Cisneros, B.E., T. Oki, N.W. Arnell, G. Benito, J.G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang, and S.S. Mwakalila, Freshwater resources. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 229-269, 2014. |
| 6. | Hesse, C., V. Krysanova, A. Stefanova, M. Bielecka, and D. A. Domnin, Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(5), 890-911, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.967247, 2015. |
| 7. | Nayak, P. C., R. Wardlaw, and A. K. Kharya, Water balance approach to study the effect of climate change on groundwater storage for Sirhind command area in India, International Journal of River Basin Management, 13(2), 243-261, doi:10.1080/15715124.2015.1012206, 2015. |
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| 9. | Kara, F., I. Yucel, and Z. Akyurek, Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation of water supply area in Istanbul: Use of ensemble climate modelling and geo-statistical downscaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(14), 2481-2495, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1133911, 2016. |
| 10. | Refsgaard, J. C., T. O. Sonnenborg, M. B. Butts, J. H. Christensen, S. Christensen, M. Drews, K. H. Jensen, F. Jørgensen, L. F. Jørgensen, M. A. D. Larsen, S. H. Rasmussen, L. P. Seaby, D. Seifert, and T. N. Vilhelmsen, Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(13), 2312-2324, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1131899, 2016. |
| 11. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. F. Hattermann, S. Huang, P. C. D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P. P. J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, and H.-J. Schellnhuber, Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(1), 1-14, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1241398, 2017. |
| 12. | Connolly, R., M. Connolly, W. Soon, D. R. Legates, R. G. Cionco, and V. M. Velasco Herrera, Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967–2018): A comparison between climate models and observations, Geosciences, 9(3), 135, doi:10.3390/geosciences9030135, 2019. |
| 13. | Kron, W., J. Eichner, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Reduction of flood risk in Europe – Reflections from a reinsurance perspective, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.050, 2019. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Scale of water resources development and sustainability: Small is beautiful, large is great, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (4), 553–575, doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.579076, 2011.
Several aspects of water resources and their links with food and energy supply, as well as with natural hazards, have been obscured due to political aims and ideological influences. At the same time, the involvement of politics and ideology testifies the high importance of water related issues internationally, and reflects the intensifying unresolved problems related to water, food and energy adequacy, and protection from floods and droughts. In an attempt to separate as much as possible the essence of problems from the political and ideological influences, several facts and fallacies about water and interrelated issues are discussed, based on data (numbers) rather than on dominant ideological views. The domain of the discussion is generally the entire globe, but, as a particular case, Greece, whose water resources are only partly developed, is discussed in more detail. From a pragmatic point of view, the water infrastructure in developed countries appears to be irreplaceable, although its management is adaptable toward more environmentally friendly operation. For developing countries, no alternative to large-scale water resources development by engineering means appears plausible. The recent pursuit of renewable energy makes imperative the utilization of the existing, and, where possible, the building of new, large hydropower plants, as only these can provide efficient energy storage, which is necessary for the renewable energy provided by nature in highly varying patterns.
Remarks:
Two typing errors in reference to Fig. 12 have been noted and corrected in the file provided here. In addition to people acknowledged in the paper, thanks (and apology) are due to Aris Tegos has also provided useful comments.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1108/2/documents/2011HSJ_LargeIsGreat.pdf (3787 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.579076
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 4. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., I. Pińskwar and G. R. Brakenridge, Large floods in Europe, 1985–2009, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1-7, 2013. |
| 5. | Sivakumar, B., V. P. Singh, R. Berndtsson and S. K. Khan, Catchment classification framework in hydrology: challenges and directions, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering , 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000837, 2013. |
| 6. | #Petrov, G., and R. Berberova, Software tools for georadar data processing and visualization, Computer Science Education and Computer Science - 9th Annual International Conference, 2013. |
| 7. | Berhane, G., and K. Walraevens, Geological challenges in constructing the proposed Geba dam site, northern Ethiopia, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 10.1007/s10064-013-0480-9, 2013. |
| 8. | #Gupta, J., Global water governance, The Handbook of Global Climate and Environment Policy (ed. by R. Falkner), 19-36, Wiley, West Sussex, UK, 2013. |
| 9. | Paschalis, A., P. Molnar, S. Fatichi and P. Burlando, A stochastic model for high resolution space‐time precipitation simulation, Water Resources Research, 49 (12), 8400-8417, 2013. |
| 10. | Liu H.-J., and N.-S. Hsu, Novel information for source identification of local pumping and recharging in a groundwater system, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.898847, 2014. |
| 11. | Graf, R., Reference statistics for the structure of measurement series of groundwater levels (Wielkopolska Lowland - western Poland), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.905689, 2014. |
| 12. | Bakken, T. H., A. G. Aase, D. Hagen, H. Sundt, D. N. Barton and P. Lujala, Demonstrating a new framework for the comparison of environmental impacts from small- and large-scale hydropower and wind power projects, Journal of Environmental Management, 140, 93-101, 2014. |
| 13. | Rodríguez–Estrella, T., The problems of overexploitation of aquifers in semi-arid areas: characteristics and proposals for mitigation, Boletín Geológico y Minero, 125 (1), 91-109, 2014. |
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| 15. | Ambalam, K., Reallocation of water resources in the Arab region: an emerging challenge in water governance, European Journal of Sustainable Development, 3 (3), 283-298, 10.14207/ejsd.2014.v3n3p283, 2014. |
| 16. | Jager, H.I., R.A. Efroymson, J.J. Opperman and M.R. Kelly, Spatial design principles for sustainable hydropower development in river basins, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 45, 808-816, 2015. |
| 17. | McMillan, H., A. Montanari, C. Cudennec, H. Savenjie, H. Kreibich, T. Krüger, J. Liu, A. Meija, A. van Loon, H. Aksoy, G. Di Baldassarre, Y. Huang, D. Mazvimavi, M. Rogger, S. Bellie, T. Bibikova, A. Castellarin, Y. Chen, D. Finger, A. Gelfan, D. Hannah, A. Hoekstra, H. Li, S. Maskey, T. Mathevet, A. Mijic, A. Pedrozo Acuña, M. J. Polo, V. Rosales, P. Smith, A. Viglione, V. Srinivasan, E. Toth, R. van Nooyen, and J. Xia, Panta Rhei 2013-2015: Global perspectives on hydrology, society and change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308, 2016. |
| 18. | Ding, L., Q. Li, J. Tang, J. Wang, and X. Chen, Linking land use metrics measured in aquatic-terrestrial interfaces to water quality of reservoir-based water sources in Eastern China, Sustainability, 11(18), 4860, doi:10.3390/su11184860, 2019. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics as a result of extremal entropy production, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 390 (8), 1424–1432, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.12.035, 2011.
It is demonstrated that extremization of entropy production of stochastic representations of natural systems, performed at asymptotic times (zero or infinity) results in constant derivative of entropy in logarithmic time and, in turn, in Hurst-Kolmogorov processes. The constraints used include preservation of the mean, variance and lag-1 autocovariance at the observation time step, and an inequality relationship between conditional and unconditional entropy production, which is necessary to enable physical consistency. An example with real world data illustrates the plausibility of the findings.
Remarks:
Erratum: In the Conclusions section the text "(zero of infinity)" should read "(zero or infinity)".
Blog posts and discussions: Bishop Hill blog - Koutsoyiannis 2011, Society for Interdisciplinary Studies.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2010.12.035
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Resta, M., Hurst exponent and its applications in time-series analysis, Recent Patents on Computer Science, 5 (3), 211-219, 2012. |
| 2. | Serinaldi, F., L. Zunino and O. Rosso, Complexity–entropy analysis of daily stream flow time series in the continental United States, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28 (7), 1685-1708, 2014. |
| 3. | Fan, L., H. Wang, W. Lai and C. Wang, Administration of water resources in Beijing: Problems and countermeasures, Water Policy, 17 (4), 563-580, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Paschalis, and N. Theodoratos, Two-dimensional Hurst-Kolmogorov process and its application to rainfall fields, Journal of Hydrology, 398 (1-2), 91–100, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.012, 2011.
The Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics has been well established in stochastic representations of the temporal evolution of natural processes, yet many regard it as a puzzle or a paradoxical behaviour. As our senses are more familiar with spatial objects rather than time series, understanding the HK behaviour becomes more direct and natural when the domain of our study is no longer the time but the two-dimensional space. Therefore, here we detect the presence of HK behaviour in spatial hydrological and generally geophysical fields including Earth topography, and precipitation and temperature fields. We extend the one-dimensional HK process into two dimensions and we provide exact relationships of its basic statistical properties and closed approximations thereof. We discuss the parameter estimation problem, with emphasis on the associated uncertainties and biases. Finally, we propose a two-dimensional stochastic generation scheme, which can reproduce the HK behaviour and we apply this scheme to generate rainfall fields, consistent with the observed ones.
Additional material:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Montanari, A., Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3739-3747, doi:10.5194/hess-16-3739-2012, 2012. |
| 2. | Resta, M., Hurst exponent and its applications in time-series analysis, Recent Patents on Computer Science, 5 (3), 211-219, 2012. |
| 3. | De Michele, C., and M. Ignaccolo, New perspectives on rainfall from a discrete view, Hydrological Processes, 10.1002/hyp.9782, 2013. |
| 4. | Paschalis, A., P. Molnar, S. Fatichi and P. Burlando, A stochastic model for high resolution space‐time precipitation simulation, Water Resources Research, 49 (12), 8400-8417, 2013. |
| 5. | van den Berg, M. J., L. Delobbe and N. E. C. Verhoest, Imperfect scaling in distributions of radar-derived rainfall fields, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 18 (12), 5331-5344, 2014. |
| 6. | Paschalis, A., P. Molnar, S. Fatichi and P. Burlando, On temporal stochastic modeling of precipitation, nesting models across scales, Advances in Water Resources, 63, 152-166, 2014. |
I. Nalbantis, A. Efstratiadis, E. Rozos, M. Kopsiafti, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Holistic versus monomeric strategies for hydrological modelling of human-modified hydrosystems, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 743–758, doi:10.5194/hess-15-743-2011, 2011.
The modelling of human-modified basins that are inadequately measured constitutes a challenge for hydrological science. Often, models for such systems are detailed and hydraulics-based for only one part of the system while for other parts oversimplified models or rough assumptions are used. This is typically a bottom-up approach, which seeks to exploit knowledge of hydrological processes at the micro-scale at some components of the system. Also, it is a monomeric approach in two ways: first, essential interactions among system components may be poorly represented or even omitted; second, differences in the level of detail of process representation can lead to uncontrolled errors. Additionally, the calibration procedure merely accounts for the reproduction of the observed responses using typical fitting criteria. The paper aims to raise some critical issues, regarding the entire modelling approach for such hydrosystems. For this, two alternative modelling strategies are examined that reflect two modelling approaches or philosophies: a dominant bottom-up approach, which is also monomeric and, very often, based on output information, and a top-down and holistic approach based on generalized information. Critical options are examined, which codify the differences between the two strategies: the representation of surface, groundwater and water management processes, the schematization and parameterization concepts and the parameter estimation methodology. The first strategy is based on stand-alone models for surface and groundwater processes and for water management, which are employed sequentially. For each model, a different (detailed or coarse) parameterization is used, which is dictated by the hydrosystem schematization. The second strategy involves model integration for all processes, parsimonious parameterization and hybrid manual-automatic parameter optimization based on multiple objectives. A test case is examined in a hydrosystem in Greece with high complexities, such as extended surface-groundwater interactions, ill-defined boundaries, sinks to the sea and anthropogenic intervention with unmeasured abstractions both from surface water and aquifers. Criteria for comparison are the physical consistency of parameters, the reproduction of runoff hydrographs at multiple sites within the studied basin, the likelihood of uncontrolled model outputs, the required amount of computational effort and the performance within a stochastic simulation setting. Our work allows for investigating the deterioration of model performance in cases where no balanced attention is paid to all components of human-modified hydrosystems and the related information. Also, sources of errors are identified and their combined effect are evaluated.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1055/11/documents/hess-15-743-2011.pdf (1733 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-743-2011
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
The non-static, ever changing hydroclimatic processes are often described as nonstationary. However, revisiting the notions of stationarity and nonstationarity, defined within stochastics, suggests that claims of nonstationarity cannot stand unless the evolution in time of the statistical characteristics of the process is known in deterministic terms, particularly for the future. In reality, long-term deterministic predictions are difficult or impossible. Thus, change is not synonymous with nonstationarity, and even prominent change at a multitude of time scales, small and large, can be described satisfactorily by a stochastic approach admitting stationarity. This “novel” description does not depart from the 60- to 70-year old pioneering works of Hurst on natural processes and of Kolmogorov on turbulence. Contrasting stationary with nonstationary has important implications in engineering and management. The stationary description with Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics demonstrates that nonstationary and classical stationary descriptions underestimate the uncertainty. This is illustrated using examples of hydrometeorological time series, which show the consistency of the HK approach with reality. One example demonstrates the implementation of this framework in the planning and management of the water supply system of Athens, Greece, also in comparison with alternative nonstationary approaches, including a trend-based and a climate-model-based approach.
Remarks:
Blog posts and discussions: The Blackboard.
Related works:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simultaneous estimation of the parameters of the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 25 (1), 21–33, 2011.
Various methods for estimating the self-similarity parameter (Hurst parameter, H) of a Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process (HKp) from a time series are available. Most of them rely on some asymptotic properties of processes with Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour and only estimate the self-similarity parameter. Here we show that the estimation of the Hurst parameter affects the estimation of the standard deviation, a fact that was not given appropriate attention in the literature. We propose the Least Squares based on Variance estimator, and we investigate numerically its performance, which we compare to the Least Squares based on Standard Deviation estimator, as well as the maximum likelihood estimator after appropriate streamlining of the latter. These three estimators rely on the structure of the HKp and estimate simultaneously its Hurst parameter and standard deviation. In addition, we test the performance of the three methods for a range of sample sizes and H values, through a simulation study and we compare it with other estimators of the literature.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0408-x
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Bakker, A. M. R., and B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, Estimation of persistence and trends in geostrophic wind speed for the assessment of wind energy yields in Northwest Europe, Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4), 767-782, 2012. |
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| 3. | Bakker, A., J. Coelingh and B. van den Hurk, Long-term trends in the wind supply in the Netherlands, Proceedings EWEA 2012 Annual Event, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2012. |
| 4. | Navarro, X., F. Porée, A. Beuchée and G. Carrault, Performance analysis of Hurst exponent estimators using surrogate-data and fractional lognormal noise models: Application to breathing signals from preterm infants, Digital Signal Processing, 10.1016/j.dsp.2013.04.007, 2013. |
| 5. | Serinaldi, F., L. Zunino and O. Rosso, Complexity–entropy analysis of daily stream flow time series in the continental United States, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28 (7), 1685-1708, 2014. |
| 6. | Szolgayova, E., G. Laaha, G. Blöschl and C. Bucher, Factors influencing long range dependence in streamflow of European rivers, Hydrological Processes, 28 (4), 1573-1586, 2014. |
| 7. | Serinaldi, F., and C.G. Kilsby, The importance of prewhitening in change point analysis under persistence, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-015-1041-5, 2015. |
G. Di Baldassarre, A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, D. Koutsoyiannis, L. Brandimarte, and G. Blöschl, Flood fatalities in Africa: from diagnosis to mitigation, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22402, doi:10.1029/2010GL045467, 2010.
Flood-related fatalities in Africa, as well as associated economic losses, have increased dramatically over the past half-century. There is a growing global concern about the need to identify the causes for such increased flood damages. To this end, we analyze a large, consistent and reliable dataset of floods in Africa. Identification of causes is not easy given the diverse economic settings, demographic distribution and hydro-climatic conditions of the African continent. On the other hand, many African river basins have a relatively low level of human disturbance and, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to analyze climatic effects on floods. We find that intensive and unplanned human settlements in flood-prone areas appears to be playing a major role in increasing flood risk. Timely and economically sustainable actions, such as the discouragement of human settlements in flood-prone areas and the introduction of early warning systems are, therefore, urgently needed.
Remarks:
The paper has been cited as Editor's Highlight. It has also been discussed in the following weblogs and forums:
- Population trends, not climate, causing increased flood fatalities in Africa (AGU Blogosphere)
- Flood Losses in Africa (Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog)
- Flood Losses In Africa (repost) (The Global Warming Policy Foundation)
- Missing News: Flood damage muted (ABC News Watch)
- African Floods Are Not Being Caused By Human CO2 Emissions, Latest Peer-Reviewed Study Reports (C3)
- Fatal Floods In Africa (Inside Science)
- Fatal floods in Africa (repost) (Carbon-Based)
- Carbon-Based: Fatal floods in Africa (repost) (GCC News Brief)
- Meer doden door overstromingen: schuld van het klimaat? (Kennislink)
- Wetenschappers tegen kolencentrales gebruiken drogreden (Climategate.nl)
Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2010 can be seen in:
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Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045467
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Di Baldassarre, G., G. Schumann, L. Brandimarte and P. Bates, Timely low resolution SAR imagery to support floodplain modelling: a case study review, Surveys in Geophysics, 32 (3), 255-269, 2011. |
| 2. | Padi, P.T., G. Di Baldassarre and A. Castellarin, Floodplain management in Africa: Large scale analysis of flood data, J. Phys. Chem. Earth, 36 (7-8), 292-298, 2011. |
| 3. | Blöschl, G., A. Viglione, R. Merz, J. Parajka, J. L. Salinas, and W. Schöner, Climate impacts on floods and low flows, Osterreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft, 63 (1), 21-30, 2011. |
| 4. | Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, J.-Q. Xuan, D. Solomatine and S. Uhlenbrook, Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56(2), 199-211, 2011. |
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| 17. | Cuya, D. G. P., L. Brandimarte, I. Popescu, J. Alterach and M. Peviani, A GIS-based assessment of maximum potential hydropower production in La Plata basin under global changes, Renewable Energy, 50, 103-114, 2013. |
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| 29. | Roche, K. M., K. J. McAneney, K. Chen, and R. P. Crompton, The Australian great flood of 1954: Estimating the cost of a similar event in 2011, Weather, Climate, and Society, 5 (3), 199-209, 2013. |
| 30. | #Zwiers, F. W., L. V. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. Naveau, N. Nicholls, C. Schar, S. I. Seneviratne and X. Zhang, Challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events, In Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities, ed. by G. R. Asrar and J. W. Hurrell, Springer, 2013. |
| 31. | Lüning, H. S., Studies of the past as the key to the future? Geological and historical reconstructions provide valuable support for future trend prediction of natural disasters, Disaster Advances, 6 (10), 1-3, 2013. |
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| 33. | Buchecker, M., G. Salvini, G. Di Baldassarre, E. Semenzin, E. Maidl and A. Marcomini, The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3013-3030, 10.5194/nhess-13-3013-2013, 2013. |
| 34. | Ridolfi, E., V. Montesarchio, M.Rianna, S. Sebastianelli, F. Russo and F. Napolitano, Evaluation of rainfall thresholds through entropy: influence of bivariate distribution selection, Irrigation and Drainage, 62 (Suppl. 2), 50–60, 2013. |
| 35. | Overeem, A., H. Leijnse and R. Uijlenhoet, Landsdekkende regenkaarten uit het mobiele telefonienetwerk, WT-Afvalwater, 13 (4), 194-203, 2013. |
| 36. | Amoussou, E., Y. Tramblay, H. S. V. Totin, G. Mahé and P. Camberlin, Dynamique et modélisation des crues dans le bassin du Mono à Nangbéto (Togo/Bénin), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2013.871015, 2013. |
| 37. | Domeneghetti, Α., S. Gandolfi, A. Castellarin, L. Brandimarte, G. Di Baldassarre, M. Barbarella and A. Brath, Flood risk mitigation in developing countries: deriving accurate topographic data for remote areas under severe time and economic constraints, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10.1111/jfr3.12095, 2013. |
| 38. | McAneney, J., and R. Crompton, What is driving the rising cost of natural disasters?, Trébol, 67, 4-17, 2013. |
| 39. | Sighomnou, D., L. Descroix, P. Genthon, G. Mahé, I. B. Moussa, E. Gautier, I. Mamadou, J.-P. Vandervaere, T. Bachir, B. Coulibaly, J.-L. Rajot, O. M., Issa, M. M. Abdou, N. Dessay, E. Delaitre, O. F. Maiga, A. Diedhiou, G. Panthou, T. Vischel, H. Yacouba, H. Karambiri, J.-E. Paturel, P. Diello, E. Mougin, L. Kergoat and P. Hiernaux, The Niger River Niamey flood of 2012: The paroxysm of the Sahelian paradox? [La crue de 2012 à Niamey: Un paroxysme du paradoxe du Sahel?], Science et Changements Planetaires – Secheresse, 24 (1), 3-13, 2013. |
| 40. | Hall, J., B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z.W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione and G. Blöschl, Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735-2772, 10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014. |
| 41. | Aich, V., S. Liersch, T. Vetter, S. Huang, J. Tecklenburg, P. Hoffmann, H. Koch, S. Fournet, V. Krysanova, E. N. Müller and F. F. Hattermann, Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 18, 1305-1321, 2014. |
| 42. | Ward, P. J., S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger and M. Kummu, Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the global scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47-66, 2014. |
| 43. | Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Kanae, S. I. Seneviratne, J. Handmer, N. Nicholls, P. Peduzzi, R. Mechler, L. M. Bouweri, N. Arnell, K. Mach, R. Muir-Wood, G. R. Brakenridge, W. Kron, G. Benito, Y. Honda, K. Takahashi, and B. Sherstyukov, Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2013.857411, 2014. |
| 44. | Hailemariam, F. M., L. Brandimarte and F. Dottori, Investigating the influence of minor hydraulic structures on modeling flood events in low land areas, Hydrological Processes, 28 (4), 1742-1755, 2014. |
| 45. | Harman, C., and P. A. Troch, What makes Darwinian hydrology "Darwinian"? Asking a different kind of question about landscapes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 18, 417-433, doi: 10.5194/hess-18-417-2014, 2014. |
| 46. | Sivapalan, M., M. Konar, V. Srinivasan, A. Chhatre, A. Wutich, C. A. Scott, J. L. Wescoat, I. Rodríguez-Iturbe, Socio-hydrology: use-inspired water sustainability science for the anthropocene, Earth's Future, 10.1002/2013EF000164, 2014. |
| 47. | Md Ali, A., G. Di Baldassarre and D. P. Solomatine, Testing different cross-section spacing in 1D hydraulic modelling: A case study on Johor River, Malaysia, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.889297, 2014. |
| 48. | Panthou, G., T. Vischel and T. Lebel, Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.3984, 2014. |
| 49. | #Kiem, A. S., Climate variability and change, ch. 2 in Climate Change and Water Resources, 31-67, 2014. |
| 50. | Beven, K., R. Lamb, D. Leedal and N. Hunter, Communicating uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: a case study, International Journal of River Basin Management, 10.1080/15715124.2014.917318, 2014. |
| 51. | Panthou, G., T. Vischel, T. Lebel, G.Quantin and G. Molinié, Characterizing the space–time structure of rainfall in the Sahel with a view to estimating IDAF curves, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. ,18 (12) 5093-5107, DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, 2014. |
| 52. | Tramblay, Y., E. Amoussou, W. Dorigo and G. Mahé, Flood risk under future climate in data sparse regions: Linking extreme value models and flood generating processes, Journal of Hydrology, 519A, 549-558, 2014. |
| 53. | Mazzoleni, M., S. Barontini, R. Ranzi and L. Brandimarte, Innovative probabilistic methodology for evaluating the reliability of discrete levee reaches owing to piping, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001055, 2014. |
| 54. | Aich, V., B. Koné, F. F. Hattermann and E. N. Müller, Floods in the Niger basin – analysis and attribution, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 5171-5212, 10.5194/nhessd-2-5171-2014, 2014. |
| 55. | Ceola, S., F. Laio and A. Montanari, Satellite night‐time lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2014GL061859, 2014. |
| 56. | Amoussou, E., Y. Tramblay, H. S. V. Totin, G. Mahé and P. Camberlin, Dynamics and modelling of floods in the river basin of Mono in Nangbeto, Togo/Benin, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (11), 2060-2071, 2014. |
| 57. | #van der Geest, K., and K. Warner, Loss and damage from droughts and floods in rural Africa, in Digging Deeper: Inside Africa’s Agricultural, Food and Nutrition Dynamics (ed. by A.Akinyoade, W. Klaver and S. Soeters, Brill, Leiden, The Netherlands, 2014. |
| 58. | Collenteur, R. A., H. de Moel, B. Jongman, and G.Di Baldassarre, The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?, Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-014-1496-6, 2014. |
| 59. | Ceola, S., F. Laio and A. Montanari, Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide, Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (20), 7184-7190, 2014. |
| 60. | Mateo, C. M., N. Hanasaki, D. Komori, K. Tanaka, M. Kiguchi, A. Champathong, D. Yamazaki and T. Oki, Assessing the impacts of reservoir operation to floodplain inundation by combining hydrological, reservoir management, and hydrodynamic models, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/2013WR014845, 2014. |
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| 63. | Horváth, Z., J. Waser, R.A.P. Perdigão, A. Konev and G. Blöschl, A two-dimensional numerical scheme of dry/wet fronts for the Saint-Venant system of shallow water equations, International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 77 (3), 159-182, 2015. |
| 64. | Andrés-Doménech, I., R. García-Bartual, A. Montanari and J. B. Marco, Climate and hydrological variability: the catchment filtering role, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19 (1), 379-387, 2015. |
| 65. | Billi, P., Y.T. Alemu and R. Ciampalini, Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?, Natural Hazards, 76 (2), 1373-1394, 2015. |
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Error analysis of a multi-cell groundwater model, Journal of Hydrology, 392 (1-2), 22–30, 2010.
The basic advantages of the multi-cell groundwater models are the parsimony, speed, and simplicity that make them ideal for hydrological applications, particularly when data are insufficient and/or repeated simulations are needed. However, the multi-cell models, in their basic version, are conceptual models and their parameters do not have physical meaning. This disadvantage may be overcome by the Narasimhan and Witherspoon’s integrated finite difference method, which, however, demands that the cells’ geometry conforms to the equipotential and no-flow lines. This restriction cannot be strictly satisfied in every application. Particularly in transient conditions, a mesh with static geometry cannot conform constantly to the varying flow kinematics. In this study, we analyse the error when this restriction is not strictly satisfied and we identify the contribution of this error to the overall error of a multi-cell model. The study is experimental based on a synthetic aquifer with characteristics carefully selected so as to be representative of real-world situations, but obviously the results of these investigations cannot be generalized to every type of aquifer. Nonetheless these results indicate that the error due to non-conformity to the aforementioned restriction plays a minor role in the overall model error and that the overall error of the multi-cell models with conditionally designed cells is comparable to the error of finite difference models with much denser discretization. Therefore the multi-cell models should be considered as an alternative option, especially in the cases where a discretization with a flexible mesh is indicated or in the cases where repeated model runs are required.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.036
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #SIRRIMED (Sustainable use of irrigation water in the Mediterranean Region), D4.2 and D5.2 Report on Models to be Implemented in the District Information Systems (DIS) and Watershed Information Systems (WIS), 95 pp., Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 2011. |
| 2. | Muhammed Ernur AKINER, (2014) Developing a Groundwater Model for the Town of Amherst, OURNAL OF ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, Vol 2, No 4. |
| 3. | Doddema, L., The influence of reservoir heterogeneities on geothermal doublet performance, 2012 |
| 4. | Nguyen, V. T., and J. Dietrich, Modification of the SWAT model to simulate regional groundwater flow using a multi-cell aquifer, Hydrological Processes, doi:10.1002/hyp.11466, 2018. |
G. G. Anagnostopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.513518, 2010.
We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections do not correspond to reality any better.
Remarks:
The paper has been discussed in weblogs and forums.
Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2010:
- Very Important New Paper “A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data” By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (Watts Up With That?)
- Missing News: No skill in climate modelling (ABC News Watch)
- Missing News: Climate models disputed (ABC News Watch)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost 1) (Countdown to critical mass)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost2 ) (Climate Observer)
- New Major Peer-Reviewed Study: Climate Models' Predictions Found To Be Shitty (C3)
- New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are - A response to the Climate Change Misinformation at wattsupwiththat.com (Wott's Up With That?)
- Climate model abuse (Niche Modeling)
- Very Important New Paper on models versus reality (Greenie Watch)
- New paper shows that there is no means of reliably predicting climate variables (Greenie Watch 2)
- A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data (Fire And Ice)
- Peer Reviewed Study States The Obvious (US Message Board)
- Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog)
- Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (repost) (The Daily Telegraph)
- No abuse hides the fact: warmist models cannot even predict our past (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
- No abuse hides the fact: the warmist models cannot even predict our past (PA Pundits – International)
- Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (clothcap)
- Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (repost) (My Telegraph)
- Science not politics (ecomyths)
- More evidence that Global Climate computer models are worthless (Tucano's Perch)
- Model skill? (Retread Resources Blog)
- Estudo sobre modelos climáticos (MeteoPT.com - Fórum de Meteorologia)
- Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (Climate Monitor)
- Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (repost) (Blog All Over The World)
- Klima - spådommer og målinger (ABC News)
- "Scam for the Ages" Makes Madoff Look Like Small Change (Al Fin)
- Teoria do AGA: um passado duvidoso, um presente mal contado e um futuro pior ainda. (Sou Engenheiro)
Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2010:
Climate Etc. * Climate Etc. (2) * Climate Etc. (3) * YouTube * Science Forum * Google Groups * Google Groups 2 * Errors in IPCC climate science * Errors in IPCC climate science (2) * Just Grounds Community * A Few Things Ill Considered * Popular Technology.net * The Climate Scam * JunkScience * The Chronicle of Higher Education * The Little Skeptic * Jennifer Marohasy * Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com * ICECAP * Watching the Deniers * DVD Talk * Pure Poison * Peak Oil News and Message Boards * Bishop Hill * San Diego News * Sheffield Forum * Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 3 * BBC - Richard Black's Earth Watch * Liberation * Pistonheads * ABC.net.au * Climate Conversation Group * Sydsvenskan - Nyheter dygnet runt * Telepolis * Keskisuomalainen * Keskisuomalainen 2
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/978/1/documents/928051726__.pdf (1309 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513518
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., and E. Z. Stakhiv, Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(7), 1085–1089, 2010. |
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| 3. | Stockwell, D. R. B., Critique of drought models in the Australian Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), Energy and Environment, 21(5), 425-436, 2010. |
| 4. | Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, J.-Q. Xuan, D. Solomatine, and S. Uhlenbrook, Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(2), 199-211, 2011. |
| 5. | Carlin, A., A multidisciplinary, science-based approach to the economics of climate change, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 8(4), 985-1031, 2011. |
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| 7. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Nonstationarity in water resources – Central European perspective, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(3), 550-562, 2011. |
| 8. | Sivakumar, B., Water crisis: From conflict to cooperation – an overview, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 531-552, 2011. |
| 9. | Loehle, C., Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems, Ecology and Evolution, 1 (1), 63–72, 2011. |
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| 16. | #Kundzewicz, Z. W., Comparative assessment: fact or fiction? Paper presented at the Workshop Including long-term climate change in hydrologic design, World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA, November 21, 2011. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Z. W. Kundzewicz, F. Watkins, and C. Gardner, Something old, something new, something red, something blue, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (1), 1–3, 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/959/1/documents/2010HSJ_Editorial.pdf (340 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626660903525294
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, J.-Q. Xuan, D. Solomatine and S. Uhlenbrook, Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56(2), 199-211, 2011. |
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A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, One decade of multiobjective calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (1), 58–78, doi:10.1080/02626660903526292, 2010.
One decade after the first publications on multiobjective hydrological calibration, we summarize the experience gained so far, by underlining the key perspectives offered by such approaches to improve parameter identifiability. After reviewing the fundamentals of vector optimization theory and the algorithmic issues, we link the multicriteria calibration approach with the concepts of uncertainty and equifinality. Specifically, the multicriteria framework enables recognizing and handling errors and uncertainties, and detecting prominent behavioural solutions with acceptable trade-offs. Particularly in models of complex parameterization, a multiobjective approach becomes essential for improving the identifiability of parameters and augmenting the information contained in calibration, by means of both multiresponse measurements and empirical metrics (“soft” data), which account for the hydrological expertise. Based on the literature review, we also provide alternative techniques to treat with conflicting and non-commeasurable criteria, and hybrid strategies to utilize the information gained towards identifying promising compromise solutions that ensure consistent and reliable calibrations.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/924/2/documents/919806565_.pdf (290 KB)
Additional material:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Booij, M. J., and M. S. Krol, Balance between calibration objectives in a conceptual hydrological model, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(6), 1017-1032, 2010. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, doi:10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010.
According to the traditional notion of randomness and uncertainty, natural phenomena are separated into two mutually exclusive components, random (or stochastic) and deterministic. Within this dichotomous logic, the deterministic part supposedly represents cause-effect relationships and, thus, is physics and science (the “good”), whereas randomness has little relationship with science and no relationship with understanding (the “evil”). Here I argue that such views should be reconsidered by admitting that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature, that causality implies dependence of natural processes in time, thus suggesting predictability, but even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g., in initial conditions) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon. On these premises it is possible to shape a consistent stochastic representation of natural processes, in which predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist and are not separable or additive components. Deciding which of the two dominates is simply a matter of specifying the time horizon and scale of the prediction. Long horizons of prediction are inevitably associated with high uncertainty, whose quantification relies on the long-term stochastic properties of the processes.
Remarks:
Blog posts and discussions can be seen in Outside the Cube, Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr., Retread Resources Blog, William M. Briggs, Niche Modeling 1, Niche Modeling 2, The Blackboard 1, The Blackboard 2, The Blackboard 3, Climate Audit, Bart Verheggen's weblog.
Erratum in p. 589, left column, around the middle: the line "Eq. (1) (but not in Eq. (1), which represents..." should read "Eq. (2) (but not in Eq. (1), which represents...".
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/923/1/documents/hess-14-585-2010.pdf (4499 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar, ResearchGate or ResearchGate (additional)
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/922/1/documents/2009PCE_SpecialIssue_GuestEditorial_.pdf (92 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2009.06.005
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Remarks:
A weblog discussion can be seen in Climate Science.
The original article discussed in this paper can be found in Hydrological Sciences Journal 53 (1).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/907/1/documents/hysj_54_2_394.pdf (643 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.2.394
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Editorial—Recycling paper vs recycling papers, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (1), 3–4, 2009.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/891/1/documents/hysj_54_1_3.pdf (420 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.1.3
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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| 1. | Hughes, D. A., K. V. Heal and C. Leduc, Improving the visibility of hydrological sciences from developing countries, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.938653, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, doi:10.5194/hess-13-247-2009, 2009.
Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as “tools” subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the “symptom”, i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the “illness”, i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. Unless energy saving and use of renewable resources become the norm, there is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future. A framework for drastic paradigm change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro and wave power) to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources), to biofuel production (irrigation). The extended role of water should be considered in parallel to its other uses, domestic, agricultural and industrial. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must move towards this new paradigm by radically rethinking its fundamentals, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, which reveal the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is central to the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.
Remarks:
Blogs and forums that have discussed this article: Climate science; Vertical news; Outside the cube.
Update 2011-09-26: The removed video of the panel discussion of Nobelists entitled “Climate Changes and Energy Challenges” (held in the framework of the 2008 Meeting of Nobel Laureates at Lindau on Physics) which is referenced in footnote 1 of the paper, still cannot be located online. However, Larry Gould has an audio file of the discussion here.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/878/17/documents/hess-13-247-2009.pdf (1476 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-247-2009
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 12. | #Skaggs, R., K. A. Hibbard, T. C. Janetos, and J. S. Rice, Climate and energy-water-land system interactions, Technical report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment, Report No. PNNL-21185, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 152 pp., 2012. |
| 13. | Gunasekara, N. K., S. Kazama, D. Yamazaki and T. Oki, The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4429-4440, 2013. |
| 14. | Nastos, P. T., N. Politi, and J. Kapsomenakis, Spatial and temporal variability of the aridity index in Greece, Atmospheric Research, 19, 140-152, 2013. |
| 15. | Hrachowitz, M., H.H.G. Savenije, G. Blöschl, J.J. McDonnell, M. Sivapalan, J.W. Pomeroy, B. Arheimer, T. Blume, M.P. Clark, U. Ehret, F. Fenicia, J.E. Freer, A. Gelfan, H.V. Gupta, D.A. Hughes, R.W. Hut, A. Montanari, S. Pande, D. Tetzlaff, P.A. Troch, S. Uhlenbrook, T. Wagener, H.C. Winsemius, R.A. Woods, E. Zehe, and C. Cudennec, A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) — a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198-1255, 2013. |
| 16. | Thompson, S. E., M. Sivapalan, C. J. Harman, V. Srinivasan, M. R. Hipsey, P. Reed, A. Montanari and G. and Blöschl, Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 5013-5039, 2013. |
| 17. | #Voulvoulis, N., The potential of water reuse as a management option for water security under the ecosystem services approach, Win4Life Conference, Tinos Island, Greece, 2013. |
| 18. | Dette, H., and K. Sen, Goodness-of-fit tests in long-range dependent processes under fixed alternatives, ESAIM: Probability and Statistics, 17, 432-443, 2013. |
| 19. | Ilich, N., An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85-98, 2014. |
| 20. | Jain, S., Reference climate and water data networks for India, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20(4), 02515001, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001170, 2015. |
| 21. | Voulvoulis, N., The potential of water reuse as a management option for water security under the ecosystem services approach, Desalination and Water Treatment, 53 (12), 3263-3271, doi:10.1080/19443994.2014.934106, 2015. |
| 22. | #Rohli, R. V., Overview of applied climatology and water/energy resources, Selected Readings in Applied Climatology, R. V. Rohli and T. A. Joyner (editors), 144-155, Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2015. |
| 23. | #Kim, S.S.H., J.D. Hughes, D. Dutta, and J. Vaze, Why do sub-period consistency calibrations outperform traditional optimisations in streamflow prediction? Proceedings of 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, 2061-2067, Gold Coast, Australia, 2015. |
| 24. | Kim, S. S. H., J. D. Hughes, J. Chen, D. Dutta, and J. Vaze, Determining probability distributions of parameter performances for time-series model calibration: A river system trial, Journal of Hydrology, 530, 361–371, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.073, 2015. |
| 25. | Clark, C., Two rural temperature records in Somerset, UK, Weather, 70(10), 280-284, doi:10.1002/wea.2512, 2015. |
| 26. | Tsonis, A. A., Randomness: a property of the mathematical and physical systems, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(9), 1591-1610, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.992434, 2016. |
| 27. | Di Baldassarre, G., L. Brandimarte, and K. Beven, The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions, unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human-water systems, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(9), 1748-1758, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1091460, 2016. |
| 28. | Chrs, C. C., Models, the establishment, and the real world: Why do so many flood problems remain in the UK?, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 5, 44-59, doi:10.4236/gep.2017.52004, 2017. |
| 29. | Vogel, M., Stochastic watershed models for hydrologic risk management, Water Security, 1, 28-35, doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2017.06.001, 2017. |
| 30. | Madani, E. M., P. E. Jansson, and I. Babelon, Differences in water balance between grassland and forest watersheds using long-term data, derived using the CoupModel, Hydrology Research, 49(1), 72-89, doi:10.2166/nh.2017.154, 2018. |
| 31. | #Oliveira da Silva Araújo, R. C., L. Gomes Lourenço, O. Siena, and C. A. da Silva Müller, Inovação e sustentabilidade na produção e uso de energia: uma meta-análise, Sustentabilidade e Responsabilidade Social em Foco – Volume 4, Capítulo 3, Organização Editora Poisson, doi:10.5935/978-85-93729-64-5.2018B001, 2018. |
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| 33. | Dahlke, H. E., G. T. LaHue, M. R. L. Mautner, N. P. Murphy, N. K. Patterson, H. Waterhouse, F. Yang, and L. Foglia, Managed aquifer recharge as a tool to enhance sustainable groundwater management in California: Examples from field and modeling studies, Advances in Chemical Pollution, Environmental Management and Protection, 3, 215-275, doi:10.1016/bs.apmp.2018.07.003, 2018. |
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I. Zalachori, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Andreadakis, Infiltration and inflow in sewer systems: Identification and quantification in Greece, Technica Chronica, 28 (1), 43–51, 2008.
Infiltration and inflow (I/I) are known to be among the major problems in sewer systems. According to literature reviews, infiltration and inflow are often estimated as 100% of sewage flow, causing major malfunction both to the system and the wastewater treatment plan. In some countries proper regulation has been applied; however, in others research is still in progress. In this study, two pilot projects were conducted in Greece, in the cities of Ioannina and Karditsa. In the first phase of the project, infiltration and inflow conditions were identified for each city. A model was then developed for the quantification of I/I. Last, the reliability of the model was validated and the components of sewage were analyzed. The general conclusion is that the quantity of I/I is significant, exceeding the typical assumptions in the design studies of sewer networks in Greece.
Remarks:
Correction: At the bottom of Figure 7, the headings "Storm Water Inflows" and "Wastewater" should be swapped, so that the rates for the two categories be 40% and 33% respectively.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/881/1/documents/2008TechChron_InfilInfl__.pdf (1140 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://portal.tee.gr/portal/page/portal/PUBLICATIONS/SCIENTIFIC_PUBLICATIONS/SEIRA_I/ETOS_2008/Tab/
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Mavrommati, G., K. Bithas and P. Panayiotidis, A System dynamics bioeconomic model for ecologically sustainable economic development in coastal ecosystems, Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2012. |
| 2. | Mavrommati, G., K. Bithas and P. Panayiotidis, Operationalizing sustainability in urban coastal systems: a system dynamics analysis, Water Research, 10.1016/j.watres.2013.10.041, 2013. |
| 3. | Damvergis, C.N., Sewer systems: Failures and rehabilitation, Water Utility Journal, 8, 17-24, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.671, 2008.
Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
Remarks:
The paper has been widely discussed in weblogs and forums.
Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2008:
- Koutsoyiannis et al 2008: On the credibility of climate predictions (Climate Audit by Steve McIntyre) Reaction by first author * * * Additional reactions: 2 * 3 * 4 * 5 * 6 * more
- On the credibility of climate predictions by Koutsoyiannis et al. 2008 (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 1)
- Comments on a New Report on Climate Change in Colorado… (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 2)
- New Paper On Dynamic Downscaling Of Climate Models By Rockel Et. Al. Published (Climate Science by Roger Pielke Sr. 3)
- Hypothesis testing and long range memory (Real Climate by Gavin A. Schmidt) Reaction by 1st author; * * * Additional reaction
- Koutsoyiannis vs RealClimate.ORG (The Reference Frame by Luboš Motl) Reaction by 1rst author
- Modellen en vroegere werkelijkheid: een test (Klimaat by Marcel Severijnen 1)
- Nog eens: Modellen en vroegere werkelijkheid (Klimaat by Marcel Severijnen 2)
- Far from model predictions. As for the CSIRO’s… (Andrew Bolt Blog 1)
- Dud studies behind Rudd’s freakish claims (Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
- Rudd’s dud study (Andrew Bolt Blog 3)
- November snows all over the CSIRO (Andrew Bolt Blog 4)
- New paper demonstrates lack of credibility for climate model predictions (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 1)
- Ten of the Best Climate Research Papers (Nine Peer-Reviewed): A Note from Cohenite (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 2)
- Ten Worst Man-Made Disasters (Jennifer Marohasy Blog 3)
- Climate models struggling for credibility (Al Fin)
- Climate models fuzz (European Tribune)
- If it wasn't so serious then it'd be funny (Kerplunk - Common sense from Down Under)
- Laying the boot into climate models (The Tizona Group)
- More model mania (Planet Gore)
- New research on the credibility of climate predictions (SciForums)
- New paper demonstrates lack of credibility for climate model predictions 2 (Blogotariat)
- New study: climate models fail again (MSNBC Boards 1)
- Global Climate Models Fail (Again) (MSNBC Boards 2)
- On the credibility of climate predictions (Chronos)
- Sane skepticism, part 2 (Helicity)
- Science. On the credibility of climate predictions (Greenhouse Bullcrap)
- Testing global warming models (Assorted Meanderings)
- Climate cuttings 21 (Bishop Hill blog)
- Models, Climate Change and Credibility... (21st Century Schizoid Man)
- Two valuable perspectives on global warming (Fabius Maximus)
- Unreliability of climate models? (Climate Change)
- Crumbling Consensus: Global Climate Models Fail (Stubborn Facts)
- The Australian government's climate castle is built on sand (Greenie Watch)
- Koutsoyiannis et al 2008 (Detached Ideas)
- Credibility of Climate Predictions Paper (TWO community)
- "Climate consensus" continues to unravel (Solomonia)
- Climate models have no predictive value (Acadie 1755)
- Global Warming Summary series, Part 5: The Earth’s Greenhouse Gas – CO2 and IPCC Climate Modeling (Global Warming Science)
- Reducing Vulnerability to Climate-Sensitive Risks is the Best Insurance Policy (Cato Unbound)
- Global Warming News of the Week (No Oil for Pacifists)
- A few more cooling blasts at hot air balloons (Clothcap2 : My Telegraph)
- IPCC-Klimamodell unbrauchbar (jetzt Sueddeutsche)
- Uups II: IPCC-Klimamodelle fantasieren (Die Achse des Guten)
- Griechische Unsicherheiten (Climate Review)
- El fracaso de los modelos (Valdeperrillos)
- Klimamodeller er usikre (Debattcentralen - Aftenposten.no)
- Studie: Klimatmodellernas trovärdighet låg (Klimatsvammel)
- Credibilidad de las predicciones climáticas (FAEC Mitos y Fraudes)
Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2008:
Climate Audit 2 * Climate Audit 3 * Real Climate 2 * Junk Science * Wikipedia * Wikipedia Talk 1 * Wikipedia Talk 2 * Wikipedia Talk 3 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 1 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 2 * Global Warming Clearinghouse 3 * ICECAP * Climate Feedback (Nature) * Google Groups - alt.global-warming 1 * Google Groups - alt.global-warming 2 * Google Groups - alt.politics.usa * Google Groups - sci.environment * Google Groups - sci.physics * Yahoo Tech Groups * Yahoo Message Boards * Andrew Bolt Blog 5 * Andrew Bolt Blog 6 * Andrew Bolt Blog 7 * Andrew Bolt Blog 8 * Andrew Bolt Blog 9 * Andrew Bolt Blog 10 * Andrew Bolt Blog 11 * Andrew Bolt Blog 12 * Andrew Bolt Blog 13 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 4 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 5 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 6 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 7 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 8 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 9 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 10 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 11 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 12 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 13 * Jennifer Marohasy Blog 14 * The Blackboard 1 * The Blackboard 2 * The Motley Fool Discussion Boards 1 * The Motley Fool Discussion Boards 2 * The Daily Bayonet * FinanMart * JREF Forum 1 * JREF Forum 2 * JREF Forum 3 * AccuWeather * Climate Change Fraud 1 * Climate Change Fraud 2 * Climate Change Fraud 4 * Climate Change Fraud 5 * Watts Up With That? 1 * Watts Up With That? 2 * Watts Up With That? 3 * Watts Up With That? 4 * Watts Up With That? 5 * City-Data Forum * Climate Brains * Dvorak Uncensored * Newspoll * The Australian 1 * The Australian 2 * ABC Unleashed 1 * ABC Unleashed 2 * ABC Unleashed 3 * ABC Unleashed 4 * ABC Science Online Forum * Global Warming Skeptics * Niche Modeling * Dot Earth - The New York Times 1 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 2 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 3 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 4 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 5 * Dot Earth - The New York Times 6 * Bart Verheggen * WE Blog * Globe and Mail 1 * Globe and Mail 2 * Small Dead Animals * forums.ski.com.au * ABC Message Board * Sydney Morning Herald 1 (also published in the print version of the newspaper) * Sydney Morning Herald 2 * Sydney Morning Herald 3 * PistonHeads * Clipmarks * British Blogs * The Devil's Kitchen * Peak Oil Journal * The Volokh Conspiracy * Weather Underground * Capitol Grilling * Science & Environmental Policy Project * SookNET Technology * Climate Review 2 * Social Science News Central * Urban75 Forums * Wolf Howling * Launch Magazine Online * Popular Technology * The Environment Site Forums * CNC zone * Solar Cycle 24 Forums * Wired Science * Climate 411 * Daimnation * The Forum * Global Warming Information * Christian Forums 1 * Christian Forums 2 * CommonDreams.org 1 * CommonDreams.org 2 * Greenhouse Bullcrap 2 * Derkeiler Newsgroup * YouTube * Fresh Video * Topix * WeerOnline * The Air Vent * Greenfyre’s * Crikey * ChangeBringer * Scotsman.com News * Climate Change Controversies - David Pratt * Skeptical Science * Block’s Indicator of Sustainable Growth * Digg * Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub * News Busters * AgoraVox * Notre Planete * France 5 * Wissen - Sueddeutsche * Telepolis-Blogforen 1 * Telepolis-Blogforen 2 * Telepolis-Blogforen 3 * WirtschaftsWoche * Antizyklisches Forum * Oekologismus.de * Público.es * Uppsalainitiativet * Tiede.fi 1 * Tiede.fi 2 * Tiede.fi 3 * kolumbus.fi/ * De Rerum Natura * Ilmastonmuutos - totta vai tarua * Politics.be * Keisarin uudet vaatteet * Keskustelut * Que Treta * Svensson * Punditokraterne * StumbleUpon * Scribd
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/864/1/documents/2008HSJClimPredictions.pdf (997 KB)
Additional material:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar, ResearchGate or ResearchGate (additional)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 4. | #Drinkwater, K., M. Skogen, S. Hjøllo, C. Schrum, I. Alekseeva, M. Huret and F. Léger, The effects of future climate change on the physical oceanography and comparisons of the mean and variability of the future physical properties with present day conditions, Report, RECLAIM EU/FP6 project (REsolving CLimAtic IMpacts on fish stocks), WP4 Future oceanographic changes, 28 pp., 2008. |
| 5. | Halley, J. M., Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of earth’s temperature, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 388(12), 2492-2502, 2009. |
| 6. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., L. J. Mata, N. W. Arnell, P. Döll, B. Jimenez, K. Miller, T. Oki and Z. Şen, Water and climate projections—Reply to discussion “Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(2), 406-415, 2009. |
| 7. | Hollowed, A. B., N. A. Bond, T. K. Wilderbuer, W. T. Stockhausen, Z. T. Amar, R. J. Beamish, J. E. Overland, and M. J. Schirripa, A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change, ICES Journal Of Marine Science, 66(7), 1584-1594, 2009. |
| 8. | MacDonald, A. M., R. C. Calow, D. M. J. MacDonald, W. G. Darling, and B. É. Ó. Dochartaigh, What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(4), 690-703, 2009. |
| 9. | #Pilkey, O. H., and R. Young, The Rising Sea, 203 p., Island Press, Washington, DC, 2009. |
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| 12. | Matthews, J., and A. J. Wickel, Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation: A natural history approach, Climate and Development, 1(3), 269-279, 2009. |
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| 15. | Pittock, J., Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers, Climate and Development, 1(3), 194-211, 2009. |
| 16. | #McKenzie, J. M., D. I. Siegel, and D. O. Rosenberry, Improving conceptual models of water and carbon transfer through peat, Northern Peatlands and Carbon Cycling, Baird, A. J., L. R. Belyea, X. Comas, A. S. Reeve, and L. D. Slater (eds.), American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph Series, 184, 265-275, 2009. |
| 17. | #Roudier, P., et P. Quirion, Bilan des changements climatiques passés et futurs au Mali: rapport pour action contre la faim, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), 42 p., Juin 2009. |
| 18. | Blöschl, G., and A. Montanari, Climate change impacts - throwing the dice?, Hydrological Processes, 24(3), 374-381, 2010. |
| 19. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Y. Hirabayashi and S. Kanae, River floods in the changing climate—Observations and projections, Water Resources Management, 24(11), 2633-2646, 2010. |
| 20. | Romanowicz, R. J., A. Kiczko and J. J. Napiórkowski, Stochastic transfer function model applied to combined reservoir management and flow routing, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(1), 27–40, 2010. |
| 21. | Liu, S., X. Mo, Z. Lin, Y. Xu, J. Ji, G. Wen, and J. Richey, Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China, Agricultural Water Management, 97(8), 1195-1209, 2010. |
| 22. | Kawasaki, A., M. Takamatsu, J. He, P. Rogers, and S. Herath, An integrated approach to evaluate potential impact of precipitation and land-use change on streamflow in Srepok River Basin, Theory and Applications of GIS, 2010. |
| 23. | Vastila, K., M. Kummu, C. Sangmanee, and S. Chinvanno, Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the Lower Mekong floodplains, Journal of Water and Climate Change, 01.1, 67-86, 2010. |
| 24. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., and E. Z. Stakhiv, Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(7), 1085–1089, 2010. |
| 25. | Zhang, S.-F., Y. Gu, and J. Lin, Uncertainty analysis in the application of climate models, Shuikexue Jinzhan/Advances in Water Science, 21(4), 504-511, 2010. |
| 26. | Wu, S.-Y., Potential impact of climate change on flooding in the Upper Great Miami River Watershed, Ohio, USA: a simulation-based approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(8), 1251-1263, 2010. |
| 27. | Soon, W., and D. R. Legates, Avoiding carbon myopia: three considerations for policy makers concerning manmade carbon dioxide, Ecology Law Currents, 37(1), 2010. |
| 28. | #Liebscher, H.-J., and H. G. Mendel, Vom empirischen Modellansatz zum komplexen hydrologischen Flussgebietsmodell – Rückblick und Perspektiven, 132 p., Koblenz, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 2010. |
| 29. | #Maletta, H. E., and E. Maletta, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Latin America and the Caribbean, 319 p., 2010. |
| 30. | Stockwell, D. R. B., Critique of drought models in the Australian Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), Energy and Environment, 21(5), 425-436, 2010. |
| 31. | Kigobe, M., N. McIntyre, H. Wheater and R. Chandler, Multi-site stochastic modelling of daily rainfall in Uganda, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(1), 17–33, 2011. |
| 32. | Hänggi, P., and R. Weingartner, Inter-annual variability of runoff and climate within the Upper Rhine River basin, 1808–2007, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(1), 34–50, 2011. |
| 33. | Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, J.-Q. Xuan, D. Solomatine and S. Uhlenbrook, Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(2), 199-211, 2011. |
| 34. | Fatichi, S., V. Y. Ivanov, and E. Caporali, Simulation of future climate scenarios with a weather generator, Advances in Water Resources, 34(4), 448-467, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.12.013, 2011. |
| 35. | Mann, M. E., On long range dependence in global surface temperature series, Climatic Change, 107 (3), 267-276, 2011. |
| 36. | Kundzewicz, Z. W., Nonstationarity in water resources – Central European perspective, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(3), 550-562, 2011. |
| 37. | #Carter, B., D. Evans, S. Franks and W. Kininmonth, Scientific audit of a report from the Climate Commission: The Critical Decade ‐ Climate science, risks and responses, 14 pp., 2011. |
| 38. | Tertrais, B., The climate wars myth, The Washington Quarterly, 34 (3), 17-29, 2011. |
| 39. | Kiem, A. S., and D. C. Verdon-Kidd, Steps toward “useful” hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin, Water Resources Research, 47, W00G06, doi: 10.1029/2010WR009803, 2011. |
| 40. | Sivakumar, B., Water crisis: From conflict to cooperation – an overview, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 531-552, 2011. |
| 41. | Burke, E. J., Understanding the sensitivity of different drought metrics to the drivers of drought under increased atmospheric CO2, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12(6), 1378-1394, 2011. |
| 42. | #Rolim da Paz, A., C. Uvo, J. Bravo, W. Collischonn and H. R. da Rocha, Seasonal precipitation forecast based on artificial neural networks, Computational Methods for Agricultural Research: Advances and Applications, IGI Global, 326-354, doi: 10.4018/978-1-61692-871-1.ch016, 2011. |
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| 45. | Rao, A. R., M. Azli and L. J. Pae, Identification of trends in Malaysian monthly runoff under the scaling hypothesis, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(6), 917–929, 2011. |
| 46. | Huard, D., A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal, Discussion of “A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data”, by G. G. Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010, Hydrol. Sci. J. 55 (7), 1094–1110), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(7), 1330–1333, 2011. |
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| 48. | Stakhiv, E. Z., Pragmatic approaches for water management under climate change uncertainty, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(6), 1183-1196, 2011. |
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Remote sensing can assist in improving the estimation of the geographical distribution of evapotranspiration, and consequently water demand in large cultivated areas for irrigation purposes and sustainable water resources management. In the direction of these objectives, the daily actual evapotranspiration was calculated in this study during the summer season of 2001 over the Thessaly plain in Greece, a wide irrigated area of great agricultural importance. Three different methods were adapted and applied: the remote-sensing methods by Granger (2000) and Carlson and Buffum (1989) that use satellite data in conjunction with ground meteorological measurements and an adapted FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation) Penman-Monteith method (Allen at al. 1998), which was selected to be the reference method. The satellite data were used in conjunction with ground data collected on the three closest meteorological stations. All three methods, exploit visible channels 1 and 2 and infrared channels 4 and 5 of NOAA-AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) sensor images to calculate albedo and NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index), as well as surface temperatures. The FAO Penman-Monteith and the Granger method have used exclusively NOAA-15 satellite images to obtain mean surface temperatures. For the Carlson-Buffum method a combination of NOAA-14 and ΝΟΑΑ-15 satellite images was used, since the average rate of surface temperature rise during the morning was required. The resulting estimations show that both the Carlson-Buffum and Granger methods follow in general the variations of the reference FAO Penman-Monteith method. Both methods have potential for estimating the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration, whereby the degree of the relative agreement with the reference FAO Penman-Monteith method depends on the crop growth stage. In particular, the Carlson-Buffum method performed better during the first half of the crop development stage, while the Granger method performed better during the remaining of the development stage and the entire maturing stage. The parameter that influences the estimations significantly is the wind speed whose high values result in high underestimates of evapotranspiration. Thus, it should be studied further in future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/861/1/documents/2008SensorsEvaporation.pdf (188 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s8063586
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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| 1. | #Coronel, C., E. Rosales, F. Mora, A.A. López-Caloca, F.-O. Tapia-Silva, and G. Hernández, Monitoring evapotranspiration at landscape scale in Mexico: Applying the energy balance model using remotely-sensed data, Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering, 7104, art. no. 71040H, 2008. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, The choice of language and its relationship to the impact of hydrological studies. Reply to discussions of "Editorial-Quantifying the impact of hydrological studies", Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (2), 495–499, 2008.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/856/1/documents/hysj53_2_495.pdf (150 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.2.495
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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| 1. | Hughes, D. A., K. V. Heal and C. Leduc, Improving the visibility of hydrological sciences from developing countries, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.938653, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A power-law approximation of the turbulent flow friction factor useful for the design and simulation of urban water networks, Urban Water Journal, 5 (2), 117–115, 2008.
An approximation of the friction factor of the Colebrook-White equation is proposed, which is expressed as a power-law function of the pipe diameter and the energy gradient and is combined with the Darcy-Weisbach equation, thus yielding an overall power-law equation for turbulent pressurized pipe flow. This is a generalized Manning equation, whose exponents are not unique but depend on the pipe roughness. The parameters of this equation are determined by minimizing the approximation error and are given either in tabulated form or as mathematical expressions of roughness. The maximum approximation errors are much smaller than other errors resulting from uncertainty and misspecification of design and simulation quantities and also much smaller than in the original Manning and the Hazen-Willians equations. Both these equations can be obtained as special cases of the proposed generalized equation by setting the exponent parameters constant. For large roughness the original Manning equation improves in performance and becomes practically equivalent with the proposed generalized equation. Thus its use, particularly when the networks operate with surface flow is absolutely justified. In pressurized conditions the proposed generalized Manning equation can be a valid alternative to the combination of the Colebrook-White and Darcy-Weisbach equations, having the advantage of simplicity and speed of calculation both in manual and computer mode.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15730620701712325
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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| 1. | Perelman, L., A. Ostfeld and E. Salomons, Cross Entropy multiobjective optimization for water distribution systems design, Water Resources Research, 44 (9), Art. No. W09413, 2008. |
| 2. | Goulding, G. M. and Z. F. Hu, Urban wet-weather flows, Water Environment Research, 81 (10), 1003-1055, 2009. |
| 3. | #Butler, D., and J. Davies, Urban Drainage, 3rd edn., Taylor & Francis, 2011. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, H. Yao, and A. Georgakakos, Medium-range flow prediction for the Nile: a comparison of stochastic and deterministic methods, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (1), 142–164, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.1.142, 2008.
Due to its great importance, the availability of long flow records, contemporary as well as older, and the additional historical information of its behaviour, Nile is an ideal test case for identifying and understanding hydrological behaviours, and for model development. Such behaviours include the long term persistence, which historically has motivated the discovery of the Hurst phenomenon and has put into question classical statistical results and typical stochastic models. Based on the empirical evidence from the exploration of the Nile flows and on the theoretical insights provided by the principle of maximum entropy, a concept newly employed in hydrological stochastic modelling, an advanced yet simple stochastic methodology is developed. The approach is focused on the prediction of the Nile flow a month ahead but it is fairly general. The stochastic methodology is also compared with deterministic approaches, specifically an analogue (local nonlinear chaotic) model and a connectionist (artificial neural network) model based on the same flow record. All models have good performance with the stochastic model outperforming in prediction skills and the analogue model in simplicity. In addition, the stochastic model has other elements of superiority such as ability to provide long-term simulations and to improve understanding of natural behaviours.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/799/1/documents/2007HSJNilePrediction.pdf (446 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.1.142
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Benyahya, L., Α. St-Hilaire, T.B.M.J. Ouarda, Β. Bobee and J. Dumas, Comparison of non-parametric and parametric water temperature models on the Nivelle River, France, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(3), 640-655, 2008. |
| 2. | Aytek, A., A. Guven, M.I. Yuce and H. Aksoy, An explicit neural network formulation for evapotranspiration, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 893-904, 2008. |
| 3. | El-Shafie, A., A. Noureldin, M. Taha, and H. Basri, Neural network model for Nile River inflow forecasting based on correlation analysis of historical inflow data, Journal of Applied Sciences, 8(24), 4487-4499, 2008. |
| 4. | Ozger, M., Comparison of fuzzy inference systems for streamflow prediction, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(2), 261-273, 2009. |
| 5. | Hamed, K. H., Effect of persistence on the significance of Kendall’s tau as a measure of correlation between natural time series, The European Physical Journal, 174 (1), 65-79, 2009. |
| 6. | #Kileshye Onema, J.-M., Z. Katambara and A. Taigbenu, Shuffled complex evolution and multi-linear approaches to flow prediction in the equatorial Nile basin, First Annual Nile Basin Research Conference, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, 2009. |
| 7. | Hassan, S. A. and M. R. K. Ansari, Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55(2), 250–265, 2010. |
| 8. | Londhe, S., and S. Charhate, Comparison of data-driven modelling techniques for river flow forecasting, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55(7), 1163–1174, 2010. |
| 9. | Archfield, S. A., and R. M. Vogel, Map correlation method: Selection of a reference streamgage to estimate daily streamflow at ungaged catchments, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10513, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008481, 2010. |
| 10. | Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, J.-Q. Xuan, D. Solomatine and S. Uhlenbrook, Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56(2), 199-211, 2011. |
| 11. | Muluye, G. Y., Improving long-range hydrological forecasts with extended Kalman filters, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56 (7), 1118–1128, 2011. |
| 12. | Ndiritu, J., A variable length block bootstrap for multi-site synthetic streamflow generation, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56 (3), 362-379, 2011. |
| 13. | Swain, A., Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate, Hydrol. Sci. J., 56 (4), 687–702, 2011. |
| 14. | Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, Y. Xuan, D. Solomatine and S. Uhlenbrook, A Critical Discussion of Recent Studies Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Nile basin, Nile Basin Water Science & Engineering Journal, 4 (2), 94-100, 2011. |
| 15. | Kileshye Onema, J.-M., A., Taigbenu and J. Ndiritu, J.: Classification and flow prediction in a data-scarce watershed of the Equatorial Nile region, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1435-1443, 2012. |
| 16. | Costa, A.C., A. Bronstert and D. Kneis, Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25, 2012. |
| 17. | Boukharouba, K., Annual stream flow simulation by ARMA processes and prediction by Kalman filter, Arab J. Geosci., 6 (7), 2193-2201, 2013. |
| 18. | Hrachowitz, M., H.H.G. Savenije, G. Blöschl, J.J. McDonnell, M. Sivapalan, J.W. Pomeroy, B. Arheimer, T. Blume, M.P. Clark, U. Ehret, F. Fenicia, J.E. Freer, A. Gelfan, H.V. Gupta, D.A. Hughes, R.W. Hut, A. Montanari, S. Pande, D. Tetzlaff, P.A. Troch, S. Uhlenbrook, T. Wagener, H.C. Winsemius, R.A. Woods, E. Zehe, and C. Cudennec, A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) — a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198-1255, 2013. |
| 19. | Markovic, D., and M. Koch, Stream response to precipitation variability: A spectral view based on analysis and modelling of hydrological cycle components, Hydrological Processes, 29 (7), 1806-1816, 2015. |
| 20. | Svensson, C.,Seasonal river flow forecasts for the United Kingdom using persistence and historical analogues, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.992788, 2015. |
C. Makropoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Stanic, S. Djordevic, D. Prodanovic, T. Dasic, S. Prohaska, C. Maksimovic, and H. S. Wheater, A multi-model approach to the simulation of large scale karst flows, Journal of Hydrology, 348 (3-4), 412–424, 2008.
The possible effects of water transfer through a tunnel from Fatnicko Polje to Bileca Reservoir on the hydrologic regime of the Bregava River located in Eastern Herzegovina, in an area characterised by a predominantly karstic terrain, are studied. Three different simulation models of the area were developed and their predictions compared under a range of current and future hydrological and operational management conditions. These are based on a range of modelling approaches from a simplified conceptual approach to a quasi-physically based one. Despite the large complexity of the natural system, the models gave good fits to existing flow data with the most simplified model providing the closest agreement to historical flows. Calibrated models were used to study the possible effects of the intervention under a range of operational scenarios and identify the sources of the associated uncertainties. The results of the work suggest that the system of tunnels in question has a favourable effect in reducing flood hazard in the area, thus liberating scarce land resources for agriculture, and in reducing flows in the Bregava River (especially high flows). It is also suggested that a significant reduction in the uncertainty of modelling the karstic environment can be achieved by an appropriate, complementary combination of modelling approaches viewed as a multi-model ensemble.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.10.011
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 4. | Bauwens, A., C. Sohier and A. Degré, Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1745-1756, doi: 10.5194/hess-15-1745-2011, 2011. |
| 5. | #Kukuric, N., van der Gun, J., Vasak, S., Bonacci, O., Polshkova, I., Tujchneider, O., Perez, M., Paris, M., D'elia, M., Ngatcha, B. N., Mudry, J., Chadha, D. K., Wendland, F., Berthold, G., Blum, A., Fritsche, H.-G., Kunkel, R., Wolter, R., Drobot, R., Szucs, P., Brouyere, S., Minciuna, M.-N., Lenart, L., Dassargues, A., Stevanović, Z., Kozák, P., Lazić, M., Szanyi, J., Polomčić, D., Kovács, B., Török, J., Milanović, S., Hajdin, B., Papic, P., Meglič, P. and Prestor, J., Transboundary Aquifers, in Transboundary Water Resources Management: A Multidisciplinary Approach (eds J. Ganoulis, A. Aureli and J. Fried), Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim, Germany, doi: 10.1002/9783527636655.ch4, 2011. |
| 6. | Long, Y. Q., W. Li, W. X. Lu and T. T. Cui, Modeling the recovery of the spring flow and groundwater level in a depleted karst aquifer - a case study of the Jinci Spring, Applied Mechanics and Materials, 448-453, 989-994, 2013. |
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| 8. | #Bonacci, O., Poljes, ponors and their catchments, Treatise on Geomorphology, 6, 112-120, 2013. |
| 9. | Raynaud, F., V. Borrell-Estupina, S. Pistre, S. Van-Exter, N. Bourgeois, A. Dezetter and E. Servat, Combining hydraulic model, hydrogeomorphological observations and chemical analyses of surface waters to improve knowledge on karst flash floods genesis, Proc. IAHS, 369, 55-60, 10.5194/piahs-369-55-2015, 2015. |
| 10. | Merheb, M., R. Moussa, C. Abdallah, F. Colin, C. Perrin, and N. Baghdadi, Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1140174, 2016. |
A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, A. Koukouvinos, E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, HYDROGEIOS: A semi-distributed GIS-based hydrological model for modified river basins, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12, 989–1006, doi:10.5194/hess-12-989-2008, 2008.
The HYDROGEIOS modelling framework represents the main processes of the hydrological cycle in heavily modified catchments, with decision-depended abstractions and interactions between surface and groundwater flows. A semi-distributed approach and a monthly simulation time step are adopted, which are sufficient for water resources management studies. The modelling philosophy aims to ensure consistency with the physical characteristics of the system, while keeping the number of parameters as low as possible. Therefore, multiple levels of schematisation and parameterisation are adopted, by combining multiple levels of geographical data. To optimally allocate human abstractions from the hydrosystem during a planning horizon or even to mimic the allocation occurred in a past period (e.g. the calibration period), in the absence of measured data, a linear programming problem is formulated and solved within each time step. With this technique the fluxes across the hydrosystem are estimated, and the satisfaction of physical and operational constraints is ensured. The model framework includes a parameter estimation module that involves various goodness-of-fit measures and state-of-the-art evolutionary algorithms for global and multiobjective optimisation. By means of a challenging case study, the paper discusses appropriate modelling strategies which take advantage of the above framework, with the purpose to ensure a robust calibration and reproduce natural and human induced processes in the catchment as faithfully as possible.
Remarks:
Permission is granted to reproduce and modify this paper under the terms of the Creative Commons NonCommercial ShareAlike 2.5 license. The discussion paper and its reviews are shown in the HESSD site.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/787/1/documents/hess-12-989-2008.pdf (3843 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-989-2008
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 2. | #Isidoro, J. M. G. P., J. I. J, Rodrigues, J. M. R. Martins, and J. L. M. P. De Lima, Evolution of urbanization in a small urban basin: DTM construction for hydrologic computation, Status and Perspectives of Hydrology in Small Basins, edited by A. Herrmann and S. Schumann, IAHS-AISH Publication 336, 109-114, 2010. |
| 3. | Price, C., Y. Yair, A. Mugnai, K. Lagouvardos, M. C. Llasat, S. Michaelides, U. Dayan, S. Dietrich, E. Galanti, L. Garrote, N. Harats, D. Katsanos, M. Kohn, V. Kotroni, M. Llasat-Botija, B. Lynn, L. Mediero, E. Morin, K. Nicolaides, S. Rozalis, K. Savvidou, and B. Ziv, The FLASH Project: using lightning data to better understand and predict flash floods, Environmental Science and Policy, 14(7), 898-911, 2011. |
| 4. | Bahadur, K. K. C., Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing, GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin, Thailand, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(6), 994-1014, 2011. |
| 5. | #SIRRIMED (Sustainable use of irrigation water in the Mediterranean Region), D4.2 and D5.2 Report on Models to be Implemented in the District Information Systems (DIS) and Watershed Information Systems (WIS), 95 pp., Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 2011. |
| 6. | Mediero, L., L. Garrote and F. J. Martín-Carrasco, Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(7), 1129–1149, 2011. |
| 7. | Flipo, N., C. Monteil, M. Poulin, C. de Fouquet, and M. Krimissa, Hybrid fitting of a hydrosystem model: Long term insight into the Beauce aquifer functioning (France), Water Recourses Research, 48, W05509, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011092, 2012. |
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| 9. | Hrachowitz, M., H.H.G. Savenije, G. Blöschl, J.J. McDonnell, M. Sivapalan, J.W. Pomeroy, B. Arheimer, T. Blume, M.P. Clark, U. Ehret, F. Fenicia, J.E. Freer, A. Gelfan, H.V. Gupta, D.A. Hughes, R.W. Hut, A. Montanari, S. Pande, D. Tetzlaff, P.A. Troch, S. Uhlenbrook, T. Wagener, H.C. Winsemius, R.A. Woods, E. Zehe, and C. Cudennec, A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) — a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198-1255, 2013. |
| 10. | #Loukas, A., and L. Vasiliades, Review of applied methods for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment in Greece, In: A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment, Floodfreq COST action ES0901: European procedures for flood frequency estimation (ed. by H. Madsen et al.), Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK, 2013. |
| 11. | Varni, M., R. Comas, P. Weinzettel and S. Dietrich, Application of the water table fluctuation method to characterize groundwater recharge in the Pampa plain, Argentina, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1445-1455, 2013. |
| 12. | Han, J.-C., G.-H. Huang, H. Zhang, Z. Li, and Y.-P Li, Effects of watershed subdivision level on semi-distributed hydrological simulations: case study of the SLURP model applied to the Xiangxi River watershed, China, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 108-125, 2014. |
| 13. | Gharari, S., M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije, Using expert knowledge to increase realism in environmental system models can dramatically reduce the need for calibration, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4839-4859, doi:10.5194/hessd-10-14801-2013, 2013. |
| 14. | #Savvidou, E., O. Tzoraki and D. Skarlatos, Delineating hydrological response units in a mountainous catchment and its evaluation on water mass balance and model performance, Proc. SPIE 9229, Second International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2014), 922918, doi:10.1117/12.2068592, 2014. |
| 15. | Wi, S., Y.C.E. Yang, S. Steinschneider, A. Khalil, and C.M. Brown, Calibration approaches for distributed hydrologic models in poorly gaged basins: implication for streamflow projections under climate change, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 857-876, doi:10.5194/hess-19-857-2015, 2015. |
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| 17. | #Soulis, K. X., D. Manolakos, J. Anagnostopoulos, and D. Panantonis, Assessing the hydropower potential of historical hydro sites using a geo-information system and hydrological modeling in poorly gauged areas, 9th World Congress of the European Water Resources Association (EWRA) “Water Resources Management in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities”, Istanbul, 2015. |
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| 19. | Hughes, J. D., S. S. H. Kim, D. Dutta, and J. Vaze, Optimisation of a multiple gauge, regulated river–system model. A system approach, Hydrological Processes, 30(12), 1955–1967, doi:10.1002/hyp.10752, 2016. |
| 20. | Merheb, M., R. Moussa, C. Abdallah, F. Colin, C. Perrin, and N. Baghdadi, Hydrological response characteristics of Mediterranean catchments at different time scales: a meta-analysis, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(14), 2520-2539, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1140174, 2016. |
| 21. | Beskow, S., L. C. Timm, V. E. Q. Tavares, T. L. Caldeira, and L. S. Aquino, Potential of the LASH model for water resources management in data-scarce basins: a case study of the Fragata River basin, southern Brazil, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(14), 2567-2578, doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1133912, 2016. |
| 22. | Soulis, K. X., D. Manolakos, J. Anagnostopoulos, and D. Papantonis, Development of a geo-information system embedding a spatially distributed hydrological model for the preliminary assessment of the hydropower potential of historical hydro sites in poorly gauged areas, Renewable Energy, 92, 222-232, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2016.02.013, 2016. |
| 23. | Ercan, A., E. C. Dogrul, and T. N. Kadir, Investigation of the groundwater modelling component of the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(16), 2834-2848, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1161765, 2016. |
| 24. | #Peng, Y., K. Wang, P. Zhou, and W. Qin, Research on multi-scale optimal allocation of land resources in Savan district, Laos, 25th International Conference on Geoinformatics, Buffalo, NY, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), doi:10.1109/GEOINFORMATICS.2017.8090930, 2017. |
| 25. | Soulis, K. X., and D. E. Tsesmelis, Calculation of the irrigation water needs spatial and temporal distribution in Greece, European Water, 59, 247-254, 2017. |
| 26. | Gourgoulios, V., and I. Nalbantis, Ungauged drainage basins: Investigation on the basin of Peneios River, Thessaly, Greece, European Water, 57, 163-169, 2017. |
| 27. | Sadaoui, M., W. Ludwig, F. Bourrin, E. Romero, The impact of reservoir construction on riverine sediment and carbon fluxes to the Mediterranean Sea, Progress in Oceanography, 163, 94-111, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2017.08.003, 2018. |
| 28. | Nguyen, V. T., and J. Dietrich, Modification of the SWAT model to simulate regional groundwater flow using a multi-cell aquifer, Hydrological Processes, 32(7), 939-953, doi:10.1002/hyp.11466, 2018. |
| 29. | de Souza, B. A., I. da Silva Rocha Paz, A. Ichiba, B. Willinger, A. Gires, J. C. C. Amorim, M. de Miranda Reis, B. Tisserand, I. Tchiguirinskaia, and D. Schertzer, Multi-Hydro hydrological modelling of a complex peri-urban catchment with storage basins comparing C-band and X-band radar rainfall data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63(11), 1619-1635, doi:10.1080/02626667.2018.1520390, 2018. |
| 30. | Kopsiaftis, G., V. Christelis, and A. Mantoglou, Comparison of sharp interface to variable density models in pumping optimisation of coastal aquifers, Water Resources Management, 33(4), 1397-1409, doi:10.1007/s11269-019-2194-7, 2019. |
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| 32. | Rozos, E., A methodology for simple and fast streamflow modelling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(7), 1084-1095, doi:10.1080/02626667.2020.1728475, 2020. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Zarkadoulas, A. N. Angelakis, and G. Tchobanoglous, Urban water management in Ancient Greece: Legacies and lessons, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management - ASCE, 134 (1), 45–54, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2008)134:1(45), 2008.
The evolution of urban water management in ancient Greece, beginning in Crete during the early Minoan period, resulted in a variety of remarkable developments in both the mainland and islands of Greece. Important developments include the implementation of hygienic living standards, advanced hydraulic technologies for water transportation, constructions for flood and sediment control, and sustainable urban water management practices, which can be compared to modern day practices. The evolution of water management was also related to the socio-political conditions. During oligarchic periods the emphasis was on the construction of large-scale hydraulic projects, whereas in democratic periods the focus of water management was on sustainable small scale, safe and cost efficient management practices, and institutional arrangements related to both the private and the public sectors. Such practices and institutions are relevant even today, as the water related problems of modern societies are not very different from those in antiquity.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2008)134:1(45)
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Angelakis, A.N., Y.M. Savvakis, and G. Charalampakis, Minoan aqueducts: A pioneering technology, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 423-429, 2006. |
| 2. | #Antoniou, G., R. Xarchakou and A.N. Angelakis, Water cistern systems in Greece from Minoan to Hellenistic period, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 457-462, 2006. |
| 3. | #Dialynas, E., A. Lyrintzis and A.N. Angelakis, Historical development of water supply in Iraklio city, Greece, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 671-676, 2006. |
| 4. | Angelakis, A.N., Y.M. Savvakis and G. Charalampakis, Aqueducts during the Minoan Era, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7(1), 95-101, 2007. |
| 5. | Mays, L.W., A very brief history of hydraulic technology during antiquity, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 8 (5-6), 471-484, 2008. |
| 6. | Batterman, S., J. Eisenberg, R. Hardin, M.E. Kruk, M.C. Lemos, A. Michalak, B. Mukherjee, E. Renne, H. Stein, C. Watkins and M.L. Wilson, Sustainable control of water-related infectious diseases: a review and proposal for interdisciplinary health-based systems research, Environmental Health Perspectives, 117(7), 1023–1032, 2009. |
| 7. | Gikas, P., and G.Tchobanoglous, Sustainable use of water in the Aegean Islands, Journal of Environmental Management, 90(8), 2601-2611, 2009. |
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| 9. | #Mays, L. W., A brief history of water technology during antiquity: Before the Romans, In Ancient Water Technologies, edited by L. W. Mays, 1-28, Springer, Dordrecht, 2010. |
| 10. | #Mays, L. W., Lessons from the Ancients on water resources sustainability, In Ancient Water Technologies, edited by L. W. Mays, 217-239, Springer, Dordrecht, 2010. |
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C. Cudennec, C. Leduc, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions -- a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52 (6), 1077–1087, doi:10.1623/hysj.52.6.1077, 2007.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/837/1/documents/2007HSJDrylandHydrology.pdf (425 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.6.1077
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Discussion of "Generalized regression neural networks for evapotranspiration modelling", Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52 (4), 832–835, 2007.
It is maintained that the so-called "artificial neural networks" despite being powerful computational tools to model complex nonlinear systems, in other cases have been abused. Their abuse has been indirectly assisted by the numerous technical details, inapproachable for the majority of scientists, and even by the exotic ANN vocabulary. By the occasion of the study being discussed, it is maintained that "artificial neural networks" may not contribute in understanding natural processes and may result in misleading conclusions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/788/1/documents/2007HSJDiscKisiProof.pdf (377 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.4.832
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
Today, hydrologic research and modeling depends largely on climatological inputs, whose physical and statistical behavior are the subject of many debates in the scientific community. A relevant ongoing discussion is focused on long-term persistence (LTP), a natural behavior identified in several studies of instrumental and proxy hydroclimatic time series, which, nevertheless, is neglected in some climatological studies. LTP may reflect a long-term variability of several factors and thus can support a more complete physical understanding and uncertainty characterization of climate. The implications of LTP in hydroclimatic research, especially in statistical questions and problems, may be substantial but appear to be not fully understood or recognized. To offer insights on these implications, we demonstrate by using analytical methods that the characteristics of temperature series, which appear to be compatible with the LTP hypothesis, imply a dramatic increase of uncertainty in statistical estimation and reduction of significance in statistical testing, in comparison with classical statistics. Therefore we maintain that statistical analysis in hydroclimatic research should be revisited in order not to derive misleading results and simultaneously that merely statistical arguments do not suffice to verify or falsify the LTP (or another) climatic hypothesis.
Remarks:
For a weblog discussion of the paper see Niche Modeling.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005592
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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L.W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. N. Angelakis, A brief history of urban water supply in antiquity, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7 (1), 1–12, doi:10.2166/ws.2007.001, 2007.
A brief history of ancient water supply techniques for urban areas from the earliest civilizations through the Roman times is presented. Throughout the history of urban centers, a sufficient water supply has been the backbone of each city. All sources of water, rivers, lakes, springs, underground sources, and rainwater collection, were exploited for urban supply starting from the earliest civilizations. The specific choice was depending upon the civilization, the geomorphology, the topography, and the local climatic and hydrological conditions. No large-scale lifting techniques were available; thus, water was transferred from the source by aqueducts from a higher altitude. Cisterns used for collection of rain water and wells for drawing groundwater were very well developed since the Bronze Age. During historical times, Greeks and later Romans reached a high level of water supply technologies that greatly influenced modern achievements in water engineering and management.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2007.001
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 27. | #Yannopoulos, S. I., G. Lyberatos, A. N. Angelakis and N. Theodossiou, Water pumps through the Ages, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 615-26, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Tegos, Logical and illogical exegeses of hydrometeorological phenomena in ancient Greece, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7 (1), 13–22, 2007.
Technological applications aiming at the exploitation of the natural sources appear in all ancient civilizations. The unique phenomenon in the ancient Greek civilization is that technological needs triggered physical explanations of natural phenomena, thus enabling the foundation of philosophy and science. Among these, the study of hydrometeorological phenomena had a major role. This study begins with the Ionian philosophers in the seventh century BC, continues in classical Athens in the fifth and fourth centuries BC, and advances and expands through the entire Greek world up to the end of Hellenistic period. Many of the theories developed by ancient Greeks are erroneous according to modern views. However, many elements in Greek exegeses of hydrometeorological processes, such as evaporation and condensation of vapour, creation of clouds, hail, snow and rainfall, and evolution of hydrological cycle, are impressive even today.
Related works:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2007.002
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Mays, L.W., A very brief history of hydraulic technology during antiquity, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 8 (5-6), 471-484, 2008. |
| 2. | Angelakis, A. N., and D. S. Spyridakis, A brief history of water supply and wastewater management in ancient Greece, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 10 (4), 618-628, 2010. |
| 3. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. G. Dialynas and V. Despotakis, Evolution of water supply technologies through the centuries in Crete, Greece, Ch. 9 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 227-258, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
A. N. Angelakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water and wastewater technologies in ancient civilizations: Prolegomena, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7 (1), vii–ix, 2007.
The last century and a half has seen major advances in water resources science, management and, above all, technology, but these successes also highlight major unresolved problems related to the adequacy of water supply and irrigation water, the protection from floods and droughts, and the contamination of surface and ground water. One response to these challenges has been to revisit the past and investigate well tried and successful past solutions. Frequently, those who examined the archaeological and historical evidence were impressed by the similarity of problems with modern ones and the sophistication of technological and managerial solutions applied. These technologies and management practices in many ancient civilizations regularly displayed impressive durability and sustainability, characteristics that have again become properly appreciated and valued only in the last few decades.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Angelakis, A. N., and D. S. Spyridakis, A brief history of water supply and wastewater management in ancient Greece, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 10 (4), 618-628, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Editorial - Quantifying the impact of hydrological studies, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52 (1), 3–17, 2007.
Methods for quantifying the impact of published results of hydrological studies are reviewed for an individual article, for an author, and for a journal. The simple Impact Factor metric (provided by the Institute for Scientific Information) has been the most broadly used index for evaluation of a journal (and - indirectly - of a scientist and an institution). However, the newly introduced h-index is a very attractive concept of quantification of the impact of an individual, with considerable potential for the future. Analysis of citations in hydrological journals was carried out and compared to the large population of all scientific journals. Rankings of top hydrology articles are reviewed and analyses of the impact of studies by hydrological sciences champions, including winners of the International Hydrology Prize, is offered.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/746/1/documents/2007HSJEditorial.pdf (481 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.1.3
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 13. | Kundzewicz, Z.W. Farewell, HSJ!—address from the retiring editor, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2015.1058627, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, doi:10.1175/JHM576.1, 2007.
During the last decade, numerous studies have been carried out to predict future climate based on climatic models run on the global scale and fed by plausible scenarios about anthropogenic forcing to climate. Based on climatic model output, hydrologic models attempt then to predict future hydrologic regimes at regional scales. Much less systematic work has been done to estimate climatic uncertainty and to assess the climatic and hydrologic model outputs within an uncertainty perspective. In this study, a stochastic framework for future climatic uncertainty is proposed, based on the following lines: (1) climate is not constant but rather varying in time and expressed by the long-term (e.g. 30-year) time average of a natural process, defined on a fine scale; (2) the evolution of climate is represented as a stochastic process; (3) the distributional parameters of a process, marginal and dependence, are estimated from an available sample by statistical methods; (4) the climatic uncertainty is the result of at least two factors, the climatic variability and the uncertainty of parameter estimation; (5) a climatic process exhibits a scaling behavior, also known as long-range dependence or the Hurst phenomenon; (6) because of this dependence, the uncertainty limits of the future are affected by the available observations of the past. The last two lines differ from classical statistical considerations and produce uncertainty limits that eventually are much wider than those of classical statistics. A combination of analytical and Monte Carlo methods is developed to determine uncertainty limits for the nontrivial scaling case. The framework developed is applied with temperature, rainfall and runoff data from a catchment in Greece, for which data exist for about a century. The uncertainty limits are then superimposed onto deterministic projections up to 2050, obtained for several scenarios and climatic models combined with a hydrologic model. These projections indicate a significant increase of temperature in the future, beyond uncertainty bands, and no significant change of rainfall and runoff as they lie well within uncertainty limits.
Remarks:
Erratum in equation (A3) in the final paper; see the correct version in preprint.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM576.1
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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S. Grimaldi, D. Koutsoyiannis, D. Piccolo, and F. Napolitano, Editorial - Time series analysis in hydrology, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 31 (18), 1097–1098, 2006.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2006.09.001
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Mill, O., N. Dahlbäck, A. Wörman, S. Knutsson, F. Johansson, P. Andreasson, J. Yang, U. Lundin, J-O. Aidanpää, H. Nilsson, M. Cervantes, S. Glavatskih, Analysis and Development of Hydro Power Research, Swedish Hydro Power Centre, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Editorial - Grateful and apprehensive, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51 (6), 987–988, 2006.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/738/1/documents/2006Editorial2.pdf (420 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.6.987
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Han, D., Editorial, Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineers, Water Management, 160 (3), 133-134, 2007. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the quest for chaotic attractors in hydrological processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51 (6), 1065–1091, doi:10.1623/hysj.51.6.1065, 2006.
In the last two decades, several researchers have claimed to have discovered low-dimensional determinism in hydrological processes, such as rainfall and runoff, using methods of chaotic analysis. Such results, however, have been criticized by others. In an attempt to offer additional insights into this discussion, it is shown here that in some cases merely the careful application of concepts of dynamical systems, without doing any calculation, provides strong indications that hydrological processes cannot be (low-dimensional) deterministic chaotic. Furthermore, it is shown that specific peculiarities of hydrological processes on fine timescales, such as asymmetric, J-shaped distribution functions, intermittency, and high autocorrelations, are synergistic factors that can lead to misleading conclusions regarding presence of (low-dimensional) deterministic chaos. In addition the recovery of a hypothetical attractor from a time series is put as a statistical estimation problem whose study allows, among others, quantification of the required sample size; this appears to be so huge that it prohibits any accurate estimation even with the largest available hydrological records. All these arguments are demonstrated using appropriately synthesized theoretical examples. Finally, in light of the theoretical analyses and arguments, typical real-world hydrometeorological time series, such as relative humidity, rainfall, and runoff, are explored and none of them is found to indicate the presence of chaos.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/714/3/documents/2006HSJChaoticAttractors.pdf (1831 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.6.1065
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Clark, S.E., S. Burian, R. Pitt and R. Field, Urban wet-weather flows, Water Environment Research, 79(10), 1166-1227, 2007. |
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| 5. | #Sivakumar, B., Chaos theory for hydrologic modeling and forecasting: Progress and challenges, Handbook of Research on Hydroinformatics: Technologies, Theories and Applications, 199-227, 2010. |
| 6. | Galloway, D. L., The complex future of hydrogeology, Hydrogeology Journal, 18(4), 807-810, 2010. |
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| 11. | Costa, A.C., A. Bronstert and D. Kneis, Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25, 2012. |
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Z. W. Kundzewicz, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Pathologies, improvements and optimism, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51 (2), 357–363, 2006.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/702/1/documents/2006HSJEditorial.pdf (169 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.2.357
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Cudennec, C., On width function-based unit hydrographs deduced from separately random self-similar river networks and rainfall variability, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(1), 230-237, 2007. |
| 2. | Cudennec, C., and P. Hubert, The multi-objective role of HSJ in processing and disseminating hydrological knowledge - Discussion of "Editorial - Quantifying the impact of hydrological studies", Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(2), 485-487, 2008. |
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic approach to the concept of probable maximum precipitation, Advances in Geosciences, 7, 51-54, doi:10.5194/adgeo-7-51-2006, 2006.
The concept of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is based on the assumptions that (a) there exists an upper physical limit of the precipitation depth over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year, and (b) that this limit can be estimated based on deterministic considerations. The most representative and widespread estimation method of PMP is the so-called moisture maximization method. This method maximizes observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would hypothetically rise up to a high value that is regarded as an upper limit and is estimated from historical records of dew points. In this paper, it is argued that fundamental aspects of the method may be flawed or inconsistent. Furthermore, historical time series of dew points and "constructed" time series of maximized precipitation depths (according to the moisture maximization method) are analyzed. The analyses do not provide any evidence of an upper bound either in atmospheric moisture or maximized precipitation depth. Therefore, it is argued that a probabilistic approach is more consistent to the natural behaviour and provides better grounds for estimating extreme precipitation values for design purposes.
Remarks:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/701/1/documents/2006AdGeoPMP.pdf (493 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-7-51-2006
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 14. | #Salas, J. D., G. Gavilán, F. R. Salas, P. Y. Julien and J. Abdullah, Uncertainty of the PMP and PMF, Handbook of Engineering Hydrology - Modeling, Climate Change and Variability (ed. by S. Eslamian), Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 575-603, 2014. |
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| 16. | Rousseau, A. N., I. M. Klein, D. Freudiger, P. Gagnon, A. Frigon and C. Ratté-Fortin, Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada, Journal of Hydrology, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.053, 2014. |
| 17. | Micovic, Z., M.G. Schaefer and G.H. Taylor, Uncertainty analysis for Probable Maximum Precipitation estimates, Journal of Hydrology, 521, 360-373, 2015. |
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A multicell karstic aquifer model with alternative flow equations, Journal of Hydrology, 325 (1-4), 340–355, 2006.
A multicell groundwater model was constructed to investigate the potential improvement in the modelling of karstic aquifers by using a mixed equation suitable for both the free surface and pressure flow conditions in karstic conduits. To estimate the model parameters the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) optimisation method was used. This ensured a fast and objective model calibration. The model was applied to two real-world karstic aquifers and it became clear that in case of absence of water level measurements, the use of the mixed equation did not improved the performance. In cases where both spring discharge and water level measurements were available, the use of the mixed equation proved to be advantageous in reproducing the features of the observed time series especially of the water level.
Related works:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.021
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy, interpreted as maximum uncertainty, is used to explain the observed dependence properties of the rainfall occurrence process, including the clustering behavior and persistence. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that the rainfall processes is intermittent with dependent occurrences. Intermittency is quantified by the probability that a time interval is dry, and dependence is quantified by the probability that two consecutive intervals are dry. These two probabilities are used as constraints in a multiple scale entropy maximization framework, which determines any conditional or unconditional probability of any sequence of dry and wet intervals at any time scale. Thus, the rainfall occurrence process including its dependence structure is described by only two parameters. This dependence structure appears to be non-Markovian. Application of this theoretical framework to the rainfall data set of Athens indicates good agreement of theoretical predictions and empirical data at the entire range of scales for which probabilities dry and wet can be estimated (from one hour to several months).
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004175
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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The perception of a changing climate, which impacts also hydrological processes, is now generally admitted. However, the way of handling the changing nature of climate in hydrologic practice and especially in hydrological statistics has not become clear so far. The most common modelling approach is to assume that long-term trends, which have been found to be omnipresent in long hydrological time series, are "deterministic" components of the time series and the processes represented by the time series are nonstationary. In this paper, it is maintained that this approach is contradictory in its rationale and even in the terminology it uses. As a result, it may imply misleading perception of phenomena and estimate of uncertainty. Besides, it is maintained that a stochastic approach hypothesizing stationarity and simultaneously admitting a scaling behaviour reproduces climatic trends (considering them as large-scale fluctuations) in a manner that is logically consistent, easy to apply and free of paradoxical results about uncertainty.
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Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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It is demonstrated that a simple deterministic model in discrete time can capture the scaling behaviour of hydroclimatic processes at time scales coarser than annual. This toy model is based on a generalized "chaotic tent map", which may be considered as the compound result of a positive and a negative feedback mechanism, and involves two degrees of freedom. The model is not a realistic representation of a climatic system, but rather a radical simplification of real climatic dynamics. However, its simplicity enables easy implementation, even on a spreadsheet environment, and convenient experimentation. Application of the toy model gives traces that can resemble historical time series of hydroclimatic variables, such as temperature, rainfall and runoff. In particular, such traces exhibit scaling behaviour with a Hurst exponent greater than 0.5 and density function similar to that of observed time series. Moreover, application demonstrates that large-scale synthetic "climatic" fluctuations (like upward or downward trends) can emerge without any specific reason and their evolution is unpredictable, even when they are generated by this simple fully deterministic model with only two degrees of freedom. Obviously, however, the fact that such a simple model can generate time series that are realistic surrogates of real climatic series does not mean that a real climatic system involves that simple dynamics.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.030
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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A. Langousis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic methodology for generation of seasonal time series reproducing overyear scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 138–154, 2006.
In generating synthetic time series of hydrological processes at sub-annual scales it is important to preserve seasonal characteristics and short-term persistence. At the same time, it is equally important to preserve annual characteristics and overyear scaling behaviour. This scaling behaviour, which is equivalent to the Hurst phenomenon, has been detected in a large number of hydroclimatic series and affects seriously planning and design of hydrosystems. However, when seasonal models are used the preservation of annual characteristics and overyear scaling is a difficult task and is often ignored unless disaggregation techniques are applied, which, however, involve several difficulties (e.g. in parameter estimation) and inaccuracies. As an alternative, a new methodology is proposed that directly operates on seasonal time scale, avoiding disaggregation, and simultaneously preserves annual statistics and the scaling properties on overyear time scales. Two specific stochastic models are proposed, a simple widely used seasonal model with short memory to which long-term persistence is imposed using a linear filter, and a combination of two sub-models, a stationary one with long memory and a cyclostationary one with short memory. Both models are tested in a real world case and found to be accurate in reproducing all the desired statistical properties and virtually equivalent from an operational point of view.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.037
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Arganis-Juarez, M.L., D. Dominguez Mora Ramon, H.L. Cisneros-Iturbe and G.E. Fuentes-Mariles, Synthetic sample generation of monthly inflows into two dams using the modified Svanidze method, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(1), 130-141, 2008. |
| 2. | Khaliq, M.N., T.B.M.J. Ouarda, P. Gachon and L. Sushama, Temporal evolution of low-flow regimes in Canadian rivers, Water Resources Research, 44 (8), W08436, 2008. |
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| 4. | Salas, J. D., and T. Lee, Nonparametric simulation of single-site seasonal streamflows, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 15 (4), 284-296, 2010. |
| 5. | Srivastav, R. K., K. Srinivasan and K. P. Sudheer, Simulation-optimization framework for multi-season hybrid stochastic models, Journal of Hydrology, 404 (3-4), 209-225, 2011. |
| 6. | Langousis, A., and V. Kaleris, Theoretical framework to estimate spatial rainfall averages conditional on river discharges and point rainfall measurements from a single location: an application to western Greece, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1241-1263, 10.5194/hess-17-1241-2013, 2013. |
| 7. | Yusof, F., I. L. Kane and Z. Yusop, Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1311-1318, 2013. |
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| 9. | Ilich, N., An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85-98, 2014. |
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D. Zarris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evaluating sediment yield estimations from large-scale hydrologic systems using the rating curve concept, RMZ - Materials and Geoenvironment, 52 (1), 157–159, 2005.
A new approach in studying sediment yield from large hydrologic systems is presented that utilizes sediment rating curves in conjunction with reservoir sediment deposits downstream of the measurement site. It is shown that the rating curves, even with inadequate measurements, can provide a good basis for the computation of sediment yield.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/740/1/documents/2005RMZSedimentYield.pdf (195 KB)
See also: http://www.rmz-mg.com/contents.htm#Volume%2052,%20No.%201%20(August%202005)
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Nadal-Romero, E., J. F. Martínez-Murillo, M. Vanmaercke and J. Poesen, Scale-dependency of sediment yield from badland areas in Mediterranean environments, Progress in Physical Geography, 35 (3), 297-332, 2011. |
| 2. | Vanmaercke, M., J. Poesen, G. Verstraeten, J. de Vente and F. Ocakoglu, Sediment yield in Europe: Spatial patterns and scale dependency, Geomorphology, 13 (3-4), 142-161, 2011. |
| 3. | Zarris, D., M. Vlastara and D. Panagoulia, Sediment delivery assessment for a transboundary Mediterranean catchment: The example of Nestos River catchment, Water Resources Management, 25 (14), 3785-3803, 2011. |
K. Hadjibiros, A. Katsiri, A. Andreadakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Stamou, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and G.-F. Sargentis, Multi-criteria reservoir water management, Global Network for Environmental Science and Technology, 7 (3), 386–394, doi:10.30955/gnj.000394, 2005.
The Plastiras dam was constructed in the late 1950s mainly for electric power production, but it has also partially covered irrigation needs and water supply of the plain of Thessaly. Later, the site has been designated as an environment conservation zone because of ecological and landscape values, while tourist activities have been developed around the reservoir. Irrigation of agricultural land, hydroelectric production, drinking water supply, tourism, ecosystem water quality and scenery conservation have evidently been conflicting targets for many years. Good management would require a multi-criteria decision making. Historical data show that the irregular water release has resulted in a great annual fluctuation of the reservoir water level. This situation could be improved by a rational management of abstractions. Apparently, higher release leads simultaneously to more power production and to irrigation of a larger agricultural land. Moreover, demands for electricity and for irrigation are partially competing to each other, due to different optimal time schedules of releases. On the other hand, higher water release leads to lower water level in the reservoir and, therefore, it decreases the beauty of the scenery and deteriorates the trophic state of the lake. Such degradation affects the tourist potential as well as the quality of drinking water supplied by the reservoir. A multi-criteria approach uses different scenarios for the minimum permissible water level of the reservoir, if a constant annual release is applied. The minimum level concept is a simple and functional tool, because it is understood by people, easily certified and incorporated into regulations. The quantity of water that would be yearly available is a function of the minimum level allowed. The water quality depends upon the trophic state of the lake, mainly the concentration of chlorophyll-a, which determines the state of eutrophication and is estimated by water quality simulation models, taking into account pollutant loads such as nitrogen and phosphorus. The value of the landscape is much depending on the water level of the lake, because for lower levels a dead-zone appears between the surface of the water and the surrounding vegetation. When this dead zone is large, it seems lifeless and the lake appears partially empty. Quantification of this visual effect is not easy, but it is possible to establish a correspondence between the aesthetic assessment of the scenery and the minimum allowed reservoir level. Using results from hydrological analysis, water quality models and landscape evaluation, it seems possible to construct a multi-criteria table with different criteria described against alternatives and with a plot of three relative indices against the minimum level allowed. However, decision making has to take into account the fact that comparison or merging of indices corresponding to different criteria analysis encompasses a degree of arbitrariness. More objective decisions would be possible if different benefits and costs were measured in a common unit. Moreover, management will be sensitive to different social pressures.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/704/1/documents/2006GnestPlastiras.pdf (114 KB)
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See also: http://www.gnest.org/Journal/Vol7_No3.htm
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| 4. | Duc, D. X., L. D. Hai, and D. H. Tuan, Self-cleaning ability of pollutants containing nitrogen and phosphorus transformed into NH4+, NO2-, NO3-, PO43-, of SonLa hydropower reservoir, VNU Journal of Science: Earth and Environmental Sciences, 36(3), 12-24, doi:10.25073/2588-1094/vnuees.4510, 2020. |
A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, G.-F. Sargentis, and K. Hadjibiros, Resolving conflicting objectives in the management of the Plastiras Lake: can we quantify beauty?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9 (5), 507–515, doi:10.5194/hess-9-507-2005, 2005.
The possible water management of the Plastiras Lake, an artificial reservoir in central Greece, is examined. The lake and surrounding landscape are aesthetically degraded when the water level drops, and the requirement of maintaining a high quality of the scenery constitutes one of the several conflicting water uses, the other ones being irrigation, water supply, and power production. This environmental water use, and, to a lesser extent, the requirement for adequate water quality, results in constraining the annual release. Thus, the allowed fluctuation of reservoir stage is not defined by the physical and technical characteristics of the reservoir, but by a multi-criteria decision, the three criteria being maximising water release, ensuring adequate water quality, and maintaining a high quality of the natural landscape. Each of these criteria is analyzed separately. The results are then put together in a multicriterion tableau, which helps understand the implications of the possible alternative decisions. Several conflict resolution methods are overviewed, namely willingness to pay, hedonic prices, and multi-criteria decision analysis. All these methods attempt to quantify non-quantifiable qualities, and it is concluded that they don't necessarily offer any advantage over merely making a choice based on understanding.
Remarks:
Permission is granted to reproduce and modify this paper under the terms of the Creative Commons NonCommercial ShareAlike 2.5 license.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/683/1/documents/2005HESSPlastiras.pdf (404 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-507-2005
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 7. | Zhang, T., W. H. Zeng, S. R. Wang, and Z. K. Ni, Temporal and spatial changes of water quality and management strategies of Dianchi Lake in southwest China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 1493-1502, doi:10.5194/hess-18-1493-2014, 2014. |
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Z. W. Kundzewicz, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Editorial - The peer-review system: prospects and challenges, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (4), 577–590, 2005.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/661/1/documents/2005HSJEditorial.pdf (209 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.2005.50.4.577
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| 1. | Makropoulos, C., D. Butler and C. Maksimovic, Discussion of "Editorial - The peer-review system: prospects and challenges", Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51 (2), 350-351, 2006. |
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| 7. | Cudennec, C., and P. Hubert, The multi-objective role of HSJ in processing and disseminating hydrological knowledge - Discussion of "Editorial - Quantifying the impact of hydrological studies", Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53(2), 485-487, 2008. |
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| 9. | Khan, M. S., Exploring citations for conflict of interest detection in peer review system, International Journal of Computer Information Systems and Industrial Management Applications, 4, 283-299, 2012. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 2, Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 405–426, doi:10.1623/hysj.50.3.405.65028, 2005.
The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation and lag-one autocorrelation. In the first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and the state scaling behaviour were investigated. This second part of the study is devoted to joint distributional properties of hydrological processes. Specifically, it investigates the time dependence structure that may result from the ME principle and shows that the time scaling behaviour (or the Hurst phenomenon) may be obtained by this principle under the additional general condition that all time scales are of equal importance for the application of the ME principle. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series examined in the literature (one of which is used here as an example), validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/642/2/documents/2005HSJEntropyPart2.pdf (391 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.3.405.65028
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 8. | Wang, G.J., B.D. Su, Z.W. Kundzewicz and T. Jiang, Linear and non-linear scaling of the Yangtze River flow, Hydrological Processes, 22(10), 1532-1536, 2008. |
| 9. | Ozger, M., Comparison of fuzzy inference systems for streamflow prediction, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(2), 261-273, 2009. |
| 10. | Mackey, R., The sun's role regulating the earth's climate dynamics, Energy and Environment, 20 (1-2), 25-73, 2009. |
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| 19. | Luo, H., and V. P. Singh, Entropy theory for two-dimensional velocity distribution, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16 (4), 303-315, 2011. |
| 20. | Singh, V. P., Hydrologic synthesis using entropy theory: Review, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16 (5), 421-433, 2011. |
| 21. | Singh, V. P., and H. Luo, Entropy theory for distribution of one-dimensional velocity in open channels, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering ASCE, 16, 725-735, 2011. |
| 22. | Hamed, K. H., A probabilistic approach to calculating the reliability of over-year storage reservoirs with persistent Gaussian inflow, Journal of Hydrology, 448-449, 93-99, 2012. |
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| 25. | Yusof, F., I. L. Kane and Z. Yusop, Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1311-1318, 2013. |
| 26. | Hrachowitz, M., H.H.G. Savenije, G. Blöschl, J.J. McDonnell, M. Sivapalan, J.W. Pomeroy, B. Arheimer, T. Blume, M.P. Clark, U. Ehret, F. Fenicia, J.E. Freer, A. Gelfan, H.V. Gupta, D.A. Hughes, R.W. Hut, A. Montanari, S. Pande, D. Tetzlaff, P.A. Troch, S. Uhlenbrook, T. Wagener, H.C. Winsemius, R.A. Woods, E. Zehe, and C. Cudennec, A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) — a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198-1255, 2013. |
| 27. | Cui, H., and V. Singh, Suspended sediment concentration in open channels using Tsallis entropy, J. Hydrol. Eng., 19 (5), 966-977, 2014. |
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| 35. | Pechlivanidis, I.G., B. Jackson, H. McMillan and H.V. Gupta, Robust informational entropy-based descriptors of flow in catchment hydrology, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.983516, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Uncertainty, entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics, 1, Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (3), 381–404, doi:10.1623/hysj.50.3.381.65031, 2005.
The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/641/3/documents/2005HSJEntropyPart1.pdf (554 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.3.381.65031
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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A. N. Angelakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Tchobanoglous, Urban wastewater and stormwater technologies in ancient Greece, Water Research, 39 (1), 210–220, doi:10.1016/j.watres.2004.08.033, 2005.
The status of urban wastewater and stormwater systems in ancient Greece is reviewed, based on the results of archaeological studies of the 20th century. Emphasis is given to the construction, operation, and management of wastewater and stormwater systems during the Minoan period (2nd millennium BC). The achievements of this period in dealing with the hygienic and the functional requirements of palaces and cities, were so advanced that they can only be compared to modern urban water systems, developed in Europe and North America in the second half of the 19th century AD. The advanced Minoan technologies were exported to all parts of Greece in later periods of the Greek civilization, i.e. in Mycenaean, Archaic, Classical, and Hellenistic periods.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/631/1/documents/2005WRAncientTech.pdf (1022 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2004.08.033
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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E. Rozos, A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Calibration of a semi-distributed model for conjunctive simulation of surface and groundwater flows, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (5), 819–842, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.5.819.55130, 2004.
A hydrological simulation model was developed for conjunctive representation of surface and groundwater processes. It comprises a conceptual soil moisture accounting module, based on an enhanced version of the Thornthwaite model for the soil moisture reservoir, a Darcian multi-cell groundwater flow module and a module for partitioning water abstractions among water resources. The resulting integrated scheme is highly flexible in the choice of time (i.e. monthly to daily) and space scales (catchment scale, aquifer scale). Model calibration involved successive phases of manual and automatic sessions. For the latter, an innovative optimization method called evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm is devised. The objective function involves weighted goodness-of-fit criteria for multiple variables with different observation periods, as well as penalty terms for restricting unrealistic water storage trends and deviations from observed intermittency of spring flows. Checks of the unmeasured catchment responses through manually changing parameter bounds guided choosing final parameter sets. The model is applied to the particularly complex Boeoticos Kephisos basin, Greece, where it accurately reproduced the main basin response, i.e. the runoff at its outlet, and also other important components. Emphasis is put on the principle of parsimony which resulted in a computationally effective modelling. This is crucial since the model is to be integrated within a stochastic simulation framework.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/630/1/documents/2004HSJCalibrSemiDistrModel.pdf (445 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.5.819.55130
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 2, Empirical investigation of long rainfall records, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 591–610, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.591.54424, 2004.
In the first part of this study, theoretical analyses showed that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent choice. Based on these theoretical analyses, an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100-154 years of data. This verifies the theoretical results. In addition, it shows that the shape parameter of the EV2 distribution is constant for all examined geographical zones (Europe and North America), with value κ = 0.15. This simplifies the fitting and the general mathematical handling of the distribution, which become as simple as those of the Gumbel distribution.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/611/1/documents/2004HSJXtremRainPart2.pdf (743 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall, 1, Theoretical investigation, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49 (4), 575–590, doi:10.1623/hysj.49.4.575.54430, 2004.
The Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model for quantifying risk associated with extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution. These arguments are examined thoroughly in this work and are put into question. Specifically, theoretical analyses show that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and its application may misjudge the risk as it underestimates seriously the largest extreme rainfall amounts. Besides, it is shown that hydrological records of typical length (some decades) may display a distorted picture of the actual distribution suggesting that the Gumbel distribution is an appropriate model for rainfall extremes while it is not. In addition, it is shown that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent alternative. Based on the theoretical analysis, in the second part of this study an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100-154 years of data. This verifies the inappropriateness of the Gumbel distribution and the appropriateness of EV2 distribution for rainfall extremes.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/610/1/documents/2004HSJXtremRainPart1.pdf (266 KB)
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| 81. | Shou, K.-J., and C.-M. Yang, Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility under climate change conditions - A study on the Chingshui River Watershed of Taiwan, Engineering Geology, 192, 46-62, 2015. |
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K Mantoudi, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water basin balance model using a geographical information system, Technica Chronica, 24 (1-3), 43–52, 2004.
Based on a Geographical Information System (GIS), a hydrological model was developed that calculates the water balance in a hydrological basin. The system uses hydrometeorological data as input and produces spatial data of runoff, evaportranspiration and water storage to various ground levels, for output. The model development is based on the object oriented programming language that is incorporated in the GIS environment. The model was applied to Acheloos River basin, upstream of the Kremasta Dam. The basin was divided into cells of 4 square kilometers each and the inputs and outputs of the model were grids with the same cell size. Measured river discharges were used for the calibration and verification of the model.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/608/1/documents/2004TechChronBalance.pdf (568 KB)
See also: http://opac.tee.gr/cgi-bin-EL/egwcgi/317204/showfull.egw/1+0+4+full
K. Mazi, A. D. Koussis, P. J. Restrepo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A groundwater-based, objective-heuristic parameter optimisation method for a precipitation-runoff model and its application to a semi-arid basin, Journal of Hydrology, 290, 243–258, 2004.
A hydrologic model calibration methodology that is based on groundwater data is developed and implemented using the USGS precipitation-runoff modelling system (PRMS) and the modular modelling system (MMS), which performs automatic calibration of parameters. The developed methodology was tested in the Akrotiri basin, Cyprus. The necessity for the ground-water-based model calibration, rather than a typical runoff-based one, arose from the very intermittent character of the runoff in the Akrotiri basin, a case often met in semiarid regions. Introducing a datum and converting groundwater storage to head made the observable ground- water level the calibration indicator. The modelling of the Akrotiri basin leads us to conclude that groundwater level is a useful indicator for hydrological model calibration that can be potentially used in other similar situations in the absence of river flow measurements. However, the option of an automatic calibration of the complex hydrologic model PRMS by MMS did not ensure a good outcome. On the other hand, automatic optimisation, combined with heuristic expert intervention, enabled achievement of good calibration and constitutes a valuable means for saving effort and improving modelling performance. To this end, results must be scrutinised, melding the viewpoint of physical sense with mathematical efficiency criteria. Thus optimised, PRMS achieved a low simulation error, good reproduction of the historic trend of the aquifer water level evolution and reasonable physical behaviour (good hydrologic balance, aquifer did not empty, good estimation of mean natural recharge rate).
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.006
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 9. | Birol, E., P. Koundouri and Y. Kountouris, Evaluating farmers' preferences for wastewater: Quantity and quality aspects, International Journal of Water, 4(1-2), 69-86, 2008. |
| 10. | Tsanis. I.K., and M. G. Apostolaki, Estimating Groundwater Withdrawal in Poorly Gauged Agricultural Basins, Water Resources Management, 23(6), 1097-1123, 2009. |
| 11. | Wang, R., and X. Lu, Quantitative estimation models and their application of ecological water use at a basin scale, Water Resources Management, 23(7), 1351-1365, 2009. |
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| 15. | Rapti-Caputo, D., Influence of climatic changes and human activities on the salinization process of coastal aquifer systems, Italian Journal of Agronomy, 3 Suppl., 67-79, 2010. |
| 16. | Ghandhari, A., and S. M. R. Alavi Moghaddam, Water balance principles: A review of studies on five watersheds in Iran, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 4 (5), 465-479, 2011. |
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| 18. | Koussis, A. D., K. Mazi and G. Destouni, Analytical single-potential, sharp-interface solutions for regional seawater intrusion in sloping unconfined coastal aquifers, with pumping and recharge, Journal of Hydrology, 416-417, 1-11, 2012. |
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| 21. | Sadegh, M., and J. A. Vrugt, Approximate Bayesian Computation in hydrologic modeling: equifinality of formal and informal approaches, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10, 4739-4797, 10.5194/hessd-10-4739-2013, 2013. |
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| 23. | Mazi, K., A. D. Koussis and G. Destouni, Intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers: resilience to seawater intrusion and proximity to critical thresholds, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1663-1677, 2014. |
| 24. | Li, G., X. Li and J. Qu, Investigating the interaction between Crescent Spring and groundwater in a Chinese dune-lake environment using hydraulic gradient and isotope analysis methods, Holocene, 24 (7), 798-804, 2014. |
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| 26. | Koussis, A.D., K. Mazi, F. Riou and G. Destouni, A correction for Dupuit-Forchheimer interface flow models of seawater intrusion in unconfined coastal aquifers, Journal of Hydrology, 525, 277-285, 2015. |
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Xenos, Minimizing water cost in the water resource management of Athens, Urban Water Journal, 1 (1), 3–15, doi:10.1080/15730620410001732099, 2004.
The minimisation of the water cost is examined in the framework of an integrated water resources planning and management model, implemented within the decision support system for the management of the Athens water supply system. The mathematical framework employs a simulation-optimisation scheme, where simulation is applied to faithfully represent the system operation, whereas optimisation is applied to derive the optimal management policy, which simultaneously minimises the risk and cost of decision-making. Real economic criteria in addition with virtual costs are appropriately assigned to preserve the physical constraints and water use priorities, ensuring also the lowest-cost transportation of water from the sources to the consumption. The proposed model is tested in the hydrosystem of Athens, in order to minimise the expected operational cost for several system configurations.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15730620410001732099
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #SIRRIMED (Sustainable use of irrigation water in the Mediterranean Region), D4.2 and D5.2 Report on Models to be Implemented in the District Information Systems (DIS) and Watershed Information Systems (WIS), 95 pp., Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 2011. |
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| 4. | Salazar, J. Z., P. M. Reed, J. D. Herman, M. Giuliani, and A. Castelletti, A diagnostic assessment of evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective surface water reservoir control, Advances in Water Resources, 92, 172-185, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.04.006, 2016. |
| 5. | Stamou, A. T., and P. Rutschmann, Pareto optimization of water resources using the nexus approach, Water Resources Management, 32(15), 5053-5065, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2127-x, 2018. |
| 6. | Stamou, A.-T., and P. Rutschmann, Optimization of water use based on the water-energy-food nexus concept: Application to the long-term development scenario of the Upper Blue Nile River, Water Utility Journal, 25, 1-13, 2020. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, and A. Christofides, A decision support system for the management of the water resource system of Athens, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 28 (14-15), 599–609, doi:10.1016/S1474-7065(03)00106-2, 2003.
The main components of a decision support system (DSS) developed to support the management of the water resource system of Athens are presented. The DSS includes information systems that perform data acquisition, management and visualisation, and models that perform simulation and optimisation of the hydrosystem. The models, which are the focus of the present work, are organised into two main modules. The first one is a stochastic hydrological simulator, which, based on the analysis of historical hydrological data, generates simulations and forecasts of the hydrosystem inputs. The second one allows the detailed study of the hydrosystem under alternative management policies implementing the parameterisation-simulation-optimisation methodology. The mathematical framework of this new methodology performs the allocation of the water resources to the different system components, keeping the number of control variables small and thus reducing the computational effort, even for a complex hydrosystem like the one under study. Multiple, competitive targets and constraints with different priorities can be set, which are concerned among others, with the system reliability and risk, the overall average operational cost and the overall guaranteed yield of the system. The DSS is in the final stage of its development and its results, some of which are summarised in the paper, have been utilised to support the new masterplan of the hydrosystem management.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(03)00106-2
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 37. | Stamou, A.-T., and P. Rutschmann, Optimization of water use based on the water-energy-food nexus concept: Application to the long-term development scenario of the Upper Blue Nile River, Water Utility Journal, 25, 1-13, 2020. |
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Most common methods used in optimal control of reservoir systems require a large number of control variables, which are typically the sequences of releases from all reservoirs and all time steps of the control period. In contrast, the less widespread parameterization-simulation-optimization (PSO) method is a low-dimensional method. It uses a handful of control variables, which are parameters of a simple rule that is valid through the entire control period and determines the releases from different reservoirs at each time step. The parameterization of the rule is linked to simulation of the reservoir system, which enables the calculation of a performance measure of the system for given parameter values, and nonlinear optimization, which enables determination of the optimal parameter values. To evaluate the PSO method and, particularly, to investigate whether the radical reduction of the number of control variables might lead to inferior solutions or not, we compare it to two alternative methods. These methods, namely the high-dimensional perfect foresight method and the simplified 'equivalent reservoir' method that merges the reservoir system into a single hypothetical reservoir, determine 'benchmark' performance measures for the comparison. The comparison is done both theoretically and by investigation of the results of the PSO against the benchmark methods in a large variety of test problems. 41 test problems for a hypothetical system of two reservoirs are constructed and solved for comparison. These refer to different objectives (maximization of reliable yield, minimization of cost, maximization of energy production), water uses (irrigation, water supply, energy production), characteristics of the reservoir system and hydrological scenarios. The investigation shows that the PSO method yields solutions that are not inferior to those of the benchmark methods and, simultaneously, it has several theoretical, computational and practical advantages.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/562/1/documents/2003WRRPSOEvaluation.pdf (467 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002148
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, and H. S. Wheater, Multivariate rainfall disaggregation at a fine timescale, Water Resources Research, 39 (7), 1173, doi:10.1029/2002WR001600, 2003.
A methodology for spatial-temporal disaggregation of rainfall is proposed. The methodology involves the combination of several univariate and multivariate rainfall models operating at different time scales, in a disaggregation framework that can appropriately modify outputs of finer time scale models so as to become consistent with given coarser time scale series. Potential hydrologic applications include enhancement of historical data series and generation of simulated data series. Specifically, the methodology can be applied to derive spatially consistent hourly rainfall series in raingages where only daily data are available. In addition, in a simulation framework, the methodology provides a way to take simulations of multivariate daily rainfall (incorporating spatial and temporal non-stationarity) and generate multivariate fields at fine temporal resolution. The methodology is tested via a case study dealing with the disaggregation of daily historical data of five raingages into hourly series. Comparisons show that the methodology results in good preservation of important properties of the hourly rainfall process such as marginal moments, temporal and spatial correlations, and proportions and lengths of dry intervals, and in addition, a good reproduction of the actual hyetographs.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001600
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, doi:10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481, 2003.
The intensive research of the recent years on climate change has led to the strong conclusion that climate has always, through the planet history, changed irregularly on all time scales. Climate changes are closely related to the Hurst phenomenon, which has been detected in many long hydroclimatic time series and is stochastically equivalent with a simple scaling behaviour of climate variability over timescale. The climate variability, anthropogenic or natural, increases the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes. It is shown that hydrologic statistics, the branch of hydrology that deals with uncertainty, in its current state is not consistent with the varying character of climate. Typical statistics used in hydrology such as means, variances, cross- and auto-correlations and Hurst coefficients, and the variability thereof, are revisited under the hypothesis of a varying climate following a simple scaling law, and new estimators are studied which in many cases differ dramatically from the classic ones. The new statistical framework is applied to real-world examples for typical tasks such as estimation and hypothesis testing where again the results depart significantly from those of the classic statistics.
Remarks:
Alternative names for Hurst phenomenon are Hurst effect, Joseph effect, Long term persistence, Long range dependence, Scaling behaviour (in time), Multi-scale fluctuation, Hurst-Kolmogorov pragmaticity, etc.
Erratum: The runoff of the Boeotikos Kephisos catchment (Fig. 3, p. 7, and p. 21, first full paragraph) should be corrected to volume units, i.e. cubic hectometers (instead of millimeters).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/537/1/documents/2003HSJHurst.pdf (409 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and G. Karavokiros, A decision support tool for the management of multi-reservoir systems, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38 (4), 945–958, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb05536.x, 2002.
A decision support tool is developed for the management of water resources, focusing on multipurpose reservoir systems. This software tool has been designed in such a way that it can be suitable to hydrosystems with multiple water uses and operating goals, calculating complex multi-reservoir systems as a whole. The mathematical framework is based on the parameterization-simulation-optimization scheme. The main idea consists of a parametric formulation of the operating rules for reservoirs and other projects (i.e. hydropower plants). This methodology enables the radical decrease of the number of decision variables, making feasible the location of the optimal management policy, which maximizes the system yield and the overall operational benefit and minimizes the risk for the management decisions. The program was developed using advanced software engineering techniques. It is adaptable in a wide range of water resources systems and its purpose is to support water and power supply companies and related authorities. It was already applied to two of the most complicated hydrosystems of Greece, the first time as a planning tool and the second time as a management tool.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb05536.x
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47 (4), 573–595, doi:10.1080/02626660209492961, 2002.
The Hurst phenomenon, which characterises hydrological and other geophysical time series, is formulated and studied in an easy manner in terms of the variance and autocorrelation of a stochastic process on multiple temporal scales. In addition, a simple explanation of the Hurst phenomenon based on the fluctuation of a hydrologic process upon different temporal scales is presented. The stochastic process that was devised to represent the Hurst phenomenon, i.e. the fractional Gaussian noise, is also studied on the same grounds. Based on its studied properties, three simple and fast methods to generate fractional Gaussian noise or good approximations of it are proposed.
Remarks:
Alternative names for Hurst phenomenon are Hurst effect, Joseph effect, Long term persistence, Long range dependence, Scaling behaviour (in time), Multi-scale fluctuation, Hurst-Kolmogorov pragmaticity, etc.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/511/1/documents/2002HSJHurst.pdf (431 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626660209492961
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Two stochastic models of the rainfall process, belonging to different categories, are compared in terms of how well they reproduce certain hyetograph characteristics. The first is the scaling model of storm hyetograph, which belongs to the category of storm-based models. The second is the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model, the most widespread among the category of point process models. The scaling model is further developed introducing one more parameter to better fit historical data. The Bartlett-Lewis model is theoretically studied to extract mathematical relationships for the intra-storm structure. The intercomparison is based on the storm hyetographs of a data set from Greece and another one from USA. The different storms are identified in each data set and classified according to their duration. Both models are fitted using the characteristics of storms. The comparison shows that the scaling model of storm hyetograph agrees well with the structure of historical hyetographs whereas the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model exhibits some discrepancies in either its original version or its random parameter version. However, it is shown that the performance of the Bartlett-Lewis model is significantly improved, and becomes comparable to that of the scaling model, by introducing a power-law dependence of its cell related parameters (duration and rate of arrivals) on the storm duration.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00441-3
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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A disaggregation methodology for the generation of hourly data that aggregate up to given daily totals is developed. This combines a rainfall simulation model based upon the Bartlett-Lewis process with proven techniques developed for the purpose of adjusting the finer scale (hourly) values so as to obtain the required coarser scale (daily) values. The methodology directly answers the question of the possible extension of the short hourly time-series with the use of longer-term daily data at the same point and provides the theoretical basis for an operational use of this methodology when no hourly data are available. The algorithm has been validated in full test mode in the case where hourly data are available. Specifically, two case studies (from the UK and US) are examined whose results indicate a good performance of the methodology in preserving the most important statistical properties of the rainfall process.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00363-8
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Coupling stochastic models of different time scales, Water Resources Research, 37 (2), 379–391, doi:10.1029/2000WR900200, 2001.
A methodology is proposed for coupling stochastic models of hydrologic processes applying to different timescales so that time series generated by the different models be consistent. Given two multivariate time series, generated by two separate (unrelated) stochastic models of the same hydrologic process, each applying to a different timescale, a transformation is developed (referred to as a coupling transformation) that appropriately modifies the time series of the lower-level (finer) timescale so that this series becomes consistent with the time series of the higher-level (coarser) timescale without affecting the second-order stochastic structure of the former and also establishes appropriate correlations between the two time series. The coupling transformation is based on a developed generalized mathematical proposition, which ensures preservation of marginal and joint second-order statistics and of linear relationships between lower- and higher-level processes. Several specific forms of the coupling transformation are studied, from the simplest single variate to the full multivariate. In addition, techniques for evaluating parameters of the coupling transformation based on second-order moments of the lower-level process are studied. Furthermore, two methods are proposed to enable preservation of the skewness of the processes, in addition to that of second-order statistics. The overall methodology can be applied to problems involving disaggregation of annual to seasonal and seasonal to subseasonal timescales, as well as problems involving finer timescales (e.g. daily - hourly), with the only requirement that a specific stochastic model is available for each involved time scale. The performance of the methodology is demonstrated by means of a detailed numerical example.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/17/1/documents/2000WR900200.pdf (276 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900200
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Sharma, A., and R. O'Neill, A nonparametric approach for representing interannual dependence in monthly streamflow sequences, Water Resources Research, 38(7), art. no. 1100, 2002. |
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| 11. | Prairie, J.R., and B. Rajagopalan, A basin wide stochastic salinity model, Journal of Hydrology, 344(1-2), 43-54, 2007. |
| 12. | Wang, Q.J., and R.J. Nathan, A method for coupling daily and monthly time scales in stochastic generation of rainfall series, Journal of Hydrology, 346(3-4), 122-130, 2007. |
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| 22. | #Zagona, E., K. Nowak, R. Balaji, C. Jerla, and J. Prairie, Riverware’s integrated modeling and analysis tools for long-term planning under uncertainty, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference on Sedimentation and Hydrologic Modeling, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, 2010. |
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| 32. | Johnson, F., and A. Sharma, A nesting model for bias correction of variability at multiple time scales in general circulation model precipitation simulations, Water Resour. Res., doi: 10.1029/2011WR010464, 2012. |
| 33. | Chakraborty, S., D. M. Denis and A. Sherring, Development of time series autoregressive model for prediction of rainfall and runoff in Kelo Watershed Chhattisgarh, International Journal of Advances in Engineering Science and Technology, 2 (2), 153-162, 2013. |
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G. Baloutsos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Economou, and P. Kalliris, Investigation of the hydrologic response of the Xerias torrent basin to the rainstorm of January 1997 using the SCS method, Geotechnical Scientific Issues, 11 (1), 77–90, 2000.
On January 11-13, 1997, an unusual rainstorm hit the Xerias torrent watershed and the wider area of Corinth, Greece. The storm caused a devastating flood in the town of Corinth with severe damage and human losses. The damage was attributed to heavy rainfall and runoff and also to human interference in the channel of the torrent and in the floodplain. Quantification of the hydrologic response of the watershed and determination of suitable measures for mitigating flood impacts from similar events in the future was a difficult task due to lack of hydrometeorological data. This problem is faced here by investigating the hydrologic response of the watershed using the SCS method. The analysis has shown that the rainfall in the watershed ranged from 123-358 mm (weighted average 201 mm); its return period was of the order of 1000 years for the central part of the watershed and for 24-hour duration, but much lower for shorter durations. The peak discharge in the outlet of the watershed exceeded 600 m3/s (return period of the order of 100 years) and the flood volume was more than 55% of rainfall. Considering the physical and hydrological characteristics of the watershed and the conclusions drawn, measures are proposed and discussed for mitigating the flood impacts from similar events in the future.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/21/1/documents/2000Korinthos.pdf (1075 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Fasoula, A., M. Sapountzis and A. Psilovikos, Research of the flooding phenomenon at “Krafsidonas” torrent (Volos, Thessaly, Greece) after the rainstorm of 9th October 2006, Proceedings of the EYE-EEDYP Conference “Integrated Water Resource Management in Climate Change Conditions” (eds. A. Liakopoulos, V. Kanakoudis, E. Anastasiadou-Partheniou and V. Tsihrintzis), Volos, Greece, 171-178, 2009. |
| 2. | #Hatzopoulos, J. N., A. Santorinaiou and D. Gitakou, Coordination of public policies for flood protection using remote sensing and GIS technologies for coastal urban landscapes at water territories, American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Annual Conference 2010: Opportunities for Emerging Geospatial Technologies, 1, 270-277, 2010. |
| 3. | #Diakakis M, E. Andreadakis and G. Fountoulis, Flash flood event of Potamoula, Greece: Hydrology, geomorphic effects and damage characteristics, Advances in the Research of Aquatic Environment (eds. N. Lambrakis, G. Stournaras, K. Katsanou), Springer, Berlin, Doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-19902-8_18, 163-170, 2011. |
| 4. | Karymbalis, E., P. Katsafados, C. Chalkias and K. Gaki-Papanastassiou, An integrated study for the evaluation of natural and anthropogenic causes of flooding in small catchments based on geomorphological and meteorological data and modeling techniques: The case of the Xerias torrent (Corinth, Greece), Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, 56 (SUPPL. 1), 045-067, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Baloutsos, Analysis of a long record of annual maximum rainfall in Athens, Greece, and design rainfall inferences, Natural Hazards, 22 (1), 29–48, doi:10.1023/A:1008001312219, 2000.
An annual series of maximum daily rainfall extending through 1860-1995, i.e., 136 years, was extracted from the archives of a meteorological station in Athens. This is the longest rainfall record available in Greece and its analysis is required for the prediction of intense rainfall in Athens, where currently major flood protection works are under way. Moreover, the statistical analysis of this long record can be useful for investigating more generalised issues regarding the adequacy of extreme value distributions for extreme rainfall analysis and the effect of sample size on design rainfall inferences. Statistical exploration and tests based on this long record indicate no statistically significant climatic changes in extreme rainfall during the last 136 years. Furthermore, statistical analysis shows that the conventionally employed Extreme Value Type I (EV1 or Gumbel) distribution is inappropriate for the examined record (especially in its upper tail), whereas this distribution would seem as an appropriate model if fewer years of measurements were available (i.e., part of this sample were used). On the contrary, the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution appears to be suitable for the examined series and its predictions for large return periods agree with the probable maximum precipitation estimated by the statistical (Hershfield's) method, when the latter is considered from a probabilistic point of view. Thus, the results of the analysis of this record agree with a recently (and internationally) expressed scepticism about the EV1 distribution which tends to underestimate the largest extreme rainfall amounts. It is demonstrated that the underestimation is quite substantial (e.g. 1:2) for large return periods and this fact must be considered as a warning against the widespread use of the EV1 distribution for rainfall extremes.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008001312219
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Broken line smoothing: A simple method for interpolating and smoothing data series, Environmental Modelling and Software, 15 (2), 139–149, 2000.
A technique is proposed for smoothing a broken line fit, with known break points, to observational data. It will be referred to as "broken line smoothing". The smoothness term is defined by means of the angles formed by the consecutive segments of the broken line, and is given an adjustable weight. The roughness of the resulting broken line can then be controlled by appropriately tuning the weight of smoothness term and the number of straight-line segments. The broken line smoothing can be used for data analysis in several applications as an alternative to other methods such as locally weighted regression and smoothing splines. The mathematical background and details of the method as well as practical aspects of its application are presented and discussed. Also, several examples using both synthesised and real world (hydrological and climatological) data are presented to explore and illustrate the methodology.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(99)00026-2
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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A generalized framework for single-variate and multivariate simulation and forecasting problems in stochastic hydrology is proposed. It is appropriate for short-term or long-term memory processes and preserves the Hurst coefficient even in multivariate processes with a different Hurst coefficient in each location. Simultaneously, it explicitly preserves the coefficients of skewness of the processes. The proposed framework incorporates short memory (autoregressive - moving average) and long memory (fractional Gaussian noise) models, considering them as special instances of a parametrically defined generalized autocovariance function, more comprehensive than those used in these classes of models. The generalized autocovariance function is then implemented in a generalized moving average generating scheme that yields a new time symmetric (backward-forward) representation, whose advantages are studied. Fast algorithms for computation of internal parameters of the generating scheme are developed, appropriate for problems including even thousands of such parameters. The proposed generating scheme is also adapted through a generalized methodology to perform in forecast mode, in addition to simulation mode. Finally, a specific form of the model for problems where the autocorrelation function can be defined only for a certain finite number of lags is also studied. Several illustrations are included to clarify the features and the performance of the components of the proposed framework.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/18/1/documents/2000WR900044.pdf (398 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900044
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A comprehensive system for the exploration and analysis of hydrological data, Water Resources Management, 13, 269–302, 1999.
A new approach is developed for the automatic (computer based) exploration and analysis of hydrological data, particularly focused on the identification of shifting relationships among hydrological variables. The methodology developed is applicable to many hydrological problems, such as identification of multiple stage-discharge relationships in a river section, data homogeneity analysis, analysis of temporal consistency of hydrological data, detection of outliers, and determination of shifts and trends in hydrological time series. Such problems are examined here as particular applications of the single methodology developed. A general mathematical representation of the data exploration problem is initially proposed, based on set theory considerations. Several statistical tests, as well as auxiliary information of physical conditions, are systematically combined to form an objective function to be optimised. This objective function represents the performance of a solution (where a solution is a specific partitioning of a data set into subperiods), in a manner, that holds in each subperiod a single relationship among data values. It is shown that an exhaustive search of all candidate solutions is intractable. Therefore, a heuristic algorithm is proposed, which emulates the exploratory data analysis of the human expert. This algorithm encodes a number of search strategies in a pattern directed computer program and results in an automatic determination of a satisfactory solution.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008197511426
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 8. | McMillan, H., A. Montanari, C. Cudennec, H. Savenjie, H. Kreibich, T. Krüger, J. Liu, A. Meija, A. van Loon, H. Aksoy, G. Di Baldassarre, Y. Huang, D. Mazvimavi, M. Rogger, S. Bellie, T. Bibikova, A. Castellarin, Y. Chen, D. Finger, A. Gelfan, D. Hannah, A. Hoekstra, H. Li, S. Maskey, T. Mathevet, A. Mijic, A. Pedrozo Acuña, M. J. Polo, V. Rosales, P. Smith, A. Viglione, V. Srinivasan, E. Toth, R. van Nooyen, and J. Xia, Panta Rhei 2013-2015: Global perspectives on hydrology, society and change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308, 2016. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic view of Hershfield's method for estimating probable maximum precipitation, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1313–1322, doi:10.1029/1999WR900002, 1999.
A simple alternative formulation of Hershfield's statistical method for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is proposed. Specifically, it is shown that the published Hershfield data do not support the hypothesis that there exists a PMP as a physical upper limit, and therefore a purely probabilistic treatment of the data is more consistent. In addition, using the same data set, it is shown that Hershfield's estimate of PMP may be obtained using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with shape parameter given as a specified linear function of the average value of annual maximum precipitation series and for return period of about 60,000 years. This formulation substitutes completely the standard empirical nomograph that is used for the application of the method. The application of the method can be improved when long series of local rainfall data are available that support an accurate estimation of the shape parameter of the GEV distribution.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900002
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Optimal decomposition of covariance matrices for multivariate stochastic models in hydrology, Water Resources Research, 35 (4), 1219–1229, doi:10.1029/1998WR900093, 1999.
A new method is proposed for decomposing covariance matrices that appear in the parameter estimation phase of all multivariate stochastic models in hydrology. This method applies not only to positive definite covariance matrices (as do the typical methods of the literature) but to indefinite matrices, too, that often appear in stochastic hydrology. It is also appropriate for preserving the skewness coefficients of the model variables as it accounts for the resulting coefficients of skewness of the auxiliary (noise) variables used by the stochastic model, given that the latter coefficients are controlled by the decomposed matrix. The method is formulated in an optimization framework with the objective function being composed of three components aiming at (1) complete preservation of the variances of variables, (2) optimal approximation of the covariances of variables, in the case that complete preservation is not feasible due to inconsistent (i.e., not positive definite) structure of the covariance matrix, and (3) preservation of the skewness coefficients of the model variables by keeping the skewness of the auxiliary variables as low as possible. Analytical expressions of the derivatives of this objective function are derived, which allow the development of an effective nonlinear optimization algorithm using the steepest descent or the conjugate gradient methods. The method is illustrated and explored through a real world application, which indicates a very satisfactory performance of the method.
Remarks:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998WR900093
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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D. Koutsoyiannis, D. Kozonis, and A. Manetas, A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships, Journal of Hydrology, 206 (1-2), 118–135, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00097-3, 1998.
A general formula for the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (idf) relationship, consistent with the theoretical probabilistic foundation of the analysis of rainfall maxima is proposed. Specific forms of this formula are explicitly derived from the underlying probability distribution function of maximum intensities. Several appropriate distribution functions are studied for that purpose. Simple analytical approximations of the most common distribution functions are presented, which are incorporated in, and allow mathematically convenient expressions of idf relationships. Also, two methods for a reliable parameter estimation of idf relationships are proposed. The proposed formulation of idf relationships constitutes an efficient parameterisation, facilitating the description of the geographical variability and regionalisation of idf curves. Moreover, it allows incorporating data from non-recording stations, thus remedying the problem of establishing idf curves in places with a sparse network of rain-recording stations, using data of the denser network of non-recording stations. Case studies, based on data of a significant part of Greece, briefly presented in the paper, clarify the methodology for the construction and regionalisation of the idf relationship.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/40/1/documents/1998JHidf.pdf (1406 KB)
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I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A parametric rule for planning and management of multiple reservoir systems, Water Resources Research, 33 (9), 2165–2177, doi:10.1029/97WR01034, 1997.
A parametric rule for multireservoir system operation is formulated and tested. It is a generalization of the well-known space rule to simultaneously account for various system operating goals in addition to the standard goal of avoiding unnecessary spills, including: avoidance of leakage losses, avoidance of conveyance problems, taking into account the impacts of the reservoir system topology, and assuring satisfaction of secondary uses. Theoretical values of the rule's parameters for each one of these isolated goals are derived. In practice, parameters are evaluated to optimize one or more objective functions selected by the user. The rule is embedded in a simulation model so that optimization requires repeated simulations of the system operation with specific values of the parameters each time. The rule is tested on the case of the multireservoir water supply system of the city of Athens, Greece, which is driven by all of the operating goals listed above. Two problems at the system design level are tackled. First, the total release from the system is maximized for a selected level of failure probability. Second, the annual operating cost is minimized for given levels of water demand and failure probability. A detailed simulation model is used in the case study. Sensitivity analysis to the rule's parameters revealed a subset of insensitive parameters that allowed for rule simplification. Finally, the rule is validated through comparison with a number of heuristic rules also applied to the test case.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/41/1/documents/1997WR01034.pdf (452 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/97WR01034
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Manetas, Simple disaggregation by accurate adjusting procedures, Water Resources Research, 32 (7), 2105–2117, doi:10.1029/96WR00488, 1996.
A multivariate disaggregation method is developed for stochastic simulation of hydrologic series. The method is based on three simple ideas that have been proven effective. First, it starts using directly a typical PAR(1) model and keeps its formalism and parameter set, which is the most parsimonious among linear stochastic models. This model is run for the lower-level variables without any reference to the known higher-level variables. Second, it uses accurate adjusting procedures to allocate the error in the additive property, i.e., the departure of the sum of lower-level variables within a period from the corresponding higher-level variable. They are accurate in the sense that they preserve explicitly certain statistics or even the complete distribution of lower-level variables. Three such procedures have been developed and studied in this paper, both theoretically and empirically. Third, it uses repetitive sampling in order to improve the approximations of statistics that are not explicitly preserved by the adjusting procedures. The model, owing to the wide range of probability distributions it can handle (from bell-shaped to J-shaped) and to its multivariate framework, is useful for a plethora of hydrologic applications such as disaggregation of annual rainfall or runoff into monthly or weekly amounts, and disaggregation of event rainfall depths into partial amounts of hourly or even less duration. Such real world hydrologic applications have been explored in this study to test the model performance, which has proven very satisfactory.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96WR00488
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Pachakis, Deterministic chaos versus stochasticity in analysis and modeling of point rainfall series, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 101 (D21), 26441–26451, doi:10.1029/96JD01389, 1996.
The differences between historic rainfall data and synthetic data obtained by a stochastic rainfall model are investigated using nonlinear analysis tools devised for description and characterization of chaotic behavior. To achieve this goal, a 6-year point rainfall record with a time resolution of one quarter of hour is studied. A stochastic model capable of preserving important properties of the rainfall process, such as intermittency, seasonality and scaling behavior, is fitted to this data set and a synthetic time series of equal length is generated. For both data sets the correlation dimension is calculated for various embedding dimensions by the time delay embedding method. However, the applicability of this method in estimating dimensions proves limited due to the domination of voids (dry periods) in a rainfall record at a fine time resolution. Thus, in addition to time delay embedding, a Cantorian dust analogue method is developed and used to estimate dimensions. Results of both methods show that there is no substantial difference in behavior between the synthetic and the historic records. Moreover, no evidence of low-dimensional determinism is detected in the sets examined.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96JD01389
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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The influence of the prevailing weather situation on the temporal evolution and geographical distribution of intense rainfall is studied, as a potential tool to improve rainfall prediction. A classification scheme of the atmospheric circulation over the east Mediterranean territory is used for the analysis. The study area is the Sterea Hellas region (central Greece) with an area of about 25,000 km2. Daily data from 71 rain gages and hourly data from three rain recorders over a 20 year period are used. From these data sets, the intense rainfall events were extracted and analyzed. Several empirical and statistical methods (also including the available tools of a Geographical Information System) are used for the analysis and comparison of rainfall distribution both in time and in space. The analysis shows that the contribution of the concept of weather types to the quantitative point rainfall prediction in short timescale is small, and only the estimation of the probability of occurrence of an intense event is feasible. On the contrary, the relation between the spatial distribution of rainfall and the atmospheric circulation patterns is significant and may be used for improving the forecasting of the geographical distribution of rainfall.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96JD01377
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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A simple technique for short scale rainfall disaggregation is developed and studied both theoretically and empirically. This technique can be combined with a variety of rainfall models. The simplest implementation of the technique for a Markovian structure at a discrete time with only three parameters is studied in detail as an easy and convenient engineering tool for design storm and flood studies. Combining the disaggregation technique with a succession of simple hydrologic models, i.e., a production function, a unit hydrograph and a flood routing model we form a stochastic approach for design storm and flood synthesis. Similar to common engineering methods the proposed method starts with the selection of certain characteristics of the design storm (i.e., its duration and total depth that corresponds to a given return period). Subsequently, the method generates a series of probable time distributions by disaggregating the given total depth into incremental depths. Then the series of hyetographs is routed through the hydrological models and the result is the conditional probability distribution function of the outflow peak of the hydraulic construction studied, given the duration and total storm depth. From this distribution we can adopt the design discharge either as the conditional expected value of the outflow peak or a value corresponding to a selected probability level. The method is illustrated with a real-world example and compared to common engineering methods.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)90078-7
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, A scaling model of storm hyetograph, Water Resources Research, 29 (7), 2345–2361, doi:10.1029/93WR00395, 1993.
Empirical evidence suggests that statistical properties of storm rainfall at a location and within a homogeneous season have a well-structured dependence on storm duration. To explain this dependence, a simple scaling model for rainfall intensity within a storm was hypothesized. It was shown both analytically and empirically that such a model can explain reasonably well the observed statistical structure in the interior of storms providing thus an efficient parameterization of storms of varying durations and total depths. This simple scaling model is also consistent with, and provides a theoretical basis for, the concept of mass curves (normalized cumulative storm depth vs. normalized cumulative time since the beginning of a storm) which are extensively used in hydrologic design. In contrast, popular stationary models of rainfall intensity are shown unable to capture the duration dependent statistical structure of storm depths and are also inconsistent with the concept of mass curves.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/93WR00395
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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I. Nalbantis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Modelling the Athens water supply system, Water Resources Management, 6, 57–67, doi:10.1007/BF00872188, 1992.
This paper presents an investigation of a real-world water-resources problem involving both planning and management aspects. The Athens water supply system is studied in order to assist its future operation and the design of alternative system improving works. The yield of the existing system is first assessed via simulation. Then the risk of system failure to meet the water demand is evaluated for various water demand scenarios and operation policies, with emphasis on the 1989-90 critical situation. Alternative future reservoirs in the Evinos River Basin are studied by testing large number of technical solutions. Uncertainties on hydrology, leakage losses, water demand, and possible damages are taken into account. Finally, a computer programme is developed to assist the water supply policy design for the existing Mornos-Iliki system.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00872188
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Giakoumakis, S.G., and G. Baloutsos, Investigation of trend in hydrological time series of the Evinos river basin, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 42(1), 81-88, 1997. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A nonlinear disaggregation method with a reduced parameter set for simulation of hydrologic series, Water Resources Research, 28 (12), 3175–3191, doi:10.1029/92WR01299, 1992.
A multivariate dynamic disaggregation model is developed as a stepwise approach to stochastic disaggregation problems, oriented towards hydrologic applications. The general idea of the approach is the conversion of a sequential stochastic simulation model, such as a seasonal AR(1), into a disaggregation model. Its structure includes two separate parts, a linear step-by-step moments determination procedure, based on the associated sequential model, and an independent nonlinear bivariate generation procedure (partition procedure). The model assures the preservation of the additive property of the actual (not transformed) variables. Its modular structure allows for various model configurations. Two different configurations (PAR(1) and PARX(1)) both associated with the sequential Markov model are studied. Like the sequential Markov model, both configurations utilize the minimum set of second order statistics and the marginal means and third moments of the lower level variables. All these statistics are approximated by the model with the use of explicit relations. Both configurations perform well with regard to the correlation of consecutive lower-level variables each located in consecutive higher-level time steps. The PARX(1) configuration exhibits better behaviour with regard to the correlation properties of lower level variables with lagged higher level variables.
Remarks:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/92WR01299
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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The single-site dynamic disaggregation model developed and presented in this paper is a generalized step-by-step approach to stochastic disaggregation problems. The forms studied concern low-level variables with Markovian structure and normal or gamma marginal distributions. Combined with a rainfall model, the disaggregation scheme gives a rainfall generator, transforming monthly rainfall into events and hourly amounts. A particular application of the generator, based on historical data, is used to illustrate and test the model.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/51/1/documents/1990HSJRainDis.pdf (1201 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626669009492431
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 10. | Wendling, I., and W. James, Comparison of neural networks to Ormsbee's method for rain generation - applied to Toronto, Ontario, Journal of Water Management Modeling, 10.14796/JWMM.R215-20, 2003. |
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| 14. | Damé, R.D.C.F., C.F.A. Teixeira, and V.S.S.Terra, Comparison of different methodologies to estimate intensity-duration- frequency curves for Pelotas - RS, Brazil, Engenharia Agricola, 28 (2), 245-255, 2008. |
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| 17. | Jennings, S. A., M. F. Lambert and G. Kuczera, Generating synthetic high resolution rainfall time series at sites with only daily rainfall using a master-target scaling approach, Journal of Hydrology, 393 (3-4), 163-173, 2010. |
| 18. | Serinaldi, F., Multifractality, imperfect scaling and hydrological properties of rainfall time series simulated by continuous universal multifractal and discrete random cascade models, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 17, 697-714, doi: 10.5194/npg-17-697-2010, 2010. |
| 19. | #Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra, Rainfall Generation, in Rainfall: State of the Science (eds F. Y. Testik and M. Gebremichael), American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 10.1029/2010GM000973, 2010. |
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| 21. | Pui, A., A. Sharma, R. Mehrotra, B. Sivakumar and E. Jeremiah, A comparison of alternatives for daily to sub-daily rainfall disaggregation, Journal of Hydrology, 470–471, 138–157, 2012. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, On the parametric approach to unit hydrograph identification, Water Resources Management, 3 (2), 107–128, doi:10.1007/BF00872467, 1989.
Unit hydrograph identification by the parametric approach is based on the assumption of a proper analytical form for its shape, using a limited number of parameters. This paper presents various suitable analytical forms for the instantaneous unit hydrograph, originated from known probability density functions or transformations of them. Analytical expressions for the moments of area of these forms, versus their definition parameters are theoretically derived. The relation between moments and specific shape characteristics are also examined. Two different methods of parameter estimation are studied, the first being the well-known method of moments, while the second is based on the minimization of the integral error between derived and recorded flood hydrographs. The above tasks are illustrated with application examples originated from case studies of catchments of Greece.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/49/1/documents/1989WARMParApprIUH.pdf (899 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00872467
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and K. Tarla, Sediment Yield Estimations in Greece, Technica Chronica, A-7 (3), 127–154, 1987.
This study is an attempt to draw conclusions from the available sediment measurement data in Greece and includes: (a) a brief report on the regime of sediment measurements in Greece, as well as their processing and utilization; (b) investigation of the effects of hydrological, climatic, topographical and geological factors on the sediment yield, based on the gauged data of Northwestern Greece with an attempt to interpret the effect of these factors; (c) derivation by statistical methods of an empirical formula for the sediment yield estimation from hydrological and geological data of the watershed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/50/1/documents/1987TCSedimGreece.pdf (1029 KB)
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 2. | #Zarris, D., E. Lykoudi and D. Panagoulia, Assessing the impacts of sediment yield on the sustainability of major hydraulic systems, Proceedings, Protection and Restoration of the Environment VIII, Mykonos, Greece, 2006. |
| 3. | Sigalos, G., V. Loukaidi, S. Dasaklis and A. Alexouli-Livaditi, Assessment of the quantity of the material transported downstream of Sperchios River, Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, XLIII (2), 737-745, 2010. |
M. Pantazidou, D. Koutsoyiannis, H. Saroglou, V. Marinos, and T. Iliopoulou, Infuse teaching with research practices: a pilot project – welcome presentation for first-year students on time scales in civil engineering projects, 1st Joint Conference of EUCEET and AECEF: The role of education for Civil Engineers in the implementation of the SDGs, Thessaloniki, 2021.
The seed motivation behind this paper is the realization that time is not given its due as a concept in Civil Engineering. The corresponding education need is expressed with the question “what educational material can stress the importance of time and how can it be produced?”. The approach chosen to answer the first part of the question was to juxtapose smaller and larger time scales and highlight their relevance to civil engineering projects in a video-presentation with the title “Earth, Water, Time and We, the civil engineers”. The project described in the paper consists of two products: the video-presentation and the methodology, which addresses the second part of the question motivating the work. The methodology infuses teaching with the research practices of teamwork and peer review, hence the production of the educational material can serve as a pilot for other endeavors to raise the standing of education relative to research.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2138/1/documents/2021_9_29_Pantazidou_EUCEET-AECEF_2021_Paper.pdf (339 KB)
Additional material:
R.R.P. van Nooijen, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A.G. Kolechkina, Optimal and real-time control of water infrastructures, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science, doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.627, Oxford University Press, 2021.
Humanity has been modifying the natural water cycle by building large-scale water infrastructure for millennia. For most of that time, the principles of hydraulics and control theory were only imperfectly known. Moreover, the feedback from the artificial system to the natural system was not taken into account, either because it was too small to notice or took too long to appear. In the 21st century, humanity is all too aware of the effects of our adaptation of the environment to our needs on the planetary system as a whole. It is necessary to see the environment, both natural and hman-made as one integrated system. Moreover, due to the legacy of the past, the behaviour of the man-madeparts of this system needs to be adapted in a way that leads to a sustainable ecosystem. The water cycle plays a central role in that ecosystem. It is therefore essential that the behaviour of existing and planned water infrastructure fits into the natural system and contributes to its well-being. At the same time, it must serve the purpose for which it was constructed. As there are no natural feedbacks to govern its behaviour, it will be necessary to create such feedbacks, possibly in the form of real-time control systems. To do so, it would be beneficial if all persons involved in the decision process that establishes the desired system behaviour understand the basics of control systems in general and their application to different water systems in particular. This article contains a discussion of the prerequisites for and early development of automatic control of water systems, an introduction to the basics of control theory with examples, a short description of optimal control theory in general, a discussion of model predictive control in water resource management, an overview of key aspects of automatic control in water resource management, and different types of applications. Finally, some challenges faced by practitioners are mentioned.
G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, M. Chiotinis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Aesthetical issues with stochastic evaluation, Data Analytics for Cultural Heritage, edited by A. Belhi, A. Bouras, A.K. Al-Ali, and A.H. Sadka, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-66777-1_8, Springer, 2021.
Throughout human history, the quantification of aesthetics has intrigued philosophers, artists, and mathematicians alike. In this chapter, a methodology based on stochastic mathematics is applied for the quantification of aesthetic attributes of paintings and landscapes. The paintings analyzed include Da Vinci, Pablo Picasso, and various other celebrated paintings from 1250 AD to modern times. In regard to landscapes, the analysis focuses on the aesthetic transformations imposed to landscapes from wind energy projects. The methodology used is called stochastic 2D-C analysis and is based on a stochastic computational tool that analyzes brightness fluctuation in images. The 2D-C tool is used to measure the degree of variability and in particular the change in variability vs. scale. The application of the tool provides (a) input on the qualitative efficiency of mainstream methods used in landscape-impact analysis, (b) insights into the expression forms of the examined artists and historical periods, and finally (c) evidence that can be used in the search of the originality of an artwork of disputed authorship.
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water and Energy, Handbook of Water Resources Management: Discourses, Concepts and Examples, edited by J.J. Bogardi, T. Tingsanchali, K.D.W. Nandalal, J. Gupta, L. Salamé, R.R.P. van Nooijen, A.G. Kolechkina, N. Kumar, and A. Bhaduri, Chapter 20, 617–655, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-60147-8_20, Springer Nature, Switzerland, 2021.
The fundamental concepts in the field of water-energy systems and their historical evolution with emphasis on recent developments are reviewed. Initially, a brief history of the relation of water and energy is presented, and the concept of the water-energy nexus in the 21th century is introduced. The investigation of the relationship between water and energy shows that this relationship comprises both conflicting and synergistic elements. Hydropower is identified as the major industry of the sector and its role in addressing modern energy challenges by means of integrated water-energy management is highlighted. Thus, the modelling steps of designing and operating a hydropower system are reviewed, followed by an analysis of theory and physics behind energy hydraulics. The key concept of uncertainty, which characterises all types of renewable energy, is also presented in the context of the design and management of water-energy systems. Subsequently, environmental considerations and impacts of using water for energy generation are discussed, followed by a summary of the developments in the emerging field of maritime energy. Finally, present challenges and possible future directions are presented.
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Error evolution patterns in multi-step ahead streamflow forecasting, 13th International Conference on Hydroinformatics (HIC 2018), Palermo, Italy, doi:10.29007/84k6, 2018.
Multi-step ahead streamflow forecasting is of practical interest. We examine the error evolution in multi-step ahead forecasting by conducting six simulation experiments. Within each of these experiments we compare the error evolution patterns created by 16 forecasting methods, when the latter are applied to 2 000 time series. Our findings suggest that the error evolution can differ significantly from the one forecasting method to the other and that some forecasting methods are more useful than others. However, the errors computed at each time step of a forecast horizon for a specific single-case study strongly depend on the case examined and can be either small or large, regardless of the used forecasting method and the time step of interest. This fact is illustrated with a comparative case study using 92 monthly time series of streamflow.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1851/1/documents/2018HIC_ErrorEvolution_pp.pdf (5650 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change impacts on hydrological science: How the climate change agenda has lowered the scientific level of hydrology (Plenary talk), 13th International Conference on Hydroinformatics (HIC 2018), Palermo, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12249.42084, 2018.
For centuries, hydrology has struggled to develop a scientific basis in order to provide both a coherent understanding of hydrological processes and a solid basis for technological applications. While uncertainty dominates in hydrological and other geophysical processes, it has not constituted an obstacle in understanding and application as it has been effectively modelled, mostly in terms of the probability theory. Hydrological modelling, using both deterministic and stochastic tools, has been built on proper epistemological foundations, such as model validation through the split-sample technique and uncertainty quantification of predictions. However in recent years, the needs for climate impact studies and particularly the popularity of catastrophic predictions of the distant future have shook these foundations for the sake of serving the climate change agenda. Non-validated or even invalidated future predictions (or projections) derived by climatic models have been routinely used in hydrology in a full imbalance with the endeavour of improving and validating the modelling of the hydrological processes per se. The presentation includes some examples as well as proposals for improving the current dreary situation.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1847/1/documents/2017PalermoClimate.pdf (7748 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, The water supply of Athens through the centuries, Schriften der Deutschen Wasserhistorischen Gesellschaft, edited by K. Wellbrock, 27 (1), Siegburg, 2018.
The sites where major ancient civilizations were developed had similar climatological and hydrological conditions. All sites have in common warm and dry climate but also abundance of water from a large river crossing the area. However, the sites of ancient Greek civilizations, while they also have warm and dry climate, are located in water deficient areas without large rives. The city of Athens played an important role to the Greek civilization and in general to the ancient world. It has been the cradle of democracy, the system of government in which all citizens are equally involved in taking decisions and actions. The natural environment of the Athens territory has been warm and dry, and the nearby Kephisos river has had ephemeral flow. The water scarcity of the area has been mentioned in many legends and ancient texts. Several aqueducts were constructed in several periods of the antiquity forming a network of pipelines.
The modern water supply system of Athens is an admirable hydraulic work. It includes four reservoirs in areas with different climates and geomorphological conditions, a complex aqueduct system and several water uses. The longest path of the water is about 217 km from Evinos Dam to Athens. The ancient Greek values and perspectives have been useful in the modern system design and management and have equal potential for modern problem solving. Several ancient Greek legacies are relevant in modern problem solving, including: (a) the creation of philosophy and episteme, (b) the conception of the principle of Orthos Logos (Right Reason), and (c) the creation of democracy.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1774/1/documents/Bd27-1_-_Koutsoyiannis_-_Mamassis_-_offprint.pdf (2792 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, P. Dimitriadis, F. Lombardo, and S. Stevens, From fractals to stochastics: Seeking theoretical consistency in analysis of geophysical data, Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences, edited by A.A. Tsonis, 237–278, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_14, Springer, 2018.
Fractal-based techniques have opened new avenues in the analysis of geophysical data. On the other hand, there is often a lack of appreciation of both the statistical uncertainty in the results, and the theoretical properties of the stochastic concepts associated with these techniques. Several examples are presented which illustrate suspect results of fractal techniques. It is proposed that concepts used in fractal analyses are stochastic concepts and the fractal techniques can readily be incorporated into the theory of stochastic processes. This would be beneficial in studying biases and uncertainties of results in a theoretically consistent framework, and in avoiding unfounded conclusions. In this respect, a general methodology for theoretically justified stochastic processes, which evolve in continuous time and stem from maximum entropy production considerations, is proposed. Some important modelling issues are discussed with focus on model identification and fitting, often made using inappropriate methods. The theoretical framework is applied to several processes, including turbulent velocities measured every several microseconds, and wind and temperature measurements. The applications shows that several peculiar behaviours observed in these processes are easily explained and reproduced by stochastic techniques.
Additional material:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
R. Ioannidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The architectural and landscape value of dams: from international examples to proposals for Greece, Proceedings of 3rd Hellenic Conference on Dams and Reservoirs, Zappeion, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, Athens, 2017.
Dam architecture has been an issue that has not significantly concerned Greek organizations engaged in research, design and construction of dams. This research paper explores the need to raise the awareness of these organizations on issues related to the architecture of dams and produces relevant proposals. Initially, the current situation is investigated in relation to the architecture of Greek dams and the impact of these projects on the Greek landscape is evaluated. Then, international examples of architectural interventions on dams are examined leading to the creation of database of techniques and ideas that could be implemented in Greece or worldwide. At last, a case study examining the architectural design of a Hardfill dam is conducted, in which the technical, construction-process, architecture and cost aspects of the proposed architectural interventions are analyzed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2105/1/documents/IoannidisKoutsoyiannis2017.pdf (836 KB)
P. Dimas, D. Bouziotas, D. Nikolopoulos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Framework for optimal management of hydroelectric reservoirs through pumped storage: Investigation of Acheloos-Thessaly and Aliakmon hydrosystems, Proceedings of 3rd Hellenic Conference on Dams and Reservoirs, Zappeion, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, Athens, 2017.
In this study, a holistic approach for the optimal management of two large, multi-reservoir hydrosystems in Greece is analysed, applied in cases of multiple and conflicting water uses, such as hydroelectric production and the coverage of irrigation and drinking water demands. In general, the optimal management of such hydrosystems presents a strong challenge for engineers, due to the stochasticity of inflows and the non-linear nature of hydroelectric production. To manage the strong variability of renewable energy production, the use of the two studied cases of Acheloos-Thessaly and Aliakmonas as pump-storage systems is proposed. To explore the optimal management policies, the methodological framework of “Parameterisation-Simulation-Optimisation” (PSO) is applied, employed through the use of Hydronomeas software and its hydroelectric production optimization module. The goal of the analysis is the estimation of the capacity to generate firm energy with a preset high reliability level in both systems, as well as the assessment of the consequent economic benefit obtained with the optimal policies found through Hydronomeas. Moreover, the benefits of employing pump-storage schemes in order to provide a buffer for other renewable energy sources with strong variability, such as wind energy, is explored.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1747/1/documents/fragmata2017.pdf (1070 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and R. Ioannidis, The energetic, environmental and aesthetic superiority of large hydropower projects over other renewable energy projects, Proceedings of 3rd Hellenic Conference on Dams and Reservoirs, Zappeion, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, Athens, 2017.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1745/1/documents/2017SynedrioFragmatwn5.pdf (3948 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, A. Tegos, A. Petsiou, V. Pagana, I. Apostolopoulos, E. Vassilopoulos, M. Gini, A. D. Koussis, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Papanicolaou, Flood Directive implementation in Greece: Experiences and future improvements, 10th World Congress on Water Resources and Environment "Panta Rhei", Athens, European Water Resources Association, 2017.
The implementation of the European Directive 2007/60 is a crucial step towards the development of a sophisticated flood management plan for the main River Basin Districts by including any necessary structural measures. For this reason, extensive hydrological and hydraulic analysis is needed under the ubiquitous uncertainty which cannot be eliminated by numerical models. In this study, we present our experience from the directive implementation and we discuss structural components of uncertainty in the flood modelling practice mostly related to the river network. We propose and review some of the most efficient engineering practices by examining issues like: (a) the consistency and accuracy of the required input data of the topography such as the Digital Elevation Model, cross-sectional measurements of the river and maps of land use; (b) the uncertainty components related to the hydrological SCS-CN framework and other hydrological methods for the determination of the input hydrograph; (c) the theoretical framework of each hydraulic model such as the scheme dimension (1d, 2d or coupled 1d/2d), the type of solution of the numerical scheme (explicit or implicit), the boundary conditions and the type of discretization (grid or sectionbased); (d) the uncertainty components related to the flood inundation modelling, such as the roughness coefficient at the river and floodplain; (e) the necessity of validation data such as the flow discharge, the flood inundation area, and the velocity measurements.
D. Koutsoyiannis, ‘Panta Rhei’ and its relationship with uncertainty, 10th World Congress on Water Resources and Environment "Panta Rhei", Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15701.73444, European Water Resources Association, 2017.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1724/1/documents/2017EWRA_PantaRhei.pdf (3661 KB)
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Forecasting of geophysical processes using stochastic and machine learning algorithms, 10th World Congress on Water Resources and Environment "Panta Rhei", Athens, EWRA2017_A_110904, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30581.27361, European Water Resources Association, Athens, 2017.
We perform an extensive comparison between four stochastic and two machine learning (ML) forecasting algorithms by conducting a multiple-case study. The latter is composed by 50 single-case studies, which use time series of total monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperature observed in Greece. We apply a fixed methodology to each individual case and, subsequently, we perform a cross-case synthesis to facilitate the detection of systematic patterns. The stochastic algorithms include the Autoregressive order one model, an algorithm from the family of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average models, an Exponential Smoothing State Space algorithm and the Theta algorithm, while the ML algorithms are Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. We also use the last observation as a Naive benchmark in the comparisons. We apply the forecasting methods to the deseasonalized time series. We compare the one-step ahead as also the multi-step ahead forecasting properties of the algorithms. Regarding the one-step ahead forecasting properties, the assessment is based on the absolute error of the forecast of the last observation. For the comparison of the multi-step ahead forecasting properties we use five metrics applied to the test set (last twelve observations), i.e. the root mean square error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of standard deviations, the index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation. Concerning the ML algorithms, we also perform a sensitivity analysis for time lag selection. Additionally, we compare more sophisticated ML methods as regards to the hyperparameter optimization to simple ones.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1717/1/documents/EWRA2017_paper.pdf (8540 KB)
Additional material:
N. Malamos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial interpolation of potential evapotranspiration for precision irrigation purposes, 10th World Congress on Water Resources and Environment "Panta Rhei", Athens, European Water Resources Association, 2017.
Precision irrigation constitutes a breakthrough for agricultural water management since it provides means to optimal water use. In recent years several applications of precision irrigation are implemented based on spatial data from different origins, i.e. meteorological stations networks, remote sensing data and in situ measurements. One of the factors affecting optimal irrigation system design and management is the daily potential evapotranspiration (PET). A commonly used approach is to estimate the daily PET for the representative day of each month during the irrigation period. In the present study, the implementation of the recently introduced non-parametric bilinear surface smoothing (BSS) methodology for spatial interpolation of daily PET is presented. The study area was the plain of Arta which is located at the Region of Epirus at the North West Greece. Daily PET was estimated according to the FAO Penman-Monteith methodology with data collected from a network of six agrometeorological stations, installed in early 2015 in selected locations throughout the study area. For exploration purposes, we produced PET maps for the Julian dates: 105, 135, 162, 199, 229 and 259, thus covering the entire irrigation period of 2015. Also, comparison and cross validation against the calculated FAO Penman-Monteith PET for each station, were performed between BSS and a commonly used interpolation method, i.e. inverse distance weighted (IDW). During the leave-one-out cross validation procedure, BSS yielded very good results, outperforming IDW. Given the simplicity of the BSS, its overall performance is satisfactory, providing maps that represent the spatial and temporal variation of daily PET.
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | da Silva Júnior, J. C. , V. Medeiros, C. Garrozi, A. Montenegro, and G. E. Gonçalves, Random forest techniques for spatial interpolation of evapotranspiration data from Brazilian’s Northeast, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 166, 105017, doi:10.1016/j.compag.2019.105017, 2019. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Extreme rainfall: Global perspective, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition, edited by V.P. Singh, 74.1–74.16, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2017.
The study of rainfall extremes is important for design purposes of flood protection works, in the development of flood risk management plans and in assessing the severity of occurring storm and flood events. Such study unavoidably relies on observational data, which, given the enormous variability of the precipitation process in space and in time, should be local, of the area of interest. While general statistical laws or patterns apply over the globe, the parameters of those laws vary substantially and need local data to be estimated. Because of their global coverage, satellite data can be insightful to show the behavior of precipitation over the globe. However, only ground data (observations from raingages) are reliable enough for rainfall extremes and also have adequate length of archive that allows reliable statistical fitting. The study of the record rainfalls throughout the globe provides some useful information on the behavior of rainfall worldwide. While most of these record events have been registered at tropical areas (with a tendency for grouping in time with highest occurrence frequency in the period 1960-1980), there are record events that have occurred in extratropical areas and exceed, for certain time scales, those that occurred in tropical areas. The record values for different time scales allow the fitting of a curve which indicates that the record rainfall depth increases approximately proportionally to the square root of the time scale. Clearly, however, these record values do not suggest an upper limit of rainfall and are destined to be exceeded, as past record values have already been exceeded. In addition, the very concept of the probable maximum precipitation, which assumes a physical upper limit to precipitation at a site, is demonstrated to be fallacious. The only scientific approach to quantify extreme rainfall is provided by the probability theory. Theoretical arguments and general empirical evidence from many rainfall records worldwide suggest power-law distribution tail of extreme rainfall and favor the Extreme Value type II (EV2) distribution of maxima. The shape parameter of the EV2 distribution appears to vary in a narrow range worldwide. This facilitates fitting of the EV2 distribution and allows its easy implementation in typical engineering tasks such as estimation and prediction of design parameters, including the construction of theoretically consistent ombrian (also known as IDF) curves, which constitute a very important tool for hydrological design and flood severity assessment.
Additional material:
A. Tsouni, C. Contoes, E. Ieronymidi, A. Koukouvinos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, BEYOND Center of Excellence: flood mapping and modelling, 1st International Geomatics Applications “Geomapplica” Conference, Skiathos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1129.7520, University of Thessaly, 2014.
Flood is defined as ‘a covering by water of land not normally covered by water’ in the European Union Floods Directive 2007/60/EC. Human activities, such as agriculture, urban development, industry and tourism, contribute to an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events. It is thus important to establish flood risk management plans focused on prevention, protection and preparedness. The ultimate goal of the Flood Hazard activities in the BEYOND Center of Excellence is to reduce and manage the risks that floods pose to human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity. In this direction, we select river basins at high risk of flooding, we study the hydraulic behaviour of the river, and we proceed to the flood modelling validation and enhancement with the integration of satellite and radar data. In the context of the implementation of BEYOND by the National Observatory of Athens, we have launched the Floods Observatory in Greece where we register the major flood events in Greece and we publish the results we produce following process of satellite and radar images. Our first area of interest is Arachthos river basin, a river with several flood events, very close to the city of Arta, where the Public Power Corporation S.A. is operating two hydroelectric plants.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1565/1/documents/Paper_BEYOND_Floods_v2a.pdf (1110 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Views on ancient Hellenic science and technology, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture, Patras, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2702.6163, International Water Association, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1438/1/documents/patra_22_3_14_1.pdf (5352 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Past and modern water problems: progress or regression? (Invited), IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture, Patras, Greece, 3–13, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4144.4082, International Water Association, 2014.
Human needs related to water storage, transfer and utilization triggered technological advancements since prehistoric times in all civilizations. A comparison of technological solutions to water problems in ancient and modern Greece reveals that, while the present day technologies are obviously superior, the underlying design principles are not different in the two cases, while it is questionable whether there has been any progress with respect to durability, sustainability and balance in water technology and management. Furthermore, it can be supported that the present day approaches manifest a regression in that logos, logic and rational inquiry tend to be abandoned and replaced by stereotypes and doctrines, particularly those related to the environmentalist ideology, which have obstructed progress during recent decades.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4144.4082
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Bouziotas, D., and M. Ertsen, Socio-hydrology from the bottom up: A template for agent-based modeling in irrigation systems, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2017-107, 2017. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Patrikiou, Water control in Ancient Greek cities, A History of Water: Water and Urbanization, edited by T. Tvedt and T. Oestigaard, 130–148, I.B. Tauris, London, 2014.
Additional material:
See also: http://www.ibtauris.com/Series/History%20of%20Water.aspx
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Antoniou, G. P., G. Lyberatos, E. I. Kanetaki, A. Kaiafa, K. Voudouris and A. N. Angelakis, History of urban wastewater and stormwater sanitation technologies in Hellas, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, 99-146, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
E.N. Otay, A. Stamou, Y.C. Altan, G. Papadonikolaki, N. Copty, G. Christodoulou, F.T. Karakoc, V. Tsoukala, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Papadopoulos, Risk assessment of oil spill accidents, Part 2: application to Saronikos gulf and Izmir bay, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Athens, 2013.
In a companion paper (Stamou et al., 2013) an integrated mathematical model was presented for the assessment of oil spill risk due to maritime accidents. The model consists of four parts: (1) a physics-based hydrodynamic model (HYM) which computes the spatial distribution of surface water currents as the main driving force for oil transport, (2) an expert-based accident assessment model (AAM) to compute the frequency, location and characteristics of expected oil spills, (3) a physics-based oil spill model (OSM) which computes the propagation and fate of the oil slick, and (4) an expert-based impact assessment model (IAM) to compute the distribution of coastal impact due to oil contamination. In the present paper, the model is applied to two areas: the Saronicos Gulf, Greece and Izmir Bay, Turkey. The main criteria for case selection were the busy maritime traffic in both areas and the fact that the two large metropolitan areas of respective countries are located in these bays. The flow fields in both areas were determined by the HYM for a large number of wind scenarios, based on which the transport and weathering of an oil slick were computed by the OSM. The most probable oil spill locations were identified by AAM based on the bathymetry, the maritime traffic and the currents. Finally, the IAM was applied to draw Coastal Oil Impact Maps in the regions of interest. Emphasis was placed on the presentation of the risk of oil reaching the coastline. Environmental sensitivity and economic importance were taken into account by assigning index values to all coastal cells.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1564/1/documents/CEST_2013.pdf (758 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Papadonikolaki, G.S., Y.C. Altan, A.I. Stamou, E.N. Otay, G.C. Christodoulou, N.K. Copty, V.K. Tsoukala, F. Telli-Karakoc and A. Papadopoulos, Risk assessment of oil spill accidents, Global Nest Journal, 16 (4), 743-752, 2014. |
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Information technologies in hydrometeorological data management in Greece, Honorary Edition for for Professor Emeritus D. Tolikas, edited by K. L. Katsifarakis and M. Vafiadis, 27–37, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1165.5928, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 2013.
The record keeping of hydrometeorological measurements is particularly important infrastructure for research and technology, but it is also extremely useful for the industry and administration. In Greece, efforts for bringing together the data belonging to various institutions and their organization into a common base started in the 1990s with the Hydroscope project. Today this database is available on the Internet (www.hydroscope.gr) within a larger system that includes geographical information, software applications for data processing and a digital library of documents related to water resources. Ensuring updating the database with new measurements is particularly useful as the country's infrastructure and as a means for implementation in the country of the EU Directives related to water.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1416/1/documents/2013Hydroscope.pdf (1076 KB)
C. Ioannou, G. Tsekouras, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes for optimizing hybrid renewable energy systems, Proceedings of the 2nd Hellenic Concerence on Dams and Reservoirs, Athens, Zappeion, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3787.0327, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, 2013.
The drawbacks of conventional energy sources including their negative environmental impacts emphasize the need to integrate renewable energy sources into the energy balance. However, the renewable sources strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological processes, including wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of hybrid energy systems we investigate the stochastic properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence. We use wind speed and sunshine duration time series retrieved from a European database of daily records and we estimate representative values of the Hurst coefficient for both variables. We conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale. To this we use the Castalia software system which performs multivariate stochastic simulation. Using these time series as input, we perform stochastic simulation of an autonomous hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system and optimize its performance using genetic algorithms. For the system design we optimize the sizing of the system in order to satisfy the energy demand with high reliability also minimizing the cost. While the simulation scale is the daily, a simple method allows utilizing the sub-daily distribution of the produced wind power. Various scenarios are assumed in order to examine the influence of input parameters, such as the Hurst coefficient, and design parameters such as the photovoltaic panel angle.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1408/1/documents/2013Fragmata_Hybrid.pdf (549 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3787.0327
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Bakanos, P. I., and K. L. Katsifarakis, Optimizing operation of a large-scale pumped storage hydropower system coordinated with wind farm by means of genetic algorithm, Global Nest Journal, 21(4), 495- 504, doi:10.30955/gnj.002978, 2019. |
A. Efstratiadis, D. Bouziotas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A decision support system for the management of hydropower systems – Application to the Acheloos-Thessaly hydrosystem, Proceedings of the 2nd Hellenic Concerence on Dams and Reservoirs, Athens, Zappeion, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1952.0244, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, 2013.
We describe a holistic approach for the management of complex hydrosystems whose primary aim is hydropower production. This is based on the parameterisation-simulation-optimization methodological framework, which is implemented within the Decision Support System “Hydronomeas”. After the analysis of the developed methodology and simulation and optimization tools, a number of applications in the Acheloos-Thessaly hydrosystem are shown. The results include the assessment of the hydropower potential of the system as well as its corresponding benefit, thus being of particular interest to long-term energy planning.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1407/2/documents/2013Fragmata_Acheloos.pdf (1801 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Water resources development and management for developing countries in the 21st century: revisiting older and newer ideas (keynote lecture), International Symposium on Answers to Asian Aquatic Problems 2013, Tokyo, Japan, 11–18, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3721.4965, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 2013.
The development and management of water resources involve several important scientific and technical questions, as well as logico-philosophical ones, yet they may strongly depend on economic, social, political and ideological influences. Some of these aspects are briefly examined considering the experiences of the developed countries in the 20th century, but with reference to developing countries in the 21st century.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1402/1/documents/2013AAAOldNewIdeas_txt.pdf (264 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://www.comp.tmu.ac.jp/water/AAA+2013/proceedings.html
A. Efstratiadis, A. D. Koussis, S. Lykoudis, A. Koukouvinos, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, N. Kappos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling, Proceedings of First International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of Environment, Paphos, Cyprus, 8795, 10-1–10-10, doi:10.1117/12.2028621, Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE), 2013.
Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk –a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive– it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its functionality has been implemented as open-source software for use in a wide range of applications in the field of water resources monitoring and management, such as the demonstration case study outlined in this work.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2028621
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Damte, F., B. G. Mariam, M. Teshome, T. K. Lohani, G. Dhiman, and M. Shabaz, Computing the sediment and ensuing its erosive activities using HEC-RAS to surmise the flooding in Kulfo River in Southern Ethiopia, World Journal of Engineering, doi:10.1108/WJE-01-2021-0002, 2021. |
A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A parametric model for potential evapotranspiration estimation based on a simplified formulation of the Penman-Monteith equation, Evapotranspiration - An Overview, edited by S. Alexandris, 143–165, doi:10.5772/52927, InTech, 2013.
The article, apart from the introduction (section 1), is organized as follows: In section 2, we review the Penman-Monteith method and its simplifications, which estimate evapotranspiration on the basis of temperature and radiation data. In section 3 we present the new parametric model, which compromises the requirements for parsimony and consistency. In section 4, we calibrate the model at the point scale, using historical meteorological data, and evaluate it against other empirical approaches. In addition, we investigate the geographical distribution of its parameters over Greece. Finally, in section 5 we summarize the outcomes of our research and discuss next research steps.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1284/1/documents/2013InTech_ParametricModelPET.pdf (819 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/52927
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Samaras, D. A., A. Reif, and K. Theodoropoulos, Evaluation of radiation-based reference evapotranspiration models under different Mediterranean climates in Central Greece, Water Resources Management, 28 (1), 207-225, 2014. |
| 2. | Tabari, H., P. H. Talaee, P. Willems, and C. Martinez, Validation and calibration of solar radiation equations for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration at cool semi-arid and arid locations, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(3), 610-619, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.947293, 2016. |
| 3. | Jaber, H. S., S. Mansor, B. Pradhan, and N. Ahmad, Evaluation of SEBAL model for evapotranspiration mapping in Iraq using remote sensing and GIS, International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, 11(6), 3950-3955, 2016. |
| 4. | Kumar, D., J. Adamowski, R. Suresh, and B. Ozga-Zielinski, Estimating evapotranspiration using an extreme learning machine model: case study in North Bihar, India, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 04016032, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0001044, 2016. |
| 5. | Djaman, K., D. Rudnick, V. C. Mel, and D. Mutiibwa, Evaluation of Valiantzas’ simplified forms of the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration model in a humid climate, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0001191, 2017. |
| 6. | Tegos, M., I. Nalbantis, and A. Tegos, Environmental flow assessment through integrated approaches, European Water, 60, 167-173, 2017. |
| 7. | Norström, E., C. Katrantsiotis, R. H. Smittenberg, and K. Kouli, Chemotaxonomy in some Mediterranean plants and implications for fossil biomarker records, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 219, 96-110, doi:10.1016/j.gca.2017.09.029, 2017. |
| 8. | Hodam, S., S. Sarkar, A.G.R. Marak, A. Bandyopadhyay, and A. Bhadra, Spatial interpolation of reference evapotranspiration in India: Comparison of IDW and Kriging methods, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, doi:10.1007/s40030-017-0241-z, 2017. |
| 9. | Mentzafou, A., S. Wagner, and E. Dimitriou, Historical trends and the long-term changes of the hydrological cycle components in a Mediterranean river basin, Science of The Total Environment, 636, 558-568, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.298, 2018. |
| 10. | Norström, E., C. Katrantsiotis, M. Finné, J. Risberg, R. H. Smittenberg, S. Bjursäter, Biomarker hydrogen isotope composition (δD) as proxy for Holocene hydroclimatic change and seismic activity in SW Peloponnese, Greece, Journal of Quaternary Science, 33(5), 563-574, doi:10.1002/jqs.3036, 2018. |
| 11. | Mengistu, B., and G. Amente, Three methods of estimating the power of maximum temperature in TM–ET estimation equation, SN Applied Sciences, 1:1403, doi:10.1007/s42452-019-1461-9, 2019. |
| 12. | Mengistu, B., and G. Amente, Reformulating and testing Temesgen-Melesse's temperature-based evapotranspiration estimation method, Heliyon, 6(1), e02954, doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02954, 2020. |
| 13. | Středová, H., J. Klimešová, T. Středa, and P. Fukalová, Could the directly measured data of transpiration be replaced by model outputs?, Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 50(1), 33-47, doi:10.31577/congeo.2020.50.1.2, 2020. |
| 14. | Jaiswal, S., and M. S. Ballal, Fuzzy inference based irrigation controller for agricultural demand side management, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 175, 105537, doi:10.1016/j.compag.2020.105537, 2020. |
| 15. | Rezaei, M., H. Ghasemieh, and K. Abdollahi, Simplified version of the METRIC model for estimation of actual evapotranspiration, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 42(14), 5568-5599, doi:10.1080/01431161.2021.1925991, 2021. |
| 16. | Dos Santos, A. A., J. L. M. de Souza, and S. L. K. Rosa, Evapotranspiration with the Moretti-Jerszurki-Silva model for the Brazilian subtropical climate, Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi:10.1080/02626667.2021.1988610, 2021. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Reconciling hydrology with engineering (Openning lecture), IDRA 2012 – XXXIII Conference of Hydraulics and Hydraulic Engineering, Brescia, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2279.7046, 2012.
Hydrology has played an important role in the birth of Science in the antiquity. Indeed, the first scientific problems, put and studied as such, were about hydrological phenomena. Yet practical hydrological knowledge existed before the development of natural philosophy and science. This knowledge had its roots in human needs related to water storage, transfer and management. The term “hydrology” did not exist in the ancient literature and appeared only in the end of the eighteenth century to describe a body of knowledge related to water, on the one hand, and meteorological, climatological and health issues, on the other hand. However, it was the close relationship of hydrology with engineering that advanced it in a modern quantitative scientific discipline. This relationship is testified even in the first books bearing the name “hydrology” in their cover. These books, published in the second half of the 19th century, contained hydrological observational information along with hydraulic formulae and tables. It was only in the 1960s that, owing to UNESCO, hydrology acquired a clear, elegant and practically unquestionable until today, definition as a science. This definition places it among the geosciences and does not explicitly recognize a link with engineering. Nonetheless, hydrology continued its interaction with engineering and its development was related to the needs of the design and management of water infrastructures. In the 1980s this interaction was questioned and it was emphatically supported that cutting the umbilical cord between hydrology and engineering would be beneficial for both. Thereafter, hydrology, instead of becoming an autonomous science, it developed new umbilical cords, becoming a subservient to politically driven agendas, including green and, particularly, climate-related politics. This change of direction was dictated by the research funding opportunities, which disfavoured the autonomous character of hydrology and narrowed its role, for example in studying hypothetical or projected climate-related threats. Several negative experiences from the developments in the last years may make us think that reconciling hydrology with engineering could help hydrology to land again from the virtual reality into the real world, where data and facts are more important than models and predictions are tested against empirical evidence. Engineering experience may help hydrology to appreciate that parsimonious macroscopic descriptions are more powerful than inflationary detailed ones and that holistic approaches are more effective than reductionist ones. A fertilizing field of mutual integration of hydrology and engineering could be the study of change and the implied uncertainty and risk, which we cannot eliminate yet we can live with and cope with, in a manner that can be, and needs to be, quantitative and rigorous.
Remarks:
Please visit/cite the newer version of this article.
Koutsoyiannis, D., Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), 2–22, 2014.
Related works:
Full text:
S. Kozanis, A. Christofides, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, openmeteo.org: a web service for the dissemination of free meteorological data, Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, edited by C.G. Helmis and P. Nastos, Athens, 203–208, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-29172-2_29, Springer, Athens, 2012.
Individuals or organisations managing meteorological or hydrological stations typically need to either collect the data on personal computers or bear the costs required to setup a server. As an alternative, the openmeteo.org database provides users and organisations the option to upload their time series, on condition that their data will be available to the public under a free license (the Open Database License and the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, depending on the type of data). Each user has write access to his own data, whereas the public has read access to all the data. Enhydris, the software that powers openmeteo.org, is also free, available under the GNU General Public License v.3, and provides several useful features like time series graphs and plots, display of online data, maps etc. The purpose of openmeteo.org is not only to enable people to manage their data more easily, but also to bring people into a community and encourage a spirit of openness and sharing.
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Zarkadoulas, N. Mamassis, A. N. Angelakis, and L.W. Mays, The evolution of water supply throughout the millennia: A short overview, Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia, edited by A. N. Angelakis, L.W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, 21, 553–560, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2541.8485, IWA Publishing, London, 2012.
Additional material:
See also: http://books.google.gr/books?id=WxXu83RxSNwC&pg=PA553&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false
N. Zarkadoulas, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. N. Angelakis, A brief history of urban water management in ancient Greece, Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia, edited by A. N. Angelakis, L.W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, 10, 259–270, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4114.7127, IWA Publishing, London, 2012.
Additional material:
See also: http://books.google.gr/books?id=WxXu83RxSNwC&pg=PA259&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Mithen, S., Thirst for Water and Power in the Ancient World, 384 pp., Harvard University Press, 2012. |
| 2. | Voudouris, K. S., Y. Christodoulakos, F. Steiakakis and A. N. Angelakis, Hydrogeological characteristics of Hellenic aqueducts-like Qanats, Water, 5, 1326-1345, 2013. |
| 3. | De Feo, G., A. N. Angelakis, G. P. Antoniou, F. El-Gohary, B. Haut, C. W. Passchier and X. Y. Zheng, Historical and technical notes on aqueducts from prehistoric to medieval times, Water, 5, 1996-2025, 2013. |
| 4. | Smith, M. L., The archaeology of urban landscapes, Annual Review of Anthropology, 43, 307-323, 2014. |
| 5. | Angelakis, A. N., G. Antoniou, K. Voudouris, N. Kazakis, N. Delazios, and N. Dercas, History of floods in Greece: causes and measures for protection, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-020-03898-w, 2020. |
A. N. Angelakis, L.W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Prolegomena: The evolution of water supply through the millennia, Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia, edited by A. N. Angelakis, L.W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, xxi–xxii, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1542.4245, IWA Publishing, 2012.
Additional material:
E. Kountouri, N. Petrochilos, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, N. Zarkadoulas, A. Vött, H. Hadler, P. Henning, and T. Willershäuser, A new project of surface survey, geophysical and excavation research of the mycenaean drainage works of the North Kopais: the first study season, 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul, Turkey, 467–476, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2328.8563, International Water Association, 2012.
The attempt to drain the Kopais Lake is one of the most impressive and ambitious technical works of prehistoric times in Greece. The size and the importance of this achievement inspired myths and traditions referring to its construction and operation, as well as to its final destruction, which is attributed to Heracles. The impressive remnants of the Mycenaean hydraulic works that were discovered represent the most important land reclamation effort, of prehistoric Greek antiquity, attracting thus the attention of the international scientific community. Nevertheless, in spite of the minor or extended surveys that followed, the picture of the prehistoric drainage works in Kopais remained ambiguous, since the proposed theories as far as it concerns their function and their precise date within the Bronze Age, were based solely on indications from the surface survey and not on documentation depending upon archaeological or geophysical methods. The new project with an interdisciplinary approach and interpretation of the Mycenaean drainage works of Kopais, is conducted by the Greek Ministry of Culture and Tourism in collaboration with the Department of Water Resources and the Environmental Engineering of the National Technical University of Athens and the Institute of Geography of the University of Mainz. The results of the first study season will be presented here.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1204/1/documents/2012WWTAC_Copais.pdf (1012 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2328.8563
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Petropoulos, M., The cult and the use of water in Ancient Greece with emphasis the ancient city Patras, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 14-26, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
| 2. | Giannakos, K., The technology of land reclamation, drainage and irrigation projects in MBA–LBA Greece and possible implications, Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 4, 68-78, 2015. |
A. N. Angelakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Papanicolaou, On the geometry of the Minoan water conduits, 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul, Turkey, 172–177, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4426.0083, International Water Association, 2012.
Several different types of conduits were found in archaeological excavations in Crete belonging to the Minoan period. They were used for water supply as well as for stormwater and wastewater removal and are made of stone or terracotta. The terracotta conduits were canals or pipes with rectangular or circular cross section. The most interesting conduits are the terracotta pipes of truncated conic shape which were never used before or later in other civilizations. An ongoing experiment using reconstructed pipes of this shape will be employed to evaluate their hydraulic behaviour and investigate possible advantages for certain flow conditions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1203/1/documents/2012WWTAC_MinoanPipes.pdf (448 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4426.0083
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Angelakis, A. N., A. G. Lyrintzis and S. V. Spyridakis, Urban water and wastewater technologies in Minoan Crete, Greece, Proceedings 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul, Turkey, 208-214, 2012. |
| 2. | #Angelakis, A. N., Water supply and sewerage in Minoan Crete: lessons and legacies, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 509-518, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
| 3. | #Angelakis , A. N., G. De Feo , P. Laureano and A. Zourou, Minoan and Etruscan water and wastewater technologies: approaches and lessons learned, e-Proceedings of IWA Congress & Exhibition, Bussan, Korea, September 16-21, 2012. |
| 4. | Angelakis , A. N., G. De Feo , P. Laureano and A. Zourou, Minoan and Etruscan hydro-technologies, Water, 5, 972-987, 10.3390/w5030972, 2013. |
| 5. | Angelakis, A.N., and S.V. Spyridakis, Major urban water and wastewater systems in Minoan Crete, Greece, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 13 (3), 564-573, 2013. |
| 6. | De Feo, G., G. Antoniou, H. F. Fardin, F. El-Gohary X. Y. Zheng, I. Reklaityte, D.Butler, S. Yannopoulos and A. N. Angelakis, The historical development of sewers worldwide, Sustainability, 6 (6), 3936-3974, 2014. |
| 7. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. Kavoulaki and E. G. Dialynas, Sanitation and wastewater technologies in Minoan Era, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
| 8. | #El-Gohary, F.A., Evolution of sanitation and wastewater technologies in Egypt through centuries, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, 55-68, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
| 9. | #Mitchell, P.D., Sanitation, Latrines and Intestinal Parasites in Past Populations, Ashgate Publishing, 1-278, 2015. |
| 10. | Juuti, P.S., G.P. Antoniou, W. Dragoni, F. El-Gohary, G. De Feo, T.S. Katko, R.P. Rajala, X.Y. Zheng, R. Drusiani and A.N. Angelakis, Short global history of fountains, Water, 7 (5), 2314-2348, 10.3390/w7052314, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Zarkadoulas, and Y. Markonis, Floods in Greece, Changes of Flood Risk in Europe, edited by Z. W. Kundzewicz, Chapter 12, 238–256, IAHS Press, Wallingford – International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012.
The flood regime in Greece is investigated, from the early past to modern years. Large-scale floods, mainly due to deglaciation processes (also known as palaeofloods), together with earthquakes and volcanoes, are the major mechanisms that formed the current diverse Greek terrain. The influence of these impressive phenomena is reflected in some ancient myths, also reflecting earlier efforts of flood control and management. The struggle of humans against the destructive power of floods is further testified by several structures revealed by archaeological research. In modern times, the dramatic change of the demographic and socio-economic conditions made imperative the construction of large-scale water projects, which in turn resulted in large-scale environmental changes. The consequences of these practices, both positive and negative, are discussed, with regard to the problem of floods in Greece.
Additional material:
See also: http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780203098097/
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Kundzewicz, Z. W., Introduction, Changes of Flood Risk in Europe, IAHS-AISH Publication, (SPEC. ISS. 10), (ed. Z. W. Kundzewicz), 1-7, 2012. |
| 2. | Mentzafou, A. and Dimitriou, E.: Flood risk assessment for a heavily modified urban stream, Proc. IAHS, 366, 147-148, 10.5194/piahs-366-147-2015, 2015. |
| 3. | Karagiorgos, K., M. Heiser, T. Thaler, J. Hübl, and S. Fuchs, Micro-sized enterprises: vulnerability to flash floods, Natural Hazards, 84(2), 1091–1107, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2476-9, 2016. |
| 4. | #Sevastas, S., I. Siarkos, N. Theodossiou, I. Ifadis, and K. Kaffas, Comparing hydrological models built upon open access and/or measured data in a GIS environment, Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Environmental Management, Engineering, Planning & Economics, 377-386, Thessaloniki, 2017. |
| 5. | Veal, R. J., The politics and economics of ancient forests: Timber and fuel as levers of Greco-Roman control, Economie et inégalité: Ressources, échanges et pouvoir dans l'Antiquité classique, 63(8), 317-367, doi :10.17863/CAM.13218, 2017. |
| 6. | Diakakis, M., G. Deligiannakis, K. Katsetsiadou, Z. Antoniadis, and M. Melaki, Mapping and classification of direct flood impacts in the complex conditions of an urban environment: The case study of the 2014 flood in Athens, Greece, Urban Water Journal, 14(10), 1065-1074, doi:10.1080/1573062X.2017.1363247, 2017. |
| 7. | #Karatzas, S., D. Chondrogiani, and P. Saranti, Intelligent sustainable urban drainage systems (I-SUDS): A framework for flood mitigation and rainwater reuse, Fifth International Conference on Small and Descentralised Water and Wastewater Treatment Plants, Thessaloniki, 2018. |
| 8. | #Angelakis, A. N., G. Antoniou, K. Voudouris, N. Kazakis, and N. Dalezios, History of floods in Greece: Causes and measures for protection, 5th IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations: Evolution of Technologies from Prehistory to Modern Times, Dead Sea, Jordan, 2019. |
| 9. | Angelakis, A. N., G. Antoniou, K. Voudouris, N. Kazakis, N. Delazios, and N. Dercas, History of floods in Greece: causes and measures for protection, Natural Hazards, 101, 833–852, doi:10.1007/s11069-020-03898-w, 2020. |
| 10. | Koukouvelas, I. K., D. J. W. Piper, D. Katsonopoulou, N. Kontopoulos, S. Verroios, K. Nikolakopoulos, and V. Zygouri, Earthquake-triggered landslides and mudflows: Was this the wave that engulfed Ancient Helike? The Holocene, 30(12), 1653-1668, doi:10.1177/0959683620950389, 2020. |
| 11. | Mazza, A., Waterscape and floods management of Greek Selinus: The Cottone River Valley, Open Archaeology, 7(1), 1066-1090, doi:10.1515/opar-2020-0172, 2021. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Prolegomena, Common Sense and Other Heresies, Selected Papers on Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering by Vít Klemeš (Second edition), edited by C. D. Sellars, xi–xv, Canadian Water Resources Association, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2011.
Remarks:
The Prolegomena have been partly reproduced in the IAHS Newsletter, NL 99, pp. 6-7, April 2011.
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Langousis, Precipitation, Treatise on Water Science, edited by P. Wilderer and S. Uhlenbrook, 2, 27–78, doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53199-5.00027-0, Academic Press, Oxford, 2011.
The study of precipitation has been closely linked to the birth of science, by the turn of the 7th century BC. Yet, it continues to be a fascinating research area, since several aspects of precipitation generation and evolution have not been understood, explained and described satisfactorily. Several problems, contradictions and even fallacies related to the perception and modelling of precipitation still exist. The huge diversity and complexity of precipitation, including its forms, extent, intermittency, intensity, and temporal and spatial distribution, do not allow easy descriptions. For example, while atmospheric thermodynamics may suffice to explain the formation of clouds, it fails to provide a solid framework for accurate deterministic predictions of the intensity and spatial extent of storms. Hence, uncertainty is prominent and its understanding and modelling unavoidably relies on probabilistic, statistical and stochastic descriptions. However, the classical statistical models and methods may not be appropriate for precipitation, which exhibits peculiar behaviours including Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and multifractality. This triggered the development of some of the finest stochastic methodologies to describe these behaviours. Inevitably, because deduction based on deterministic laws becomes problematic, as far as precipitation is concerned, the need for observation of precipitation becomes evident. Modern remote sensing technologies (radars and satellites) have greatly assisted the observation of precipitation over the globe, whereas modern stochastic techniques have made the utilization of traditional raingauge measurements easier and more accurate. This chapter reviews existing knowledge in the area of precipitation. Interest is in the small- and large-scale physical mechanisms that govern the process of precipitation, technologies and methods to estimate precipitation in both space and time, and stochastic approaches to model the variable character of precipitation and assess the distribution of its extremes.
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| 1. | Khalil, B., and J. Adamowski, Record extension for short-gauged water quality parameters using a newly proposed robust version of the line of organic correlation technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 16, 2253-2266, doi: 10.5194/hess-16-2253-2012, 2012. |
| 2. | #Langousis, A. and V. Kaleris, A statistical approach to estimate spatial rainfall averages using point rainfall measurements from a single location and runoff data, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 75-80, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
| 3. | Langousis, A., and V. Kaleris, Theoretical framework to estimate spatial rainfall averages conditional on river discharges and point rainfall measurements from a single location: an application to western Greece, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1241-1263, 10.5194/hess-17-1241-2013, 2013. |
| 4. | #Khalil, B., J. Adamowski and A. Belayneh, Evaluation of the performance of eight record extension techniques under different levels of data contamination: A Monte Carlo study, Proceedings, Annual Conference - Canadian Society for Civil Engineering, 3, 2249-2258, 2013. |
| 5. | Langousis, A., and V. Kaleris, Statistical framework to simulate daily rainfall series conditional on upper-air predictor variables, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/2013WR014936, 2014. |
| 6. | Khalil, B., and J. Adamowski, Comparison of OLS, ANN, KTRL, KTRL2, RLOC, and MOVE as Record-extension techniques for water quality variables, Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 10.1007/s11270-014-1966-1, 2014. |
| 7. | Khalil, B., and J. Adamowski, Evaluation of the performance of eight record-extension techniques under different levels of association, presence of outliers and different sizes of concurrent records: a Monte Carlo study, Water Resources Management, 10.1007/s11269-014-0799-4, 2014. |
| 8. | Kienzler, P., N. Andres, D. Naef-Huber and M. Zappa, Derivation of extreme precipitation and flooding in the catchment of Lake Sihl to improve flood protection in the city of Zurich, Hydrologie Und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 59 (2), 48-58, 10.5675/HyWa_2015,2_1, 2015. |
| 9. | Müller, H. and U. Haberlandt, Temporal Rainfall Disaggregation with a Cascade Model: From Single-Station Disaggregation to Spatial Rainfall, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001195, 04015026, 2015. |
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A web based information system for the inspection of the hydraulic works in Ancient Greece, Ancient Water Technologies, edited by L.W. Mays, 103–114, doi:10.1007/978-90-481-8632-7_6, Springer, Dordrecht, 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/984/1/documents/2010AncientWaterTechnologies_WebSystem.pdf (406 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8632-7_6
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #De Feo, G., P. Laureano, L. W. Mays and A. N. Angelakis, Water supply management technologies in the Ancient Greek and Roman civilizations, Ch. 14 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 351-382, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
N. Evelpidou, N. Mamassis, A. Vassilopoulos, C. Makropoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Flooding in Athens: The Kephisos River flood event of 21-22/10/1994, International Conference on Urban Flood Management, Paris, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4065.5601, UNESCO, 2009.
During the night of the 20th of October 1994, a cold front passed over Greece, provoking heavy precipitation and consequently catastrophic floods in many areas of Greece. In some of the affected areas, the precipitation height was equivalent to 140 mm, while in the center of Athens the respective quantity was more than 140 mm. The Greater Athens area experienced one of the most devastating flood events in years, during which nine deaths were reported along with severe damages in the transportation, telecommunication and energy infrastructures. Dozens of homes and stores flooded, cars totally damaged, three buildings collapsed and hundreds of people trapped in cars and buildings give the outline of the disastrous impacts.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1163/1/documents/Kifissos_Chapter_COST22_v3.pdf (2115 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4065.5601
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kandilioti, G. and C. Makropoulos, Preliminary flood risk assessment: the case of Athens, Nat. Hazards, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9930-5, 2011. |
| 2. | #Hildén, M., R. Dankers, T. Kjeldsen, J. Hannaford, C. Kuhlicke, E. Kuusisto, C. Makropoulos, A. te Linde, F. Ludwig, J. Luther and H. Wolters, Floods – vulnerability, risks and management, A joint report of ETC CCA and ICM, European Environment Agency, 2012. |
| 3. | #Vanneuville, W., B. Werner, R. Uhel, et al., Water Resources in Europe in the Context of Vulnerability, EEA 2012 State of Water Assessment, European Environment Agency, 2012. |
| 4. | Evrenoglou, L. S. A. Partsinevelou, P. Stamatis, A. Lazaris, E. Patsouris, C. Kotampasi and P. Nicolopoulou-Stamati, Children exposure to trace levels of heavy metals at the north zone of Kifissos River, Science of The Total Environment, 443, 650-661, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.11.041, 2013. |
| 5. | Diakakis, M., An inventory of flood events in Athens, Greece, during the last 130 years: Seasonality and spatial distribution, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10.1111/jfr3.12053, 2013. |
| 6. | Diakakis, M., A. Pallikarakis and K. Katsetsiadou, Using a spatio-temporal GIS database to monitor the spatial evolution of urban flooding phenomena: the case of Athens Metropolitan Area in Greece, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 3 (1), 96-109, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, New approaches to estimation of extreme rainfall, 1st Hellenic Conference on Large Dams, Larisa, 2, 433–440, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1116.4400, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, Technical Chamber of Greece, 2008.
The extreme rainfall modeling is essential for the evaluation of the flood risk and the design of spillways. Despite the intense research and the accumulating availability of rainfall data, the uncertainty in the evaluation of the extreme rainfalls, continues to be high. Obviously, this uncertainty has a greater influence to the design of large-scale structures (dam spillways) than to the design of smaller flood control hydraulic works. This paper provides a review of the most recent methods for extreme rainfall estimation and presents their theoretical setting and their results in comparison with more classical methods, based on some applications in the design of hydraulic works in Greece. Finally, a software package (Hydrognomon) that supports the use of the methods is presented.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/888/1/documents/paper_dam.pdf (327 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Older and modern considerations in the design and management of reservoirs, dams and hydropower plants (Solicited), 1st Hellenic Conference on Large Dams, Larisa, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3213.5922, Hellenic Commission on Large Dams, Technical Chamber of Greece, 2008.
Full text:
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Fitting hydrological models on multiple responses using the multiobjective evolutionary annealing simplex approach, Practical hydroinformatics: Computational intelligence and technological developments in water applications, edited by R.J. Abrahart, L. M. See, and D. P. Solomatine, 259–273, doi:10.1007/978-3-540-79881-1_19, Springer, 2008.
Most complex hydrological modelling schemes, when calibrated on a single observed response (e.g. river flow at a point), provide poor predictive capability, due to the fact that the rest of variables of basin response remain practically uncontrolled. Current advances in modelling point out that it is essential to take into account multiple fitting criteria, which correspond to different observed responses or to different aspects of the same response. This can be achieved through multiobjective calibration tools, thus providing a set of solutions rather than a single global optimum. Besides, actual multiobjective optimization methods are rather inefficient, when real-world problems with many criteria and many control variables are involved. In hydrological applications there are some additional issues, due to uncertainties related to the representation of complex processes and the observation errors. The multiobjective evolutionary annealing-simplex (MEAS) method implements an innovative scheme, particularly developed for the optimization of such problems. Its features and capabilities are illustrated by solving a challenging parameter estimation problem, dealing with hydrological modelling and water resources management in a karstic basin in Greece.
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-79881-1_19
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Solomatine, D. L.M. See and R.J. Abrahart, Data-driven modelling: concepts, approaches and experiences, Practical hydroinformatics , ed. by R.J. Abrahart, L. M. See, and D. P. Solomatine, 33-47, Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-540-79881-1_2, 2008. |
| 2. | Pollacco, J. A. P., and B. P. Mohanty, Uncertainties of water fluxes in SVAT models: inverting surface soil moisture and evapotranspiration retrieved from remote sensing, Vadose Zone Journal, 11(3), vzj2011.0167, 2012. |
| 3. | Dumedah, G., Formulation of the evolutionary-based data assimilation and its implementation in hydrological forecasting, Water Resources Management, 26(13), 3853-3870, 2012. |
| 4. | Dumedah, G., and P. Coulibaly, Evaluating forecasting performance for data assimilation methods: the Ensemble Kalman Filter, the Particle Filter, and the Evolutionary-based assimilation, Advances in Water Resources, 60, 47-63, 2013. |
| 5. | Gharari, S., M. Hrachowitz, F. Fenicia, H. Gao, and H. H. G. Savenije, Using expert knowledge to increase realism in environmental system models can dramatically reduce the need for calibration, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4839-4859, doi:10.5194/hess-18-4839-2014, 2014. |
| 6. | Ho, V. H., I. Kougias, and J. H. Kim, Reservoir operation using hybrid optimization algorithms, Global Nest Journal, 17(1), 103-117, 2015. |
| 7. | Tigkas, D., V. Christelis, and G. Tsakiris, Comparative study of evolutionary algorithms for the automatic calibration of the Medbasin-D conceptual hydrological model, Environmental Processes, 3(3), 629–644, doi:10.1007/s40710-016-0147-1, 2016. |
| 8. | Laura, R., L. L. Matthieu, G. Federico, L. M. Nicolas, H. Frédéric, M. Céline, and R. Pierre, Impact of mesoscale spatial variability of climatic inputs and parameters on the hydrological response, Journal of Hydrology, 553, 13-25, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.037, 2017. |
| 9. | Naik, P., S. Aramideh, and A. M. Ardekani, History matching of surfactant-polymer flooding using polynomial chaos expansion, Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 173, 1438-1452, doi:10.1016/j.petrol.2018.09.089, 2019. |
| 10. | Kwakye, S. O., and A. Bárdossy, Hydrological modelling in data-scarce catchments: Black Volta basin in West Africa, SN Applied Sciences, 2, 628, doi:10.1007/s42452-020-2454-4, 2020. |
| 11. | Sun, R., F. Hernández, X. Liang, and H. Yuan, A calibration framework for high-resolution hydrological models using a multiresolution and heterogeneous strategy, 2020. |
| 12. | Monteil, C., F. Zaoui, N. Le Moine, and F. Hendrickx, Multi-objective calibration by combination of stochastic and gradient-like parameter generation rules – the caRamel algorithm, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3189-3209, 10.5194/hess-24-3189-2020, 2020. |
| 13. | Dubois, E., M. Larocque, S. Gagné, and G. Meyzonnat, Simulation of long-term spatiotemporal variations in regional-scale groundwater recharge: Contributions of a water budget approach in southern Quebec, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, doi:10.5194/hess-2021-71, 2021. |
| 14. | #Dubois, E., M. Larocque, S. Gagné, and G. Meyzonnat, Hydrobudget User Guide – Version 1.0, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada, 2021. |
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Physical, social and technological aspects of drought - The Athens example, Natural and Technological Disasters in Europe and Greece, edited by K. Sapountzaki, 61–88, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1640.7289, Gutenberg, Athens, 2007.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/797/1/documents/2007Drought.pdf (497 KB)
N. Mamassis, V. Kanellopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A web based information system for the inspection of the hydraulic works in Ancient Greece, 5th International Symposium on Environmental Hydraulics, Tempe, Arizona, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3475.7362, International Association of Hydraulic Research, 2007.
The ancient civilizations that had prospered on the Greek territory since 3000 BC had a great contribution to philosophy, politics, physical sciences and arts. Several technical works were constructed during that period to support the infrastructure needs of those spiritually developed societies. Particularly, the hydraulic works were very important, because of the: (a) advanced technologies that had been used, (b) high standards of life that served and (c) sustainable water management practices that the designers adopted. These works supported the water supply, the drainage of the lands and the cities, the flood protection, the sanitary facilities and sometimes the use of water for recreational purposes. Several simple (cisterns, wells, aqueducts) or more advanced (dams, tunnels, siphons) hydraulic structures have been found, spread all over the wider Ancient Greek territory. Their presence reveals that ancient Greeks wisely resolved several problems concerning water that modern societies still have to face up. In this study, a web based application is presented, for the inspection of available information about the hydraulics works in Ancient Greece. The application includes the necessary informatics tools to manipulate and analyze the various information types and make the information available on the internet. Information includes technical characteristics of the structures, drawings, maps, texts, papers, studies, photos, videos etc. The main purposes of the application are the easy access to available information and the facilitation of its analysis. The latter can be achieved by using a Database and a Geographical Information System, to perform queries or to make maps.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3475.7362
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stergiouli, M. L., and K. Hadjibiros, The growing water imprint of Athens (Greece) throughout history, Regional Environmental Change, 12 (2), 337-345, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A critical review of probability of extreme rainfall: principles and models, Advances in Urban Flood Management, edited by R. Ashley, S. Garvin, E. Pasche, A. Vassilopoulos, and C. Zevenbergen, 139–166, doi:10.1201/9780203945988.ch7, Taylor and Francis, London, 2007.
Probabilistic modelling of extreme rainfall has a crucial role in flood risk estimation and consequently in the design and management of flood protection works. This is particularly the case for urban floods, where the plethora of flow control sites and the scarcity of flow measurements make the use of rainfall data indispensable. For half a century, the Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model of extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasons and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution, which corresponds to an exponential parent distribution tail. Recently, the applicability of this distribution has been criticized both on theoretical and empirical grounds. Thus, new theoretical arguments based on comparisons of actual and asymptotic extreme value distributions as well as on the principle of maximum entropy indicate that the Extreme Value Type 2 distribution should replace the Gumbel distribution. In addition, several empirical analyses using long rainfall records agree with the new theoretical findings. Furthermore, the empirical analyses show that the Gumbel distribution may significantly underestimate the largest extreme rainfall amounts (albeit its predictions for small return periods of 5-10 years are satisfactory), whereas this distribution would seem as an appropriate model if fewer years of measurements were available (i.e., parts of the long records were used).
Remarks:
In section 5 entitled "Empirical justification of the distribution type of extreme rainfall" the first appearance of the word "underestimates" should be corrected to "overestimates", so that the sentence reads:
"These observations demonstrate how important the correct choice of the theoretical model is and how much the EV1 distribution overestimates the return period of extreme rainfall."
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780203945988.ch7
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Clark, C., Flash floods - the Boltby incident, International Water Power and Dam Construction, 2008. |
| 2. | Sadiq, S. M., and N. H. Safaa, Comparing of standard and recent extreme probable distributions corresponding to Iraqi streams flow, Journal of Engineering and Development, 14 (4), 93-108, 2010. |
| 3. | Gubareva, T. S., Spatial patterns of flood distribution on rivers in temperate zone of the North Hemisphere, Izvestiya Akademii Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, (2), 65-77, 2011. |
| 4. | #Liew, S. C., S. V. Raghavan, S.-Y. Liong and R. Sanders, Development of intensity-duration-frequency curves: incorporating climate change projection, Proc. 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, 2012. |
| 5. | #Liew, S. L., S.-Y. Liong and S. V. Raghavan, A novel approach, using regional climate model, to derive present and future IDF curves for data scarce sites, Willis Research Network, 2012. |
| 6. | Shahzadi, A., A. S. Akhter and B. Saf, Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall in monsoon region of Pakistan using L-moments, Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, 9 (1), 111-136, 2013. |
| 7. | Veneziano, D., and S. Yoon, Rainfall extremes, excesses, and IDF curves: A unified asymptotic framework and new non‐asymptotic results based on multifractal measures, Water Resources Research, 10.1002/wrcr.20352, 2013. |
| 8. | Liew, S. C., S. V. Raghavan and S.-Y. Liong, How to construct future IDF curves, under changing climate, for sites with scarce rainfall records?, Hydrological Processes, 10.1002/hyp.9839, 2013. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. N. Angelakis, Agricultural hydraulic works in ancient Greece, Encyclopedia of Water Science, Second Edition, edited by S. W. Trimble, 24–27, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2582.8084, CRC Press, 2007.
Agricultural development requires hydraulic works including flood protection of agricultural areas, land reclamation, and drainage. In addition, in a Mediterranean climate, irrigation of crops is necessary to sustain agricultural production and, at the same time, water storage projects are necessary to remedy the scarcity of water resources during the irrigation period. In modern Greece, irrigation is responsible for more than 85% of the water consumption and, to provide this quantity, several large hydraulic works have been built. Similarly, in ancient times, Greeks had to develop technological means to capture, store, and convey water and simultaneously to make agricultural areas productive and protect them from flooding. Agricultural developments in Greece, traced to the Minoan and Mycenaean states, were responsible for the increase of agricultural productivity, the growth of large populations, and the economic progress that led to the creation of classical civilization. Some examples of agricultural hydraulic projects of the ancient times chronologically extending from the Mycenaean to the Hellenistic period are discussed in this article.
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2582.8084
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Karamanos, A., and S. Aggelides, Participatory water management and cultural heritage in Greece, Participatory Water Saving Management and Water Cultural Heritage, Proc. 1st WASAMED Workshop, Series B, no 48, 133-141, 2004. |
| 2. | Hoys, A.M.V., The importance of water in the ancient civilizations: Greece, Tecnologia del Agua, 26(276), 92-106, 2006. |
| 3. | #Tzanakakis, V.E., N.V., Paranychianakis and A.N. Angelakis, Evolution of land treatment practice for the management of wastes, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 71-79, 2006. |
| 4. | Tzanakakis, V.E., N.V. Paranychianakis and A.N. Angelakis, Soil as a wastewater treatment system: historical development, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7(1), 67-75, 2007. |
| 5. | #Sauvé, J.-M., Éditorial, L’eau et son droi, Conseil d'État, France, 2010. |
| 6. | #Voudouris, K., Diachronic evolution of water supply in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ch. 4 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 77-89, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
| 7. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. G. Dialynas and V. Despotakis, Evolution of water supply technologies through the centuries in Crete, Greece, Ch. 9 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 227-258, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
| 8. | #Mithen, S., Thirst for Water and Power in the Ancient World, 384 pp., Harvard University Press, 2012. |
| 9. | Voudouris, K. S., Y. Christodoulakos, F. Steiakakis and A. N. Angelakis, Hydrogeological characteristics of Hellenic aqueducts-like Qanats, Water, 5, 1326-1345, 2013. |
| 10. | #Angelakis, A. Ν., Evolution of Fountains through the Centuries in Crete, Hellas, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 591-604, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
Z. Theocharis, C. Memos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Wave height background errors simulation and forecasting via stochastic methods in deep and intermediate waters, Proceedings of the 30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, San Diego, 1, 578–589, doi:10.1142/9789812709554_0050, 2006.
Wave forecasting is accomplished today via numerical models. In this work we apply stochastic techniques using actual measurements to improve wave height forecast in real time. Application of these techniques in four locations of the Aegean Sea results in significant improvement of the forecast in the time domain retaining the same pattern of modifications, suggesting, thus, this method for operational use in deep and intermediate waters. The improvement is obtained by four regression models, which take into account the variable of the significant wave height as measured and forecasted by the model. Space-wise extension of the method was also investigated and applied to the Aegean Sea and the Indian Ocean, where its performance was remarkable.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/748/1/documents/2006ICCEWaveHeight.pdf (361 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812709554_0050
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Rusu, L., and C. GuedesSoares, Local data assimilation scheme for wave predictions close to the Portuguese ports, Journal of Operational Oceanography, 7 (2), 45-57, 2014. |
Z. Theocharis, C. Memos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Wave forecasting errors in time and space, 4th National Conference of Harbour Works, Athens, 51–60, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1468.6967, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2006.
In recent years, data assimilation and artificial neural network techniques have been used in a number of wave height forecast improvement efforts. In this work we present the application of linear and non-linear stochastic techniques to show that WAM background errors can be reasonably predicted by using a limited number of buoy observations. Re-run of the wave model is not required. The first assessment, conducted in the Aegean Sea, refers to the improvement of the significant wave height prediction in deep water. The results were checked against four pilot-study monitoring stations. The assessment had a two-fold scope. First, a study was conducted in a time domain fashion using four stochastic models whose explanatory variables are the WAM prediction and the measured wave height at previous steps. Two bivariate linear models, a trivariate linear model and two versions of a non-linear bivariate model were used and resulted in a significant forecast improvement, irrespectively of the application time period and of the location of the prediction. The coefficients of determination increased from approximately 0.7 (WAM) to over 0.9, suggesting that this method may be suitable for operational use. The second part of the application consists of a space-wise study including spatial stochastic modelling and wave information transfer aiming at expanding the improvement described above in space and especially in coastal regions. We found that wind information can help to improve the said prediction in time and space without using measurements or satellite observations, except for a calibration period. The applied stochastic methods show a somehow limited but steady improvement of the wave height prediction. To avoid the Aegean Sea complexity and peculiarity, further examination was conducted in two locations of the Indian Ocean. A nonlinear transformation in the stochastic models which is related to the swell content optimizes the improvement of the wave height prediction in intermediate waters by using the offshore measurement. The improvement of the wave height prediction yields high coefficients of determination (~0.9).
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/747/1/documents/2006HarbourWorksWaveHeight.pdf (320 KB)
G Cox, C. Smythe, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The Hurst phenomenon and Monte Carlo simulation to forecast reliability of an Australian reservoir, Proceedings of the 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Launceston, Australia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2517.2721, Engineers Australia, 2006.
The issue of water supply reliability from Australian reservoirs has recently been the subject of increased scientific and media debate. 'Drought Persistence' or prolonged sequences of low inflows has driven reservoirs to seriously low levels. Statistical justification for these persistent droughts is often difficult to find if classical statistics and typical stochastic approaches are used. Therefore persistent droughts may be overlooked in reliability of supply calculations. This can result in dramatically underestimated risk of failure. The Hurst phenomenon offers a consistent basis to remedy this and the Hurst coefficient can be a simple measure to quantify the amount of persistence in a time series. For this study, the Hurst coefficient was calculated for the historical flow data of the Boyne River, Queensland. Based on the coefficient and the probability distribution of the historical inflow data, synthetic reservoir inflow sequences were generated preserving the persistence. Using this data and Monte Carlo simulation, a tool was developed to forecast the reliability of supply into the future from the current storage level. This is used for planning risk reduction strategies by providing valuable information such as the lead-time available to implement contingencies.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/739/1/documents/2006AustraliaConfCox.pdf (1000 KB)
See also: http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=502729918540525;res=IELENG
A. N. Angelakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and L.W. Mays, Water and wastewater technologies in ancient Civilizations: Conclusions, Proceedings of the 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, edited by A. N. Angelakis and D. Koutsoyiannis, Iraklio, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.5138.7120, International Water Association, 2006.
Full text:
See also: http://www.iwahq.org/templates/ld_templates/layout_633184.aspx?ObjectId=656409
A. N. Angelakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water and wastewater technologies in ancient Civilizations: Prolegomena, Proceedings of the 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, edited by A. N. Angelakis and D. Koutsoyiannis, Iraklio, i–iii, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2091.2887, International Water Association, 2006.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/736/1/documents/2006CreteProlegomena.pdf (151 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Tegos, Logical and illogical exegeses of hydrometeorological phenomena in ancient Greece, Proceedings of the 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, edited by A. N. Angelakis and D. Koutsoyiannis, Iraklio, 135–143, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4188.4408, International Water Association, 2006.
Technological applications aiming at the exploitation of the natural sources appear in all ancient civilizations. The unique phenomenon in the ancient Greek civilization is that technological needs triggered physical explanations of the natural phenomena and behaviours, thus enabling the foundation of philosophy and science. Among these, the study of hydrometeorological phenomena had a major role. This study begins with the Ionian philosophers in the seventh century BC, continues in classical Athens in the fifth and fourth centuries BC, and advances and expands through the entire Greek world up to the end of Hellenistic period, when Romans conquered Greece. Many of the theories developed in the course of ancient Greek civilization are erroneous according to modern views. However, many elements in Greek exegeses and interpretations of various hydrometeorological processes, such as the evaporation and condensation of vapour, the creation of clouds, hail, snow and rainfall and the evolution of hydrological cycle, are impressive even today.
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K. Hadjibiros, A. Katsiri, A. Andreadakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Stamou, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and G.-F. Sargentis, Multi-criteria reservoir water management, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (9CEST), Rhodes, A, 535–543, Department of Environmental Studies, University of the Aegean, 2005.
The Plastiras dam was constructed in the late 1950s mainly for electric power production, but it has also partially covered irrigation needs and water supply of the plain of Thessaly. Later, the site has been designated as an environment conservation zone because of ecological and landscape values, while tourist activities have been developed around the reservoir. Irrigation of agricultural land, hydroelectric production, drinkable water supply, tourism, lake water quality and scenery conservation have evidently been conflicting targets for many years. Good management would require a multi-criteria decision making. Historical data show that the irregular water release has resulted in a great annual fluctuation of the reservoir water level. This situation could be improved by a rational management of abstractions. Apparently, higher release leads simultaneously to more power production and to irrigation of a larger agricultural land. Moreover, demands for electricity and for irrigation are partially competing to each other, due to different optimal time schedules of releases. On the other hand, higher water release leads to lower water level in the reservoir and, therefore, it decreases the beauty of the scenery and deteriorates the trophic state of the lake. Such degradation affects the tourist potential as well as the quality of drinking water supplied by the reservoir. A multi-criteria approach uses different scenarios for the minimum permissible water level of the reservoir, if a constant annual release is applied. The minimum level concept is a simple and functional tool, because it is easily understood by people, certified and incorporated into regulations. The quantity of water that would be yearly available is a function of the minimum level allowed. The water quality depends upon the trophic state of the lake, mainly the concentration of chlorophyll-a, which determines the state of eutrophication and is estimated by water quality simulation models, taking into account pollutant loads such as nitrogen and phosphorus. The value of the landscape is much depending on the water level of the lake, because for lower levels a dead-zone appears between the surface of the water and the surrounding vegetation. When this dead zone is large, it seems lifeless and the lake appears partially empty. Quantification of this visual effect is not easy, but it is possible to establish a correspondence between the aesthetic assessment of the scenery and the minimum allowed reservoir level. Using results from hydrological analysis, water quality models and landscape evaluation, it seems possible to construct a multi-criterion table with different criteria described against alternatives and with a plot of three relative indices against the minimum level allowed. However, decision making has to take into account the fact that comparison or merging of indices corresponding to different criteria analysis encompasses a degree of arbitrariness. More objective decisions would be possible if different benefits and costs were measured in a common unit. Moreover, management will be sensitive to different social pressures.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/682/1/documents/2005CestRhodesPlastiras.pdf (141 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stamou, A.I., K. Hadjibiros, A. Andreadakis and A. Katsiri, Establishing minimum water level for Plastiras reservoir (Greece) combining water quality modelling with landscape aesthetics, Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 12(3), 157-170, 2007. |
| 2. | #Sargentis G. F., V. Symeonidis, and N. Symeonidis, Rules and methods for the development of a prototype landscape (Almyro) in north Evia by the creation of a thematic park, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST2011), Rhodes, Greece, 2011. |
A. N. Angelakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Wastewater management in the Minoan civilization, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Ancient Greek Technology, 551–556, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3270.9367, Technical Chamber of Greece, Athens, 2005.
Archaeological and other evidence indicate that, during the Middle Bronze Age, advanced water management and sanitary techniques were practised in Minoan settlements. These include the construction and use of bathrooms and other sanitary and purgatory facilities, as well as wastewater and storm sewer systems. The hydraulic and architectural function of sewer systems in palaces and cities are regarded as one of the salient characteristics of the Minoan civilization. These systems were so advanced that can be compared with the modern systems, which were established only in the second half of the 19th century in European and American cities.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/665/1/documents/2005SynedEMAETMinoanSewers.pdf (1084 KB)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3270.9367
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Panagiotakis, N., Water management in the Pediada region in Central Crete, Greece, through time, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 271-280, 2006. |
| 2. | #Antoniou, G. P., G. Lyberatos, E. I. Kanetaki, A. Kaiafa, K. Voudouris and A. N. Angelakis, History of urban wastewater and stormwater sanitation technologies in Hellas, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, 99-146, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrologic persistence and the Hurst phenomenon, Water Encyclopedia, Vol. 4, Surface and Agricultural Water, edited by J. H. Lehr and J. Keeley, 210–221, doi:10.1002/047147844X.sw434, Wiley, New York, 2005.
Unlike common random series like those observed, for example, in games of chance, hydrologic (and other geophysical) time series have some structure, that is, consecutive values of hydrologic time series depend on each other. A special kind of dependence observed on large timescales was discovered by Hurst half a century ago and has been known by several names such as long-range dependence, long-term persistence, or simply the Hurst phenomenon. Since then, it has been verified that this behaviour is almost omnipresent in several processes in nature (e.g., hydrology), technology (e.g., computer networks), and society (e.g., economics). The consequences of this behavior are very significant, because it increases dramatically the uncertainty of the related processes. However, even today its importance and its consequences are not widely understood or are ignored, its nature is regarded as difficult to understand, and its reproduction in hydrologic simulation is considered a hard task or not necessary. This article shows that the Hurst phenomenon can have an easy explanation and easy stochastic representation and that simple algorithms can generate time series exhibiting long-term persistence.
Remarks:
Alternative names for Hurst phenomenon are Hurst effect, Joseph effect, Long term persistence, Long range dependence, Scaling behaviour (in time), Multi-scale fluctuation, etc.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/047147844X.sw434
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Bloschl, G., and E. Zehe, On hydrological predictability, Hydrological Processes, 19(19), 3923-3929, 2005. |
| 2. | M. Mudelsee, Long memory of rivers from spatial aggregation, Water Resources Research, 43(1), W01202, 2007. |
| 3. | #McKitrick, R., C. Essex, I. Clark, J. D'Aleo, O. Kärner, R. Willson, C. Idso, W. Kininmonth and M. Khandekar, Critical Topics in Global Warming, 124 pp., Fraser Institute, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 2009. |
| 4. | #Mudelsee, M., Climate Time Series Analysis: Classical Statistical and Bootstrap Methods, 473 pp., Springer, Dordrecht, 2010. |
| 5. | Szolgayova, E., G. Laaha, G. Blöschl and C. Bucher, Factors influencing long range dependence in streamflow of European rivers, Hydrological Processes, 28 (4), 1573-1586, 2014. |
| 6. | Odongo, V.O., C. van der Tol, P.R. van Oel, F.M. Meins, R. Becht, J. Onyando and Z.B. Su, Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya, Hydrological Processes, 29 (15), 3276-3293, 10.1002/hyp.10443, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic simulation of hydrosystems, Water Encyclopedia, Vol. 4, Surface and Agricultural Water, edited by J. H. Lehr and J. Keeley, 421–430, doi:10.1002/047147844X.sw913, Wiley, New York, 2005.
Due to their complexity, hydrosystems, including water resource systems, flood management systems, and hydropower systems are frequently studied using stochastic simulation. A generalized solution procedure for hydrosystems problems, including systems identification, modeling and forecasting, hydrologic design, water resources management, and flood management, is discussed. Emphasis is given on the stochastic representation of hydrologic processes, which have a dominant role in hydrosystems. Peculiarities of hydrologic and other geophysical processes (seasonality, long-term persistence, intermittency, skewness, spatial variability) gave rise to substantial research that resulted in numerous stochastic tools appropriate for applications in hydrosystems. Four examples of such tools are discussed: (1) the multivariate periodic autoregressive model of order 1 [PAR(1)], which reproduces seasonality and skewness but not long-term persistence;(2) a generalized multivariate stationary model that reproduces all kinds of persistence and simultaneously skewness but not seasonality; (3) a combination of the previous two cases in a multivariate disaggregation framework that can respect almost all peculiarities except intermittency; and (4) the Bartlett-Lewis process that is appropriate for modeling rainfall and emphasizes its intermittent character on a fine time scale.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/047147844X.sw913
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
D. Koutsoyiannis, Reliability concepts in reservoir design, Water Encyclopedia, Vol. 4, Surface and Agricultural Water, edited by J. H. Lehr and J. Keeley, 259–265, doi:10.1002/047147844X.sw776, Wiley, New York, 2005.
A reservoir's function is to regulate natural inflows, which vary irregularly, to provide outflows at a more regular rate that is determined by water demand for one or more uses (water supply, irrigation, hydropower), temporarily storing the surplus, when inflows exceed outflows. Reservoir reliability is defined as the probability that the reservoir will perform the required function, i.e. provide the outflow required to satisfy the water demand, at a specified period of time under stated conditions. The traditional reservoir design procedures are more commonly based on empirical approaches. It is shown, however, that the reliability concept is a more rational basis, and provides easy and accurate computational procedures, for reservoir design and operation. Under some simplified assumptions, a simple explicit expression relating reservoir size, yield and reliability is extracted. This expression can be used for preliminary stages of a reservoir design. For more detailed and accurate studies, a generalized solution procedure based on stochastic simulation of inputs is outlined.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/047147844X.sw776
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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| 1. | Rittima, A., and V. Vudhivanich, Reliability based multireservoir system operation for Mae Klong River Basin, Kasetsart Journal - Natural Science, 40(3), 809-823, 2006. |
| 2. | Hamed, K., On the implementation of Prabhu's exact solution of the stochastic reservoir equation, Advances in Water Resources, 32 (4), 594-606, 2009. |
| 3. | Srivastav, R. K., K. Srinivasan and K. P. Sudheer, Simulation-optimization framework for multi-season hybrid stochastic models, Journal of Hydrology, 404 (3-4), 209-225, 2011. |
| 4. | #Mutesi, B., A. Rugumayo and M. Kizza, Analysis of storage-estimation techniques for optimal rainwater reservoir sizing, Second International Conference on Advances in Engineering and Technology, Makerere University, Uganda, 2011. |
| 5. | Nassopoulos, H., P. Dumas and S. Hallegatte, Adaptation to an uncertain climate change: cost benefit analysis and robust decision making for dam dimensioning, Climatic Change, 114 (3-4), 497-508, 2012. |
| 6. | Hamed, K. H., A probabilistic approach to calculating the reliability of over-year storage reservoirs with persistent Gaussian inflow, Journal of Hydrology, 448-449, 93-99, 2012. |
| 7. | Campos, J. N.B., F. A. Souza Filho and H. V.C. Lima, Risks and uncertainties in reservoir yield in highly variable intermittent rivers: Case of the Castanhão Reservoir in semi-arid Brazil, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1184-1195, 2014. |
| 8. | #Hamed, K. H., Stochastic reservoir analysis, Handbook of Engineering Hydrology - Fundamentals and Applications (ed. by S. Eslamian), Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 531-548, 2014. |
| 9. | Celeste, A.B., Reservoir design optimization incorporating performance indices, Water Resources Management. 29 (12), 4305-4318, 10.1007/s11269-015-1061-4, 2015. |
N. Mamassis, A. Christofides, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrometeorological data acquisition, management and analysis for the Athens water supply system, BALWOIS Conference on Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support, Ochrid, FYROM, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1845.5284, Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning FYROM, Skopie, 2004.
A hydrolometeorological telemetric network has been installed, in the framework of a decision support system (DSS) for the management of the Athens water resource system, that extends over an area of 5000 km2. In this paper the telemetric network and data management and analysis are described. The information collected includes meteorological data, reservoir water levels and stream flow data. The data acquisition procedure is executed periodically, by a computer at the data centre and all data is stored in the database for immediate use by other subsystems of the DSS. Some data by conventional instruments are also stored for comparison and tests. A software application (Hydrognomon) is used for management and analysis of the various types of raw data and for producing a large number of derivative time series. The whole procedure has been standardised for easy implementation in other similar networks.
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1845.5284
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Grammatokogiannis, A., N. Mamassis, E. Baltas and M. Mimikou, A meteorological telemetric network for monitoring of the Athens wider Area, Proc. 9th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Rhodes, Greece, 2005. |
| 2. | Meyer, M.L., and G.M. Huey, Telemetric system for hydrology and water quality monitoring in watersheds of northern New Mexico, USA, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 116(1-3), 9-19, 2006. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Exploration of long records of extreme rainfall and design rainfall inferences, Hydrology: Science and Practice for the 21st Century, edited by B. Webb, N. Arnell, C. Onof, N. MacIntire, R. Gurney, and C. Kirby, London, I, 148–157, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1190.1681, British Hydrological Society, 2004.
Long records of annual maximum daily rainfall from Europe and the USA, with lengths exceeding 100 years, are statistically analysed to investigate the adequacy of typical extreme value distributions for extreme rainfall and their effect on design rainfall amounts. Statistical analyses show that the conventionally employed Extreme Value Type I (EV1 or Gumbel) distribution may yield inappropriate extrapolations for the upper tail of distribution function of extreme rainfall, whereas this distribution would seem as an appropriate model if fewer years of measurements were available (i.e., parts of the long records were used). In contrast, the extreme value type II (EV2) distribution appears to be suitable for the examined long series. Thus, the results of the analyses agree with a recently expressed scepticism about the EV1 distribution which tends to underestimate the largest extreme rainfall amounts.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1190.1681
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Benkhaled, A., Distributions statistiques des pluies maximales annuelles dans la region du Cheliff, Comparaison des techniques et des resultats [Statistical distributions of annual maximum rainfalls depths in the area of Cheliff, Comparison of techniques and results], Courrier du Savoir, 8, 83-91, 2007. |
| 2. | Neville, S. E., M. J. Palmer and M. P. Wand, Generalized extreme value additive model analysis via mean field variational Bayes, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 53, 305–330, 2011. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution for modelling extreme rainfall (solicited), Hydrological Risk: recent advances in peak river flow modelling, prediction and real-time forecasting. Assessment of the impacts of land-use and climate changes, edited by A. Brath, A. Montanari, and E. Toth, Bologna, 303–319, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3811.6080, Editoriale Bios, Castrolibero, Italy, 2004.
For half a century, the Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model for quantifying risk associated with extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasons and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution. These arguments are examined thoroughly in this work and are put into question. Moreover, it is shown that the Gumbel distribution may misjudge the hydrological risk as it underestimates seriously the largest extreme rainfall amounts. Besides, it is shown that the three-parameter extreme value distribution of type II is a more consistent alternative and it is discussed how this distribution can be applied even with short hydrological records.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3811.6080
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| 1. | Mohymont, B., G.R. Demaree and D.N. Faka, Establishment of IDF-curves for precipitation in the tropical area of Central Africa - comparison of techniques and results, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 4(3), 375-387, 2004. |
| 2. | #Jewson, S., A. Brix and C. Ziehmann, Weather Derivative Valuation: The Meteorological, Statistical, Financial and Mathematical Foundations, Cambridge University Press, 2005. |
| 3. | Mohymont, B., and G.R. Demaree, Intensity-duration-frequency curves for precipitation at Yangambi, Congo, derived by means of various models of Montana type, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51(2), 239-253, 2006. |
| 4. | Luna, M.Y., A. Morata, C. Almarza and M.L. Martin, The use of GIS to evaluate and map extreme maximum and minimum temperatures in Spain, Meteorological Applications, 13(04), 385-392, 2006. |
| 5. | El Morjanil, Z.E.A., S. Ebener, J. Boos, E. Abdel Ghaffar and A. Musani, Modelling the spatial distribution of five natural hazards in the context of the WHO/EMRO Atlas of Disaster Risk ..., Intern. J. Health Geographics, 6, 8, 1-18, 2007. |
| 6. | Saf, B, F. Dikbas and M. Yasar, Determination of regional frequency distributions of floods in West Mediterranean river basins in Turkey, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 16(10), 1300-1308, 2007. |
| 7. | Melice, J.L., and C.J.C. Reason, Return period of extreme rainfall at George, South Africa South African Journal of Science, 103(11-12), 499-501, 2007. |
| 8. | Benkhaled, A., Distributions statistiques des pluies maximales annuelles dans la region du Cheliff, Comparaison des techniques et des resultats [Statistical distributions of annual maximum rainfalls depths in the area of Cheliff, Comparison of techniques and results], Courrier du Savoir, 8, 83-91, 2007. |
| 9. | #Erdi, P., Complexity Explained, Springer, 2008. |
| 10. | El Adlouni, S., B. Bobee and T.B.M.J. Ouarda, On the tails of extreme event distributions in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 355(1-4), 2008. |
| 11. | Aryal, G. R., and C. P. Tsokos, On the transmuted extreme value distribution with application, Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods & Applications, 71(12), E1401-E1407, 2009. |
| 12. | Benabdesselam, T., and Y. Hammar, Estimation de la Réponse hydrologique d’un bassin versant urbanisé, European Journal of Scientific Research, 29 (3), 334-348, 2009. |
| 13. | Zin, W. Z. W., A. A. Jemain and K. Ibrahim, The best fitting distribution of annual maximum rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on methods of L-moment and LQ-moment, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96 (3-4), 337-344, 2009. |
| 14. | Zawiah, W. Z. W., A. A. Jemain, K. Ibrahim, J. Suhaila and M. D. Sayang, A comparative study of extreme rainfall in peninsular Malaysia with reference to partial duration and annual extreme series, Sains Malaysiana, 38(5)(): 751–760, 2009. |
| 15. | Ceresetti, D., G. Molinié, and J.-D. Creutin, Scaling properties of heavy rainfall at short duration: A regional analysis, Water Resour. Res., 46, W09531, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008603, 2010. |
| 16. | Fernando, W. C. D. K., and S. S. Wickramasuriya, The hydro-meteorological estimation of probable maximum precipitation under varying scenarios in Sri Lanka, International Journal of Climatology, 31 (5), 668-676, 2011. |
| 17. | Elsebaie, I. H., Developing rainfall intensity–duration–frequency relationship for two regions in Saudi Arabia, Journal of King Saud University - Engineering Sciences, doi: 10.1016/j.jksues.2011.06.001, 2011. |
| 18. | Lozano, J. G., V. V. Tristán, M. R. Rodríguez, M. De Jesús Aguirre Bortoni, J. M. P. De La Cruz and H. T. S. Espinoza, Return periods of torrential rains for the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico, Investigaciones Geograficas, 76, 20-33, 2011. |
| 19. | Brandimarte, L., and G. Di Baldassarre, Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling, Hydrology Research, 43 (6), 753-761, 2012. |
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| 22. | Bossé, B., B. Bussière, R. Hakkou, A. Maqsoud and M. Benzaazoua, Assessment of phosphate limestone wastes as a component of a store-and-release cover in a semiarid climate, Mine Water and the Environment, 10.1007/s10230-013-0225-9, 2013. |
| 23. | Benkhaled, A., H. Higgins, F. Chebana and A. Necir, Frequency analysis of annual maximum suspended sediment concentrations in Abiod wadi, Biskra (Algeria), Hydrological Processes, 28 (12), 3841-3854, 2014. |
| 24. | Boucefiane, A., M. Meddi, J. P. Laborde and S. Eslamian, Rainfall frequency analysis using extreme values distributions in the steppe region of western Algeria, International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 4 (4), 348-367, 2014. |
| 25. | Fuentes Mariles, O.A., M.L. Arganis Juárez, R. Domínguez Mora, G.E. Fuentes Mariles and K. Rodríguez Vázquez, Maximization of the likelihood function of probability distributions using genetic algorithms [Maximización de la función de verosimilitud de distribuciones de probabilidad usando algoritmos genéticos], Ingeniería del Agua, 19 (1), 17-29, 2015. |
A. Tsouni, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Contoes, N. Mamassis, and P. Elias, Estimation of actual evapotranspiration by remote sensing: Application in Thessalia plain, Greece, Proceedings of the International Conference "Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing: Environmental Applications", Volos, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3025.1763, 2003.
As evapotranspiration is one of the main components of hydrologic cycle, its estimation is very important. Remote sensing technologies can assist to improve the estimation accuracy also providing means for computing evapotranspiration geographical distribution. In the present study, the daily actual evapotranspiration was calculated for 21 days uniformly distributed during the 2001 summer season over Thessaly plain. Three different methods were accordingly adapted and applied: the remote-sensing methods by Granger (Granger, 2000) and Carlson-Buffum (Carlson & Buffum, 1989) using satellite data together with ground meteorological measurements and an adapted FAO Penman-Monteith method, used as reference method. Satellite data, following the necessary processing, were used in conjunction with surface data from the three closest meteorological stations. All three methods, following their appropriate adaptation, exploit visible channels 1 and 2 of NOAA-AVHRR satellite images to calculate albedo and NDVI and infrared channels 4 and 5 to calculate surface temperature. FAO Penman-Monteith and Granger methods require mean surface temperatures, so NOAA-15 satellite images were used. For Carlson-Buffum method a combination of NOAA-14 and NOAA-15 satellite images was used, since the average rate of surface temperature rise during the morning is required. The results of the application are encouraging. Both Carlson-Buffum and Granger methods follow in general the variations of the FAO Penman-Monteith method. However, they underestimate evapotranspiration during the days with relatively high wind speed.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/798/1/documents/2003GISConfThessalyEvapor.pdf (357 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Experience from the development of decision support systems for the management of large-scale hydrosystems of Greece, Proceedings of the Workshop "Water Resources Studies in Cyprus", edited by E. Sidiropoulos and I. Iakovidis, Nikosia, 159–180, Water Development Department of Cyprus, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 2003.
Decision support systems (DSS), in combination with human judgment and experience, may guide to rational decisions in a variety of ill-structured technological problems. Optimal management of water recourse systems constitutes a typical field for application of DSS. The complexity of the water resource management raises the need for a holistic approach, based on systems theory and making use of advanced mathematical techniques. The paper presents the experience gained in developing of DSS for the management of large-scale hydrosystems in Greece. Specifically, it describes the route to an integrated methodological framework, comprising innovative models for stochastic analysis, simulation and optimisation. This framework, which is progressively improved and evolved, has been recently implemented operationally for the support of the supervision and management of the exceptionally complex water supply system of Athens. In the near future, the generalisation and enhancement of the mathematical models and computer tools is scheduled, in order to make a comprehensive tool for the sustainable management of hydrosystems of a wide range of scales.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Rainfall disaggregation methods: Theory and applications (invited), Proceedings, Workshop on Statistical and Mathematical Methods for Hydrological Analysis, edited by D. Piccolo and L. Ubertini, Rome, 1–23, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2840.8564, Università di Roma "La Sapienza", 2003.
A large variety of disaggregation methods that have appeared in hydrological literature and used in hydrological applications are reviewed with emphasis in rainfall modelling. The general-purpose stochastic disaggregation models, which have been used at several applications including rainfall modelling but at time scales not finer than monthly, are summarised. The specialised models for rainfall disaggregation, in particular at fine time scales, are examined in more detail. A special disaggregation technique, which, instead of using simultaneously both coarser and finer time scales in one mathematical expression, couples two independent stochastic models, one at each time scale, is further analysed. Two examples of implementing this technique to fine scale rainfall disaggregation are given. In the first case the implementation results in a single variate rainfall disaggregation model (Hyetos) based on the Bartlett-Lewis process. In the second case it results in a multivariate rainfall disaggregation model (MuDRain). These two implementations are demonstrated with results from real world applications.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2840.8564
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Segond, M.-L., C. Onof and H.S. Wheater, Spatial-temporal disaggregation of daily rainfall from a generalized linear model, Journal of Hydrology, 331(3-4), 674-689, 2006. |
| 2. | Wang, Q.J., and R.J. Nathan, A method for coupling daily and monthly time scales in stochastic generation of rainfall series, Journal of Hydrology, 346(3-4), 122-130, 2007. |
| 3. | Zhang, J., R.R. Murch, M.A. Ross, A.R. Ganguly and M. Nachabe, Evaluation of statistical rainfall disaggregation methods using rain-gauge information for West-Central Florida, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 13 (12), 1158-1169, 2008. |
| 4. | Knoesen, D., and J. Smithers, The development and assessment of a daily rainfall disaggregation model for South Africa, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(2), 217-233, 2009. |
| 5. | Rupp, D. E., R. F. Keim, M. Ossiander, M. Brugnach and J. S. Selker, Time scale and intensity dependency in multiplicative cascades for temporal rainfall disaggregation, Water Resources Research, 45, W07409, doi:10.1029/2008WR007321, 2009. |
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. N. Angelakis, Hydrologic and hydraulic science and technology in ancient Greece, The Encyclopedia of Water Science, edited by B. A. Stewart and T. Howell, 415–417, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1333.5282, Dekker, New York, 2003.
The approach typically followed in problem solving today is represented by the sequence Understanding - Data - Application, in this order. However, the historical evolution in the development of water science and technology (and other scientific and technological fields) followed the reverse order: application preceded understanding. Thus, technological application in water resources has started in Greece as early as in ca. 2000 BC. Specifically, in the Minoan civilization (see the entry on Urban Water Engineering and Management in Ancient Greek Times) and later in the Mycenaean civilization several remarkably advanced technologies have been applied for water resources exploitation. Much later, around 600 BC, Greek philosophers developed the first in history scientific views of natural phenomena. In these, hydrological and meteorological had a major role, given that water was considered by the Ionic school of philosophy as the primary substance from which all things were derived. Even later, during the Hellenistic period, significant developments were done in hydraulics, which along with progress in mathematics allowed the invention of advanced instruments and devices, like the Archimedes's water screw pump.
Remarks:
Also published in Encyclopedia of Water Science, Second Edition, edited by S. W. Trimble, 28-30, 2007.
Related works:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1333.5282
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 5. | #Diamanti, M., and I.K. Kalavrouziotis, Water resources of Aitolia and Akarnania, Greece, and their contribution ..., Proc. 1st IWA Intern. Symp. on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 551-559, 2006. |
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| 8. | Angelakis, A.N., Y.M. Savvakis and G. Charalampakis, Aqueducts during the Minoan Era, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7(1), 95-101, 2007. |
| 9. | Di Leo, A., and M. Tallini, Irrigation, groundwater exploitation and cult of water in the rural settlements of Sabina, Central Italy, in Roman times, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7(1), 191-199, 2007. |
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| 15. | Díaz Álvarez, A., and M. Salgot De Marcay, Environmental, sociological and economic evaluation of the use of non conventional water resources, Tecnologia del Agua, 32 (340), 28-41, 2012. |
| 16. | De Feo, G., A. N. Angelakis, G. P. Antoniou, F. El-Gohary, B. Haut, C. W. Passchier and X. Y. Zheng, Historical and technical notes on aqueducts from prehistoric to medieval times, Water, 5, 1996-2025, 2013. |
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| 18. | #Angelakis, A. Ν., Evolution of Fountains through the Centuries in Crete, Hellas, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 591-604, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
| 19. | #Yannopoulos, S. I., G. Lyberatos, A. N. Angelakis and N. Theodossiou, Water pumps through the Ages, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 615-26, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
| 20. | Paranychianakis, N. V., M. Salgot, S. A. Snyder and A. N. Angelakis, Water reuse in EU-states: Necessity for uniform criteria to mitigate human and environmental risks, Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1080/10643389.2014.955629, 2014. |
| 21. | Antoniou, G., N. Kathijotes, D. S. Spyridakis and A. N. Angelakis, Historical development of technologies for water resources management and rainwater harvesting in the Hellenic civilizations, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 30 (4), 680-693, 2014. |
| 22. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. Kavoulaki and E. G. Dialynas, Sanitation and wastewater technologies in Minoan Era, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
| 23. | #Antoniou, G. P., G. Lyberatos, E. I. Kanetaki, A. Kaiafa, K. Voudouris and A. N. Angelakis, History of urban wastewater and stormwater sanitation technologies in Hellas, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, 99-146, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
| 24. | #Goldsmith, H., The Long-Run Evolution of Infrastructure Services, CESifo Working Paper No. 5073, 2014. |
| 25. | Paranychianakis, N.V., M. Salgot, S.A. Snyder and A.N. Angelakis, Water reuse in EU states: Necessity for uniform criteria to mitigate human and environmental risks, Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, 45 (13), 1409-1468, 2015. |
| 26. | Mala-Jetmarova, H., A. Barton and A. Bagirov, A history of Water distribution systems and their optimization, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 15 (2), 224-235, 2015. |
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A. N. Angelakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Urban water engineering and management in ancient Greece, The Encyclopedia of Water Science, edited by B. A. Stewart and T. Howell, 999–1007, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2644.2487, Dekker, New York, 2003.
Ancient Greek civilization has been thoroughly studied, focusing on mental and artistic achievements like poetry, philosophy, science, politics, sculpture. On the other hand, most of technological exploits are still relatively unknown. However, more recent research reveals that ancient Greeks established critical foundations for many modern technological achievements, including water resources. Their approaches, remarkably advanced, encompass various fields of water resources, especially for urban use, such as groundwater exploitation, water transportation, even from long distances, water supply, stormwater and wastewater sewerage systems, flood protection and drainage, construction and use of fountains, baths and other sanitary and purgatory facilities, and even recreational uses of water. The scope of this chapter is not the exhaustive presentation of what is known today about hydraulic works, related technologies and their uses in ancient Greece but, rather, the discussion of a few characteristic examples in selected urban water fields that chronologically extend from the early Minoan civilization to the classical Greek period.
Remarks:
Also published in Encyclopedia of Water Science, Second Edition, edited by S. W. Trimble, 31-38, 2007.
Related works:
Additional material:
See also: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a792058867~db=all
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
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| 4. | #Angelakis, A.N., Y.M. Savvakis, and G. Charalampakis, Minoan aqueducts: A pioneering technology, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 423-429, 2006. |
| 5. | #Antoniou, G., R. Xarchakou and A.N. Angelakis, Water cistern systems in Greece from Minoan to Hellenistic period, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 457-462, 2006. |
| 6. | #Diamanti, M., and I.K. Kalavrouziotis, Water resources of Aitolia and Akarnania, Greece, and their contribution ..., Proc. 1st IWA Intern. Symp. on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 551-559, 2006. |
| 7. | #Gorokhovich, Y.,and G. Fleeger, Pymatuning earthquake in Pennsylvania and Late Minoan Crisis on Crete, Greece, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 645-652, 2006. |
| 8. | #Sklivaniotis, M., and A.N. Angelakis, Water for human consumption through the history, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 659-666, 2006. |
| 9. | #Dialynas, E., A. Lyrintzis and A.N. Angelakis, Historical development of water supply in Iraklio city, Greece, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 671-676, 2006. |
| 10. | #Barghouth, J.M., and R.M. Al-Saed, Archaeology and landscape settings of the ancient water supply systems in Jerusalem, Proc. 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 709-719, 2006. |
| 11. | Angelakis, A.N., Y.M. Savvakis and G. Charalampakis, Aqueducts during the Minoan Era, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 7(1), 95-101, 2007. |
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| 15. | Viollet, P.-L., Water engineering in the Palace of Knossos (Minoan Crete, IInd millennium BC), Journal of Hydraulic Research, 46 (4 SUPPL. 4), 58-59, 2008. |
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| 19. | Angelakis, A. N., and D. S. Spyridakis, A brief history of water supply and wastewater management in ancient Greece, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 10 (4), 618-628, 2010. |
| 20. | #Chalkiadakis, E. G., The water supply to Heraklion, Crete, Greece from the Ottoman period (1669) to the present; the modern aqueduct and the ancient springs, Proceedings 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul-Turkey, 459-466, 2012. |
| 21. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. G. Dialynas and V. Despotakis, Historical development of water supply technologies in Crete, Greece through centuries, Proceedings 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul-Turkey, 218-224, 2012. |
| 22. | #Fotiadou, I. S., K. M. Keramitsoglou, M. Koutsoumanis and K. P. Tsagarakis, PLOTINOPOLIS: A unique complex of well and chamber, Proceedings 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul, Turkey, 105-110, 2012. |
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| 25. | #Mays, L. W., M. Sklivaniotis and A. N. Angelakis, Water for human consumption through history, Ch. 2 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 19-42, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
| 26. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. G. Dialynas and V. Despotakis, Evolution of water supply technologies through the centuries in Crete, Greece, Ch. 9 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 227-258, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
| 27. | #De Feo, G., P. Laureano, L. W. Mays and A. N. Angelakis, Water supply management technologies in the Ancient Greek and Roman civilizations, Ch. 14 in Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia (A. N. Angelakis, L. W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis and N. Mamassis, eds.), 351-382, IWA Publishing, London, 2012. |
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| 29. | #Angelakis, A. N., Water supply and sewerage in Minoan Crete: lessons and legacies, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 509-518, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
| 30. | Angelakis, A.N., and S.V. Spyridakis, Major urban water and wastewater systems in Minoan Crete, Greece, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 13 (3), 564-573, 2013. |
| 31. | #Angelakis, A. Ν., Evolution of Fountains through the Centuries in Crete, Hellas, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 591-604, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
| 32. | #De Feo, G., G. P. Antoniou, L. W. Mays, W. Dragoni, H. F. Fardin, F. El-Gohary, P. Laureano, E. I. Kanetaki , X. Y. Zheng and A. N. Angelakis, Historical development of wastewater management, , Handbook of Engineering Hydrology - Environmental Hydrology and Water Management (ed. by S. Eslamian), Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 163-217, 2014. |
| 33. | Antoniou, G., N. Kathijotes, D. S. Spyridakis and A. N. Angelakis, Historical development of technologies for water resources management and rainwater harvesting in the Hellenic civilizations, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 30 (4), 680-693, 2014. |
| 34. | #Angelakis, A. N., E. Kavoulaki and E. G. Dialynas, Sanitation and wastewater technologies in Minoan Era, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
| 35. | #Antoniou, G. P., G. Lyberatos, E. I. Kanetaki, A. Kaiafa, K. Voudouris and A. N. Angelakis, History of urban wastewater and stormwater sanitation technologies in Hellas, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, 99-146, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
| 36. | #Mitchell, P.D., Sanitation, Latrines and Intestinal Parasites in Past Populations, Ashgate Publishing, 1-278, 2015. |
D. Zarris, E. Lykoudi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Sediment yield estimation of a hydrological basin using measurements of reservoir deposits: A case study for the Kremasta reservoir, Western Greece, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference of European Water Resources Association: "Water Resources Management in the Era of Transition", edited by G. Tsakiris, Athens, 338–345, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2382.1047, European Water Resources Association, 2002.
Sediment discharge measurements in streams are quite rare even in technologically advanced countries, whilst comprehensive physically based models are generally unable to reliably estimate sediment yield of large-scale hydrological basins. A more realistic and reliable alternative method for sediment yield estimation, suitable for watersheds with a dam at the outlet, is the hydrographic surveying of the reservoir's invert and comparison with the one prior to the dam construction resulting to the computation of sediment deposits' volume and mass. This method has been applied to the Acheloos River basin with the hydrographic surveying of Kremasta, a large reservoir with net storage capacity exceeding 3 cubic kilometers. The sediment yield has been estimated not only for the total watershed but also for each of the three tributaries (Acheloos R., Agrafiotis R. and Megdobas R.). Besides, the soil erosion of the watershed has been estimated using an implementation of the Universal Soil Loss Equation on a geographical information system. The sediment delivery ratios have been finally computed combining the sediment yield and soil erosion estimates.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/551/1/documents/2002EWRASediment.pdf (156 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2382.1047
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Zarris, D., and E. Lykoudi, Analysis of sediment discharge data of the upper Acheloos river, Proceedings of the 7th Panhellenic Geografical Conference of the Hellenic Geographical Society (7PGC/HGS), Mytilene, Greece, 1-8, 2004. |
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| 14. | Kokpinar, M. A., A. B. Altan-Sakarya, S. Y. Kumcu and M. Gogus, Assessment of sediment yield estimations for large watershed areas: a case study for the Seyhan, Demirköprü, and Hirfanlı reservoirs in Turkey, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.959954, 2014. |
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A hydrometeorological telemetric network for the water resources monitoring of the Athens water resource system, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference of European Water Resources Association: "Water Resources Management in the Era of Transition", edited by G. Tsakiris, Athens, 157–163, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3954.9683, European Water Resources Association, 2002.
In the development of a decision support system (DSS) for the management of the Athens water resource system, special emphasis has been given to the real time feeding of the DSS with reliable hydrological data, using a telemetric system. This paper is concentrated on the description of this telemetric system that measures hydrometeorological variables of the river basins, and on the management of the telemetric data. The stations of the telemetric system can provide data of high reliability, without delay, and less costly than conventionally measured data. The information collected includes stage and discharge data from the main stream of each river basin, water level data of the reservoirs, rainfall and meteorological data. The data collection procedure is done periodically by the central telemetric system and all data is stored in the database for immediate use by other systems. Apart from feeding the DSS, the telemetric system will serve other purposes such as the monitoring and establishment of reliable time series of the atmospheric and water resources conditions of the area, and the supply of hydrometerological information in real time on the Internet.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/550/1/documents/2002EWRAMeteo.pdf (349 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3954.9683
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Grammatokogiannis, A., N. Mamassis, E. Baltas and M. Mimikou, A meteorological telemetric network for monitoring of the Athens wider Area, Proc. 9th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Rhodes, Greece, 2005. |
| 2. | #Mimikou, M., and A. Grammatikogiannis,Real-time monitoring and management of point and areal hydrometeorological data in the Athens metropolitan area, IAHS-AISH Publication 308, 31-36, 2006. |
I. Nalbantis, E. Rozos, G. M. T. Tentes, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Integrating groundwater models within a decision support system, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference of European Water Resources Association: "Water Resources Management in the Era of Transition", edited by G. Tsakiris, Athens, 279–286, European Water Resources Association, 2002.
An attempt is made to integrate groundwater models within a decision support system (DSS) called Hydronomeas, which is designed to assist large multi-reservoir system (MRS) management. This will help managing conjunctive use schemes. The DSS is currently used for the water supply of Athens, Greece. The simulated system is the Boeoticos Kephisos River Basin and its underlying karst. The karst supplies irrigation water locally as well as drinking water to Athens. Furthermore, the basin's surface outflows account for most of the inflow into Lake Yliki, one of the three main reservoirs of the Athens MRS. Three models of different levels of complexity are tested. The first model is a multi-cell model that simulates surface flows within the basin coupled to subsurface flows. The second model is a conceptually-based lumped model while the third model is a pre-existing distributed groundwater model based on the MODFLOW package. Tests with various management scenarios allow drawing conclusions regarding model efficiency and suitability for use within a DSS.
Remarks:
Full text:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Dentinho, T.P., R. Minciardi, M. Robba, R. Sacile & V. Silva, Impacts of agriculture and dairy farming on groundwater quality: an optimization problem. In: Voinov, A. et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the iEMSs 3rd Biennial Meeting, Burlington, USA, 2006. |
| 2. | #Giupponi, C., Sustainable Management of Water Resources: An Integrated Approach, 361 pages, Edward Elgar Publishing (ISBN 1845427459), 2006. |
| 3. | #Barlebo, H.C. (ed.), State-of-the-art report with users’ requirements for new IWRM tools, NeWater, www.newater.info, 2006. |
| 4. | #Dentinho, T. et al, The architecture of a decision support system (DSS) for groundwater quality preservation in Terceira Island (Azores), Integrated Water Management: Practical Experiences and Case Studies, P. Meire et al. (eds.), Springer, 2007. |
| 5. | #Lowry, T. S., S. A. Pierce, V. C. Tidwell, and W. O. Cain, Merging spatially variant physical process models under an optimized systems dynamics framework, Technical Report, Sandia National Laboratories, 67 p., 2007. |
| 6. | Bandani, E. and M. A. Moghadam, Application of groundwater mathematical model for assessing the effects of Galoogah dam on the Shooro aquifer, Iran, European Journal of Scientific Research, 54 (4), 499-511, 2011. |
| 7. | Golchin, I., M. A. Moghaddam and N. Asadi, Numerical study of groundwater flow in Iranshahr plain aquifer, Iran, Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 8 (5), 975-983, 2011. |
| 8. | #Minciardi, R., M. Robba, and R. Sacile, Environmental Decision Support Systems for soil pollution control and prevention, Soil Remediation, L. Aachen and P. Eichmann (eds.), Chapter 2, 45-85, Nova Science Publishers, 2011. |
| 9. | #Pierce, S. a., J. M. Sharp Jr, and D. J. Eaton, Decision support systems and processes for groundwater, Integrated Groundwater Management: Concepts, Approaches and Challenges, A. J. Jakeman, O. Barreteau, R. J. Hunt, J.-D. Rinaudo, A. Ross (editors), 639-665, Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-23576-9_25, 2016. |
D. Zarris, E. Lykoudi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The evolution of river sediment deposits in reservoirs as a dynamic phenomenon - Application to the Kremasta reservoir, Proceedings of the 6th Panhellenic Conference of the Greek Geographical Society, Thessaloniki, 2, 363–370, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1726.7446, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greek Geographical Society, 2002.
The depositional pattern and the temporal evolution of incoming sediments in the Kremasta reservoir is studied. To this aim, an hydrographic survey has been carried out using a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) technique and a typical fathometer. The evolution of the depositional pattern within the reservoir depends mainly on the incoming intense floods, the properties of the river sediments and the stage of the reservoir. Low reservoir stage allows erosion of deposited sediments which subsequently are carried further downstream. An illustration of this pattern is given in this paper. The spatial distribution of the sediment deposits in the reservoir suggests that at least for large reservoirs, the concept of designing the dead volume near the dam is under serious doubt. Specifically, for the reservoir under study, the deposits tend to occupy a significant (in absolute terms) part of the reservoir's useful volume whilst the nominal dead volume is almost empty of sediments.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/547/1/documents/2002GeogrSediment.pdf (429 KB)
Additional material:
K. Hadjibiros, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Katsiri, A. Stamou, A. Andreadakis, G.-F. Sargentis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and A. Valassopoulos, Management of water quality of the Plastiras reservoir, 4th International Conference on Reservoir Limnology and Water Quality, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4872.4723, 2002.
The problems associated with establishing a "safe" minimum level for a reservoir serving multiple and conflicting purposes (hydroelectric power generation, water supply, irrigation and recreation) are discussed. A comprehensive approach of the problem considers three different criteria. The first criterion is water quantity. Available long-term reservoir inflow data are analyzed to establish 'sustainable" water inputs in relation to demands that have to be satisfied. The second criterion is ecology and landscape and considers how fluctuations of the reservoir level affect the lake banks vegetation. It discusses the implications to aesthetic, touristic and beneficial uses. The third criterion is water quality and considers how the fluctuations in lake volume affect the chemical and biological status of the lake. For this purpose a one-dimensional eutrophication model was used. The minimum water level is established from the synthesis of the above, using a multi-criteria analysis.
Remarks:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/546/1/documents/2002TsehiaPlastiras.pdf (241 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4872.4723
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Spanoudaki, K., and A. Stamou, The prospects of developing integrated ecological models for the needs of the WFD 2000/60, Proceedings of the International Conference for the Restoration and Protection of the Environment V, Mykonos, 2004. |
| 2. | #Stamou, A. I., K. Nanou-Giannarou, and K. Spanoudaki, Best modeling practices in the application of the Directive 2000/60 in Greece, Proc. 3rd IASME/WSEAS Int. Conf. on Energy, Environment, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development, 388-397, 2007. |
| 3. | Stamou, A.I., K. Hadjibiros, A. Andreadakis, and A. Katsiri, Establishing minimum water level for Plastiras reservoir (Greece) combining water quality modelling with landscape aesthetics, Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 12(3), 157-170, 2007. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Tselentis, Comment on the perspectives of water resources development in Greece with regard to the Water Framework Directive, Water Framework Directive - Harmonization with the Greek reality, Proceedings, 87–92, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1988.8887, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2002.
As a consequence of the inadequate development of water resources and the Mediterranean hydroclimatic conditions, water needs in several areas in Greece are not satisfactorily met. Therefore, the need for further development of water resources is urgent. Such a development should comprise the construction of new works that can assure long-lasting and sustainable solutions in water supply, hydropower and agricultural development. Furthermore such works would mitigate the existing stresses acting on natural environment and groundwater aquifers. Modifications to be made to the natural water systems will not be in breach of the Water Framework Directive provided that sustainability requirements will be met, while negative environmental impacts are alleviated. In this direction, the fact that water quality and environmental conditions of the existing modified water systems (e.g. large reservoirs), match and often exceed the condition of the natural water bodies, is very encouraging.
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1988.8887
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Vasvatekis, I., Facts and policies on the issue of water resources management in Greece, Proceedings of the EYE-EEDYP Conference “Integrated Water Resource Management in Climate Change Conditions” (eds. A. Liakopoulos, V. Kanakoudis, E. Anastasiadou-Partheniou and V. Tsihrintzis), Volos, Greece, 67-74, 2009. |
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm for global optimisation of water resource systems, Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Hydroinformatics, Cardiff, UK, 1423–1428, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1038.6162, International Water Association, 2002.
The evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm is a probabilistic heuristic global optimisation technique that joins ideas from different methodological approaches, enhancing them with some original elements. The main concept is based on a controlled random search scheme, where a generalised downhill simplex methodology is coupled with a simulated annealing procedure. The algorithm combines the robustness of simulated annealing in rugged problems, with the efficiency of hill-climbing methods in simple search spaces. The following-up procedure is based on a simplex-searching scheme. The simplex is reformulated at each generation going either downhill or uphill, according to a probabilistic criterion. In the first case, it moves towards the direction of a candidate local minimum via a generalised Nelder-Mead strategy. In the second case, it expands itself along the uphill direction, in order to escape from the current local minimum. In all possible movements, a combination of deterministic as well as stochastic transition rules is applied. The evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm was first examined in a variety of typical benchmark functions and then it was applied in two global optimisation problems taken from water resources engineering, the calibration of a hydrological model and the optimisation of a multiple reservoir systems' operation. The algorithm has been proved very reliable in locating the global optimum, requiring reasonable computational effort.
Remarks:
Web page of optimization algorithms: http://itia.ntua.gr/en/softinfo/29/
Full text:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1038.6162
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #El Mouatasim, A., and R. Ellaia, RPRGM approach for optimize the cost of electric energy of drinking water complex, JANO8 2005: 8emes Journees d’Analyse Numerique et Optimisation, 327-331, Rabat-Morocco, 2005. |
| 2. | Machado, E. S., M., da Conceição Cunha, and M. Porto, Otimização de sistemas regionais de sistemas de tratamento de efluentes e seu impacto na qualidade da água: uma revisão, Revista de Gestao de Agua da America Latina, 3(1), 57-71, 2006. |
| 3. | #Burton, A., H. Fowler, C. Kilsby, and M. Marani, Investigation of intensity and spatial representations of rainfall within stochastic rainfall model, AquaTerra: Integrated modelling of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system; advanced tools for the management of catchment areas and river basins in the context of global change, Deliverable H1.8, 57 pp., 2007. |
| 4. | Bruen, M., Systems analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 12(3), 739-749, 2008. |
| 5. | #Martins, J. C., and L. A. Sousa, Bioelectronic Vision: Retina Models, Evaluation Metrics and System Design, Series on Bioengineering and Biomedical Engineering, Vol. 3, 272 p., Singapore, 2009. |
| 6. | Kourakos, G., and A. Mantoglou, Pumping optimization of coastal aquifers based on evolutionary algorithms and surrogate modular neural network models, Advances in Water Resources, 32(4), 507-521, 2009. |
| 7. | Martins, J., P. Tomás, and L. Sousa, Neural code metrics: Analysis and application to the assessment of neural models, Neurocomputing, 72(10-12), 2337-2350, 2009. |
| 8. | #Dakhlaoui, H., Z. Bargaoui and A. Bàrdossy, Comparison of three methods using the κ-nearest neighbours approach to improve the SCE-UA algorithm for calibration of the HBV rainfall-runoff model, IAHS Publication 331, 139-153, 2009. |
| 9. | Nicklow, J., P. Reed, D. Savic, T. Dessalegne, L. Harrell, A. Chan-Hilton, M. Karamouz, B. Minsker, A. Ostfeld, A. Singh, and E. Zechman, State of the art for genetic algorithms and beyond in water resources planning and management, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 136(4), 412-432, 2010. |
| 10. | Tudorache, T., and V. Bostan, Wind generators test bench. Optimal design of PI controller, Advances in Electrical and Computer Engineering, 11(3), 65-70, 2011. |
| 11. | #SIRRIMED (Sustainable use of irrigation water in the Mediterranean Region), D4.2 and D5.2 Report on Models to be Implemented in the District Information Systems (DIS) and Watershed Information Systems (WIS), 95 pp., Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 2011. |
| 12. | Dong, Y., S. Mihalas, A. Russell, R. Etienne-Cummings, and E. Niebur, Estimating parameters of generalized integrate-and-fire neurons from the maximum likelihood of spike trains, Neural Computation, 23(11), 2833-2867, 2011. |
| 13. | Dakhlaoui, H., Z. Bargaoui, and A. Bàrdossy, Toward a more efficient calibration schema for HBV rainfall-runoff model, Journal of Hydrology, 444-445, 161-179, 2012. |
| 14. | Musharavati, F., A neural network approach for integrated water resource management, International Journal of Biological, Ecological and Environmental Sciences, 1(3), 64–71, 2012. |
| 15. | Dong, Y., S. Mihalas, S. S. Kim, T. Yoshioka, S. J. Bensmaia and E. Niebur, A simple model of mechanotransduction in primate glabrous skin, Journal of Neurophysiology, 109 (5), 1350-1359, 2013. |
| 16. | Kourakos, G., and A. Mantoglou, Development of a multi-objective optimization algorithm using surrogate models for coastal aquifer management, Journal of Hydrology, 479, 13-23, 2013. |
| 17. | #Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Pumping optimization of coastal aquifers using radial basis function metamodels, Proceedings of 9th World Congress EWRA “Water Resources Management in a Changing World: Challenges and Opportunities”, Istanbul, 2015. |
| 18. | Villani, V., D. Di Serafino, G., Rianna, and P. Mercogliano, Stochastic models for the disaggregation of precipitation time series on sub-daily scale: identification of parameters by global optimization, CMCC Research Paper, RP0256, 2015. |
| 19. | Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Coastal aquifer management based on the joint use of density-dependent and sharp interface models, Water Resources Management, 30(2), 861-876, doi:10.1007/s11269-015-1195-4, 2016. |
| 20. | Tigkas, D., V. Christelis, and G. Tsakiris, Comparative study of evolutionary algorithms for the automatic calibration of the Medbasin-D conceptual hydrological model, Environmental Processes, doi:10.1007/s40710-016-0147-1, 2016. |
| 21. | Dounia, M., D. Yassine, and H. Yahia, Calibrating conceptual rainfall runoff models using artificial intelligence, Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 9, 257-267, doi:10.3923/jest.2016.257.267, 2016. |
| 22. | Charizopoulos, N., and A. Psilovikos, Hydrologic processes simulation using the conceptual model Zygos: the example of Xynias drained Lake catchment (central Greece), Environmental Earth Sciences, 75:777, doi:10.1007/s12665-016-5565-x, 2016. |
| 23. | Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Pumping optimization of coastal aquifers assisted by adaptive metamodelling methods and radial basis functions, Water Resources Management, 30(15), 5845–5859, doi:10.1007/s11269-016-1337-3, 2016. |
| 24. | #Christelis, V., V. Bellos, and G. Tsakiris, Employing surrogate modelling for the calibration of a 2D flood simulation model, Sustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change: Proceedings of the 4th IAHR Europe Congress (Liege, Belgium, 27-29 July 2016), A. S. Erpicum, M. Pirotton, B. Dewals, P. Archambeau (editors), CRC Press, 2016. |
| 25. | Ciervo, F., G. Rianna, P. Mercogliano, and M. N. Papa, Effects of climate change on shallow landslides in a small coastal catchment in southern Italy, Landslides, 14(3), 1043–1055, doi:10.1007/s10346-016-0743-1, 2017. |
| 26. | Charizopoulos, N., A. Psilovikos, and E. Zagana, A lumped conceptual approach for modeling hydrological processes: the case of Scopia catchment area, Central Greece, Environmental Earth Sciences, 76:18, doi:10.1007/s12665-017-6967-0, 2017. |
| 27. | Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Physics-based and data-driven surrogate models for pumping optimization of coastal aquifers, European Water, 57, 481-488, 2017 |
| 28. | Kopsiaftis, G., V. Christelis, and A. Mantoglou, Pumping optimization in coastal aquifers: Comparison of sharp interface and density dependent models, European Water, 57, 443-449, 2017. |
| 29. | Christelis, V., R. G. Regis, and A. Mantoglou, Surrogate-based pumping optimization of coastal aquifers under limited computational budgets, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 20(1), 164-176, doi:10.2166/hydro.2017.063, 2018. |
| 30. | Rozos, E., An assessment of the operational freeware management tools for multi-reservoir systems, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, ws2018169, doi:10.2166/ws.2018.169, 2018. |
| 31. | Christelis, V., and A. Mantoglou, Pumping optimization of coastal aquifers using seawater intrusion models of variable-fidelity and evolutionary algorithms, Water Resources Management, 33(2), 555-558, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2116-0, 2019. |
| 32. | Kopsiaftis, G., V. Christelis, and A. Mantoglou, Comparison of sharp interface to variable density models in pumping optimisation of coastal aquifers, Water Resources Management, 33(4), 1397-409, doi:10.1007/s11269-019-2194-7, 2019. |
| 33. | Christelis, V., G. Kopsiaftis, and A. Mantoglou, Performance comparison of multiple and single surrogate models for pumping optimization of coastal aquifers, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(3), 336-349, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1584400, 2019. |
| 34. | Hayek, A., N. Tabaja, Z. Khraibani, S. A. Andaloussi, J. Toufaily, M. Mrad, E. Garnie-Zarli, T.r Hamieh, Modeling of runoff as a function of temperature and precipitation: Application to the Litani river in Lebanon, Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change, 10(9), 526, 2019. |
| 35. | Onof, C., and L.-P. Wang, Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: New developments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences , 24, 2791-2815, doi: 10.5194/hess-24-2791-2020, 2020. |
| 36. | Stamou, A.-T., and P. Rutschmann, Optimization of water use based on the water-energy-food nexus concept: Application to the long-term development scenario of the Upper Blue Nile River, Water Utility Journal, 25, 1-13, 2020. |
| 37. | Bemmoussat, A., K. Korichi, D. Baahmed, N. Maref, O. Djoukbala, Z. Kalantari, and S. M. Bateni, Contribution of satellite-based precipitation in hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling: Case study of the Hammam Boughrara region in Algeria, Earth Systems and Environment, doi:10.1007/s41748-021-00256-z, 2021. |
| 38. | Hayder, A. M., and M. Al-Mukhtar, Modelling the IDF curves using the temporal stochastic disaggregation BLRP model for precipitation data in Najaf City, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14, 1957, doi:10.1007/s12517-021-08314-6, 2021. |
| 39. | Silva, T. F., C. L. Rodrigues, N. Added, M. A. Rizzutto, M. H. Tabacniks, T. Höschen, U. von Toussaint, and M. Mayer, Self-consistent ion beam analysis: An approach by multi-objective optimization, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms, 506, 32-40, doi:10.1016/j.nimb.2021.09.007, 2021. |
| 40. | Oruc, S., I. Yücel, and A. Yılmaz, Investigation of the effect of climate change on extreme precipitation: Capital Ankara case, Teknik Dergi, 33(2), doi:10.18400/tekderg.714980, 2022. |
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Determining management scenarios for the water resource system of Athens, Proceedings, Hydrorama 2002, 3rd International Forum on Integrated Water Management, 175–181, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3135.7684, Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens, Athens, 2002.
The development process of scenarios used within a decision support system for water resources management is discussed, based on the case of the Athens water resource system. In particular, the schematisation process of the real world hydrosystem into a model representation is analysed, as well as further information consisting a scenario, including hydrological and water demand conditions, operational constraints, targets and their priorities, management objectives, and methodological assumptions used in decision making, is discussed
Full text:
D. Xenos, I. Passios, S. Georgiades, E. Parlis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water demand management and the Athens water supply, Proceedings of the 7th BNAWQ Scientific and Practical Conference "Water Quality Technologies and Management in Bulgaria", Sofia, 44–50, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3660.0561, Bulgarian National Association on Water Quality, 2002.
Water demand management has acquired great importance in the framework of sustainable urban water management. Technological, economical, institutional and communicational means can be used to realise efficient water demand management. In this context, the general conditions and the potential for implementing water demand management in Athens is examined.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/501/1/documents/2002SofiaAthensWDM.pdf (1098 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3660.0561
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Tzamtzis, A.D. and M. Paralika, Leakage detection repair management and optimization of water supply network..., Pumps, Electromechanical Devices and Systems Applied to Urban Water Management, ed. by E. Cabrera, 415-422, Taylor & Francis, 2003. |
| 2. | #Collins, R., P. Kristensen and N. Thyssen, Water Resources Across Europe—Confronting Water Scarcity and Drought, ISSN 1725-9177, 56 pp., European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, 2009. |
| 3. | Gikas, P., and A.N.Angelakis, Water resources management in Crete and in the Aegean Islands, with emphasis on the utilization of non-conventional water sources, Desalination, 248 (1-3), 1049-1064, 2009. |
| 4. | Kampragou, E., D. F. Lekkas, and D. Assimacopoulos, Water demand management: implementation principles and indicative case studies, Water and Environment Journal, 25 (4), 466-476, 2011. |
| 5. | Rozos, E., and C. Makropoulos, Assessing the combined benefits of water recycling technologies by modelling the total urban water cycle, Urban Water Journal, 2011. |
R. E. Chandler, H. S. Wheater, V. S. Isham, C. Onof, S. M. Bate, P. J. Northrop, D. R. Cox, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data, Continuous river flow simulation: methods, applications and uncertainties, BHS Occasional Paper No. 13, 59–65, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2218.2642, British Hydrological Society, London, 2002.
A common approach for continuous flow simulation, is to develop a continuous simulation model for rainfall, and to route its output through runoff models to obtain simulated flow sequences. In this framework, rainfall simulations that are appropriate for hydrological application are discussed. Initially, we present the development of models that can be calibrated using radar rainfall data. Such data represent an important source of information regarding the fine-scale structure of spatial rainfall fields. However, recognising their current limitations with respect to accuracy and record length, we subsequently describe some alternative methods that can be used when radar data are scarce, unreliable or absent.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/500/1/documents/2002BHSRain-ocr.pdf (313 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and G. Karavokiros, A decision support tool for the management of multi-reservoir systems, Proceedings of the Integrated Decision-Making for Watershed Management Symposium, Chevy Chase, Maryland, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3528.9848, US Environmental Protection Agency, Duke Power, Virginia Tech, 2001.
A decision support tool is developed for the management of water resources, focusing on multipurpose reservoir systems. This software tool has been designed in such a way that it can be suitable to hydrosystems with multiple and very often contradictory water uses and operating goals, calculating complex multi-reservoir systems as a whole. The mathematical framework is based on the original scheme parameterization-simulation-optimization. The main idea consists of a parametric formulation of the operating rules for reservoirs and other projects (i.e. hydropower plants). This methodology enables the decrease of the decision variables, making feasible the location of the optimal management policy, which maximizes the system yield and the overall operational benefit and minimizes the risk for the management decisions. The program was developed using advanced software engineering techniques. As proved two detailed case studies, it is flexible enough and thus suitable for use to a wide range of applications, so it can be helpful to water and power supply companies and related authorities.
Related works:
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3528.9848
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Xenos, D., C. Karopoulos and E. Parlis, Modern confrontation of the management of Athens' water supply system, Proc. 7th Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Syros, Greece, 952-958, 2001. |
| 2. | #Zeitoun, D. G., and A. J. Mellout, Decision support systems based on automatic water balance computation for groundwater management planning – The case of Israel’s coastal aquifer, Geoinformatics for Natural Resource Management, Joshi, P. K., P. Pani, S. N. Mohapartra, and T. P. Singh (eds.), Ch. 7, 634 pp., Nova Science Publishers Inc., New York, 2009. |
| 3. | Stamou, A.-T., and P. Rutschmann, Towards the optimization of water resource use in the Upper Blue Nile river basin, European Water, 60, 61-66, 2017. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, Experience from the operation of the automatic telemetric meteorological station in the National Technical University, Proceedings of the 8th National Congress of the Greek Hydrotechnical Association, edited by G. Christodoulou, A. Stamou, and A. Nanou, Athens, 301–308, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4577.5603, Greek Hydrotechnical Association, 2000.
An automatic telemetric meteorological station has been set up in the National Technical University of Athens campus at Zographou, whose operation has completed six years. Several types of sensors and devices for energy supply, as well as techniques for data acquisition, logging and transmission were tested. Emphasis was given to the direct availability and easy access to the data, both real time and historical, for any interested user. To this aim, the Internet was utilised and several software applications were developed to allow data access through the World Wide Web.
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4577.5603
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Grammatokogiannis, A., N. Mamassis, E. Baltas and M. Mimikou, A meteorological telemetric network for monitoring of the Athens wider Area, Proc. 9th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Rhodes, Greece, 2005. |
A. Efstratiadis, N. Zervos, G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The Hydronomeas computational system and its application to the simulation of reservoir systems, Water resources management in sensitive regions of Greece, Proceedings of the 4th Conference, edited by G. Tsakiris, A. Stamou, and J. Mylopoulos, Volos, 36–43, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4053.2724, Greek Committee for the Water Resources Management, 1999.
Optimisation of a multiple-reservoir system becomes increasingly complex when conflicting water uses exist, such as water supply, irrigation, hydroelectric power generation etc. Hydronomeas is a software tool, suitable for simulating and conducting a search for the optimum water resources management policy of a multi-purpose hydrosystem. The mathematical model is based on recent introduction and theoretical development of parametric rules for operation of multiple-reservoir systems. Software implementation was such performed that the model can be easily applied to a wide range of hydrosystems and that representation will be as realistic as possible, incorporating all natural, operational, environmental and other restrictions. Hydronomeas consists of several subsystems, including operational simulation, optimisation and visualisation. The first two cope with goals concerning both consumptive and energy-oriented water uses. Hydronomeas has been applied on the hydrosystem comprising all existing and under construction projects of the Acheloos river, its planned diversion and the related projects in Thessalia.
Related works:
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D. Zarris, D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Karavokiros, A simple stochastic rainfall disaggregation scheme for urban drainage modelling, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Developments in Urban Drainage Modelling, edited by D. Butler and C. Maksimovic, London, 85–92, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3004.6969, International Association of Water Quality, International Association of Hydraulic Research, UNESCO, Imperial College, London, 1998.
An alternative method to both the design storm approach and the continuous simulation of historic or synthetic storms is presented. The method is based on, and uses as the only input, the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of the particular urban catchment of interest. The main concept is to keep the design storm approach for the determination of the total characteristics of the design storm event, i.e. duration and depth extracted from the IDF curves of the particular region, and use a disaggregation technique to generate a ensemble of alternative hyetographs (instead of adopting a unique arbitrary design time profile). The stochastically generated hyetographs are then entered into a rainfall - runoff model and then routed through the sewer network in order to simulate the hydraulic performance of the sewer network. This enables the determination of the conditional distribution of the outflow peak, which can then be utilised for studying the design characteristics and the behaviour of the sewer network.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/28/1/documents/1998UDMRain.pdf (306 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3004.6969
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Grimaldi, S., F. Serinaldi, F. Napolitano and L. Ubertini, A 3-copula function application for design hyetograph analysis, IAHS-AISH Publication, (293), 203-211, 2005. |
| 2. | Grimaldi, S., and F. Serinaldi, Design hyetograph analysis with 3-copula function, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51 (2), 223-238, 2006. |
| 3. | Calvo, B.. and F. Savi, A real-world application of Monte Carlo procedure for debris flow risk assessment, Computers & Geosciences, 35(5), 967–977, 2009. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, From the single hydraulic work to hydrosystem: The case of the hydrologic design of the Evinos works, Proceedings of the Hellenic Conference of the Civil Engineering Departments, Thessaloniki, 235–244, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2152.7280, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 1997.
In the present, many of the major hydraulic works constitute links in wider chains of constructions (hydrosystems) that collaborate to serve one or more purposes. Both design and operation of each such individual work results from the total study of the entire hydrosystem, whereas traditional methodologies, based on the isolation and independent study of partial works are not sufficient. The Evinos works (dam, reservoir, connection tunnel), due to their incorporation in the wider water supply system of Athens, are a typical case where the hydrologic design was performed according to the hydrosystem concept. In this paper, the general considerations and specific techniques followed in the hydrologic design of the Evinos works are summarised, while comparisons with the relatively similar problem of the Acheloos diversion are made.
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G. C. Koukis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Greece, Geomorphological hazards in Europe, edited by C.&C. Embleton, 215–241, doi:10.1016/S0928-2025(97)80010-7, Elsevier, 1997.
The hazards related to geomorphological processes in Greece are analysed and classified. Specifically, the seismic activity and the landslides are described in detail whereas historical data are given for the volcanic activity, tsunamis and soil erosion. Finally, emphasis is given to flood hazards. Following a short history, the causes, magnitude and geographical distribution of floods are presented. Subsequently, the flood regime and the related hazards in mountainous areas, closed hydrological basins in karst areas, and plains are analysed by examining cases of historical floods for each of these categories. Floods in urban areas are examined too, also incorporating an analysis of recent and earlier floods in Athens. A special reference is done for flood hazards related to dams and reservoirs (design floods, flood protection, floods caused by landslides into reservoirs, hazards due to dam failures). Finally, the research and applied practices related to flood forecasting systems in Greece are discussed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/29/1/documents/1997FldGreece.pdf (3997 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0928-2025(97)80010-7
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Rapp, A., Book review: Geomorphological hazards of Europe, CATENA, 31(4), 305-308, 1998. |
| 2. | Tzavelas, G., A. G. Paliatsos and P. T. Nastos, Models for the exceedances of high thresholds over the precipitation daily totals in Athens, Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 105–108, 2010. |
| 3. | Nastos, P. T., K. P. Moustris, I. K. Larissi and A. G. Paliatsos, Rain intensity forecast using artificial neural networks in Athens, Greece, Atmospheric Research, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.020, 2011. |
L. Lazaridis, G. Kalaouzis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Marinos, Basic engineering and economic characteristics regarding water resources management of Thessaly, Proceedings of the International Conference on Water Resources Management, Larissa, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4512.0249, Technical Chamber of Greece, 1996.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, the development of Thessaly passed through several stages characterised by the construction of particular works, which were judged as beneficial for agricultural development. In the near future, the Acheloos diversion project is expected to create new conditions for the Thessaly and the national economy. However, a complete study for the optimisation of the economical parameters, including energy, agricultural, and environmental aspects, has not been made until now. This study summarises the basic technical, hydrological, hydrogeological, and economical characteristics of the necessary works for the development of the Thessaly's water resources including the Acheloos diversion project. From the values provided, a picture of the parameters that should enter into an investigation of the optimal water resources management schemes is obtained, and a policy of the planning and design of the major works is outlined.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/31/1/documents/1996ThessaliaWRM.pdf (294 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4512.0249
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stamatis, G., K. Parpodis, Α. Filintas and Ε. Zagana, Groundwater quality, nitrate pollution and irrigation environmental management in the Neogene sediments of an agricultural region in central Thessaly (Greece), Environmental Earth Sciences, 64 (4), 1081-1105, 2011. |
G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrologic data management using RDBMS with Differential-Linear Data Storage, Hydraulic Engineering Software V: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference HYDROSOFT '94, edited by W. R. Blain and K. L. Katsifarakis, Sithonia, 2, 317–326, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2021.6565, Computational Mechanics Publications, Southampton, 1994.
Recently, Relational Data Base Management Systems (RDBMSs) have become popular for handling hydrologic time-series and running hydrologic applications. However, the standard data independence in such systems has many technical disadvantages in storing time-series data. An alternative technique, named Differential-Linear Data Storage (DLDS) technique, has been developed in the framework of the Hydroscope project (a Greek nation-wide database for hydrometeorological information). This technique establishes a standardised representation of hydrologic time-series in a relational database environment, also providing a notable reduction in storage space. Instead of the standard SQL queries (select, insert, delete and update), numerous composite procedures are implemented to facilitate time-series management.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/35/2/documents/1994HYDROSOFTDLDS-ocr.pdf (1088 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2021.6565
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Sanopoulos, D., A. Kungolos, V. Keramaris and Z. Kiparissidi, Developing a database for Energy and Environment: The Hephaestos project, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 9(5-6), 281-286, 2000. |
| 2. | #Sidiropoulos, E., D. Tolikas, and P. Tolikas, The status of water resources monitoring in the Balkans, Greece, Transboundary Water Resources in the Balkans, J. Ganoulis, et al. (ed.). Kluwer, 125-135, 2000. |
| 3. | #Sanopoulos, D., M. Stavropoulos and A. Kungolos, Hephaestus: A database for environment and energy. Results, potential utilization and benefits, Proceedings of the International Conference "Protection and Restoration of the Environment VI", ed. by A.G. Kungolos, et al., Skiathos, July 1-5, 2002, 1745-1752, 2002. |
A. Sakellariou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Tolikas, HYDROSCOPE: Experience from a distributed database system for hydrometeorological data, Hydraulic Engineering Software V: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference HYDROSOFT '94, edited by W. R. Blain and K. L. Katsifarakis, Sithonia, 2, 309–316, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1022.2325, Computational Mechanics Publications, Southampton, 1994.
HYDROSCOPE is a Greek nation-wide research programme with 14 participating organisations aiming at the development of a national distributed data-base system for meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological information. Available modern computer technologies such as powerful workstations, high speed wide-area networks, relational distributed database management systems, client-server architecture, graphical user interfaces and fourth generation programming languages have been used throughout the project. In parallel, a human network consisting of scientists and engineers from all participating organisations, universities, ministries, research centres and public agencies, has been set up. In this paper we present the two-year experience from the project, both at technical and human level, the achievements made and the problems encountered, as well as the perspectives up to the year 2000.
Remarks:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/34/2/documents/1994HYDROSOFTHydroscope-ocr.pdf (1019 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1022.2325
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Sanopoulos, D., A. Kungolos, V. Keramaris and Z. Kiparissidi, Developing a database for Energy and Environment: The Hephaestos project, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 9(5-6), 281-286, 2000. |
| 2. | #Sidiropoulos, E., D. Tolikas, and P. Tolikas, The status of water resources monitoring in the Balkans, Greece, Transboundary Water Resources in the Balkans, J. Ganoulis, et al. (ed.). Kluwer, 125-135, 2000. |
| 3. | #Sanopoulos, D., M. Stavropoulos and A. Kungolos, Hephaestus: A database for environment and energy. Results, potential utilization and benefits, Proceedings of the International Conference "Protection and Restoration of the Environment VI", ed. by A.G. Kungolos, et al., Skiathos, July 1-5, 2002, 1745-1752, 2002. |
G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, OPSIS: An intelligent tool for hydrologic data processing and visualisation, Proceedings of the 2nd European Conference on Advances in Water Resources Technology and Management, edited by G. Tsakiris and M. A. Santos, Lisbon, 45–50, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3070.2320, Balkema, Rotterdam, 1994.
Opsis is a hydrologic computer application that performs database administration, data visualisation and hydrologic and statistical computations. It is developed in an object-oriented environment with a wide use of graphical tools. It establishes a representation of hydrologic data series as objects with standard characteristics, and a protocol that hydrologic procedures should follow when acting on objects. It is connected to a large hydrologic database and has been used by several Greek organisations.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/33/2/documents/1994EWRAOpsis-ocr.pdf (796 KB)
Additional material:
N. Papakostas, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Modern computer technologies in hydrologic data management, Proceedings of the 2nd European Conference on Advances in Water Resources Technology and Management, edited by G. Tsakiris and M. A. Santos, Lisbon, 285–293, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4167.9604, Balkema, Rotterdam, 1994.
Advanced water resources management is facilitated by hydrologic data management using modem computer technologies. By means of such technologies, a distributed data management system for hydrologic, meteorologic and hydrogeologic historical information has been built. In this paper, we present the fundamental design and implementation principles and features of the system. Information classification, local and distributed database design and network architecture are described.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/32/3/documents/1994EWRAModernCompTechn-ocr.pdf (1225 KB)
Additional material:
N. Mamassis, et D. Koutsoyiannis, Structure stochastique de pluies intenses par type de temps, Publications de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie, 6eme Colloque International de Climatologie, edité par P. Maheras, Thessaloniki, 6, 301–313, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3643.6726, Association Internationale de Climatologie, Aix-en-Provence Cedex, France, 1993.
We studied the influence of weather types on the stochastic structure of the intense rainfall events. We used hourly rainfall depths from three rain recorders in Evinos River basin while the corresponding weather types were determined based on classification by Maheras (1982). Initially, we calculated the frequency of occurrence of intense rainfall events for each weather type. Also, we calculated the statistics of the rainfall event characteristics (duration, the hourly and the total rainfall depth), including the autocorrelation and cross correlation functions of hourly depths. To detect statistically significant differences between event characteristics for different weather types, we applied various statistical tests and analysis of variance.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/39/3/documents/1993AICTypeDeTemps-ocr.pdf (1409 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3643.6726
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stehlik, J., and A. Bardossy, Multivariate stochastic downscaling model for generating daily precipitation series based on atmospheric circulation, Journal of Hydrology, 256(1-2), 120-141, 2002. |
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, et D. Koutsoyiannis, Le phénomène recent de sécheresse persistante et l' alimentation en eau de la cité d' Athènes, Publications de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie, 6eme Colloque International de Climatologie, edité par P. Maheras, Thessaloniki, 6, 123–132, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4430.1041, Association Internationale de Climatologie, Aix-en-Provence Cedex, France, 1993.
We analyse statistically the historic hydrologic samples of the water basins of Mornos and B. Kifissos-Yliki. A decreasing trend on the precipitation and runoff for the B. Kifissos basin was found. Moreover, a significant reduction of the annual inflows was found for the period of the recent six-year drought for both basins. The analysis of precipitation did not reveal any significant reduction on their annual values, but it is rather their within-year distribution that has been substantially modified. More specifically, the precipitation of January during the last six years is significantly less than that of the previous period, a fact that explains the significant reduction of the inflows to the reservoirs of Mornos and Yliki.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/38/2/documents/1993AICSecheresse-ocr.pdf (1102 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4430.1041
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Giakoumakis, S.G., and G. Baloutsos, Investigation of trend in hydrological time series of the Evinos river basin, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 42(1), 81-88, 1997. |
| 2. | Leroux, M., Global Warming: Myth or reality? The actual evolution of the weather, Annales de Geographie, (624), 115-137, 2002. |
| 3. | Leroux, M., Global Warming: Myth or reality? The actual evolution of the weather, Energy and Environment, 14(2-3), 297-322, 2003. |
| 4. | #Leroux, M., Global Warming: Myth Or Reality?: The Erring Ways of Climatology, Springer, 510 pp., 2005. |
| 5. | Sardou, S. F., and A. Bahremand, Hydrological drought analysis using SDI Index in Halilrud basin of Iran, The International Journal of Environmental Resources Research, 1(3), 279-288, 2013. |
D. Tolikas, D. Koutsoyiannis, et Th. Xanthopoulos, HYDROSCOPE: Un systeme d'informations pour l'etude des phenomenes hydroclimatiques en Grece, Publications de l'Association Internationale de Climatologie, 6eme Colloque International de Climatologie, edité par P. Maheras, Thessaloniki, 6, 673–682, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2857.2409, Association Internationale de Climatologie, Aix-en-Provence Cedex, France, 1993.
Research on climate changes requires large amount of data as well as the utilisation of all historical information stored in manuscripts and in computer files. Related to this subject the research program HYDROSCOPE recently started in Greece, aiming to the development of a national distributed data base of meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological data. It is a computer network, based on high speed transmission lines. A relational and distributed data base management system functioning through the network permits the transparent access to the data.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/37/2/documents/1993AICHydroscope-ocr.pdf (1642 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2857.2409
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Sidiropoulos, E., D. Tolikas, and P. Tolikas, The status of water resources monitoring in the Balkans, Greece, Transboundary Water Resources in the Balkans, J. Ganoulis, et al. (ed.). Kluwer, 125-135, 2000. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Tsolakidis, and N. Mamassis, HYDRA-PC, A data base system for regional hydrological data management, Proceedings of the 1st European Conference on Advances in Water Resources Technology, Athens, 551–557, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4954.3921, Balkema, Rotterdam, 1991.
Recent improvements of personal computer capabilities have facilitated the development of computer programs for hydrological data management and processing in order to take maximum advantage of the available hydrological information. In this paper a software package (HYDRA-PC, Hydrological Data Retrieval and Analysis for personal Computers) developed for the processing and analysis of daily and hourly hydrometeorological data is presented. The package is made of a number of executable programs and database files. For every hydrometeorological station, the database includes daily and hourly measurements as well as information on the station's peculiarities, quality and accuracy of measurements for an unlimited time period. HYDRA-PC's main characteristics are the rapid entry, updating, retrieval and primary processing of data as well as efficient computer memory and disk usage with the application of special computer programming techniques. The program operates in Greek language and is designed to accommodate the peculiarities of the data collection network (gross inaccuracies in data collection, river stage - discharge instabilities) often encountered in Greece.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/36/2/documents/1991EWRAHYDRAPC-ocr.pdf (798 KB)
Additional material:
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Large-scale calibration of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for two-stage probabilistic hydrological post-processing, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-18, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
Probabilistic hydrological modelling methodologies often comprise two-stage post-processing schemes, thereby allowing the exploitation of the information provided by conceptual or physically-based rainfall-runoff models. They might also require issuing an ensemble of rainfall-runoff model simulations by using the rainfall-runoff model with different input data and/or different parameters. For obtaining a large number of rainfall-runoff model parameters in this regard, Bayesian schemes can be adopted; however, such schemes are accompanied by computational limitations (that are well-recognized in the literature). Therefore, in this work, we investigate the replacement of Bayesian rainfall-runoff model calibration schemes by computationally convenient non-Bayesian schemes within probabilistic hydrological modelling methodologies of the above-defined family. For our experiments, we use a methodology of this same family that is additionally characterized by the following distinguishing features: It (a) is in accordance with a theoretically consistent blueprint, (b) allows the exploitation of quantile regression algorithms (which offer larger flexibility than parametric models), and (c) has been empirically proven to harness the “wisdom of the crowd” in terms of average interval score. We also use a parsimonious conceptual rainfall-runoff model and 50-year-long monthly time series observed in 270 catchments in the United States to apply and compare 12 variants of the selected methodology. Six of these variants simulate the posterior distribution of the rainfall-runoff model parameters (conditional on the observations of a calibration period) within a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo framework (first category of variants), while the other six variants use a simple computationally efficient approach instead (second category of variants). Six indicative combinations of the remaining components of the probabilistic hydrological modelling methodology (i.e., its post-processing scheme and its error model) are examined, each being used in one variant from each of the above-defined categories. In this specific context, the two large-scale calibration schemes (each representing a different “modelling culture” in our tests) are compared using proper scores and large-scale benchmarking. Overall, our findings suggest that the compared “modelling cultures” can lead to mostly equally good probabilistic predictions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2126/2/documents/EGU21-18_presentation.pdf (1464 KB)
Additional material:
A. Lagos, S. Sigourou, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Land Cover Change: Does it affect temperature variability?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, EGU21-9000, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9000, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
Changes in the land cover occur all the time at the surface of the Earth both naturally and anthropogenically. In the last decades, certain types of land cover change, including urbanization, have been correlated to local temperature increase, but the general dynamics of this relationship are still not well understood. This work examines whether land cover is a parameter affecting temperature increase by employing global datasets of land cover change, i.e. the Historical Land-Cover Change Global Dataset, and daily temperature from the NOAA database. We thoroughly investigate the temperature variability and its possible correlation to the different types of land-cover changes. A comparison is specifically made between the rate of temperature increase measured in urban areas, and the same rate measured in nearby non-urban areas.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2112/2/documents/EGU21-9000_presentation.pdf (3350 KB)
Additional material:
T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, PythOm: A python toolbox implementing recent advances in rainfall intensity (ombrian) curves, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, EGU21-389, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-389, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
Curves of rainfall intensity at various scales and for various return periods, else known as ombrian (or IDF) curves, are central design tools in hydrology and engineering. Construction of such curves often relies heavily on empirical or semi-empirical approaches, which hinder their applicability over large scales, and preclude simulation. Recent work by Koutsoyiannis (2020) has advanced these curves to theoretically-consistent stochastic models of rainfall intensity (ombrian models) extending their applicability to the full range of available scales, e.g. from minutes to decades. We present an open-source python toolbox implementing these advances in a straightforward and user-friendly manner and prove its applicability. The toolbox also employs advanced statistical fitting methods for extremes (K-moments), accounts for bias induced by temporal dependence, and allows optional blending of daily-scale data to reduce uncertainty of sub-daily records. The end result is the parameterization of the ombrian model and the graphical representation of rainfall intensity for any range of scales (supported by the data) and return periods.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2111/2/documents/EGU21-389_presentation.pdf (1647 KB)
Additional material:
G. Vagenas, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis of time-series related to ocean acidification, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, EGU21-2637, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2637, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
Since the pre-industrial era at the end of the 18th century, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) has increased by 47.46% from the level of 280 ppmv (parts per million volume) to 412.89 ppmv (Mauna Loa – NOAA Station, November 2020). These increased concentrations caused by natural & anthropogenic activities, interact with the aquatic environment which acts as a safety valve. Nevertheless, the absorbed CO2 amounts undergo chemical transformations, resulting in increasing ionized concentrations that can significantly reduce the water’s pH, a process described as ocean acidification. Here, we use the HOT (Hawaii-Ocean-Time series) to perform time series analysis for temperature, carbon dioxide partial pressure and pH. More specifically, we analyze their temporal changes in month and annual time lag. Then, we proceed in comparisons with relevant studies on atmospheric data to evaluate the produced results. Finally, we make an effort to disentangle the results with simplified assumptions connected with the observed impact of ocean acidification on the aquatic ecosystems.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2110/2/documents/EGU21-2637_presentation.pdf (5539 KB)
Additional material:
Ο. Akoumianaki, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, E. Varouchakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis of the spatial stochastic structure of precipitation in the island of Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, EGU21-4640, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4640, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
In the last few years, the island of Crete (Greece - Eastern Mediterranean) has been affected by extreme events. In recent decades, hydrometeorological processes in the island of Crete are monitored by an extensive network of meteorological stations. Here we stochastically analyze the spatial stochastic structure of precipitation in the island by employing sophisticated statistical tools, as well as by analyzing a large database of daily precipitation records. We investigate fifty-eight rainfall stations scattered in the four prefectures of Crete, for the years 1974-2020. Descriptive statistical analysis of precipitation examines several temporal properties in the data, while correlation analysis of precipitation variability provides relations between stations and regions for spatial patterns identification. This work also investigates the precipitation variability by employing statistical tools such as the autocorrelation, autoregressive (seasonal) analysis, probability distribution function fitting, and climacogram calculation, i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. spatial and temporal scales, to identify statistical properties, temporal dependencies, potential similarities in the dependence structure and marginal probability distribution.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2109/2/documents/EGU21-4640_presentation.pdf (1504 KB)
Additional material:
A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting the storage-reliability-yield concept in hydroelectricity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, EGU21-10528, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10528, European Geosciences Union, 2021.
The storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relationship is a well-established tool for preliminary design of reservoirs fulfilling consumptive water uses, yet rarely employed within hydropower planning studies. Here, we discuss the theoretical basis for representing the trade-offs between reservoir size and expected revenues from hydropower production, under uncertain inflows, by taking advantage of the stochastic simulation-optimization approach. We also demonstrate that under some assumptions, the complex and site-specific problem, mainly induced by the nonlinearity of storage-head-energy conversion, can be significantly simplified and generalized as well. The methodology is tested across varying runoff regimes and under a wide range of potential reservoir geometries, expressed in terms of a generic shape parameter of the head-storage relationship. Based on the outcomes of these analyses we derive empirical expressions that link reliable energy with summary inflow statistics, reservoir capacity and geometry.
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K. Papoulakos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Tsaknias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigating the impacts of clustering of floods on insurance practices; a spatiotemporal analysis in the USA, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2020, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 22, Vienna, EGU2020-8667, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8667, 2020.
Recent research has revealed the significance of Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and inherent uncertainties in flood inundation and flood mapping. However, classic risk estimation for flood insurance practices is formulated under the assumption of independence between the frequency and the severity of extreme flood events, which is unlikely to be tenable in real-world hydrometeorological processes exhibiting long range dependence. Furthermore, insurable flood losses are considered as ideally independent and non-catastrophic due to the widely spread perception of limited risk regarding catastrophically large flood losses. As the accurate risk assessment is a fundamental process on flood insurance and reinsurance practices, this study investigates the effects of lack of fulfillment of these assumptions, paving the way for a deeper understanding of the underlying clustering mechanisms of stream flow extremes. For this purpose, we present a spatiotemporal analysis of the daily stream flow series from the US-CAMELS dataset, comprising the impacts of clustering mechanisms on return intervals, duration and severity of the over-threshold events which are treated as proxies for collective risk. Moreover, an exploratory analysis is introduced regarding the stochastic aspects of the correlation between the properties of the extreme events and the actual claim records of the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program which are recently published.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2133/1/documents/papoulakos_2020.pdf (3143 KB)
G.T. Manolis, K. Papoulakos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Tsaknias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Clustering mechanisms of flood occurrence; modelling and relevance to insurance practices, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2020, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 22, Vienna, EGU2020-9357, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9357, 2020.
Population growth, economic development and risk-blind urbanization often increase exposure to risk, including that due to floods. While rural flooding may affect much larger areas of land, urban floods are more challenging to manage, since the higher population and asset density in the urban environment increase the environmental and social impacts of floods and make the potential flood damages more costly. Therefore, the need for integrated flood insurance policy and products on extended parts of the world is pronounced in order to reduce the financial consequences of extreme flood events, which endanger in many cases the environmental, social and economic stability. As the assessment of the so-called collective risk is a typical issue faced in insurance and reinsurance practices, in this study we investigate the stochastic dynamics of daily stream flow series with particular interest to the existence of clustering mechanisms in floods, which is known to increase the potential risk. We analyse collective risk on the US-CAMELS dataset, treating the streamflow exceedances over given thresholds as proxies for insurance claim amounts. Moreover, we develop modelling and simulation approaches of extreme flows as a step towards the deeper understanding of the relationship between the stochastic patterns of flood occurrence and proxies of insurance claims, paving the way for a more efficient use of the available streamflow records.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2132/1/documents/manolis_egu20.pdf (1660 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, A brisk local uncertainty estimator for hydrologic simulations and predictions (Blue Cat), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2020, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 22, Vienna, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10125, 2020.
We propose a brisk method for uncertainty estimation in hydrology which maximizes the probabilistic efficiency of the estimated confidence bands over the whole range of the predicted variables. It is an innovative approach framed within the blueprint we proposed in 2012 for stochastic physically-based modelling of hydrological systems. We present the theoretical foundation which proves that global uncertainty can be estimated with an integrated approach by tallying the empirical joint distribution of predictions and predictands in the calibration phase. We also theoretically prove the capability of the method to correct the bias and to fit heteroscedastic uncertainty for any probability distribution of the modelled variable. The method allows the incorporation of physical understanding of the modelled process along with its sources of uncertainty. We present an application to a toy case to prove the capability of the method to correct the bias and the entire distribution function of the predicting model. We also present a case study of a real world catchment. We prepare open source software to allow reproducibility of the results and replicability to other catchments. We term the new approach with the acronym BLUE CAT: Brisk Local Uncertainty Estimation by Conditioning And Tallying.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2044/1/documents/2020EGUBlueCat3.pdf (1106 KB)
Additional material:
A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, D. Koutsoyiannis, K. Mazi, A. D. Koussis, S. Lykoudis, E. Demetriou, N. Malamos, A. Christofides, and D. Kalogeras, Open Hydrosystem Information Network: Greece’s new research infrastructure for water, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2020, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 22, Vienna, EGU2020-4164, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4164, 2020.
The Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net) is a state-of-the-art information infrastructure for the collection, management and free dissemination of hydrological and environmental information related to Greece’s surface water resources. It was launched two years ago as part of the national research infrastructure “Hellenic Integrated Marine Inland water Observing, Forecasting and offshore Technology System” (HIMIOFoTS), which also comprises a marine-related component (https://www.himiofots.gr/). The OpenHi.net system receives and processes real-time data from automatic telemetric stations that are connected to a common web environment (https://openhi.net/). In particular, for each monitoring site it accommodates stage measurements, raw and automatically post-processed. Furthermore, in some specially selected sites time series related to water quality characteristics (pH, water temperature, salinity, DO, electrical conductivity) are provided. The web platform also offers automatically-processed information in terms of discharge data, statistics, and graphs, alerts for extreme events, as well as geographical data associated with surface water bodies. At the present time, the network comprises about 20 stations. However, their number is continuously increasing, due to the open access policy of the system (the platform is fully accessible to third-parties uploading their data). In the long run, it is envisioned that a national-scale hydrometric infrastructure will be established, covering all important rivers, lakes and reservoirs of the country.
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See also: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2020/EGU2020-4164.html
G. Karavokiros, D. Nikolopoulos, S. Manouri, A. Efstratiadis, C. Makropoulos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydronomeas 2020: Open-source decision support system for water resources management, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2020, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 22, Vienna, EGU2020-20022, doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20022, 2020.
Over the last 30 years, numerous water resources planning and management studies in Greece have been conducted by using state-of-the-art methodologies and associated computational tools that have been developed by the Itia research team at the National Technical University of Athens. The spearhead of Itia’s research toolkit has been the Hydronomeas decision support system (which stands for “water distributer” in Greek) supporting multi-reservoir hydrosystem management. Its methodological framework has been based on the parameterization-simulation-optimization approach comprising stochastic simulation, network linear optimization for the representation of water and energy fluxes, and multicriteria global optimization, ensuring best-compromise decision-making. In its early stage, Hydronomeas was implemented in Object Pascal – Delphi. Currently, the software is being substantially redeveloped and its improved version incorporates new functionalities, several model novelties and interconnection with other programs, e.g., EPANET. Hydronomeas 2020 will be available at the end of 2020 as a free and open-source Python package. In this work we present the key methodological advances and improved features of the current version of the software, demonstrated in the modelling of the extensive and challenging raw water supply system of the city of Athens, Greece.
Full text:
See also: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2020/EGU2020-20022.html
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Koutiva, I., and C. Makropoulos, On the use of agent based modelling for addressing the social component of urban water management in Europe, Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 10(4), 140-154, doi:10.4236/cweee.2021.104011, 2021. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Knowable moments for high-order characterization and modelling of hydrological processes for sustainable management of water resources, Invited Lecture, Bologna, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35109.86248, University of Bologna, 2019.
Stochastic modelling is an essential tool for planning water resources management and sustainable development. Setting up stochastic models requires the estimation of the moments of the underlying probability distribution. Classical moments, raw or central, express important theoretical properties of probability distributions but cannot be estimated from typical hydrological samples for order beyond 2. L-moments are better estimated but they all are of first order in terms of the process of interest; while they are effective in inferring the marginal distribution of stochastic processes, they cannot characterize even second order dependence of processes (and hence change) and thus they cannot help in stochastic modelling. Picking from both categories, we introduce knowable (K-) moments, which combine advantages of both classical and L-moments, and enable reliable estimation from samples and effective description of high order statistics, useful for marginal and joint distributions of stochastic processes. Further, by extending the notion of climacogram and climacospectrum we introduce the K-climacogram and the K-climacospectrum, which enable characterization, in terms of univariate functions, of high-order properties of stochastic processes, as well as preservation thereof in simulations.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2012/1/documents/2019BolognaKMoments.pdf (3621 KB)
Additional material:
C. Farmakis, P. Dimitriadis, V. Bellos, P. Papanicolaou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of the uncertainty of spatial flood inundation among widely used 1D/2D hydrodynamic models, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-15629, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
On several occasions, hydrodynamic models are applied in order to establish flood risk and flood hazard maps and evaluate the impacts of floods. More often these models are treated as deterministic tools and, as a result,the uncertainties stemmed from the modelling simplifications and assumptions are ignored. Specifically, when the spatial propagation of a flood wave is of interest the highest uncertainties emerge at the boundary conditions, at the model input parameters and even at the model structure. The aim of this research is to examine the aforementioned sources of uncertainty in benchmark scenarios. Three models are tested (i.e. the one-dimensional HEC-RAS, the quasi-two-dimensional LISFLOOD-FP, and a two-dimensional scheme of the OpenFOAM) on steady hydraulic conditions and uniform channel geometry. In each model a sensitivity analysis is performed by varying the grid resolution, the input discharge, the roughness coefficient in the channel and floodplain, and the channel longitudinal and lateral gradient. After statistically analyzing the fluctuation of the output parameters (i.e. the mean water velocity at the inflow and outflow cross section, and the water volume), the uncertainty in the different model configurations is quantified and compared.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1994/1/documents/Chrysanthos_Farmakis_poster1.pdf (2072 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic simulation of time irreversible processes and its use in hydrosystem control problems (Keynote talk), First Workshop on Control Methods for Water Resource Systems, Delft, The Netherlands, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10484.30088, International Federation of Automatic Control, 2019.
Monte Carlo control methods, in which a control action, possibly expressed in terms of a parametric relationship, is tested by stochastic simulation and subsequently optimized by a global optimization procedure, are promising for complex hydrosystems with nonlinear dynamics. In particular, they have proved powerful for the management of large reservoir systems, where simulation and optimization are performed on a time scale of the order of a month. A basic requirement of these methods is a proper technique for stochastic generation of hydrological inputs, respecting characteristic behaviours of hydrological processes, such as seasonality, intermittence, long term persistence and roughness (fractality). However, most control problems in hydrosystems require time scales of study much finer than monthly, e.g., hourly or even finer. Examples are the control of spillway gates and of hydropower turbines. On fine time scales, another behaviour of hydrological processes becomes important and necessary to reproduce: time irreversibility. As common stochastic techniques produce time series whose properties are symmetric in time, a new stochastic simulation method is presented, which is capable of generating sequences with the required properties related to time irreversibility. The method is generic as it can reproduce any marginal distribution, covariance structure and irreversibility index, and can work both in simulation and forecast mode.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1985/1/documents/2019SapienzaDelftLecture.pdf (4788 KB)
K. Kardakaris, M. Kalli, T. Agoris, P. Dimitriadis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of the stochastic structure of wind waves for energy production, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-13188, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Ocean energy is considered a promising renewable energy resource mainly due to its massive energy potential.State of the art technologies that can harness the ocean dynamics are discussed in terms of their efficiency and cost of energy production. The ocean related process with the highest potential, but also the highest uncertainty, is the wave process generated by wind. We analyze several wind-wave timeseries mostly close to shore but also one of the largest available timeseries located in the Northern Adriatic Sea with almost 40 years of 3 hours resolution of recorded wave heights and periods. We estimate marginal seasonal properties as well as second-order depen-dence structures in terms of the climacogram (i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. scale) that is shown to be advantageous as compared to more traditional stochastic tools such as the autocovariance and the power spectrum.Finally, we propose a stochastic model that can adequately simulate the observed variability of timeseries in state and scale.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1968/1/documents/Poster_HCQaTsC.pdf (1450 KB)
S. Vavoulogiannis, N. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of rainfall and runoff series from a large hydrometeorological dataset, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
We investigate the recently published CAMELS dataset, which is one of the most comprehensive large-scale datasets in terms of river flow timeseries and attributes of catchments minimally impacted by human activities. We examine the stochastic properties of daily river flow and rainfall series and investigate the links between the two at various lags, through climacogram-based stochastics tools (i.e. the climacogram and cross-climacogram) examining the variance versus spatio-temporal scale. We also explore the impact of various climatic and geophysical catchment attributes such as seasonality and timing of precipitation, aridity, mean catchment slope and soil conductivity, on the identified rainfall-runoff stochastic relationships.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1966/1/documents/egu_teliko_powerpoint.pdf (1006 KB)
T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparing estimators for inferring dependence from records of hydrological extremes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-9621, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Hydrological extremes are regularly assumed independent in most practical and theoretical applications. The latter is indeed a convenient assumption as temporal independence is usually a prerequisite for the application of the widely used classical statistics. Motivated by the existence of dependence mechanisms in hydrological processes,i.e. Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics or long-term persistence, we investigate the propagation of persistence from the parent processes into the series of extremes by focusing especially on the opportunity of inferring the former(persistence) from the latter (records of extremes). To this aim, we examine relevant stochastic indices such as the Hurst parameter and the Dispersion Index, and discuss their strengths and limitations. Additionally, we explore a new probabilistic characterization of clustering for extremes which is found to provide new insights into the identification and modeling of extremal dependence.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1962/1/documents/2019_egu_poster_LRD_extremes_new.pdf (1385 KB)
T. Goulianou, K. Papoulakos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic characteristics of flood impacts for agricultural insurance practices, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-5891, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
During the last decades, the rising demand for crops for human consumption and industrial processes has led to a growth of investments and search for innovative solutions across the field of agriculture. However, one major risk that both investors and low-income farmers encounter worldwide is the impact of extreme weather events on their crop yield. The risk caused by extreme weather is an inhibitor of growth of agriculture and, apparently, agricultural insurance is strategically important for dealing with that risk. In particular, crop-yield insurance is purchased by agricultural producers, and in many cases is subsidized by governments, to protect them against the loss of their crops due to natural disasters, such as extreme flood events. In this context, the main subject of this research is to apply a stochastic approach of extremes for evaluating the impact of flood risk on agricultural insurance practices.We investigate stochastic aspects of extreme flows such as the right tail of the distribution of extremes and the existence of clustering mechanisms. For this purpose, we analyze daily flow series from the CAMELS dataset.Furthermore, we review current insurance practices in the agriculture domain in Greece and inspect the underlying stochastic assumptions, while evaluating changes in the estimated flood risk in the case that these assumptions are not valid.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1961/1/documents/2019_EGU_Flood__Insurance_Poster_FINAL.pdf (2183 KB)
D. Galanis, T. Andrikopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation and stochastic simulation of the music of wind and precipitation, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-13332, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Sound can be used as a means to detect and measure hydrometeorological variables that can generate sound.Thereby rain and wind over the sea surface can be estimated by the sound they produce if the ocean ambient noise is removed. A loud and distinctive sound is produced when the raindrops hit the ocean surface but waves also generate sound when they break. While rain and wind are difficult to measure over the ocean as gauges have to be mounted on surface buoys or ships, acoustic gauges placed beneath the ocean surface have been used as an alternative of measurement. The data that are collected from these gauges are then analysed using empirical models.In order for the sound data to be converted to wind speed and rainfall intensity, climacogram-based stochastic tools are used instead of the more traditional power spectrum ones. Furthermore, an application of this stochastic method is presented on the first ever recorded sound of wind on planet Mars, a mission executed by NASA’s In Sight lander.The study concludes with a discussion on possible similarities between the sound produced by the above variables and music (e.g. digital music for entertainment).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1960/1/documents/EGU_Poster_.pdf (3194 KB)
M. Karataraki, A. Thanasko, K. Printziou, G. Koudouris, R. Ioannidis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, C. Plati, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Campus solar roads: a feasibility analysis, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-15648-2, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
We study the possibility of replacing conventional roads and buses with solar powered panel roads and electric buses fueled by solar energy within a closed system at a university campus. We also examine an alternative option of using solar buses equipped with panels on the rooftop. We review the recent advances in the technology of solar roads and buses and examine the modeling challenges and uncertainties of a transportation system powered by solar energy. We evaluate the economic aspects as well as the advantages and limitations of the proposed systems.The feasibility of this project is examined in terms of its application in the NTUA campus and possible directions for further research are identified.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1959/1/documents/Teliko_poster_egu_1_selida.pdf (1985 KB)
M.-E. Asimomiti, N. Pelekanos, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, E. Vlahogianni, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Campus solar roads: Stochastic modeling of passenger demand, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-10585, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
In the era of rapid technological advancements, innovations have started to reshape the field of transportation and energy management. University Campuses are considered as the ideal venue for implementing and testing innovative transportation services, as they usually encompass a closed form small-scale transportation infrastructure, and mainly involve users highly receptive to emerging technologies, due to their academic background. Nevertheless,the assessment of such services is a complex task, which should take into consideration issues related to energy sufficiency, passengers’ demand estimation and routing specifications. The present paper addresses the problem of stochastic passenger demand estimation under the uncertainties introduced by the implementation of a novel university bus service operated by hybrid vehicles under the concept of “opportunity charging” and solar powered buses. Aspects such as the relationship between the passengers’ need to move around the campus and parameters,such as time schedules, waiting time and alternative means of transportation are addressed. The passenger demand series generated by the models are linked to bus dwell times, which in turn determine the available charging time at each bus stop.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1958/1/documents/solar_roads.pdf (2434 KB)
A. Petsou, M.-E. Merakou, T. Iliopoulou, C. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, R. Ioannidis, K. Kepaptsoglou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Campus solar roads: Optimization of solar panel and electric charging station location for university bus route, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-10832, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
We explore the prospect of replacing conventional university campus buses powered by fossil fuels with ones using solar energy. The proposed research investigates the emerging technology of solar powered road panels within a stochastic framework in order to optimally determine the corresponding infrastructure requirements for a university circulator line. More specifically, an optimization model is developed in order to determine the optimal locations for solar-powered roadway segments and electric charging stations for the existing university campus bus route. Since the availability of solar energy is linked to sunshine levels, we explore the possibility of using hybrid buses, powered by electricity and storing the energy to batteries in order to allow operation in days with no sunshine. As an alternative we study the use of solar buses equipped with panels on the rooftop. In order to account for the uncertainty associated with the system inputs, the transportation demand for the campus route and the availability of solar energy over the campus area are simulated using stochastic methods. The capital cost and energy consumption of the selected buses, charging stations and solar panels are also investigated in a case study for the NTUA campus.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1957/1/documents/EGU-Solar-Roads-FINAL.pdf (1082 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, E. Frangedaki, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Development of a web platform of knowledge exchange for optimal selection of building materials based on ecological criteria, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-10395, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Decisions on technical issues must simultaneously satisfy several conflicting objectives. Several methods have been developed to help identify the "optimal" decision. Such decisions are made by politicians but experts, constructors and the society must have the ability to overview and influence these decisions. The interaction of the different groups can be implemented using a web platform. The criteria to optimize this platform and its architecture are analysed. The aim is to give to non-expert users a general view of the problem and the solutions suggested, and help them form an informed opinion on a technical problem. At the same time it would help politicians and experts to take into account the public opinions in decision making.
Remarks:
This research has been supported by the OptArch project: "Optimization Driven Architectural Design of Structures" (No: 689983) belonging to the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015.
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Μ. Sako, E. Tsoli, R. Ioannidis, E. Frangedaki, G.-F. Sargentis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Optimizing the size of Hilarion dam with technical, economical and environmental parameters, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-15297, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
The construction and operation of large dams has been questioned in recent years as, despite their positive effect on the economy, they are regarded as negative to the environment. The size of a dam, in particular, is an important aspect of this debate as it is thought to increase its economic benefit but also its environmental impacts. We investigate the dam scale issue based on a case study for the Hilarion dam, located in Kozani, Greece. More specifically, in an effort to examine the problem of optimal project scale, we quantify selected technical, economic and environmental parameters of the Hilarion dam for different hypothetical scenarios of dam size including its original size. The various scenarios are compared on a cost-benefit basis to provide a first approximation of the exact relation between dam size and its technical, environmental and economic characteristics.
Remarks:
This research has been supported by the OptArch project: "Optimization Driven Architectural Design of Structures" (No: 689983) belonging to the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015.
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R. Ioannidis, P. Dimitriadis, G.-F. Sargentis, E. Frangedaki, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic similarities between hydrometeorogical and art processes for optimizing architecture and landscape aesthetic parameters, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-11403, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Stochastics help develop a unified perception for natural phenomena and expel dichotomies like random vs. deterministic, as both randomness and predictability coexist and are intrinsic to natural systems which can be deterministic and random at the same time, depending on the prediction horizon and the time scale. The high complexity and uncertainty of natural processes has been long identified through observations as well as extended analyses of hydrometeorological processes such as temperature, humidity, surface wind, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, river discharges etc. All these processes seem to exhibit high unpredictability due to the clustering of events. Art is a mix of determinism (e.g., certain rules have to be followed) and stochasticity (e.g., creativity and inspiration). However, in this analysis we analyse each artistic work in a stochastic approach, and attempt to identify their degree of intrinsic uncertainty. The stochastic analysis includes the investigation of possible Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour in the art of different periods (visual arts, music, poetry) and of relationships with natural processes. Based on the stochastic analysis of different artworks, we make an image analysis of architectural elements in the landscape in order to formulate an indicator that can be used in engineering.
Remarks:
This research has been supported by the OptArch project: "Optimization Driven Architectural Design of Structures" (No: 689983) belonging to the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Should we place a value on unmeasurable values?, Contribution to EGU 2019 Great Debate "Rewards and recognition in science: what value should we place on contributions that cannot be easily measured", European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36000.84483/1, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Remarks:
Official site: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/session/30317
Webstreaming site: https://client.cntv.at/egu2019/gdb4
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1945/1/documents/2019Debate1.pdf (2827 KB)
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, A. Langousis, A. W. Jayawardena, B. Sivakumar, N. Mamassis, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Large-scale comparison of machine learning regression algorithms for probabilistic hydrological modelling via post-processing of point predictions, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-3576, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Quantification of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling is often made by post-processing point hydrological predictions using regression models. We perform an extensive comparison of machine learning algorithms in obtaining quantile predictions of daily streamflow under this specific approach. The comparison is performed using a large amount of real-world data retrieved from the Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset. Various climate types are well-represented by the examined catchments. The point predictions are obtained using the GR4J model, a lumped conceptual hydrological model comprising of four parameters, while their post-processing is made by predicting conditional quantiles of the hydrological model's errors. The latter are transformed to conditional quantiles of daily streamflow and finally assessed by using various performance metrics. The machine learning regression algorithms are also benchmarked against the quantile regression algorithm.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1943/1/documents/EGU2019-3576.pdf (33 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Extreme-oriented selection and fitting of probability distributions (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-10398, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15737.11362, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Fitting of theoretical probability distributions to hydrological variables are as imperfect as any model fit to reality. The differences among various models and their discrepancies from reality may be negligible if we are interested about regular events falling in the body of the distribution, but may become substantial for extreme events belonging to the distribution tails. Therefore, the task of selecting and fitting a probability distribution to data becomes more sensitive and demanding when we are interested about extremes and, in particular, when we seek estimates of extremes beyond the observation horizon. The newly introduced concept of knowable (K-) moments, which is also related to order statistics, helps put focus on extremes when fitting probability distributions, simultaneously providing unbiased estimators for moments of order however high in uncorrelated data, or control the estimation bias in data from autocorrelated processes. Both theoretical aspects of extreme-oriented probabilistic modelling and empirical findings from several data sets are reviewed
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1942/1/documents/2018EGU_ExtremeOriented.pdf (1513 KB)
Additional material:
E. Zacharopoulou, I. Tsoukalas, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Impact of sample uncertainty of inflows to stochastic simulation of reservoirs, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-17233, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
Design and management of water resource systems are arguably challenging tasks, as they are mainly driven by hydrological processes that are dominated by “structured” randomness. In this vein, the stochastic simulation of the input processes is regarded an essential component for such studies. Typically, the objective of stochastic models is the generation of long synthetic time series that reproduce the statistical and dependence properties of the historical data, ideally at multiple time scales (including long-term changes, such as those induced by the Hurst-Kolmogorov behavior). However, the sample statistical characteristics that are forced to be reproduced entail an inherent uncertainty, due to the generally short length of historical data. This key shortcoming is not typically accounted for within the current practices. This work is an attempt to investigate and quantify the input uncertainty within stochastic models, and eventually assess its impact on reservoir systems. Towards this, we establish a methodology for the quantification of the sample uncertainty, involving the essential statistical characteristics of historical inflows in a multiscale context, by using as background stochastic simulator the CastaliaR model. Initially, this model is employed for the generation of a large set of synthetic time series with the same length with the historical sample, and thus provide multiple “pseudo-historic” realizations. Subsequently, the statistical properties of the ensemble of pseudo-historic data are extracted and employed to generate long synthetic time series, which are finally used as inputs to a reservoir simulation model. In this context, the above procedure is demonstrated for the derivation of ensembles of storage-yield-reliability relationships. Furthermore, multiple analyses for different sample sizes and Hurst coefficients are performed, aiming to investigate the uncertainty imposed by the sample size and the long-term persistence of the inflow processes.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Koskinas, A., Stochastics and ecohydrology: A study in optimal reservoir design, Dams and Reservoirs, 30(2), 53-59, doi:10.1680/jdare.20.00009, 2020. |
| 2. | Saengsuwan, T., Prediction model for solar PV rooftop production, Journal of Renewable Energy and Smart Grid Technology, 15(2), 16-25, 2020. |
A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, K. Mazi, E. Dimitriou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Strategic plan for establishing a national-scale hydrometric network in Greece: challenges and perspectives, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 21, Vienna, EGU2019-16714, European Geosciences Union, 2019.
The protection and management of water and environmental resources require the availability of reliable data, collected by properly designed, equipped and functioning monitoring networks. However, for many years in Greece, the status of data collection and archiving has been far from adequate, thus preventing the country from managing its water resources properly. Today, a large effort to mitigate this gap is employed, within a recently launched research infrastructure called “Open Hydrosystem Information Network” (OpenHi.net). This aims establishing automatic monitoring systems for the surface water resources at the national scale, accompanied by supporting e-infrastructure (databases and modeling applications), in compliance with the requirements of the relevant EU Directives. Essential component of this initiative is the implementation of a detailed evaluation of all existing measuring infrastructures and associated data, resulting to a strategic planning for the installation of the new monitoring stations across all important rivers, lakes and reservoirs of the country. This presentation summarizes the outcomes of this work, and the experience gained so far from the operation of first pilot stations.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Unknowable and knowable moments: are they relevant to hydrofractals? (Plenary talk), Hydrofractals ’18, Constanta, Romania, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13446.27207, 2018.
Classical statistical moments, sometimes of high order, have been a customary diagnostic tool in fractal analyses of hydroclimatic processes. However, it has been articulated that they cannot be estimated from typical samples for order beyond two. In other words, high-order moments, albeit useful in characterizing certain properties of processes, are mostly unknowable. A class of knowable moments (K-moments) is introduced which virtually contains the classical moments as well as the L-moments. The latter are better estimated form samples, but they all are expectations of linear expressions of the process of interest and thus they cannot characterize even second-order dependence of processes. The K-moments overcome this deficiency of L-moments and are readily expanded to multi-scale analyses of processes. thus providing stochastic tools, such as the K-climacogram and K-climacospectrum, which can potentially be relevant to hydrofractal analyses.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1846/1/documents/2018Hydrofractals.pdf (2621 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Reconstructing the water supply conditions of the Ancient Piraeus, Biennial of Architectural and Urban Restoration (BRAU4), Pireaus, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18049.51044, 2018.
Additional material:
A. Zoukos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Global investigation of the multi-scale probabilistic behaviour of dry spells from rainfall records, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17966-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13555.78886, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Understanding and modelling the rainfall process at fine timescales has been a classic endeavor of hydrology, particularly because of its importance in everyday life, hydrological design and water resources management. At fine timescales, the rainfall process alternates between wet and dry states exhibiting pronounced clustering behavior. Herein, we employ a probabilistic characterization of rainfall intermittency as a two-state process and estimate the probability-dry across a range of timescales from minutes to months. To model the resulting multi-scale behavior, we employ a stochastic model derived from an entropy maximization framework at a multi-scale setting, which was previously found to successfully describe sub-daily rainfall in single case studies. We investigate whether the proposed model is able to capture the wide range of rainfall regimes observed worldwide and discuss its potential generality. Furthermore, we show how such a modelling approach of rainfall intermittency can prove valuable for practical purposes, such as the derivation of ombrian (intensity-duration-frequency) curves.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1824/2/documents/2018EGU_DrySpells.pdf (2215 KB)
Additional material:
V. Skoura, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, M. Crok, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A trendy analysis for the identification of extremal changes and trends in hydroclimatic processes; application to global precipitation, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17889-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
During the last decades it has been trendy to identify trends in extreme phenomena and attribute them to anthropogenic climate change. Although the majority of analyses tend to identify increasing (and sometimes decreasing) trends in hydrometeorological extremes, there are a few works that show no significant change in the distribution tail of the processes. A few analyses have shown that changes in the extremes can be adequately explained by the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behaviour. In this work, we test the tail behaviour of several well-known distributions when combined to an HK model. Finally, we provide illustrative examples on whether or not the observed variability in precipitation extremes could be explained by the HK behaviour.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1823/1/documents/EGU2018-17889-1.pdf (32 KB)
E. Chardavellas, P. Dimitriadis, I. Papakonstantis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Papanicolaou, Stochastic similarities between the microscale of vertical thermal jet and macroscale hydrometeorological processes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17803-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Most hydrometeorological processes (such as temperature, wind etc.) are governed by turbulent state. In this study, we seek for stochastic similarities between the correlation structure of hydrometeorological processes (as has been already derived from global analyses of surface stations) and experimental vertical thermal jet at different states. It is well established experimentally that a jet flow close to the nozzle (at the zone of the core) is laminar and far from the nozzle (at the zone of established flow) fully turbulent. We apply several stochastic tools (autocorrelation, power spectrum, climacogram etc.) at the two aforementioned zones as well as at the intermediate zone of flow establishment (5 to 15 diameters away from the nozzle) in an attempt to identify any stochastic similarities and differences between the three zones, and thus, between the laminar and turbulent flow state transition. For this, spatio-temporal temperature records are obtained on the plane of symmetry of heated vertical round jets (for a laboratory turbulent scale at the order of mm) using tracer concentration measurements via a planar laser induced fluorescence technique (PLIF). Finally, a characterization of jet thermal turbulent state is proposed based on the Hurst parameter that is used for the identification of the long-term persistent behavior (or else called Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour) of a process.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1822/1/documents/EGU2018-17803-1.pdf (32 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulating precipitation at a fine time scale using a single continuous-state distribution, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-18614, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Some hydrometeorological processes such as precipitation are usually modelled as two-state processes distinguishing the wet and dry state and simulating each of the two in different ways. It can be noted that the assignment of either of the two states in observation records involves some difficulties, as the accuracy of measurements in the area of low values is problematic. This is even more perplexed by the fact that the low values are the most frequent as in most rainfall records, measured at a fine temporal scale, the mode of the continuous part of the distribution is zero. However, the separation in two states may not be necessary. Here we apply a modelling framework of geophysical processes, such as precipitation, without treating them as two-state processes but with a single continuous-type distribution, which has very high densities at values close to zero. This requires the simulation of arbitrary marginal distributions, with very high skewness and kurtosis, as well as ability to preserve any dependence structure. These requirements can be satisfied in a rather simple manner using a recent simulation framework (Dimitriadis and Koutsoyiannis, 2017), which is here tested with fine time scale precipitation.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1821/1/documents/EGU2018-18614.pdf (32 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An innovative stochastic process and simulation algorithm for approximating any dependence structure and marginal distribution, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-18710, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
We present an innovative stochastic framework for the approximation of any dependence structure and marginal distribution. This framework is based on the concepts of ergodicity, stationarity and homogenization and can adequately simulate (through implicit and explicit methods) the correlation structure (from small to large scales), marginal distribution (with focus on the extreme left and right tails), internal periodicities (such as diurnal and seasonal) as well as certain aspects of the intermittent behaviour. We further introduce a flexible stochastic process and we apply it (following the suggested framework) to an abundant number of geophysical processes (such as temperature, dew-point, relative humidity, wind, streamflow, precipitation, atmospheric pressure and several turbulent microscale processes) and we seek for stochastic similarities in between them. Interestingly, all the examined processes exhibit fractal behaviour (at the small scales) and Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour (at the large scales).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1820/1/documents/EGU2018-18710.pdf (30 KB)
K. Sakellari, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A global stochastic analysis for the temperature and dew-point processes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17941-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Temperature and dew-point (or equivalently relative humidity) are considered as the most characteristic atmospheric process related to climate dynamics. In this study, we present an integrated stochastic framework, which can describe and simulate both the second-order dependence structure and the marginal distribution simultaneously. We use a large dataset comprising hourly temperature and dew point records around the globe to identify stochastic similarities and patterns. Based on these results we construct a parsimonious stochastic model that is based on entropy maximization and that can adequately simulate the correlation structure, extreme (left and right) tails, intermittent effects and internal double (diurnal and seasonal) periodicities.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1819/1/documents/EGU2018-17941-1.pdf (31 KB)
M. Chalakatevaki, E. Klousakou, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the uncertainty of hydrometeorological processes by means of the climacogram, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17714-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
An important characteristic of the atmospheric processes is their inherent uncertainty. As randomness and predictability coexist and are intrinsic to natural systems, these systems can be treated as deterministic and random at the same time, depending on the prediction horizon and the time scale. Specifically, the more complex a process is, the larger the Hurst parameter, which quantifies a natural behaviour (called Hurst-Kolmogorov HK), identified in numerous geophysical processes. Although several methods can be used to estimate the Hurst parameter, the climacogram (i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. scale; Koutsoyiannis, 2003) is one of the most powerful ones, with a lower statistical estimation uncertainty compared to the autocovariance and power spectrum. We apply the climacogram to real-world timeseries from various atmospheric processes in order to infer their dependence structure, characterize them and compare their degree of uncertainty across different timescales.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1818/1/documents/EGU2018-17714-1.pdf (31 KB)
G. Karakatsanis, E. Kontarakis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydroclimate and agricultural output in developing countries, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-13059-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
According to international data on developing countries we observe a strong correlation of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to their agricultural output, suggesting that a large fraction of total income in the developing world derives from domestic agricultural value added. In addition, the significant lack of irrigation infrastructure (e.g. reservoirs and irrigation networks) forces these countries’ income into strong dependence from local hydroclimatological conditions; as the majority of crop output is -in turn- based on rain-fed agriculture. In our work we examine -via annual time-series analysis- the temporal dynamics between hydroclimate data (mainly precipitation), GDP, agricultural value added and the international prices of agricultural commodities, for developing countries, in order to study how these variables are mutually entwined in time. Furthermore, we perform various econometric tests on their correlation validity. An important aspect of our work concerns the detection of change in the composition of the economies of developing countries. Specifically, as developing countries acquire infrastructure it is highly probable to expect a gradual decoupling of the climate-agricultural output-GDP relationship.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1817/1/documents/EGU2018-13059-1.pdf (33 KB)
T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic index based on a two-state process to quantify clustering of rainfall extremes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-9777, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Long term persistence, also known as Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behavior, is an intrinsic property of various geophysical processes, resulting among others in the temporal clustering of extremes. In the rainfall process, the latter signifies a pronounced clustering of wet and/or dry periods. While several indexes of clustering exist, attempts to quantitatively relate clustering behavior to HK dynamics have been in general limited. We devise a simple metric based on a two-state process (inspired by the probability-dry concept of the rainfall process) across different temporal scales which fully describes the multi-scale clustering behavior of extremes and links it to the persistence magnitude of the parent process. We test the index on real-world long rainfall series and provide analytical equations for various combinations of persistence magnitude and distribution type of the extremes generating process.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1816/1/documents/EGU2018-9777.pdf (31 KB)
A. Tegos, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the correlation structure and probability distribution of the global potential evapotranspiration, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17849-3, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
We investigate the second-order dependence structure and marginal probability distribution of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) determined by a recently proposed parametric model at several locations worldwide. The dependence structure is estimated through the climacogram (i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. scale of averaging), which has some advantages over other stochastic metrics (such as autocovariance and power-spectrum). Furthermore, we discuss stochastic similarities and cross-correlations of the PET with the corresponding temperature, dew-point and wind.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1815/1/documents/EGU2018-17849-3.pdf (30 KB)
E. Volpi, A. Fiori, S. Grimaldi, F. Lombardo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Complete time-series frequency analysis: return period estimation for time-dependent processes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-10439, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Risk analysis relies on finding the probability of failure of a given hydraulic structure/system, usually expressed in terms of return period, as a consequence of the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. In order to quantify risk conditions or design mitigation strategies, a probability distribution function is inferred after a series of observations of the random variable of interest. Frequency analysis is performed under the hypotheses of stationarity and independence of the observations, that are typically assumed as necessary conditions for return period equation (i.e. the inverse of exceedance probability). Specifically, to allow the assumption of the statistical independence of the observations, it is common practice in hydrological applications to implement some techniques for data selection, such as annual maxima or peak over threshold; this implies that some observations are a-priori discarded before the analysis. However, it was recently demonstrated that, under the stationarity assumption, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period. Here, we illustrate and discuss how return period can be directly estimated from data records of time-dependent processes without applying any data selection strategy, i.e. potentially exploiting all the information provided by observations.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1814/1/documents/EGU2018-10439.pdf (31 KB)
G. Papacharalampous, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Toy models for increasing the understanding on stochastic process-based modelling, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-1900-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Montanari and Koutsoyiannis (2012) have introduced a novel blueprint for hydrological modelling with the aim to integrate deterministic process-based modelling and uncertainty quantification within a stochastic framework (hereafter “bMK”). The outcome of this integration is referred to as “stochastic process-based modelling”, while the term “stochastic” conjointly represents probability, statistics and stochastic processes. The bMK is provided by an analytically derived theoretical scheme for the quantification of the global uncertainty in the output of deterministic models. The analytical formulation of this theoretical scheme can be replaced in practice by a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm, which simulates the stochastic model comprising the deterministic one and is a part of a larger algorithmic approach. The adopted methodological tools and assumptions within a specific approach can largely affect the quality of the provided solution. Therefore, any possible algorithmic procedure for the implementation of the bMK should be thoroughly examined. Herein, we adopt the toy model research method to conduct several controlled experiments of large scale. These experiments focus on specific research questions, all of them aiming to increase the understanding on the theoretical scheme under discussion. This understanding is fundamental for dealing with the additional theoretical, algorithmic and computational requirements implied by the choice to perform stochastic process-based modelling, instead of deterministic process-based modelling.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1813/1/documents/EGU2018-1900-1.pdf (33 KB)
G.-F. Sargentis, R. Ioannidis, G. Karakatsanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The scale of infrastructures as a social decision. Case study: dams in Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17082, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Organized societies require specific infrastructures, among which hydraulic projects are most important. Thus, for the functioning of a society, the water supply and drainage are prerequisites, while a new modern society also needs renewable energy in addition to, and in connection with, high quality water. Dams are key infrastructures in this process. Modern economic and social conditions do not define the limits of what we call "development". In this research we are mapping the limits of the development based on the capacity of the landscape, the water resources, the finances, the political aspects and the criteria of a city’s development.
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G.-F. Sargentis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour in arts, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17740-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
The Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behaviour (i.e. power-law decrease of the process variance vs. scale of averaging) has been already identified in numerous geophysical processes highlighting the large uncertainty of Nature in all time scales. In this study, we investigate through the climacogram whether or not some art works (such as paintings, music pieces and poems) also exhibit this behaviour and try to interpret the results in terms of (un)predictability in works of art.
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S. Sigourou, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, A. Skopeliti, K. Sakellari, G. Karakatsanis, L. Tsoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparison of climate change vs. urbanization, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-18598-2, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Urbanization has long been identified as one of the major human impacts on the micro-climate of urban areas and has been linked to large (and often disastrous) changes into several hydroclimatic processes such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. However, climate change studies have rarely separated the urban local-scale influence from the global one. In this study, we thoroughly investigate and compare the changes in the variability of the above hydroclimatic processes in urban regions and in the ones with small or negligible human impact. The analysis includes global historical databases of the above processes as well as of the urbanization impact through land-use change.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1810/1/documents/EGU2018-18598-2.pdf (31 KB)
S. Sigourou, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, A. Skopeliti, K. Sakellari, G. Karakatsanis, L. Tsoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistical and stochastic comparison of climate change vs. urbanization, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-18608-2, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Urbanization has long been identified as one of the major human impacts on the micro-climate of urban areas and has been linked to large (and often disastrous) changes into several hydroclimatic processes such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. However, climate change studies have rarely separated the urban local-scale influence from the global one. In this study, we thoroughly investigate and compare the changes in the variability of the above hydroclimatic processes in urban regions and in the ones with small or negligible human impact. The analysis includes Monte-Carlo experiments to assess how the aforementioned variability can be simulated through a stochastic model.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1809/1/documents/EGU2018-18608-2.pdf (31 KB)
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A step further from model-fitting for the assessment of the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-864, doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.7325783.v1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
“With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk”,∼John von Neumann. This famous quote, literally possible as proved by Mayer et al. (2010), has been widely used to question the parsimony of a model providing a good description of the available data. Still, a significant part of the hydrological literature insists in adding parameters, trend or of other type, to models to increase their descriptive power within the concept of geophysical time series analysis and without testing their predictive ability. Herein, we move a step further from model-fitting and actually run in forecast mode several automatic univariate time series models with the aim to assess the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation. We examine a sample of 985 monthly temperature and 1552 monthly precipitation time series, observed at stations covering a significant part of the Earth’s surface and, therefore, including various real-world process behaviours. All the time series are 40-years long with no missing values. We compare the naïve based on the monthly values of the last year, ARFIMA, exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing (SES), Theta and Prophet forecasting methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series in the past, while the use of BATS, SES and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. The results are summarized in global scores, while their examination by group of stations leads to 5 individual scores for temperature and 6 for precipitation. The groups are formed according to the geographical vicinity of the stations. The findings suggest that all the examined models are accurate enough to be used in long-term forecasting applications. For the total of the temperature time series the use of an ARFIMA, BATS, SES, Theta or Prophet model, instead of the naïve method, leads in about 19-29% more accurate forecasts in terms of root mean square error, or even in about 30-32% more accurate forecasts specifically for the temperature time series observed in North Europe. For the total of the precipitation time series the use of all these automatic methods leads in about 21-22% better forecasts than the use of the naïve method, while for the geographical regions of North America, North Europe and East Asia these percentages are 26-29%, 22-24% and 32-38% respectively. We think that the level of the forecasting accuracy can barely be improved using other methods, as indicated by the experiments of Papacharalampous et al. (2017).
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Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, From mythology to science: the development of scientific hydrological concepts in the Greek antiquity (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-10143-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
While hydrology is a Greek word (υδρoλoγία, from ύδωρ = water and λόγoς = reason), it has not been in use in the classical literature but much later, during the Renaissance, in its Latin version, hydrologia. On the other hand, Greek natural philosophers created robust knowledge in related scientific areas, to which they gave names such as meteorology (μετεωρoλoγία, cf. Aristotle’s “Meteorologica”), climate (κλίμα, κλιματικός, cf. Hipparchus, “Ton Aratou kai Eudoxou Phainomenon Exegeseon”) and hydraulics (υδραυλική, cf. Hero’s of Alexandria “Pneumatica”). These terms are now in common use internationally. Within these areas, Greek natural philosophers laid the foundation of hydrological concepts and the hydrological cycle in its entirety. Knowledge development was brought about by search for technological solutions to practical problems, as well as by scientific curiosity to explain natural phenomena. While initial explanations of nature belong to the sphere of mythology, the rise of philosophy was accompanied by attempts to provide scientific descriptions of the phenomena. It appears that the first geophysical problem formulated in scientific terms was the explanation of the flood regime of the Nile, then regarded as a paradox because of the spectacular difference from the behaviour of rivers in Greece, i.e. the fact that Nile flooding occurs in summer when rainfall in Egypt is very low to non-existent. Revisiting the variety of attempted explanations for this ‘paradox’, from Homer’s mythical view (archaic period) to Eratosthenes’s correct scientific exegesis (Hellenistic period) we can trace out the evolution of science in the Greek antiquity.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1801/2/documents/2018EGUFromMythologyToScience.pdf (6032 KB)
Additional material:
P. Dimitriadis, H. Tyralis, T. Iliopoulou, K. Tzouka, Y. Markonis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A climacogram estimator adjusted for timeseries length; application to key hydrometeorological processes by the Köppen-Geiger classification, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17832, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
We present a climacogram estimator (variance of the scaled process vs. scale) that employs all the available information through a pooled time series estimation approach. This method does not discard time-series of short length or of high percentage of missing values; a common practice in hydrometeorology. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the second-order dependence structure (overall and classified by the Köppen-Geiger system) over the last two climatic periods (60 years) for several processes (temperature, dew-point, wind, precipitation, river discharge and atmospheric pressure) using worldwide surface stations. This analysis is performed based on the standardized climacogram, which shows numerous benefits compared to the autocorrelation and standardized power-spectrum.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1800/1/documents/EGU2018-17832.pdf (34 KB)
T. Iliopoulou, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimating seasonality in river flows, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-12772, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Seasonal flow prediction is crucial for various aspects of intra-annual water resources management, including flood protection and drought management. To exploit the degree of predictability encompassed in the seasonal flow formation processes, one needs first and foremost a characterization of the seasonality of the process of interest both in terms of timing and magnitude. Yet there exists no single approach but several methodologies varying in scope and characteristics. In this study, we compare two approaches of different rationale in their performance as part of a seasonal flow prediction scheme. The first one identifies high and low flow periods within a year through a fixed time-window method centered around the months receiving the majority of maximum and minimum flows respectively, while the second is based on the identification of an optimal number of seasons allowed to have varying lengths. We characterize the seasonal regime within the year by means of the two methods and we employ a meta-Gaussian bivariate model to condition selected flow signatures in the seasons of interest, i.e. peak or mean flows, on the mean flows observed in the previous season. The model is used to update the flow distribution one season in advance upon observance of a mean flow of certain magnitude in the previous season. In this framework, we compare the two seasonality approaches in terms of robustness, objectivity, efficiency and in their overall relevance for the purpose of seasonal flood and drought prediction.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1799/1/documents/EGU2018-12772.pdf (31 KB)
A. Pizarro, P. Dimitriadis, C. Samela, D. Koutsoyiannis, O. Link, and S. Manfreda, Discharge uncertainty on bridge scour process, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-8045, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Floods are one of the most important factors on the bridge scour process. However, the uncertainty related to discharge is high due to the presence of clustering effects, the use of outdated rating curves, and the practical issue of measuring at extreme conditions. In this context, employing the best scour model with an uncertain discharge input leads to unreliable scour estimations. The goal of this research seeks to quantify the scour uncertainty due to the discharge uncertainty using stochastic tools and the BRISENT model [Pizarro et al., 2017] for discharge and scour analysis, respectively. To this aim, we examine several stations covering small and large temporal scales of the river discharge. These stations are selected under the criterion of ensuring low human influence on the natural process. The stochastic structure of discharge is modeled fitting the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behavior in terms of the climacogram and a discharge generator was constructed based on the assumptions of homogeneity, stationarity, and ergodicity. Monte Carlo simulations of flood events coupled with the BRISENT model allow computing both the maximum scour depth for a fixed time interval (for instance, the bridge life) and the scour depth evolution over time. Results show that assuming a bridge life of 100 years and sufficient number of discharge simulations leads to a fixed non-exceedance scour probability distribution. Finally, the scour expected value is compared with two widely used in practice equilibrium scour predictive methods, i.e. (1) HEC-18 [Richardson and Davis, 2001], and (2) Chinese equation [Gao et al., 1993].
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1797/1/documents/EGU2018-8045.pdf (34 KB)
A. Pizarro, P. Dimitriadis, M. Chalakatevaki, C. Samela, S. Manfreda, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An integrated stochastic model of the river discharge process with emphasis on floods and bridge scour, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-8271, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Floods have an important influence on society, being able to affect human life, human properties and also cultural heritage. Nevertheless, the dynamics of floods and their interaction with infrastructure over time is still unexplored. Therefore, there is a significant need for the development of new hydrologic and hydraulic modeling techniques able to represent the process in a realistic way. With this aim, the stochastic structure of the discharge has been modeled by a generalized Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) process in terms of dependence structure (from long to short term) and marginal distribution (from left to right distribution tail). Several long length discharge time series have been filtered with the aim to ensure a minimum human influence on the discharge regime. Time series were analyzed using the climacogram stochastic tool for the analysis because of its good properties, such as small statistical errors, a priori known bias and a mean close to its mode. Finally, a general and parsimonious discharge model, with emphasis on floods, is coupled with a hydraulic model for long run numerical simulations. The authors are seeking to apply these ideas to evaluate the hydraulic infrastructure risk due to the discharge uncertainty and, in particular, to assess the bridge scour risk.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1796/1/documents/EGU2018-8271.pdf (33 KB)
A. Gkolemis, P. Dimitriadis, G. Karakatsanis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic investigation of the intermittent behaviour of wind; application to renewable energy resources management, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-15979-3, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
A challenging characteristic of renewable energy systems is intermittence of the related natural processes (such as wind), whose management imposes an additional cost. This also implies the need to immediate back up the extra supply (introduced by the resource’s physical bursts) to other units (e.g. in a hybrid pumped storage hydropower system). The complexity of this issue does not just rely on the need for optimizing the hybrid system but rather on the requirement for simulating these bursts. In this study, we introduce and test an innovative model for the wind process by simultaneously preserving not only the marginal distribution (including extreme events), correlation structure (from small to large scales) and internal double (diurnal and seasonal) periodicities but also its intermittent behaviour. Furthermore, we present a pilot application including a pumped storage hydropower system and we show how the additional cost imposed by the intermittent behaviour of wind can be estimated.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1795/1/documents/EGU2018-15979-3.pdf (33 KB)
Y. Kalogeris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, V. Papadopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of the correlation structure behaviour through intermediate storage retention, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17247-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
A typical problem in stochastic dynamics is the change of variability of a process through intermediate storage retention. In this study, we perform exhaustive Monte-Carlo experiments as to quantify this change through the estimation of the autovariance function, power-spectrum and climacogram (i.e. variance of scaled process vs. scale) and with focus in short-term (e.g. Markov or powered-exponential) and long-term (such as Hurst-Kolmogorov) processes. Also, we show how the simulation methods and results from this analysis can be used to perform a sensitivity analysis to real case applications of seismic activity through geological formations as well as of rainfall-runoff cross-correlations through soil.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1794/1/documents/EGU2018-17247-1.pdf (29 KB)
K. Tzouka, P. Dimitriadis, E. Varouchakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the correlation structure of two-dimensional images of rocks from small to large scales, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17306-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
We investigate the drop of variance vs. scale for geostatistical processes through the use of the climacogram-based variogram (CBV) and climacogram-based power-spectrum (CBS), where climacogram is the (plot of) variance of the space-averaged process vs. the spatial scale. Focus is given to the small and medium scale properties of the rocks and an attempt is made to link the CBV and CBS with these and provide certain stochastic characteristics based on their composition and resolution. The analysis is based both on microscale and macroscale data, as extracted from grayscale images of rocks. Also, comparisons are made, through Monte-Carlo experiments, to the autocovariance-based metrics (such as variogram and power-spectrum) for a variety of common (white noise, Markov and Hurst-Kolmogorov) processes. Finally, a parsimonious model is proposed that can adequately describe the second-order dependence structure of rocks for a large variety of scales.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1793/1/documents/EGU2018-17306-1.pdf (31 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, E. Varouchakis, T. Iliopoulou, G. Karatzas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the spatial variability of precipitation over Crete, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17155-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
The island of Crete is located at the Eastern Mediterranean and is expected to be significantly affected by future climatic variations. The island is monitored from 82 rainfall stations that cover the whole area of the island. Information is available at monthly and annual basis since 1981. This work examines potential spatial and temporal rainfall variability by employing statistical tools (such as the climacogram, i.e. variance of the scaled process vs. scale) to identify potential similarities in the dependence structure and marginal probability distribution. Finally, the spatial analysis involves the application of novel spatial dependence functions as well as a common expression for the correlation structure and marginal density distribution.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1792/1/documents/EGU2018-17155-1.pdf (30 KB)
M. Nezi, P. Dimitriadis, A. Pizarro, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the streamflow process adjusted for human impact, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17473-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
The streamflow process is important in water resources management and although it has been thoroughly examined in a stochastic framework, still an integrated model that takes into account the human impact has not yet been thoroughly studied. Here we examine several datasets, in numerous locations under different climatic regimes, with long time series comprising streamflow measurements from small and large catchments in order to identify patterns induced by human impact and in particular streamflow regulation by upstream reservoirs. Based on the above results and on the concepts of ergodicity, stationarity and homogeneity, we try to identify stochastic similarities in regulated flow regimes in different catchments.
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G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, G. Karakatsanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic model for hourly solar radiation process applied in renewable resources management, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-16275-2, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the scientific community has made huge leaps to exploit renewable energy sources, with solar radiation being one of the most important. However, the variability of solar radiation has a significant impact on solar energy conversion systems, such as in photovoltaic systems, characterized by a fast and non-linear response to incident solar radiation. The performance prediction of these systems is typically based on hourly or daily data because those are usually available at these time scales. The aim of this work is to investigate the stochastic nature and time evolution of the solar radiation process in a daily and hourly step on a monthly basis scale, with the ultimate goal of creating a stochastic model capable of generating hourly solar radiation. For this purpose, an analysis was initially made at stations in Greece and then on a global scale. We propose a distribution that can adequately describe daily solar radiation and a new distribution consisting of the sum of two known distribution functions that is capable of capturing all aspects of the hourly solar radiation. Also, we exploit the clear sky index coefficient (T) for the double periodicity of the process, so as to achieve an integrated framework for the description of the solar radiation at all scales. Also, we use statistical tests and selection criteria, in order to verify the goodness of fit of the selected distribution. Then, we propose a cyclostationary model that can handle long-term persistence and reproduce the clear sky index coefficient (KT). The model can preserve the probability density function and also the dependence structure. Finally, we apply the proposed stochastic model to a theoretical case of renewable energy management, with an ultimate goal to maximize the financial profit of the production system.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1790/1/documents/EGU2018-16275-2.pdf (32 KB)
E. Klousakou, M. Chalakatevaki, R. Tomani, P. Dimitriadis, A. Efstratiadis, T. Iliopoulou, R. Ioannidis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the uncertainty of atmospheric processes related to renewable energy resources, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-16982-2, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Renewable energy resources, e.g., wind and solar energy, are characterized by great degree of uncertainty and in general, limited predictability, because of the irregular variability of the related geophysical processes. A simple and robust measure of the inherent uncertainty of a process is the Hurst parameter. Specifically, the more complex a process is, the larger the introduced uncertainty (unpredictability) and the larger the Hurst parameter. This behaviour (called Hurst-Kolmogorov, HK) has been identified in numerous geophysical processes. Although there are several methods for estimating the Hurst parameter, the climacogram (i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. scale of averaging) is one of the most powerful ones, with a lower statistical estimation uncertainty compared to the autocovariance and power spectrum. We apply the climacogram method to timeseries from processes related to renewable energy systems (wind, solar, ocean etc.) with the aim to characterize their degree of uncertainty and predictability across different timescales. We compare results among the different processes and we provide real-world examples of renewable energy systems management to illustrate the technical relevance of our findings.
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P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, A. Efstratiadis, P. Papanicolaou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of the uncertainty in common rating-curve relationships, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-18947-2, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
A common issue in the river analysis is that most discharges measurements are taken from stage measurements and then an empirical expression is applied often called rating curves. There are several empirical relationships to determine the rating curves in order to estimate the river discharge when the water-surface is known and vice versa. Here, we investigate the stochastic uncertainty induced in empirical expressions of common rating curves. For this, we perform exhaustive Monte-Carlo experiments by assuming a theoretical stochastic structure (with or without fixed trends) for the river stage and we estimate the change in the dependence structure and marginal distribution of the river discharge. We further perform a sensitivity analysis on the input parameters of the common stage-discharge expressions in order to identify and estimate the overall induced uncertainty. Finally, we discuss on the results and we derive some preliminary conclusions on whether a stochastic structure (including trends) empirically estimated in terms of stage can be arbitrarily translated into discharge.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1787/1/documents/EGU2018-18947-2.pdf (31 KB)
G. Markopoulos-Sarikas, C. Ntigkakis, P. Dimitriadis, G. Papadonikolaki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Stamou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, How probable was the flood inundation in Mandra? A preliminary urban flood inundation analysis, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17527-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
A recent flash flood event in the Mandra region west of Athens, Greece, turned urban roads into fast-flowing rivers, and caused many fatalities and economic damages. After this incident a great dispute arose whether the devastating results were due to the extreme nature of the storm event or to the poor flood protection works. In this study, we present a preliminary analysis of the urban flood inundation at the wider area by taking into account the uncertainty introduced by the input discharge, topography and hydraulic characteristics. Finally, we discuss how hydraulic works could reduce the severity of the event.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Diakakis, M., N. Boufidis, J. M. Salanova Grau, E. Andreadakis, and I. Stamos, A systematic assessment of the effects of extreme flash floods on transportation infrastructure and circulation: The example of the 2017 Mandra flood, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 47, 101542, doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101542, 2020. |
| 2. | Kanellopoulos, T. D., A. P. Karageorgis, A. Kikaki, S. Chourdaki, I. Hatzianestis, I. Vakalas, and G.-A. Hatiris, The impact of flash-floods on the adjacent marine environment: the case of Mandra and Nea Peramos (November 2017), Greece, Journal of Coastal Conservation, 24, 56, doi:10.1007/s11852-020-00772-6, 2020. |
| 3. | Diakakis, Μ., G. Deligiannakis, Z. Antoniadis, M. Melaki, N. K. Katsetsiadou, E. Andreadakis, N. I. Spyrou, and M. Gogou, Proposal of a flash flood impact severity scale for the classification and mapping of flash flood impacts, Journal of Hydrology, 590, 125452, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125452, 2020. |
C. Ntigkakis, G. Markopoulos-Sarikas, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, A. D. Koussis, K. Mazi, D. Katsanos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological investigation of the catastrophic flood event in Mandra, Western Attica, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-17591-1, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
A recent storm event, of substantial yet unknown local intensity, in Western Attica (west of Athens, Greece) has caused a flash flood with many fatalities in the city of Mandra as well as material damages. After this incident a debate started on whether the devastating results were due to the extreme nature of the rainfall event or to the poor flood protection works. In this study, we present information gathered from several sources (including hydrometric data from a neighboring catchment, point rainfall data from the broader area of interest, satellite observations and audiovisual material) in an attempt to represent the rainfall-runoff event. We further analyze the available data to approximately estimate the return period of the storm event. Finally, we discuss on the feasibility of the prediction of this storm.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kanellopoulos, T. D., A. P. Karageorgis, A. Kikaki, S. Chourdaki, I. Hatzianestis, I. Vakalas, and G.-A. Hatiris, The impact of flash-floods on the adjacent marine environment: the case of Mandra and Nea Peramos (November 2017), Greece, Journal of Coastal Conservation, 24, 56, doi:10.1007/s11852-020-00772-6, 2020. |
I. Anyfanti, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Efstratiadis, Handling the computation effort of time-demanding water-energy simulation models through surrogate approaches, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-12110, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
We investigate the computational challenges of a model for the integrated simulation – optimization of water and renewable energy fluxes, based on an example (hypothetical) hybrid water – energy system at a small non-connected island (Astypalaia, Greece). The system consists of a hydroelectric reservoir with pumped storage facilities, connected with system of wind and solar power plants. The model runs on hourly time step, using as inputs rainfall and temperature data, data for the water supply, irrigation and electric energy demands, as well as energy production data from wind and solar resources. The reservoir system attempts to fulfill the two water demands and regulate the energy excesses and deficits. Due to the fine time step of calculations and the use of synthetic time series of long horizon, the computational burden of simulation runs in an optimization framework is significant. In an attempt to minimize the computational load, particularly in optimizations, we investigate the use of surrogate approaches, through black-box sub-models (e.g., neural networks) that represent autonomous parts of the whole simulation procedure. The outcomes of surrogate models are compared with the corresponding outputs of the original model.
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A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Effective combination of stochastic and deterministic hydrological models in a changing environment, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 20, Vienna, EGU2018-11989, European Geosciences Union, 2018.
Water resource systems are subject to continuous changes, at all temporal scales. Changes are induced due to the inherently varying meteorological processes, anthropogenic interventions of all kinds, as well as other exogenous factors modifying the system characteristics. Traditionally, stochastic models, for generating synthetic input data, and deterministic hydrological models, for representing anticipated or hypothesized environmental changes, have been regarded as alternative approaches to provide future projections of the system responses. Given that both approaches are driven by historical data, they are restricted by the limited, and sometimes misinterpreted, information of past observations. Using examples from real-world hydrosystems, we propose a nonlinear stochastic framework, by coupling stochastic and deterministic models, which aims to take full advantage of the existing data and understanding. A central assumption is that all key uncertain aspects of the overall simulation procedure are expressed in stochastic terms (including model parameters and water demands, among others), while major uncertainties with respect to changing processes that cannot be captured by past data are consistently represented through the Hurst-Kolmogorov paradigm.
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P. Dimitriadis, K. Tzouka, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of rock anisotropy based on the climacogram, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-10632-1, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Anisotropy plays an important role on rock properties and entails valuable information for many fields of applied geology and engineering. Many methods are developed in order to detect transitions from isotropy to anisotropy but as a scale–depended effect, anisotropy also needs to be determined in multiple scales. We investigate the application of a stochastic tool, the climacogram (i.e. variance of the averaged process vs. scale) to characterize anisotropy in rocks at different length scales through image processing. The data are pictures from laboratory, specifically thin sections, and pictures of rock samples and rock formations in the field in order to examine anisotropy in nano, micro and macroscale.
Additional material:
T. Iliopoulou, C. Aguilar , B. Arheimer, M. Bermúdez, N. Bezak, A. Ficchi, D. Koutsoyiannis, J. Parajka, M. J. Polo, G. Thirel, and A. Montanari, Investigating the physical basis of river memory and application to flood frequency prediction, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
We investigate the long memory properties of 224 european rivers spanning more than 50 years of daily flow data. For this purpose, we identify two periods of interest; High Flow Seasons (HFS) as 3-month periods receiving the maximum occurrences of peaks-over-threshold flows and Dry Months (DM) as 1-month periods with the minimum average flow. We compute the lagged seasonal correlation for the peak flows in the HFS and the average flows in the DM both against the average flows in the antecedent months. The HFS and DM correlations are compared in terms of magnitude and variability and both are linked to geophysical river characteristics, e.g. basin size and baseflow index along with various site-specific catchment controls (e.g. lakes, glaciers etc.). Through a Meta-Gaussian data assimilation approach, we explore the benefit from conditioning the peak flow distribution in the HFS upon observance of a higher-than-usual (e.g. 95th quantile) flow in the pre-HFS month. To this end, the estimated correlation between the peak flows in HFS and average flows in the pre-HFS month is employed in fitting a bivariate Meta-Gaussian probability distribution model. The benefit of the suggested approach is showcased by updating the flood frequency distribution in real-world applications. Our findings suggest that river memory has a prominent physical basis and a high technical relevance in the case of seasonal flood frequency prediction.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1771/1/documents/EGU2017-14533.pdf (36 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Identifying the dependence structure of a process through pooled timeseries analysis, IAHS Scientific Assembly 2017, Port Elizabeth, South Africa, IAHS Press, Wallingford – International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2017.
Geophysical processes are known to exhibit significant departures from time-independence, ranging from short-range Markovian structure to Hurst-Kolmogorov behavior with large Hurst parameters. However, the identification of the dependence structure of a process is subject to many uncertainties, namely model uncertainty and estimation uncertainty particularly arising from the short length of available timeseries. Here we apply the climacogram (i.e. plot of the variance of the averaged process vs. scale) estimation method which has been shown to be the more robust and less uncertain among various stochastic metrics for the characterization of time-dependence. We further investigate the possibility of eliminating the sampling uncertainty by adequately employing all the available information through a pooled timeseries estimation approach, instead of discarding time-series of short length or of high percentage of missing values as typically performed in such tasks. We compare the merits and demerits of each approach as related to the strength of the dependence structure, the number and sample size of the available timeseries.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1770/1/documents/IAHS2017-182-1.pdf (196 KB)
H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An extensive review and comparison of R Packages on the long-range dependence estimators, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 14th Annual Meeting, Singapore, HS06-A003, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18837.22249, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 2017.
The long-range dependence (LRD) is a well-established property of climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. A long list of estimators of the LRD parameters exist while a few comparison studies of their properties have been published. The emergence of R as one of the favourite programming languages among the hydrological community and its increasing number of packages enable the fast implementation of statistical methods in hydrological studies. Many R packages include functions for the estimation of the parameter, which characterizes the LRD, e.g. the Hurst parameter of the Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour or the d parameter of the ARFIMA model. Here we present an extensive review of all R packages containing functions used to estimate the LRD parameter. Furthermore, we examine the properties of the implemented estimators and we perform an extended simulation experiment to compare them.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1721/1/documents/AOGS-HS06-A003presentation.pdf (1829 KB)
Additional material:
H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The Bayesian Processor of Forecasts on the probabilistic forecasting of long-range dependent variables using General Circulation Models, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 14th Annual Meeting, Singapore, HS20-A002, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15481.77922, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 2017.
We derive the distribution of the mean annual temperature and precipitation in the USA for the time period 2016-2100 conditional on observations from the time period 1916-2015 and ensembles from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To this end, we model the mean annual temperature and precipitation with the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process (HKp, also known as Fractional Gaussian noise) to represent their long-range dependence (LRD). The HKp is a suitable model for climatic variables as has thoroughly been examined in the literature, while it can produce probabilistic forecasts conditional on historical observations. To improve the forecasts using the CMIP5 model ensembles, we apply the Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF), which is a well-established technique used to forecast probabilistically weather and climatic variables conditional on a deterministic model output. The BPF is a general algorithm in the sense that it can be applied to any distribution and dependence pattern of the variables. However, it has been analysed theoretically and numerically solely for independent or Markov dependent variables. Here we extend its application to LRD dependent variables. The computation of uncertainties of climate projections is a mainstream subject in the climate literature and here we show that the BPF can be a sufficient solution.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1720/1/documents/AOGS-HS20-A002presentation.pdf (1895 KB)
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Large scale simulation experiments for the assessment of one-step ahead forecasting properties of stochastic and machine learning point estimation methods, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 14th Annual Meeting, Singapore, HS06-A002, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33273.77923, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 2017.
The research in geophysical sciences often focuses on the comparison between stochastic and machine learning (ML) point estimation methods for time series forecasting. The comparisons performed are usually based on case studies. The present study aims to provide generalized results regarding the one-step ahead forecasting properties of several popular forecasting methods. This problem cannot be examined analytically, mainly because of the nature of the ML methods. Therefore, we conduct large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. Regarding the methodology, we compare a total of 20 methods among which 9 ML methods. Three of the latter methods are build using a neural networks algorithm, other three using a random forests algorithm and the remaining three using a support vector machines algorithm. The stochastic methods include simple methods, models from the frequently used families of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Exponential Smoothing models. We perform 12 simulation experiments, each of them using 2 000 simulated time series. The time series are simulated using a stochastic model from the families of ARMA and ARFIMA models. The comparative assessment of the methods is based on the error and the absolute error of the forecast of the last observation.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1719/1/documents/AOGS-HS06-A002presentation.pdf (4029 KB)
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A set of metrics for the effective evaluation of point forecasting methods used for hydrological tasks, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 14th Annual Meeting, Singapore, HS01-A001, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19852.00641, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 2017.
The selection of metrics for the evaluation of point forecasting methods can be challenging even for very experienced hydrologists. We conduct a large-scale computational experiment based on simulations to compare the information that 18 metrics proposed in the literature give about the forecasting performance. Our purpose is to provide generalized results; thus we use 2 000 simulated Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average time series. We apply several forecasting methods and we compute the values of the metrics for each forecasting experiment. Subsequently, we measure the correlation between the values of each pair of metrics, separately for each forecasting method. Furthermore, we explore graphically the detected relationships. Finally, we propose a set of metrics that we consider to be suitable for the effective evaluation of point forecasting methods.
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T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigating links between Long-Range Dependence in mean rainfall and clustering of extreme rainfall, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-9890-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25992.21763, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Clustering of extremes is a statistical behavior often observed in geophysical timeseries. However, it is usually studied independently of the theoretical framework of Long-Range Dependence, or the Hurst-Kolmogorov behavior, which provides consistent theoretical and practical tools for identifying it and understanding it. Herein, a dataset of daily rainfall records spanning more than 150 years is studied in order to investigate the dependence properties of extreme rainfall at the annual and seasonal timescale. The same investigation is carried out for mean rainfall at the annual scale. The research question is focused on investigating the link between the Hurst behavior in the mean rainfall, which is already acknowledged in literature, and the Hurst behavior in extreme rainfall timeseries, which is also to be testified.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1709/1/documents/2017_egu_poster_LRD_extremes.pdf (1571 KB)
Additional material:
H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, K. Tzouka, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Dependence of long-term persistence properties of precipitation on spatial and regional characteristics, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-3711, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13252.83840/1, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
The long-term persistence (LTP), else known in hydrological science as the Hurst phenomenon, is a behaviour observed in geophysical processes in which wet years or dry years are clustered to respective long time periods. A common practice for evaluating the presence of the LTP is to model the geophysical time series with the Hurst-Kolmogorov process (HKp) and estimate its Hurst parameter H where high values of H indicate strong LTP. We estimate H of the mean annual precipitation using instrumental data from approximately 1 500 stations which cover a big area of the earth’s surface and span from 1916 to 2015. We regress the H estimates of all stations on their spatial and regional characteristics (i.e. their location, elevation and Köppen-Geiger climate class) using a random forest algorithm. Furthermore, we apply the Mann-Kendall test under the LTP assumption (MKt-LTP) to all time series to assess the significance of observed trends of the mean annual precipitation. To summarize the results, the LTP seems to depend mostly on the location of the stations, while the predictive value of the fitted regression model is good. Thus when investigating for LTP properties we recommend that the local characteristics should be considered. Additionally, the application of the MKt-LTP suggests that no significant monotonic trend can characterize the global precipitation. Dominant positive significant trends are observed mostly in main climate type D (snow), while in the other climate types the percentage of stations with positive significant trends was approximately equal to that of negative significant trends. Furthermore, 50% of all stations do not exhibit significant trends at all.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1695/1/documents/EGU2017-3711presentation_.pdf (1608 KB)
Additional material:
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of the effect of the hyperparameter optimization and the time lag selection in time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-3072-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20560.92165/1, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
The hyperparameter optimization and the time lag selection are considered to be of great importance in time series forecasting using machine learning (ML) algorithms. To investigate their effect on the ML forecasting performance we conduct several large-scale simulation experiments. Within each of the latter we compare 12 methods on 2 000 simulated time series from the family of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) models. The methods are defined by the set {ML algorithm, hyperparameter selection procedure, time lags}. We compare three ML algorithms, i.e. Neural Networks (NN), Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM), two procedures for hyperparameter selection i.e. predefined hyperparameters or defined after optimization and two regression matrices (using time lag 1 or 1, …, 21). After splitting each simulated time series into a fitting and a testing set, we fit the models to the former set and compare their performance on the latter one. We quantify the methods’ performance using several metrics proposed in the literature and benchmark methods. Furthermore, we conduct a sensitivity analysis on the length of the fitting set to examine how it affects the robustness of our results. The findings indicate that the hyperparameter optimization mostly has a small effect on the forecasting performance. This is particularly important, because the hyperparameter optimization is computationally intensive. On the other hand, the time lag selection seems to mostly significantly affect the methods performance when using the NN algorithm, while we observe a similar behaviour for the RF algorithm albeit to a smaller extent.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1693/1/documents/EGU2017-3072presentation.pdf (1731 KB)
Additional material:
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Multi-step ahead streamflow forecasting for the operation of hydropower reservoirs, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-3069, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27271.80801, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Multi-step ahead forecasting is of practical interest for the operation of hydropower reservoirs.We conduct several large scale simulation experiments using both streamflow data and simulated time series to provide generalized results concerning the variation over time of the error values in multi-step ahead forecasting. In more detail, we apply several popular forecasting methods to each time series as explained subsequently. Each time series is split into a fitting and a testing set. We fit the models to the former set and we test their forecasting performance in the latter set. Lastly, we compute the error and the absolute error at each time step of the forecast horizon for each test and carry out a statistical analysis on the formed data sets. Furthermore, we perform a sensitivity analysis on the length of the fitting set to examine how it affects the results.
Remarks:
See preprint in http://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201710.0129.v1
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1692/1/documents/EGU2017-3069presentation.pdf (3930 KB)
Additional material:
G. Papacharalampous, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparison between stochastic and machine learning methods for hydrological multi-step ahead forecasting: All forecasts are wrong!, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-3068-2, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17205.47848, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Machine learning (ML) is considered to be a promising approach to hydrological processes forecasting. We conduct a comparison between several stochastic and ML point estimation methods by performing large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. The purpose is to provide generalized results, while the respective comparisons in the literature are usually based on case studies. The stochastic methods used include simple methods, models from the frequently used families of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Exponential Smoothing models. The ML methods used are Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks (NN). The comparison refers to the multi-step ahead forecasting properties of the methods. A total of 20 methods are used, among which 9 are the ML methods. 12 simulation experiments are performed, while each of them uses 2 000 simulated time series of 310 observations. The time series are simulated using stochastic processes from the families of ARMA and ARFIMA models. Each time series is split into a fitting (first 300 observations) and a testing set (last 10 observations). The comparative assessment of the methods is based on 18 metrics, that quantify the methods’ performance according to several criteria related to the accurate forecasting of the testing set, the capturing of its variation and the correlation between the testing and forecasted values. The most important outcome of this study is that there is not a uniformly better or worse method. However, there are methods that are regularly better or worse than others with respect to specific metrics. It appears that, although a general ranking of the methods is not possible, their classification based on their similar or contrasting performance in the various metrics is possible to some extent. Another important conclusion is that more sophisticated methods do not necessarily provide better forecasts compared to simpler methods. It is pointed out that the ML methods do not differ dramatically from the stochastic methods, while it is interesting that the NN, RF and SVM algorithms used in this study offer potentially very good performance in terms of accuracy. It should be noted that, although this study focuses on hydrological processes, the results are of general scientific interest. Another important point in this study is the use of several methods and metrics. Using fewer methods and fewer metrics would have led to a very different overall picture, particularly if those fewer metrics corresponded to fewer criteria. For this reason, we consider that the proposed methodology is appropriate for the evaluation of forecasting methods.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1691/1/documents/EGU2017-3068presentation.pdf (1804 KB)
Additional material:
V. Daniil, G. Pouliasis, E. Zacharopoulou, E. Demetriou, G. Manou, M. Chalakatevaki, I. Parara, C. Georganta, P. Stamou, S. Karali, E. Hadjimitsis, G. Koudouris, E. Moschos, D. Roussis, K. Papoulakos, A. Koskinas, G. Pollakis, N. Gournari, K. Sakellari, Y. Moustakis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, G. Karakatsanis, K. Tzouka, I. Deligiannis, V. Tsoukala, P. Papanicolaou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The uncertainty of atmospheric processes in planning a hybrid renewable energy system for a non-connected island, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-16781-4, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29610.62406, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Non-connected islands to the electric gird are often depending on oil-fueled power plants with high unit cost. A hybrid energy system with renewable resources such as wind and solar plants could reduce this cost and also offer more environmental friendly solutions. However, atmospheric processes are characterized by high uncertainty that does not permit harvesting and utilizing full of their potential. Therefore, a more sophisticated framework that somehow incorporates this uncertainty could improve the performance of the system. In this context, we describe several stochastic and financial aspects of this framework. Particularly, we investigate the cross-correlation between several atmospheric processes and the energy demand, the possibility of mixing renewable resources with the conventional ones and in what degree of reliability, and critical financial subsystems such as weather derivatives. A pilot application of the above framework is also presented for a remote island in the Aegean Sea.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1689/1/documents/EGU2017oral_16781_final.pdf (3038 KB)
Additional material:
P. Stamou, S. Karali, M. Chalakatevaki, V. Daniil, K. Tzouka, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, P. Papanicolaou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Creating the electric energy mix of a non-connected Aegean island, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-10130-10, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36537.77927, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
As the electric energy in the non-connected islands is mainly produced by oil-fueled power plants, the unit cost is extremely high. Here the various energy sources are examined in order to create the appropriate electric energy mix for a non-connected Aegean island. All energy sources (renewable and fossil fuels) are examined and each one is evaluated using technical, environmental and economic criteria. Finally the most appropriate energy sources are simulated considering the corresponding energy works. Special emphasis is given to the use of biomass and the possibility of replacing (even partially) the existing oil-fueled power plant. Finally, a synthesis of various energy sources is presented that satisfies the electric energy demand taking into account the base and peak electric loads of the island.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1688/2/documents/posterEGU.pdf (2687 KB)
Additional material:
E. Hadjimitsis, E. Demetriou, K. Sakellari, H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of the stochastic nature of temperature and humidity for energy management, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-10164-5, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Atmospheric temperature and dew point, in addition to their role in atmospheric processes, influence the management of energy systems since they highly affect the energy demand and production. Both temperature and humidity depend on the climate conditions and geographical location. In this context, we analyze numerous of observations around the globe and we investigate the long-term behaviour and periodicities of the temperature and humidity processes. Also, we present and apply a parsimonious stochastic double-cyclostationary model for these processes to an island in the Aegean Sea and investigate their link to energy management.
Additional material:
G. Koudouris, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of the stochastic nature of solar radiation for renewable resources management, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-10189-4, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16215.06564, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
A detailed investigation of the variability of solar radiation can be proven useful towards more efficient and sustainable design of renewable resources systems. This variability is mainly caused from the regular seasonal and diurnal variation, as well as its stochastic nature of the atmospheric processes, i.e. sunshine duration. In this context, we analyze numerous observations in Greece (Hellenic National Meteorological Service; http://www.hnms.gr/) and around the globe (NASA SSE - Surface meteorology and Solar Energy; http://www.soda-pro.com/webservices/radiation/nasa-sse) and we investigate the long-term behaviour and double periodicity of the solar radiation process. Also, we apply a parsimonious double-cyclostationary stochastic model to a theoretical scenario of solar energy production for an island in the Aegean Sea.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1686/1/documents/SGU2017_solar_pres.pdf (1812 KB)
Additional material:
E. Moschos, G. Manou, C. Georganta, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, H. Tyralis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and V. Tsoukala, Investigation of the stochastic nature of wave processes for renewable resources management: a pilot application in a remote island in the Aegean sea, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, EGU2017-10225-3, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30226.66245, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
The large energy potential of ocean dynamics is not yet being efficiently harvested mostly due to several technological and financial drawbacks. Nevertheless, modern renewable energy systems include wave and tidal energy in cases of nearshore locations. Although the variability of tidal waves can be adequately predictable, wind-generated waves entail a much larger uncertainty due to their dependence to the wind process. Recent research has shown, through estimation of the wave energy potential in coastal areas of the Aegean Sea, that installation of wave energy converters in nearshore locations could be an applicable scenario, assisting the electrical network of Greek islands. In this context, we analyze numerous of observations and we investigate the long-term behaviour of wave height and wave period processes. Additionally, we examine the case of a remote island in the Aegean sea, by estimating the local wave climate through past analysis data and numerical methods, and subsequently applying a parsimonious stochastic model to a theoretical scenario of wave energy production.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1685/1/documents/EGU2017-10225-3_poster.pdf (3588 KB)
Additional material:
A. Koskinas, E. Zacharopoulou, G. Pouliasis, I. Engonopoulos, K. Mavroyeoryos, I. Deligiannis, G. Karakatsanis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and H. Tyralis, Simulation of electricity demand in a remote island for optimal planning of a hybrid renewable energy system, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-10495-4, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10529.81767, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
We simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we first obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand. Secondly, the available hourly demand data are analysed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electrical energy demand and the mean daily temperature as well as other climatic variables for the same time period are computed. Also, we investigate the cross-correlation between those climatic variables and other variables related to renewable energy resources from numerous observations around the globe in order to assess the impact of each one to a hybrid renewable energy system. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed with the purpose to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated considering all the periodicities found in the analysis. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1684/2/documents/EGU2017_CrossCorr-EnergyDemand.pdf (2668 KB)
Additional material:
D. Roussis, I. Parara, N. Gournari, Y. Moustakis, P. Dimitriadis, T. Iliopoulou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Karakatsanis, Energy, variability and weather finance engineering, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-16919, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Most types of renewable energies are characterized by intense intermittency, causing significant instabilities to the grid; further requiring additional infrastructure (e.g. pumped-storage) for buffering hydrometeorological uncertainties, as well as complex operational rules for load balancing. In addition, most intermittent renewable units are subsidized, creating significant market inefficiencies.Weather derivatives comprise mature financial tools for integrating successfully the intermittent-load and base-load components into a unified hybrid energy system and establish their operation within a generalized uncertainty management market. With a growing global market share and 46% utilization of this financial tool by the energy industry and 12% by agriculture (that partially concerns biofuel resources), weather derivatives are projected to constitute a critical subsystem of many grids for buffering frequent hydrometeorological risks of low and medium impacts –which are not covered by standard insurance contracts that aim exclusively at extreme events and high financial damages. In this context, we study the attributes of hydrometeorological time series in a remote and small island in Greece, powered by an autonomous hybrid energy system. Upon the results we choose the optimal underlying index and we further compose and engineer a weather derivative with features of a typical option contract –which we consider most flexible and appropriate for the case– to test our assumptions on its beneficiary effects for both the budget of private energy producers and the island’s public administration.
Additional material:
K. Papoulakos, G. Pollakis, Y. Moustakis, A. Markopoulos, T. Iliopoulou, P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, Vienna, 19, EGU2017-10334-4, European Geosciences Union, 2017.
Small islands are regarded as promising areas for developing hybrid water-energy systems that combine multiple sources of renewable energy with pumped-storage facilities. Essential element of such systems is the water storage component (reservoir), which implements both flow and energy regulations. Apparently, the representation of the overall water-energy management problem requires the simulation of the operation of the reservoir system, which in turn requires a faithful estimation of water inflows and demands of water and energy. Yet, in small-scale reservoir systems, this task in far from straightforward, since both the availability and accuracy of associated information is generally very poor. For, in contrast to large-scale reservoir systems, for which it is quite easy to find systematic and reliable hydrological data, in the case of small systems such data may be minor or even totally missing. The stochastic approach is the unique means to account for input data uncertainties within the combined water-energy management problem. Using as example the Livadi reservoir, which is the pumped storage component of the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, Greece, we provide a simulation framework, comprising: (a) a stochastic model for generating synthetic rainfall and temperature time series; (b) a stochastic rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters cannot be inferred through calibration and, thus, they are represented as correlated random variables; (c) a stochastic model for estimating water supply and irrigation demands, based on simulated temperature and soil moisture, and (d) a daily operation model of the reservoir system, providing stochastic forecasts of water and energy outflows.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1682/2/documents/2017_EGU_RRproject_final.pdf (2019 KB)
Additional material:
P. Dimitriadis, Y. Markonis, T. Iliopoulou, E. Feloni, N. Gournari, I. Deligiannis, P. Kastis, C. Nasika, E. Lerias, Y. Moustakis, A. Petsiou, A. Sotiriadou, A. Markopoulos, V. Tyrogiannis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic similarities between hydroclimatic processes for variability characterization, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
The most important hydroclimatic processes such as temperature, dew point, wind, precipitation and river discharges are investigated for their stochastic behaviour on annual scale through several historical records. We investigate the stochastic similarities between them in terms of long-term persistence and we comment on their statistical variability giving emphasis on the last period. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1954/1/documents/StochSimilHydroClim2016.pdf (2569 KB)
I. Deligiannis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hourly temporal distribution of wind, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, 18, EGU2016-13138-4, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25967.53928, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
The wind process is essential for hydrometeorology and additionally, is one of the basic renewable energy resources. Most stochastic forecast models are limited up to daily scales disregarding the hourly scale which is significant for renewable energy management. Here, we analyze hourly wind timeseries giving emphasis on the temporal distribution of wind within the day. We finally present a periodic model based on statistical as well as hydrometeorological reasoning that shows good agreement with data.
Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1769/1/documents/2016EGU_DELIGIANNIS_Wind.pdf (2997 KB)
Additional material:
E. Lerias, A. Kalamioti, P. Dimitriadis, Y. Markonis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of temperature process for climatic variability identification, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016-14828-3, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
The temperature process is considered as the most characteristic hydrometeorological process and has been thoroughly examined in the climate-change framework. We use a dataset comprising hourly temperature and dew point records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e. mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods.
Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1660/1/documents/TempDewP.pdf (2727 KB)
Additional material:
I. Deligiannis, V. Tyrogiannis, Ο. Daskalou, P. Dimitriadis, Y. Markonis, T. Iliopoulou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of wind process for climatic variability identification, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016-14946-6, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26681.36969, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
The wind process is considered one of the hydrometeorological processes that generates and drives the climate dynamics. We use a dataset comprising hourly wind records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e. mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods.
Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
Full text:
Additional material:
A. Sotiriadou, A. Petsiou, E. Feloni, P. Kastis, T. Iliopoulou, Y. Markonis, H. Tyralis, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic investigation of precipitation process for climatic variability identification, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016-15137-5, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28955.46881, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
The precipitation process is important not only to hydrometeorology but also to renewable energy resources management. We use a dataset consisting of daily and hourly records around the globe to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e. mean process variance vs. scale).
Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1658/1/documents/RainP.pdf (3820 KB)
Additional material:
P. Dimitriadis, N. Gournari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Markov vs. Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour identification in hydroclimatic processes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016-14577-4, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.21019.05927, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
Hydroclimatic processes are usually modelled either by exponential decay of the autocovariance function, i.e. Markovian behaviour, or power type decay, i.e. long-term persistence (or else Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour). For the identification and quantification of such behaviours several graphical stochastic tools can be used such as the climacogram (i.e. plot of the variance of the averaged process vs. scale), autocovariance, variogram, power spectrum etc. with the former usually exhibiting smaller statistical uncertainty as compared to the others. However, most methodologies including these tools are based on the expected value of the process. In this analysis, we explore a methodology that combines both the practical use of a graphical representation of the internal structure of the process as well as the statistical robustness of the maximum-likelihood estimation. For validation and illustration purposes, we apply this methodology to fundamental stochastic processes, such as Markov and Hurst-Kolmogorov type ones.
Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1657/1/documents/MvHP.pdf (777 KB)
Additional material:
Y. Markonis, C. Nasika, Y. Moustakis, A. Markopoulos, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Global investigation of Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour in river runoff, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016-17491, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16331.59684, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
Long-term persistence or Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour is a well-studied property of river discharge. Here, we use a large dataset (GRDC international archive), which counts over 2100 records above 60 years, 450 of which are also above 100 years, to examine the dependence structure of the monthly mean, and annual maxima and minima. We estimate the Hurst coefficient H, using Maximum Likelihood and Climacogram-based estimation methods for record lengths between 60 and 208 years, and investigate the sample size effect on the estimation (in subsets of 60-80, 80-100, 100-120 and above 120 years). We further extend our investigation by exploring the roles of catchment size, runoff mean values, altitude of gauge, location (zonal: tropical, mid-latitude, high-latitude), climatic type (Koppen classification) to H estimates. Finally, we investigate whether or not there are any links ˝ between H and the statistical properties of regional precipitation and temperature (including mean, coefficient of variation, auto-correlation and H coefficient of the latter processes).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1652/1/documents/EGU2016HK_Rivers.pdf (1636 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, F. Lombardo, P. Dimitriadis, Y. Markonis, and S. Stevens, From fractals to stochastics: seeking theoretical consistency in analysis of geophysical data, 30 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences, Rhodes, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34215.55209, 2016.
Fractal-based techniques have opened new avenues in the analysis of geophysical data. On the other hand, there is often a lack of appreciation of both the statistical uncertainty in the results, and the theoretical properties of the stochastic concepts associated with these techniques. Several examples are presented which illustrate suspect results of fractal techniques. It is proposed that concepts used in fractal analyses are stochastic concepts and the fractal techniques can readily be incorporated into the theory of stochastic processes. This would be beneficial in studying biases and uncertainties of results in a theoretically consistent framework, and in avoiding unfounded conclusions. In this respect, a general methodology for theoretically justified stochastic processes, which evolve in continuous time and stem from maximum entropy production considerations, is proposed. Some important modelling issues are discussed with focus on model identification and fitting, which are often made using inappropriate methods. The theoretical framework is applied to several processes, including turbulent velocities measured every several microseconds and hydroclimatic processes, whose proxy reconstructions can provide information for time scales up to millions of years.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1627/1/documents/2016RhodesStochastics__.pdf (3402 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Dimitriadis, From time series to stochastics: A theoretical framework with applications on time scales spanning from microseconds to megayears, Orlob Second International Symposium on Theoretical Hydrology, Davis, California, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14082.89284, University California Davis, 2016.
“Time series” has been an ambiguous term, sometimes referring to a series of measurements and other times used as synonymous to a stochastic process in discrete time. This ambiguity has been harmful to several scientific disciplines, theoretical and applied including hydrology, as it has hampered the understanding of the difference between a number and the abstract object called a random variable. Furthermore, what has been known as “time series models”, such as ARMA models have been equally misleading, as they are often non-parsimonious or overfitted, unnatural or artificial, theoretically unjustified and, eventually, unnecessary.
We present a general methodology for more theoretically justified stochastic processes, which evolve in continuous time and stem from maximum entropy production considerations, thereby enabling parsimonious modelling. The discrete-time properties of the processes are theoretically derived from the continuous-time ones and a general simulation methodology in discrete time is built, which explicitly handles the effects of discretization and truncation. Some additional modelling issues are discussed with focus on model identification and fitting, which are often made using inappropriate methods.
We apply the theoretical framework for several processes, including turbulent velocities measured every several microseconds and hydroclimatic processes, whose proxy reconstructions can provide information for time scales up to millions of years.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1618/1/documents/2016OrlobDavisStochastics3.pdf (3441 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The unavoidable uncertainty of renewable energy and its management, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016–18430, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36312.70400, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
Conventional energy systems gave the luxury of a fully controllable and deterministically manageable energy production. Renewable energies are uncertain and often unavailable at the time of demand. Wind and solar energies are highly variable, dependent on atmospheric and climatic conditions and unpredictable. The related uncertainty is much higher than commonly thought, as both the wind and sunshine duration processes exhibit Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour. Lack o f proper modelling of this behaviour results in overestimation of wind and solar energy potentials, and frequent “surprises” of persisting low (or high) production. Proper modelling of the uncertainty is a necessary step for renewable energy management. This latter requires both structural measures—in particular integration with pumped storage hydropower systems—and optimization methodologies for the operation of largescale hybrid renewable energy systems. These key ideas are illustrated with a case study for a big district of Greece.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1611/1/documents/egu2016-renewable_.pdf (4504 KB)
Additional material:
Ο. Daskalou, M. Karanastasi, Y. Markonis, P. Dimitriadis, A. Koukouvinos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, GIS-based approach for optimal siting and sizing of renewables considering techno-environmental constraints and the stochastic nature of meteorological inputs, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 18, Vienna, EGU2016-12044-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19535.48803, European Geosciences Union, 2016.
Following the legislative EU targets and taking advantage of its high renewable energy potential, Greece can obtain significant benefits from developing its water, solar and wind energy resources. In this context we present a GIS-based methodology for the optimal sizing and siting of solar and wind energy systems at the regional scale, which is tested in the Prefecture of Thessaly. First, we assess the wind and solar potential, taking into account the stochastic nature of the associated meteorological processes (i.e. wind speed and solar radiation, respectively), which is essential component for both planning (i.e. type selection and sizing of photovoltaic panels and wind turbines) and management purposes (i.e. real-time operation of the system). For the optimal siting, we assess the efficiency and economic performance of the energy system, also accounting for a number of constraints, associated with topographic limitations (e.g., terrain slope, proximity to road and electricity grid network, etc.), the environmental legislation and other land use constraints. Based on this analysis, we investigate favorable alternatives using technical, environmental as well as financial criteria. The final outcome is GIS maps that depict the available energy potential and the optimal layout for photovoltaic panels and wind turbines over the study area. We also consider a hypothetical scenario of future development of the study area, in which we assume the combined operation of the above renewables with major hydroelectric dams and pumped-storage facilities, thus providing a unique hybrid renewable system, extended at the regional scale.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1609/2/documents/2016EGU_RenewablesOptLocation.pdf (1719 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.19535.48803
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Wu, Y., T. Zhang, C. Xu, B. Zhang, L. Li, Y. Ke, Y. Yan, and R. Xu, Optimal location selection for offshore wind-PV-seawater pumped storage power plant using a hybrid MCDM approach: A two-stage framework, Energy Conversion and Management, 199, doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2019.112066, 2019. |
C. Pappas, M.D. Mahecha, D.C. Frank, and D. Koutsoyiannis, New insights on the variability of ecosystem functioning across time scales, AGU 2015 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24568.65280, American Geophysical Union, 2015.
Ecosystem functioning is monitored worldwide over several decades. However, a comparative in-depth characterization of the temporal variability of essential ecosystem processes, such as for example carbon assimilation and respiration is still lacking. The intra-annual (sub-diurnal, diurnal, and seasonal) variability of these processes can be well described by basic mechanisms such as the plant response to light. In contrast, the inter-annual variability and its origins and magnitude, remain highly uncertain. To date, there have only been a few attempts to investigate these issues across sites, ecosystems variables, and time scales, yet a general and comprehensive overview is outstanding. Here, we present a synthesis of a wide range of observations over Europe, namely: (i) eddy covariance measurements of carbon, energy, and water fluxes, (ii) satellite data of leaf area index and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plants, (iii) tree-ring widths, and (iv) dendrometer measurements of tree stem radius changes, and we analyze their variability from the half-hourly to the decadal time scale. Our analysis shows that all ecosystems can be characterized by three distinct regimes of variability (sub-daily, daily-seasonal, and seasonal-annual) confined within the ranges of the available resources, i.e., water (precipitation) and energy (radiation and temperature). We find a convergence of the range of variability of hydrometeorological drivers. Surprisingly, such convergence is not reflected in the variability of the ecosystem responses across sites. Although the magnitude of variability of ecosystem functioning varies across sites, the temporal dependences present the same characteristics over time scales spanning five orders of magnitude. We show that this behaviour can be well simulated by combining simple stochastic models with deterministic harmonics (diurnal and annual cycles). This allows us to statistically characterize the short- and long-term variability of ecosystem functioning and to disentangle the relative contribution of major climatic drivers across time scales, offering a parsimonious representation of ecosystem dynamics.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1592/1/documents/Pappas_et_al_agu2015.pdf (2091 KB)
E. Volpi, A. Fiori, S. Grimaldi, F. Lombardo, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Return period for time-dependent processes, STAHY’15 Workshop, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22052.07044, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2015.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1588/1/documents/STAHY2015-VolpiEtAl2.pdf (338 KB)
N. Malamos, A. Tegos, I. L. Tsirogiannis, A. Christofides, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Implementation of a regional parametric model for potential evapotranspiration assessment, IrriMed 2015 – Modern technologies, strategies and tools for sustainable irrigation management and governance in Mediterranean agriculture, Bari, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3992.0725, 2015.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is key input in water resources, agricultural and environmental modelling. For many decades, several approaches have been proposed for the consistent estimation of PET at several time scales of interest. The most recognized is the Penman‐Monteith formula, which is yet difficult to apply, since it requires simultaneous measurements of four meteorological variables (temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, wind velocity). For this reason, simplified approaches prove very useful in absence of a complete data set and are strongly preferred. In the present study, we implement a recent parametric formula to model PET in the Arta plain, located in the Region of Epirus ‐ Greece, which is based on a simplified formulation of the original Penman‐Monteith expression and requires only mean hourly, daily or monthly temperature data, depending on the desired time step. The methodology is generic, yet parsimonious in terms of the input data, with its parameters adjusted through calibration, to the available PET data. A spatial analysis concerning the regionalization of the parameters and PET estimates of the proposed methodology by implementing interpolation techniques is performed. The results are very satisfactory, illustrating that the proposed framework is efficient and constitutes a reliable alternative in the assessment of potential evapotranspiration field
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1576/1/documents/2015Bari_Implementation_of_a_regional_parametric.pdf (2372 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, The water supply of Athens through the centuries, 16th conference Cura Aquarum, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24516.22400/1, German Water History Association, German Archaeological Institute in Athens, 2015.
Over its long history, Athens has never had sufficient water resources and the water supply of the city has been an endless and ambitious challenge. Several hydraulic works of various scales and types (from simple wells and cisterns to large aqueducts) have been constructed during this long period. These works helped Athenians to cope with water scarcity. The evolution, through the centuries, of water supply works and water management practices in the city of Athens, is revisited, focusing on the sustainability of ancient works (aqueducts that were in use until the 20th century), and the relationship of the water technology with socio-economical characteristics during history. The management of the contemporary water supply system, one of the most extensive and complex water supply systems in the world, is also studied.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1543/1/documents/2014CuraAquarum3.pdf (5033 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, L. Lappas, Ο. Daskalou, A. M. Filippidou, M. Giannakou, Ε. Gkova, R. Ioannidis, Α. Polydera, Ε. Polymerou, Ε. Psarrou, A. Vyrini, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Application of stochastic methods for wind speed forecasting and wind turbines design at the area of Thessaly, Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-13810, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25355.08486, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
Several methods exist for estimating the statistical properties of wind speed, most of them being deterministic or probabilistic, disregarding though its long-term behaviour. Here, we focus on the stochastic nature of wind. After analyzing several historical timeseries at the area of interest (AoI) in Thessaly (Greece), we show that a Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behaviour is apparent. Thus, disregarding the latter could lead to unrealistic predictions and wind load situations, causing some impact on the energy production and management. Moreover, we construct a stochastic model capable of preserving the HK behaviour and we produce synthetic timeseries using a Monte-Carlo approach to estimate the future wind loads in the AoI. Finally, we identify the appropriate types of wind turbines for the AoI (based on the IEC 61400 standards) and propose several industrial solutions.
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Additional material:
Y. Markonis, T. Dimoulas, A. Atalioti, C. Konstantinou, A. Kontini, Μ.-Ι. Pipini, E. Skarlatou, V. Sarantopoulos, K. Tzouka, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparison between satellite and instrumental solar irradiance data at the city of Athens, Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-5719, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12274.09920, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
In this study, we examine and compare the statistical properties of satellite and instrumental solar irradiance data at the capital of Greece, Athens. Our aim is to determine whether satellite data are sufficient for the requirements of solar energy modelling applications. To this end we estimate the corresponding probability density functions, the auto-correlation functions and the parameters of some fitted simple stochastic models. We also investigate the effect of sample size to the variance in the temporal interpolation of daily time series. Finally, as an alternative, we examine if temperature can be used as a better predictor for the daily irradiance non-seasonal component instead of the satellite data.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Parsimonious entropy-based stochastic modelling for changing hydroclimatic processes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-4461, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13951.82089, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
Change, which is omnipresent in hydroclimatic processes, can be represented by stationary stochastic models with long-term persistence. The latter property can theoretically be derived by maximizing entropy production. Maximum entropy considerations also enable parsimonious modelling of natural processes. Based on such considerations, a general methodology for theoretically justified stochastic processes, which evolve in continuous time, is presented. The discrete-time properties thereof are theoretically derived from the continuous-time ones and a general simulation methodology in discrete time is built, which explicitly handles the effects of discretization and truncation. Some additional modelling issues are discussed with focus on model identification and fitting, which are often made using inappropriate methods.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1533/2/documents/2015EGU_Stochastics.pdf (1040 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Climate is changing, everything is flowing, stationarity is immortal, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-4411-2, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10596.37762, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
There is no doubt that climate is changing—and ever has been. The environment is also changing and in the last decades, as a result of demographic change and technological advancement, environmental change has been accelerating. These affect also the hydrological processes, whose changes in connection with rapidly changing human systems have been the focus of the new scientific decade 2013–2022 of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, entitled “Panta Rhei – Everything Flows”. In view of the changing systems, it has recently suggested that, when dealing with water management and hydrological extremes, stationarity is no longer a proper assumption. Hence, it was proposed that hydrological processes should be treated as nonstationary. Two main reasons contributed to this perception. First, the climate models project a future hydroclimate that will be different from the current one. Second, as streamflow record become longer, they indicate the presence of upward or downward trends. However, till now hydroclimatic projections made in the recent past have not been verified. At the same time, evidence from quite longer records, instrumental or proxy, suggest that local trends are omnipresent but not monotonic; rather at some time upward trends turn to downward ones and vice versa. These observations suggest that improvident dismiss of stationarity and adoption of nonstationary descriptions based either on climate model outputs or observed trends may entail risks. The risks stem from the facts that the future can be different from what was deterministically projected, that deterministic projections are associated with an illusion of decreased uncertainty, as well as that nonstationary models fitted on observed data may have lower predictive capacity than simpler stationary ones. In most of the cases, what is actually needed is to revisit the concept of stationarity and try to apply it carefully, making it consistent with the presence of local trends, possibly incorporating information from deterministic predictions, whenever these prove to be reliable, and estimating the total predictive uncertainty.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1531/2/documents/2015EGU_Stationarity.pdf (787 KB)
Additional material:
E. Rozos, A. D. Koussis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Efficient discretization in finite difference method, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-9608, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3140.1044, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
Finite difference method (FDM) is a plausible and simple method for solving partial differential equations. The standard practice is to use an orthogonal discretization to form algebraic approximate formulations of the derivatives of the unknown function and a grid, much like raster maps, to represent the properties of the function domain. For example, for the solution of the groundwater flow equation, a raster map is required for the characterization of the discretization cells (flow cell, no-flow cell, boundary cell, etc.), and two raster maps are required for the hydraulic conductivity and the storage coefficient. Unfortunately, this simple approach to describe the topology comes along with the known disadvantages of the FDM (rough representation of the geometry of the boundaries, wasted computational resources in the unavoidable expansion of the grid refinement in all cells of the same column and row, etc.). To overcome these disadvantages, Hunt has suggested an alternative approach to describe the topology, the use of an array of neighbours. This limits the need for discretization nodes only for the representation of the boundary conditions and the flow domain. Furthermore, the geometry of the boundaries is described more accurately using a vector representation. Most importantly, graded meshes can be employed, which are capable of restricting grid refinement only in the areas of interest (e.g. regions where hydraulic head varies rapidly, locations of pumping wells, etc.). In this study, we test the Hunt approach against MODFLOW, a well-established finite difference model, and the Finite Volume Method with Simplified Integration (FVMSI). The results of this comparison are examined and critically discussed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1527/2/documents/Poster_Hunt_8iyZUe2.pdf (534 KB)
Additional material:
P. Kossieris, A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessing the performance of Bartlett-Lewis model on the simulation of Athens rainfall, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-8983, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14371.25120, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
Many hydrological applications require the use of long rainfall data across a wide range of fine time scales. To meet this necessity, stochastic approaches are usually employed for the generation of large number of rainfall events, following a Monte Carlo approach. In this framework, Bartlett-Lewis model (BL) is a key representative from the family of Poisson-cluster stochastic processes. Here, we examine the performance of three different versions of BL model, with number of parameters varying from 5 up to 7, in representing the characteristics of convective and frontal rainfall of Athens (Greece). Apart from the typical statistical characteristics that are explicitly preserved by the stochastic model (mean, variance, lag-1 autocorrelation, probability dry), we also attempt to preserve the statistical distribution of annual rainfall maxima, as well as two important temporal properties of the observed storm events, i.e. the duration of storms and the time distance between subsequent events. This task is not straightforward, given that these characteristics are not described in the theoretical equations of the model, but they should be empirically evaluated on the basis of synthetic data. The analysis is conducted on monthly basis and for multiple time scales, i.e. from hourly to daily. Further to that, we focus on the formulation of the calibration problem, by assessing the performance of the BL model against issues such as choice of statistics to preserve, time scales, distance metrics, etc.
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14371.25120
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Li, X., A. Meshgi, X. Wang, J. Zhang, S. H. X. Tay, G. Pijcke, N. Manocha, M. Ong, M. T. Nguyen, and V. Babovic, Three resampling approaches based on method of fragments for daily-to-subdaily precipitation disaggregation, International Journal of Climatology, 38(Suppl.1), e1119-e1138, doi:10.1002/joc.5438, 2018. |
| 2. | Park, J., C. Onof, and D. Kim, A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 989-1014, doi:10.5194/hess-23-989-2019, 2019. |
| 3. | Kim, D., and C. Onof, A stochastic rainfall model that can reproduce important rainfall properties across the timescales from several minutes to a decade, Journal of Hydrology, 589(2), 125150, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125150, 2020. |
A. Koukouvinos, D. Nikolopoulos, A. Efstratiadis, A. Tegos, E. Rozos, S.M. Papalexiou, P. Dimitriadis, Y. Markonis, P. Kossieris, H. Tyralis, G. Karakatsanis, K. Tzouka, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, A. Siskos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Integrated water and renewable energy management: the Acheloos-Peneios region case study, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-4912, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17726.69440, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
Within the ongoing research project “Combined Renewable Systems for Sustainable Energy Development” (CRESSENDO), we have developed a novel stochastic simulation framework for optimal planning and management of large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems, in which hydropower plays the dominant role. The methodology and associated computer tools are tested in two major adjacent river basins in Greece (Acheloos, Peneios) extending over 15 500 km2 (12% of Greek territory). River Acheloos is characterized by very high runoff and holds ~40% of the installed hydropower capacity of Greece. On the other hand, the Thessaly plain drained by Peneios – a key agricultural region for the national economy – usually suffers from water scarcity and systematic environmental degradation. The two basins are interconnected through diversion projects, existing and planned, thus formulating a unique large-scale hydrosystem whose future has been the subject of a great controversy. The study area is viewed as a hypothetically closed, energy-autonomous, system, in order to evaluate the perspectives for sustainable development of its water and energy resources. In this context we seek an efficient configuration of the necessary hydraulic and renewable energy projects through integrated modelling of the water and energy balance. We investigate several scenarios of energy demand for domestic, industrial and agricultural use, assuming that part of the demand is fulfilled via wind and solar energy, while the excess or deficit of energy is regulated through large hydroelectric works that are equipped with pumping storage facilities. The overall goal is to examine under which conditions a fully renewable energy system can be technically and economically viable for such large spatial scale.
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Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.17726.69440
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stamou, A. T., and P. Rutschmann, Pareto optimization of water resources using the nexus approach, Water Resources Management, 32, 5053-5065, doi:10.1007/s11269-018-2127-x, 2018. |
| 2. | Stamou, A.-T., and P. Rutschmann, Optimization of water use based on the water-energy-food nexus concept: Application to the long-term development scenario of the Upper Blue Nile River, Water Utility Journal, 25, 1-13, 2020. |
A. Efstratiadis, I. Tsoukalas, P. Kossieris, G. Karavokiros, A. Christofides, A. Siskos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Computational issues in complex water-energy optimization problems: Time scales, parameterizations, objectives and algorithms, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-5121, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11015.80802, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
Modelling of large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) is a challenging task, for which several open computational issues exist. HRES comprise typical components of hydrosystems (reservoirs, boreholes, conveyance networks, hydropower stations, pumps, water demand nodes, etc.), which are dynamically linked with renewables (e.g., wind turbines, solar parks) and energy demand nodes. In such systems, apart from the well-known shortcomings of water resources modelling (nonlinear dynamics, unknown future inflows, large number of variables and constraints, conflicting criteria, etc.), additional complexities and uncertainties arise due to the introduction of energy components and associated fluxes. A major difficulty is the need for coupling two different temporal scales, given that in hydrosystem modeling, monthly simulation steps are typically adopted, yet for a faithful representation of the energy balance (i.e. energy production vs. demand) a much finer resolution (e.g. hourly) is required. Another drawback is the increase of control variables, constraints and objectives, due to the simultaneous modelling of the two parallel fluxes (i.e. water and energy) and their interactions. Finally, since the driving hydrometeorological processes of the integrated system are inherently uncertain, it is often essential to use synthetically generated input time series of large length, in order to assess the system performance in terms of reliability and risk, with satisfactory accuracy. To address these issues, we propose an effective and efficient modeling framework, key objectives of which are: (a) the substantial reduction of control variables, through parsimonious yet consistent parameterizations; (b) the substantial decrease of computational burden of simulation, by linearizing the combined water and energy allocation problem of each individual time step, and solve each local sub-problem through very fast linear network programming algorithms, and (c) the substantial decrease of the required number of function evaluations for detecting the optimal management policy, using an innovative, surrogate-assisted global optimization approach.
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A. Zarkadoulas, K. Mantesi, A. Efstratiadis, A. D. Koussis, K. Mazi, D. Katsanos, A. Koukouvinos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A hydrometeorological forecasting approach for basins with complex flow regime, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, Vienna, EGU2015-3904, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.21920.99842, European Geosciences Union, 2015.
The combined use of weather forecasting models and hydrological models in flood risk estimations is an established technique, with several successful applications worldwide. However, most known hydrometeorological forecasting systems have been established in large rivers with perpetual flow. Experience from small- and medium-scale basins, which are often affected by flash floods, is very limited. In this work we investigate the perspectives of hydrometeorological forecasting, by emphasizing two issues: (a) which modelling approach can credibly represent the complex dynamics of basins with highly variable runoff (intermittent or ephemeral); and (b) which transformation of point-precipitation forecasts provides the most reliable estimations of spatially aggregated data, to be used as inputs to semi-distributed hydrological models. Using as case studies the Sarantapotamos river basin, in Eastern Greece (145 km2), and the Nedontas river basin, in SW Peloponnese (120 km2), we demonstrate the advantages of continuous simulation through the HYDROGEIOS model. This employs conjunctive modelling of surface and groundwater flows and their interactions (percolation, infiltration, underground losses), which are key processes in river basins characterized by significantly variability of runoff. The model was calibrated against hourly flow data at two and three hydrometric stations, respectively, for a 3-year period (2011-2014). Next we attempted to reproduce the most intense flood events of that period, by substituting observed rainfall by forecast scenarios. In this respect, we used consecutive point forecasts of a 6-hour lead time, provided by the numerical weather prediction model WRF (Advanced Research version), dynamically downscaled from the ~1o forecast of GSF–NCEP/NOAA successively first to ~18 km, then to ~6 km and ultimately at the horizontal grid resolution of 2x2 km2. We examined alternative spatial integration approaches, using as reference the rainfall stations over the two basins. By combining consecutive rainfall forecasts at the sub-basin scale (a kind of ensemble prediction), we run the model in forecast mode to generate trajectories of flow predictions and associated uncertainty bounds.
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P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Using multiple stochastic tools in identification of scaling in hydrometeorology, AGU 2014 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, American Geophysical Union, 2014.
The identification and quantification of stochastic scaling laws has been an important task in modelling of hydrometeorological processes. Stochastic tools such as the power spectrum, autocovariance function, structure and climacogram have been among the most powerful. However, the common practice of using solely one of them may lead to process misinterpretation. We introduce a methodology that compares these stochastic tools and seeks the optimal one for different scales in terms of minimizing fitting errors. For validation and illustration purposes, we apply this methodology to various fundamental stochastic processes, such as Markovian, Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) and Cauchy type ones. For each one, we produce Gaussian synthetic time series, we estimate the uncertainty of their expected values and finally, we conclude upon the ones with the smallest uncertainty. Furthermore, we apply this method to a real case time-series of high resolution turbulent flow velocities.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1952/1/documents/MultipleStochasticTools2014.pdf (1791 KB)
G. Karakatsanis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy, recycling and macroeconomics of water resources, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
We develop a macroeconomic model of water quantity and quality supply multipliers derived from water recycling (Karakatsanis et al. 2013) and examine its statistical properties. Macroeconomic models that incorporate natural resource conservation have become increasingly important (European Commission et al. 2012) for national accounting. In addition, as an estimated 80% of globally used freshwater is not reused (United Nations 2012), with increasing population trends, water resource recycling becomes a solution of high priority. Recycling of water resources generates two major conservation effects: (1) conservation of water in reservoirs and aquifers and (2) conservation of ecosystem carrying capacity due to wastewater flux reduction. It is the properties of the distribution of recycling efficiencies –on quantity and quality- per sector that determine macroeconomic decoupling from geophysical uncertainty. Generally, uncertainty may statistically be quantified by entropy. Higher entropy signifies a greater dispersion of recycling efficiencies and potentially greater exposure to geophysical uncertainty; probably indicating the need for additional infrastructure for the statistical distribution’s both shifting and concentration towards higher efficiencies, supply multipliers and geophysical uncertainty decoupling.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1852/1/documents/EGU_2014_Karakatsanis_et_al_2.pdf (1012 KB)
A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, N. Malamos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Evaluation of a parametric approach for estimating potential evapotranspiration across different climates, IRLA2014 – The Effects of Irrigation and Drainage on Rural and Urban Landscapes, Patras, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14004.24966, 2014.
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is key input in water resources, agricultural and environmental modelling. For many decades, numerous approaches have been proposed for the consistent estimation of PET at several time scales of interest. The most recognized is the Penman-Monteith formula, which is yet difficult to apply in data-scarce areas, since it requires simultaneous observations of four meteorological variables (temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, wind velocity). For this reason, parsimonious models with minimum input data requirements are strongly preferred. Typically, these have been developed and tested for specific hydroclimatic conditions, but when they are applied in different regimes they provide much less reliable (and in some cases misleading) estimates. Therefore, it is essential to develop generic methods that remain parsimonious, in terms of input data and parameterization, yet they also allow for some kind of local adjustment of their parameters, through calibration. In this study we present a recent parametric formula, based on a simplified formulation of the original Penman-Monteith expression, which only requires mean daily or monthly temperature data. The method is evaluated using meteorological records from different areas worldwide, at both the daily and monthly time scales. The outcomes of this extended analysis are very encouraging, as indicated by the substantially high validation scores of the proposed approach across all examined data sets. In general, the parametric model outperforms well-established methods of the everyday practice, since it ensures optimal approximation of PET.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1512/1/documents/2014_IRLA_Parametric.pdf (740 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Random musings on stochastics (Lorenz Lecture), AGU 2014 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2852.8804, American Geophysical Union, 2014.
In 1960 Lorenz identified the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics, thus highlighting the importance of the discovery of chaos by Poincare, 70 years earlier, in the motion of three bodies. Chaos in the macroscopic world offered a natural way to explain unpredictability, that is, randomness. Concurrently with Poincare’s discovery, Boltzmann introduced statistical physics, while soon after Borel and Lebesgue laid the foundation of measure theory, later (in 1930s) used by Kolmogorov as the formal foundation of probability theory. Subsequently, Kolmogorov and Khinchin introduced the concepts of stochastic processes and stationarity, and advanced the concept of ergodicity. All these areas are now collectively described by the term “stochastics”, which includes probability theory, stochastic processes and statistics.
As paradoxical as it may seem, stochastics offers the tools to deal with chaos, even if it results from deterministic dynamics. As chaos entails uncertainty, it is more informative and effective to replace the study of exact system trajectories with that of probability densities. Also, as the exact laws of complex systems can hardly be deduced by synthesis of the detailed interactions of system components, these laws should inevitably be inferred by induction, based on observational data and using statistics.
The arithmetic of stochastics is quite different from that of regular numbers. Accordingly, it needs the development of intuition and interpretations which differ from those built upon deterministic considerations. Using stochastic tools in a deterministic context may result in mistaken conclusions. In an attempt to contribute to a more correct interpretation and use of stochastic concepts in typical tasks of nonlinear systems, several examples are studied, which aim (a) to clarify the difference in the meaning of linearity in deterministic and stochastic context; (b) to contribute to a more attentive use of stochastic concepts (entropy, statistical moments, autocorrelation, power spectrum), in model identification and parameter estimation from data; and (c) to provide interpretations to scaling laws based on maximization of entropy or entropy production, or else natural amplification of uncertainty, which are alternative to more common ones, like self-organization.
Remarks:
The lecture was live streamed by AGU and is freely available on line at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i6l_5IXA1U
and also (for AGU members) at
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1500/1/documents/2014AGU_LorenzLecture3.pdf (4067 KB)
Additional material:
See also: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/preliminaryview.cgi/Session3849
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Risks from dismissing stationarity, AGU 2014 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36234.06084, American Geophysical Union, 2014.
In the last years it has emphatically suggested that, when dealing with water management and hydrological extremes, stationarity is no longer a proper assumption. Hence, it was proposed that hydrological processes should be treated as nonstationary. Two main reasons contributed to this perception. First, the climate models project a future hydroclimate that will be different from the current one. Second, as streamflow record become longer, they indicate the presence of upward or downward trends. However, till now hydroclimatic projections made in the recent past have not been verified. At the same time, evidence from quite longer records, instrumental or proxy, suggest that local trends are omnipresent but not monotonic; rather at some time upward trends turn to downward ones and vice versa. These observations suggest that improvident dismiss of stationarity and adoption of nonstationary descriptions based either on climate model outputs or observed trends may entail risks. The risks stem from the facts that the future can be different from what was deterministically projected, that deterministic projections are associated with an illusion of decreased uncertainty, as well as that nonstationary models fitted on observed data may have lower predictive capacity than simpler stationary ones. In most of the cases, what is actually needed is to revisit the concept of stationarity and try to apply it carefully, making it consistent with the presence of local trends, possibly incorporating information from deterministic predictions, whenever these prove to be reliable, and estimating the total predictive uncertainty. In a few cases nonstationarity is justified but the conditions justifying it should be carefully assessed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1499/1/documents/2014AGU_RisksFromDismissingStationarity_1Zlyxz8.pdf (1011 KB)
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temporal disaggregation of rainfall, IDRA 2014 – XXXIV Conference of Hydraulics and Hydraulic Engineering, Bari, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32878.61768, 2014.
Temporal disaggregation models of rainfall aim at generating finer scale time series of rainfall that are fully consistent with any given coarse-scale totals. In this work, we present a disaggregation method that initially retains the formalism, the parameter set, and the generation routine of the downscaling model described by Lombardo et al (2012), which generates time series with Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dependence structure. Then it uses an adjusting procedure to achieve the full consistency of lower-level and higher-level variables without affecting the stochastic structure implied by the original downscaling model. Furthermore, we investigate how our simple and parsimonious model may account for rainfall intermittency, because the capability of disaggregation models to reproduce rainfall intermittency is a fundamental requirement in simulation. Intermittency is quantified by the probability that a time interval is dry . Here we focus on a modelling approach of a mixed type, with a discrete description of intermittency and a continuous description of rainfall. In other words, we model the intermittent rainfall process as the product of the following two stochastic processes: (i) The rainfall occurrence process, which is described by a binary valued stochastic process, with the values 0 and 1 representing dry and wet conditions, respectively; (ii) The non-zero rainfall process, which is given by our disaggregation model. We study the rainfall process as intermittent with both independent (Bernoullian) and dependent (Markovian) occurrences, where dependence is quantified by the probability that two consecutive time intervals are dry . In either case, we provide the analytical formulations of the main statistics of our mixed-type disaggregation model and show their clear accordance with Monte Carlo simulations.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1493/1/documents/2014Idra14LombardoEtAl.pdf (503 KB)
I. Koukas, V. Koukoravas, K. Mantesi, K. Sakellari, T.-D. Xanthopoulou, A. Zarkadoulas, Y. Markonis, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistical properties and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics in climatic proxy data and temperature reconstructions, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-9290-2, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.21134.56644, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
The statistical properties of over 300 different proxy records of the last two thousand years derived from the PAGES 2k database years are stochastically analysed. Analyses include estimation of their first four moments and their autocorrelation functions (ACF), as well as the determination of the presence of Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour (known also as long term persistence). The data are investigated in groups according to their proxy type and location, while their statistical properties are also compared to those of the final temperature reconstructions.
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Additional material:
Y. Dimakos, E. C. Moschou, S. C. Batelis, Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Monthly rainfall trends in Greece (1950 - 2012), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-8289, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14594.07367, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
Trends in monthly rainfall during the period from 1950 to 2012 and the variability thereof in space and time are investigated. The time series analysed are from 120 stations and cover mainly the continental part of Greece. To estimate their trends, linear regression is used for each time series separately for: (a) the entire record length (1950 – 2012) and (b) for each half of the period (1950 – 1981 and 1982 – 2012). A spatially aggregated time series of rainfall over Greece is also produced and its correlations with climatic features of the northern hemisphere are explored.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1477/1/documents/Rainfall_EGU2014_po.pdf (1880 KB)
Additional material:
I. Pappa, Y. Dimakos, P. Dimas, P. Kossieris, P. Dimitriadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial and temporal variability of wind speed and energy over Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-13591, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11238.63048, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
To appraise the wind potential over Greece we analyse the main statistical properties of wind speed through time. To this end, we use 66 time series from 1932 to 2013 on daily and monthly time scale and examine the spatial variability of wind speed over Greece. To depict the main statistical behavior and potential of the wind over Greece, maps have been created illustrating the basic statistical characteristics of wind speed on monthly to annual time scale. We also examine time series of energy production from the currently developed system of key wind parks and we compare the theoretical potential with the actually produced energy. Finally, we explore a methodology to simulate wind energy production in a stochastic framework. In that context we generate hourly wind speed synthetic data using a modified Bartlett-Lewis model implemented in Hyetos. The results of our analysis offer an improved overall picture of wind speed variability over Greece and help us clarify to which extent Hyetos is applicable in the stochastic generation of wind speed time series.
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G. Karakatsanis, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-15858-6, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir’s water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes –such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir’s capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology.
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P. Dimas, D. Bouziotas, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A holistic approach towards optimal planning of hybrid renewable energy systems: Combining hydroelectric and wind energy, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-5851, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28854.70723, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
Hydropower with pumped storage is a proven technology with very high efficiency that offers a unique large-scale energy buffer. Energy storage is employed by pumping water upstream to take advantage of the excess of produced energy (e.g. during night) and next retrieving this water to generate hydro-power during demand peaks. Excess energy occurs due to other renewables (wind, solar) whose power fluctuates in an uncontrollable manner. By integrating these with hydroelectric plants with pumped storage facilities we can form autonomous hybrid renewable energy systems. The optimal planning and management thereof requires a holistic approach, where uncertainty is properly represented. In this context, a novel framework is proposed, based on stochastic simulation and optimization. This is tested in an existing hydrosystem of Greece, considering its combined operation with a hypothetical wind power system, for which we seek the optimal design to ensure the most beneficial performance of the overall scheme.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1442/2/documents/2014_egu_hybrid.pdf (1659 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology, society, change and uncertainty (invited talk), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-4243, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15432.93441, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
Heraclitus, who predicated that “panta rhei”, also proclaimed that “time is a child playing, throwing dice”. Indeed, change and uncertainty are tightly connected. The type of change that can be predicted with accuracy is usually trivial. Also, decision making under certainty is mostly trivial. The current acceleration of change, due to unprecedented human achievements in technology, inevitably results in increased uncertainty. In turn, the increased uncertainty makes the society apprehensive about the future, insecure and credulous to a developing future-telling industry. Several scientific disciplines, including hydrology, tend to become part of this industry. The social demand for certainties, no matter if these are delusional, is combined by a misconception in the scientific community confusing science with uncertainty elimination. However, recognizing that uncertainty is inevitable and tightly connected with change will help to appreciate the positive sides of both. Hence, uncertainty becomes an important object to study, understand and model. Decision making under uncertainty, developing adaptability and resilience for an uncertain future, and using technology and engineering means for planned change to control the environment are important and feasible tasks, all of which will benefit from advancements in the Hydrology of Uncertainty.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1441/1/documents/2014EGU_Uncertainty.pdf (2783 KB)
Additional material:
A. M. Filippidou, A. Andrianopoulos, C. Argyrakis, L. E. Chomata, V. Dagalaki, X. Grigoris, T. S. Kokkoris, M. Nasioka, K. A. Papazoglou, S.M. Papalexiou, H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Comparison of climate time series produced by General Circulation Models and by observed data on a global scale, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2014, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, Vienna, EGU2014-8529, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33887.87200, European Geosciences Union, 2014.
Outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for precipitation are compared with time series produced from observations. Comparison is made on global and hemispheric spatial scale and on annual time scale. Various time periods are examined, distinguishing periods before and after publishing of model outputs. Historical climate time series are compared with the outputs of GCMs for the 20th century and those for the A1B, B1 and A2 emission scenarios for the 21st century. Several indices are examined, i.e. the estimated means, variances, Hurst parameters, cross-correlations etc.
Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
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Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Glimpsing God playing dice over water and climate, Lectio Inauguralis, Bogotá, Colombia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13755.21282, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, 2014.
Dice throw has been a popular metaphor for the notion of randomness as reflected in many famous aphorisms. Indeed, the outcome of a die throw is not predictable. However, the die motion is fully describable in deterministic terms as it obeys Newton’s laws of motion. This makes its motion predictable for short time horizons. Even without using the equations of motion, by monitoring the die trajectory and analysing video frames it is possible to make predictions for short lead times (smaller enough than 1 s) using simple data-driven techniques (the method of analogues) or simple stochastic techniques. Thus, experimenting with dice using visualization techniques we can gain some understanding of how physical systems behave. Actually, dice behave like any other common physical system: predictable for short horizons, unpredictable for long horizons. The difference of dice from other common physical systems is that they enable unpredictability very quickly. Another experiment, this time using a mathematical model of a hydrological system deliberately made extraordinarily simple and fully deterministic, leads to the same conclusion: that the system trajectory is predictable for short horizons and becomes unpredictable for longer horizons. The two experiments show that the traditional notion of randomness and uncertainty, according to which natural phenomena are separated into two mutually exclusive components, random (or stochastic) and deterministic, is incorrect. A more correct view is that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature, that causality implies dependence of natural processes in time, thus suggesting predictability, but even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g., in initial conditions or in external perturbation) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon. On these premises it is possible to shape a consistent stochastic representation of natural processes, in which predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist and are not separable or additive components. Deciding which of the two dominates is simply a matter of specifying the time horizon and scale of the prediction. Long horizons of prediction are inevitably associated with high uncertainty, whose quantification relies on the long-term stochastic properties of the processes. While outcomes of different dice throws are typically independent to each other and comply with classical statistics, the motion in a specific die throw reveals strong dependence. Likewise, trajectories of physical systems are characterized by a strong dependence structure whose convergence to zero is slow. Essentially, this behaviour manifests that long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived and modelled through classical statistics. This makes classical statistics inappropriate for the study of physical systems and suggests the necessity of an advanced model, the so called Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastics. According to the latter, the future states are much more uncertain and unpredictable on long time horizons than implied by standard approaches. The omnipresence of this behaviour in Nature, as well as its implications, are illustrated using examples related to water and climate.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1426/1/documents/2014Bogota_Dice.pdf (5593 KB)
T.A. Cohn, D. Koutsoyiannis, H. F. Lins, and A. Montanari, If I had not believed it, I would not have seen it (Contribution to the Round Table for Harold Edwin Hurst), Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17110.65609, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1513/1/documents/2013KosCohn.pdf (3224 KB)
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, How to parsimoniously disaggregate rainfall in time, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11448.34560, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Generating finer scale time series of rainfall that are fully consistent with any given coarse-scale totals is still an important and open issue in hydrology. This is commonly tackled by disaggregation models. We focus on a simple and parsimonious model based on a particular nonlinear transformation of the variables obtained by a stepwise disaggregation approach, which generates time series with Hurst-Kolmogorov dependence structure. Unfortunately, nonlinear transformations of the variables do not preserve the additive property, which is one of the main attributes of the original disaggregation scheme. To overcome this problem, an empirical adjusting procedure is suggested in order to restore consistency, but such a procedure may, in turn, introduce bias in all statistics that are to be preserved. We modify the time series generated by our model in a way to be consistent with a given higher-level time series, without affecting the stochastic structure implied by our model.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1412/1/documents/2013Kos_RainDis.pdf (438 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Onof, N-Dimensional generalized Hurst-Kolmogorov process and its application to wind fields, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15642.64963, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
An N-dimensional generalized Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic model is presented that can simulate time-varying spatial geophysical fields, consistent with the observed long-term spatial and temporal persistence. The model is tested through some applications based on time-varying wind velocity field.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1411/1/documents/2013Kos_ND_Hurst.pdf (7096 KB)
H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simultaneous use of observations and deterministic model outputs to forecast persistent stochastic processes, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3230.4889, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
We combine a time series of a geophysical process with the output of a deterministic model, which simulates the aforementioned process in the past also providing future predictions. The purpose is to convert the single prediction of the deterministic model for the future evolution of the time series into a stochastic prediction. The time series is modelled by a stationary persistent normal stochastic process. The output of the deterministic model comprises the simulation of the historical part of the process and its deterministic future prediction. The complexity of the deterministic model is assumed to be irrelevant to our framework. A multivariate stochastic process, whose first variable is the true (observable) process and the second variable is a process representing the deterministic model, is formed. The covariance matrix function is computed and the distribution of the unobserved part of the stochastic process is calculated conditional on the observations and the output of the deterministic model.
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessing the error of geometry-based discretizations in groundwater modelling, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17320.37120, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
The dominant numerical methods for solving partial differential equations, pertaining to groundwater problems, are the Finite Difference Method (FDM), the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the Finite Volume Method (FVM). All these methods rely on a discretization of the flow domain that is guided by the boundary conditions and the locations of interest (mea surements, pumps, etc). The disadvantages of these methods are that the discretization of the FDM is not very adaptable whereas the other two have quite complicated mathematics. Rozos and Koutsoyiannis (2010) suggested the use of a multi-cell modelling approach that discretizes the flow domain based on its geometry (i.e. the flow lines and equipotential lines). This concept is more or less equivalent to the flow-nets, which have been introduced since the beginning of 20th century by Philipp Forchheimer to calculate the leakages under dams (Ettema, 2006). The advantages of this approach are that the discretization can be ac complished using a small number of irregularly shaped cells and that this approach results in simple algebraic equations. This approach is called Finite Volume Method with Simplified In tegration (FVMSI) because it is a simplification of the FVM. In a FVMSI mesh, the cells' boundaries should be either equipotential or flow lines (1 st FVMSI condition). Consequently, all cells between two successive equipotential lines (a row of cells) should have similar simulated hydraulic heads and hence only minimal flux should take place between them (lateral flux). However, because of modelling errors, generally this will not be the case. If there are significant lateral fluxes, then the solution per se manifests an inconsis tency of the mesh. In other words, since the solution indicates significant flux between some cells of the same row, then these cells should have been arranged into different rows (i.e., the mesh design is flawed).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1399/1/documents/Leonardo_Rozos_Koutsoyiannis_1.pdf (238 KB)
V.K. Vasilaki, S. Curceac, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Geophysical time series vs. financial time series of agricultural products: Similarities and differences, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36194.73922, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
It is known that agricultural systems depend on hydrometeorological factors such as rainfall and temperature. The purpose of this research is to analyse financial time series of agricultural products (e.g. wheat, coffee, corn, etc.), i.e., historical prices and futures prices, in comparison to time series of rainfall and temperature. The first target of the study is to spot possible similarities and differences in the stochastic characteristics between them, while the second is to explore whether these two types of time series are correlated in particular production areas.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1398/1/documents/2013STAHY_GeophysicalTimeSeries.pdf (1764 KB)
C. Pappas, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A quick gap-filling of missing hydrometeorological data, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22772.96641, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Missing values in hydrometeorological time series is a commonplace and filling these values remains still a challenge. Since datasets without missing values may be a prerequisite in performing many statistical analyses, a quick and efficient gap-filling methodology is required. In this study the problem of filling sporadic gaps of time series using time-adjacent observations from the same location is investigated. The applicability of a local average (i.e., based on few neighbouring in time observations) is examined and its advantages over the commonly used sample average (i.e., using the whole dataset) are illustrated. The analysis reveals that a quick and very efficient (i.e., minimum mean squared estimation error) gap-filling is achieved by combining a strictly local average (i.e., using one observation before and one after the missing value) with the sample mean.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1397/1/documents/2013Kos_GapFilling.pdf (1077 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Papanicolaou, Climacogram-based modelling of isotropic turbulence, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
The stochastic structure of isotropic and homogeneous turbulence is studied in terms of its climacogram. A stochastic model is presented and tested over observational data of different scales and isotropy ratios. Observational data include solar wind, atmospheric wind velocities, laboratory scale wind velocities and turbulent buoyant jet concentrations. Theoretical expressions of the spectrum, structural and autocorrelation functions produced directly from the model show good agreement with data and differences from the existing models of turbulence.
P. Dimitriadis, K. Tzouka, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Windows of predictability in dice motion, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19417.52322, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Dice throw experiments are performed based on visualization techniques. Video frames taken with frequency of 120 Hz are retrieved making it possible to monitor the dice trajectories in time and space. A statistical analysis is performed on the observations and a model is built to predict the state of the die a few frames later. The time window for which the prediction has some skill is then studied. The results show that even in dice throws, which are commonly used to symbolize randomness, there is some predictability for short horizons.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1394/1/documents/2013Kos_DiceGame_1.pdf (1945 KB)
T. Tsitseli, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Koukouvinos, and N. Mamassis, Construction of ombrian curves using the Hydrognomon software system, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34517.01762, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Hydrognomon is an application for the analysis of hydrological data and includes several applications for time series processing, such as time step aggregation and regularization, interpolation, regression analysis and infilling of missing values, consistency tests, data filtering, graphical and tabular visualization of time series, etc. Both its source code and the executable program are freely available. The new version of Hydrognomon includes a module for the construction of ombrian (intensity-duration-frequency) curves. It is based on a mathematical framework that expresses ombrian curves with unified relationships giving rain intensity in terms of duration and return period, either for a single gauging station or for a station group over a specified area. In the latter case, it supports either single parameters set or spatially varying parameters. The framework is completed with raw rainfall data processing, data management and storage, graphical user interface, and output data graphs and export facilities.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1393/1/documents/2013Kos_Ombrian.pdf (725 KB)
Additional material:
E. C. Moschou, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, I. Fountoulakis, Y. Markonis, S.M. Papalexiou, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Spatial and temporal rainfall variability over Greece, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19102.95045, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
The main objective of this study is to determine the major statistical properties of rainfall over Greece and analyse their variability through time. To this end, the following properties of rainfall variability were investigated on time series extracted from Hellenic National Meteorological Service records that date back to 1950: (1) the spatial correlation among the stations and the existence of regions which demonstrate homogeneity; (2) the temporal occurrence of maximum rainfall (the month which the daily maximum occurs) and the ratio of the daily maximum to the annual sum; (3) the spatial distribution of the daily maxima, which are observed in a number of stations simultaneously, as well as the rank correlation in space of annual rainfall; (4) the classification of the empirical distributions of daily maxima. The results of our analysis offer an improved overall picture of rainfall variability over Greece and help us clarify whether some attributes have changed over the last 60 years.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1392/1/documents/Kos_RainVariability_poster.pdf (1640 KB)
N. Bountas, N. Boboti, E. Feloni, L. Zeikos, Y. Markonis, A. Tegos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temperature variability over Greece: Links between space and time, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17739.80164, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Temperature is strongly linked to the hydrological cycle in numerous ways and mainly with the evapotranspiration. Our aim here is to examine the possible influence of spatial characteristics on the temperature temporal variability of the monthly absolute maxima/minima and the monthly means over Greece. To achieve this, the temperature records of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service station network, which date back to 1950, are analysed. The analysis involved two steps: the determination of regions with similar climatic properties and the investigation of the possible correlations of temperature in time. Thus, the time series are classified in three groups based on their location (continental, coastal and island) and four types regarding the proximity of the station to a city (at the city centre, near the city border, far away from city border) or to an airport. Each one of the time series is then examined for (a) the influence of the city heat island as Greek cities expanded in time, (b) the effect of the general atmospheric circulation (NAO phase), (c) its correlation to the global temperature record and (d) the implied change on evapotranspiration in the area.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1391/1/documents/Kos_Temperature_poster_.pdf (2010 KB)
Y. Markonis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of drought characteristics in different temporal and spatial scales: A case study in the Mediterranean region , Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
In 1988-1995 Greece experienced a drought, one of the most extended (both in space and time) and intense since the beginning of hydro-meteorological instrumental measurements. The aim of this study is to describe the phenomenon in different temporal and spatial scales in order to (a) identify possible links with Mediterranean/global climatic regime and (b) to demonstrate the role of the marginal distribution and the autocorrelation function in estimating the return period of the drought and its impact. Three spatial scales were examined: the local scale (regions of Peloponnese in the southern and Macedonia in the northern part of Greece; ~2x2° each), the national scale (~8x8°) and the Mediterranean scale (~15x45°). In the time domain the monthly, annual and inter-annual time steps were taken, while the time horizon is that of the instrumental record as well as a broader time window obtained by introducing qualitative evidence from paleoclimatic studies. Our findings show both strong temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity, which imply enhanced uncertainty.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1390/1/documents/KosDroughtPoster.pdf (661 KB)
G. Karakatsanis, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Entropy and reliability of water use via a statistical approach of scarcity, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24450.68809, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
The paper examines economic reliability of water resource availability within a stochastic framework. Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012) provide water use data for agricultural and industrial production. The current work utilizes these findings by coupling hydrological processes with reliability for economic use via a statistical approach of scarcity. Water extracted from the hydrological cycle is never bounded permanently, but only creates temporary scarcity via the competitive use of its limited economically useful attributes (such as its quality). The replenishment rate of freshwater reservoirs is limited and the return of water to its natural path requires energy inputs and time. Hence, what the economy is actually deprived of via the intensification of water use, the diversion of a water resource from its natural hydrological path and the eventual degradation after its use is its immediate availability, which is equivalent to increased uncertainty as the economy reaches closer to its natural water supply reliability limit. Georgescu-Roegen (1986) postulated a connection between increased dispersion and supply uncertainty of a resource to entropy, which in the case of water might be interpreted as increase of the probability of temporal unavailability.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1389/1/documents/Kos_Karakatsanis.pdf (736 KB)
P. Kossieris, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Coupling the strengths of optimization and simulation for calibrating Poisson cluster models, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15223.21929, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Many hydrological applications require use of rainfall data across a wide range of time scales. To simulate rainfall at fine time scales, stochastic approaches are usually enrolled. A leading representative is the Bartlett-Lewis model, which belongs to the family of Poisson-cluster processes that represent rainfall events. The usual approach of model calibration comprises the incorporation of the theoretical model equations in an objective function and the optimization of that function. However, it is obvious that this procedure is limited to the case that analytical equations exist for the modelled stochastic properties of the process. Yet such analytical equations cannot be derived for key characteristics such as skewness and parameters determining the distribution of extreme values. Here we present an innovative approach that remedies those weaknesses through the combined use of simulation and optimization. During model calibration, the model statistics are derived by Monte Carlo simulation, instead of theoretical equations. Various calibration criteria as well as statistical parameters are introduced aiming at more faithful representation of the rainfall process at different time scales. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated using a long data series from a rain gauge in Athens.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1388/1/documents/Kos_BartlettLewis_poster.pdf (1605 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.15223.21929
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | De Luca, D. L., and L. Galasso, Calibration of NSRP models from extreme value distributions, Hydrology, 6(4), 89, doi:10.3390/hydrology6040089, 2019. |
| 2. | Park, J., D. Cross, C. Onof, Y. Chen, and D. Kim, A simple scheme to adjust Poisson cluster rectangular pulse rainfall models for improved performance at sub-hourly timescales, Journal of Hydrology, 598, 126296, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126296, 2021. |
| 3. | De Luca, D. L., and A. Petroselli, STORAGE (STOchastic RAinfall GEnerator): A user-friendly software for generating long and high-resolution rainfall time series, Hydrology, 8(2), 76, doi:10.3390/hydrology8020076, 2021. |
P. Kossieris, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The use of stochastic objective functions in water resource optimization problems, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18578.66249, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
The hydrological and water resource problems are characterized by the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. The implementation of Monte Carlo simulation techniques within powerful optimization methods are required, in order to handle such uncertainties. Here we examine the combined performance of those two powerful tools to a wide range of global optimization applications, which extend from mathematical problems to hydrological calibration problems. In all cases, uncertainty is explicitly considered in terms of stochastic objective functions. In particular, we test a number of benchmark functions to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative optimization techniques. Moreover, we examine two real-world calibration problems, involving a lumped rainfall-runoff models and a stochastic disaggregation model. We investigate them with different calibration criteria and under different sources of uncertainty, in order to assess not only the robustness of the derived parameters but also the predictive capacity of the models.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1387/1/documents/Kos_StochObjFunctions_poster.pdf (641 KB)
P. Dimas, D. Bouziotas, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic simulation framework for planning and management of combined hydropower and wind energy systems, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27491.55841, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Pumped storage within hydroelectric reservoir systems is a proven technology with very high efficiency, as well as the unique large-scale energy buffer. The storage of energy is implemented by pumping water upstream, for taking advantage of the excess of energy (e.g. during night hours), and next retrieving this water to generate hydropower during demand peaks. Interestingly, this excess can be offered by other renewable energy sources, particularly wind turbines, which can be integrated within hydroelectric systems with pumped storage facilities, to formulate autonomous hybrid renewable energy schemes. The optimal planning and management of such systems is a challenging task, which requires a holistic viewpoint and a consistent representation of the multiple sources of uncertainty. In this respect, a novel framework is proposed, which is tested in an existing hydrosystem of Greece (i.e. the reservoir system of Aliakmon, which also serves other water uses), considering a combined operation with a hypothetical wind power system. The two components, which are linked through a single pumping storage plant, are modelled in different time resolutions. In particular, for the representation of the water resource system we adopt, as typically, a monthly time step, while for the wind power system we use hourly steps. For both systems, the input variables (i.e. hydrological inflows and wind velocity, respectively) are generated via appropriate stochastic simulation models, by means of synthetic time series of 1000 years length. In order to ensure the most beneficial performance of the integrated system, we investigate different design parameters of the wind turbines, for which we optimize the operation policy of the hydroelectric reservoirs.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1386/1/documents/KosHybrid_poster.pdf (691 KB)
E. Michailidi, T. Mastrotheodoros, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Flood modelling in river basins with highly variable runoff, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30847.00167, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
In the Mediterranean area numerous small to medium-scale river basins are characterized by highly-variable runoff, intermittent or ephemeral. This is due to both the climatic regime and the geomorphological and physiographic peculiarities of the hydrological system itself. Typically, these basins are affected by flash floods, for which effective modelling can be more difficult than in the case of large basins with permanent runoff. In this study we compare different modelling approaches in two representative catchments (one in Greece and one in Cyprus), on the basis of a number of observed flood events. Initially, we employ the well-known SCS-CN method, combined with a synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) approach, whose parameters (namely, the curve number, the initial abstraction ratio and the time-to-peak of the SUH) are calibrated against each individual flood event. Yet, even with calibrated parameters, the above method, which is widespread among flood engineers, generally fails to reproduce the observed hydrographs. Next, we test different modelling structures, all of which use elementary hydraulic analogues (by means of interconnected tanks) to represent the storage processes, which are dominant in such types of basins. For each event we run different settings of the calibration problem, thus obtaining a large set of alternative optimal parameter values. The significant variability of the parameter values reflects the complexity of the involved hydrological processes. In addition, it reveals the crucial role of flood measurements, in order to build realistic models and provide consistent estimations of the related uncertainties.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1385/1/documents/Kos_Basins_poster.pdf (1881 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30847.00167
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Taguas, E., Y. Yuan, F. Licciardello, and J. Gómez, Curve Numbers for olive orchard catchments: case study in Southern Spain, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000892, 05015003, 2015. |
A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, P. Dimitriadis, A. Tegos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic simulation framework for flood engineering, Facets of Uncertainty: 5th EGU Leonardo Conference – Hydrofractals 2013 – STAHY 2013, Kos Island, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16848.51201, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2013.
Flood engineering is typically tackled as a sequential application of formulas and models, with specific assumptions and parameter values, thus providing fully deterministic outputs. In this procedure, the unique probabilistic concept is the return period of rainfall, which is set a priori, to represent the acceptable risk of all design variables of interest (peak flows, flood hydrographs, flow depths and velocities, inundated areas, etc.). Yet, a more consistent approach would require estimating the risks by integrating the uncertainties of all individual variables. This option can be offered by stochastic simulation, which is the most effective and powerful technique for analysing systems of high complexity and uncertainty. This presupposes to recognize which of the modelling components represent time-varying processes and which ones represent unknown, thus uncertain, parameters. In the proposed framework both should be handled as random variables. The following computational steps are envisaged: (a) generation of synthetic time series of areal rainfall, through multivariate stochastic disaggregation models; (b) generation of random sets of initial soil moisture conditions; (c) run of hydrological and hydraulic simulation models with random sets of parameter values, picked from suitable distributions; (d) statistical analysis of the model outputs and determination of empirical pdfs; and (e) selection of the design value, which corresponds to the acceptable risk. This approach allows for estimating the full probability distribution of the output variables, instead of a unique value, as resulted by the deterministic procedure. In this context, stochastic simulation also offers the means to introduce the missing culture of uncertainty appreciation in flood engineering.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1384/1/documents/KosFloodStochSim.pdf (1860 KB)
F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Effect of time discretization and finite record length on continuous-time stochastic properties, IAHS - IAPSO - IASPEI Joint Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29955.71206, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans, International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, 2013.
Natural processes evolve in continuous time but their observation is inevitably made at discrete time. The observational time series formed are either series of instantaneous values of the natural phenomenon at a certain time step or aggregated quantities during this time step. In addition, the observation period is apparently a finite time period. Both time discretization and finite length may strongly affect the stochastic properties inferred from the data. In particular, time discretization distorts the stochastic properties at small time scales, while the finite length affects the properties at large time scales. Modelling of natural processes is typical made assuming discrete time and parameter estimation is usually done using classical statistical estimators which assume that observations are random samples. All these are inadequate practices and result in inappropriate and biased models. A different modelling strategy is proposed, in which the stochastic model is by definition a continuous-time process and the distortion due to discretization and finite-period observation is explicitly taken into account in model calibration. An additional benefit of the proposed strategy is that it avoids the too artificial, often non-parsimonious, families of discrete time stochastic models (like the ARIMA(p,d,q) models).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1380/1/documents/2013IAHS_Spectral.pdf (724 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological modelling in presence of non-stationarity induced by urbanisation: an assessment of the value of information, “Knowledge for the future”, IAHS - IAPSO – IASPEI Joint Assembly 2013, Gothenburg, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13178.49607, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2013.
The proposed protocol of the workshop is followed, which regards the investigation of the effect of non-stationarity due to urbanisation on the performance of a hydrological model. In particular, the rainfall-runoff component of HYDROGEIOS modelling framework (Efstratiadis et al., 2008) is used. This is a parsimonious model of the conceptual type, based on the idea of Hydrological Response Unit (HRU). It is parameterised per HRU with seven parameters in each. Both a lumped and a semi-distributed version are employed. In the latter, two HRUs are assumed, representing the urban and rural areas of the basin. The Evolutionary Annealing Simplex method is used to obtain the best parameter set along with a large number of other retained parameter sets. Levels 1 and 2 of the proposed protocol provide the necessary information for analysis of Level 3, where a stochastic framework is considered inspired by the ideas proposed by Montanari & Koutsoyiannis (2012). This takes into account external information on urbanised fraction of the studied basin. A relationship is established between data on fraction of urbanised area and one of more parameters of the lumped model, while the semi-distributed one takes into account the fraction of urbanised area explicitly. Comparison of prediction intervals with and without exploiting such relationship allows the assessment of the value of information regarding the factor that induces nonstationarity. The methodology as a whole is applied to one of the two drainage basins that show growing urbanisation (Ferson Creek at St. Charles, USA).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1377/1/documents/2013_IAHS_poster.pdf (602 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy: from thermodynamics to hydrology (invited talk), Orlob First International Symposium on Theoretical Hydrology, Davis, California, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28277.99048, University California Davis, 2013.
In probability theory, entropy, as defined by Shannon, is none other than uncertainty quantified. The definition of entropy is very economical as it only needs the concepts of a random variable and of expectation. Commonly, probabilistic and thermodynamic entropy have been regarded as two distinct concepts having in common only the name. However, according to another school of thought, probabilistic entropy and thermodynamic entropy are logically identical concepts with only slight technical differences. Here two examples related to hydrology are used to support the latter thesis. Specifically, it is illustrated that two thermodynamic laws, the law of ideal gases and the law of phase change transition (Clausius-Clapeyron), can be derived from probabilistic entropy. The importance of the entropy concept relies on the principle of maximum entropy, which can be regarded both as a physical (ontological) principle obeyed by natural systems (cf. the Second Law of thermodynamics), as well as a logical (epistemological) principle applicable in making inference about natural systems. This principle expresses the tendency of entropy to become maximal, which constitutes the driving force of change and evolution and also offers the basis to understand and describe Nature. By maximizing entropy, i.e. uncertainty, we can describe the behaviour of physical systems. Such description is essentially probabilistic. However, if a system is composed of numerous identical elements, the uncertainty, despite being maximal at the microscopic level, at a macroscopic system it becomes as low as to yield a physical law that is in effect deterministic; for example, this is the case in the equilibrium of liquid water and water vapour. Extremal entropy considerations provide a theoretical basis also in modelling hydrological processes. However, at the high macroscopization levels related to the hydrological systems there is no hope to derive deterministic laws and thus only stochastic modelling is feasible. Linking statistical thermophysics with hydrology with a unifying view of entropy as uncertainty is a promising scientific direction.
Remarks:
Please visit/cite the peer-reviewed version of this article:
Koutsoyiannis, D., Entropy: from thermodynamics to hydrology, Entropy, 16 (3), 1287–1314, 2014.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1365/1/documents/2013OrlobDavisEntropy.pdf (2549 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, In defence of stationarity (invited talk), IAHS - IAPSO - IASPEI Joint Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18211.66083, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans, International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior, 2013.
As long as “steady flow” describes a flow, a “stationary process” describes a process. It is then a tautology to say that in a process there is change. Even a stationary process describes a system changing in time, rather than a static one which keeps a constant state all the time. However, this is often missed, which has led to misusing the term “nonstationarity” as a synonymous to “change”. A simple rule to avoid such misuse is to answer the question: can the change be predicted in deterministic terms? If the answer is positive, then it is legitimate to invoke nonstationarity. Otherwise a stationary model should be sought. In addition, we should have in mind that models are made to simulate the future rather than to describe the past, which is better to try to observe than simulate. In this respect, in studying the above question we must assess whether or not future changes are deterministically predictable. Usually they are not and thus the models should, on the one hand, be stationary and, on the other hand, describe in stochastic terms the full variability, originating from all agents of change. Even if the past evolution of the process of interest contains changes explainable in deterministic terms (e.g. urbanization), again it is better to describe the future conditions in stationary terms, after “stationarizing” the past observations, i.e. adapting them to represent the future conditions. An exception in which nonstationary models are justified is the case of planned and controllable future changes (e.g. catchment modification by construction of hydraulic infrastructures, water abstractions), which indeed allow prediction in deterministic terms.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1364/1/documents/2013IAHS_InDefenceOfStationarity.pdf (1182 KB)
A. Oikonomou, P. Dimitriadis, A. Koukouvinos, A. Tegos, V. Pagana, P. Panagopoulos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Floodplain mapping via 1D and quasi-2D numerical models in the valley of Thessaly, Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-10366, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25165.03040, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
The European Union Floods Directive defines a flood as ‘a covering by water of land not normally covered by water’. Human activities, such as agriculture, urban development, industry and tourism, contribute to an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events. The study of the hydraulic behaviour of a river is important in flood risk management. Here, we investigate the behaviour of three hydraulic models, with different theoretical frameworks, in a real case scenario. The area is located in the Penios river basin, in the plain of Thessaly (Greece). The three models used are the one-dimensional HEC-RAS and the quasi two-dimensional LISFLOOD-FP and FLO-2D which are compared to each other, in terms of simulated maximum water depth as well as maximum flow velocity, and to a real flood event. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how each simulation is affected by the river and floodplain roughness coefficient, in terms of flood inundation.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25165.03040
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Μίχας, Σ. Ν., Κ. Ι. Νικολάου, Σ. Λ. Λαζαρίδου, και Μ. Ν. Πικούνης, Σύγκριση μαθηματικών ομοιωμάτων διόδευσης πλημμυρικού κύματος από υποθετική θραύσης φράγματος Αγιόκαμπου, Πρακτικά 2ου Πανελλήνιου Συνεδρίου Φραγμάτων και Ταμιευτήρων, Αθήνα, Αίγλη Ζαππείου, Ελληνική Επιτροπή Μεγάλων Φραγμάτων, 2013. |
T. Iliopoulou, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessment of the dependence structure of the annual rainfall using a large data set, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-5276, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13080.19202, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
Natural processes are considered to be influenced by long-term persistence, the so-called Hurst effect. A variety of studies have been conducted to identify the Hurst behaviour in different data sets and different scientific disciplines ranging from geophysics to economics and to social sciences. In this study we try to test the hypothesis of the existence of long-range dependence in annual rainfall by applying the aggregated variance method in a large set of annual rainfall time series from more than a thousand stations worldwide. In addition, we figure out a simple statistical test in order to assess the hypothesis that the dependence structure of annual rainfall is Markovian.
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Additional material:
S. Nerantzaki, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Extreme rainfall distribution tails: Exponential, subexponential or hyperexponential?, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-5149, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29857.40803, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
The upper tail of a probability distribution controls the behavior of both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme events. In general, based on their tail behavior, probability distributions can be categorized into two families (with reference to the exponential distribution): subexponential and hyperexponential. The latter corresponds to milder and less frequent extremes. In order to evaluate the behavior of rainfall extremes, we examine data from 3 477 stations from all over the world with sample size over 100 years. We apply the Mean Excess Function (MEF) which is a common graphical method that results in a zero slope line when applied to exponentially distributed data and in a positive slope in the case of subexponential distributions. To implement the method, we constructed confidence intervals for the slope of the Exponential distribution as functions of the sample size. The validation of the method using Monte Carlo techniques reveals that it performs well especially for large samples. The analysis shows that subexponential distributions are generally in better agreement with rainfall extremes compared to the commonly used exponential ones.
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A. Mystegniotis, V. Vasilaki, I. Pappa, S. Curceac, D. Saltouridou, N. Efthimiou, I. Papatsoutsos, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Clustering of extreme events in typical stochastic models, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-4599, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10353.89449, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
We study the clustering properties of extreme events as produced by typical stochastic models and compare the results with the ones of observed data. Specifically the stochastic models that we use are the AR(1), AR(2), ARMA(1,1), as well as the Hurst-Kolmogorov model. In terms of data, we use instrumental and proxy hydroclimatic time series. To quantify clustering we study the multi-scale properties of each process and in particular the variation of standard deviation with time scale as well of the frequencies of similar events (e.g. those exceeding a certain threshold with time scale). To calculate these properties we use either analytical methods when possible, or Monte Carlo simulation.
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E. Anagnostopoulou, A. Galani, P. Dimas, A. Karanasios, T. Mastrotheodoros, E. Michailidi, D. Nikolopoulos, S. Pontikos, F. Sourla, A. Chazapi, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Record breaking properties for typical autocorrelation structures, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-4520, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20420.22400, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
Record-breaking occurrences in hydrometeorological processes are often used particularly in communicating information to the public and their analysis offers the possibility of better comprehending extreme events. However, the typical comprehension depends on prototypes characterized by pure randomness. In fact the occurrence of record breaking depends on the marginal distribution and the autocorrelation function of the process as well the length of available record. Here we study the influence of the process autocorrelation structure on the statistics of record-breaking occurrences giving emphasis on the differences with those of a purely random process. The particular stochastic processes, which we examine, are the AR(1), AR(2) and ARMA(1,1), as well as the Hurst-Kolmogorov process. The necessary properties are calculated using either analytical methods when possible or Monte Carlo simulation. We also compare the model results with observed hydrometeorological time series.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Climacogram-based pseudospectrum: a simple tool to assess scaling properties, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-4209, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18506.57284, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
Power-spectrum is a powerful stochastic tool to assess important properties of a process, including scaling behaviour. However, when constructed from time series with short lengths, as is typically the case in hydroclimatic applications, the empirical power spectrum is too rough and the information it provides may be distorted and misleading. Typical smoothing techniques may induce further distortion and bias. A pseudospectrum technique is proposed, which is based on the climacogram of the process. The climacogram expresses the variance (or standard deviation) of a process as a function of time scale of aggregation and an appropriate transformation thereof resembles the power spectrum. In particular its asymptotic slopes for frequency (inverse time scale) tending to zero or infinity are the same as those in the formal power spectrum. In this respect, it can be used to infer the scaling properties of a process. This pseudospectrum does not involve direct or inverse Fourier transforms and thus it is very easy to construct. Furthermore, it is smooth by definition because it is derived from variances of the time series aggregated at several scales, rather than the time series per se.
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G. Tsekouras, C. Ioannou, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes for optimizing hybrid renewable energy systems, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-11660, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30250.62404, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
The drawbacks of conventional energy sources including their negative environmental impacts emphasize the need to integrate renewable energy sources into energy balance. However, the renewable sources strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological processes, including wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of hybrid energy systems we investigate the stochastic properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence. We use wind speed and sunshine duration time series retrieved from a European database of daily records and we estimate representative values of the Hurst coefficient for both variables. We conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale. To this we use the Castalia software system which performs multivariate stochastic simulation. Using these time series as input, we perform stochastic simulation of an autonomous hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system and optimize its performance using genetic algorithms. For the system design we optimize the sizing of the system in order to satisfy the energy demand with high reliability also minimizing the cost. While the simulation scale is the daily, a simple method allows utilizing the subdaily distribution of the produced wind power. Various scenarios are assumed in order to examine the influence of input parameters, such as the Hurst coefficient, and design parameters such as the photovoltaic panel angle.
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A. Venediki, S. Giannoulis, C. Ioannou, L. Malatesta, G. Theodoropoulos, G. Tsekouras, Y. Dialynas, S.M. Papalexiou, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The Castalia stochastic generator and its applications to multivariate disaggregation of hydro-meteorological processes, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-11542, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15675.41764, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
Castalia is a software system that performs multivariate stochastic simulation preserving essential marginal statistics, specifically mean value, standard deviation and skewness, as well as joint second order statistics, namely auto- and cross-correlation. Furthermore, Castalia reproduces long-term persistence. It follows a disaggregation approach, starting from the annual time scale and proceeding to finer scales such as monthly and daily. To assess the performance of the Castalia system we test it for several hydrometeorological processes such as rainfall, sunshine duration, temperature and wind speed. To this aim we retrieve time series of these processes from a large database of daily records and we estimate their statistical properties, including long-term persistence. We generate synthetic time series using the Castalia software and we examine its efficiency in reproducing the important statistical properties of the observed data.
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Additional material:
Y. Markonis, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The role of teleconnections in extreme (high and low) precipitation events: The case of the Mediterranean region, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-5368, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10642.25286, European Geosciences Union, 2013.
During the last years large-scale climatic indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been used to describe a certain portion of climatic variability in different temporal and spatial scales. In this context, the climate in the Mediterranean region has been mainly correlated with the NAO index, while there is also some evidence for seasonal associations with the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) during the summer, and the Siberian High during the winter. Here, we explore the possible links between extreme (high and low) precipitation events in the Mediterranean basin and several large-scale climatic indices, such as these mentioned above and also East Atlantic Pattern, Scandinavia Pattern, Polar/Eurasia Pattern, West Africa Monsoon Index and Siberian High. In order to achieve that, we use precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and index data from National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA).
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Additional material:
E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Studying solute transport using parsimonious groundwater modelling, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 15, Vienna, EGU2013-2225, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29516.62087, European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria, 2013.
Groundwater modelling is plagued by the increased uncertainty concerning the properties (hydraulic conductivity, porosity, geometry) and the conditions (boundary conditions, initial conditions, stresses) of aquifers. Some studies suggest that the magnitude of this uncertainty does not justify the detailed level of representation and simulation employed by groundwater models that numerically solve differential equations. Rozos and Koutsoyiannis (2010) suggested that multi-cell models should be considered as an alternative option in cases of increased uncertainty. This study extends that work by including solute transport in a multi-cell model that allows discretization of the flow domain using a low number of cells of flexible geometry. This method was tested in a case study that has analytical solution
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F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Multifractal downscaling models: a crash test, 3rd STAHY International Workshop on Statistical Methods for Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Tunis, Tunisia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32872.06404, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012.
The need of understanding and modelling the space-time variability of natural processes in geosciences produced a large body of literature over the last thirty years. Scaling approaches provide parsimonious models which can be applied to a wide scale range of geoprocesses and are based on the empirical detection of some patterns in observational data, i.e., a scale invariant mechanism repeating scale after scale. Models following this approach are based upon the assumption that the relationship of raw moments vs. time scale is a power law. In this context, the multifractal framework has been extensively studied and it has become clear that multiplicative cascades are the generic multifractal process. In this work we investigate random multiplicative cascades in terms of their capability of downscaling rainfall in time. By appropriate assumptions we form “crash test” conditions (e.g. theoretically infinite raw moments) and we investigate whether the cascades are able to capture and respect these conditions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1444/1/documents/2012STAHY_TunisMultifractals.pdf (1047 KB)
P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Y. Markonis, Spectrum vs Climacogram, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, EGU2012-993, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27838.89920, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
Two common stochastic tools, the spectrum and the climacogram are compared. Using time series from (a) a couple of simple harmonic functions, (b) synthetic data generated using a complex stochastic model, (c) a large-scale paleoclimatic reconstructions and (d) laboratory-scale measurements of turbulent velocity, we estimate the spectra (using fast Fourier transform) and climacograms. Both original and smooth versions of the spectra are used. The spectrum and the climacogram tools are compared to each other giving emphasis to each advantages and disadvantages and also, some questions regarding the interpretation and inference from the above methods, are discussed.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, The necessity for large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems, Hydrology and Society, EGU Leonardo Topical Conference Series on the hydrological cycle 2012, Torino, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30355.48161, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
Since global economy is dominated by the energy sector, the planning and management of energy systems is a prerequisite for a sustainable future. It is widely recognized that the existing paradigm, based on the intense use of fossil fuels, if far from sustainable and thus a substantial shift is needed, in the direction of energy saving and developing renewable sources. Yet, current energy planning in Europe, while it strongly promotes the penetration of such systems, has failed to account for the significant differences thereof with conventional energy sources. Small scale energy production units are encouraged and even subsidized. In addition, their piecewise view and the lack of an integrated development plan at country scale, results in increased costs and puts significant restrictions on energy management. It is well-known that renewable energy is highly varying and unpredictable, as it strongly depends on the hydro-meteorological conditions. The inherent uncertainty of the related natural processes is directly reflected in energy production, which cannot follow the temporal distribution of the corresponding demand. An additional drawback is the lack of regulating capacity, which makes impossible to store the excess of production. In this context, the concept of a future scene in which renewable sources dominate will be feasible only if renewable energy resources are combined with technologies for energy storage. The proven technique of pumped storage (i.e. pumping of water to an upstream location consuming available energy, to be retrieved later as hydropower) represents the best available technology since it does not emit any by-products to the environment, and is cost efficient, with loss ratios less than 10% (in large scale projects). In addition, hydroelectric energy production does not consume water (only converts its potential energy) while it can also be combined with other water uses (domestic, agricultural, industrial). Hybrid systems, combining multiple sources of renewable energy with pumped-storage facilities, are generally viewed as proven technology to increase renewable energy source penetration levels in power systems. However, such systems have, in general, limited capacity and are mostly implemented in relatively small areas, e.g. to serve autonomous island grids. On the other hand, the dominant ideological views especially in the European Union disfavours the building of new dams and large hydro-projects. However, the issue of scale, which refers to both the size of energy units and their spatial extent, is of major importance, since efficiency (in terms of produced energy to installed capacity) increases with scale, as does reliability (in terms of covering energy demand). For this reason, it is impossible to envisage a future energy landscape without large-scale hydroelectric reservoirs, equipped with pumped storage. To this extent, a holistic planning for large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems, in which water, wind and solar radiation are the sources of energy, with water in an additional integrative and regulating role, becomes plausible and desirable.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1295/1/documents/LeonardoHybrid.pdf (1022 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, D. Bouziotas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The parameterization-simulation-optimization framework for the management of hydroelectric reservoir systems, Hydrology and Society, EGU Leonardo Topical Conference Series on the hydrological cycle 2012, Torino, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36437.22243, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
The optimal control and management of large-scale hydroelectric reservoirs remains a challenging issue in water resources modelling and its importance increases, as the growing penetration of renewable sources in the actual energy scene creates additional requirements for energy regulation and storage. In this respect, it is essential to review both the current management policies and the related methodologies for supporting decision-making in reservoir management problems, which are rather insufficient. Older approaches, based on systems analysis (i.e. linear, nonlinear, dynamic or stochastic dynamic programming), as well as more advanced concepts and tools, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, fail to provide the essential holistic approach, with regard to the various complexities of the problem. Such drawbacks arise due to the large number of variables, the nonlinearities of system dynamics, the inherent uncertainty of future conditions (inflows, demands), as well as the multiple and often conflicting water uses and constraints that are involved in the management of such systems. On the other hand, the parameterization-simulation-optimization (PSO) framework provides a feasible and general methodology applicable to any type of hydrosystem, including complex hydropower schemes. This uses stochastic simulation to generate synthetic system inputs and represents the operation of the entire system through a simulation model as faithful as possible, without demanding a specific mathematical form that would possibly imply oversimplifications. Such representation fully respects the physical constraints, while at the same time evaluates the system operation constraints and objectives in probabilistic terms, through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, to optimize the system performance and evaluate its control variables, a stochastic optimization procedure is employed (in particular, the evolutionary annealing-simplex method). The latter is substantially facilitated if the entire representation is parsimonious, i.e. if the number of control variables is kept as small as possible. This is ensured through a suitable system parameterization, in terms of parametric expressions of operation rules for the major system controls (e.g. reservoirs, power plants). The PSO framework is implemented within the “Hydronomeas” decision support system (DSS), which has been successfully applied for the operational management of water resource systems of various levels of complexity, including the water supply system of Athens. Recently, both the modelling background and the functionalities of the DSS were upgraded to also handle hydropower generation components, as well as pumping-storage facilities. This new version is tested in a challenging case study, involving the simulation of the Acheloos-Thessaly hydrosystem. Acheloos is characterized by very high runoff and hosts 1/3 of the installed hydropower capacity of Greece. Apart from the existing scheme of projects, future configurations are also investigated, involving the diversion of part of the upstream water resources to the adjacent plain of Thessaly. For each configuration, the optimal management policy is located, on the basis of multiple performance criteria that account for both economy and reliability. Various formulations of the objective function are examined, combining different types of benefits from water and energy production (distinguishing for firm and secondary energy) and costs (due to pumping). Finally the sensitivity of solutions against the assumptions of the stochastic simulation model is examined. Emphasis is given on the effect of long- vs. short-term persistence of the simulated inflows.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1294/1/documents/PosterLeonardo.pdf (339 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36437.22243
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Bayesteh, M., and A. Azari, Stochastic optimization of reservoir operation by applying hedging rules, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 147(2), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001312, 2021. |
A. Efstratiadis, A. D. Koussis, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and S. Lykoudis, Flood design recipes vs. reality: Can predictions for ungauged basins be trusted? – A perspective from Greece, Advanced methods for flood estimation in a variable and changing environment, Volos, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19660.00644, University of Thessaly, 2012.
As a result of its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- and medium-scale steep hydrological basins of usually ephemeral regime. Typically, their drainage area does not exceed few hundreds of km2, while the vast majority of them lacks of measuring infrastructures. For this reason, and despite the great scientific and technological advances in flood hydrology, the everyday engineering practices still follow simplistic rules-of-thumb and semi-empirical approaches, which are feasible and easy to implement in ungauged areas. In general, these “recipes” have been developed many decades ago, based on field data from few experimental catchments abroad. However, none of them has ever been validated against the peculiarities of the hydroclimatic regime and the geomorphological conditions of Greece. This has an obvious impact on the quality and reliability of hydrological studies, and, consequently, the safety and cost of the related flood-protection works. In order to provide a consistent design framework and ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk in ungauged basins (which is key issue of the 2007/60/EU Directive), it is imperative to revise the rather outdated engineering practices, by incorporating methodologies that are adapted to local peculiarities. In particular, the collection of reliable hydrological data is essential for evaluating and verifying the existing “recipes” and updating the design criteria. In this context, we are elaborating a research program titled “Deukalion”, in which we already have developed a fully-equipped monitoring network, extending over four pilot river basins. Preliminary outcomes, based on historical flood data from Cyprus and Greece, indicate that a substantial revision is required within multiple aspects of the flood modeling procedure.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1291/1/documents/FloodRecipesVolosConf2012.pdf (1465 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, From deterministic heterogeneity to stochastic homogeneity, IAHS 90th Anniversary – PUB Symposium 2012, Delft, The Netherlands, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34759.50085, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012.
Heterogeneity is the rule in natural systems. Their parts are typically dissimilar in geometry, composition, and physical and chemical properties. Even very small natural objects may be unique; for example, it is well known that no two snowflakes are alike. Therefore, even at the tiniest scales, the typical modelling assumption that parts of the system (e.g. grid cells) have homogeneous properties does not correspond to reality and therefore entails a modelling error. This does not mean that it is incorrect to assume homogeneity. Modelling would be infeasible without this assumption. It simply means that modelling error is inescapable and uncertainty is impossible to exterminate. Being conscious of these facts and also recognizing that there are other agents, additional to heterogeneity, which also produce errors, helps to set correct and pragmatic modelling targets. These necessarily include the quantification of heterogeneity and ultimately of uncertainty. Such quantification is more naturally dealt with in a stochastic framework. In stochastic terms, the heterogeneous details of any field can be regarded as realizations of a homogenous random filed. This enables converting a heterogeneous detailed description of a deterministic approach into a homogenous macroscopic description in stochastic terms. At the same time, the stochastic approach, instead of dealing with particular values of processes of interest (predictors and predictands), it determines their distribution functions, thus fully describing the prediction uncertainty. Two examples are provided to illustrate how deterministic heterogeneity can be alternatively described as stochastic homogeneity. The first example is about a simple classical thermodynamic system, in which theoretical deduction is possible. In this example, the probabilistic description is able to provide results in which the uncertainty at a macroscopic level is as low as the results are often misclassified as deterministic laws. The second example is related to laminar flow in pipes with spatially variable geometry (imitating a flow path in a porous medium), in which macroscopic uncertainty is always present. The simplicity of the latter example enables a comparison of two approaches, the explicit modelling of all heterogeneous details and the approach of stochastic homogeneity.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1289/1/documents/2012DeftHeterogeneity.pdf (1395 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Vít Klemeš: Lessons of vitality, 3rd STAHY International Workshop on Statistical Methods for Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Tunis, Tunisia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25532.03204, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1281/1/documents/2012STAHY_TunisKlemes.pdf (2271 KB)
Additional material:
Y. Markonis, P. Kossieris, A. Lykou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Effects of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age on the hydrology of Mediterranean region, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 12181, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30565.19683, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
Medieval Warm Period (950 – 1250) and Little Ice Age (1450 – 1850) are the most recent periods that reflect the magnitude of natural climate variability. As their names suggest, the first one was characterized by higher temperatures and a generally moister climate, while the opposite happened during the second period. Although their existence is well documented for Northern Europe and North America, recent findings suggest strong evidence in lower latitudes as well. Here we analyze qualitatively the influence of these climatic fluctuations on the hydro-logical cycle all over the Mediterranean basin, highlighting the spatial characteristics of precipitation and runoff. We use both qualitative estimates from literature review in the field of paleoclimatology and statistical analysis of proxy data series. We investigate possible regional patterns and possible tele-connections with large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Siberian High, African Sahel Rainfall and Indian Monsoon.
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E. Steirou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of methods for hydroclimatic data homogenization, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 956-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23854.31046, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
We investigate the methods used for the adjustment of inhomogeneities of temperature time series covering the last 100 years. Based on a systematic study of scientific literature, we classify and evaluate the observed inhomogeneities in historical and modern time series, as well as their adjustment methods. It turns out that these methods are mainly statistical, not well justified by experiments and are rarely supported by metadata. In many of the cases studied the proposed corrections are not even statistically significant.
From the global database GHCN-Monthly Version 2, we examine all stations containing both raw and adjusted data that satisfy certain criteria of continuity and distribution over the globe. In the United States of America, because of the large number of available stations, stations were chosen after a suitable sampling. In total we analyzed 181 stations globally. For these stations we calculated the differences between the adjusted and non-adjusted linear 100-year trends. It was found that in the two thirds of the cases, the homogenization procedure increased the positive or decreased the negative temperature trends.
One of the most common homogenization methods, ‘SNHT for single shifts’, was applied to synthetic time series with selected statistical characteristics, occasionally with offsets. The method was satisfactory when applied to independent data normally distributed, but not in data with long-term persistence.
The above results cast some doubts in the use of homogenization procedures and tend to indicate that the global temperature increase during the last century is between 0.4°C and 0.7°C, where these two values are the estimates derived from raw and adjusted data, respectively.
Remarks:
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Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during July-September 2012
Koutsoyiannis: temperature rise probably smaller than 0.8°C (De staat van het klimaat)
New paper finds global warming over past century was only about half of IPCC claims (The Hockey Schtick)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (Watts Up With That?)
Investigation of methods for hydroclimatic data homogenization (Variable Variability)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (2) (siliconinvestor)
New Paper Blames About Half Of Global Warming On Weather Station Data Homogenization (3) (Wopular)
Station Homogenization as a Statistical Procedure (Climate Audit)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homgenization | Watts Up With That? (TOM NELSON)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (4) (freak-search)
Ny rapport visar grova överskattningar i temperaturdatan (klimatbluffen)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (5) (FREAG-NET)
Global Warming Science Facts: Study Confirms 50% of Warming Is Fake - IPCC Failed To Account For (C3 Headlines)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization | Watts Up With That? (2) (the daily dan)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (6) (British Democracy Forum)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (7) (The American Resolution)
`Do you think half of the Global Warming observed so far is caused by data `_ (`Answersden`_)
Half Of "Observed" Global Warming Caused By Data Mishandling (The Pajamahadin)
New study shows that 50% of warming claimed by IPCC is fake (The Voice of Tucson)
Soliti chiodi nella bara del Risglob (cont.) (Ocasapiens di ocasapiens)
No catastrophic warming, no “consensus” … no worries? [updated] (Not PC. . . promoting capitalist acts between consenting adults.)
Germany's Green Energy Panic: Government Fears Voter Anger About Electricity Prices Explosion (Climate change Dispatch)
Global warming over past century was half of IPCC claims (The NO CARBON TAX Climate Sceptics)
Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (TOM NELSON)
David Whitehouse: Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (Climate Realists)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (8) (The GOLDEN RULE)
Climate Clips from CCNet (no eco twaddle- or other false policy (n.e.t))
Proof that Global Warming is man-made (2) (before it's news)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization (10) (Wott's Up With That?)
David Whitehouse: Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (2) (JunkScience.com)
Recent findings: Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (GREENIE WATCH)
Recent findings: Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (2) (DelphiForums)
New paper blames about half of global warming on weather station data homogenization | Watts Up With That? (3) (Newsvine mobile)
Recent findings: Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (3) (`De Groene Rekenkamer `_)
Blog discussions, conference presentations and peer review (De staat van het klimaat)
More on Koutsoyiannis and the homogenization of temperature data – plus some comments on blog review (Watts Up With That?)
Smaller 20th Century Warming: Hotter Medieval Warm Period (4) (ICECAP)
Mark Landsbaum: Now for some good news (The Orange County Register)
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY BAD NEIGHBORS? (One Citizen Speaking)
Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup (Watts Up With That?)
Investigation of methods for hydroclimatic data homogenization? (Stoat)
Investigation of methods for hydroclimatic data homogenization? [Stoat] (Dennis Flint)
Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup (2) (Watts Up With That?)
Science & Environmental Policy Project – TWTW August 11, 2012 (Third Millennium Times)
Update on the Latest Climate Change Science and Local Adaptation Measures (Climate Change Dispatch)
A Different Take on the “Hottest Month on Record” (Debunk House)
A Different Take on the “Hottest Month on Record” (2) (Watts Up With That?)
Man-Caused Global Warming Myth (Strong As An Ox And Nearly As Smart)
Article Inflation: Wattsupwiththat? (THINK ABOUT IT-Climate Change)
Climate Skeptic Article Inflation: Wattsupwiththat? (J.C. Moore Online)
Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during July-September 2012:
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23854.31046
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Stockwell, D. R.B., Is temperature or the temperature record rising?, Australian Environment Foundation Conference, Sydney, Australia, 2012. |
| 2. | Fleming, S. W., A non-uniqueness problem in the identification of power-law spectral scaling for hydroclimatic time series, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 73–84, 2014. |
S. Giannoulis, C. Ioannou, E. Karantinos, L. Malatesta, G. Theodoropoulos, G. Tsekouras, A. Venediki, P. Dimitriadis, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Long term properties of monthly atmospheric pressure fields, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 4680, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36017.79201, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
We assess the statistical properties of atmospheric pressure time series retrieved from a large database of monthly records. We analyze the short and long term properties of the time series including possible trends, persistence and antipersistence. We also analyze times series of climatic indices which are based on the atmospheric pressure fields, such as the North Atlantic oscillation index and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index.
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Additional material:
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A global survey on the distribution of annual maxima of daily rainfall: Gumbel or Fréchet?, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 10563, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29306.90566, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
Theoretically, if the distribution of daily rainfall is known, or, assumed with confidence, then one could argue, based on extreme value theory, that the distribution of the daily annual maxima would resemble one of the three limiting types: (a) type I, known as Gumbel, type II, known as Fréchet and, type III, known as reversed Weibull. Yet, the parent distribution usually is not known and many times only records of annual maxima are available. So, the question that naturally arises is which one of the three types better describes the annual maxima of daily rainfall. The question is of great importance as the naive adoption of a particular type may lead to serious underestimation or overestimation of the rainfall amount assigned to specific return period. To answer this equation, we analyse 15137 records of annual maxima of daily rainfall, from all over the world, with lengths varying for 40 to 163 years. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, as it comprises the three limiting types as particular cases for specific values of its shape parameter, and we analyse the results focusing on the estimated shape parameter values. Finally, we investigate the relationship of the GEV shape parameter with record length and we construct a global map form its values to reveal possible geographical patterns.
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E. Houdalaki, M. Basta, N. Boboti, N. Bountas, E. Dodoula, T. Iliopoulou, S. Ioannidou, K. Kassas, S. Nerantzaki, E. Papatriantafyllou, K. Tettas, D. Tsirantonaki, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On statistical biases and their common neglect, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 4388, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25951.46248, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
The study of natural phenomena such as hydroclimatic processes demands the use of stochastic tools and the good understanding thereof. However, common statistical practices are often based on classical statistics, which assumes independent identically distributed variables with Gaussian distributions. However, in most cases geophysical processes exhibit temporal dependence and even long term persistence. Also, some statistical estimators for nonnegative random variables have distributions radically different from Gaussian. We demonstrate the impact of neglecting dependence and non-normality in parameter estimators and how this can result in misleading conclusions and futile predictions. To accomplish that, we use synthetic examples derived by Monte Carlo techniques and we also provide a number of examples of misuse.
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Additional material:
H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A Bayesian approach to hydroclimatic prognosis using the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24273.74089, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
It has now been well recognized that hydrological processes exhibit a scaling behaviour, also known as the Hurst phenomenon. An appropriate way to model this behaviour is to use the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process. This process is associated with large scale fluctuations and also enhanced uncertainty in the parameter estimation. When we have to make a prognosis for the future evolution of the process, the total uncertainty must be evaluated. The proper technique to do this is provided by Bayesian methods. We develop a Bayesian framework with Monte Carlo implementation for the uncertainty estimation of future prognoses assuming a Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process with a non-informative prior distribution of parameters. We derive the posterior distribution of the parameters and use it to make inference for future hydroclimatic variables.
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S. Kozanis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, G. Karavokiros, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Nikolopoulos, Using open source software for the supervision and management of the water resources system of Athens, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 7158, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28468.04482, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
The water supply of Athens, Greece, is implemented through a complex water resource system, extending over an area of around 4 000 km2 and including surface water and groundwater resources. It incorporates four reservoirs, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations, more than 100 boreholes and 5 small hydropower plants. The system is run by the Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP). Over more than 10 years we have developed, information technology tools such as GIS, database and decision support systems, to assist the management of the system. Among the software components, “Enhydris”, a web application for the visualization and management of geographical and hydrometeorological data, and “Hydrognomon”, a data analysis and processing tool, are now free software. Enhydris is entirely based on free software technologies such as Python, Django, PostgreSQL, and JQuery. We also created http://openmeteo.org/, a web site hosting our free software products as well as a free database system devoted to the dissemination of free data. In particular, “Enhydris” is used for the management of the hydrometeorological stations and the major hydraulic structures (aqueducts, reservoirs, boreholes, etc.), as well as for the retrieval of time series, online graphs etc. For the specific needs of EYDAP, additional GIS functionality was introduced for the display and monitoring of the water supply network. This functionality is also implemented as free software and can be reused in similar projects. Except for “Hydrognomon” and “Enhydris”, we have developed a number of advanced modeling applications, which are also generic-purpose tools that have been used for a long time to provide decision support for the water resource system of Athens. These are “Hydronomeas”, which optimizes the operation of complex water resource systems, based on a stochastic simulation framework, “Castalia”, which implements the generation of synthetic time series, and “Hydrogeios”, which employs conjunctive hydrological and hydrogeological simulation, with emphasis to human-modified river basins. These tools are currently available as executable files that are free for download though the ITIA web site (http://itia.ntua.gr/). Currently, we are working towards releasing their source code as well, through making them free software, after some licensing issues are resolved.
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Additional material:
P. Kossieris, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, H. Tyralis, and A. Efstratiadis, HyetosR: An R package for temporal stochastic simulation of rainfall at fine time scales, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 11718, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
A complete software package for the temporal stochastic simulation of rainfall process at fine time scales is developed in the R programming environment. This includes several functions for sequential simulation or disaggregation. Specifically, it uses the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses rainfall model for rainfall generation and proven disaggregation techniques which adjust the finer scale (hourly) values in order to obtain the required coarser scale (daily) value, without affecting the stochastic structure implied by the model. Additionally, a repetition scheme is incorporated in order to improve the Bartlett-Lewis model performance without significant increase of computational time. Finally, the package includes an enhanced version of the evolutionary annealing-simplex optimization method for the estimation of Bartlett-Lewis parameters. Multiple calibration criteria are introduced, in order to reproduce the statistical characteristics of rainfall at various time scales. This upgraded version of the original HYETOS program (Koutsoyiannis, D., and Onof C., A computer program for temporal stochastic disaggregation using adjusting procedures, European Geophysical Society, 2000) operates on several modes and combinations thereof (depending on data availability), with many options and graphical capabilities. The package, under the name HyetosR, is available free in the CRAN package repository.
Remarks:
Software page: http://itia.ntua.gr/en/softinfo/3/
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Montesarchio, V., F. Napolitano, E. Ridolfi and L. Ubertini, A comparison of two rainfall disaggregation models, In Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2012: International Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics, AIP Conference Proceedings, Vol. 1479, 1796-1799, 2012. |
| 2. | #Villani, V., L. Cattaneo, A. L. Zollo, and P. Mercogliano, Climate data processing with GIS support: Description of bias correction and temporal downscaling tools implemented in Clime software, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (RMCC) Research Papers, RP0262, 2015. |
| 3. | Förster, K., F. Hanzer, B. Winter, T. Marke, and U. Strasser, An open-source MEteoroLOgical observation time series DISaggregation Tool (MELODIST v0.1.1), Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 2315-2333, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2315-2016, 2016. |
| 4. | Devkota, S., N. M. Shakya, K. Sudmeier-Rieux, M. Jaboyedoff, C. J. Van Westen, B. G. Mcadoo, and A. Adhikari, Development of monsoonal rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship and empirical model for data-scarce situations: The case of the Central-Western Hills (Panchase Region) of Nepal, Hydrology, 5(2), 27, doi:10.3390/hydrology5020027, 2018. |
| 5. | Cordeiro, M. R. C., J. A. Vanrobaeys, and H. F. Wilson, Long-term weather, streamflow, and water chemistry datasets for hydrological modelling applications at the upper La Salle River watershed in Manitoba, Canada, 6(1), 41-57, Geoscience Data Journal, doi:10.1002/gdj3.67, 2019. |
| 6. | #Thomson, H., and L. Chandler, Tailings storage facility landform evolution modelling, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Mine Closure, A. B. Fourie & M. Tibbett (eds.), Australian Centre for Geomechanics, Perth, 385-396, 2019. |
| 7. | Sun, Y., D. Wendi, D. E., Kim, and S.-Y. Liong, Deriving intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves using downscaled in situ rainfall assimilated with remote sensing data, Geoscience Letters, 6(17), doi:10.1186/s40562-019-0147-x, 2019. |
| 8. | Oruc, S., I. Yücel, and A. Yılmaz, Investigation of the effect of climate change on extreme precipitation: Capital Ankara case, Teknik Dergi, 33(2), doi:10.18400/tekderg.714980, 2021. |
| 9. | Hayder, A. M., and M. Al-Mukhtar, Modelling the IDF curves using the temporal stochastic disaggregation BLRP model for precipitation data in Najaf City, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14, 1957, doi:10.1007/s12517-021-08314-6, 2021. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A Monte Carlo approach to water management (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 3509, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20079.43687, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
Common methods for making optimal decisions in water management problems are insufficient. Linear programming methods are inappropriate because hydrosystems are nonlinear with respect to their dynamics, operation constraints and objectives. Dynamic programming methods are inappropriate because water management problems cannot be divided into sequential stages. Also, these deterministic methods cannot properly deal with the uncertainty of future conditions (inflows, demands, etc.). Even stochastic extensions of these methods (e.g. linear-quadratic-Gaussian control) necessitate such drastic oversimplifications of hydrosystems that may make the obtained results irrelevant to the real world problems. However, a Monte Carlo approach is feasible and can form a general methodology applicable to any type of hydrosystem. This methodology uses stochastic simulation to generate system inputs, either unconditional or conditioned on a prediction, if available, and represents the operation of the entire system through a simulation model as faithful as possible, without demanding a specific mathematical form that would imply oversimplifications. Such representation fully respects the physical constraints, while at the same time it evaluates the system operation constraints and objectives in probabilistic terms, and derives their distribution functions and statistics through Monte Carlo simulation. As the performance criteria of a hydrosystem operation will generally be highly nonlinear and highly nonconvex functions of the control variables, a second Monte Carlo procedure, implementing stochastic optimization, is necessary to optimize system performance and evaluate the control variables of the system. The latter is facilitated if the entire representation is parsimonious, i.e. if the number of control variables is kept at a minimum by involving a suitable system parameterization. The approach is illustrated through three examples for (a) a hypothetical system of two reservoirs performing a variety of functions, (b) the water resource system of Athens comprising four reservoirs and many aqueducts, and (c) a human-modified inadequately measured basin in which the parameter fitting of a hydrological model is sought.
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P. Dimitriadis, P. Papanicolaou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics applied to temperature fields for small turbulence scales, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-772, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22137.26724, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Two-dimensional (2D) spatio-temporal temperature records obtained from tracer concentration measurements on the plane of symmetry of heated jets (small turbulence scale) are statistically analyzed and the presence of Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics is detected. The 2D HK process is then fitted to the data and synthetic time-varying and/or spatial fields are generated for temperature, which are consistent with the observed. Moreover, the 2D HK process is formulated assuming anisotropy, so as to take into account possibly different autocorrelation decay rates (Hurst coefficients) in each dimension of the field. In addition, the results are also investigated in comparison with Kolmogorov’s power spectrum model K41.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.22137.26724
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Deskos, G. B., P. G. Dimitriadis and P. N. Papanicolaou, Density stratification in the mixed regime of a buoyant jet in confined ambient, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 200-211, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, and K. Tzouka, Multidimensional Hurst-Kolmogorov process for modelling temperature and rainfall fields, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-739, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12070.93761, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
A multidimensional (MD) stochastic simulation model is presented, which is a direct extension of the 1D simple scaling process, known as Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) process following the analysis of the 2D extension of Koutsoyiannis et al. (2011). The MD HK process can generate time-varying spatial geophysical fields (such as rainfall and temperature), consistent with the observed long-term spatiotemporal persistence (slowly decaying autocorrelation over spatial or temporal displacement). The MD HK process is formulated assuming anisotropy, so as to take into account possibly different autocorrelation decay rates (Hurst coefficients) in each dimension of the field. The MD HK process is also investigated through some applications based on observed temperature and rainfall fields.
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Y. Dialynas, S. Kozanis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A computer system for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly into daily hydrological time series as part of a three–level multivariate scheme, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-290, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23814.98885, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Castalia is a software package (Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Efstratiadis, A stochastic hydrology framework for the management of multiple reservoir systems, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 3, European Geophysical Society, 2001) that uses an original two-level multivariate scheme (from annual to monthly time scale) appropriate for preserving the most important statistics of the historical time series and reproducing characteristic peculiarities of hydrological processes such as long-term persistence, periodicity and skewness. A module was developed as an expansion of Castalia, which implements a methodology for the multivariate stochastic simulation and disaggregation of monthly hydrological time series into daily series. This upgraded version of Castalia uses a three-level multivariate scheme that simultaneously preserves the above characteristics for the annual, monthly and daily time scale. Moreover, this module efficiently handles additional difficulties due to peculiarities which frequently appear in daily hydrological series, such as high variation coefficients, high values of skewness and intermittency (preservation of probability dry in rainfall). The computer system was applied for the generation of synthetic hydrological time series within simulation models that are components of a decision support system for hydrosystem management.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A hymn to entropy (Invited talk), IUGG 2011, Melbourne, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36607.61601, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2011.
While entropy, and in particular its tendency to become maximum, is typically regarded as a curse, I contend that it is an eulogia. Not only does it offer the basis to understand and describe Nature, but it also constitutes the driving force of change and evolution. Entropy is a measure of uncertainty, defined within probability theory, and its maximization offers a powerful principle, applicable to both description of physical systems and logical inference. In thermodynamics dealing with the equilibrium state of systems with hugely many components (molecules) identical to each other or belonging to a few kinds, application of the principle of maximum entropy results in macroscopic certainties. These are, au fond, statistical laws based on maximization of uncertainty at the microscopic level, yet yielding extremely low macroscopic uncertainty, so low that we often misinterpret the laws as deterministic. However, the formation of clouds and the precipitation cannot be described in terms of systems with identical elements. Furthermore, the flow of water on Earth and its spatial and temporal variability are even more difficult to model because the relevant systems (catchments, rivers, aquifers) are composed of extremely diverse elements. In the last decades, the dominant target and aspiration in hydrological sciences has been the radical reduction of uncertainty. I contend that this aspiration traces a research direction that is wrong and opposite to how Nature works. In contrast, a promising path to faithfully model hydrological processes and systems should be sought in extremization of entropy (i.e. uncertainty).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1136/1/documents/2011IUGG_HymnToEntropy.pdf (2006 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology and Change (Plenary lecture), IUGG 2011, Melbourne, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3685.6568, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 2011.
Since “panta rhei” was pronounced by Heraclitus, hydrology and its objects, such as rivers and lakes, offer grounds to observe and understand change and flux. Change occurs at all time scales, from minute to geological, but our limited senses and life span, along with the short time frame of instrumental observations, restrict our perception to the most apparent daily to yearly variations. As a result, our typical modelling practices assume that natural changes are a short-term “noise” superimposed to the daily and annual cycles in a scene that, in the long run, is static and invariant. Hydrologist H. E. Hurst, studying the long flow records of the Nile and other geophysical time series, was the first to observe a natural behaviour related to multi-scale change and to study its implications in engineering designs. This behaviour, in which long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived, makes prediction of future states much more difficult and uncertain, particularly for long time horizons, than commonly thought. Surprisingly, however, the implications of multi-scale change have not been assimilated in geophysical sciences, as reflected by a vocabulary in which change is identified with “noise”, and a perception that only an exceptional and extraordinary forcing can produce a long-term change. A change of perspective is thus needed, which should depart from the 19th-century myths of static systems, deterministic predictability and elimination of uncertainty, and should move toward a new understanding and modelling of natural processes, in which change and uncertainty are essential parts.
Remarks:
Please visit/cite the peer-reviewed version of this article:
Koutsoyiannis, D., Hydrology and Change, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1177–1197, 2013.
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G. Di Baldassarre, A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, D. Koutsoyiannis, L. Brandimarte, and G. Blöschl, Increasing flood risk in Africa: a climate signal?, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-5634-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26541.28648, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
The economic damages caused by floods, as well as the number of people killed by them has substantially increased in recent decades on the African continent. The number of flood fatalities, in particular, has increased about one order of magnitude during the last 50 years. These figures call for urgent actions to reduce damages and casualties. To plan these actions, we first need to understand the reasons why flood risk has increased so dramatically in Africa. Flood risk can be defined as a combination of the flood probability and the potential adverse consequences. Hence, we investigated both the climatic signatures that may have increased flood probability, as well as the population changes that may have led to increased human vulnerability to extreme floods. Given the global perception that the severity and frequency of floods has increased in recent years, we examined if these perceived trends are supported by observational data collected in Africa. In particular, we investigated trends in annual maximum discharge using a large, consistent and quality-assured database from 79 gauging stations in Africa. The related African river basins remain largely undisturbed and are representative of diverse hydro-climatic conditions. Hence, changes in their hydrological response may provide relevant information for detecting spatially and temporally averaged climatic conditions. Based on the results of both continental and at-site data analyses, we found that the frequency and magnitude of African floods have not significantly increased during the Twentieth Century, and that climate, overall, has not been a main factor in the observed increase of flood damages. Having detected no significant climate signals, the study focused on flood vulnerability. The African continent, as well as many other areas around the world, has undergone widespread and intensive urbanization. During the last 50 years, while the total population has increased by a factor of 4, the urban population in Africa has increased by one order of magnitude; approximately the same as the increase of fatalities caused by floods. The study of population patterns at the continental scale showed that most of the recent deadly floods have happened where the population increases have been largest. At the local scale, we found numerous examples of increased human settlements in flood prone areas. These results provide demonstrable evidence that intensive and unplanned urbanization, and the related population increase on floodplains has led to an increase in the potential adverse consequences of floods; particularly of the most serious and irreversible type of consequence, namely the loss of human lives.
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F. Lombardo, E. Volpi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Theoretical and empirical comparison of stochastic disaggregation and downscaling approaches for rainfall time series, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-854-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31574.45124, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
High-resolution rainfall time series are usually crucial for many hydrological applications, but the majority of historical datasets available has daily resolution, which is often too coarse. Therefore, for the last three decades a large amount of literature has been dealing with the problem of generating rainfall sequences at the timescale of interest given the observed data at a lower resolution. In this work, we focus on existing downscaling and disaggregation approaches with two different structures: one characterized by power-law correlations which account for long-term persistence of rainfall (as in the fractional Gaussian noise or Hurst-Kolmogorov model) and the other characterized by a multifractal structure. The two approaches are analysed and compared in terms of their capability of reproducing the statistical behaviour of a high density (and high-resolution) raingauge network covering the urban area of Rome.
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D. Tsaknias, D. Bouziotas, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistical comparison of observed temperature and rainfall extremes with climate model outputs, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-3454, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15321.52322, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Climate model outputs have widely been used to support decision making for social and financial policies, with special focus on extreme events. Moreover, it is a general perception that extreme events will be more frequent in the future. To evaluate whether climate models provide a credible basis for predictions of extremes, we study their ability to reproduce annual extreme values of daily temperature and precipitation. The results from climate models are compared to observed data from stations in the Mediterranean. Furthermore, we fit probability distributions which describe the extreme events in both cases and compare the results.
Remarks:
Related blog posts and discussions: De staat van het klimaat, Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr..
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A. Christofides, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Causality in climate and hydrology, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-7440, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33776.46082, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
We often see statements such as “90% of climate change is caused by X” and debates on whether the dominant cause of climate change is human activity, or the sun, or something else. However, in chaotic systems, it can be difficult to defend the meaning of such assertions, because if the “effect” occurs sufficiently later than the supposed “cause”, the relationship between the two is effectively lost because of the sensitivity of the “effect” to the initial conditions. In fact, although “A causes B” initially seems clear, closer examination of what it actually means reveals problems that have tortured philosophers for centuries. We review the meaning of causation in the context of hydroclimatology as well as its possible reformulation in probabilistic terms.
Remarks:
Related blog posts and discussions can be seen in Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr., Bishop Hill, PlazaMoyua.org, Climate Etc.: Judith Curry.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1130/1/documents/causality_4.pdf (136 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33776.46082
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Ward, J. D., A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham, The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1879-1893, 2011. |
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A worldwide probabilistic analysis of rainfall at multiple timescales based on entropy maximization, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-11557, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20354.68800, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Rainfall, as a continuous time process, is useful to study in a multitude of time scales, although limitations are often imposed for the finest scales due to the rainfall recording apparatus. Practically, in hydraulic design, rainfall is studied at timescales ranging from a few minutes to a few days but coarser scales up to annual and beyond are also of interest in hydroclimatological studies. The ombrian curves (else known as intensity-duration-frequency curves) constitute a popular, usually empirical, hydraulic design tool. Essentially ombrian curves are just probabilistic expressions of rainfall intensity at multiple timescales. It seems that all those empirical or semi-empirical methods have prevailed in practice due to the lack of a unique theoretically consistent model able to describe rainfall intensity at multiple timescales. For example, in the literature many different probability models haven been proposed for specific timescales also varying with the location. Here we address the question if a single model exists able to describe rainfall at multiple timescales in virtually all areas of the world. To answer this question, we use as a theoretical background some new results regarding entropy maximizing distributions and a very large database of rainfall records. We assess the ability of the theoretically derived entropic models to describe rainfall at multiple timescales by comparing the shape characteristics between the model and the empirical samples.
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D. Bouziotas, G. Deskos, N. Mastrantonas, D. Tsaknias, G. Vangelidis, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Long-term properties of annual maximum daily river discharge worldwide, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-1439, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13643.80164, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
We use a database of annual maximum daily discharge time series (World Catalogue of Maximum Observed Floods, IAHS Press, 2003) and extract those with length greater than 50 years. We analyse extreme floods at several stations worldwide focusing on their long-term properties of the time series including trends and persistence (else known as Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics), which characterizes the temporal streamflow variability across several time scales. The analysis allows drawing conclusions, which have some importance, given the ongoing and intensifying discussions about worsening of climate and amplification of extreme phenomena.
Remarks:
Related blog posts and discussions: Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog, Watts Up With That?, Watts Up With That? (2), De staat van het klimaat, Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr., C3 Headlines, GlobalWarming.org, JunkScience Sidebar, SFTor, Open Your Eyes News, Climate Change Reconsidered, Climate etc., The Daily Caller, Keskisuomalainen.
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Additional material:
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy maximization, p-moments and power-type distributions in nature, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-6884, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16999.24484, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Choosing a proper probabilistic model for geophysical processes is not a trivial task. The common practice of choosing one of a few popular (among infinitely many) distributions is subjective and relies too much on empirical considerations e.g., the summary statistics of the data record. In contrast, the principle of maximum entropy offers a robust theoretical basis in selecting a distribution law, based on deduction rather than on trial-and-error procedures. Yet, the resulting maximum entropy distribution is not unique as it depends on the entropic form maximized and the constraints imposed. Here we use the Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy and we propose a rationale for defining and selecting constraints. We suggest simple and general constrains that are suitable for positive, highly varying and asymmetric random variables, and lead to distributions consistent with geophysical processes. We define a generalization of the classical moments (the p-moments) which naturally leads to power-type distributions avoiding the use of generalized entropic measures.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16999.24484
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Wilk, G., and Z. Włodarczyk, Quasi-power law ensembles, Acta Physica Polonica B, 46 (6), 1103-1122, 2015. |
| 2. | Wilk, G., and Z. Włodarczyk, Quasi-power laws in multiparticle production processes, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.04.016, 2015. |
Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics in long climatic proxy records, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-13700, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23080.98565, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Orbital climate theory states that the variations in insolation caused by changes in the shape of the earth’s orbit (eccentricity of ellipse), tilt of the earth’s axis (obliquity) and precession of the equinoxes are linked with large-scale climate variations. However, there is an on-going debate about the qualitative characteristics that describe the driving force of large scale climate dynamics (linear vs. nonlinear, insolation vs. obliquity forcing), that extends to a greater disagreement about the overall appropriateness of deterministic or stochastic descriptions of glacial cycles. Through this scientific discussion some concepts are widely used by all sides, including threshold mechanisms, state transition and multi-scale fluctuations, which are characteristics that can be associated with a power-law stochastic dependence. Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) dynamics is a characteristic model that results in power-law dependence. Here we show that HK dynamics combined with components of orbital forcing is consistent with several proxy climatic time series spanning periods up to 500 million years before present.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Kozanis, and H. Tyralis, A general Monte Carlo method for the construction of confidence intervals for a function of probability distribution parameters, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-1489, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33147.31527, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
We derive an algorithm which calculates an exact confidence interval for a distributional parameter of location or scale family, based on a two-sided hypothesis test on the parameter of interest, using some pivotal quantities. We use this algorithm to calculate approximate confidence intervals for the parameter or a function of the parameter of one-parameter distributions. We show that these approximate intervals are asymptotically exact. We modify the algorithm and use it to obtain approximate confidence intervals for a parameter or a function of parameters for multi-parameter distributions. We compare the results of the method with those obtained by known methods of the literature for the normal, the gamma and the Weibull distribution and find them satisfactory. We conclude that the proposed method can yield approximate confidence intervals, based on Monte Carlo simulations, in a generic way, irrespectively of the distribution function, as well as of the type of the parameters or the function of parameters.
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S.M. Papalexiou, E. Kallitsi, E. Steirou, M. Xirouchakis, A. Drosou, V. Mathios, H. Adraktas-Rentis, I. Kyprianou, M.-A. Vasilaki, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Long-term properties of annual maximum daily rainfall worldwide, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-1444, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13014.65600, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
From a large data base of daily rainfall, several thousands of time series of annual maxima are extracted, each one having at least 100 years of data values. These time series are analyzed focusing on their long-term properties including persistence and trends. The results are grouped by continent and time period. They allow drawing conclusions, which have some importance, given the ongoing and intensifying discussions about worsening of climate and amplification of extreme phenomena.
Remarks:
Related blog posts and discussions: De staat van het klimaat, Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr..
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Additional material:
E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Benefits from using Kalman filter in forward and inverse groundwater modelling, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-2212, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28114.15040, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
In groundwater applications, Kalman filter has been applied in both forward and inverse modelling. The use of Kalman filter in inverse modelling can be direct or indirect. In the direct inverse modelling, the filter automatically calibrates the model parameters based on the deviation of the measurements from the current state estimates. In the indirect inverse modelling, estimates of the model parameters are obtained by an off-line procedure (an independent optimization algorithm) that involves minimization of the differences between actual head measurements and those predicted from the filter (a.k.a. Kalman filter innovations). In this study we investigate the effects of the Kalman filter parameters on the efficiency of the filter, concerning its application in both forward and inverse modelling.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28114.15040
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Chang, S.-Y., and S. Latif, Use of Kalman filtering and particle filtering in a benzene leachate transport model, Study of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 2 (3), 49-60, 2013. |
A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic physically-based modelling in hydrology: towards a synthesis of different approaches for a new target, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-11775, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35663.89763, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Stochastic physically-based modelling is a classical concept that seems to have been forgotten by hydrologists. In fact, in recent years there has been an increasing focus on deterministic physically-based modelling (often briefly called physically-based modelling) of hydrological systems, with the aim to pursue a deterministic representation of the involved processes. We argue that stochastic physically-based modelling should be re-discovered. In fact, it is a powerful means to effectively synthesize our knowledge and understanding of natural systems within a framework that takes into account the unavoidable and inherent uncertainty, thereby synthesizing hydrological modelling and uncertainty assessment. Another reason favouring this re-discovery is the present availability of computing power, which makes the stochastic representation of complex models a feasible option. We present a modelling framework where physical information is fully incorporated in a stochastic approach, thereby taking full advantage of the available knowledge while accounting for, and quantifying, the related uncertainty. Within this view, stochastic and deterministic representations are not antitethic but rather complementary and can be synthesized in a stochastic physically-based approach. Input and output variables can be provided in the form of probability distributions, if they are uncertain, and the hydrological model can be incorporated in the form of probabilistic equations. The resulting approach is not much different to what hydrologists are already used to apply, and allows one synthesizing the results of the recent literature on deterministic, physically-based, modelling and uncertainty assessment. We present applications to synthetic and real world case studies and discuss the appropriateness of the underlying assumptions.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Scaling as enhanced uncertainty, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, Vienna, EGU2011-1305, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15531.23844, European Geosciences Union, 2011.
Scaling behaviours have been detected in many geophysical processes and are typically represented as power laws of different statistical properties such as distribution tails, autocorrelograms, periodograms and climacograms. The independent variables in such power laws could be different quantities such as random variates (representing states of a system), temporal scale, spatial scale, frequency, or time lag. These delineate different (albeit often confused) types of scaling, i.e. scaling in state, time and space. The power laws are applicable either on the entire domain of the variable of interest or asymptotically. Clearly, power laws contrast exponential laws. The omnipresence of scaling behaviours has been often regarded as a mystery and has been interpreted by analogous ways, e.g. by invoking a “self-organizing” power of natural systems (cf. “self-organized criticalities”). In another view, these behaviours are just manifestations of enhanced uncertainty and are consistent with the principle of maximum entropy, which notably is the basis of the second law of thermodynamics. Depending on the type of scaling, the enhanced uncertainty manifests itself in the frequency of extreme events, as well as in the variability of a process at aggregated scales, spatial or temporal (e.g. in climate). The enhanced uncertainty also applies to statistical estimation from available records and to statistical prediction—but this is often missed in the literature. A few examples demonstrate, on the one hand, the emergence of scaling from maximum entropy considerations and, on the other hand, the enhancement of uncertainty in estimation and prediction due to scaling.
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A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Is deterministic physically-based hydrological modeling a feasible target? Incorporating physical knowledge in stochastic modeling of uncertain systems, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, San Francisco, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18886.68164, American Geophysical Union, 2010.
In recent years there has been an increasing focus on deterministic physically-based modeling (more often called simply physically-based modeling) of hydrological systems, with the aim to pursue a deterministic representation of the involved processes. We argue that fully deterministic physically-based hydrological modeling is not a feasible target, at least for the inherent uncertainty (also called natural variability) affecting input and output variables as well as the complex geometry of control volumes and boundaries of hydrological processes. We believe that such uncertainty calls for a stochastic representation, allowing one to estimate at the same time hydrological variables and the related, unavoidable, uncertainty. On the other hand, deterministic concepts and relationships between processes provide valuable information that must be taken into account to reduce epistemic uncertainty. We present a modeling framework where physical information is fully incorporated in a stochastic approach, thereby allowing one to take full advantage of the available knowledge while accounting for, and quantifying, the related uncertainty. Within this view, stochastic and deterministic representations are not antitethic but rather complementary and can be combined in a stochastic physically-based approach. Input and output variables can be provided in the form of probability distributions, if they are uncertain, and the hydrological model is incorporated in the form of analytical probabilistic equations. The resulting approach is not much different to what hydrologists are already used to apply, and allows one to integrate the results of the recent literature on deterministic, physically-based, modeling and uncertainty assessment.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1100/1/documents/2010AGU_StochasticPhysicsBasedModel.pdf (454 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Scale of water resources development and sustainability: Small is beautiful, large is great (Invited), LATSIS Symposium 2010: Ecohydrology, Lausanne, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20564.40320, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 2010.
In our postmodern culture, political correctness, in which “green” political views dominate, has become a euphemism, if not a synonym of irrationality. Engineering means for the development of water resources and prevention of flood disasters have been severely criticized as “offensive” to the environment and damaging to ecosystems—as if people did not matter and their habitats were not part of the ecosystems. In particular, large scale projects such as dams, large hydropower projects, interbasin water transfer projects and irrigation systems are regarded as evil constructions and are virtually prohibited in many countries, including most of Europe. Only small-scale constructions, such as small hydropower projects and waters tanks, are regarded as politically correct. On the other hand, our societies supposedly seek sustainability, which includes investing in renewable energy, sufficiency of, and equity in, food and water supply, and quality of life and of the environment. These pose a dilemma on whether water resources development should be undertaken or not in areas of the world not already developed, as well as some questions about the appropriate scale of development. Some facts may help study these questions:
Based on these facts, the discussion of the questions is illustrated with some examples from the world with particular focus on Greece, whose water resources are only partly developed.
Related works:
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See also: http://latsis2010.epfl.ch/
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A world-wide investigation of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, International Precipitation Conference (IPC10), Coimbra, Portugal, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15950.66888, 2010.
Daily rainfall can be modelled as an intermittent stochastic process and consequently its marginal distribution belongs to the mixed-type family of distributions, where the discrete part defines the probability dry and the rest, continuously spread over the positive real axis, determines the wet-day rainfall distribution. While the discrete part of the rainfall marginal distribution can be easily estimated, the modelling of the continuous part involves several difficulties and uncertainties, particularly in its higher tail, which is the most interesting in engineering design. A search in the literature reveals that several distributions have been used to describe the wet-day rainfall, e.g., the two-parameter Gamma, which is the prevailing model, the two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, the Generalized Logistic, the Pearson Type III, the Pareto and the Gen¬eralized Pareto, the three- and four-parameter Kappa distributions, and many more. In this study, we use daily rainfall datasets of several thousand stations, distributed over the entire globe, and we investigate the type of the distribution tail, i.e., exponential or power type, as well as its geographical variation. Two flexible probability distributions are examined, which are derived from the entropy theory (one of exponential type and the other of power type), and include as special cases most of the well-known and commonly used distributions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1003/1/documents/2010IPC10WorldRainInvestig.pdf (2256 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, A note of caution for consistency checking and correcting methods of point precipitation records, International Precipitation Conference (IPC10), Coimbra, Portugal, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34667.75044, 2010.
Point precipitation data are routinely subject to consistency checking and adjustment of emerging inconsistencies, a process also known as data homogenization. The double mass curve is the most popular method of this type. While this is a graphical and empirical method with a high degree of subjectivity, there exist more objective and statistically sound versions. However, all versions tacitly rely on the assumption that precipitation is independent in time over long (e.g. annual) time scales. On the other hand, long precipitation time series reveal that they may exhibit long-range dependence, also known as the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) behaviour. A simulation study is performed, which shows that under HK behaviour different slopes appearing in the double mass curve are regular and do not necessarily indicate data inconsistency or inhomogeneity. Thus, application of the routine method to correct the data in fact modifies correct measurements, which are rendered inconsistent. Thus, if we hypothesize that the HK behaviour is common in precipitation, application of such methods may enormously distort correct data, based on a vicious circle logic: (a) we assume time independence of the rainfall process; (b) we interpret manifestation of dependence (the HK behaviour in particular) as incorrectness of data; (c) we modify the data so as to remove the influence of dependence; (d) we obtain series much closer to the faulty assumption of independence. The caution derived from the simulation study is that such methods should never be applied blindly. Unless information on local conditions and station archive justify that inconsistencies or errors exist, corrections of data should be avoided.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34667.75044
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Lanza, L.G., and L. Stagi, Non-parametric error distribution analysis from the laboratory calibration of various rainfall intensity gauges, Water Science and Technology, 65 (10), 1745-1752, 2012. |
Y. Markonis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Orbital climate theory and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Edinburgh, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31312.30724, International Meetings on Statistical Climatology, University of Edinburgh, 2010.
Orbital climate theory, based mainly on the work of Milankovitch, is used to explain some features of long-term climate variability, especially those concerning the ice-sheet extent. The paleoclimatic time series, which describe the climate-orbital variability relationship, exhibit Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, also known as long-term persistence. This stochastic dynamics provides an appropriate framework to explore the reliability of statistical inferences, based on such time series, about the consistency of suggestions of the modern orbital theory. Our analysis tries to shed light on some doubts raised from the contradictions between the orbital climate theory and paleoclimatic data.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Memory in climate and things not to be forgotten (Invited talk), 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Edinburgh, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17890.53445, International Meetings on Statistical Climatology, University of Edinburgh, 2010.
Forgetting some fundamental issues related to climate may have detrimental effects in its research. A first issue that need not be forgotten is the fact that the very notion of climate relies on statistics. For example, according to a popular definition (U.S. Global Change Research Program: Climate Literacy, The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 2009), climate is the long-term average of conditions in the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets and sea ice described by statistics, such as means and extremes. In turn, long-term average conditions cannot be assessed correctly if inappropriate statistical models and assumptions are used. For example, statistical methods commonly used in climate research are based on the classical statistical paradigm that assumes independence of processes in time, or on the slightly modified model of Markovian dependence. However, substantial evidence has been accumulated from long time series, observed or proxy, that climate is characterized by long-term persistence, also known as long memory or long-range dependence. Such behaviour needs to be described by processes of Hurst-Kolmogorov type, rather than by independent or Markovian processes. Consequently, it should be remembered that the Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics implies dramatically higher uncertainty of statistical parameters of location and high negative bias of statistical parameters of dispersion. It also implies change at all scales, thus contradicting the misperception of a static climate and making redundant the overly used term “climate change”. The fundamental mathematical properties of Hurst-Kolmogorov processes is another issue that must not be forgotten, in order to avoid incorrect or misleading results about climate.
Remarks:
Blog discussions of this article: Climate audit, The Climate Scam.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Some methodological issues in water resources management in the light of contemporary knowledge and needs, Rational Management of Water Basins: Towards Sustainable Development of Westen Greece, Patra, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35506.61127, University of Patra, Technical Chamber of Greece, 2010.
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S.M. Papalexiou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Mind the bias!, STAHY Official Workshop: Advances in statistical hydrology, Taormina, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12018.50883, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2010.
Most statistical procedures, including parameter estimation and hypothesis testing, are based on a tacit assumption of a statistical sample consisted of independent random variables. This is not consistent with geophysical processes, which usually exhibit a strong temporal dependence, often of long range. Such dependence implies substantial negative bias in the estimation of statistical parameters of dispersion, e.g., variance, as well as parameters of dependence, e.g., autocorrelation. Failure to account for this bias leads to distorted picture of the underlying process and results in erroneous modelling and prediction. Here we demonstrate the impact of neglecting dependence in parameter estimators by using synthetic examples from stochastic processes with sort- and long-range dependence, as well as rainfall datasets that exhibit high temporal dependence. We also propose a methodology to correctly account for the bias.
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H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Performance evaluation and interdependence of parameter estimators of the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, EGU2010-10476, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27118.00322, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
We investigate three methods for simultaneous estimation of the Hurst parameter (H) and the standard deviation (σ) for a Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic process, namely the maximum likelihood method and two methods based on the variation of the standard deviation or of the variance with time scale. We show that the simultaneous estimation of the two parameters is important, albeit not given appropriate attention in the literature, because of the interdependence of the two parameter estimators. In addition, we test the performance of the three methods for a range of sample sizes and H values, through a simulation study and we compare it with other known results for other estimators of the literature.
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Y. Dialynas, P. Kossieris, K. Kyriakidis, A. Lykou, Y. Markonis, C. Pappas, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Optimal infilling of missing values in hydrometeorological time series, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, EGU2010-9702, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23762.56005, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Being a group of undergraduate students in the National Technical University of Athens, attending the course of Stochastic Methods in Water Resources, we study, in cooperation with our tutors, the infilling of missing values of hydrometeorological time series from measurements at neighbouring times. The literature provides a plethora of methods, most of which are reduced to a linear statistical interpolating relationship. Assuming that the underlying hydrometeorological process behaves like either a Markovian or a Hurst-Kolmogorov process we estimate the missing values using two techniques, i.e., (a) a local average (with equal weights) based on the optimal number of measurements referring to a number of forward and backward time steps, and (b) a weighted average using all available data. In each of the cases we determine the unknown quantities (the required number of neighbouring values or the sequence of weights) so as to minimize the estimation mean square error. The results of this investigation are easily applicable for infilling time series in real-world applications.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23762.56005
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Rianna, M., E. Ridolfi, L. Lorino, L. Alfonso, V. Montesarchio, G. Di Baldassarre, F. Russo and F. Napolitano, Definition of homogeneous regions through entropy theory, 3rd STAHY International Workshop on Statistical Methods for Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Tunis, Tunisia, 2012. |
Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics in paleoclimate reconstructions, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, EGU2010-14816, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36555.18724, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Our understanding of the climate system is linked to our knowledge of past climate, mainly due to the role played by the variability of climate on long scales in shaping our perception of the climate system behaviour. Therefore, paleoclimate data are an important source of information, whose study should be accompanied by that of the related uncertainties, determined by an appropriate statistical framework. The Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, also known as long-term persistence, has been detected in many long hydroclimatic time series and is stochastically equivalent to a simple scaling behaviour of climate variability over time scale.We demonstrate that this behaviour is dominant in paleoclimate reconstructions of Pleistocene and Pliocene (0.01 – 5 million years) and has a serious impact on the estimation of uncertainty. The comparison between the classical statistical framework and the Hurst-Kolmogorov approach results in significant differences, particularly in the implied uncertainty.
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P. Dimitriadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Paschalis, Three dimensional Hurst-Kolmogorov process for modelling rainfall fields, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, EGU2010-979-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29844.30088, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
A three-dimensional (3D) stochastic simulation model is presented, which is a direct extension of the 1D simple scaling process (fractional Gaussian noise). The 3D process can generate time-varying 2D rainfall fields through a rather simple procedure, as well as other time-varying 2D spatial geophysical fields, consistent with the observed 2D long-term spatial persistence over time (3D slowly decaying autocorrelation over scale). Moreover, the differences between 1D (generating rainfall time series at a point), 2D (generating rainfall fields for specific time steps) and 3D (generating spatio-temporal rainfall fields) scaling processes are also being investigated through some applications based on observed rainfall fields.
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S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the tail of the daily rainfall probability distribution: Exponential-type, power-type or something else?, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, EGU2010-11769-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36660.04489, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Use of Modflow as an interpolation method, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, 12, 10184, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29949.15845, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Kriging is the most common method used for interpolations in groundwater applications. This geostatistical method is based on the assumption that the hydraulic conditions and properties of aquifers are random fields with known stochastic structure. This pure statistical approach, the ordinary Kriging method, has the disadvantage that it does not guarantee that the values of the interpolated hydraulic heads are consistent with the groundwater flow physics. This weakness is mitigated in the Universal Kriging (UK) method with the use of the so-called drifts. However the efficiency of the UK method still requires inspection in the vicinity of groundwater stresses (e.g. wells) or boundary conditions (no-flow boundary). In this study the use of MODFLOWfor interpolation purposes is proposed as an alternative to the UK method. MODFLOW is simulating the aquifer without the requirement to represent accurately the aquifer water budget (the primary requirement in any normal operational application of MODFLOW). Instead, the MODFLOW parameters (conductivity, porosity) and stresses (recharge or release) are calibrated to minimize the residuals between the simulated and observed hydraulic heads. Consequently, the estimated parameters do not have a specific physical meaning but are rather considered as the parameters of the MODFLOW-driven interpolation. In the case study presented here, a hypothetical aquifer is used to produce synthetic observations. These observations are interpreted with the UK based model KT3D-H2O and with the proposed method. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed method is able to provide a better interpretation of the available data especially in the vicinity of areas where boundary conditions and stresses apply.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Why (and how) to write and publish a scientific paper in hydrology? (Invited lecture), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Remarks:
Update 2010-05-13 by DK: I gave this lecture on 2010-05-05 and at that time I was not aware that Vit Klemes, to whom I heavily referred in the lecture, had passed away on 2010-03-08. My last communication with him was on 2010-02-15.
I ex post dedicate the lecture to the memory of Vit Klemes.
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See also: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/session/3172
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Hughes, D. A., K. V. Heal and C. Leduc, Improving the visibility of hydrological sciences from developing countries, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.938653, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Some problems in inference from time series of geophysical processes (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, EGU2010-14229, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13171.94244, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Due to the complexity of geophysical processes, their modelling and the conducting of typical tasks, such as estimation, prediction and hypothesis testing, heavily rely on available data series and their statistical processing. The classical statistical approaches, which are often used in geophysical modelling, are based upon several simplifying assumptions, which are invalidated in natural processes. Central among these is the (usually tacit) time independence assumption which is regarded to simplify modelling and statistical testing at no substantial cost for the validity of results. Moreover, the perception of the general behaviour of the natural processes and the implied uncertainty is heavily affected by the classical statistical paradigm that is in common use. However, the study of natural behaviours reveals the dominance of change at a multitude of time scales, which in statistical terms is translated in strong time dependence, decaying very slowly with lag time. In its simplest form, this dependence, and equivalently the multi-scale change, can be described by a Hurst-Kolmogorov process using a single parameter additional to those of the marginal distribution. Remarkably, the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics results in much higher uncertainty in comparison to either nonstationary descriptions, or to typical stationary descriptions with independent random processes and common Markov-type processes. In addition, as far as typical statistical estimation is concerned, the Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics implies dramatically higher intervals in the estimation of location statistical parameters (e.g., mean) and highly negative bias in the estimation of dispersion parameters (e.g., standard deviation), not to mention the bias and uncertainty in higher order moments. Surprisingly, all these differences are commonly unaccounted for in most studies of geophysical processes, which may result in inappropriate modelling, wrong inferences and false claims about the properties of the processes studied. Several real-world and synthetic examples are used to demonstrate the degree of misleading conclusions about natural processes and how these could be avoided by correct account of the differences from the classical statistical paradigm.
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A. Varveris, P. Panagopoulos, K. Triantafillou, A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessment of environmental flows of Acheloos Delta, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, 12046, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14849.66404, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Acheloos, the river with the highest discharge among rivers of Greece, hosts three hydroelectric dams, while two more dams are under construction. In addition, there are plans for partial diversion of the river to a nearby water district, for irrigation and hydroelectric development. The Acheloos Delta is considered to be one of the most significant Mediterranean wetland habitats for its ecological importance, including fish fauna. In this case study we aim to redefine the ecological flow and propose an outflow management policy from the most downstream reservoir (Stratos), in order to preserve the ecosystem at the Acheloos Delta. A hydrological analysis is employed to reconstruct the natural discharge records along the river on a daily basis, accompanied by a detailed evaluation of alternative methodologies for the estimation of the ecological flow. Based on the results of the analyses, the corresponding water management policy is determined, taking into account the characteristics of the hydropower plan and the related hydraulic works.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14849.66404
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Fourniotis, N. T., M. Stavropoulou-Gatsi and I. K. Kalavrouziotis, Acheloos River: The timeless, and since ancient period, contribution to the development and environmental upgrading of Western Greece, Proceedings 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul-Turkey, 420-428, 2012. |
| 2. | Fourniotis, N. T., A proposal for impact evaluation of the diversion of the Acheloos River on the Acheloos estuary in Western Greece, International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, 4(4), 1792-1802, 2012. |
S. Kozanis, A. Christofides, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrognomon – open source software for the analysis of hydrological data, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, 12419, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.21350.83527, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
Hydrognomon is a software tool for the processing of hydrological data. It is an open source application running on standard Microsoft Windows platforms, and it is part of the openmeteo.org framework. Data are imported through standard text files, spreadsheets or by typing. Standard hydrological data processing techniques include time step aggregation and regularization, interpolation, regression analysis and infilling of missing values, consistency tests, data filtering, graphical and tabular visualisation of time series, etc. It supports several time steps, from the finest minute scales up to decades; specific cases of irregular time steps and offsets are also supported. The program also includes common hydrological applications, such as evapotranspiration modelling, stage-discharge analysis, homogeneity tests, areal integration of point data series, processing of hydrometric data, as well as lumped hydrological modelling with automatic calibration facilities. Here the emphasis is given on the statistical module of Hydrognomon, which provides tools for data exploration, fitting of distribution functions, statistical prediction, Monte-Carlo simulation, determination of confidence limits, analysis of extremes, and construction of ombrian (intensity-duration-frequency) curves. Hydrognomon is available for download from http://hydrognomon.org/.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21350.83527
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Sebastianelli, S., M. Giglioni, C. Mineo, and S. Magnald, On the hydrologic-hydraulic revaluation of large dams, International Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics 2015 (ICNAAM 2015), 1738, 430003-1–430003-4, doi:10.1063/1.4952216, 2016. |
| 2. | #Mineo, C., S. Sebastianelli, L. Marinucci, and F. Russo, Assessment of the watershed DEM mesh size influence on a large dam design hydrograph, AIP Conference Proceedings, 1738, 430003, 2016. |
| 3. | Tsitroulis, I., K. Voudouris, A. Vasileiou, C. Mattas, M. Sapountzis, and F. Maris, Flood hazard assessment and delimitation of the likely flood hazard zones of the upper part in Gallikos river basin, Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, 50(2), 995-1005, doi:10.12681/bgsg.11804, 2016. |
| 4. | López J. J., O. Delgado, and M. A. Campo, Determination of the IDF curves in Igueldo-San Sebastián. Comparison of different methods, Ingeniería del Agua, 22(4), 209-223, doi:10.4995/Ia.2018.9480, 2018. |
| 5. | Nyaupane, N., B. Thakur, A. Kalra, and S. Ahmad, Evaluating future flood scenarios using CMIP5 climate projections, Water, 10, 1866, doi:10.3390/w10121866, 2018. |
| 6. | Vargas, M. M., S. Beskow, T. L. Caldeira, L. de Lima Corrêa, and Z. Almeida da Cunha, SYHDA – System of Hydrological Data Acquisition and Analysis, Brazilian Journal of Water Resources, 24, e11, doi:10.1590/2318-0331.241920180152, 2019. |
| 7. | Houessou-Dossou, E. A. Y., J. M. Gathenya, M. Njuguna, and Z. A. Gariy, Flood frequency analysis using participatory GIS and rainfall data for two stations in Narok Town, Kenya, Hydrology, 6(4), 90, doi:10.3390/hydrology6040090, 2019. |
| 8. | López Díez, A., P. Máyer Suárez, J. Díaz Pacheco, and P. Dorta Antequera, Rainfall and flooding in coastal tourist areas of the Canary Islands (Spain), Atmosphere, 10(12), 809, doi:10.3390/atmos10120809, 2019. |
| 9. | Pamirbek, M., X. Chen, S. Aher, A. Salamat, P. Deshmukh, and C. Temirbek, Analysis of discharge variability in the Naryn river basin, Kyrgyzstan, Hydrospatial Analysis, 3(2), 90-106, doi:10.21523/gcj3.19030204, 2019. |
| 10. | Tadesse, M., Spatial and temporal variability analysis and mapping of reference evapotranspiration for Jimma Zone, Southwestern Ethiopia, International Journal of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, 6(3), 108-115, doi:10.11648/j.ijnrem.20210603.12, 2021. |
| 11. | Hayder, A. M., and M. Al-Mukhtar, Modelling the IDF curves using the temporal stochastic disaggregation BLRP model for precipitation data in Najaf City, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14, 1957, doi:10.1007/s12517-021-08314-6, 2021. |
A. Efstratiadis, I. Nalbantis, E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Accounting for water management issues within hydrological simulation: Alternative modelling options and a network optimization approach, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, Vienna, 10085, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22189.69603, European Geosciences Union, 2010.
In mixed natural and artificialized river basins, many complexities arise due to anthropogenic interventions in the hydrological cycle, including abstractions from surface water bodies, groundwater pumping or recharge and water returns through drainage systems. Typical engineering approaches adopt a multi-stage modelling procedure, with the aim to handle the complexity of process interactions and the lack of measured abstractions. In such context, the entire hydrosystem is separated into natural and artificial sub-systems or components; the natural ones are modelled individually, and their predictions (i.e. hydrological fluxes) are transferred to the artificial components as inputs to a water management scheme. To account for the interactions between the various components, an iterative procedure is essential, whereby the outputs of the artificial sub-systems (i.e. abstractions) become inputs to the natural ones. However, this strategy suffers from multiple shortcomings, since it presupposes that pure natural sub-systems can be located and that sufficient information is available for each sub-system modelled, including suitable, i.e. “unmodified”, data for calibrating the hydrological component. In addition, implementing such strategy is ineffective when the entire scheme runs in stochastic simulation mode. To cope with the above drawbacks, we developed a generalized modelling framework, following a network optimization approach. This originates from the graph theory, which has been successfully implemented within some advanced computer packages for water resource systems analysis. The user formulates a unified system which is comprised of the hydrographical network and the typical components of a water management network (aqueducts, pumps, junctions, demand nodes etc.). Input data for the later include hydraulic properties, constraints, targets, priorities and operation costs. The real-world system is described through a conceptual graph, whose dummy properties are the conveyance capacity and the unit cost of each link. Unit costs are either real or artificial, and positive or negative. Positive costs are set to prohibit undesirable fluxes and negative ones to force fulfilling water demands for various uses. The assignment of costs is based on a recursive algorithm that implements the physical constraints and the user-specified hierarchy for the water uses. Referring to the desired management policy, an optimal allocation is achieved regarding the unknown fluxes within the hydrosystem (flows, abstractions, water losses) by minimizing the total transportation cost through the graph. The mathematical structure of the problem enables use of accurate and exceptionally fast solvers. The proposed methodology is effective, efficient and easy to implement, in order to link on-line multiple modelling components, thus ensuring a comprehensive overview of the process interactions in complex and heavily modified hydrosystems. It is applicable to hydrological simulators of the semi-distributed type, in which it allows integrating groundwater models and flood routing schemes within decision support modules. The methodology is implemented within the HYGROGEIOS computer package, which is illustrated by example applications in modified river basins in Greece.
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S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Ombrian curves: from theoretical consistency to engineering practice, 8th IAHS Scientific Assembly / 37th IAH Congress, Hyderabad, India, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12123.36648, 2009.
One of the major tools in hydrological design is the ombrian curves, more widely known by the misnomer rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. An ombrian curve is a mathematical relationship estimating the average rainfall intensity over a given timescale for a given return period. Several forms of ombrian curves are found in the literature, most of which have been empirically derived and validated by the long use in hydrological practice. Attempts to give them a theoretical basis have often used inappropriate assumptions (e.g. simple scaling) and resulted in oversimplified relationships that are not good for engineering studies. In a previous study, we have derived theoretically consistent ombrian curves based on a probability distribution suitable for describing the average rainfall intensity over a wide range of timescales (from sub-hourly to yearly). The mathematical form of those theoretically derived ombrian curves is not as simple as other widely used forms in practice. In this study, we present simplified ombrian relationships, which are approximations of the theoretically consistent one for a typical range of timescales, suitable for use in hydrological engineering.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Seeking parsimony in hydrology and water resources technology (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 11469, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20511.97443, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
The principle of parsimony, also known as the principle of simplicity, the principle of economy and Ockham’s razor, advises scientists to prefer the simplest theory among those that fit the data equally well. In this, it is an epistemic principle but reflects an ontological characterization that the universe is ultimately parsimonious. Is this principle useful and can it really be reconciled with, and implemented to, our modelling approaches of complex hydrological systems, whose elements and events are extraordinarily numerous, different and unique? The answer underlying the mainstream hydrological research of the last two decades seems to be negative. Hopes were invested to the power of computers that would enable faithful and detailed representation of the diverse system elements and the hydrological processes, based on merely “first principles” and resulting in “physically-based” models that tend to approach in complexity the real world systems. Today the account of such research endeavour seems not positive, as it did not improve model predictive capacity and processes comprehension. A return to parsimonious modelling seems to be again the promising route. The experience from recent research and from comparisons of parsimonious and complicated models indicates that the former can facilitate insight and comprehension, improve accuracy and predictive capacity, and increase efficiency. In addition – and despite aspiration that “physically based” models will have lower data requirements and, even, they ultimately become “data-free” – parsimonious models require fewer data to achieve the same accuracy with more complicated models.
Naturally, the concepts that reconcile the simplicity of parsimonious models with the complexity of hydrological systems are probability theory and statistics. Probability theory provides the theoretical basis for moving from a microscopic to a macroscopic view of phenomena, by mapping sets of diverse elements and events of hydrological systems to single numbers (a probability or an expected value), and statistics provides the empirical basis of summarizing data, making inference from them, and supporting decision making in water resource management. Unfortunately, the current state of the art in probability, statistics and their union, often called stochastics, is not fully satisfactory for the needs of modelling of hydrological and water resource systems. A first problem is that stochastic modelling has traditionally relied on classical statistics, which is based on the independent “coin-tossing” prototype, rather than on the study of real-world systems whose behaviour is very different from the classical prototype. A second problem is that the stochastic models (particularly the multivariate ones) are often not parsimonious themselves. Therefore, substantial advancement of stochastics is necessary in a new paradigm of parsimonious hydrological modelling.
These ideas are illustrated using several examples, namely: (a) hydrological modelling of a karst system in Bosnia and Herzegovina using three different approaches ranging from parsimonious to detailed “physicallybased”; (b) parsimonious modelling of a peculiar modified catchment in Greece; (c) a stochastic approach that can replace parameter-excessive ARMA-type models with a generalized algorithm that produces any shape of autocorrelation function (consistent with the accuracy provided by the data) using a couple of parameters; (d) a multivariate stochastic approach which replaces a huge number of parameters estimated from data with coefficients estimated by the principle of maximum entropy; and (e) a parsimonious approach for decision making in multi-reservoir systems using a handful of parameters instead of thousands of decision variables.
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A. Tegos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimation of potential evapotranspiration with minimal data dependence, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 1937, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27222.86089, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
We develop a parametric expression which approximates the Penman-Monteith equation thus providing easy estimation of the potential evapotranspiration with minimal data requirements. Namely, the method requires as inputs the mean temperature and the extraterrestrial radiation, from which only the temperature needs to be measured. The model was applied on a monthly step in 37 meteorological stations of Greece for the periods 1968-1983 (calibration period) and 1984-1989 (validation period). The results are satisfactory as the efficiency is greater than 0.97 for all stations and for both calibration and validation periods. Initially, the parametric expression involves three parameters but regional analysis indicates that reduction to one or two parameters is possible and does not increase the error substantially. Using optimization and geographic interpolation through a geographical information system, the parameter values were mapped for the entire territory of Greece, which makes the method directly applicable to any site in the country, the only requirement being that mean temperature data be available.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27222.86089
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Tabari, H., P. H. Talaee, P. Willems, and C. Martinez, Validation and calibration of solar radiation equations for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration at cool semi-arid and arid locations, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2014. |
A. Efstratiadis, K. Mazi, A. D. Koussis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Flood modelling in complex hydrologic systems with sparsely resolved data, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 4157, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13801.08807, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
The European Directive on Assessment and Management of Flood Risks places significant emphasis on establishing tools suitable for simulating the relevant hydrologic processes in areas of high flood risk. Because flood modelling requires relatively detailed spatial and temporal resolutions, the model selection is controlled by the available distributed hydrologic information. The value of data (mainly stage/discharge records) is indisputable, since the quality of calibration and, consequently, the model predictive capacity, depends on the availability of reliable observations at multiple sites. On the other hand, data scarcity is a global problem in hydrologic engineering that is getting increasingly severe as the monitoring infrastructure is shrinking and degraded. It is therefore crucial to build reliable models that are parsimonious. In this vein, we have adapted the HYDROGEIOS model (Efstratiadis et al., 2008), initially developed as a conjunctive surface-groundwater simulation and water management tool at the monthly time scale, to run in daily time steps. In typical flood simulation packages inputs are time series of precipitation, which are resolved in hourly or finer increment, and detailed hydro-morphologic properties of the stream network. In contrast, the enhanced version of HYDROGEIOS only uses daily rainfall depths and a limited number of parameters that are estimated or calibrated on the basis of once-a-day discharge data. The character of HYDROGEIOS as a conjunctive model enables to represent simultaneously the interactions among the surface and sub-surface processes and the human interventions, and to route the runoff across the stream network. Lacking finely resolved precipitation data and for the purpose of flood routing, we have applied a disaggregation technique to analyse the simulated daily hydrographs in finer time steps. Flood routing is implemented via either a kinematic-wave or a Muskingum diffusive-wave scheme, introducing only one or two parameters per stream reach, respectively. The new version of HYDROGEIOS is being tested on the Boeotikos Kephisos River Basin for flood forecasting in real-time, using as input precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction simulations (European project FLASH). The basin is heavily modified, with strong physical heterogeneities, involving multiple peculiarities such as significant karst springs, which rapidly contribute to the streamflow, thus reflecting a strong interaction between surface and ground water processes, and a drainage canal and network in the lower basin with extremely small slopes.
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V. Montesarchio, F. Napolitano, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Preliminary data analysis for a multisite rainfall stochastic model implementation, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 8689, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
In many hydrological applications and in developing flood risk management strategies, stochastic rainfall simulation is the most convenient and reliable method. Generally, it is required that the stochastic model preserves important properties of the rainfall process such as intermittency, seasonality and scaling behavior in space and time, so that there will be no substantial differences between historical rainfall data and synthetic records. This paper summarizes an investigation of rainfall properties in the North Lazio Region, Italy. The spatial variability of rainfall is examined for the years 1993-2008, at time scales from 30 min to 1 year using a raingauge network (at least 17 instruments on 4000 square kilometers). Examined properties are basic statistics of rainfall process (maximum, minimum and mean value, variance, skewness, kurtosis), probability and length of dry intervals, and dependence structure of rainfall (time and space correlation between time series for different time scales, hourly, daily, monthly, yearly). The study concludes with a discussion of results, and the specifications of an appropriate stochastic model for multisite rainfall simulation, in order to be used in a flood risk evaluation methodology.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/903/1/documents/EGU2009-8689.pdf (108 KB)
See also: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/poster_programme/1187
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An all-timescales rainfall probability distribution, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 13469, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23867.41762, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
The selection of a probability distribution for rainfall intensity at many different timescales simultaneously is of primary interest and importance as typically the hydraulic design strongly depends on the rainfall model choice. It is well known that the rainfall distribution may have a long tail, is highly skewed at fine timescales and tends to normality as the timescale increases. This behaviour, explained by the maximum entropy principle (and for large timescales also by the central limit theorem), indicates that the construction of a “universal” probability distribution, capable to adequately describe the rainfall in all timescales, is a difficult task. A search in hydrological literature confirms this argument, as many different distributions have been proposed as appropriate models for different timescales or even for the same timescale, such as Normal, Skew-Normal, two- and three-parameter Log-Normal, Log-Normal mixtures, Generalized Logistic, Pearson Type III, Log-Pearson Type III, Wakeby, Generalized Pareto, Weibull, three- and four-parameter Kappa distribution, and many more. Here we study a single flexible four-parameter distribution for rainfall intensity (the JH distribution) and derive its basic statistics. This distribution incorporates as special cases many other well known distributions, and is capable of describing rainfall in a great range of timescales. Furthermore, we demonstrate the excellent fitting performance of the distribution in various rainfall samples from different areas and for timescales varying from sub-hourly to annual.
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A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the practical use of multiobjective optimisation in hydrological model calibration, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 2326, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10445.64480, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
In the last decade, the application of multiobjective optimisation algorithms in calibrating hydrological models has become increasingly popular. This approach enables for generating a number of Pareto-optimal parameter sets on the basis of multiple criteria, usually expressed by means of statistical fitting functions on observed data. Since the focus was given to the algorithmic handling of the problem, less attention was paid on some critical practical issues, regarding the selection of criteria and the identification of acceptable compromises among the vast number of non-dominated solutions. These are revealed by means of real-world examples, involving models of different levels of complexity. We provide some practical guidelines to take advantage of the hydrological experience, in order to enhance the information contained in calibration, thus ensuring consistent and reliable models. In this context, we emphasise on the incorporation of the so-called "soft" data within calibration, which characterise the qualitative rather than the quantitative knowledge about the behaviour of the hydrological system. This allows for evaluating the model performance against a number of responses and internal variables that are not controlled by measurements. Moreover, we attempt to treat the concepts of equifinality and Pareto optimality, as two complementary approaches to the parameter estimation problem. Finally, having determined a representative set of non-dominated solutions, we examine strategies for selecting the best-suited one and recognising ill-performed calibrations, which are due to either structural or data errors.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.10445.64480
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Malleson, N., L. See, A. Evans and A. Heppenstall, Optimising an agent-based model to explore the behaviour of simulated burglars, Theories and Simulations of Complex Social Systems (Intelligent Systems Reference Library) 52, 179-204, 2014. |
G. G. Anagnostopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, and N. Mamassis, Credibility of climate predictions revisited, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 611, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15898.24009, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
In a recent study (Koutsoyiannis et al., On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008), the credibility of climate predictions was assessed based on comparisons with long series of observations. Extending this research, which compared the outputs of various climatic models to temperature and precipitation observations from 8 stations around the globe, we test the performance of climate models at over 50 additional stations. Furthermore, we make comparisons at a large sub-continental spatial scale after integrating modelled and observed series.
Remarks:
Please visit/cite the peer-reviewed version of this article:
Anagnostopoulos, G. G., D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, 2010.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.15898.24009
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Stockwell, D. R. B., Critique of Drought Models in the Australian Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), Energy & Environment, 21 (5), 425-436, 2010. |
A. Katerinopoulou, K. Kagia, M. Karapiperi, A. Kassela, A. Paschalis, G.-M. Tsarouchi, Y. Markonis, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Reservoir yield-reliability relationship and frequency of multi-year droughts for scaling and non-scaling reservoir inflows, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 8063, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12542.79682, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
Being a group of undergraduate students attending the course of Stochastic Methods inWater Resources, we study, in cooperation with our tutors, the influence of the scaling behaviour (also known as long-term persistence) of reservoir inflows to the reservoir yield-reliability relationship and to the frequency of multi-year droughts, in comparison to conventional, non-scaling, inputs. We perform an integrated monthly-scale simulation of the Hylike natural lake, which is one of the four reservoirs of the water resource system of Athens. Reservoir inflows, evaporation and precipitation on the lake surface, as well as leakage, which is significant due to the karstic subsurface of the lake, are all considered into the simulation. The reservoir inflows are generated by two alternative monthly stochastic models, a short term persistence model and a long term one, both cyclostationary. The resulting differences of the two approaches in the reservoir yield-reliability relationship and the frequency of multi-year drought periods (i.e. those in which demand is not fully satisfied) are discussed.
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Additional material:
See also: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/poster_programme/816
D. Koutsoyiannis, A random walk on water (Henry Darcy Medal Lecture), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, Vienna, 14033, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2139.4800, European Geosciences Union, 2009.
According to the traditional notion of randomness and uncertainty, natural phenomena are separated into two mutually exclusive components, random or stochastic, and deterministic. Within this dichotomous logic, the deterministic part supposedly represents cause-effect relationships and, thus, is physics and science (the “good”), and randomness has little relationship with science and no relationship with understanding (the “evil”). We can argue that that such views should be reconsidered by admitting that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature; that causality implies dependence of natural processes in time, thus suggesting predictability; and that even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g., in initial conditions) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon. With these premises it is possible to shape a consistent stochastic representation of natural processes. In such a representation, predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist and are not separable or additive components. Deciding which of the two dominates is simply a matter of specifying the time horizon of the prediction.
Remarks:
The Henry Darcy Medal is awarded by the European Geosciences Union to individuals in recognition of their outstanding scientific contributions in water resources research and water resources engineering and management.
EGU conference programme: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/oral_programme/1530
Related works:
Full text:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2139.4800
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Reichl, J. P. C., A. W. Western, N. R. McIntyre, and F. H. S. Chiew, Optimization of a similarity measure for estimating ungauged streamflow, Water Resources Research, 45, Art. No. W10423, doi:10.1029/2008WR007248, 2009. |
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Probabilistic description of rainfall intensity at multiple time scales, IHP 2008 Capri Symposium: “The Role of Hydrology in Water Resources Management”, Capri, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17575.96169, UNESCO, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2008.
The probabilistic description of the average rainfall intensity over a certain time scale in relationship with the time scale length has theoretical interest, in understanding the behaviour of the rainfall process, and practical interest in constructing relationships between intensity, time scale (sometimes called “duration”) and return period (or “frequency”). To study these relationships, the principle of maximum entropy can serve as a sound theoretical background. Using a long rainfall dataset from Athens, Greece, and time scales ranging from 1 hour to 1 year, we study statistical properties such as (a) probability dry and its relationship with rainfall intensity and time scale, (b) marginal probability distribution function of rainfall intensity, with emphasis on the tails, and its variation with time scale (c) dependence structure of rainfall intensity with reference to time scale, and (d) statistical properties that are invariant or scaling with time scale. The study concludes with a discussion of the usefulness of these analyses in hydrological design.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.17575.96169
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Poveda, G., Mixed Memory, (non) Hurst Effect, and Maximum Entropy of Rainfall in the Tropical Andes, Advances in Water Resources, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.11.007, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, From climate certainties to climate stochastics (Opening Lecture), IHP 2008 Capri Symposium: “The Role of Hydrology in Water Resources Management”, Capri, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28481.15205/1, UNESCO, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2008.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Long tails of marginal distribution and autocorrelation function of rainfall produced by the maximum entropy principle, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 10751, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13381.65766, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
The long tails of the marginal distribution and the autocorrelation function of rainfall are related to the observed rich patterns in hyetographs, the diversity of rainfall events and even the intermittent behaviour. However, maximization of the classical Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy for rainfall at a specific time scale, assuming a specified mean, would result in an exponentially distributed Markovian process. Such a process, with short tails both in the marginal distribution and autocorrelation function, would produce unrealistic rainfall patterns characterized by monotony and without intermittency. Some modified methodologies, which involve the use of a generalized definition of entropy, have been already proposed to reinstate consistency of the maximum entropy principle and observed rainfall behaviour. Here we explore another method which uses the classical entropy definition but assumes that rainfall can be represented as a chain of stochastic processes, each member of which represents the mean of the previous process and has lag one autocorrelation greater than that of the previous process. Application of the method using Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that such a chain with only three members can produce synthetic traces resembling actual hyetographs.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.13381.65766
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Poveda, G., Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes, Advances in Water Resources, 34 (2), 243-256, 2011. |
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Ombrian curves in a maximum entropy framework, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 00702, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23447.98720, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
Ombrian curves (from the Greek ombros, meaning rainfall) are most widely known as rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves or relationships. However, the former term may be preferable as the later is inaccurate. Namely, "frequency" is meant to be "return period" where as "duration" is in fact the "time scale" on which the rainfall process is averaged. Thus, ombrian relationships are nothing more than multiple time scale expressions of the rainfall probability. Three important issues regarding the mathematical form of the ombrian relationships are examined: (a) whether or not the effects of time scale and return period are separable so that the relationship could be written as the product of two scalar functions; (b) whether or not the rainfall intensity is a power function of return period and (c) whether or not the rainfall is a power function of time scale. All these questions are investigated using the principle of maximum entropy as a theoretical basis and a long rainfall data set as an empirical basis. It turns out that none of the above questions has a precisely positive answer, which makes the theoretical derivation of ombrian curves a complicated task. For this reason, consistent approximations are sought, which eventually do not depart significantly from commonly used forms in engineering practice.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23447.98720
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Grimaldi, S., S.-C. Kao, A. Castellarin, S. M. Papalexiou, A. Viglione, F. Laio, H. Aksoy and A. Gedikli, Statistical Hydrology, In: Treatise on Water Science (ed. by P. Wilderer), 2, 479–517, Academic Press, Oxford, 2011. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 09074, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16658.45768, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
As falsifiability is an essential element of science (Karl Popper), many have disputed the scientific basis of climatic predictions on the grounds that they are not falsifiable or verifiable at present. This critique arises from the argument that we need to wait several decades before we may know how reliable the predictions will be. However, elements of falsifiability already exist, given that many of the climatic model outputs contain time series for past periods. In particular, the models of the IPCC Third Assessment Report have projected future climate starting from 1990; thus, there is an 18-year period for which comparison of model outputs and reality is possible. In practice, the climatic model outputs are downscaled to finer spatial scales, and conclusions are drawn for the evolution of regional climates and hydrological regimes; thus, it is essential to make such comparisons on regional scales and point basis rather than on global or hemispheric scales. In this study, we have retrieved temperature and precipitation records, at least 100-year long, from a number of stations worldwide. We have also retrieved a number of climatic model outputs, extracted the time series for the grid points closest to each examined station, and produced a time series for the station location based on best linear estimation. Finally, to assess the reliability of model predictions, we have compared the historical with the model time series using several statistical indicators including long-term variability, from monthly to overyear (climatic) time scales. Based on these analyses, we discuss the usefulness of climatic model future projections (with emphasis on precipitation) from a hydrological perspective, in relationship to a long-term uncertainty framework.
Remarks:
Please visit/cite the peer-reviewed version of this article:
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671-684, 2008.
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Errata: In slide 3 "regional projections" should read "geographically distributed projections" and the reference of figures to IPCC chapter 11 (Christensen et al., 2007) should change to Chapter 10 (Meehl et al., 2007; also in list of references in slide 20). In slide 11 "Albany, Florida" should read "Albany, Georgia" (thanks to QE in the Small Dead Animals blog who spotted them).
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Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16658.45768
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Ekmann, J., and R.C. Dolence, Energy project risk amidst climate change regulatory uncertainty, 25th Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, PCC – Proceedings, 2008. |
| 2. | #Taylor, P., Chill, a reassessment of global warming theory: does climate change mean the world is cooling, and if so what should we do about it?, Clairview Books, 404 pp., 2009. |
| 3. | #Howell, B., The Kyoto Premise and the catastrophic failure of rational, logical, and scientific thinking by essentially all scientists, Lies, Damned Lies, and Scientists: the Kyoto Premise example, Chapter A.1, 2011. |
| 4. | Bakker, A. M. R., and B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, Estimation of persistence and trends in geostrophic wind speed for the assessment of wind energy yields in Northwest Europe, Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4), 767-782, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and T.A. Cohn, The Hurst phenomenon and climate (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 11804, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13303.01447, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
Hurst's observation in 1950 that Nile streamflows exhibit persistent excursions from their mean value has plagued, entertained and humbled hydrologists for over half a century. The "Hurst phenomenon," sometimes denoted "long-term persistence (LTP)", has subsequently been recognized in countless natural and artificial processes. While LTP initially presented an analytical challenge, the concern was mostly academic: In many practical situations, calibration datasets were insufficiently long to reveal LTP; planning horizons were sufficiently short that other sources of variability and uncertainty dominated the effect of LTP; and the Hurst phenomenon seemed relevant, if at all, only to very large water projects. However, things have changed: Statistical tools and stochastic theory have improved, more data are available, and research now suggests that LTP is nearly ubiquitous when dealing with complex natural systems. Moreover, many of the problems we face today occur over the large spatial and temporal scales where LTP tends to emerge as a dominant component of natural processes evolving in continuous time or space. Under such circumstances, LTP must be taken into account when conducting statistical analyses and predictions. In particular, physical arguments and data indicate that LTP is likely a fundamental characteristic of global climate processes, and thus, when studying climate data, it would seem prudent to employ statistical methods that are robust to the presence of LTP.
Remarks:
The title of the presentation changed to "Hurst-Kolmogorov pragmaticity and climate" (see full text)
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.13303.01447
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Stockwell, D. R. B., and A. Cox, Structural break models of climatic regime-shifts: claims and forecasts, arXiv:0907.1650, 2009. |
| 2. | Bakker, A. M. R., and B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, Estimation of persistence and trends in geostrophic wind speed for the assessment of wind energy yields in Northwest Europe, Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4), 767-782, 2012. |
N. Zarkadoulas, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Climate, water and health in ancient Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 12006, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31757.95207, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
In contrast to earlier ancient civilizations (Egypt, Mesopotamia, Indus) that flourished in water-abundant environments (large river valleys), ancient Greeks preferred to establish their settlements in dry, water-scarce sites. It seems to be a paradox that all major Greek cities during the several phases of the Greek civilization that lasted for millennia, were established in those areas that had the minimal rainfall across the continental and insular Greece. Although there exist some medium-scale rivers and lakes in Greece, there has been no major city close to them in Greek antiquity. It can be argued that in such choices, climate and health have been the main criteria: dry climates are generally more convenient to live and healthier as they protect the population from water-related diseases. The progress in Greek civilization has been closely connected to hygienic living standards and a comfortable lifestyle. To achieve these, both technological infrastructures and management solutions were developed. In Crete, hygienic technologies were practiced as early as in the Minoan period of the island (3500-1200 BC) and were followed in several other cases in mainland Greece and the Aegean islands. The technological frame created comprised: (a) bathrooms, toilets (resembling modern day ones with flushing devices) and other sanitary facilities; (b) urban wastewater management systems; and (c) underground aqueducts that ensure superior water quality and safety against pollution and sabotage. The importance attached to the hygienic use of water in ancient Greece is highlighted in the case of Athens, a city established in one of the driest places of Greece. The entire Peisistratean aqueduct (6th century BC), which transferred water from the Hymettos Mountain to the city center, was constructed as an underground channel. There were bathrooms, latrines and other sanitary facilities, both public and private. Finally, an extended wastewater management network connected every single building of the Athenian Agora to the so-called Great Drain. The whole infrastructure can only be compared to modern hygienic water systems, reestablished in Europe and North America from the second half of the nineteenth century AD.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.31757.95207
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Founda, D., and C. Giannakopoulos, The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece—A typical summer in the future climate?, Global and Planetary Change, 67(3-4), 227-236, 2009. |
| 2. | #Parise, M., Underground aqueducts: A first preliminary bibliography around the world, Proceedings 3rd IWA Specialized Conference on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Istanbul, Turkey, 65-72, 2012. |
| 3. | #Antoniou, G. P., G. Lyberatos, E. I. Kanetaki, A. Kaiafa, K. Voudouris and A. N. Angelakis, History of urban wastewater and stormwater sanitation technologies in Hellas, Evolution of Sanitation and Wastewater Technologies through the Centuries, ed. by A.N. Angelakis and J.B. Rose, 99-146, IWA Publishing, London, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, On detectability of nonstationarity from data using statistical tools, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 05634, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32596.81282, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
It has been a common practice in geophysical research to characterize observed time series as nonstationary and to apply statistical tools to detect nonstationarity. However, in many cases the logic of such detections is flawed, principally because stationarity and nonstationarity are not properties of the time series (phenomena) but of the mathematical processes (noumena) devised to model the phenomena, and also depend on our current knowledge of the system state. One of the most common flaws is the rejection of a stationarity hypothesis based on a classical statistical test which assumes that the process is independent in time, whilst it is well understandable that time independence is not an appropriate assumption for geophysical processes. In the case that a scaling behaviour is verified or assumed, one of the most common misuses of statistics is the characterization of a time series as nonstationary based on an estimation of a Hurst exponent greater than 1. Among the tools used for such estimations is the spectral representation of the time series. To demonstrate common flaws, several examples are synthesized, using data generated from hypothesized models, known a priori to be stationary or nonstationary. The examples aim to demonstrate that erroneous conclusions are very probable and to locate the origin of flawed results.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Emergence of antipersistence and persistence from a deterministic toy model, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, Vienna, 05615, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30919.09122, European Geosciences Union, 2008.
A toy model is developed to demonstrate the emergence of antipersistence and persistence using simple deterministic dynamics. Because of its simplicity it may be useful in understanding these behaviours and in avoiding misinterpretation of more complex natural systems. A hypothetical plain is assumed with water stored in the soil, which sustains some vegetation. Each year a constant amount of water enters the soil and the potential evapotranspiration is also constant, but the actual evapotranspiration varies following the variation of the vegetation cover, which in turn varies with soil water. The vegetation cover and the soil water storage are the two state variables of the system. The system dynamics is expressed by very simple equations. It is demonstrated that the system trajectory, as seen from synthesized time series, is characterized by antipersistence or fluctuations around the mean value with fast recovery of the mean. The fluctuations seem to be periodic but longer series reveal that there is no constant period. This behaviour reminds time series of phenomena that have been called "oscillations" such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. On the other hand, the series of consecutive peaks of the system storage exhibits large and long excursions of local average from the overall mean, a behaviour known as long-term persistence or scaling behaviour. The produced trajectories give the impression of nonstationary time series but there is nothing nonstationary in the model, which involves only three parameters constant in time, i.e. the constant infiltration and potential evaporation rates, and a standardizing parameter for soil moisture.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30919.09122
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Del Monte, E., M. Feroci, Y. Evangelista, E. Costa, I. Donnarumma, I. Lapshov, F. Lazzarotto, L. Pacciani, M. Rapisarda, P. Soffitta, A. Argan, G. Barbiellini, F. Boffelli, A. Bulgarelli, P. Caraveo, P.W. Cattaneo, A. Chen, F. D'Ammando, G. Di Cocco, F. Fuschino, M. Galli, F. Gianotti, A. Giuliani, C. Labanti, P. Lipari, F. Longo, M. Marisaldi, S. Mereghetti, E. Moretti, A. Morselli, A. Pellizzoni, F. Perotti, G. Piano, P. Picozza, M. Pilia, M. Prest, G. Pucella, A. Rappoldi, S. Sabatini, E. Striani, M. Tavani, M. Trifoglio, A. Trois, E. Vallazza, S. Vercellone, V. Vittorini, A. Zambra, L. A. Antonelli, S. Cutini, C. Pittori, B. Preger, P. Santolamazza, F. Verrecchia, P. Giommi, L. Salotti, A year-long AGILE observation of Cygnus X-1 in hard spectral state, Astronomy and Astrophysics, 520 (10), 2010, Art. no. A67, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/200913104, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, S.M. Papalexiou, and A. Montanari, Can a simple stochastic model generate a plethora of rainfall patterns? (invited), The Ultimate Rainmap: Rainmap Achievements and the Future in Broad-Scale Rain Modelling, Oxford, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36371.68642, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, 2007.
Several of the existing rainfall models involve diverse assumptions, a variety of uncertain parameters, complicated mechanistic structures, use of different model schemes for different time scales, and possibly classifications of rainfall patterns into different types. However, the parsimony of a model is recognized as an important desideratum as it improves its comprehensiveness, its applicability and possibly its predictive capacity. To investigate the question if a single and simple stochastic model can generate a plethora of temporal rainfall patterns, as well as to detect the major characteristics of such a model (if it exists), a data set with very fine timescale rainfall is used. This is the well-known data set of the University of Iowa comprising measurements of seven storm events at a temporal resolution of 5-10 seconds. Even though only seven such events have been observed, their diversity can help investigate these issues. An evident characteristic resulting from the stochastic analysis of the events is the scaling behaviours both in state and in time. Utilizing these behaviours, a single and simple stochastic model is constructed which can represent all rainfall events and all rich patterns, thus suggesting a positive reply to the above question. In addition, it seems that the most important characteristics of such a model are a power-type distribution tail and an asymptotic power-type autocorrelation function. Both power-type distribution tails and autocorrelation functions can be viewed as properties enhancing randomness and uncertainty, or entropy.
Related works:
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A. Montanari, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, The omnipresence of scaling behaviour in hydrometeorological time series and its implications in climatic change assessments, XXIV General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Perugia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26305.35688, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2007.
It is demonstrated by examples that long hydrometeorological time series exhibit scaling in time, a behaviour equivalent to the Hurst phenomenon. The example time series investigated range from high temporal resolution (10 seconds) rainfall measurements for rainfall events lasting a few hours to proxy time series of temperature for a period over 400 thousand years. The scaling behaviour may reflect a multi-timescale variability of several factors and, thus, can support a more complete physical understanding and uncertainty characterization of hydroclimatic processes. The implications of this behaviour in statistical analyses of hydrometeorological time series is substantial, particularly at large (climatic) time scales, but appear to be not fully understood or recognized as they have been neglected in most climatological studies. To offer insights on these implications, we demonstrate using analytical methods that the characteristics of several temperature proxy series, which appear to exhibit scaling behaviour, imply a dramatic increase of uncertainty in statistical estimation and reduction of significance in statistical testing, in comparison with classical statistics. Therefore, we maintain that statistical analysis in hydroclimatic research should be revisited, in order not to derive misleading results.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/786/1/documents/2007IAHSOmnipresenceSM.pdf (889 KB)
E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation error in groundwater models with rectangular and non rectangular discretization, XXIV General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Perugia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27983.07848, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2007.
The error of groundwater numerical models depends on the boundary conditions, the hydraulic conditions of the aquifer, the geometry of the flow field, the parameterization used to describe the heterogeneity of hydraulic field, the distribution and quality of the measurements and the discretization resolution. In this study we focus on the dependence of the error to the type and resolution of the spatial discretization. Using a two-dimensional stochastic model with a hypothetical aquifer, we produced a synthetic field of 100x100 hydraulic conductivities and we used a finite differences model (MODFLOW) to obtain synthetic fields of hydraulic head. Hereupon we used 4 grids (100x100, 50x50, 20x20, 12x12) and a simple parameterization (6 zones of homogeneous conductivity), common for all grids, along with a parameter estimation algorithm based on a modified Gauss-Newton method. Moreover we used 3dkflow, a model based on finite volumes method with simplified integration that uses a non rectangular sparse discretization (43 cells) in conjunction with the Shuffled Complex Evolution optimization algorithm. In the latter model every cell had a unique conductivity resulting in 43 conductivity parameters. Finally we compared the accuracy of the simulation of the 4 rectangular grids and the sparse non rectangular discretization to investigate the deviation of estimated parameters from the true conductivities and the deviation of simulated hydraulic head from the true synthetic field. We concluded that to keep the model error low a reliable parameterization along with a rectangular grid of high resolution should be used. Alternatively a sparse non rectangular spatial discretization with a unique parameter for each cell can keep the error small and is more advantageous in the applications that require simulation speed.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Long term persistence and uncertainty on the long term, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, Vienna, 05619, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35532.82567, European Geosciences Union, 2007.
Today hydrologic research and modeling depends largely on climatological inputs, whose physical and statistical behavior are the subject of many debates in the scientific community. A relevant ongoing discussion is focused on long-term persistence (LTP), a natural behavior identified in several studies of instrumental and proxy hydroclimatic time series, which nevertheless is neglected in some climatological studies. LTP may reflect a long-term variability of several factors and, thus, can support a more complete physical understanding and uncertainty characterization of climate. The implications of LTP in hydroclimatic research, especially in statistical questions and problems, may be substantial, but appear to be not fully understood or recognized. To offer insights on these implications, we demonstrate using analytical methods that the characteristics of temperature series, which appear to be compatible with the LTP hypothesis, imply a dramatic increase of uncertainty in statistical estimation and reduction of significance in statistical testing, in comparison with classical statistics. Therefore, we maintain that statistical analysis in hydroclimatic research should be revisited, in order not to derive misleading results, and simultaneously that merely statistical arguments do not suffice to verify or falsify the LTP (or another) climatic hypothesis.
Related works:
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35532.82567
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Clarke, R. T., On the (mis)use of statistical methods in hydro-climatological research, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55(2), 139–144, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, A stochastic methodological framework for uncertainty assessment of hydroclimatic predictions, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, Vienna, 06026, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16029.31202, European Geosciences Union, 2007.
In statistical terms, the climatic uncertainty is the result of at least two factors, the climatic variability and the uncertainty of parameter estimation. Uncertainty is typically estimated using classical statistical methodologies that rely on a time independence hypothesis. However, climatic processes are not time independent but, as evidenced from accumulating observations from instrumental and paleoclimatic time series, exhibit long-range dependence, also known as the Hurst phenomenon or scaling behaviour. A methodology comprising analytical and Monte Carlo techniques is developed to determine uncertainty limits for the nontrivial scaling case. It is shown that, under the scaling hypothesis, the uncertainty limits are much wider than in classical statistics. Also, due to time dependence, the uncertainty limits of future are influenced by the available observations of the past. The methodology is tested and verified using a long instrumental meteorological record, the mean annual temperature at Berlin. It is demonstrated that the developed methodology provides reasonable uncertainty estimates whereas classical statistical uncertainty bands are too narrow. Furthermore, the framework is applied with temperature, rainfall and runoff data from a catchment in Greece, for which data exist for about a century. The uncertainty limits are then compared to deterministic projections up to 2050, obtained for several scenarios from several climatic models combined with a hydrological model. It is obtained that climatic model outputs for rainfall and the resulting runoff do not display significant future changes as the projected time series lie well within uncertainty limits assuming stable climatic conditions along with a scaling behaviour.
Related works:
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S.M. Papalexiou, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Scaling properties of fine resolution point rainfall and inferences for its stochastic modelling, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, Vienna, 11253, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26095.64167, European Geosciences Union, 2007.
The well-known data set of the University of Iowa comprising fine temporal resolution measurements of seven storm events is analysed. Scaling behaviours are observed both in state and in time. Utilizing these behaviours, it is concluded that a single and rather simple stochastic model can represent all rainfall events and all rich patterns appearing in each of the separate events making them look very different one another. From a practical view point, such a model is characterized by distribution tails decreasing slowly (in an asymptotic power-type law) with rainfall intensity, as well as by high autocorrelation at fine time scales, decreasing slowly (again in an asymptotic power-type law) with lag. Such a distributional form can produce enormously high rainfall intensities at times and such an autocorrelation form can produce hugely different patterns among different events. Both these behaviours are just opposite to the more familiar processes resembling Gaussian white noise, which would produce very "stable" events with infrequent high intensities. In this respect, both high distribution tails and high autocorrelation tails can be viewed as properties enhancing randomness and uncertainty, or entropy.
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I. Nalbantis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the use and misuse of semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models, XXIV General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Perugia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14351.59044, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2007.
Recent advances in hydrological modelling have led to a variety of complex, distributed or semi-distributed schemes, aiming to describe the heterogeneity of physical processes across a river basin. These are useful for operational purposes, such as design of large hydraulic structures, sustainable management of water resources and flood forecasting. However, due to the large number of parameters involved and the need for extended measurements, a robust calibration, which ensures a satisfactory predictive capacity as well as a physical interpretation of parameters, is a very difficult task. Hence, the applicability of such models in real-world studies, employed by practitioners with moderate hydrological knowledge, is at least questionable. The paper aims to reveal some critical issues, regarding the entire procedure of selecting, configuring and fitting a hydrological model. These are discussed on the basis of four classification criteria: the expertise level of the user, the representation of processes, the parameterization concept and the calibration strategy. An inexperienced user focuses on just finding a good fitting between model outputs and observations, usually by activating more parameters than are supported by the data. In contrast, an expert hydrologist wishes to explain the entire spectrum of model results, giving emphasis on the reasonable representation of the processes and the consistency of the all output variables, even those not controlled by the calibration (e.g. real evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater storage fluctuation, etc.). In terms of the processes representation, modelling approaches that are devised for uniform, undisturbed basins are misused if applied on complex systems, with multiple human interventions. The next criterion refers to the parameterization procedure. Some approaches assign parameter values on the basis of the schemati zation, i.e. the spatial discretization of the system under study (e.g. the sub-basins), thus leading to schemes with too many degrees of freedom, suffering from the well-known "curse of dimensionality". On the other hand, more intelligent models assume different levels of parameterization and schematization, employing the concept of a hydrological response unit. Thus, they significantly reduce the number of control parameters, also ensuring consistency with the physical characteristics of the system under study. Finally, one may classify the calibration strategies from manual, one-criterion fitting to sophisticated automatic optimization methods, using evolutionary algorithms and multiple fitting criteria, both statistical (based on measurements) and empirical (based on the hydrological experience). The above spectrum of modelling options is explored by selecting representative cases which reveal problems of everyday hydrological practice. The test area is the Boeoticos Kephisos basin, Greece, where a conjunctive simulation model is employed to describe the surface and groundwater hydrological processes as well as the water management practices.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Georgakakos, Lessons from the long flow records of the Nile: determinism vs indeterminism and maximum entropy, 20 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences, Rhodes, Greece, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10996.14727, 2006.
Three long records of the Nile River are analyzed. The first is the 131-year long contemporary record of monthly flows at Aswan (1870-2001). The other two are the records of annual maximum and minimum water levels from the Roda Nilometer for an 813-year period (640-1452). These records compose the longest instrumental data set available worldwide and their importance in understanding and modelling hydroclimatic behaviours is obvious. Spectral and chaotic dynamical analyses of all records do not provide clear evidence of deterministic signatures except for the obvious annual periodicity. Stochastic analysis suggests that all records have virtually identical long-term behaviour characterized by long-range dependence with Hurst coefficient around 0.85 both on annual and monthly basis. Notably, the long term behaviour departs from simple scaling in a manner that implies uncertainty on large time scales even higher than that of simple scaling, which is known to be already very high compared to typical short-range dependence processes. An explanation of the observed long-term behaviour is sought based on the principle of maximum entropy. Maximization of entropy both on local and global temporal setting produces a dependence structure that is asymptotically (i.e. for large time scales) scaling and seems to be in accordance with the observed behaviour of the Nile records.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/841/1/documents/2006RhodesNile.pdf (593 KB)
Z. Theocharis, C. Memos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Improvement of wave height forecast in deep and intermediate waters with the use of stochastic methods, 13th WISE Annual Meeting, Venice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18545.89448, Waves In Shallow Environments (WISE) group, 2006.
In recent years, data assimilation and artificial neural network techniques have been used in a number of wave height forecast improvement efforts. In this work we present the application of linear and non-linear stochastic techniques to show that WAM background errors can be reasonably predicted by using a limited number of buoy observations. Re-run of the wave model is not required. The first assessment, conducted in the Aegean Sea, refers to the improvement of the significant wave height prediction in deep water. The results were checked against four pilot-study monitoring stations. The assessment had a two-fold scope. First, a study conducted in a time domain fashion using four stochastic models whose explanatory variables are the WAM prediction and the measured wave height at previous steps. Two bivariate linear models, a trivariate linear model and two versions of a non-linear bivariate model were used and resulted in a significant forecast improvement, irrespectively of the application time period and of the location of the prediction. The coefficients of determination increased from approximately 0.7 (WAM) to over 0.9, suggesting that this method may be suitable for operational use. The second part of the application consists of a space-wise study including spatial stochastic modeling and wave information transfer aiming at expanding the improvement described above in space and especially in coastal regions. We found that wind information can help to improve the said prediction in time and space without using measurements or satellite observations, except for a calibration period. The applied stochastic methods show a somehow limited but steady improvement. To avoid the Aegean Sea complexity and peculiarity, further examination was conducted in two locations of the Indian Ocean. A non linear transformation in the stochastic models which is related to the swell content optimizes the improvement of the wave height prediction in intermediate waters using the offshore measurement. The improvement of the wave height prediction is reaching high coefficients of determination (~0.9).
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D. Koutsoyiannis, H. Yao, and A. Georgakakos, Multiyear behaviour and monthly simulation and forecasting of the Nile River flow, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 05046, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33645.38888, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
Multiyear persistence of droughts is a typical natural behaviour that cannot be modelled by typical stochastic or deterministic approaches. As this persistence is closely related to the Hurst (or scaling) behaviour, a stochastic approach to represent multiyear persistence of droughts should also reproduce the Hurst phenomenon. An advanced, yet simple, stochastic methodology, is proposed based on the concept of maximum entropy that is able to represent multiyear persistence. The approach can be used to generate long-term simulations or shorter-term forecasts, and is demonstrated for the Nile River, the persistence behaviour of which motivated the discovery of the Hurst phenomenon. The analysis and demonstrations use the Nile flow record, the longest available flow record worldwide. The stochastic methodology is also compared with a chaotic model and an artificial neural network model developed using the same flow record.
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Modelling a karstic aquifer with a mixed flow equation, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 03970, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13512.72960, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
The flow in karstic conduits is well known to be non laminar. For that reason the Darcy-Weisbach, or other non linear, equation is often used for modelling karstic aquifers. However the flow in the conduit system is not always pressurized. During the dry season the flow in some of the conduits may be conducted with free surface conditions. In this case a formula derived from open channel hydraulics may be more suitable for modelling the karstic aquifer. A mixed flow equation that is suitable for both pressure flow and free surface flow is presented in this study along with a case study in the intensively karstified aquifer of Bregava spring in Bosnia. The case study showed that the mixed equation improved significantly the model performance especially as far as the simulated water level is concerned.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.13512.72960
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Dong, G.-M., L.-C. Shu, J. Tian and Y.-F. Ji, Numerical model of groundwater flow in karst underground river system, southwestern China, Jilin Daxue Xuebao (Diqiu Kexue Ban)/Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition), 41 (4), 1136-1143+1156, 2011. |
E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Subsurface flow simulation with model coupling, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 02551, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23579.05924, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
The powerful modern computer systems have enabled use of mathematical tools, such as optimisation procedures, that are computationally demanding. Nevertheless, even the fast modern systems have the need for elegant modeling to avoid extreme computation times during model calibration. The subsurface hydrology models are well known to be very time consuming and for that reason the modeler faces the dilemma to select between dense (good spatial representation) and sparse discretisation (low calculation time). The MODFLOW is considered as a standard ground water model and it is based on the finite differences method. The rectangular grid that is imposed by this method encumbers significantly the compromise between speed and representation. The 3dkflow ground water flow model is based on the integrated finite differences method and discretises the flow domain using large non rectangular cells. The model is very fast and for that reason can be coupled easily with a global optimisation algorithm but it has the disadvantage that it needs as prior information the shape of the equipotential lines. The coupling of these two models has been proved to be very advantageous both in calibration and in application stages. The MODFLOW is used with a dense grid and a rough estimation of aquifer hydraulic parameters to simulate water flow and obtain the equipotentials. Hereupon the 3dkflow is used in conjunction with shuffled complex evolution algorithm to obtain reliable parameter estimates. These estimates may be subsequently used either with MODFLOW (solute transport, local impacts due to pumping, etc.) or 3dkflow (stochastic forecast, water management decision programs, etc.) depending on the application type.
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K. Georgakakos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: Methodological framework and a case study in Greece, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 08065, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29975.37284, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
A stochastic framework for climatic variability and uncertainty is presented, based on the following lines: (1) a climatic variable is not a parameter constant in time but rather a variable representing the long-term (e.g. 30-year) time average of a certain natural process, defined on a fine scale; (2) the evolution of climate is represented as a stochastic process; (3) the distributional parameters of the process, marginal and dependence, are estimated from an available sample by statistical methods; (4) the climatic uncertainty is the result of at least two factors, the climatic variability and the uncertainty of parameter estimation; (5) a climatic process exhibits a scaling behaviour, also known as long-range dependence or the Hurst phenomenon; (6) due to this dependence, the uncertainty limits of future are influenced by the available observations of the past. The last two lines differ from classical statistical considerations and produce uncertainty limits that eventually are much wider than those of classical statistics. A combination of analytical and Monte Carlo methods is developed to determine uncertainty limits for the nontrivial scaling case. The framework developed is applied with temperature, rainfall and runoff data from a catchment in Greece, for which data exist for about a century. The uncertainty limits are then compared to deterministic projections up to 2050, obtained for several scenarios from several climatic models combined with a hydrologic model.
Related works:
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29975.37284
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Yimere, A., and E. Assefa, Assessment of the water-energy nexus under future climate change in the Nile river basin, Climate, 9(5), 84, doi:10.3390/cli9050084, 2021. |
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Karavokiros, Linking hydroinformatics tools towards integrated water resource systems analysis, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 02096, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26619.92966, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
The management of complex water resource systems requires system-wide decision-making and control, to fulfil multiple and often contradictory water uses and constraints, maximize benefits and simultaneously minimize risks or negative impacts. The rapidly developing area of hydroinformatics provides a variety of methodologies and tools that are suitable to solve specific computational problems and demands an integrated framework of model co-operation and linking. A holistic water resource systems analysis framework is presented, comprising conceptual and stochastic hydrological models, hydrosystem simulation models, and algorithms for both linear and non-linear optimization. The key concepts are the formulation of parsimonious structures that are consistent with the available data, the conjunctive representation of physical and man-made processes, the quantification of uncertainties and risks, the faithful description of system dynamics, and the use of optimization to provide rational results within multiple modelling scales. The hydrosystem schematization is based on a network-type representation of real-world components, including both physical (basins, rivers, aquifers, etc.) and artificial ones (reservoirs, aqueducts, boreholes, demand points, etc.). Hydrological inflows are synthetically generated, through a multivariate stochastic simulation scheme that preserves all essential statistical properties as well as the time- and space-correlations across different time scales. Hydrosystem operation is represented through a low-dimensional approach, based on generalized parametric rules, which are assigned to the main hydraulic controls. All water resource management aspects, including technical, economical and environmental data are effectively handled through a generalized graph optimization approach, which simultaneously preserves a detailed description of the related processes and computational efficiency. A global optimization approach, also implemented on a multiobjective basis, is used to provide suitable management policies and support decisions. Besides, the stochastic representation of all hydrosystem fluxes enables the assessment of results on a reliability basis.
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A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, E. Rozos, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Control of uncertainty in complex hydrological models via appropriate schematization, parameterization and calibration, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 02181, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28297.65124, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
The recent expansion of complex, distributed modelling schemes results in significant increase of computational effort, thus making the traditional parameter estimation problem extremely difficult to handle. Recent advances provide a variety of mathematical techniques to quantify the uncertainty of model predictions. Despite their different theoretical background, such approaches aim to discover "promising" trajectories of the model outputs that correspond to multiple, "behavioural" parameter sets, rather than a single "global optimal" one. Yet, their application indicates that it is not unusual the case where model predictive uncertainty is comparable to the typical statistical uncertainty of the measured outputs, thus making the model validity at least questionable. Uncertainty is due to multiple sources that are interacted in a chaotic manner. Some of them are "inherent" and therefore unavoidable, as they are related to the complexity of physical processes, necessarily represented through simplified hypotheses about the watershed behaviour. Other sources are though controllable via appropriate schematization, parameterization and calibration. This involves adaptation of the principle of parsimony, appropriate distributed models and incorporation of hydrological experience within the parameter estimation procedure. The above issues are discussed on the basis of a conjunctive modelling scheme, fitted to two complex hydrosystems of Greece. A parsimonious structure is made possible by spatial analysis that is consistent with the available data and the operational requirements regarding water management, and the correspondence of model parameters to the "broad" physical characteristics of each system. Within the calibration strategy, the key concept is to exploit any type of knowledge, including systematic measurements as well as additional information about non-measured model outputs, in a multi-response optimization framework. The entire approach contributes to a significant reduction of uncertainties, as indicated by successful validation results.
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A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, S. Kozanis, A. Christofides, A. Koukouvinos, E. Rozos, N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, K. Noutsopoulos, E. Romas, L. Kaliakatsos, A. Andreadakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The ODYSSEUS project: Developing an advanced software system for the analysis and management of water resource systems, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2006, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8, Vienna, 03910, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24942.20805, European Geosciences Union, 2006.
The ODYSSEUS project (from the Greek acronym of its full title "Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System") aims at providing support to decision-makers towards integrated water resource management. The end-product comprises a system of co-operating software applications, suitable to handle a wide spectrum of water resources problems. The key methodological concepts are the holistic modelling approach, through the conjunctive representation of processes regarding water quantity and quality, man-made interventions, the parsimony of both input data requirements and system parameterization, the assessment of uncertainties and risks, and the extended use of optimization both for modelling (within various scales) and derivation of management policies. The core of the system is a relational database, named HYDRIA, for storing hydrosystem information; this includes geographical data, raw and processed time series, characteristics of measuring stations and facilities, and a variety of economic, environmental and water quality issues. The software architecture comprises various modules. HYDROGNOMON supports data retrieval, processing and visualization, and performs a variety of time series analysis tasks. HYDROGEIOS integrates a conjunctive hydrological model within a systems-oriented water management scheme, which estimates the available water resources at characteristic sites of the river basin and at the underlying aquifer. HYDRONOMEAS is the hydrosystem control module and locates optimal operation policies that minimize the risk and cost of decision-making. Additional modules are employed to prepare input data. DIPSOS estimates water needs for various uses (water supply, irrigation, industry, etc.), whereas RYPOS estimates pollutant loads from point and non-point sources, at a river basin scale. A last category comprises post-processing modules, for evaluating the proposed management policies by means of economical efficiency and water quality requirements. The latter include sophisticated models that estimate the space and time variation of specific pollutants within rivers (HERIDANOS) and lakes (LERNE), as well as simplified versions of them to be used within the hydrosystem simulation scheme. An interactive framework enables the exchange of data between the various modules, either off-line (through the database) or on-line, via appropriate design of common information structures. The whole system is in the final phase of its development and parts of it have been already tested in operational applications, by water authorities, organizations and consulting companies.
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D. Zarris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimating suspended sediment yield based on reservoir hydrographic survey, rating relationships and distributed hydrological modelling, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
Acheloos River, located in Western Greece, is discharging at Kremasta Reservoir (catchment 1760 km2). The sediment deposits in the reservoir were measured during the year 1998 and the mean annual sediment discharge was calculated equal to 68 kg/s. The Avlaki gauging station, run by the Public Power Corporation (PPC) of Greece, is located a few kilometers upstream of the reservoir's entrance (catchment 1358 km2). Sediment discharge measurements were taken during 1966-1970 whereas daily river stages were recorded with frequent intervals without measurements. A distributed hydrologic model (the MIKE SHE model) was applied to fill in the periods with missing mean daily discharges from 1966 to 1998. Two alternative rating curves were deduced from the sediment discharge measurements, the first one with a unique power law expression for the whole set of discharges and the second with different power relations for two discharge classes above and below a threshold roughly corresponding to the bankfull discharge. It is assumed that the rating relationships are valid for the whole time span of the simulation since the catchment has undergone insignificant land use changes. The application of the first rating curve to the mean daily discharge yields mean annual sediment discharge equal to 13.5 kg/s, whereas the application of the different power relations for two discharge classes yields a corresponding value of 73.3 kg/s. The first equation seriously underestimates the sediment discharge whereas the second one results in an estimate close to that of hydrographic survey. This indicates that sediment rating curves can give good estimates if applied carefully, otherwise can result in serious inaccuracies.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/725/1/documents/2005EGUSuspSedimentsAbs.pdf (29 KB)
S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A probabilistic approach to the concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation, 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms, Rethymnon, Crete, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15714.73927, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
The concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is based on the assumptions that (a) there exists an upper physical limit of the precipitation depth over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year, and (b) that this limit can be estimated based on deterministic considerations. The most representative and widespread estimation method of PMP is the so called moisture maximization method. This method maximizes observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would hypothetically rise up to a high value that is regarded as an upper limit and is estimated from historical records of dew points. In this paper, it is argued that fundamental aspects of the method may be flawed or illogical. Furthermore, historical time series of dew points and "constructed" time series of maximized precipitation depths (according to the moisture maximization method) are analyzed. The analyses do not provide any evidence of an upper bound either in atmospheric moisture or maximized precipitation depth. Therefore, it is argued that a probabilistic approach is more consistent to natural behaviour and provides better grounds for estimating extreme precipitation values for design purposes.
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A. Efstratiadis, A. Tegos, I. Nalbantis, E. Rozos, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, S.M. Papalexiou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrogeios, an integrated model for simulating complex hydrographic networks - A case study to West Thessaly region, 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms, Rethymnon, Crete, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25781.06881, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
An integrated scheme, comprising a conjunctive hydrological model and a systems oriented management model, was developed, based on a semi-distributed approach. Geographical input data include the river network, the sub-basins upstream of each river node and the aquifer dicretization in the form of groundwater cells of arbitrary geometry. Additional layers of distributed geographical information, such as geology, land cover and terrain slope, are used to define the hydrological response units. Various modules are combined to represent the main processes at the water basin such as, soil moisture, groundwater, flood routing and water management models. Model outputs include river discharges, spring flows, groundwater levels and water abstractions. The model can be implemented in daily and monthly basis. A case study to the West Thessaly region performed. The discharges of five hydrometric stations and the water levels of eight boreholes were used simultaneously for model calibration. The implementation of the model to the certain region demonstrated satisfactory agreement between the observed and the simulated data.
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Application of the Integrated Finite Difference Method in groundwater flow, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 00579, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30185.08803, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
The massive introduction of computer facilities to hydrogeology has rendered the use of numerical methods for solving partial differential equations applicable to operational problems. The dominant methods used today are the Finite Difference Method (FDM), the Finite Element Method (FEM), the Finite Volume Method (FVM) and the Boundary Element Method (BEM) with FDM and FEM being the most widely used in hydrogeologic modelling. FDM appears to have greater applicability maybe as a result of the simplicity of discretisation grid construction and of solution procedure that it uses. On the other hand, the poor capacity of FDM in representation of complex geometry due to prescript use of rectangular discretisation makes in some cases inevitable the application of FEM or BEM. The FVM is very similar to FDM and has the same advantages and disadvantages. When hydrogeologic simulation is embedded in optimisation, such as in water resource management problems or in parameter estimation (inverse) problems, all these methods are extremely time consuming due to the required many repetitions. In such cases, the so called Integrated Finite Difference Method (IFDM) that appeared earlier in the bibliography and shares the same theory with FVM may be a better candidate. This method can be applied successfully with non rectangular discretisation with a small number of cells. A set of theoretical studies that demonstrates that IFDM can achieve reliable solutions even with a very sparse discretisation is presented.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30185.08803
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Dakowicz, M., and C.M. Gold, Finite difference method runoff modelling using Voronoi cells, Proceedings, 5th ISPRS Workshop on Dynamic and Multi-dimensional GIS, Urumchi, China, 55-60, 2007. |
| 2. | Aghbelagh, Y. B., and J. Yang, Effect of graphite zone in the formation of unconformity-related uranium deposits: insights from reactive mass transport modeling, Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 10.1016/j.gexplo.2014.01.020, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Similarities and scaling of extreme rainfall worldwide (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 03775, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14928.30720, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
Long records of annual maximum daily rainfall from 169 stations from Europe and the USA, with lengths exceeding 100 years, are statistically analyzed. It is observed that several dimensionless statistics of the annual maximum series are virtually constant worldwide, except for an error that can be attributed to a pure statistical sampling effect. Thus, if all series are standardized by their mean, they can be described by practically the same statistical law. From the study of the compound series from all stations with length 17922 station-years it becomes clear that this extreme value law is of type II rather than type I (Gumbel) as thought before. This implies a powertype (Pareto) parent distribution, which has scaling properties for low probabilities of exceedence. Two major questions arise from this research: (1) Why the statistical law of standardized extreme rainfall is virtually the same over a wide range of geographical areas and climates? (2) Why is this law power-type? The second question is answered using the principle of maximum entropy. Specifically, it is shown that this principle, which corresponds to maximum uncertainty, results in a Pareto type distribution, if the coefficient of variation is high, and also predicts the scaling exponent, which is verified by the historical data.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The long-range dependence of hydrological processes as a result of the maximum entropy principle, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 03779, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11572.86402, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
It is well known that the principle of maximum entropy (ME), when applied to a Gaussian stochastic process with known lag one autocorrelation, results in Markovian (short-range) dependence, if the maximization is done in terms of the conditional entropy on a single time scale. However, if the maximization is done on multiple time scales simultaneously, the application of the ME principle becomes more complicated and the results more interesting. Specifically, it is shown that this principle, under the general conditions that the process autocorrelation should be mathematically feasible and physically reasonable and that all time scales are of equal importance, results in long-range dependence or the Hurst phenomenon, which is characterised by scaling in time. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series, validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes, given that entropy is a measure of uncertainty.
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C. Derzekos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Onof, A new randomised Poisson cluster model for rainfall in time, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 07236, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32544.38403, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
The analysis and simulation of rainfall time series on fine time scales require the use of special types of stochastic models. This necessity is justified by the intermittent character of rainfall at these time scales. Among the successful model types are point process models. The purpose of the present study is to examine the behaviour of a new randomized Poisson cluster model for rainfall in time. The new model is free to develop a negative or positive correlation between storm intensity and duration. Two historical time series are used as case studies. The first one is from Denver airport (1949-1976), and the second is the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) station data (1994-2003). The complexity of the mathematical model, the introduction of non-analytical relations and the presence of many local optima require the use of a direct search ("global") optimization method. A novel optimization algorithm is developed, while a decomposition approach results in the introduction of several simplifications to the optimization procedure. Additionally, qualitative, semi empirical criteria are developed, to roughly estimate in advance the model efficiency. In the Denver case, the new model achieves a 54% improvement in preserving historical rainfall statistics, in comparison with those of the Random Bartlett-Lewis Model (RBLM). The simulation results (statistics of synthetic series) confirm this conclusion. In the case of the Athens data, the new model also yields a better approximation of the historical statistics (in comparison to the RBLM). However, in simulation mode, it did not provide any improvement due to an unacceptable ratio of negative parameter values. As a result, RBLM is preferable to the new model in the Athens case.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The scaling properties in the distribution of hydrological variables as a result of the maximum entropy principle (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 03781, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25833.49769, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
It is well known that the principle of maximum entropy (ME), when applied to the probability distribution of a random variable with known mean and variance, results in the normal distribution. If the variable is non-negative, as happens with hydrological variables such as rainfall and runoff, the same principle results in the truncated normal distribution. Mathematically, this distribution can have a coefficient of variation ranging from zero to unity, with the upper bound corresponding to the exponential distribution. At fine time scales, rainfall and runoff have coefficients of variations higher than one, so the classical entropy approach, constrained by known mean and variance, is not applicable. However, a generalization of entropy (specifically the use of the concept of nonextensive entropy) allows the application of the ME principle even in such cases and results in power-type distributions, which for low probabilities of exceedence have scaling properties. Thus, the ME principle can be used to infer the type of the distribution of a hydrological variable, i.e. whether it has scaling properties or not, and to quantify the scaling exponent using a simple indicator such as the coefficient of variation. This theoretical framework is validated with several realworld examples concerning rainfall, runoff and temperature data at several time scales. Given that entropy is a measure of uncertainty, the applicability of the ME principle to the distribution of hydrological variables emphasizes the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.
Related works:
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25833.49769
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Guo, P., W. Sun and Y. Wang, Equilibrium and optimal strategies to join a queue with partial information on service times, European Journal of Operational Research, DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.04.011, 2011. |
| 2. | Poveda, G., and H.D. Salas, Statistical scaling, Shannon entropy, and generalized space-time q-entropy of rainfall fields in tropical South America, Chaos, 25 (7), art. no. 075409, 10.1063/1.4922595, 2015. |
S. Kozanis, A. Christofides, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrognomon - A hydrological data management and processing software tool, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 04644, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34222.10561, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
Hydrognomon is a software tool for the management and analysis of hydrological data. It is built on a standard Windows platform based on client-server architecture; a database server is holding hydrological data whereas several workstations are executing Hydrognomon, sharing common data. Data retrieval, processing and visualisation are supported by a multilingual Graphical User Interface. Data management is based on geographical organisation to entities such as measuring stations, river basins, and reservoirs. Each entity may possess time series, physical properties, calculation parameters, multimedia content, etc. The main part of hydrological data analysis consists of time series processing applications, such as time step aggregation and regularisation, interpolation, regression analysis and filling in of missing values, consistency tests, data filtering, graphical and tabular visualisation of time series, etc. The program supports also specific hydrological applications, including evapotranspiration modelling, stage-discharge analysis, homogeneity tests, water balance methods, etc. The statistical module provides tools for sampling analysis, distribution functions, statistical forecast, Monte-Carlo simulation, analysis of extreme events and construction of intensity-duration-frequency curves. A final module is a lumped hydrological model, with alternative configurations, also supported by automatic calibration facilities. Hydrognomon is operationally used by the largest water organisation as well as technical corporations in Greece.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34222.10561
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Zarris, D., Analysis of the environmental flow requirement incorporating the effective discharge concept, Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Environmental Hydraulics, Athens, 1125–1130, International Association of Hydraulic Research, National Technical University of Athens, 2010. |
| 2. | Puricelli, M., Update and analysis of intensity - duration - frequency curves for Balcarce, Buenos Aires province, Argentina, Revista de Geología Aplicada a la Ingeniería y al Ambiente, 32, 61-70, 2014. |
| 3. | Radevski, I., S. Gorin, O. Dimitrovska, I. Milevski, B. Apostolovska-Toshevska, M. Taleska, and V. Zlatanoski, Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia), Acta Carsologica, 45(3), 253-262, doi:10.3986/ac.v45i3.1544, 2016. |
| 4. | #Mineo, C., S. Sebastianelli, L. Marinucci, and F. Russo, Assessment of the watershed DEM mesh size influence on a large dam design hydrograph, AIP Conference Proceedings, 1863, 470005, doi:10.1063/1.4992636, 2017. |
| 5. | #Matingo, T., W. Gumindoga, and H. Makurira, Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin, Proc. IAHS, 378, 59–65, doi:10.5194/piahs-378-59-2018, 2018. |
A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydronomeas: A water resources planning and management software system, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 04675, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29608.37128, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
Hydronomeas is an operational software tool for the management of complex water resource systems. It is suitable to a wide range of hydrosystems, incorporating numerous physical, operational, administrative and environmental aspects of integrated river basin management. The mathematical framework follows the parameterisation-simulation-optimisation scheme; simulation is applied to faithfully represent the system operation, expressed in the form of parametric management rules, whereas optimisation is applied to derive the optimal management policy, which simultaneously minimises the risk and cost of decision-making. Hydrological inflows are synthetically generated, thus providing stochastic predictions for all system outputs (reservoir storages and withdrawals). Real economic criteria in addition to virtual costs are appropriately assigned to preserve the physical constraints and water use priorities, ensuring also the lowest-energy transportation path of water from the sources to the consumption. Hydronomeas is developed to operate within the framework of a decision support system, with a graphical user interface allowing users to create any configuration of hydrosystems consisting of reservoirs, groundwater facilities, pumping and hydropower stations, aqueduct networks, demand points, etc. Data structures are controlled by a database management module, whereas simulation is accompanied by a visualisation module. Results, including the optimal operating rule for each component of the system, the failure probability for each water use, the water and energy balance, as well as prediction curves for all hydrosystem fluxes, are presented in graphical plots. Saved scenarios can also be retrieved in the form of printable reports, which are automatically generated through the database management module. From year 2000, Hydronomeas is the central supporting tool of the Athens Water Supply and Sewage Company (EYDAP).
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29608.37128
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Rozos, E., An assessment of the operational freeware management tools for multi-reservoir systems, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, ws2018169, doi:10.2166/ws.2018.169, 2018. |
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The multiobjective evolutionary annealing-simplex method and its application in calibrating hydrological models, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 04593, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32963.81446, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
Optimisation problems related to water resources are, by nature, multiobjective, even if traditionally handled as single-objective. Current advances in hydrological modelling employ multiobjective approaches to treat the well-known problem of "equifinality", thus assessing the uncertainties related to the parameter estimation procedure. However, computer tools generating Pareto-optimal solutions are still particularly time-consuming, especially in real-world applications, with many parameters and many fitting criteria. Moreover, the mathematical concept of Pareto optimality often leads to solutions that are far away from an acceptable compromise between the conflicting objectives. Most multiobjective optimisation tools are adaptations of evolutionary algorithms. In multiobjective evolutionary optimisation two are the major goals: (a) guiding the search towards the Pareto-optimal front, and (b) generating a well-distributed set of nondominated solutions. Both are achieved through the fitness evaluation and selection procedures; using the fundamental principle of dominance, scalar fitness values are assigned to individuals, then evolved by employing the typical genetic operators (crossover, mutation). The multiobjective evolutionary annealing-simplex (MEAS) method is an innovative scheme, also comprising an evaluation phase and an evolution phase. The evaluation aims to assign a performance measure to each member of the population, which requires the comparison of all individuals against each other and against all criteria. A fitness strategy inspired from the strength-Pareto approach of Zitlzer and Thiele (IEEE Trans. Evol. Comp., 3(4), 1999), in addition to an extension of the definition of dominance, provides a large variety of discrete performance values. The population is guided towards a promising sub-region of the Pareto front (not the entire front), that contains representative trade-offs, among which the best-compromise may easily detected. The generation of solutions with extreme performance, i.e. too good against some criteria, too bad for the rest ones, is prohibited, by means of penalty functions. In this manner, the discrete fitness space is transformed to a continuous space, which may be explored through global search techniques. The latter (i.e., the evolution phase) is implemented through a set of combined deterministic and stochastic transition rules, most of them based on a simplex-evolving pattern. During evolution, the degree of randomness is controlled through an adaptive annealing cooling schedule, which automatically regulates the "temperature" of the system. The MEAS method was tested on a variety of benchmark functions taken from the literature, as well as on some challenging hydrological applications, formerly handled through weighted objective functions. The analysis indicate that the proposed algorithm locates good trade-offs among the conflicting objectives simultaneously being much more efficient if compared to other, well-established multiobjective evolutionary schemes.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32963.81446
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Rothfuss, Y., I. Braud, N. Le Moine, P. Biron, J.-L. Durand, M. Vauclin, and T. Bariac, Factors controlling the isotopic partitioning between soil evaporation and plant transpiration: assessment using a multi-objective calibration of SiSPAT-Isotope under controlled conditions, Journal of Hydrology, 442-443, 75-88, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.03.041, 2012. |
| 2. | Coron, L., V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx, On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation – a diagnostic approach on 20 mountainous catchments using three models of increasing complexity, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 727-746, doi:10.5194/hess-18-727-2014, 2014. |
| 3. | Magand, C., A. Ducharne, N. Le Moine, and P. Brigode, Parameter transferability under changing climate: case study with a land surface model in the Durance watershed, France, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7-8), 1408-1423, doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.993643, 2014. |
| 4. | Cordeiro, M. R. C., J. A. Vanrobaeys, and H. F. Wilson, Long-term weather, streamflow, and water chemistry datasets for hydrological modelling applications at the upper La Salle River watershed in Manitoba, Canada, Geoscience Data Journal, doi:10.1002/gdj3.67, 2019. |
| 5. | Monteil, C., F. Zaoui, N. Le Moine, and F. Hendrickx, Multi-objective calibration by combination of stochastic and gradient-like parameter generation rules – the caRamel algorithm, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3189-3209, 10.5194/hess-24-3189-2020, 2020. |
A. Efstratiadis, E. Rozos, A. Koukouvinos, I. Nalbantis, G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An integrated model for conjunctive simulation of hydrological processes and water resources management in river basins, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2005, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 7, Vienna, 03560, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27930.64960, European Geosciences Union, 2005.
In complex hydrosystems, where natural processes are significantly affected by human interventions, a holistic modelling concept is required, to ensure a more faithful representation of mechanisms and hence a rational water resource management. An integrated scheme, comprising a conjunctive (i.e., surface and groundwater) hydrological model and a systems-oriented management model, was developed, based on a semi-distributed approach. Geographical input data include the river network, the sub-basins upstream of each river node and the aquifer discretization in the form of groundwater cells of arbitrary geometry. Additional layers of distributed geographical information, such as geology, land cover and terrain slope, are used to define the hydrological response units (HRUs); the latter are spatial components that correspond to areas of homogenous hydrological characteristics. On the other hand, input data for artificial components include reservoirs, water abstraction facilities, aqueducts and demand points. Dynamic input data consist of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration series, given at a sub-basin scale, and target demand series. Targets refer not only to water needs but also to various water management constraints, such as the preservation of minimum flows across the river network. Various modules are combined to represent the key processes in the watershed, i.e. (a) a conceptual soil moisture accounting model, with different parameters assigned to each HRU; (b) a groundwater model, based on a modified finite-volume numerical method; (c) a routing model, that implements the water movement across the river network; and (d) a water management model, inspired from the graph theory, which estimates the optimal hydrosystem fluxes, satisfying both physical constraints and target priorities and simultaneously minimising costs. Model outputs include discharges through the river network, spring flows, groundwater levels and water abstractions. The calibration employs an automatic procedure, based on multiple error criteria and a robust global optimisation algorithm. The model was applied to a meso-scale (~2000 km2) watershed in Greece, characterised by a complex physical system (a karstified background, with extended losses to the sea) and conflicting water uses. 10-year monthly discharge series from seven gauging stations were used to evaluate the model performance. Extended analysis proved that the exploitation of spatially distributed input information, in addition to the usage of a reasonable number of control variables that are fitted to multiple observed responses, ensures more realistic model parameters, also reducing prediction uncertainty, in comparison to earlier (both fully conceptual and fully distributed) approaches. Moreover, the incorporation of the water resource management scheme within the hydrological simulator makes the model suitable for operational use.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The water resource management of Athens in the perspective of the Olympic Games, The Olympic Games Athens 2004 and the National Technical University of Athens, edited by K. Moutzouris, Athens, 17–27, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35480.39680, National Technical University of Athens, 2004.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/655/1/documents/2004HmerPolMhxDiaxYdrSystAthinas.pdf (384 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Alternative wastewater collection systems, Management of Urban Wastewater, edited by A. N. Angelakis, 21–25, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32124.95361, National Centre of Environment and Sustainable Development, Larisa, Greece, 2004.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/632/1/documents/2004AlternWastSystems.pdf (304 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Simple methods to generate time series with scaling behaviour (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2004, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 6, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29503.51362, European Geosciences Union, 2004.
The scaling behaviour has been detected in a large number of hydroclimatic series on annual and multiyear scales. This behaviour is equivalent to the Hurst phenomenon and, although it affects seriously planning and design of hydrosystems, is often ignored, mostly because it is regarded as difficult to handle. It is shown, however, that it can be reproduced easily in the synthesis of time series. In this respect, four simple methods, utilising and simultaneously highlighting different aspects of simple scaling processes, are discussed. The first method is deterministic and emphasises the fact that simple nonlinear dynamics may produce time series with erratic yet simple scaling behaviour. The second method, based on the weighted sum of three Markovian processes, underlines the multiple time-scale fluctuation origin of the Hurst phenomenon. The third method is based on the invariant properties of a scaling process through different time scales and uses disaggregation to progressively move from coarser to finer time scales. The fourth method utilises the power law form of the power spectrum of a simple scaling process and produces a scaling time series by filtering white noise through a symmetric moving average filter. In addition, it is shown that the last method is general enough to generate any kind of multiple cross-correlated stochastic processes with any autocorrelation structure or power spectrum, and can be extended to sub-annual time scales also reproducing seasonal characteristics of time series.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Climate change certainty versus climate uncertainty and inferences in hydrological studies and water resources management (solicited), European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2004, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 6, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12726.29764, European Geosciences Union, 2004.
Anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere and land uses certainly affect climate and hydrological responses in a cause-and-effect relationship. However, an accurate deterministic prediction of future hydro-climatic regimes, incorporating anthropogenic effects, may be infeasible. Obvious sources of uncertainty are the weaknesses of climatic and hydrological models. Besides, uncertainty may be also a structural and inevitable characteristic of the related processes, as the atmosphere and hydrological basins are inherently too complex systems. Quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic terms can be regarded as a more feasible alternative in comparison to the elimination of uncertainty. However, the quantification of (the increase of) uncertainty under future conditions, including anthropogenic effects, is hardly achievable at present. A small feasible step is the quantification of uncertainty under present and past conditions. This has been seriously underestimated and underrated so far. Climatic models describe a portion of natural variability and result in interannual variability that is commonly too weak. Hydrological models tend to smooth out variability of hydrological processes. Even probabilistic approaches based on classical statistical analyses of real world data hide some sources of variability and uncertainty, especially the ones related to the omnipresent long-term persistence of natural processes. The latter approaches, however, can be adapted towards making their estimations closer to reality, thus resulting in more accurate yet impressively higher estimates of uncertainty. These ideas and questions are illustrated by means of a case study dealing with hydrological modelling and water resources management in a Greek catchment.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12726.29764
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kim, B.-S., H.-S. Kim, and H.-S. Min, Hurst’s memory for chaotic, tree ring, and SOI series, Applied Mathematics, 5, 175-195, 2014. |
| 2. | Tatli, H., Detecting persistence of meteorological drought via the Hurst exponent, Meteorological Applications, 22(4), 763-769, doi:10.1002/met.1519, 2015. |
| 3. | Pal, S., S. Dutta, T. Nasrin, and S. Chattopadhyay, Hurst exponent approach through rescaled range analysis to study the time series of summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03338-6, 2020. |
Z. Theocharis, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Memos, and T. Soukissian, Improvement of the wave height real-time forecast in the Aegean Sea using stochastic methods, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2004, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 6, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31181.23520, European Geosciences Union, 2004.
Wave forecasting for the Aegean Sea in Eastern Mediterranean is accomplished today via the numerical model WAM, run by the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research in the framework of the Poseidon Operational System. Measurements from four pilot-study monitoring stations of the Aegean Sea showed a systematic underestimation of the significant wave height. The measurement stations are located in the open sea near the Athos peninsula and offshore of Lesvos, Mykonos and Santorini islands. To improve wave forecasting in this area, where peculiarities such as the complex shore-line and the numerous islets as well as the changeable nature of the wind field influence adversely WAM model predictive power, a set of stochastic models were examined. Specifically, linear and non-linear regression models, which take into account the time series of the significant wave height (measured and forecasted) were developed and tested. A preliminary exploratory research was performed using a simple one-parameter linear regression model with only one explanatory variable. This model did not bring any improvement in the coefficient of determination between WAM forecasts and measurements of the significant wave height. However, the forecast of the larger wave heights was improved for all stations and for all periods of the year. In addition, the negative bias of WAM forecasts was significantly reduced. The other multiregression models used include: a bivariate linear model whose explanatory variables are the WAM prediction of the current step and the measured height at a previous step; a trivariate linear model whose explanatory variables are the WAM prediction of the current step and the measured height of two previous steps; and a bivariate nonlinear model with explanatory variables same as in the corresponding linear model. All these models resulted in significant improvement of the coefficient of determination, which increased from approximately 0.7 to over 0.9 for all periods of application. Another important result is the fact that the forecast error was no longer systematic as in the case of the WAM model (underestimation). In addition, the application showed that the model parameters are almost invariable for all stations and periods of the year. Conclusively, it is shown that use of real time measurements in combination with stochastic methods, can improve significantly the WAM model forecasting capability in the Aegean Sea.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/605/1/documents/2004EGUWaveHeightAbs.pdf (7 KB)
P. Fytilas, D. Koutsoyiannis, and F. Napolitano, A case study of spatial-temporal rainfall disaggregation at the Tiber river basin, Italy, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11048.57604, European Geophysical Society, 2003.
Daily raingauges, which have been operational worldwide for some decades, offer a large amount of daily data but at the same time the length of available sub-daily series (e.g. hourly) is insufficient for most hydrological purposes. In this case, a disaggregation modelling framework has been proposed to disaggregate the historical data of daily raingauges into hourly series, this generates spatially and temporally consistent hourly rainfall series in several sites simultaneously, using the daily data at these sites and, in addition, any available historical hourly data at neighbouring sites. The disaggregation methodology, which involves the combination of several univariate and multivariate rainfall models operating at different time scales, has been implemented in a user-friendly software called MuDRain. The methodology and software, which were initially developed and applied in the UK, were used in a real world case in the Tiber river basin, Italy. The case study deals with the disaggregation of daily historical data of eight raingauges into hourly series for the period January 1994 - December 1999. The disaggregation was performed using hourly data of three of the raingauges and daily data from all eight. The effectiveness of the methodology was evaluated through tests and comparisons between the simulated series obtained by the disaggregation framework and the historical series available at other three of the eight raingauges. Comparisons showed that the methodology results in good preservation of important statistical properties of the rainfall process such as marginal moments, temporal and spatial correlations and proportions and lengths of dry intervals, and in addition, in a good reproduction of the actual hyetographs.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11048.57604
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Astutik, S., N. Iriawan and S. Suhartono, Hybrid state-space model and adjusting procedure based on Bayesian approaches for spatio-temporal rainfall disaggregation, ICSSBE 2012 - Proceedings, 2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering: "Empowering Decision Making with Statistical Sciences", art. no. 6396520, 24-27, 2012. |
| 2. | Astutik, S., N. Iriawan, G. Nair and S. Suhartono, Bayesian state space modeling for spatio-temporal rainfall disaggregation, International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 37 (7), 26-37, 2013. |
D. Zarris, E. Lykoudi, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. E. Poulos, Channel change and sediment movement after a major level drawdown at Kremasta reservoir, Western Greece, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.21953.76643, European Geophysical Society, 2003.
A major level drawdown of about 20 m, due to low inflows and reservoir operation, was experienced at the time interval between the hydrographic survey of the Kremasta reservoir (July 1999) and the collection of two sedimentary cores from the reservoir's invert (September 2001). The minimum reservoir level was recorded in December 2000. The sedimentary cores were taken at the Acheloos River mouth within a meandering reservoir section of about 2.3 km distance from each other. At the latter time, a significant channel change was observed at the upstream core cross section with respect to its configuration in July 1999. At the maximum level drawdown, this cross section was actually upstream of the reservoir and the surface of the deposited sediment was exposed while the downstream one was only marginally submerged. This change of the channel profile is attributed to a significant erosion of loose, fine grained, deposited sediment during the first winter intense floods around the time of the reservoirSs minimum level. The channel geometry changed completely and the vertical scour of the deposited sediments was at least 2 m. The eroded sediment was transported downstream to the reservoir's interior and re-deposited according to flow velocity regime. The downstream core is investigated for possible signs of deposition of the eroded sediment. Apart from the analysis of the recent reservoir drawdown, cores were also described and correlated using lithology and sedimentary structures. The sediment deposits are composed of poorly graded sands to low plasticity clays and the horizontal stratification implies major flood events, possibly associated with the historical drawdowns of the reservoir (e.g. silty sand on top of low plasticity clay). The above observations illustrate the dynamic behaviour of the reservoir siltation as a result of reservoir operation, intense flood events and incoming sediment load. The analyses of the sedimentary cores' lithological sections, can serve as a useful tool for reconstructing the siltation history of the Kremasta reservoir.
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A. Tsouni, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Contoes, N. Mamassis, and P. Elias, Application of satellite-based methods for estimating evapotranspiration in Thessalia plain, Greece, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3221.7840, European Geophysical Society, 2003.
Estimation of evapotranspiration using both meteorological ground-based measurements and satellite-derived information has been widely studied during the last few decades and various methods have been developed for this purpose. In our application, we estimated the regional daily actual evapotranspiration during the 2001 summer season (June-August) over Thessalia plain in Pinios river basin. It is an area of intensive agricultural activity. Satellite data were accounted for those days that were available. For this case study, two different methods were applied and compared to the conventional and well-known FAO Penman-Monteith method. Satellite data, adequately processed (radiometric calibration, sun illumination conditions correction and geometric correction), were used in conjunction with ground data from the three nearest meteorological stations. The methods, which were properly adapted, exploit surface temperature and surface albedo assessments, obtained respectively from the infrared channels 4-5 and the visible channels 1-2 of NOAA-AVHRR images. The first method requires daily mean surface temperatures, so NOAA-15 satellite images were used, while for the second one the average rate of surface temperature rise during the morning is required, so a combination of NOAA-14 and NOAA-15 satellite images was used. The results of the study are quite encouraging, especially for the first method. In the future we intend to combine the satellite-derived data (Tsurf, Albedo, NDVI) with detailed land-use and land-cover classification map based on high-resolution satellite data.
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A. Langousis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A stochastic methodology for generation of seasonal time series reproducing overyear scaling, Hydrofractals '03, An international conference on fractals in hydrosciences, Monte Verita, Ascona, Switzerland, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15242.88006, ETH Zurich, MIT, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 2003.
In generating synthetic time series of hydrologic processes at sub-annual scale it is important to preserve seasonal characteristics and short-term persistence. At the same time, it is equally important to preserve annual characteristics and over year scaling behaviour. This scaling behaviour, which is equivalent to the Hurst phenomenon, has been detected in a large number of hydroclimatic series and affects seriously planning and design of hydrosystems. However, when seasonal models are used, the preservation of annual characteristics and overyear scaling is a difficult task and is often ignored. Disaggregation techniques are the only way to produce synthetic series that are consistent with historical series in several time scales, from seasonal to multiyear, simultaneously. Such techniques involve two or more steps, where in the first step annual series are generated, which are subsequently disaggregated to finer scales. However, disaggregation involves several difficulties (e.g. in parameter estimation), inaccuracies and is a slow procedure. As an alternative, a new methodology is proposed that directly operates on seasonal time scale, avoiding disaggregation, and simultaneously preserves annual statistics and the scaling properties on overyear time scales thus respecting the Hurst phenomenon.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Hydrofractals '03, An international conference on fractals in hydrosciences, Monte Verita, Ascona, Switzerland, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13565.15848, ETH Zurich, MIT, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 2003.
It is demonstrated that a simple deterministic model in discrete time can capture the scaling behaviour of hydroclimatic processes at time scales coarser than annual. This toy model is based on a generalized "chaotic tent map", which may be considered as the compound result of a positive and a negative feedback mechanism, and involves two degrees of freedom. The model is not a realistic representation of a climatic system, but rather a radical simplification of real climatic dynamics. However, its simplicity enables easy implementation, even on a spreadsheet environment, and convenient experimentation. Application of the toy model gives traces that can resemble historical time series of hydroclimatic variables, such as temperature, rainfall and runoff. In particular, such traces exhibit scaling behaviour with a Hurst exponent greater than 0.5 and density function similar to that of observed time series. Moreover, application demonstrates that large-scale synthetic "climatic" fluctuations (like upward or downward trends) can emerge without any specific reason and their evolution is unpredictable, even when they are generated by this simple fully deterministic model with only two degrees of freedom. Obviously, however, the fact that such a simple model can generate time series that are realistic surrogates of real climatic series does not mean that a real climatic system involves that simple dynamics.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, On embedding dimensions and their use to detect deterministic chaos in hydrological processes, Hydrofractals '03, An international conference on fractals in hydrosciences, Monte Verita, Ascona, Switzerland, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16920.60165, ETH Zurich, MIT, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 2003.
Studies of dynamical systems have demonstrated that simple nonlinear systems with low-dimensional deterministic dynamics may yield irregular trajectories with random appearance. This led many to investigate the inverse, i.e. to try to detect the presence of low dimensional determinism in time series formerly regarded as outcomes of stochastic systems. A typical method used in many such investigations is time delay embedding and correlation dimension. This method, however, may be misleading if applied to hydrological time series. Specifically, it is shown that specific peculiarities of hydrological processes on fine time scales, such as asymmetric, J-shaped distribution functions, intermittency, and high autocorrelations, are synergistic factors that can lead to misleading conclusions regarding presence of (low-dimensional) deterministic chaos. In addition, the required size to accurately estimate chaotic descriptors of hydrological processes is quantified by statistical reasoning and it is shown that such a size is not met in hydrological records. All these arguments are demonstrated using appropriately synthesized theoretical examples. Finally, in light of the theoretical analyses and arguments, typical real-world hydrometeorological time series, such as relative humidity, rainfall, and runoff, are explored and none of them is found to indicate the presence of low-dimensional chaos.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16920.60165
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Howard, D., and M.A. Edwards, Enhancing chance discovery: Dimensions, strategies and tools, Knowledge-Based Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems, Pt 2, 3214, 793-799, 2004. |
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, K. Hadjibiros, A. Andreadakis, A. Stamou, A. Katsiri, G.-F. Sargentis, and A. Christofides, A multicriteria approach for the sustainable management of the Plastiras reservoir, Greece, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23631.48801, European Geophysical Society, 2003.
The Plastiras reservoir, sited in Western Thessaly, Greece, is a multipurpose project used for irrigation, water supply, hydropower, and recreation; the importance of the latter is continuously increasing as the reservoir landscape becomes attractive to tourists. These uses are competitive and result in a particularly complex problem of water management. Recently, a multidisciplinary analysis was attempted, aiming at determining a rational and sustainable management policy for the Plastiras Lake. This consists of establishing a minimum allowable water level for abstractions, in addition to a proper release policy. Until now, the reservoir level has had a 16 m fluctuation range, affecting negatively both the landscape, due to the exposure of the dead (no-vegetation) zone and the water quality. Three types of analyses were employed, to determine the variation of the corresponding criteria as a function of the allowable minimum level. The first one was the annual safe yield for various reliability levels, derived through a stochastic simulation model for the reservoir operation. The second criterion was the average summer concentration of chlorophyll-a (as indicator of the eutrophic regime of the lake), estimated through a one-dimensional eutrophication model. The final criterion was the aesthetics of the landscape; the relative study was focused on the effects of level variation and determined five fluctuation zones to characterise the quality of the landscape. After multiobjective analysis, and in cooperation with the local authorities and the public, a specific value of the minimum allowable level and a release policy were selected, which are currently on the way to be formally legislated.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23631.48801
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Gounaridis, D., and G. N. Zaimes, GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis applied for environmental issues: the Greek experience, International Journal of Applied Environmental Sciences, 7(3), 307–321, 2012. |
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, E. Rozos, and I. Nalbantis, Calibration of a conjunctive surface-groundwater simulation model using multiple responses, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23002.34246, European Geophysical Society, 2003.
A multi-cell semi-distributed model was developed to simulate the hydrological processes of the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin and its underlying karst. The whole system (surface and underground) provides water for local irrigation use as well as for the supply of Athens. Moreover, the basin outflow, a significant part of which comes from karstic springs, feeds Lake Yliki, one of the three main supply reservoirs of Athens. The model consists of a set of interconnected cells. Each cell is further divided into a surface and a ground water sub-cell. The former is modelled as a soil moisture reservoir, with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as inputs, and surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and deep percolation as outputs. The groundwater sub-cell operates according to Darcy's law; it accepts percolation and lateral flow as inputs, and yields lateral outflow to adjacent cells or the sea, spring runoff and water abstractions as outputs. A heuristic evolutionary optimisation algorithm, where a generalised downhill simplex scheme is coupled with a simulated annealing strategy, is applied to calibrate the model. The model calibration is based on a multi-objective approach, aiming at fitting the historical hydrographs, which are available at the basin outlet and the main spring sites, to the simulated ones. Extended analysis illustrated that the uncertainty of parameters is much larger for the groundwater subsystem, mainly due to the existence of non-measurable outflows to the sea. Hence, the selection of the best-compromise parameter set is based on empirical estimations of the location and magnitude of losses to the sea.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological statistics for engineering design in a varying climate, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 5, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16291.45602, European Geophysical Society, 2003.
The intensive research of recent years has shown that climate has always, throughout the Earth's history, changed irregularly on all time scales. However, hydrological statistics, the branch of hydrology that deals with uncertainty and risk and is a primary tool for hydrologic design, in its current state is not consistent with the varying character of climate. More specifically, hydrological statistics is based on classical statistics and on the implicit assumption of a stable climate. Climatic variation, anthropogenic or natural, increases the variability and uncertainty of hydrological processes. A better alternative to base hydrological statistical estimation and hypothesis testing is offered by the study of the Hurst phenomenon, which has been detected in many long hydroclimatic time series and is stochastically equivalent to a multiple time scale climatic fluctuation following a simple scaling law over time scale. Under the hypothesis of this simple scaling behaviour, typical statistics used in hydrology such as sample means, variances, autocorrelations and Hurst coefficients, and the variability thereof, are found theoretically to differ, in some cases dramatically, from the classical ones. The more consistent, based on the simple scaling hypothesis, representation of typical statistical tasks such as estimation, prediction and hypothesis testing is demonstrated by means of case studies.
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K Mantoudi, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A simple water balance model using a geographical information system, 26th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 3, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26357.78567, European Geophysical Society, 2001.
A simple distributed water balance model is presented which simulates the hydrological processes in monthly time step using a geographical information system and its object oriented programming language. Model inputs (precipitation, temperature) and outputs (evapotranspiration, water storage in different conceptual reservoirs, runoff) are given in distributed format in grids with a cell size of 4 square kilometres. Successive transformations of precipitation are done assuming an interconnected system of hypothetical reservoirs representing snow accumulation, soil moisture and groundwater. The model uses only four parameters, namely imperviousness, soil storage capacity and recession coefficients of soil moisture and groundwater. The model is applied to the Acheloos River basin in Western Greece and measured river discharge at a hydrometric station is used for calibration and verification. Despite of its simplicity and parsimony of parameter the model yields a very satisfactory reproduction of measured discharge also providing accumulated runoff in any location of the river network by implementing utilities of a geographical information system.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26357.78567
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Zeng, W.-H., Q. Sun and Z.-F. Yang, Research on GRID-based dynamic water balance model of Jin River Basin, Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 19 (5), 73-77. 2005. |
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A decision support system for the management of the water resource system of Athens, 26th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 3, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28035.50724, European Geophysical Society, 2001.
The water resource system of Greater Athens supplies water mainly for domestic and industrial use to the metropolitan area of Athens, Greece. The system consists of four reservoirs, groundwater resources, and a network of aqueducts and pumping stations. For the control of this system an integrated computational framework was developed named Hydronomeas, which implements the parameterisation-simulation-optimisation methodology. To allocate the water demand to the different system components, it uses a parametric operation rule thus keeping the number of control variables small. This parametric rule is embedded into a simulation-optimisation scheme. To perform each simulation step, the water resource system is transformed to a digraph, and the water conveyance problem is formulated as a typical transhipment problem, which can be solved by the network simplex algorithm. Global system objectives are incorporated in a performance measure, which is subsequently optimised using nonlinear optimisation methods. Users can specify multiple targets and constraints, give them priorities and set acceptable limits for the system reliability. Hydronomeas is currently used as the main decision support tool for the management of the water resource system of Athens.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28035.50724
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Margane, A., Guideline for sustainable groundwater resources management, Management, Protection and Sustainable Use of Groundwater and Soil Resources (ACSAD), 242 pp., Damascus, 2003. |
| 2. | #Al-Maqtari, S., H. Abdulrab, E. Babkin and I. Krysina, New approach for combination of multi-agent algorithms and constraints solvers for decision support systems, BIR 2009 - 8th International Conference on Perspectives in Business Informatics Research, 2014. |
| 3. | #Stamou, A. T., P. Rutschmann, and C. Rumbaur, Energy and reservoir management for optimized use of water resources: A case study within the water-food-energy context of nexus in the Nile river basin, Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Rhodes, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, A stochastic hydrology framework for the management of multiple reservoir systems, 26th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 3, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11258.29125, European Geophysical Society, 2001.
Long-term planning and management of large hydrosystems, such as multiple reservoir systems, under hydrological uncertainty continues to be a very difficult task. Stochastic processes and stochastic simulation are the most reliable methodologies for the study of hydrosystems under a wide range of hydroclimatic inputs and for the risk assessment of different management policies. Climate change scenarios and, more specifically, drought scenarios can be incorporated into stochastic models by either modifying the historical statistical characteristics or better, assuming large timescale random fluctuations. Such fluctuations can be equivalently modelled as long-term persistence by means of a specified autocorrelation structure. Using these ideas, a comprehensive stochastic methodology is developed and implemented in an integrated software package named Castalia. The methodology is based on a two-level multivariate simulation-forecast scheme. In the higher level it enables preservation of important features on an annual timescale, such as hydrologic persistence. In the lower level it enables reproduction of features on a monthly or sub-monthly timescale, such as periodicity. The above methodology was applied for the study of the water supply system of Athens, which contains four reservoirs. Several scenarios were examined, which allowed a detailed investigation of uncertainty and risk associated with the system.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, and H. S. Wheater, Stochastic disaggregation of spatial-temporal rainfall with limited data, 26th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 3, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28874.36800, European Geophysical Society, 2001.
Despite the wide coverage of radar data in many countries, rainfall data availability remains a severe limitation in modelling spatial-temporal rainfall in most parts of the world. In this case, a spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall model has to be fitted using raingauge data only. This problem is explored in a real-world case in the UK with results showing that this fit is feasible. If such a spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall model can be fitted in a reliable manner with limited raingauge data, this can then be utilised to enhance the available historical rainfall information for hydrological modelling purposes. For example, if daily raingauge data are available from several sites, but data at fine temporal resolution are much more limited (e.g. a single hourly time series), then a disaggregation modelling framework can be established to disaggregate the historical data of daily raingauges into hourly series. This framework integrates the detailed spatial-temporal model with simpler multivariate stochastic models and appropriate stochastic disaggregation techniques. It is tested in the same real-world case and results in consistent hourly time series and a satisfactory reproduction of the actual hyetographs.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28874.36800
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Debele, B., R. Srinivasan and J. Yves Parlange, Accuracy evaluation of weather data generation and disaggregation methods at finer timescales, Advances in Water Resources, 30(5), 1286-1300, 2007. |
| 2. | Debele, B., R. Srinivasan and J.Y. Parlange, Hourly analyses of hydrological and water quality simulations using the ESWAT model, Water Resources Management, 23 (2), 303-324, 2009. |
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Global optimisation techniques in water resources management, 26th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 3, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13774.87360, European Geophysical Society, 2001.
Optimisation has become a valuable tool in most of hydroinformatics applications, such as calibration of hydrological models, optimal control of hydrosystems, water quantity and quality management, water supply and sewage networks design, etc. Given that these problems are intrinsically nonlinear and multimodal, they do not exist deterministic optimisation methods that can locate the globally optimal solution. During the last two decades, probabilistic schemes have been developed for solving global optimisation problems. These methods use a combination of random and deterministic steps, without generally requiring restrictive conditions on the nature of the objective function. The scope of this study is the investigation of the features of these techniques, focusing on three of them, which are presented and compared by means of both mathematical applications and real-world problems. The first two are the most popular in applications related with hydrology and water resources, i.e. genetic algorithms and the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. The third one is a new simplex-annealing scheme, which incorporates the principles of simulated annealing in the well-known downhill simplex method. This scheme is very simple to implement and extended analysis proved that it is very effective in locating the global optimum as well as very efficient, in terms of convergence speed.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.13774.87360
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kolovoyiannis, V. N., and G. E. Tsirtsis, Downscaling the marine modelling effort: Development, application and assessment of a 3D ecosystem model implemented in a small coastal area, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 126, 44-60, 2013. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and C. Onof, A computer program for temporal rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures (HYETOS), 25th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 2, Nice, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33488.10243, European Geophysical Society, 2000.
A simple and generic model that performs disaggregation of daily into hourly rainfall is presented. It combines an existing rainfall simulation model of the Poisson cluster type along with an appropriate technique for modifying the rainfall model output, thus performing disaggregation. Specifically, it uses the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses rainfall model as a background stochastic model for rainfall generation. Repetition is first carried out to derive a synthetic rainfall series, which resembles the given series at the daily scale. This step focuses on the wet/dry pattern and the intensities separately. In a second step, an appropriate adjusting procedure - the proportional adjusting procedure - is applied to make the generated hourly series fully consistent with the given daily series without affecting the stochastic structure implied by the model. The model is implemented in a computer program, named Hyetos, with a user-friendly window-style interface, which provides the user with several options. The model was successfully applied with data sets of several regions, both with dry and wet climates.
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See also: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/e/softinfo/3
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Wheater, H.S., R.E. Chandler, C.J. Onof, V.S. Isham, E. Bellone, C. Yang, D. Lekkas, G. Lourmas & M.-L. Segond, Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation, Stoch. Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19(6), 403-416, 2005. |
| 2. | Segond, M.-L., C. Onof and H.S. Wheater, Spatial-temporal disaggregation of daily rainfall from a generalized linear model, Journal of Hydrology, 331(3-4), 674-689, 2006. |
| 3. | Segond, M.-L., N. Neokleous, C. Makropoulos, C. Onof and C. Maksimovic, Simulation and spatio-temporal disaggregation of multi-site rainfall data for urban drainage applications, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5), 917-935, 2007. |
| 4. | #Pui, A., A. Sharma and R. Mehrotra, A comparison of alternatives for daily to sub-daily rainfall disaggregation, 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, 3535-3541, Cairns, Australia, 2009. |
| 5. | #Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra, Rainfall Generation, in Rainfall: State of the Science (eds F. Y. Testik and M. Gebremichael), American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 10.1029/2010GM000973, 2010. |
| 6. | Engida, A. N., and M. Esteves, Characterization and disaggregation of daily rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia, Journal of Hydrology, 399 (3-4), 226-234, 2011. |
| 7. | #Hanaish, I. S., K. Ibrahim and A. A. Jemain, Daily rainfall disaggregation using HYETOS model for Peninsular Malaysia, Recent Researches in Applied Mathematics, Simulation and Modelling, 5th International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Simulation, Modelling (ASM '11), ISBN: 978-1-61804-016-9, Corfu Island, Greece, 146-150, 2011. |
| 8. | Pui, A., A. Sharma, R. Mehrotra, B. Sivakumar and E. Jeremiah, A comparison of alternatives for daily to sub-daily rainfall disaggregation, Journal of Hydrology, 470–471, 138–157, 2012. |
| 9. | Abdellatif, M., W. Atherton and R. Alkhaddar, Application of the stochastic model for temporal rainfall disaggregation for hydrological studies in north western England, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 15 (2), 555-567, 2013. |
| 10. | Yusop, Z., H. Nasir and F. Yusof, Disaggregation of daily rainfall data using Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse model: a case study in central Peninsular Malaysia, Environmental Earth Sciences, 71 (8), 3627-3640, 2014. |
| 11. | Abdellatif, M., W. Atherton, R. M. Alkhaddar and Y. Z. Osman, Quantitative assessment of sewer overflow performance with climate change in North West of England, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 10.1080/02626667.2014.912755, 2014. |
| 12. | Villani, V., D. Di Serafino, G., Rianna, and P. Mercogliano, Stochastic models for the disaggregation of precipitation time series on sub-daily scale: identification of parameters by global optimization, CMCC Research Paper, RP0256, 2015. |
| 13. | Sun, Y., D. Wendi, D. E., Kim, and S.-Y. Liong, Deriving intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves using downscaled in situ rainfall assimilated with remote sensing data, Geoscience Letters, 6(17), doi:10.1186/s40562-019-0147-x, 2019. |
H. S. Wheater, V. S. Isham, C. Onof, R. E. Chandler, P. J. Northrop, P. Guiblin, S. M. Bate, D. R. Cox, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Generation of spatially-consistent rainfall fields for rainfall-runoff modelling, 7th National Hydrology Symposium of the British Hydrological Society, Newcastle, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4315.4163, British Hydrological Society, University of Newcastle, 2000.
In the last decade, radar data have become routinely available for the UK, providing a means of observing spatial rainfall. Although radar has limitations with respect to performance and long records of continuous data are not yet available, it represents an important source of information which allows, for the first time, the continuous spatial distribution of rainfall to be studied. In parallel, new research into spatial rainfall modelling has produced a range of tools with potential for hydrological application. However, most methods of representing rainfall for hydrological design and simulation are relatively primitive. There is a need, therefore, to combine the strengths of new data sources and new modelling methods to produce a new generation of rainfall modelling tools to support hydrological practice. In a major study for the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, a comprehensive suite of rainfall modelling tools has been developed, with wide applicability to provide inputs to distributed or lumped rainfall-runoff models based on radar or raingauge data. These tools include spatial-temporal models, generalised linear models and hybrid modelling approaches. In spatial-temporal models, rainfall is modelled in continuous space and time and hence can be aggregated to any required spatial or temporal scale. The generalized linear model approach represents point rainfall at a number of locations by what is essentially an extension of a multiple regression approach. In this way, any important explanatory variables can be included (for example elevation, rainshadow effects, distance from the sea) as well as temporal dependence (e.g. previous rainfall). The model is thus extremely flexible, and can incorporate spatial non-stationarity as well as long-term climate effects. The hybrid approach, which has been developed for situations of limited spatial data, uses the concept of spatial-temporal disaggregation.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/57/1/documents/2000BHSRain.pdf (67 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, The scaling model of storm hyetograph versus typical stochastic rainfall event models, 24th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 1, The Hague, 769, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1192.2165, European Geophysical Society, 1999.
The scaling model of storm hyetograph (D. Koutsoyiannis and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, A scaling model of storm hyetograph, Water Resources Research, 29(7), 2345-2361, 1993) is fitted to short time scale point rainfall data of several regions. In addition, other typical descriptions of rainfall events with different stochastic structures are examined using the same data sets. The comparison provides evidence that the scaling model fits well to several rainfall data sets of regions with different climates and different population of storms (e.g. intense rainfall events only) and is superior to typical stochastic rainfall event models in capturing rainfall statistical properties even if they are not explicitly used for the model fitting.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Zarris, Simulation of rainfall events for design purposes with inadequate data, 24th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 1, The Hague, 296, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2797.8482, European Geophysical Society, 1999.
Recently, the new concept of using continuous simulation in hydraulic design attracts interest. However, the absence of long rainfall records with appropriate temporal resolution, coupled with the requirement of simulating a vast number of synthetic events to calculate the flood peak for a given exceedance probability have become a barrier to the use of such approaches. Therefore, the use of design storms based on local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves remains at present the most popular method not only for its simplicity but mainly because most frequently the IDF curves represent the only available information on local rainfall. Also, IDF based approaches assure the reproduction of rainfall extremes whereas continuous simulation models may fail to do so. An intermediate method lying in between the traditional design storm approach and the continuous simulation approach is presented. The method is based on, and uses as the only input, the IDF curves of a particular catchment. The main concept is to keep the design storm approach for the determination of the total characteristics of the design storm event, extracted from the IDF curves, and use a disaggregation technique to generate an ensemble of alternative hyetographs. The stochastically generated hyetographs are then entered into a rainfall - runoff model and then routed through the hydrosystem in order to simulate its hydraulic performance. The proposed method is demonstrated via examples involving sewer systems and dam spillways.
Related works:
Full text:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2797.8482
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Keller Filho, T., J. Zullo Jr. and P.R.S.D.R. Lima, Analysis of the transition between dry and wet days through third-order Markov chains, Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira, 41(9), 1341-1349, 2006. |
| 2. | Blanc, J., J. W. Hall, N. Roche, R. J. Dawson, Y. Cesses, A. Burton and C. G. Kilsby, Enhanced efficiency of pluvial flood risk estimation in urban areas using spatial-temporal rainfall simulations, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5 (2), 143-152, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, An advanced method for preserving skewness in single-variate, multivariate and disaggregation models in stochastic hydrology, 24th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 1, The Hague, 346, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1749.2725, European Geophysical Society, 1999.
Preservation of skewness in hydrological stochastic models is hard to accomplish, especially when the model structure involves a large number of noise (innovation) variables. This is the case in long memory single-variate ARMA models, in multivariate stochastic models, even with short-memory, and particularly in multivariate disaggregation models. The problem is in fact a consequence of the central limit theorem, because the linear combination of a large number of noise variables tends to have a symmetric distribution. However, it is well known that there exists an infinite number of coefficients of linear combinations of noise variables, all resulting in preservation of the first and second (marginal and joint) moments of the involved hydrological variables. Each of these infinite combinations results in different skewness coefficients of the noise variables. The smaller these skewness coefficients are, the more attainable their preservation is in a finite generated sample. Consequently, the problem may be formulated in an optimisation framework aiming at the minimisation of skewness coefficients of all noise variables. Analytical expressions of the derivatives of this objective function are derived, which allow the development of an effective nonlinear optimisation algorithm. The method is illustrated through real-world applications, which indicate a very satisfactory performance of the method.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Metsovo: The hydrological heart of Greece, Proceedings of the 1st Inter-university Conference for Metsovo, edited by D. Rokos, Metsovo, 209–229, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2928.9205, National Technical University of Athens Press – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1998.
The area of Metsovo is the place where the five most important river basins of Greece, those of Arachthos, Acheloos, Pinios, Aliakmon, and Aoos rivers adjoin. From this area the Metsovitikos, tributary of Arachthos, rises whereas in a short distance Acheloos, Aoos and some tributaries of Pinios and Aliakmon originate. Thus, metaphorically but with no exaggeration, we could say that the area of Metsovo is the hydrological heart of Greece, where the most important hydrological arteries start. In this study the surface water potential of the area, is appraised. To this aim, appropriate hydrological time series, especially those of rainfall and runoff, are examined using statistical tools. Moreover, the long term variability of time series is statistically tested to trace possible changes of their characteristics in the last forty years. Also the occurrence of extreme events is examined and also related to corresponding phenomena of other regions in Greece.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and M. Mimikou, Country Paper for Greece, Management and Prevention of Crisis Situations: Floods, Droughts and Institutional Aspects, 3rd EURAQUA Technical Review, Rome, 63–77, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2142.4888, EURAQUA, 1996.
The flood and drought hazards in Greece are systematically described with emphasis on two characteristic areas that suffer frequently from floods and droughts, the Greater Athens area and the Thessaly plain. The structural measures to remedy both hazards are also summarised; these have not been exhausted yet in Greece but, on the contrary, large projects are currently under way or planned for the near future. In addition, several non-structural measures that have been successfully applied for crisis situations are described.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/69/1/documents/1996EuraquaFloods.pdf (379 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2142.4888
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Alvarez, J., and T. Estrela, Regionalization and identification of droughts in Mediterranean countries of Europe, Tools for Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions, ed. by G. Rossi, 123-134, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003. |
| 2. | #López Geta, J. A., and J. A. De la Orden, Drought as a catalyser of intensive groundwater use, Intensive use of groundwater: challenges and opportunities (ed. R. Llamas & E. Custodio), Swets & Zeitlinger BV, Lisse, The Netherlands, 177-189, 2003. |
| 3. | Lasda, O., A. Dikou and Ε. Papapanagiotou, Flash Flooding in Attika, Greece: Climatic Change or Urbanization? AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 39 (8), 608-611, doi: 10.1007/s13280-010-0050-3, 2010. |
| 4. | #Karagiorgos, K., M. Chiari and J. Hübl, Flood hazard assessment validation based on the floods risk directive 2007/60/EC – a case study in Rafina (Attica, Greece) catchment, 12th Congress INTERPRAEVENT 2012 – Conference Proceedings, 509-517, Grenoble, France, 2012. |
| 5. | Karagiorgos, K., S. Fuchs, T. Thaler, M. Chiari, F. Maris and J. Hübl, A flood hazard database for Greece, Wildbach- und Lawinenverbau, 77 (170), 264-277, 2013. |
M. Mimikou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Extreme floods in Greece: The case of 1994, U.S. - ITALY Research Workshop on the Hydrometeorology, Impacts, and Management of Extreme Floods, Perugia, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1945.8802, 1995.
Several regions in Greece suffer from frequent and hazardous extreme floods and flash floods. In this paper an attempt is made to present the basic characteristics of the extreme floods occurred in October 1994 and which caused severe damages and loss of lives in Athens greater area and in the Thessaly plain.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/73/1/documents/1995ItalyFloods.pdf (1096 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1945.8802
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Lasda, O., A. Dikou and Ε. Papapanagiotou, Flash Flooding in Attika, Greece: Climatic Change or Urbanization? AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 39 (8), 608-611, doi: 10.1007/s13280-010-0050-3, 2010. |
| 2. | Migiros, G., G. D. Bathrellos, H. D. Skilodimou and T. Karamousalis, Pinios (Peneus) River (Central Greece): Hydrological — Geomorphological elements and changes during the quaternary, Central European Journal of Geosciences, 3 (2), 215-228, 2011. |
| 3. | Karagiorgos, K., S. Fuchs, T. Thaler, M. Chiari, F. Maris and J. Hübl, A flood hazard database for Greece, Wildbach- und Lawinenverbau, 77 (170), 264-277, 2013. |
| 4. | Diakakis, M., An inventory of flood events in Athens, Greece, during the last 130 years: Seasonality and spatial distribution, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10.1111/jfr3.12053, 2013. |
| 5. | Diakakis, M., and G. Deligiannakis, Vehicle-related flood fatalities in Greece, Environmental Hazards, 10.1080/17477891.2013.832651, 2013. |
| 6. | Diakakis, M., A. Pallikarakis and K. Katsetsiadou, Using a spatio-temporal GIS database to monitor the spatial evolution of urban flooding phenomena: the case of Athens Metropolitan Area in Greece, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 3 (1), 96-109, 2014. |
| 7. | Sapountzaki, K., and C. Chalkias, Urban geographies of vulnerability and resilience in the economic crisis era - the case of Athens, A|Z, ITU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture , 11 (1), 59-75, 2014. |
D. Zarris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Occurrence and general characteristics of deposits in the Athens storm sewers, International Conference on Sewer Solids: Characteristics, Movement, Effects and Control, Dundee, U.K., doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3780.8885, 1995.
The sewer system of the city of Athens is composed of a separate network at the most part and of a very minor segment of combined network serving the oldest part of the city. The maintenance of the network is inadequate. Therefore, no information is available about the deposits of sewer sediments within the network. A recent pilot investigation is summarised here, which showed that: (1) Deposits do exist in the Athens storm sewer system and may constitute a serious problem for the proper hydraulic function of the network. (2) The sediment discharge capacity of the network during moderate storm events seems to be modest, as deposits of very fine material were traced at certain locations. (3) The finer deposits have high organic loads, which may have been caused by illegal connections of domestic and industrial sewers. These deposits are likely to develop some kind of cohesiveness because dry periods are usually long for the Athens climate.
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N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Weather types and geographical distribution of intense rainfall, Abstracts of the 5th International Conference on Precipitation, Elounda, Greece, 1.13, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1290.5208, 1995.
The spatial rainfall distribution is affected by the type of the prevailing weather situation as well as by local geographical factors, such us orography and latitude. The study of the areal distribution of rainfall is important especially when physiographic and climatological conditions vary over the same region causing different rainfall regimes. In this research, the influence of the prevailing weather type to the geographical distribution of the intense daily rainfall is studied. The study area is the Sterea Hellas region (Central Greece) and consists of three (among the fourteen) different water districts of Greece. The Pindos mountain chain in the west side of this region gives rise to heavy orographic rainfall and causes a wetter rainfall regime as compared with that of the east side. Daily data from 71 rain gages and hourly data from three rain recorders over a 20 year period are used. From these data sets, the intense rainfall events were extracted and analyzed. The intense rainfall days are classified according to the prevailing weather type using a daily calendar of synoptic weather types in Greece. Several methods (also including the available tools of a Geographical Information System) are used for the analysis and comparison of rainfall distributions. The results of these methods are statistically analyzed to trace similarities in geographical distribution of rainfall produced by a specific weather type, and dissimilarities in the distribution of rainfall produced by different weather types. Overall, the analysis shows that different weather types affect the location and other characteristics of rainfall in the study area.
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Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/71/1/documents/1995PrecipConfWeathTyp.pdf (51 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Pachakis, Deterministic chaos versus stochasticity in analysis and modelling of rainfall structure, Abstracts of the 5th International Conference on Precipitation, Elounda, Greece, 4.6, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1552.6648, 1995.
In recent years, new methods for time series analysis, devised for description and characterization of chaotic behavior, yielded some fascinating results. Among them, the fact that deterministic processes may sometimes be statistically indistinguishable from random noise. Currently, discussion is going on about how to characterize a process and how to recognize whether it is stochastic or deterministic. A popular method for revealing the underlying dynamics from a time series, is the phase-space reconstruction via time delay embedding. This method is used here as a means to detect possible low-dimensional determinism in a historical rainfall time series and to compare the historical series synthetic series generated by a stochastic model. Specifically, the synthetic series has been produced using the scaling model of storm hyetograph combined with a stochastic process describing storm arrivals, durations and total depths. The comparison aims at revealing potential essential differences in the structure of the historical and synthetic data sets.
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N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, Intense rainfall and flood event classification by weather type, 19th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 12, Supplement II, Part II, Grenoble, 440, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4124.9520, European Geophysical Society, 1994.
The influence of different weather types on intense rainfall and flood discharge is studied. Data from Western Greece are analysed, through a weather type classification that has been widely used in Greece. The probability of occurrence of intense rainfall events and flood events, conditional on the prevailing weather type, are calculated. Also, the statistics of the event characteristics are extracted and analysed through statistical tests and analysis of variance. The analyses show that there exist statistically significant differences in the probability of occurrence of an intense rainfall and flood event. However, the weather type concept does not explain significant portion of the variance of the event characteristics, such as rainfall duration, total depth, intensity, and discharge volume.
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Additional material:
N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, Stochastic rainfall forecasting by conditional simulation using a scaling storm model, 19th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 12, Supplement II, Part II, Grenoble, 324, 408, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1241.3682, European Geophysical Society, 1994.
Based on the recently developed scaling model of storm hyetograph, a conditional simulation scheme is presented, which can be used for stochastic forecasting of the temporal evolution of rainfall. The scaling model is fitted to hourly rainfall data of Greece and Italy. In addition, the model is tested for capturing statistical properties that are not explicitly used for the fitting. The scheme is formulated so as to use any information known for the rainfall event, as a condition for the simulation. The conditional simulation scheme is applied in two steps: first we generate the duration and total depth of the event and then we disaggregate the total depth into sequential hourly depths. Two different types of conditions are examined. The first one concerns the incorporation of preceding hourly rainfall depths. The second is related to information given by meteorological forecasts from which we can approximately estimate the duration and total depth of the event.
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Full text:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1241.3682
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Nalbantis, I., Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 45(2), 269-284, 2000. |
M. Vafiadis, D. Tolikas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, HYDROSCOPE: The new Greek national database system for meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological information, 2nd International Conference on Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data, Braunschweig, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3182.8726, UNESCO, 1993.
The HYDROSCOPE is a Greek national wide research programme, co-financed by the European Community, as a STRIDE programme, aiming to the constitution of a Greek National Database System for Meteorological, Hydrological and Hydrogeological Information. The HYDROSCOPE Database design and functional characteristics are carefully chosen among the front line of the contemporary state of the art in the domain of Database design and development, and the whole undertaking constitute by its originality an advanced applied research programme. This database would represent by its technical characteristics the state of the art in database system, by means of modern electronic database technology and conceptual design. All the major hydrometeorological data collecting Services and supervising Ministries, University Divisions and Research Institutes, as well as the most important users of these data in Greece are participating in this programme.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/480/2/documents/1993FriendHydroscope_ocr.pdf (1011 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, On the concept of similar storms and their parameterization via scaling, 1992 Western Pacific Geophysical Meeting, American Geophysical Union, EOS Transactions, Hong Kong, 73/25, 34, American Geophysical Union, 1992.
Empirical evidence suggests that statistical properties of storm rainfall within a homogeneous season have a well-structured dependence on storm duration. For example, the mean and standard deviation of total storm depth increase with duration each according to a power law with the same exponent; the lag-one correlation coefficient of hourly rainfall depths increases with duration; and the decay rate of the autocorrelation function of hourly rainfall depths decreases with duration. Motivated by the first observation, a simple scaling model for rainfall intensity within a storm was hypothesized and was shown both analytically and empirically that such a model can explain reasonably well the observed statistical structure in the interior of storms providing thus an efficient parameterization of storms of varying durations and total depths. This simple scaling model is also consistent with, and provides a theoretical basis for, the concept of mass curves (normalized cumulative storm depth vs. normalized cumulative time since the beginning of a storm) which are extensively used in hydrologic design.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/76/1/documents/1992AGUFoufoula.pdf (264 KB)
I. Nalbantis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Modelling the Athens water supply system, 1st European Conference on Advances in Water Resources Technology, Athens, European Water Resources Association, 1991.
An investigation of a real-world water-resources problem involving both planning and management aspects is presented. The Athens water supply system is studied in order to assist its future operation and the design of alternative system improving works. The yield of the existing system is first assessed via simulation. Then the risk of system failure to meet the water demand is evaluated for various water demand scenarios and operation policies, with emphasis on the 1989-90 critical situation. Alternative future reservoirs in the Evinos River Basin are studied by testing large number of technical solutions. Uncertainties on hydrology, leakage losses, water demand, and possible damages are taken into account. Finally, a computer programme is developed to assist the water supply policy design for the existing Mornos-Iliki system.
Related works:
I. Nalbantis, D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Tsolakidis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Planning and operating of the hydrosystem of Athens, Workshop for the perspectives of resolving the water supply problem of Athens, edited by D. Koutsoyiannis, 101–108, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3952.9207, G. Fountas, 1990.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/80/1/documents/1992EEDYPSxediasmos.pdf (400 KB)
N. Mamassis, S. Roti, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Hydrological characteristics of the Mornos, Evinos and Yliki basins, Workshop for the perspectives of resolving the water supply problem of Athens, edited by D. Koutsoyiannis, 55–64, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2177.3043, G. Fountas, 1990.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/79/1/documents/1992EEDYPlekanes.pdf (466 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2177.3043
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Amanatidis, G. T., A. G. Paliatsos, C. C. Repapis, and J. G. Bartzis, Decreasing precipitation trend in the Marathon area, Greece, International Journal of Climatology, 13(2), 191-201, 1993. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Reliability and safety of the water resource system of Athens, Workshop for the perspectives of resolving the water supply problem of Athens, edited by D. Koutsoyiannis, 91–100, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1980.6968, G. Fountas, 1990.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/78/1/documents/1992EEDYPaxiopistia.pdf (672 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology and quantitative estimations of sediments, Seminar for the land reclamation works, 174–188, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.1718.5528, Greek Union of the Rural and Surveying Engineers, 1986.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/81/1/documents/1986SemEggBeltiws.pdf (964 KB)
A. Katsiri, A. Andreadakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assimilative capacity of the Kalamas River and the Lake Pamvotis, Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Environmental Technology for Developing Countries, Istanbul, Turkey, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4995.3520, 1984.
The problems of the water system of the Kalamas River and the Lake Pamvotis are investigated and the methodology for establishing criteria for the water quality control in the system are portrayed. Initially, the hydrologic regime of the system is described with emphasis on the water budget and the minimum discharges. Then, the water uses and the pollution sources are presented and the pollution loads of the system are estimated. Finally, the classification of the uses of the system and the adoption of water quality criteria for each use is attempted, and a methodology for modeling the pollution of the system is formulated.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/82/2/documents/1984Kalamas-ocr.pdf (945 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, The perpetual change in climate and the technology-augmented human ability of adaptation (Invited), Water 3rd Webinar | Climate Change and Water Resources: Evidence, Impacts, Adaptation, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22354.27849, 2021.
This in an invited talk for the Webinar of the journal Water, entitled “Water Climate Change and Water Resources: Evidence, Impacts, Adaptation” (https://water-3.sciforum.net/). Its title is “The perpetual change in climate and the technology-augmented human ability of adaptation”. Its subtitle is “Μωραίνει Κύριος ὃν βούλεται ἀπολέσαι (Whom God wishes to destroy, He first deprives of reason). It addresses three questions: A. What do we know about the perpetual change in climate?, B. Why climate mitigation does not make sense? [short reply: Mitigation presupposes prediction—but “Predicting is a guessing game for fools” (Schwab and Malleret, 2020; The Great Reset)]. C. Why adaptation is always necessary—and effective?
Remarks:
Video available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HawJSiJzR14
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Contribution to the Panel Session: Advancing New Methods for the Treatment of Climate Change and Extreme Events (Invited), 2021 World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, Virtual Online, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31716.71046, American Society of Civil Engineers, 2021.
In the frame of the 2021 World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, Virtual Online, organized by the American Society of Civil Engineers, the Session 5-4 was a Panel Session entitled "Advancing New Methods for the Treatment of Climate Change and Extreme Events". The following scientists constituted the panel, while the audience made comments and remarks.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2129/1/documents/2021ASCE_PanelSession.pdf (2531 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Ancient climate and the modern myth of climate crisis, From the Myths of Hercules to the reality of climate change, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35277.87520, UNESCO, International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research (IAHR), Thessaloniki, 2020.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2076/1/documents/ClimateIAHR-UNESCO_.pdf (2056 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate of the past and present, and its hydrological relevance, School for Young Scientists “Modelling and forecasting of river flows and managing hydrological risks: Towards a new generation of methods” (2020), doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.20826.77761, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 2020.
Remarks:
Video (talk and discussion, in English, 1 h 6 min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyr-3PgNuW4&t=15s
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2065/1/documents/ClimateHydrologyMoscow.pdf (7522 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Advances in stochastics of hydroclimatic extremes, Giornata di studio in memoria di Baldassare Bacchi, Brescia, Italy, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30655.05282/1, Universita Degli Studi di Brescia, 2019.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2010/1/documents/2019BresciaHydroclExtremes4.pdf (4820 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastic simulation of time irreversible processes, Invited Lecture, Rome, Università di Roma "La Sapienza", 2019.
Stochastic simulation is a well-established method for the design, analysis and control of hydrosystems. In particular, it has proved powerful for the management of large reservoir systems, where simulation and optimization are typically performed on a time scale of the order of a month. A basic requirement of the method is a proper technique for stochastic generation of hydrological inputs, respecting characteristic behaviours of hydrological processes, such as seasonality, intermittence, long term persistence and roughness (fractality). However, in several hydrosystem operations, particularly those related to flood control and energy production, the time scales of interest are much finer than monthly, e.g., hourly or even finer. On fine time scales, another behaviour of hydrological processes becomes important and necessary to reproduce: time irreversibility or compliance with time’s arrow. While time’s arrow, with its close relationship to causality, has important philosophical, scientific and technical connotations, it has attracted little attention in hydrological stochastics and even in the entire field of stochastic simulation. On the other hand, stochastics offers a frame to explore, characterize and simulate time irreversibility. As common stochastic techniques produce time series whose properties are symmetric in time, a new stochastic simulation method is presented, which is capable of generating sequences with the required properties related to time irreversibility. The method is generic as it can reproduce any marginal distribution, covariance structure and irreversibility index, and can work both in simulation and forecast mode.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1986/1/documents/2019SapienzaDelftLecture_1E2KCd8.pdf (4788 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, T. Iliopoulou, S. Antoniadi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Strategic plan for developing a National Hydrometric Network, Hellenic Integrated Marine and Inland water Observing, Forecasting and offshore Technology System (HIMIOFoTS) - Second meeting of project partners, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2019.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1973/1/documents/NTUA_pres_June2019_PartB.pdf (2262 KB)
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net): Evolution of works, challeneges and perspectives, Hellenic Integrated Marine and Inland water Observing, Forecasting and offshore Technology System (HIMIOFoTS) - Second meeting of project partners, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2019.
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and P. Defteraios, The evolution of water science and technology in ancient Athens, Hydrotechnologies in Ancient Greece, Chania, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31867.16167, Technical University of Crete, 2019.
Remarks:
Video from a visit to Hadrianic Aqueduct: https://youtu.be/n5Iaa90TNO0
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1941/1/documents/2019TUC_ScienceTechnologyWaterAncientAthens.pdf (5073 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The tragedy of hydropower in Greece of crisis, Workshop of the Association of Thessalian Studies, Athens, 2019.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1931/1/documents/Trag_Hlektr_19.pdf (2873 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change impacts on hydrological science: How the climate change agenda has lowered the scientific level of hydrology, School for Young Scientists “Modelling and forecasting of river flows and managing hydrological risks: Towards a new generation of methods” (2018), doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11110.06727, Russian Academy of Sciences, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2018.
Remarks:
Video of the presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOgqxZgxxJw
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1901/1/documents/2018MoscowClimate2.pdf (8762 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Modelling extreme rainfall in the era of climate change concerns: Towards a consistent stochastic methodology, School for Young Scientists “Modelling and forecasting of river flows and managing hydrological risks: Towards a new generation of methods” (2018), doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22015.25766, Russian Academy of Sciences, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, 2018.
Remarks:
Video of the presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBGFvap5k7o
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1897/1/documents/2018MoscowSeminar.pdf (5369 KB)
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Koukouvinos, Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net), Hellenic Integrated Marine and Inland water Observing, Forecasting and offshore Technology System (HIMIOFoTS) - First meeting of project partners, Anavyssos, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, 2018.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1872/1/documents/NTUA_pres_HCMR_Sep2018_dnpy8Eq.pdf (4637 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the book "Requiem with Crescendo" by T. Xanthopoulos, Presentation of the book "Requiem with Crescendo" , Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12794.41927, National Technical University of Athens, 2018.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1778/1/documents/2018Requiem3.pdf (4025 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Book presentation: Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia, Temporal evolution of water management technologies for antiquity to present, Patra, Patras, 2017.
Remarks:
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKOU60boIW8
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1762/1/documents/WS_par_patr.pdf (9625 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Saving the world from climate threats vs. dispelling climate myths and fears, Invited Seminar, Lunz am See, Austria, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34278.42565, WasserCluster Lunz – Biologische Station GmbH, 2017.
Remarks:
Blog discussions about this presentation: Fabius Maximus website, Watts Up With That?, Iowa Climate Science Education, Twitter, Gatorchatter
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1706/1/documents/2017LunzClimate_.pdf (5097 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Environment, Water, Energy and search of Orthos Logos, Workshop for the World Day of Environment, Larisa, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36732.13443, DEYA of Larisa, 2016.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1619/1/documents/Larisa2016-Orthologismos.pdf (4226 KB)
Ο. Daskalou, A. Koukouvinos, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Methodology for optimal allocation and sizing of renewable energy sources using ArcGIS 10.3: Case study of Thessaly Perfecture, 24th Hellenic Meeting of ArcGIS Users, Crowne Plaza, Athens, Marathon Data Systems, 2016.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1616/2/documents/MDS-Olympia.pdf (2133 KB)
Additional material:
A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The quantitative dimension of WFD 2000/60, Water Framework Directive 2000/60 and Inland Water Protection: Research and Perspectives, Athens, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Specific Secreteriat of Water – Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, 2015.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1541/1/documents/2015_WFDQuantity1.pdf (787 KB)
A. D. Koussis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Challenges and perpectives of research project DEUCALION, Workshop - Deucalion research project, Goulandris National Histroy Museum, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1470/1/documents/Challenges_Perspectives.pdf (1298 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The research project DEUCALION: Hellenic and international framework, Workshop - Deucalion research project, Goulandris National Histroy Museum, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34539.95521, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1469/1/documents/DeukalionClosureDK.pdf (1296 KB)
A. Tegos, A. Efstratiadis, A. Varveris, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assesment and implementation of ecological flow constraints in large hydroelectric works: The case of Acheloos, Ecological flow of rivers and the importance of their true assesment, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1455/1/documents/2014_envflows_pres.pdf (1344 KB)
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Perspectives of combined management of water and energy in Thessaly region, , Larissa, 21 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15760.61442, Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of CW Thessaly, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1434/1/documents/larissa_25_2.pdf (2206 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Exploration of ancient Greek hydraulic tecnhology using web-based data, Hydrotechnologies in Ancient Greece, edited by E. G. Kolokytha, Thessaloniki, 21 pages, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 2013.
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A. D. Koussis, S. Lykoudis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Peppas, and A. Maheras, Estimating flood flows in ungauged Greek basins under hydroclimatic variability (Deukalion project) - Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools, Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Region, Pylos, Navarino Environmental Observatory, 2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1292/1/documents/DeflkalionPoster.pdf (258 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Re-establishing the link of hydrology with engineering, Invited lecture at the National Institute of Agronomy of Tunis (INAT), Tunis, Tunisia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32862.23361, 2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1288/1/documents/2012TunisReestablishingTheLinkOfHydrologyWithEngineering_pres.pdf (4703 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Water control in the Greek cities (solicited), Water systems and urbanization in Africa and beyond, Uppsala, Sweden, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36217.67680, 2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1195/1/documents/2012UppsalaWaterControlGreece.pdf (9522 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36217.67680
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Antonelli, E., and K. Liapi, Water management structures in historical settlements: Towards a cross-geographical, cross-vultural categorization, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 881-891, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate is changing ... since 4.5 billion years ago, Climate change: natural or human-induced, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24054.19524, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alumni, University of Michigan Alumni, Athens, 2011.
The scaremongering on "climate change" and the disasters it will allegedly cause is mainly associated with socio-political and economic interests, rather than with scientific data. The very notion of "climate change" is not adequately defined as a scientific term. In fact the term is a pleonasm, as change is inherent in climate. The study of paleoclimatic data and historical hydrometeorological time series shows that climate has always been changing, on all time scales and as far back in time climate reconstruction studies allow. The hypothesis that recent changes (e.g. the increase of average global temperature by about 0.3°C in the last three decades) is anthropogenic, unlike the natural changes which always have taken place, is not supported by evidence. The climate models that have been used in support of this hypothesis, when tested in independent studies, have shown no skill in reproducing correctly the known past climate. A fortiori, the predictions of these models for the future can not be trusted.
Remarks:
The talk was part of a debate, where the opposite position, that "we (humans) change it (the climate)" was supported by D. Lalas. At the beginning and end of the debate a voting with a scoring system took place. With 100% for the view that "we change it", 0% for the view "it changes" and 50% for the neutral position, before starting the debate the position "we change it" prevailed with 56% and after the position "it changes" prevailed with 41%.
The debate was videotaped and can be seen from the URL shown above (in Greek; duration 130 min: 0.00' Openning and salutations - 5.00' DK Presentation - 37.00' DL presentation - 68.00' Replications - 88.00' Questions - 129.00' Voting results and closing).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1181/1/documents/2011MIT_ClimateChange.pdf (3327 KB)
See also: http://www.blod.gr/lectures/Pages/viewlecture.aspx?LectureID=323
A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Uncertainty estimation in hydrology: Incorporating physical knowledge in stochastic modeling of uncertain systems, Invited Seminar at the University of Uppsala, Uppsala, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25731.91684, 2011.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1156/1/documents/2011UppsalaUncertainty.pdf (2079 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic uncertainty and water resources management - from science to divination, 23th general assembly EDEYA, Larisa, Larisa, 2011.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1155/1/documents/deya_2011b_1.pdf (4741 KB)
A. Christofides, and D. Koutsoyiannis, God and the arrogant species: Contrasting nature's intrinsic uncertainty with our climate simulating supercomputers, 104th Annual Conference & Exhibition, Orlando, Florida, Air & Waste Management Association, 2011.
Although the climate has always been in perpetual change, many scientists who support the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis claim that this time it's different, because their climate models show that the increase in carbon dioxide fits the current climate change better than any alternative explanation. This argument is circular, since the models reproduce the hypotheses of their programmers. What is most important, however, is that this way of reasoning is rooted in the fallacy that climate can, in principle, be described in deterministic terms; that if we could analyze the system with sufficient granularity and make sufficient measurements then we would be able to produce sufficiently good predictions; and that there must necessarily exist an identifiable causal agent behind every trend or shift. We explain that climate, like many natural systems, exhibits "Hurst-Kolmogorov behavior", which means it is intrinsically uncertain, with real limits to the potential for attribution and prediction.
Remarks:
Discussions in blogs: Climate etc., EuroEconom.cz, Environmental trends.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1153/1/documents/god-and-the-arrogant-species.pdf (2532 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Strategy for flood prevention: Modern technological framework, Integrated planning of flood protection: A challenge for the future, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27671.78242, Association of Civil Engineers of Greece, Athens, 2010.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydroscope: From yesterday to tomorrow, Towards a rational handling of current water resource problems: Utilizing Data and Informatics for Information, Hilton Hotel, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19283.17447, Athens, 2010.
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N. Mamassis, E. Tiligadas, D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Salahoris, G. Karavokiros, S. Mihas, K. Noutsopoulos, A. Christofides, S. Kozanis, A. Efstratiadis, E. Rozos, and L. Bensasson, HYDROSCOPE: National Databank for Hydrological, Meteorological and Geographical Information, Towards a rational handling of current water resource problems: Utilizing Data and Informatics for Information, Hilton Hotel, Athens, 2010.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Workshop on Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis, and Water Management, Boulder, Colorado, USA, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36060.39045, International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management, US Army Corps of Engineers, United States Geological Survey, US Department of the Interior - Bureau of Reclamation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Environmental Protection Agency, Colorado State University, 2010.
Perhaps the most significant contribution of the intensifying climatic research is the accumulation of evidence that climate has never been static. Rather, it has been ever changing at all time scales. The changing character of climate, verified for the past or predicted for the future, has been sometimes described by the term nonstationarity. However, revisiting the notions of stationarity and nonstationarity, which are defined within stochastics, we may understand that the terms are often abused. Literally, claims of nonstationarity cannot stand unless the evolution in time of the statistical characteristics of the process is known in deterministic terms not only for the past, but also for the future in particular. This however can hardly be the case, because, as is known, deterministic predictions are difficult, especially of the future.
Change is not synonymous to nonstationarity, since even an ideal stationary white noise process involves change, which however becomes less and less distinct as the time scale of viewing the process (e.g., time scale of averaging) increases. However, the climatic and all geophysical processes demonstrate more prominent change at large scales in comparison to white noise or even to typical stochastic models such as Markovian. This does not reflect nonstationarity. Rather it warns us to change our perception of natural processes as resembling these simple idealized mathematical processes and to move towards a new type of stochastic dynamics.
The “new” description does not depart from the 60- to 70-year old pioneering works of Hurst on natural processes and of Kolmogorov on turbulence. Essentially, Hurst’s discovery in 1950 of the behaviour named after him and the model that had been proposed by Kolmogorov 10 years earlier recognize the multi-scale fluctuation of natural processes and describe it in stationary terms.
Contrasting stationary with nonstationary descriptions is not just a matter of semantics and of rigorous use of scientific terminology. Rather it has important implications in engineering and management. Because nonstationarity uses deterministic functions of time, it explains part of the variability and thus reduces future uncertainty. This is consistent with reality only if the produced deterministic functions are indeed deterministic, i.e., exact and applicable in future times. As this is hardly the case as far as future applicability is concerned, the uncertainty reduction is a delusion and results in a misleading perception and underestimation of risk.
Apparently, the stationary description with Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics results in higher uncertainty in comparison to either nonstationary descriptions or to typical stationary stochastic processes. In particular, the uncertainty under Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics is dramatically increased at large scales, i.e., time scales comparable to those used to define climate, to lifetimes of engineering projects, and to horizons of management strategies. In addition, as far as typical statistical estimation is concerned, the Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics implies dramatically higher intervals in the estimation of location statistical parameters (e.g., mean) and highly negative bias in the estimation of dispersion parameters (e.g., standard deviation). It is important that the Hurst-Kolmogorov framework allows calculating the statistical measures of bias and uncertainty, either of statistical parameters or of future predictions, which are theoretically consistent and also consistent with empirically observed natural behaviours.
The above framework is illustrated using several examples of hydrometeorological time series, which initially show the consistency of the framework with reality and illustrate the implications for uncertainty. A final example demonstrates how this framework was implemented in the planning and strategic management of the water supply system of Athens, Greece, which comprises four reservoirs and several aquifers. After a long persistent drought (7 years) that shocked Athens in the beginning of the 1990s, the strategic water management became a crucial task, with amplified importance in the phase of preparation of the 2004 Olympics. The demonstration of the methodological framework also includes comparison with alternative nonstationarity modelling approaches, including a trend-based approach that yields absurd results, and a climate-model-based approach that substantially underestimates uncertainty and risk.
Remarks:
Related blog post: Land and Water USA.
Related works:
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See also: http://www.cwi.colostate.edu/NonStationarityWorkshop/index.shtml
D. Koutsoyiannis, Kephisos as a river, 2nd Scientific Workshop for the Kephisos River, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.17186.02245, Organization for the Management and Restoration of the Kephisos River and its Tributaries, National Technical University of Athens, 2009.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Tegos, Hydrometeorological issues in ancient Greek science and philosophy, The Eco-nomy of Water, edited by E Efthymiopoulos and M. Modinos, Hydra island, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25574.63040, Hellenica Grammata, 2009.
Technological applications aiming at the exploitation of the natural sources appear in all ancient civilizations. The unique phenomenon in the ancient Greek civilization is that technological needs triggered physical explanations of natural phenomena, thus enabling the foundation of philosophy and science. Among these, the study of hydrometeorological phenomena had a major role. This study begins with the Ionian philosophers in the seventh century BC, continues in classical Athens in the fifth and fourth centuries BC, and advances and expands through the entire Greek world up to the end of Hellenistic period. Many of the theories developed by ancient Greeks are erroneous according to modern views. However, many elements in Greek exegeses of hydrometeorological processes, such as evaporation and condensation of vapour, creation of clouds, hail, snow and rainfall, and evolution of hydrological cycle, are impressive even today.
Related works:
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C. Makropoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Challenges and perspectives in urban water management, Local Govenance Conference: The Green Technology in the Cities, Athens, Ecocity, Central Association of Greek Municipalities, 2009.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Entropy as an explanatory concept and modelling tool in hydrology, Invited lecture, Rome, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31902.13124, Università di Roma "La Sapienza", 2008.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change as a scapegoat in water science, technology and management, EUREAU Workshop on Climate Changes Impact on Water Resources with Emphasis on Potable Water, Chania, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35519.71843, European Association of Water and Wastewater Services, Hellenic Union of Water and Wastewater Enterprises, 2008.
Remarks:
Note added on 2010-02-12: The link pointing to the quotation of Sir John Houghton is now broken. An alive link in the same server is http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/195/195we07.htm. However, it appears that the quotation is untrue (see http://environment.independentminds.livejournal.com/268431.html and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Houghton). The correct quotation, which should replace that in slide 6, is " Global warming is now a weapon of mass destruction". This appears in Houghton’s article in the Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/jul/28/environment.greenpolitics. (Update on 2010-08-22: see also http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/7958485/What-is-the-best-way-to-help-the-worlds-deserving-poor.html, section "An apology withdrawn").
Note added on 2017-04-13: Even the alternative link of the UK parliament given in the previous note is now broken but can be found in the WayBack machine, https://web.archive.org/web/20111014180355/http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/195/195we07.htm. Furthermore, the quotation appears now (but not in an original text by Houghton) in a book by the Great Britain Parliament, House of Lords: "The Economics of Renewable Energy: Recent Developments", 4th Report of Session 2007-08, Volume 2 (see https://books.google.gr/books?id=pUSoZEjpBGIC&pg=PA234).
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35519.71843
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kutílek, M., Soils and climate change, Soil and Tillage Research, 117, 1-7, 2011. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Flood protection planning in Greece - Utilization of scientific knowledge, The role of science in reconstitution of the burned areas, Kalamata, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12991.71844, Technical Chamber of Greece, 2008.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Energy, water and agriculture: Prospects of integrated management in the Prefecture of Karditsa, Water Resources Management in the Prefecture of Karditsa, Workshop of The Local Union of Municipalities and Communities, Karditsa, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33124.37760, 2008.
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A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Optimization of the water supply network of Athens, Second International Congress: "Environment - Sustainable Water Resource Management", Athens, Association of Civil Engineers of Greece, European Council of Civil Engineers, 2007.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Towards a national programme for water resources management and preservation, Consultative Committee of Water, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36479.82089, 2007.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Andreadakis, R. Mavrodimou, A. Koukouvinos, and N. Mamassis, The Master Plan for the water resource management of Greece (invited talk), International Conference: Integrated Management of Coastal Areas, Faliro, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30398.08005, CoPraNet, Mediterranean SOS, 2006.
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G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System, Research and Technology Days 2006, Athens, 2006.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The underestimation of probability of extreme rainfall and flood by prevailing statistical methodologies and how to avoid it, EU COST Action C22: Urban Flood Management, 2nd meeting, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25469.77286, University of Athens, 2006.
Probabilistic modelling of extreme rainfall has a crucial role in flood risk estimation and consequently in the design and management of flood protection works. This is particularly the case for urban floods, where the plethora of flow control sites and the scarcity of flow measurements make the use of rainfall data indispensable. For half a century, the Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model of extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasons and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution, which corresponds to an exponential parent distribution tail. Recently, the applicability of this distribution has been criticized both on theoretical and empirical grounds. Thus, new theoretical arguments based on comparisons of actual and asymptotic extreme value distributions as well as on the principle of maximum entropy indicate that the Extreme Value Type 2 distribution should replace the Gumbel distribution. In addition, several empirical analyses using long rainfall records (e.g. a recent study of annual maximum daily rainfall from 169 stations from Europe and the USA, with lengths exceeding 100 years) agree with the new theoretical findings. Furthermore, the empirical analyses show that the Gumbel distribution may significantly underestimate the largest extreme rainfall amounts (albeit its predictions for small return periods of 5-10 years are satisfactory), whereas this distribution would seem as an appropriate model if fewer years of measurements were available (i.e., parts of the long records were used).
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E. Rozos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Managing water supply resources in karstic environment (temperate climate), UNESCO Workshop - Integrated Urban Water Management in Temperate Climates, Belgrade, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28756.40329/1, 2006.
Throughout history, karstic aquifers have had an important role in urban development around the Mediterranean and especially in areas with insufficient surface water resources. Athens is a characteristic example of a city with very long history whose water supply has been determined on karst water. In ancient Athens, water supply was based on groundwater resources, both from karstic and porous aquifers. Specifically, the two main aqueducts, the Peisistratean and the Hadrianian, conveyed water from karstic springs at foothills of surrounding mountains, whereas porous aquifers were exploited by an extended network of wells. In modern times the water needs of Athens are covered mainly by surface water resources. Four major reservoirs, three artificial and a natural lake, are used for water supply. Nevertheless the karstic aquifers remain of high importance because they interact with surface water bodies and provide additional storage, especially useful in prolonged drought periods. Thus, karstic water was crucial to enhance the Athens water supply system during the recent drought period (1988-1994). Today, water management has become a very demanding task, which should consider the conflicting targets of cost efficiency and risk minimisation. In such a management framework, the interaction of surface and ground water resources and the high complexity of the karstic flows, along with the need to compromise between the conflicting targets have made imperative the development and implementation of advanced computational tools. Such tools can help design a water management strategy according to an acceptable risk against various scenarios including population variation, technical failures and even major disasters. According to this logic, a decision support tool for the management of the Athens water supply system has been recently developed, which is based on a holistic hydrological and hydrosystem modelling framework, with special emphasis to the modelling of karst aquifers.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A new stochastic hydrological framework inspired by the Athens water resource system, Invited lecture, Bologna, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28546.68809, University of Bologna, 2006.
Athens, the capital of Greece, lies in a dry region and has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history. During the recent development of a decision support tool for the management of its modern, huge water supply system, several problems were faced. Among them was hydrologic modelling, which was interesting due to peculiar hydrologic behaviours such as long lasting droughts and multi-year fluctuations of water resources. The natural behaviours encountered could not be explained by the classical statistical hydrological approach, according to which they were extraordinarily unexpected. Therefore, a new framework has been developed, which includes diagnosis of natural behaviours, explanation, description, and synthesis into an operational modelling tool.
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Z. W. Kundzewicz, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The peer review system revisited, Hydrology Journal Editors Meeting, Vienna, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.32180.65920, Advances in Water Resources, Hydrological Processes, Hydrological Sciences Journal, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Journal of Hydrology, Journal of River Basin Management, Nordic Hydrology, Water Resources Research, 2006.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The management of the Plastiras reservoir: From study to application, The water supply of Karditsa - Problems and perspectives, Karditsa, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28825.21602, Municipality of Karditsa, Municipal Company of Water Supply and Sewerage of Karditsa, 2006.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A new stochastic hydrologic framework inspired by the Athens water resource system, Invited lecture, Durham, N. Carolina, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28546.68809, School of Engineering, Duke University, 2006.
Athens, the capital of Greece, lies in a dry region and has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history. During the recent development of a decision support tool for the management of its huge water supply system, several problems were faced. Among them was hydrologic modeling, which was interesting due to peculiar hydrologic behaviors such as long lasting droughts and multi-year fluctuations of water resources. The natural behaviors encountered could not be explained by the classical statistical hydrological approach, according to which they were extraordinarily unexpected. Therefore, a new framework had to be developed, which includes diagnosis of natural behaviors, explanation, description, and synthesis into an operational modeling tool.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A new stochastic hydrologic framework inspired by the Athens water resource system, Invited lecture, Atlanta, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28546.68809, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006.
Athens, the capital of Greece, lies in a dry region and has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history. During the recent development of a decision support tool for the management of its huge water supply system, several problems were faced. Among them was hydrologic modeling, which was interesting due to peculiar hydrologic behaviors such as long lasting droughts and multi-year fluctuations of water resources. The natural behaviors encountered could not be explained by the classical statistical hydrological approach, according to which they were extraordinarily unexpected. Therefore, a new framework had to be developed, which includes diagnosis of natural behaviors, explanation, description, and synthesis into an operational modeling tool.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The management of the Athens water resource system: Methodology and implementation, Invited lecture, Atlanta, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11209.13928, Georgia Water Resources Institute, 2006.
After long periods of frequent water shortages, Athens, the capital of Greece, has developed a reliable, extensive and complex water resource system that includes surface water resources (four reservoirs), groundwater resources, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations and more than 100 boreholes. Since 2000, an advanced decision support tool is in operation for the management of the hydrosystem. Due to its complexity and peculiarities, the construction of this tool was not an easy task and required the development of new methodologies. Particularly for the hydrosystem operation, a methodology called parameterization-simulation-optimization was developed and tested. The methodology was integrated into a decision support tool, which includes data acquisition and software systems, and is used to support the management of the hydrosystem.
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E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, New forms of wastewater collection and drainage, Wastewater management by decentralized processing systems, Neochori Karditsas, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31341.79846, Central Association of Greek Municipalities, Hellenic Union of Water and Wastewater Enterprises, Municipality of Karditsa, Technical Chamber of Greece, 2005.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1353/1/documents/m2093_vasilopoulos.pdf (235 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The management of the Athens water resource system: Methodological issues, Invited lecture, San Diego, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12886.86089, Hydrologic Research Center, 2005.
Athens, the capital of Greece, lies in a dry region and has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history. Today it has developed a reliable, extensive and complex water resource system that includes surface water (resources four reservoirs), groundwater resources, 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations and more than 100 boreholes. Since 2000, an advanced decision support tool is in operation for the management of the hydrosystem. Due to the complexity and peculiarities of the hydrosystem, the construction of this tool was not an easy task and required the development of new methodologies, which may be grouped into three categories: (1) Hydrological issues: Diagnosis of natural behaviors, explanation, description, and synthesis. (2) Hydrosystem operation issues: System parameterization, simulation and optimization. (3) Decision support tool integration: Data acquisition, software systems, management plans. The lecture reviews the water resource system with its natural and artificial components as well as the decision support tool developed. In addition, it focuses on some of the most interesting methodological problems and describes in more depth the solutions given.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Andreadakis, and N. Mamassis, ODYSSEUS: Information system for the simulation and management of hydrosystems, 15th meeting of the Greek users of Geographical Information Systems (G.I.S.) ArcInfo - ArcView - ArcIMS, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.14145.15203, Marathon Data Systems, 2005.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Climatic uncertainty, the Joseph effect and the water resource management, Man and environment in the 21st century - The crucial problems - Atmosphere and climate, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22533.76008, Goulandris Natural History Museum, 2005.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Zalachori, and A. Andreadakis, Infiltration and inflows to foul sewers, Symposium for water resources management, Theba, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18339.45607, 2005.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Climatic change certainty and climatic uncertainty from a hydrological and water resources management viewpoint, Invited seminar, University of Thessaly, Volos, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31761.22888, University of Thessaly, 2004.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A methodological approach for the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship in Athens, Flood protection of Attica, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.21694.89926, Technical Chamber of Greece, 2004.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, The Hydronomeas computational system and its application to the study of the Acheloos river diversion, Water resource management with emphasis in Epiros, Ioannina, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35116.67205, Municipal Company of Water Supply and Sewerage of Ioannina, 2003.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Mathematical tools in water resource management, Workshop of the Hellenic Mathematical Society (Branch of Arta), Arta, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16320.94722, 2003.
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I. Paspallis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Geomorphometric characteristics of hydrologic basins of Greece, 12th meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo, Marathon Data Systems, Athens, 2002.
In this thesis we explore the geomorphometric characteristics of the system of river networks and drainage basins in Greece. We quantify several geomorphometric attributes using a geographical information system. These attributes describe the organization of river systems, as well as the shape and relief of basins. We find the drainage network and drainage basins for each water district from a digital elevation model and we examine each drainage system separately. We analyze totally 140 basins each one having an area over 100 km2 and we classify them using the classification system of Strahler. Also, we tabulate the results for each water district and for each basin order and we compare these results with that derived for the large basins of the global system of rivers. In addition, we apply the theory of the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph in two watersheds in Greece for which we have the unit hydrographs derived by measures. Finally, we derive some useful conclusions about the hydrologic response of the watersheds and generally for the water districts.
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D. Zarris, E. Lykoudi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams, Workshop for the presentation of research projects of PPC/DAYE, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10239.20649, Department for the Development of Hydroelectric Works – Public Power Corporation, 2002.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and A. Koukouvinos, Hydrological investigation of the Plastiras lake management, Workshop for the presentation of the research project "Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake", doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16950.09286, Municipality of Karditsa, Karditsa, 2002.
To protect the Plastiras Lake, a high quality of the natural landscape and a satisfactory water quality must be ensured, the conflicting water uses and demands must be arranged and effective water management practices must be established. This study focuses on the hydrological point-of-view of reservoir's operation, which is one of the three components of its management. The analysis is based on the collection and processing of the necessary geographical, hydrological and meteorological data. The main subject of the study is to investigate the safe yield capabilities for several minimum allowable reservoir level scenarios, by applying modern stochastic simulation and optimisation methods. The final product is to propose suitable management policies, through which the maximisation of water supply and irrigation withdrawals for a high reliability level can be ensured, after imposing the minimum reservoir level restriction.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Decision support systems for water resource management: The case of the water supply system of Athens, Water and Environment 2, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27016.42248, Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens, 2001.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27016.42248
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kallis, G., and H. Coccossis, Managing water for Athens: From the hydraulic to the rational growth paradigm, European Planning Studies, 11(3), 245-261, 2003. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological aspects of the operation of the Plastiras hydroelectric project, Workshop for the water resources management in Plastiras lake, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28694.14408, Municipal Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Karditsa, 2001.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Urban water systems management: Remarks - questions - opinions, Water and Environment, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24499.84006, Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens, 2000.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24499.84006
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kallis, G., and H. Coccossis, Managing water for Athens: from the hydraulic to the rational growth paradigm, European Planning Studies, 11(3), 245-261, 2003. |
A. Xanthakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The management plan of the water resource system of Athens for the next five years, Water for the city: Strategic planning, demand management and network losses control, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19886.10562, National Technical University of Athens, University of the Aegean, Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens, 2000.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/88/1/documents/2000EMPDiaxEYDAPSM.pdf (1437 KB)
H. Coccossis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water for the city: Strategic planning, demand management and network losses control, Water for the city: Strategic planning, demand management and network losses control, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33307.87843, National Technical University of Athens, University of the Aegean, Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens, 2000.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/87/1/documents/2000EMPWaterCity.pdf (118 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33307.87843
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Vasvatekis, I., Facts and policies on the issue of water resources management in Greece, Proceedings of the EYE-EEDYP Conference “Integrated Water Resource Management in Climate Change Conditions” (eds. A. Liakopoulos, V. Kanakoudis, E. Anastasiadou-Partheniou and V. Tsihrintzis), Volos, Greece, 67-74, 2009. |
K Mantoudi, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water balance model of a catchment using geographical information system, 10th meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo - ArcView, Marathon Data Systems, 2000.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/86/1/documents/2000GISMantoudi.pdf (5035 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and E. Arapaki, Water shortage in Ethiopia: A first approach, Solidarity for Ethiopia, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23556.12165, Hellas-Ethiopia, General Consulate of Ethiopia in Greece, 2000.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/85/1/documents/2000Ethiopia.pdf (123 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The Athens water resource system: A modern management perspective, Invited lecture, London, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.29008.71685, Imperial College, London, 1999.
Due to the dry climate of the surrounding region, Athens has suffered from frequent water shortages during its long history but now has acquired a reliable system for water supply. This extensive and complex water resource system extends over an area of around 4000 km2 and includes surface water and groundwater resources. It incorporates four reservoirs (one of which is a natural lake in a karstic area; losses can be half the inflows), 350 km of main aqueducts, 15 pumping stations and more than 100 boreholes . The water resource system also supplies secondary uses such as irrigation and water supply of nearby towns. The system is run by the Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP). Recently, EYDAP has commissioned a study of the Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens at the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) This project comprises: (a) development of a Geographical Information System for the visualisation and supervision of the water resource system; (b) development of the water resources telemetric measurement system; (c) development of a computational system for the appraisal and prediction of water resources utilising stochastic and deterministic models; (d) development of a decision support system for the integrated management of the water resource system using simulation-optimisation methodologies; and (e) cooperation and transfer of knowledge between NTUA and EYDAP. The lecture briefly reviews the water resource system and its historical evolution and focuses on the ongoing project and especially the questions that must be answered and the methodologies that will be developed and used.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Summary of the research project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas, Workshop for the presentation of the research project Evaluation and Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas, National Technical University of Athens, Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, 1998.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Experience from the elaboration of the masterplan of the water resources management of Greece, Workshop for the Masterplan of the water resources management in Greece, Ministry of Development, National Technical University of Athens, Institute of Geological and Mining Research, Centre for Research and Planning, 1997.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/93/1/documents/1997EMPWatResManGreece.pdf (186 KB)
E. Rozos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Koukouvinos, Supervision and investigation of the boreholes of the Yliki area using geographical information system, 7th meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo, Marathon Data Systems, 1997.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/92/1/documents/1997GISRozos.pdf (233 KB)
G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological characteristics of the Sperchios basin, Sperchios 2000+, 89–98, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15334.63047, Sterea Hellas District, National Technical University of Athens, 1995.
The hydrologic characteristics of the Sperchios River basin are presented and analysed. To this aim all hydrologic measurements of the Sperchios basin, starting at 1949, as well as measurements at neighbouring hydrologic basins have been collected and compiled. Special emphasis has been given to the discharge measurements at the locations Kastri Bridge and Kompotades Bridge, which had remained unprocessed until today. From the records formed, the surface water potential of the Sperchios basin was estimated, which proves to be one of the most important in the water district of the Eastern Sterea Hellas. Furthermore, a trend analysis for the rainfall and runoff series is presented, which indicates the existence of falling trends in both series. Finally forecasts of the flood discharge at various locations along the Sperchios River for different return periods are given.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/98/1/documents/1995Sperchios.pdf (240 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Study of the geographical distribution of hydrometeorological variables using geographical information system, 5th meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo, Marathon Data Systems, 1995.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/97/1/documents/1995GISHydrometeo.pdf (9985 KB)
D. Hadjichristos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Koukouvinos, Investigation of the design of storm sewer networks using geographical information system, 5th meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo, Marathon Data Systems, 1995.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/96/1/documents/1995GISHadjichristos.pdf (280 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, D. Christoulas, M. Mimikou, M. Aftias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A strategy for the problem of floods in Athens, Flood protection of the Athens basin, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35719.60320, Technical Chamber of Greece, 1995.
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35719.60320
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Lasda, O., A. Dikou and Ε. Papapanagiotou, Flash Flooding in Attika, Greece: Climatic Change or Urbanization? AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, DOI:10.1007/s13280-010-0050-3, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, G. Tsakalias, A. Christofides, A. Manetas, A. Sakellariou, R. Mavrodimou, N. Papakostas, N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, HYDROSCOPE: Creation of a national data bank of hydrological and meteorological information, Research and Technology Days '95, National Technical University of Athens, 1995.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/94/1/documents/1995EMPhydroscopeXanth.pdf (435 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, Rainfall modelling, Workshop for the presentation of the research project A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control, Bologna, Italy, University of Bologna, 1994.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/102/1/documents/1994AforismRain.pdf (750 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, HYDROSCOPE : Creation of a national data bank of hydrological and meteorological information, Workshop for the STRIDE HELLAS programme, General Secretariat of Research and Technology, 1994.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/101/1/documents/1994GGETHydroscope.pdf (271 KB)
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, E. Baltas, M. Aftias, M. Mimikou, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Hydrologic characteristics of the water shortage, The water supply problem of Athens, 13–28, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 1994.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/100/1/documents/1994TomeasLeipsydria.pdf (1030 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Schilling, W. and A. Mantoglou, Sustainable water management in an urban context, Drought management planning in water supply systems, E. Cabrera and J. Garcia-Serra (Ed.), Kluwer, 93-215, 1999. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, HYDROSCOPE: Organization and technical characteristics, Workshop for the presentation of the Hydroscope research project, National Technical University of Athens, 1994.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/99/1/documents/1994EMPHydroscope.pdf (229 KB)
D. Tolikas, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, HYDROSCOPE : An information system for the study of hydroclimatic phenomena in Greece, 8th Seminar for the protection of the environment, 36–44, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Municipality of Thessaloniki, Goethe German Institute of Thessaloniki, 1993.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/107/1/documents/1993hydroscopegr.pdf (217 KB)
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Some results on rainfall modelling - Univariate versus multivariate stochastic modelling of rainfall, 5th Meeting of AFORISM, Cork, Ireland, University College Cork, 1993.
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Nalbantis, I., Real-time flood forecasting with the use of inadequate data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 45(2), 269-284, 2000. |
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, An attempt for stochastic forecasting of rainfall, 4th Meeting of AFORISM, Grenoble, Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble, 1993.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/103/1/documents/1993AforismGrenoble.pdf (1214 KB)
I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Assessment of the risk for inadequacy of the water supply system of Athens, Water Supply of Athens, Association of Civil Engineers of Greece, Greek Union of Chemical Engineers, Association of the Greek Consulting Companies, 1992.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/111/1/documents/1992SPMEAthensWSS.pdf (879 KB)
N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of hydrological characteristics of Mornos, Boeoticos Kephisos and Yliki basins, Water Supply of Athens, Association of Civil Engineers of Greece, Greek Union of Chemical Engineers, Association of the Greek Consulting Companies, 1992.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/110/1/documents/1992SPMELekanes.pdf (884 KB)
I. Spyrakos, I. Stamataki, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Analysis of a geographical information system for hydrological data , 2nd meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo, Marathon Data Systems, 1992.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/109/1/documents/1992GISSpyrakos.pdf (1243 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, and N. Mamassis, Assessment of the risk for inadequacy of the water supply system of Athens in case of persistent drought, Likelihood of persistent drought and water supply of Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13244.03207, Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Athens, 1992.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/108/1/documents/1992EYDAPDrought.pdf (1874 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and G. Tsakalias, A disaggregation model for storm hyetographs, 3rd Meeting of AFORISM, Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.28343.52649, National Technical University of Athens, 1992.
An event based rainfall generation model was developed by combining a new disaggregation technique with an appropriate rainfall model. The model disaggregates the total depth of an event with known duration into incremental depths with arbitrary time step less than the duration. The disaggregation technique is charactersed by simplicity and parsimony of parameters; it assumes a random shape of the hyetograph and it is compatible with various rainfall models. The technique is based on the assumption that incremental depths are gamma distributed. With this assumption it was found that a simple disaggregation method consisting of two steps, where the first step is a sequential model and the second is an adjustment procedure, can give good approximations of the important statistics of interest. Furthermore, under some ideal conditions the disaggregation method was shown to be exact in a strict sense, i.e. it preserves the complete distribution of the variables. The disaggregation technique was combined with three alternative rainfall models (a scaling model, a Markovian in continuous time and a Markovian in discrete time). The results of the model application and testing at these three cases indicated good approximation of the important statistics of incremental rainfall depths (first, second and third order marginal moments, marginal distributions, and joint second order statistics).
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/106/1/documents/1992AforismTsakalias.pdf (589 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou, A scaling model of storm hyetograph, 2nd Meeting of AFORISM, Lausanne, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1992.
Related works:
I. Spyrakos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Development of a geographical information system for hydrological data, 1st meeting of the Greek users of ArcInfo, Marathon Data Systems, 1991.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/113/1/documents/1991GISSpyrakos.pdf (119 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, Pilot study for the management of Louros and Arachthos basins. Appraisal of methodology and results, Computer aided water resources management, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.35893.27360, Ministry of the Industry, 1991.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/112/1/documents/1991YBETLouros.pdf (605 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Slides for G. Sachinis' show in Crete TV – 2021-10-08, 2021.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, V. Marinos, M. Pantazidou, and H. Saroglou, Earth, water, time and us, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2020.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2070/1/documents/2020_10_29_OmiliaGiaPrwtoeteis.pdf (4503 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, A voyage in climate, hydrology and life on a 4.5-billion-years old planet, Self-organized lecture, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27000.26883, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 20 July 2020.
Remarks:
Video 1 (First section of the talk, beginning to Part 5; in Greek, 1 h 35 min)
Video 2 (Second section of the talk, Part 6 to end; in Greek, 1 h 4 min)
Video 3 (Discussion, in Greek, 1 h 50 min)
(Thanks to KG for the processing of a first version of the videos)
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2036/1/documents/ClimateHydrology6_.pdf (11987 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, The political origin of the climate change agenda, Self-organized lecture, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10223.05283, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 14 April 2020.
Remarks:
Video of first part (talk, in Greek, 1 h 20 min): https://vimeo.com/410680891
Video of second part (discussion, in Greek, 2 h 40 min): https://vimeo.com/411060443
(Thanks to KG for the processing the videos)
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2035/1/documents/PoliticalOriginOfClimateAgenda3.pdf (17693 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Personal knowable moments (DK-moments) for high-order characterization of coincidence in totalitarianism, Self-organized lecture, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23117.38885/1, Bologna, Italy, 17 December 2019.
Inspired by a visit to the University of Bologna and, in particular, by the cancellation of my scheduled lecture on changing climate, and referring on the one hand to my personal trajectory’s crosses with totalitarianism and on the other hand to some historical coincidences related to three particular dates (27 April, 17 November, 26 November), I exhibit my point of view on totalitarianism and its relationship to the World-Saviour attitude. I conclude that (1) we do not need modern-day naïve saviours, who claim that they will save the planet, the humankind or the human species/race; (2) history teaches that what we really need is to save ourselves (and our societies) from these non-humanist saviours; (3) also, we need to protect freedom, democracy and education, which are currently under (unprecedented?) global attack; and (4) it is dangerous to mix up politics and activism with science: science’s purpose should remain the pursuit of the truth.
Remarks:
See also:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2015/1/documents/DKmoments3.pdf (12415 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Proceedings of the School of Civil Engineering NTUA and report of the outgoing Dean - 2014-2018, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36800.99849, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2018.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2084/1/documents/ApologismosAperxomenoyKosmhtoraDK2.pdf (774 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change impacts on hydrological science: A comment on the relationship of the climacogram with Allan variance and variogram, ResearchGate, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11886.66884, 2018.
Inspired by reactions on a talk about climate change impacts on hydrological science, I am presenting detailed comparisons of second-order stochastic tools with particular emphasis on the relationship of the climacogram with the Allan variance and with the variogram.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1916/1/documents/CommentClimacogramAndAlanVariance.pdf (1136 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Edo Polytechneio… — 44 years after, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25488.30727, Athens, 2017.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1760/1/documents/Omilia17Noembrh2017.pdf (475 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, The 1821 revolution for freedom and the 180 years of struggles in NTUA for education, Official celebration of the national holiday of 25 March 1821, Athens, 24 March 2017.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1698/1/documents/Omilia25Martiou2017_.pdf (606 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Antonis Koussis, the epistemon – polites, National Observatory of Athens, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.16757.58089, Athens, 2016.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1654/1/documents/AntonisKoussis.pdf (2150 KB)
D. Tsaknias, D. Bouziotas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistical comparison of observed temperature and rainfall extremes with climate model outputs in the Mediterranean region, ResearchGate, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11993.93281, 2016.
During the recent decades, climate model outputs have been widely used to support decision making for social and financial policies, with special focus on extreme events. Moreover, a general perception has been developed that extreme events will be more frequent in the future. To evaluate whether climate models provide a credible basis for predictions of extremes, their ability to reproduce annual extreme values of daily temperature and precipitation is studied, as well as a set of climate indices which are used to investigate the occurrence of droughts, heat waves and floods. Comparisons of climate model outputs with observed data are made in terms of probability distributions of extreme events. The case study focuses on the Mediterranean area, which is regarded to be one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. The statistical comparison indicates that the observed extremes are not simulated sufficiently by climate models. Therefore, serious concerns are raised about the usefulness of climate models in hydrological applications.
[This research study has been submitted in several journals and was rejected; review comments and authors' replies to them are included as an Appendix]
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1650/1/documents/StatisticalComparison_ResearchGate.pdf (1654 KB)
N. Mamassis, P. Defteraios, N. Zarkadoulas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Research on water supply of ancient Piraeus-Representation of ancient cisterns operation, 16 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11392.64000, 15 May 2015.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1550/1/documents/Pres_cist_5_14_fin.pdf (2543 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the collapse of the historical bridge of Plaka, Kathimerini, 8 February 2015.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Book Review: "Meteorological Wandering - The Story of a Butterfly" by Theodore Kolydas, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.24814.41282, Athens, 16 June 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1462/1/documents/BiblioparousiasiKolydas_1.pdf (852 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Citation for the 2014 Tison Award, Dublin, 24 April 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1452/1/documents/CitationTison2014.pdf (321 KB)
See also: http://iahs.info/About-IAHS/Competition--Events/Tison-Award/Tison-Award-winners/
D. Koutsoyiannis, International Hydrology Prize – Dooge Medal 2014: Response, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.18103.52646, Dublin, 24 April 2014.
Response by Demetris Koutsoyiannis, winner of the International Hydrology Prize – Dooge Medal 2014, to the Citation presented by the IAHS President Hubert Savenije.
Remarks:
The International Hydrology Prize is awarded to hydrologists who have made outstanding contributions to hydrology; the Dooge medal is particularly intended for hydrologists who have demonstrated scientific excellence and have made fundamental contributions to the science of hydrology. The IAHS web site contains further information about the International Hydrology Prize and list of winners since its establishment in 1981. There is a video of part of the award ceremony.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1449/1/documents/IHP_DK_reply2.pdf (524 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, The Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Presentation in the framework of the evaluation of the School of Civil Engineering of NTUA, Athens, November 2013.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1409/1/documents/EvalPM_WaterResources.pdf (4391 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, LTP: Looking Trendy—Persistently, Climate Dialogue, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13070.36169, 2013.
This is a debate among Rasmus Benestad, Demetris Koutsoyiannis and Armin Bunde on the Climate Dialogue forum.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1348/1/documents/LTP3.pdf (818 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://www.climatedialogue.org/long-term-persistence-and-trend-significance/
D. Koutsoyiannis, Citation for the 2012 Tison Award, IAHS 90th Anniversary, Delft, The Netherlands, 23 October 2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1308/1/documents/CitationTison2012a.pdf (319 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Invitation to Kos 2013: Facets of Uncertainty, Hydrology and Society, 2012 EGU Leonardo Conference, Turin, 15 November 2012.
Remarks:
The invitation was presented during the dinner of the EGU Leonardo Topical Conference.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1307/1/documents/Kos2013.pdf (870 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Review report of 'Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water', 6 November 2011.
Remarks:
I have been asked several times by several colleagues about my opinion on "socio-hydrology". In fact, it happened to be a reviewer of the inaugural paper (https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8426), and, as I always do, I provided an eponymous review (and the authors were so kind to acknowledge my review in their paper.) Thus, my reply to the question about my opinion is contained in my review. I have made it publicly available through this site so that everybody interested (e.g. those who ask me) know it.
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1991/1/documents/2011HYP_Sivapalan.pdf (106 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Research funding as the enemy of innovation, Bishop Hill Blog, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31525.29928 , 2011.
Remarks:
Additional related blog post: De staat van het klimaat.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1170/1/documents/2011BishopHillResearchFunding.pdf (85 KB)
See also: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2011/9/16/research-funding-as-the-enemy-of-innovation.html
D. Koutsoyiannis, We don't mind, we do not have, Eleftherotypia, 28 May 2011.
Full text:
See also: http://www.enet.gr/?i=issue.el.home&date=28/05/2011&id=279336
D. Koutsoyiannis, Vít Klemeš (1932-2010), The Reference Frame (by Luboš Motl), 5 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10344.06404, 2011.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1114/1/documents/2011TRF_VitKlemes.pdf (1702 KB)
See also: http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/03/vit-klemes-1932-2010.html
M. Karlaftis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, [No English title available], Newspaper "To Vima", Α6, Athens, 26 November 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1173/1/documents/Epistolh_pros_to_BHMA_Teleutaio_teuxos_26-11-2010.pdf (733 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Three remarks for the rector election in NTUA in 2010, 5 pages, Athens, 1 July 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/990/1/documents/2010SxoliaGiaPrytanikesEkloges.pdf (108 KB)
See also: http://dep.ntua.gr/index.php?option=com_mamblog&Itemid=92&task=show&action=view&id=186&Itemid=92
D. Koutsoyiannis, A brief tribute to Vit Klemeš, IAHS/STAHY Workshop--Advances in Statistical Hydrology, Taormina, Sicily, Italy, 24 May 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/986/1/documents/2010TaorminaVitKlemesByDK_.pdf (44 KB)
See also: http://www.iahs.info/history/klemes.htm
D. Koutsoyiannis, Will propaganda and lies save the Earth?, 2 pages, Athens, 1 April 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/965/1/documents/2010Propaganda.pdf (115 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Beware saviors!, Climate Science (by Roger Pielke Sr.), 2 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23765.83688, 2009.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/936/1/documents/2009_SC_Beware_Saviors.pdf (42 KB)
See also: http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/beware-saviors-by-demetris-koutsoyiannis/
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Pielke, R. Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won't Tell You About Global Warming, 376 pp., Basic Books, New York, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Rainfall shortage as an opportunity for fertile thinking, Kathimerini, 16 March 2008.
Full text:
See also: http://news.kathimerini.gr/4dcgi/_w_articles_ell_2_16/03/2008_262854
D. Koutsoyiannis, Energy and water resources management, Energy Point, 3, Athens, August 2007.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the problem of erosion and sediment deposition in the area upstream of the Lavrio Cultural Park, 5 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2007.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/817/1/documents/2007LavrioErosion.pdf (612 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Kephisos is an X-ray image of the society, Newspaper "Kathimerini", 36, Athens, 11 March 2007.
Full text:
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Andreadakis, and C. Memos, On the revision of the curriculum of the School of Civil Engineering, Athens, 2006.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1621/1/documents/AnathProgPM2006e1.pdf (214 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, What are the conditions for valid extrapolation of statistical predictions?, Niche Modeling, 2 pages, August 2006.
It is maintained that the most important conditions to obtain valid statistical predictions are (1) to be aware of the fundaments of probability, statistics and stochastics, (2) to formulate the problem as clearly as possible, (3) to know the statistical/stochastic properties of the variables involved, such as marginal and dependence properties, and (4) to use correct statistical results, i.e. those results that correspond to the nature of the problem and the variables involved. These conditions are not always met in scientific publications and practical applications.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/793/1/documents/2006NicheModellingPredictions.pdf (41 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst, Joseph, colours and noises: The importance of names in an important natural behaviour, Niche Modeling, 10 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23513.52320, 2006.
It is maintained that the names and terminology used in the study of a scientific concept are closely related to its understanding and explanation, at least at the initial stages of the study, and that bad names reflect (or even result in) difficulties in understanding. Furthermore, the basic terminology used in the study of the scaling behaviour or the Hurst phenomenon are reviewed and it is maintained that most of them are unfortunate.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/792/1/documents/2006NicheModellingHurstColoursNoises.pdf (34 KB)
See also: http://landshape.org/enm/?p=25
D. Koutsoyiannis, Two comments on "How Red are my Proxies?" by David Ritson, Real Climate, 6 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36778.00960, 2006.
In his commentary article and his treatise "Deriving AR1 Autocorrelation Coefficients from Tree-Ring Data" (http://www.realclimate.org/supp/nred.pdf), David Ritson explains that in his tree ring analysis he decomposed the data series into a Markovian noise and a deterministic fluctuating signal component with comparatively large excursions over multi-decadal periods. In these two comments it is maintained that this methodology is fundamentally flawed. Also, more consistent stochastic methodologies are discussed.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/791/1/documents/2006RealclimateRedProxies.pdf (115 KB)
See also: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/how-red-are-my-proxies/
D. Koutsoyiannis, Energy aspects of the Acheloos diversion project, Ergotaxiaka Themata, 125, 35–37, Athens, November 2006.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Commercialized education and entrance examination: difficult problems and easy solutions, Athens, 11 July 2006.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/727/1/documents/2006Paideia1.pdf (111 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Diversions and aberrations, Newspaper "To Vima", A55, Athens, 30 August 2006.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Two comments on "Naturally trendy?" by Rasmus E. Benestad, Real Climate, 5 pages, May 2005.
Publication of the article Cohn T.A., and H.F. Lins, Nature's style: Naturally trendy, Geophysical Research Letters, 32(23), art. no. L23402, 2005 triggered stormy discussions on the internet on climatic blogs. In these two comments it is maintained that standard climatic statistics are incorrect and that the work by Cohn and Lins and its discussion will lead to more correct statistical methods and more consistent statistical thinking.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/790/1/documents/2005RealclimateNaturallyTrendy.pdf (20 KB)
H. Perlman, C. Makropoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The water cycle, http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/watercyclegreek.html, 19 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.11182.92480, United States Geological Survey, 2005.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/660/1/documents/2005watercyclegreek.pdf (1516 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Terror scenarios about a dam, Newspaper "To Vima", A8, 12 February 2005.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, A masterplan for rational management of water resources, Economist-Kathimerini, 26 September 2004.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/634/1/documents/2004Economist2.pdf (535 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The complicated water supply system of Athens, Economist-Kathimerini, 26 September 2004.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/633/1/documents/2004Economist1.pdf (700 KB)
C. Gardner, D. Koutsoyiannis, Z. W. Kundzewicz, and F. Watkins, IAHS and Electronic Publishing of HSJ, 5 pages, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, London, 2003.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/656/1/documents/epub_fin_wb.pdf (157 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Atmosphere and climate, Man and Environment in the 21st Century, The crucial problems, 1, 6 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.31315.58406, Goulandris Natural History Museum, Athens, 2003.
Full text:
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the covering of Kephisos River, Daemon of Ecology, 6 October 2002.
An opinion is presented for the advantages and disadvantages of the covering of the Kephisos River in Athens, also with respect to the design criteria of the flood protection works of the river.
Related works:
Full text:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Sapountzaki, K., and C. Chalkias, Urban geographies of vulnerability and resilience in the economic crisis era - the case of Athens, A|Z, ITU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture , 11 (1), 59-75, 2014. |
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate worsening: Inherent weaknesses in reliable prediction, and unjustified doomsaying, Bulletin of the National Chamber of Greece, 144–146, 8 July 2002.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/544/1/documents/2002TEEClima.pdf (320 KB)
See also: http://opac.tee.gr/cgi-bin-EL/egwcgi/316974/showfull.egw/1+0+1+full
D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Tselentis, Comment on the perspectives of water resources development in Greece with regard to the Water Framework Directive, Hydroeconomy, 2, 82–87, July 2002.
As a consequence of the inadequate development of water resources and the Mediterranean hydroclimatic conditions, water needs in several areas in Greece are not satisfactorily met. Therefore, the need for further development of water resources is urgent. Such a development should comprise the construction of new works that can assure long-lasting and sustainable solutions in water supply, hydropower and agricultural development. Furthermore such works would mitigate the existing stresses acting on natural environment and groundwater aquifers. Modifications to be made to the natural water systems will not be in breach of the Water Framework Directive provided that sustainability requirements will be met, while negative environmental impacts are alleviated. In this direction, the fact that water quality and environmental conditions of the existing modified water systems (e.g. large reservoirs), match and often exceed the condition of the natural water bodies, is very encouraging.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/543/1/documents/2002HydroecSxolio.pdf (3804 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Alexopoulou, A., C. Makropoulos and N. Voulvoulis, Water Framework Directive: Implementation in Greece, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Rhodes, Greece, 2005. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the covering of Kephisos River, Newspaper 'Machetiki of Moschato", 8 June 2002.
An opinion is presented for the advantages and disadvantages of the covering of the Kephisos River in Athens, also with respect to the design criteria of the flood protection works of the river.
Full text:
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate worsening: Inherent weaknesses in reliable prediction, and unjustified doomsaying, Newspaper "To Vima", A38–A39, 2 June 2002.
Full text:
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The management of resources for the water supply of Athens, Hellenic Association of Consulting Firms Newsletter, 65, 4–5, Athens, October 2001.
The managent of water resources for the water supply of Athens via the software system Hydronomeas is summarised.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/491/1/documents/2001SEGMHydronomeas.pdf (1221 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Prediction of climate: Scientific evidence, historical experience and the truth, Newspaper "To Vima", A10–A11, 17 September 2000.
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, 1 measurement = 1000 calculations, Newspaper "To Vima", Special extra supplement on water, 18–20, 12 November 2000.
Full text:
Greek Committee for Desertification, Greek provisional action plan for combating desertification, 142 pages, Ministry of Agriculture, 2000.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/162/1/documents/2000aperimosi.pdf (9492 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change: Myths and reality, New Ecology, 151, 27–28, May 1997.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/197/1/documents/1997NeaOikologia.pdf (804 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water resources, Technology and Informatics, Educational Greek Encyclopedia, 19, 403–404, Ekdotiki Athinon, 1997.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/196/1/documents/1997Encyclopedia.pdf (485 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, D. Christoulas, M. Mimikou, M. Aftias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Flood protection of the Athens basin, Monthly Technical Review, 48, 50–53, 1996.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/189/1/documents/1996TechEpithFloodAthens.pdf (805 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Comments on the reform and modernization of undergraduate Civil Engineering courses, Athens, 1995.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1622/1/documents/1995_DK_SxoliaGiaPS_PM.pdf (299 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, P. Marinos, and M. Mimikou, Hydrological approach of the Acheloos diversion, Pyrphoros, 21, 29–32, November 1995.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/195/1/documents/1995PyrforosAcheloos.pdf (1385 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, D. Christoulas, M. Mimikou, M. Aftias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, The problem of flood protection of Athens: Strategy to deal with, Newspaper "Pontiki", 14–15, 24 November 1994.
Related works:
Full text:
P. Burlando, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Precipitation measurement, modelling and forecasting - Stochastic modelling of rainfall in space and time (Conference session report), EGS Newsletter, 51, 17, 1994.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/182/1/documents/1994EGSBurlando.pdf (231 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, M. Mimikou, M. Aftias, D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, Assessment of the water supply problem of Athens under the prevailing drought, Report to the Minister of Environment, Planning & Public Works, 8 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1993.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/502/1/documents/1993YpomnLeipsydr.pdf (349 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The nature of drought, Pyrphoros, 7, 6–7, May 1993.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/181/1/documents/1993PyrforosDrought.pdf (413 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Special supplement on the problems of the water supply of Athens, Bulletin of the National Chamber of Greece, 1646, 15–52, 14 January 1991.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/180/1/documents/1991EDTEEEvinos.pdf (2154 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, The degradation of the role of Mathematics in education, Newspaper "Kathimerini", 10 December 1991.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/179/1/documents/1991KathimerMathem.pdf (178 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Comments on the draft curriculum of core courses (School of Civil Engineering NTUA, 1990), Athens, 1990.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1620/1/documents/1990_DK_SxedioProgrammatosSpoudwn_Searchable1.pdf (600 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Reliability and safety of the water resource system of Athens, Economicos Tachydromos, 47(1907), 44–48, 22 November 1990.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/119/1/documents/1990OikonTachydr.pdf (2912 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 333 pages, Kallipos, Athens, 2021.
Much is said and written about hydroclimatic hazards: storms, floods, droughts. Such hazards have existed and will always exist, while the usual scaremongering on them is of little help to avoid them. Instead, what is needed is a cool look at risk, based on measurement data, using scientific methodology, and ultimately employing technology in the service of reducing hazards and their consequences.
This is attempted in the book. Much of it is devoted to the theory of stochastics —the mathematical language for analysing extremes. Stochastics is a scientific area broader than statistics —according to the definition adopted in the book, statistics is part of stochastics. Another part is the theory of stochastic processes, in which time has a hypostasis that is typically absent in statistics. Thus, statistics is in relation to stochastic what statics are in relation to dynamics. The commonly used classical statistics (based on the assumption of independence) is a special case of stochastics and, as the book proves, is inappropriate for the subject. This does not mean that statistics are abandoned or underrepresented in the book. On the contrary, several new developments are presented —most notably the new tool of knowable moments, which have two relevant characteristics: they are closely connected to extremes and their estimation is unbiased in the framework of classical statistics or involves small (and determinable) bias in stochastic processes with dependence in time, whilst the bias in the estimation of classical statistical moments can be huge.
The new theoretical analyses are supported by mathematical proofs, which, to improve readability, are contained in a number of appendices in each of the 10 main chapters of the book. Along with the development of the theory, the book is oriented to the application, which is supported by a variety of examples, usually standing out as parenthetical sections or Digressions, as well as by tabulations of mathematical formulae that are used for each task.
Remarks:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2000/15/documents/StochasticsOfExtremes1.pdf (13157 KB)
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Lecture Notes on Urban Hydraulic Works - Water Supply, 83 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3559.7044, National Technical University of Athens, February 2015.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1518/1/documents/UHW_book.pdf (21617 KB)
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A. N. Angelakis, L.W. Mays, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Evolution of Water Supply Through the Millennia, 560 pages, IWA Publishing, London, 2012.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1220/4/documents/wio9781780401041_TdR2M54.pdf (25221 KB)
See also: http://books.google.gr/books?id=WxXu83RxSNwC
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
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| 1. | #Committee on Strategic Research for Integrated Water Resources Management, Delta Waters: Research to Support Integrated Water and Environmental Management in the Lower Mississippi River, Water Science and Technology Board - Division on Earth and Life Studies - National Research Council, The National Academies Press, 2013. |
| 2. | #Gibson, S., Charles Warren's Kidron Valley Tunnels, Bir Ayyub, and the Location of Biblical En Rogel, in: Exploring the Narrative: Jerusalem and Jordan in the Bronze and Iron Ages (ed. by N. Mulder, J. Boertien and E. van der Steen), Bloomsbury, London, 2014. |
| 3. | Freitas, L., M. J. Afonso, N. Devy-Vareta, J. M. Marques, A. Gomes and H. I. Chaminé, Coupling Hydrotoponymy and GIS Cartography: A Case Study of Hydrohistorical Issues in Urban Groundwater Systems, Porto, NW Portugal, Geographical Research, 10.1111/1745-5871.12051, 2014. |
| 4. | Angelakis , A. N., G. De Feo , P. Laureano and A. Zourou, Minoan and Etruscan hydro-technologies, Water, 5, 972-987, 10.3390/w5030972, 2013. |
| 5. | Mays, L. W., Use of cisterns during antiquity in the Mediterranean region for water resources sustainability, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 14 (1), 38-47, 2014. |
| 6. | Chaminé, H.I., M.J. Afonso and L. Freitas, From historical hydrogeological inventory through GIS mapping to problem solving in urban groundwater systems, European Geologist, 38, 31-39, 2014. |
| 7. | Mala-Jetmarova, H., A. Barton and A. Bagirov, A history of Water distribution systems and their optimization, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 15 (2), 224-235, 2015. |
| 8. | Kumar, P., Hydrocomplexity: Addressing water security and emergent environmental risks, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5827–5838, 10.1002/2015WR017342, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Design of Urban Sewer Networks, Edition 4, 180 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2169.1125, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2011.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/123/1/documents/2011DesignUrbanSewerNetworks_2.pdf (2532 KB)
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See also: http://hdl.handle.net/11419/5887
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Yfantis, D.K., D.K. Fountoulaki, and N.D. Yfantis, Styx water, myth and reality: An interpretation of its corrosiveness ..., Proc. 1st IWA Intern. Symp. on Water & Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, 155-161, 2006. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Probability and statistics for geophysical processes, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2300.1849/1, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2008.
Related works:
Full text:
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2300.1849/1
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | El-Shanshoury, G.I., Assessing the adequacy of probability distributions for estimating the extreme events of air temperature in Dabaa region, Arab Journal of Nuclear Science and Applications, 48 (2), 104-120, 2015. |
A. N. Angelakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Proceedings of the 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, 792 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.2511.1287, Heracleion, Crete, Greece, 2006.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1224/1/documents/2006WWTAC_1.pdf (91939 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2511.1287
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Laureano, P., Ancient water management techniques to counteract drought and desertification in the Mediterranean, Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 10 (4), 495-503, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Engineering Hydrology, Edition 3, 418 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.4856.0888, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1999.
Full text:
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See also: http://hdl.handle.net/11419/5888
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Niadas, I.A., Regional flow duration curve estimation in small ungauged catchments using instantaneous flow measurements and a censored data approach, Journal of Hydrology, 314(1-4), 48-66, 2005. |
| 2. | Veneziano, D., A. Langousis and P. Furcolo, Multifractality and rainfall extremes: A review, Water Resources Research, 42(6), W06D15, 2006. |
| 3. | Lombardo, F., F. Napolitano and F Russo, On the use of radar reflectivity for estimation of the areal reduction factor, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 6(3), 377-386, 2006. |
| 4. | Montesarchio, V., F. Lombardo, and F. Napolitano, Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: An operative case study, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(1), 135-144, 2009. |
| 5. | #Botsis, D., and P. Latinopoulos, Frequency analysis of rainfall and flooding extreme events in mountainous watersheds, Proceedings of the EYE-EEDYP Conference “Integrated Water Resource Management in Climate Change Conditions” (eds. A. Liakopoulos, V. Kanakoudis, E. Anastasiadou-Partheniou and V. Tsihrintzis), Volos, Greece, 139-146, 2009. |
| 6. | #Papaioannou, G., F.Maris and A. Loukas, Estimation of the erosion of the mountainous watershed of river Kosynthos, Proceedings of the EYE-EEDYP Conference “Integrated Water Resource Management in Climate Change Conditions” (eds. A. Liakopoulos, V. Kanakoudis, E. Anastasiadou-Partheniou and V. Tsihrintzis), Volos, Greece, 453-460, 2009. |
| 7. | #Veneziano, D., and A. Langousis, Scaling and fractals in hydrology, ch. 4 in Advances in Data-Based Approaches for Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting, 107-244, World Scientific, 2010. |
| 8. | #Mentzafou, A., and E. Dimitriou, Distributed hydrological and water quality modelling to analyze the fate of nitrate along a transboundary river, Recent Researches in Environment and Biomedicine: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Energy and Development - Environment - Biomedicine (EDEB '12); Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Geography and Geology (GEO '12), Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece, 79-84, 2012. |
| 9. | Maris, F. P., A new innovative Decision support system using fuzzy reasoning for the estimation of mountainous watersheds torrential risk (tor-sys). The case of River Kosynthos, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 21 (9 A), 2711-2721, 2012. |
| 10. | #Maris, F., P. Machtis and Α. Vasileiou, Estimation of the Mesovouno dam watershed sedimentation tendency, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 1238-1249, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
| 11. | #Galazoulas, Ε., and C. Petalas, Survey on the evolution of quantity characteristics of a coastal aquifer under long-term overexploitation and drought events, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 390-399, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
| 12. | Pisinaras, V., C. Petalas, V. A. Tsihrintzis and G. P. Karatzas, Integrated modeling as a decision-aiding tool for groundwater management in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed, Hydrological Processes, 27 (14), 1973-1987, 2013. |
| 13. | #Charchousi, D., V. K. Tsoukala and M. P. Papadopoulou, Benchmarking methodologies for water footprint calculation in agriculture, Win4Life Conference, Tinos Island, Greece, 2013. |
| 14. | Samaras, D. A., A. Reif and K. Theodoropoulos, Evaluation of radiation-based reference evapotranspiration models under different Mediterranean climates in Central Greece, Water Resources Management, 28 (1), 207-225, 2014. |
| 15. | Charchousi, D., V. K. Tsoukala and M. P. Papadopoulou, How evapotranspiration process may affect the estimation of water footprint indicator in agriculture?, Desalination and Water Treatment, 10.1080/19443994.2014.934118, 2014. |
| 16. | #Tsitroulis, I., K. Voudouris, A. Vasileiou, C. Mattas, M. Sapountzis, and F. Maris, Flood hazard assessment and delimitation of the likely flood hazard zones of the upper part in Gallikos river basin, Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, Vol. L, 995-1005, Proceedings of the 14th International Congress, Thessaloniki, 2016. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Statistical Hydrology, Edition 4, 312 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.5118.2325, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1997.
Related works:
Full text:
Additional material:
See also: http://hdl.handle.net/11419/5889
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Veneziano, D., and A. Langousis, The areal reduction factor: A multifractal analysis, Water Resources Research, 41 (7), W07008, 2005. |
| 2. | Singh, V.P., and L. Zhang, IDF curves using the Frank Archimedean copula, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 12(6), 651-662, 2007. |
| 3. | Karavitis, C. A., C. Chortaria, S. Alexandris,C. G. Vasilakou and D. E. Tsesmelis, Development of the standardised precipitation index for Greece, Urban Water Journal, 9 (6), 401-417, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Clausius-Clapeyron equation and saturation vapour pressure: Typical hydrometeorological calculations, 5 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.13548.08322/2, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2021.
All required equations for quantifying the presence of water vapour in the atmosphere are gathered in one page. They are physically consistent and accurate, and mathematically easy to use for meteorological and hydrological applications. Physical and mathematical details are given in two Appendices.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2113/1/documents/ClausiusClapeyron4.pdf (330 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Renewable Energy and Hydroelectric Works, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2020.
Remarks:
The course titled "Renewable Energy and Hydroelectric Works" is offered by the School of Civil Engineering (8th semester, optional) as well as the postgraduate program "Water Resources Science and Technology" (2nd semester).
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D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Pantazidou, N. Mamassis, G.-F. Sargentis, P. Thanopoulos, S. Lampropoulos, D Vamvatsikos, and K. Hadjibiros, Lecture Notes for the Laboratory on Humanities, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2020.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Historical and Philosophical Introduction to the Scientific Method, Lecture Notes for the Laboratory on Humanities, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19594.00963/1, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2020.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2019/1/documents/ScientificMethod6_.pdf (3094 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Hydraulics and Hydraulic Works: Sewage works, 72 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, December 2018.
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N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on renewable Energy and Hydroelectric Works, 327 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2018.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on stochastics, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Roma, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30801.84327, 2018.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Lecture notes on Hydraulics and Hydraulic Works: Aqueducts, 68 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2017.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Hydraulics and Hydraulic Works: Review of fluid mechanics and hydraulics, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2017.
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Related software (in Excel): PipePressureFlow - Calculations for pressurized flow in circular cross section pipes
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Stochastic Methods, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2017.
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A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Water Resources Management, 97 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2015.
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A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes: Urban stormwater drainage networks, 23 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, July 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1472/1/documents/2014UHWUrbanFloods.pdf (1057 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, A brief introduction to probability, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.12634.54722, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2014.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1427/1/documents/IntroductionToProbability_1.pdf (589 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Encolpion of stochastics: Fundamentals of stochastic processes, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10956.82564, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2013.
Most things are uncertain. Stochastics is the language of uncertainty. I believe the gospel of stochastics is the book by Papoulis (1991). However, as Papoulis was an electrical engineer, his approach may need some additions or adaptations in order to be applied to geophysical processes. The peculiarities of the latter are that (a) their modelling relies more on observational data because geophysical systems are too complex to be studied by theoretical reasoning and deduction, and theories are often inadequate; (b) the distinction signal vs. noise is meaningless; (c) the samples are small; (d) they are often characterized by long term persistence, which makes classical statistics inappropriate.
Having studied several hydroclimatic processes, I have derived in handwritten notes some equations useful for such processes. Having repeated such derivations several times, because I had forgotten that I had produced them before or lost the notes, I decided to produce this document. Some of the equations and remarks contained here can be found in other texts, particularly in Papoulis, but some other cannot. I believe they can be useful to other people, researchers and students.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1317/2/documents/StochasticEncolpion9_.pdf (1895 KB)
Additional material:
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.10956.82564
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Vertommen, I., R. Magini and M. da Conceição Cunha, Scaling Water Consumption Statistics, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000467, 04014072, 2014. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Stochastic Methods in Water Resources, Edition 4, 100 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2013.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture Notes on Hydrometeorology: A probability-based introduction to atmospheric thermodynamics, 45 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22700.87686, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2011.
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Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1167/1/documents/ProbabilityBasedAtmosphThermod08.pdf (1207 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture Notes on Hydrometeorology: Simple physical principles for complex systems, 19 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.36122.64967, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2011.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1166/1/documents/SimplePhysicalPrinciplesForComplexSystems_2.pdf (1133 KB)
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A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Water Resources Management - Part 2, 97 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2011.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Water technology and management in Ancient Greece: Legacies and lessons, 28 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.27314.61129, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, May 2007.
Remarks:
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D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Lecture notes on Urban Hydraulic Works - Part 1: Water Supply, 146 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2007.
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Additional material:
See also: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/courses/aye/index.html
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Yannopoulos, S., M. Spanothymniou and M. Spiliotis, Evaluation of the relative importance of the basic parameters of water distribution networks – investigation of technical specifications in Greece, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 1134-1147, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Water Resources Management - Part 1, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2007.
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A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Typical Hydraulic Works - Part 2: Water Distribution Networks, 90 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2006.
Related works:
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See also: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/courses/tye/index.html
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Emmanouil, S., and A. Langousis, UPStream: Automated hydraulic design of pressurized water distribution networks, SoftwareX, 6, 248-254, doi:10.1016/j.softx.2017.09.001, 2017. |
A. Katsiri, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Reservoirs: necessity, impacts and their management - Case study: the Tavropos reservoir, 67 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15570.56007, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 2005.
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A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Water Resource System Optimisation - Part 2, 140 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2004.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, The modern Athens water resource system and its management, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.22281.44643, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2002.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Water resources technologies in ancient Greece, 24 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25846.60483, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2002.
Remarks:
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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25846.60483
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Hoys, A.M.V., The importance of water in the ancient civilizations: Greece, Tecnologia del Agua, 26(276), 92-106, 2006. |
| 2. | #Niaounakis, M., and C.P. Halvadakis, Olive Mill Wastewater Management in Antiquity, Proceedings of the 1st IWA International Symposium on Water and Wastewater Technologies in Ancient Civilizations, Iraklio, Greece, 367-380, 2006. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Urban Hydraulic Works - Part 2: Sewerage, 35 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2000.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Water Resource System Optimisation - Part 1, Edition 2, 91 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2000.
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N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Hydrometeorology - Part 2, Edition 2, 176 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2000.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Hydrometeorology - Part 1, Edition 2, 157 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2000.
Related works:
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Laio, F., P. Allamano and P. Claps, Exploiting the information content of hydrological "outliers" for goodness-of-fit testing, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,14, 1909-1917, doi: 10.5194/hess-14-1909-2010, 2010. |
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Advanced Hydrology - Part 2, 65 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1999.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on Advanced Hydrology - Part 1, 52 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1999.
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D. Koutsoyiannis, Probabilistic and statistical methods in engineering hydrology, 24 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1994.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/206/1/documents/1994TEEProbStatHydr.pdf (855 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Topics of surface hydrology - Notes on training courses, Edition 2, 36 pages, National Technical University of Athens, 1994.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/204/1/documents/1994Epimorfwtika.pdf (1497 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Instructions for solving water supply networks, Edition 2, 25 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1990.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/203/1/documents/1990diktya.pdf (727 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Quantitative assessment of water resources - Estimation of mean, maximum and minimum flows, 31 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, May 1989.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1144/1/documents/PosotikhEktimhshYdatikwnPorwn.pdf (266 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological methods of flood routing, 16 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1988.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/205/1/documents/1988AnavysFldRt.pdf (361 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Lecture notes on river hydraulics and sedimentation engineering, 84 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1982.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/202/1/documents/1982Ferta.pdf (4230 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, A disaggregation model of point rainfall, PhD thesis, 310 pages, doi:10.12681/eadd/0910, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1988.
A general purpose one-dimensional disaggregation model has been developed, which is referred to as a "dynamic disaggregation model". The main features of the model are the step-by-step approach method and the dynamic modification of its parameter in each individual step. The currently developed form of the model has been specialized for variables following gamma distributions with Markovian structure. A second part of the study is concerned with the analysis and modelling of the rainfall process on hourly through monthly scale, based on rainfall data of the Aliakmon river basin, Northwestern Greece. The combination of the dynamic disaggregation model and the rainfall model gave a point rainfall model which disaggregates monthly rainfall into rainfall events and subsequently into hourly depths. This final model has been coded in pascal programming language and was able to run in conventional microcomputers.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/120/1/documents/1988DoctorThesisDK.pdf (18575 KB)
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See also: http://www.didaktorika.gr/eadd/handle/10442/0910
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Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Rupp, D. E., R. F. Keim, M. Ossiander, M. Brugnach and J. S. Selker, Time scale and intensity dependency in multiplicative cascades for temporal rainfall disaggregation, Water Resources Research, 45, W07409, doi:10.1029/2008WR007321, 2009. |
| 2. | Kalra, A., and S. Ahmad, Evaluating changes and estimating seasonal precipitation for the Colorado River Basin using a stochastic nonparametric disaggregation technique, Water Resources Research, 47, W05555, doi: 10.1029/2010WR009118, 2011. |
E. Karakosti, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Penetration of a jet into a counterflow, Diploma thesis, 192 pages, National Technical University of Athens, 1978.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/121/1/documents/1978DiplomaThesisDK.pdf (7407 KB)
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report: Development of a national monitoring system for surface water resources, Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net), Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Τεύχος 2.1, June 2019.
Related project: Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net)
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N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and A. Koukouvinos, Technical report: Specification analysis of OpenHi.net system, Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net), Contractor: Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 29 pages, Τεύχος 3.1, September 2018.
Specifications for the web-based software system OpenHi.net are defined and associated requirements refering to its operational characteristics, geographical components management, measurement stations and related (raw and processed) data, and provided services and applications, are concluded.
Related project: Open Hydrosystem Information Network (OpenHi.net)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1879/1/documents/OpenHi_Report3.pdf (1168 KB)
A. Koukouvinos, A. Efstratiadis, D. Nikolopoulos, H. Tyralis, A. Tegos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Case study in the Acheloos-Thessaly system, Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO), 98 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, October 2015.
This report describes the validation of methodologies and computer tools that have been developed in the context of the research project, in the interconnected river basin system of Acheloos and Peneios. The study area is modelled as a hypothetically closed and autonomous (in terms of energy balance) system, in order to investigate the perspectives of sustainable development at the peripheral scale, merely based on renewable energy.
Related project: Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1613/1/documents/Report_EE4a.pdf (8010 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, S.M. Papalexiou, Y. Markonis, P. Dimitriadis, and P. Kossieris, Stochastic framework for uncertainty assessment of hydrometeorological procesess, Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO), 231 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, January 2015.
Related project: Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1589/1/documents/Report_EE1.pdf (14753 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, E. Michailidi, E. Galiouna, K. Tzouka, A. D. Koussis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Description of regional approaches for the estimation of characteristic hydrological quantities, DEUCALION – Assessment of flood flows in Greece under conditions of hydroclimatic variability: Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools, Contractors: ETME: Peppas & Collaborators, Grafeio Mahera, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, National Observatory of Athens, 146 pages, September 2014.
The objective of the report is the systematic investigation and evaluation of regional relationships and associated event-based models that are applied in flood studies, through validating their predictions across the pilot basins of the project. The research focuses on the most popular, in Greece as well as globally, hydrological design procedure, which is based on the application of the SCS-CN method for the estimation of hydrological losses, combined with the unit hydrograph theory for the transformation of surface runoff to flood hydrograph at the basin outlet. In the report are investigated both the theoretical-conceptual background of the models as well as the procedure for estimating their basic input quantities (time of concentration, runoff curve number, initial abstraction ratio, initial soil moisture conditions). In this respect, we analyzed more than 100 flood events in 11 sites of interest, which we attempted to represent through several alternative approaches. The analyses showed that it is essential to revise critical aspects of the hydrological design. The most important are: (a) the correction of the time of concentration, as estimated by the Giandotti formula, according to the rainfall intensity; (b) the estimation of parameter CN of the SCS-CN method on the basis of three characteristic layers of spatial information and its adjustment for given initial abstraction ratio; (c) the application of a parametric synthetic unit hydrograph, the time parameters of which depend not only on the characteristics of the basin’s surface but also the mechanisms of the shallow soil; and (d) the statistically consistent estimation of the flood design quantities on the basis of the probabilities of occurrence of the design rainfall under dry, medium or wet antecedent soil moisture conditions.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1495/1/documents/Report_3_3.pdf (28157 KB)
N. Mamassis, K. Pipili, and D. Koutsoyiannis, [No English title available], , Contractor: Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, 2013.
Related project: Αποτίμηση της οικολογικής κατάστασης του ρ. Πικροδάφνης και προτάσεις αποκατάστασης, ανάδειξης και διαχείρισής του
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/2085/1/documents/ReportPikrodafniAA1.pdf (4886 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Description of methodology for intense rainfall analysis , DEUCALION – Assessment of flood flows in Greece under conditions of hydroclimatic variability: Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools, Contractors: ETME: Peppas & Collaborators, Grafeio Mahera, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, National Observatory of Athens, 55 pages, November 2012.
The objective of the research report is the investigation and implementation of the methodological framework for the statistical analysis of intense rains. In the report are initially reviewed the main concepts of statistical hydrology and are described the extreme statistical distributions, as well as other distributions of general use, which are applied for the analysis of intense rains. Moreover, we describe the statistical methods for the daily rainfall time series, which are employed within stochastic simulation models. Emphasis is given to the development of a methodology for constructing the idf (ombrian) curves, which are typical tools in hydrologic design. Finally, we present the computational system for the extraction of ombrian curves (Ombros software), and we explain it operation with regard to its theoretical context as well as from the end user perspective, by means of examples.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1296/1/documents/Report_3_2.pdf (1661 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, P. Dimitriadis, and A. Maheras, Litterature review of flood hydrology and related tools, DEUCALION – Assessment of flood flows in Greece under conditions of hydroclimatic variability: Development of physically-established conceptual-probabilistic framework and computational tools, Contractors: ETME: Peppas & Collaborators, Grafeio Mahera, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, National Observatory of Athens, 115 pages, October 2012.
The objective of the research report is the literature review of the theoretical framework of flood hydrology, which is branch of engineering hydrology. The research aims to a critical review of the world experience (in terms of methodologies as well as computer tools), and the practices that are employed within flood hydrology studies in Greece. The topics that are examined are: (a) fundamental concepts of flood hydrology are related processes; (b) characteristic hydrological magnitudes of river basins (physiographic properties, runoff coefficient, time of concentrations, curve number, unit hydrograph, time-area curves); (c) probabilistic assessment of extreme hydrological events; (d) methods for estimating design flows; (e) methods for estimating design hydrographs; (f) flood routing models; (g) computer packages; (h) Greek standards and practices.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1215/1/documents/Report_WP3_1_1.pdf (3203 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kastridis, A., and D. Stathis, Evaluation of hydrological and hydraulic models applied in typical Mediterranean ungauged watersheds using post-flash-flood measurements, Hydrology, 7(1), 12, doi:10.3390/hydrology7010012, 2020. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, Alternative Robust Energy Technologies for Environmental Sustainability (ARETES), Athens, 2011.
Full text:
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, WATer pathways towards the non-deterministic future of renewable enERGY (WATERGY), Athens, 2011.
This document is a proposal for ERC Advanced Grant, along with its reviews. Both versions of Part B1 of the proposal, which was submitted twice, initially in 2008 and later in 2011, are contained (Part B2 is not contained as it was not evaluated).
The initial (2008) version was also published as a scientific paper (see the link below).
Related works:
Full text:
Additional material:
I. Papakonstantis, P. Papanicolaou, V. Kotsioni, M. Hondros, C. Memos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final report, Integrated study for the investigation of the quantity, quality and recovery of the underwater springs of the Stoupa region in Municipality of Lefktros, Messinia, Contractors: Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Agricultural University of Athens, National Technical University of Athens, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2010.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1314/1/documents/EMP_Teyxos1.pdf (4224 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Papakonstantis, I. G., P. N. Papanicolaou and E. G. Kastrinakis, Capture of fresh water from submarine springs: case study in Stoupa of Messinia, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 682-693, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, and A. Efstratiadis, Summary report, Athens, Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 37 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, August 2008.
The subject and the objectives of the research project are summarized, comprising: (a) collection of hydrological, geographical and water use data and hydrosystem properties; (b) investigation of a proposed legal, financial and social framework for the management of Smokovo reservoir; (c) investigation of the operational framework of other reservoirs; (d) investigation of alternative means for the organization and operation of the Water Management Body; (e) formulation of an operational plan for water resources management; (f) formulation of alternative management scenarios and optimal operation of the reservoir, according various levels of hydrosystem development, and (h) the integration of data and processes to a computer system.
Related project: Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/875/1/documents/report5.pdf (906 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, and A. Efstratiadis, Final report, Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 4, 66 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, July 2008.
The subject and the objectives of the research project are presented, comprising: (a) collection of hydrological, geographical and water use data and hydrosystem properties; (b) investigation of a proposed legal, financial and social framework for the management of Smokovo reservoir; (c) investigation of the operational framework of other reservoirs; (d) investigation of alternative means for the organization and operation of the Water Management Body; (e) formulation of an operational plan for water resources management; (f) formulation of alternative management scenarios and optimal operation of the reservoir, according various levels of hydrosystem development, and (h) the integration of data and processes to a computer system.
Related project: Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/840/1/documents/report4_v4.pdf (1766 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Safiolea, E., C. Makropoulos, and M. Mimikou, Benefits and challenges in integrated water resources modeling using OpenMI: the case of the Pinios River basin, Greece, Integrating Water Systems - Proceedings of the 10th International on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI 2009, Sheffiled, 481-484, 2010. |
A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Alternative scenarios for the management and optimal operation of the Smokovo reservoir and the related works, Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 3, 104 pages, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, July 2008.
A range of scenarios for the management of the Smokovo reservoir and the related works are studied, taking into account the reservoir inflows, the development of works and the various water uses. In order to estimate inflows, a comprehensive hydrological investigation is carried out, based on the process of pluvial, meteorological, hydrometric and geographical data for the hydrosystem, and the representation of the natural processes using the semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrogeios. The model parameters are calibrated on the basis of historical runoff records in three system locations, which are reproduced with satisfactory accuracy. The resulted inflow sample is used for the generation of synthetic time series upstream of the dam, thorough model Castalia, which are input to the water management model Hydronomeas. Through the latter, various safe release scenarios are investigated for different water uses (irrigation, water supply, hydropower), depending on the works progress, and appropriate management policies are proposed, for short and long term horizon. The analyzes are implemented by means of a computer-based system that was developed for the project purposes, comprising databases and software tools.
Related project: Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/839/1/documents/report3_v4.pdf (2966 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Charizopoulos, N., and A. Psilovikos, Hydrologic processes simulation using the conceptual model Zygos: the example of Xynias drained Lake catchment (central Greece), Environmental Earth Sciences, doi:10.1007/s12665-016-5565-x, 2016. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Andreadakis, R. Mavrodimou, A. Christofides, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, G. Karavokiros, S. Kozanis, D. Mamais, and K. Noutsopoulos, National Programme for the Management and Protection of Water Resources, Support on the compilation of the national programme for water resources management and preservation, 748 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.25384.62727, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 2008.
Related project: Support on the compilation of the national programme for water resources management and preservation
Full text:
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Baltas, E. A., Climatic conditions and availability of water resources in Greece, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 24(4), 635-649, 2008 |
| 2. | Gikas, P., and G.Tchobanoglous, Sustainable use of water in the Aegean Islands, Journal of Environmental Management, 90(8), 2601-2611, 2009. |
| 3. | Gikas, P., and A.N.Angelakis, Water resources management in Crete and in the Aegean Islands, with emphasis on the utilization of non-conventional water sources, Desalination, 248 (1-3), 1049-1064, 2009. |
| 4. | Agrafioti, E., and E. Diamadopoulos, A strategic plan for reuse of treated municipal wastewater for crop irrigation on the Island of Crete, Agricultural Water Management, 105,57-64, 2012. |
| 5. | #Zafirakis, D., C. Papapostolou, E. Kondili, and J. K. Kaldellis, Water use in the electricity generation sector: A regional approach evaluation for Greek thermal power plants, Protection and Restoration of the Environment XI, 1459-1468, 2012. |
| 6. | Pisinaras, V., C. Petalas, V. A. Tsihrintzis and G. P. Karatzas, Integrated modeling as a decision-aiding tool for groundwater management in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed, Hydrological Processes, 27 (14), 1973-1987, 2013. |
| 7. | Efstathiou, G.A., C. J. Lolis, N. M. Zoumakis, P. Kassomenos and D. Melas, Characteristics of the atmospheric circulation associated with cold-season heavy rainfall and flooding over a complex terrain region in Greece, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 115 (1-2), 259-279, 2014. |
| 8. | #Antoniou, G. P., Residential rainwater cisterns in Ithaki, Greece, IWA Regional Symposium on Water, Wastewater & Environment: Traditions & Culture (ed. by I. K. Kalavrouziotis and A. N. Angelakis), Patras, Greece, 675-685, International Water Association & Hellenic Open University, 2014. |
| 9. | Kougioumoutzis, K., S.M. Simaiakis, and A. Tiniakou, Network biogeographical analysis of the central Aegean archipelago, Journal of Biogeography, 41 (10) 848-1858, 2014. |
| 10. | Zafirakis, D., C. Papapostolou, E. Kondili, and J. K. Kaldellis, Evaluation of water‐use needs in the electricity generation sector of Greece, International Journal of Environment and Resource, 3(3), 39-45, doi:10.14355/ijer.2014.0303.01, 2014. |
| 11. | Manakos, I., K. Chatzopoulos-Vouzoglanis, Z. I. Petrou, L. Filchev, and A. Apostolakis, Globalland30 Mapping capacity of land surface water in Thessaly, Greece, Land, 4 (1), 1-18, doi:10.3390/land4010001, 2015. |
| 12. | Kallioras, A., and P. Marinos, Water resources assessment and management of karst aquifer systems in Greece, Environmental Earth Sciences, 74(1), 83-100, doi:10.1007/s12665-015-4582-5, 2015. |
| 13. | #Grimpylakos , G., K. Albanakis, and T. S. Karacostas, Watershed size, an alternative or a misguided parameter for river’s waterpower? Implementation in Macedonia, Greece, Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences, Springer Atmospheric Sciences, 295-301, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-35095-0_41, 2017. |
| 14. | Tsangaratos, P. A. Kallioras , Th. Pizpikis, E. Vasileiou, I. Ilia, and F. Pliakas, Multi-criteria Decision Support System (DSS) for optimal locations of Soil Aquifer Treatment (SAT) facilities, Science of The Total Environment, 603–604, 472–486, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.238, 2017. |
| 15. | Soulis, K. X., and D. E. Tsesmelis, Calculation of the irrigation water needs spatial and temporal distribution in Greece, European Water, 59, 247-254, 2017. |
| 16. | Piria, M., P. Simonović, E. Kalogianni, L. Vardakas, N. Koutsikos, D. Zanella, M. Ristovska, A. Apostolou, A. Adrović, D. Mrdak, A. S. Tarkan, D. Milošević, L. N. Zanella, R. Bakiu, F. G. Ekmekçi, M. Povž, K. Korro, V. Nikolić, R. Škrijelj, V. Kostov, A. Gregori, and M. K. Joy, Alien freshwater fish species in the Balkans — Vectors and pathways of introduction, Fish and Fisheries, 19(1), 138–169, doi:10.1111/faf.12242, 2018. |
| 17. | Falalakis, G. and A. Gemitzi, A simple method for water balance estimation based on the empirical method and remotely sensed evapotranspiration estimates, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 22(2), 440-451, doi:10.2166/hydro.2020.182, 2020. |
| 18. | Laspidou, C. S., N. Mellios, A. Spyropoulou, D. Kofinas, and M. P. Papadopoulou, Systems thinking on the resource nexus: Modeling and visualisation tools to identify critical interlinkages for resilient and sustainable societies and institutions, Science of The Total Environment, 717, 137264, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137264, 2020. |
| 19. | Tzanakakis, V. A., A. N. Angelakis, N. V. Paranychianakis, Y. G. Dialynas, and G. Tchobanoglous, Challenges and opportunities for sustainable management of water resources in the island of Crete, Greece, Water, 12(6), 1538, doi:10.3390/w12061538, 2020. |
| 20. | Skrimizea, E., and C. Parra, An adaptation pathways approach to water management and governance of tourist islands: the example of the Southern Aegean Region in Greece, Water International, doi:10.1080/02508060.2020.1791683, 2020. |
A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Theoretical documentation of model for simulating and optimising the management of water resources "Hydronomeas", Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS), Contractor: NAMA, Report 9, 91 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 2007.
The subject of the report is the development of the software system HYDRONOMEAS, which is an operational tool for the management of complex water resource systems. The model is applicable to a wide range of hydrosystems, consisting of river branches, reservoirs, boreholes, pumping and hydropower stations, aqueduct networks, demand points, etc. After a general overview of the water resources management problem and a short presentation of some well-recognized decision support systems, we describe the theoretical background of the model, which implements the parameterisation-simulation-optimisation scheme. The former refers to the formulation of parametric control rules for the major infrastructures (reservoirs, boreholes), where the number of parameters is kept as low as possible. Simulation is applied to faithfully represent the processes. Specifically, real economic values in addition to virtual costs are assigned to network components to preserve the physical constraints and water use priorities, ensuring also the lowest-cost transportation path of water from the sources to the consumption. Finally, optimisation is applied to derive the optimal management policy on the basis of multiple performance criteria, thus ensuring simultaneous minimisation of the risk and cost of decision-making. Note that the modelling framework adopts a stochastic approach, providing predictions for all hydrosystem fluxes (storages, discharges, withdrawals) on the basis of synthetic scenarios of inflows. The last part of the report focus on the practical use of the model, as a stand-alone system as well as in co-operation with other modules developed within the ODYSSEUS research project.
Related project: Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/756/1/documents/report_9.pdf (2701 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Mackey, R., The climate dynamics of total solar variability, 16th Natural Resources Commission Coastal Conference 2007, Australia, 2007. |
| 2. | #Strosser P., J. Roussard, B. Grandmougin, M. Kossida, I. Kyriazopoulou, J. Berbel, S. Kolberg, J. A. Rodríguez-Díaz, P. Montesinos, J. Joyce, T. Dworak, M. Berglund, and C. Laaser, EU Water saving potential (Part 2 – Case Studies), Berlin, Allemagne, Ecologic – Institute for International and European Environmental Policy, 101 pp., 2007. |
N. Mamassis, R. Mavrodimou, A. Efstratiadis, M. Heidarlis, A. Tegos, A. Koukouvinos, P. Lazaridou, M. Magaliou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of alternative organisations and operations of a Water Management Body for the Smokovo projects, Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir, Report 2, 73 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 2007.
The framework regarding the establishment and operation of a water management body for the Smokovo reservoir and the related projects is investigated. The study area, as well as the responsibility area within it, is defined, and a short description of the characteristics for the physical and artificial system is made. The current legal and institutional framework is examined, on the basis of which various alternative schemes are proposed for the management body. Its legal and administrative status, the competence and the organogram are specified, and an initial financial analysis is attempted, to validate its viability. Finally, the next actions are proposed, regarding the organization of deliberations with the related organs.
Related project: Investigation of management scenarios for the Smokovo reservoir
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/720/1/documents/Smo_teyx2ekd3.pdf (2847 KB)
Additional material:
A. Efstratiadis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. Kozanis, Theoretical documentation of stochastic simulation of hydrological variables model "Castalia", Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS), Contractor: NAMA, Report 3, 61 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.30224.40966, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, September 2005.
This report describes a system for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic variables. More specifically, an original two-level multivariate scheme was introduced, appropriate for preserving the most important statistics of the historical time series and reproducing characteristic peculiarities of hydrologic processes such as persistence, periodicity and skewness. The mathematical model was implemented in a computer package, named Castalia, and it was applied for the generation of synthetic hydrologic time series within the simulation models the are components of the decision support systems for the management of hydro-systems.
Related project: Integrated Management of Hydrosystems in Conjunction with an Advanced Information System (ODYSSEUS)
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/742/1/documents/report_3.pdf (1377 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30224.40966
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Bekri, E., M. Disse, P. Yannopoulos, Optimizing water allocation under uncertain system conditions in Alfeios River Basin (Greece), Part A: Two-stage stochastic programming model with deterministic boundary intervals, Water, 7(10), 5305-5344, doi:10.3390/w7105305, 2015. |
| 2. | Bekri, E., M. Disse, P. Yannopoulos, Optimizing water allocation under uncertain system conditions in Alfeios River Basin (Greece), Part B: Fuzzy-boundary intervals combined with multi-stage stochastic programming Model, Water, 7(10), 6427-6466, doi:10.3390/w7116427, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and S. Kozanis, A simple Monte Carlo methodology to calculate generalized approximate confidence intervals, Research report, Contractor: [Not funded], doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33579.85286, Hydrologic Research Center, 2005.
Determination of confidence limits of distributional parameters (either marginal or dependence) and derivative quantities (e.g. distribution quantiles) is crucial for estimation of uncertainty and risk. Analytical determination is possible in few cases only. Monte Carlo simulation is a numerical method with the potential to determine confidence limits without restrictions. However, even Monte Carlo simulation is not as direct, general and easily applicable as it may seem. Existing direct solutions are exact only in limited cases whereas if applied in other cases may result in significant errors. Extending and generalizing existing solutions, a simple Monte Carlo simulation technique is studied that can determine good approximations of confidence limits in a general setting. The proposed method is partly heuristic and simultaneously so general that needs no assumptions about the statistical behavior of the statistics under study, i.e. it can perform for any distribution with any number of parameters, and for any distributional or derivative parameter. Only the theoretical probabilistic model is needed and all other calculations are done by a number of Monte Carlo simulations without additional assumptions. Some tests of the method in cases with analytically determined confidence limits indicate impressively good performance. Even though the method has been tested for independent sequences of random variables (random samples) its general formulation allows direct application in stochastic processes with any dependence structure, provided that a stochastic generator of the process of interest exists.
Remarks:
See the newer peer-reviewed version of this study:
An algorithm to construct Monte Carlo confidence intervals for an arbitrary function of probability distribution parameters
Related project: Research report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/692/1/documents/TN_25.pdf (295 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological flood study, Investigation and remedy of the stability problems of the banks and bed of the Philothei Creek using mathematical models and modern environmental methods, 22 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, September 2004.
Related project: Investigation and remedy of the stability problems of the banks and bed of the Philothei Creek using mathematical models and modern environmental methods
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/636/1/documents/2004ReportPodonifti.pdf (1778 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Yannopoulos, S., E. Eleftheriadou, E. Tzivani and I. Giannopoulou, Estimation of peak discharge in a small ungauged watershed based on IDF curves and synthetic unit hydrographs, Protection and Restoration of the Environment XI, 156-165, 2012. |
| 2. | Yannopoulos, S., E. Eleftheriadou, S. Mpouri, and I. Giannopoulou, Implementing the requirements of the European Flood Directive: the case of ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds, Environmental Processes, doi:10.1007/s40710-015-0094-2, 2015. |
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Final report, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Report 25, 135 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 2004.
The subject and the objectives of the integrated system for the modernisation of the supervising and management of the water resource system of Athens is presented along with the developed infrastructure, computational (geographical information system and central database) and measuring, and the organisation, processing and management of the necessary data. In addition, the software tools developed (Castalia, Hydrognomon, Hydronomeas and system for simulation of the hydrological cycle of the Boeoticos Kephisos - Yliki Basin), and the master plans for the management of the water resource system, which were elaborated in the framework of the second phase of the research project using these software tools, are also described. For all subsystems, reference is made to the operational integration of the system as a whole.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/621/1/documents/report25.pdf (3908 KB)
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydronomeas (version 3.2) - A system to support the management of water resources, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Report 24, 142 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 2004.
Within the framework of the project entitled "Updating of the supervision and management of the Athens water supply resources system", a software system named Hydronomeas (version 3.2) has been developed to support the water resources management by EYDAP. The methodology implemented (parameterisation-simulation-optimisation) is based mainly on an original theoretical work. The mathematical framework used allows the allocation of the water demand to the different system components, keeping the number of control variables small. This enables the simulation and optimisation of complex hydrosystems such as the one in this project. For the simulation process with a given operating rule, multiple, competitive targets and constraints with specified priorities can be set, which are concerned among others, with the acceptable limits for the system reliability. In performing optimisation, users can select between three objective functions: a) the minimisation of the average failure, b) the minimisation of the overall average operational cost and c) the maximisation of the overall guaranteed yield of the system for a given acceptable failure level. The model uses as input historic hydrological time series or synthetic time series. The results are given in probabilistic terms and include the probability of failure for each target, the analytical water balance and the storage forecast for reservoirs and the flow balance and discharge forecast for aqueducts.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/620/1/documents/report24.pdf (4619 KB)
Additional material:
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Castalia (version 2.0) - A system for stochastic simulation of hydrological variables, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Report 23, 103 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 2004.
Within the framework of the project entitled "Modernization of the supervision and management of the water resources for water supply of Athens", an operational system was developed for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic variables. More specifically, an original two-level multivariate scheme was introduced, appropriate for preserving the most important statistics of the historical time series and reproducing characteristic peculiarities of hydrologic processes such as persistence, periodicity and skewness. The mathematical model was implemented in a computer package, named Castalia, and it was applied for the generation of synthetic hydrologic time series within the simulation models the are components of the decision support system for the management of the Athens water supply system.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/619/1/documents/report23.pdf (3740 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Santana, R. F., and A. B. Celeste, Stochastic reservoir operation with data-driven modeling and inflow forecasting, Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, doi:10.1080/23249676.2021.1964389, 2021. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, A. Koukouvinos, A. Christofides, E. Rozos, A. Economou, and G. M. T. Tentes, Methodology and theoretical background, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Report 15, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 2004.
The methodology that was developed for the analysis of the water supply system of Athens, even though it was dictated by the special requirements of this particular system, has a broader character and a generalised orientation. In this respect, a series of publications in international scientific journals and communications in scientific conferences and workshops were done, so that the methodology becomes known to the international scientific community and raises its critique. These publications and communications are classified into two categories, with the fist one containing those referring to the core of the water supply system analysis, i.e., to the system optimisation based on the original methodology parameterisation-simulation-optimisation, and the second one containing those dealing with stochastic simulation and prediction of the hydrological inputs to the system. For a clear description and explanation of the methodology, the publications in scientific journals are reproduced in this volume and, for completeness, the summaries of the communications in conferences are included as well.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Ministry of Development, NTUA, Institute of Geological and Mining Research, and Centre for Research and Planning, Master plan for water resource management of the country, Completion of the classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 549 pages, Ministry of Development, Athens, January 2003.
Remarks:
See the newer version of this report:
National Programme for Water Resources Management and Preservation
Related works:
Related project: Completion of the classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of water resources in water districts of Greece
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, E. Rozos, Ch. Karopoulos, A. Nassikas, E. Nestoridou, and D. Nikolopoulos, Master plan of the Athens water resource system — Year 2002–2003, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Report 14, 215 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 2002.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/552/1/documents/2002eydapmasterplan.pdf (8797 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Second updating of simulations of the Athens water resource system for hydrologic year 2001-02, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 13b, 25 pages, Athens, April 2002.
Related works:
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, and D. Koutsoyiannis, First updating of simulations of the Athens water resource system for hydrologic year 2001-02, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 13a, 21 pages, Athens, February 2002.
Related works:
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological Study, Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake, Report 2, 70 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 2002.
To protect the Plastiras Lake, a high quality of the natural landscape and a satisfactory water quality must be ensured, the conflicting water uses and demands must be arranged and effective water management practices must be established. This report refers to the hydrological point-of-view of reservoir's operation, which is one of the three components of its management. The analysis is based on the collection and processing of the necessary geographical, hydrological and meteorological data. The main subject of the study is to investigate the safe yield capabilities for several minimum allowable reservoir level scenarios, by applying modern stochastic simulation and optimization methods. The final product is to propose suitable management policies, through which we can ensure the maximization of water supply and irrigation withdrawals for a high reliability level, after imposing the minimum reservoir level restriction.
Related project: Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/495/1/documents/2002PlastirasHydro.pdf (1120 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Loukas A., N. Mylopoulos, and L. Vasiliades, A modeling system for the evaluation of water resources management strategies in Thessaly, Greece, Water Resources Management, 21(10), 1673-1702, doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9120-5, 2007. |
| 2. | #Strosser P., J. Roussard, B. Grandmougin, M. Kossida, I. Kyriazopoulou, J. Berbel, S. Kolberg, J. A. Rodríguez-Díaz, P. Montesinos, J. Joyce, T. Dworak, M. Berglund, and C. Laaser, EU Water saving potential (Part 2 – Case Studies), Berlin, Allemagne, Ecologic – Institute for International and European Environmental Policy, 101 pp., 2007. |
| 3. | #Ευθυμίου, Γ., και Θ. Μπρουζιώτης, Η σημασία των παρόχθιων οικοσυστημάτων για τη διατήρηση της βιοποικιλότητας και της ποιότητας τοπίου – αναπτυξιακές δυνατότητες. Η περίπτωση δημιουργίας μικρών υγροτόπων στα περιθώρια υποβαθμισμένων οικολογικά λιμνών και ποταμών, για την ενίσχυση της βιοποικιλότητας, 2o Αναπτυξιακό Συνέδριο Νομού Καρδίτσας, Αναπτυξιακή Καρδίτσας, 2010. |
| 4. | #Loukas, A., S. Dervisis, and N. Mylopoulos, Analysis and evaluation of a water resources system: Sourpi basin, Greece, Protection and Restoration of the Environment XI, 233-242, 2012. |
| 5. | Giakoumakis, S., and C. Petropoulou, Simulating the operation of the Plastiras reservoir for different demand scenarios, Water Utility Journal, 25, 23-29, 2020. |
K. Hadjibiros, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Andreadakis, A. Katsiri, A. Stamou, A. Valassopoulos, A. Efstratiadis, I. Katsiris, M. Kapetanaki, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, K. Noutsopoulos, G.-F. Sargentis, and A. Christofides, Overview report, Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake, Report 1, 23 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 2002.
The Plastiras Lake is a reservoir used for irrigation, water supply, hydropower, and tourism. These uses are competitive and result in an especially complex problem of water management. In this report the problem is presented and the main points of the three parts of the project are summarised; these three parts are the hydrological study, the quality study, and the landscape study. The conflicting demands are arranged, and water release scenarios are suggested.
Related project: Investigation of scenarios for the management and protection of the quality of the Plastiras Lake
Full text:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Andreadakis, A., K. Noutsopoulos, and E. Gavalaki, Assessment of the water quality of Lake Plastira through mathematical modelling for alternative management scenarios, Global Nest: the International Journal, 5(2), pp 99-105, 2003. |
| 2. | #Karalis, S. and A . Chioni, 1-D Hydrodynamic modeling of Greek lakes and reservoirs, Ch. 59 in Environmental Hydraulics, Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Environmental Hydraulics (ed. by A. I . Stamou), Athens, Greece, 397–401, 2010. |
| 3. | Kalavrouziotis, I. K., A. Τ. Filintas, P. H. Koukoulakis, and J. N. Hatzopoulos, Application of multicriteria analysis in the management and planning of treated municipal wastewater and sludge reuse in agriculture and land development: the case of Sparti’s wastewater treatment plant, Greece, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 20(2), 287-295, 2011. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological investigation of intense rainfall and sediment yield in Thriasio, Assessment of sediment generation in Thriasio, 21 pages, School of Civil Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2001.
Related project: Assessment of sediment generation in Thriasio
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/800/1/documents/Thriasio3.pdf (1411 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Terti, G., P. Galiatsatou and P. Prinos, Effects of climate change on the estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (idf) curves, Proceedings of the 2nd Joint Conference of EYE-EEDYP "Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development" (Ed.: P. Giannopoulos and A. Dimas), 25-35, Patras, Greece, 2012. |
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Second updating of simulations of the Athens water resource system for hydrologic year 2000-01, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 17 pages, Athens, June 2001.
Related works:
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, First updating of simulations of the Athens water resource system for hydrologic year 2000-01, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 14 pages, Athens, February 2001.
Related works:
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
D. Zarris, E. Lykoudi, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final Report, Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 243 pages, October 2001.
Related project: Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams
Full text:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Sigalos, G., V. Loukaidi, S. Dasaklis and A. Alexouli-Livaditi, Assessment of the quantity of the material transported downstream of Sperchios River, Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece, XLIII (2), 737-745, 2010. |
| 2. | Panagopoulos, Y., C. Makropoulos and M. Mimikou, Diffuse surface water pollution: driving factors for different geoclimatic regions, Water Resources Management, 25 (14), 3635-3660, 2011. |
| 3. | Karamesouti, M., G.P. Petropoulos, I.D. Papanikolaou, O. Kairis and K. Kosmas, Erosion rate predictions from PESERA and RUSLE at a Mediterranean site before and after a wildfire: Comparison & implications, Geoderma, 261, 44-58, 2016. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, D. Grintzia, N. Damianoglou, Ch. Karopoulos, S. Nalpantidou, A. Nassikas, D. Nikolopoulos, A. Xanthakis, and K. Ripis, Master plan of the Athens water resource system — Year 2001–2002, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 13, Athens, December 2001.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/487/2/documents/report13.pdf (8130 KB)
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Collins, R., P. Kristensen and N. Thyssen, Water Resources Across Europe—Confronting Water Scarcity and Drought, ISSN 1725-9177, 56 pp., European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, 2009. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Final Report of Phase A, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Report 12, 63 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 2000.
The main components of the first phase of the research project are presented. Specifically, the subject and the objectives of the integrated system for the modernisation of the supervising and management of the water resource system of Athens is presented along with the developed infrastructure, computational and measuring, and the organisation, processing and management of the necessary data. In addition, the software tools developed, and the first master plan for the management of the water resource system, which was elaborated in the framework of the research project using these software tools, are also described. Finally, the actions required for the operational integration of the system are summarised.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/418/1/documents/report12.pdf (1117 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, G. Karavokiros, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, D. Grintzia, N. Damianoglou, A. Xanthakis, S Politaki, and V. Tsoukala, Master plan of the Athens water resource system - Year 2000-2001, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 5, 165 pages, Athens, December 2000.
The master plan for the operation of the Athens water resource system for the hydrological year 2000-20001 deals first with issues on the relations between the different organisations involved in the water supply of Athens, i.e., the Water Supply and Sewage Company of Athens, the Infrastructure Company for Water Supply and Sewage of Athens and a number of ministries. Projections of the water demand and the related water resources availability are studied in the form of future scenarios for which optimised system operating rules are drawn. The scenarios consider the phenomenon of the drought persistence as well as various possible emergency incidents. Operating cost estimates are also given together with elements on the environmental dimensions of the subject. Finally, estimates of the system safe yield and of the energy consumption for pumping water are presented in detail.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/356/1/documents/2000EYDAPMasterplan.pdf (1616 KB)
Additional material:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Getimis, P., K. Bithas and D. Zikos, Key actors, institutional framework and participatory procedures, for the sustainable use of water in Attica-basin, Proc. 7th Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Syros, Greece, 243-252, 2001. |
| 2. | #Minasidou K., D. F. Lekkas, A. D. Nikolaou, and S. K. Golfinopoulos, Water quality changes during storage - the case of Mornos reservoir, Proceedings, Protection and Restoration of the Environment VIII, Mykonos, Greece, 2006. |
| 3. | Stergiouli, M. L., and K. Hadjibiros, The growing water imprint of Athens (Greece) throughout history, Regional Environmental Change, 12(2), 337-345, 2012. |
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydronomeas (version 2): A system for the support of the water resources management, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 11, 84 pages, Athens, December 2000.
A software system named Hydronomeas (version 2.0) has been developed to support the water resources management policy of EYDAP. The methodology implemented (parametrization-simulation-optimization) is based mainly on an original theoretical work. The mathematical framework used allows the allocation of the water demand to the different system components, keeping the number of control variables small. This enables the simulation and optimisation of complex hydrosystems such as the water resource system of Athens. For the simulation process with a given operating rule, multiple, competitive targets and constraints with specified priorities can be set, which are concerned among others, with the acceptable limits for the system reliability. In performing optimisation, users can select between three objective functions: a) the minimisation of the average failure, b) the minimisation of the overall average operational cost and c) the maximisation of the overall firm yield of the system for an acceptable failure level. The model uses as input historic hydrological time series or synthetic time series. The results are given in probabilistic terms and include the probability of failure for each target, the analytical water balance for reservoirs, the flow balance for aqueducts, and economical data of the system operation.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/355/1/documents/2000EYDAPHydronomeas.pdf (1278 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Castalia: A system for the stochastic simulation of hydrological variables, Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Report 9, 70 pages, Athens, December 2000.
A mathematical model was developed for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic variables. More specifically, an original two-level multivariate scheme was introduced, appropriate for preserving the essential statistics of the historical time series and reproducing characteristic peculiarities of hydrologic processes such as persistence and periodicity. The mathematical model was implemented in a computer package, named Castalia, and it was applied for the generation of synthetic rainfall, runoff and evaporation time series for the reservoirs of the Athens water supply system.
Related project: Modernisation of the supervision and management of the water resource system of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/343/1/documents/2000EYDAPCastalia.pdf (7045 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Xenos, D., C. Karopoulos and E. Parlis, Modern confrontation of the management of Athens' water supply system, Proc. 7th Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Syros, Greece, 952-958, 2001. |
H. S. Wheater, V. S. Isham, C. Onof, R. E. Chandler, P. J. Northrop, P. Guiblin, S. M. Bate, D. R. Cox, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data, Technical Report 204, Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data, Contractor: Imperial College, London, 170 pages, doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3791.1286, University College London, London, 2000.
Related project: Generation of spatially consistent rainfall data
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/114/1/documents/2000ICMAFF.pdf (4204 KB)
See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.3791.1286
Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Chandler, R.E., and H.S. Wheater, Analysis of rainfall variability using generalized linear models, A case study from the west of Ireland, Water Resources Research, 38(10), 1192, 2002. |
| 2. | Wheater, H.S., Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling, Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., A, 360 (1796), 1409-1431, 2002. |
| 3. | Wheater, H.S., R.E. Chandler, C.J. Onof, V.S. Isham, E. Bellone, C. Yang, D. Lekkas, G. Lourmas & M.L. Segond, Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation, Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 19(6), 403-416, 2005. |
| 4. | Yang, C, R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and H.S. Wheater, Spatial-temporal rainfall simulation using generalized linear models, Water Resources Research, 41(11), W11415, 2005. |
| 5. | Yang, C., R.E. Chandler, V.S. Isham and H.S. Wheater, Quality control for daily observational rainfall series in the UK, Water and Environment Journal, 20(3), 185-193, 2006 |
| 6. | #Paulson, K.S., and X. Zhang, The simulation of rain fade on arbitrary microwave link networks, Proceedings of European Conference on Antennas and Propagation, EuCAP 2009, art. no. 5067637, 350-354, 2009. |
| 7. | Segond, M.-L., and C. Onof, Modelling of space-time rainfall for three UK regions, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management, 162 (2), 147-158, 2009. |
| 8. | #Qin, J., M. Leonard, G. Kuczera, M. Thyer, A. Metcalfe and M. Lambert, A high-resolution hierarchical space-time framework for single storm events and its application for short-term rainfall forecasting, IAHS Publication 333, 330-340, 2009. |
| 9. | Paulson, K., L. Luini, N. Jeannin, B. Gremont and R. Watson, A review of Channel simulators for heterogeneous microwave networks, IEEE Antennas and Propagation Magazine, 2012. |
| 10. | Kaczmarska, J., V. Isham and C. Onof, Point process models for fine-resolution rainfall, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (11), 1972-1991,2014. |
| 11. | Trombe, P. J., P. Pinson and H. Madsen, Automatic classification of offshore wind regimes with weather radar observations, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, , 7 (1), 116-125, 10.1109/JSTARS.2013.2252604, 2014. |
| 12. | Jung, Y., H. Kim, J. Baik and M. Choi, Rain-gauge network evaluations using spatiotemporal correlation structure for semi-mountainous regions, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 25 (2), 267-278, 2014. |
| 13. | Kaczmarska, J.M., V.S. Isham and P. Northrop, Local generalised method of moments: An application to point process-based rainfall models, Environmetrics, 26 (4), 312-325, 2015. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, The water supply system of Athens, Development of legislation framework for the drinking water of Athens, 11 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 1999.
Related project: Development of legislation framework for the drinking water of Athens
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/801/1/documents/perigraf1.pdf (660 KB)
D. Zarris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final Report of Phase A, Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams, 97 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, October 1999.
Related project: Appraisal of river sediment deposits in reservoirs of hydropower dams
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/259/1/documents/er9_1.pdf (25374 KB)
I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final Report of Phase C, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3, Report 41, 100 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 1999.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3
Full text:
G. Karavokiros, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mandellos, Model development for simulation and optimisation of the Eastern Sterea Hellas hydrosystem, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3, Report 40, 161 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 1999.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 3
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/135/1/documents/er4_40.pdf (23538 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and M. Mimikou, Terms and specifications for hydrological data entry, National databank for hydrological and meteorological information - Hydroscope 2000, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 176 pages, May 1997.
Related project: National databank for hydrological and meteorological information - Hydroscope 2000
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/364/1/documents/1997YdroskopProdiag.pdf (13199 KB)
I. Nalbantis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final Report, Upgrading and updating of hydrological information of Thessalia, Report 4, 78 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 1997.
Related project: Upgrading and updating of hydrological information of Thessalia
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/186/1/documents/er5_4.pdf (16354 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Panagopoulos, Y. , C. Makropoulos, A. Gkiokas, M. Kossida, L. Evangelou, G. Lourmas, S. Michas, C. Tsadilas, S. Papageorgiou, V. Perleros, S. Drakopoulou, M. Mimikou, Assessing the cost-effectiveness of irrigation water management practices in water stressed agricultural catchments: The case of Pinios, Agricultural Water Management, 139, 31-42, 2014. |
Team of the YBET96 project, Master plan for the country's water resource management, Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of the water resources of Greece using geographical information systems, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 339 pages, Ministry of Development, Athens, November 1996.
Related works:
Related project: Classification of quantitative and qualitative parameters of the water resources of Greece using geographical information systems
AFORISM final report authoring team, Final report, AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control, Contractor: University of Bologna, 568 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Bologna, April 1996.
Related project: AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control
Full text:
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydroscope II - A preliminary application to the Thessaly water district - Final Report, Hydroscope II - Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, 41 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, September 1996.
Related project: Hydroscope II - Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/187/1/documents/er8_te.pdf (24563 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, G. Tsakalias, N. Mamassis, and A. Koukouvinos, Surface water resources, Integrated management of the riparian ecosystem of the Sperhios river, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 16 pages, 1995.
The hydrologic characteristics of the Sperchios river basin are presented and analysed. To this aim all hydrologic measurements of the Sperchios basin, starting at 1949, as well as measurements at neighbouring hydrologic basins have been collected and compiled. Special emphasis was given to the discharge measurements at the locations Kastri Bridge and Kompotades Bridge, which had remained unprocessed until today. From the records formed, the surface water potential of the Sperchios basin is estimated, which proves to be one of the most important in the water district of the Eastern Sterea Hellas. Furthermore, a trend analysis for the rainfall and runoff series is presented, which indicates the existence of falling trends in both series. Finally, forecasts of the flood discharge at various locations along the Sperchios river for different return periods are provided.
Related project: Integrated management of the riparian ecosystem of the Sperhios river
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/381/1/documents/1995SperhiosWatRes.pdf (313 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. Marinos, Final Report of Phase B, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2, Report 32, 95 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, September 1995.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/127/1/documents/er4_32.pdf (30107 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kallioras, A., and P. Marinos, Water resources assessment and management of karst aquifer systems in Greece, Environmental Earth Sciences, 74(1), 83-100, doi:10.1007/s12665-015-4582-5, 2015. |
G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Stage-discharge curves and derivation of discharges, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2, Report 19, 125 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, September 1995.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/62/1/documents/er4_19.pdf (8973 KB)
G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, A pilot model for the management of the reservoir system for the water supply of Athens, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2, Report 14, 52 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, November 1995.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/15/1/documents/er4_14.pdf (3929 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Manetas, Computer software for the construction of IDF curves - User's manual, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2, Report 13, 41 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, November 1995.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/14/1/documents/er4_13.pdf (4249 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Manetas, A model of stochastic simulation of hydrological time series using a simple disaggregation technique - User's manual, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2, Report 12, 57 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, November 1995.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/13/1/documents/er4_12.pdf (5366 KB)
A. Manetas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Upgrade of the computational environment for the hydrological data processing, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2, Report 11, 23 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, November 1995.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/12/1/documents/er4_11.pdf (2583 KB)
NTUA Hydroscope Team, HYDROSCOPE, User manual for the database and applications for hydrology and meteorology, Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 180 pages, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1994.
Related project: Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/338/1/documents/er1_1-73.pdf (13830 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, Third Annual Report (1993-1994), Contribution of the National Technical University of Athens research team, AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control, Contractor: University of Bologna, 13 pages, Bologna, 1994.
Related project: AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control
Full text:
NTUA Committee for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, and Workteam for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, Selection of network routers, Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, Report 1/9, 73 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 1993.
Related project: Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/323/1/documents/er1_1-9.pdf (8194 KB)
NTUA Committee for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, and Workteam for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, Selection of modems, Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, Report 1/10, 51 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, January 1993.
Related project: Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/322/1/documents/er1_1-10.pdf (5964 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Second Annual Report (1992-1993), Contribution of the National Technical University of Athens research team, AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control, Contractor: University of Bologna, 11 pages, Bologna, September 1993.
Related project: AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/257/1/documents/1993Aforism2.pdf (122 KB)
NTUA Committee for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, and Workteam for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, Selection of data base management system (DBMS), Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, Report 1/2, 53 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, July 1992.
Related project: Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/320/1/documents/er1_1-2.pdf (5638 KB)
NTUA Committee for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, and Workteam for the Selection of Hydroscope Infrastructure, Selection of basic computer equipment, Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, Report 1/1, 102 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1992.
Related project: Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/267/1/documents/er1_1-1.pdf (11265 KB)
P. Papanicolaou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Guidelines for the layout of deliverable reports, Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information, Report 0/1, 16 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, July 1992.
Related project: Hydroscope: Creation of a National Databank for Hydrological and Meteorological Information
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/266/1/documents/er1_0-1.pdf (1511 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, First Annual Report (1991-1992), Contribution of the National Technical University of Athens research team, AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control, Contractor: University of Bologna, 74 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Bologna, June 1992.
Related project: AFORISM: A comprehensive forecasting system for flood risk mitigation and control
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, Final Report of Phase A, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 1, Report 10, 71 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, October 1992.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 1
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/11/1/documents/er4_10.pdf (7030 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Computer programmes for stochastic simulation of hydrologic time series, Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 1, Report 7, 87 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, October 1992.
Related project: Evaluation of Management of the Water Resources of Sterea Hellas - Phase 1
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/8/1/documents/er4_7.pdf (7769 KB)
I. Nalbantis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Final report, Assessment of methodology and results, A pilot study for the management of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, April 1991.
Related project: A pilot study for the management of the Louros and Arachthos watersheds
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/260/1/documents/er10_1.pdf (1302 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Conclusions Summary, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2, Report 19, 48 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1990.
Related works:
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/360/1/documents/er3_19.pdf (2886 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Th. Xanthopoulos, and M. Aftias, Final Report, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2, Report 18, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1990.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/165/1/documents/er3_18a_teliko.pdf (10248 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Kaika, M., Constructing scarcity and sensationalising water politics: 170 days that shook Athens, Antipode, 35(5), 919-954, 2003. |
N. Stavridis, S. Roti, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Study of upgrading the hydrometeorological network of the Mornos and Evinos basins, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2, Report 17, 79 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 1990.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, and C. Tsolakidis, Operation scheduling of the existing water supply system, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2, Report 16, 75 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1990.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/163/1/documents/er3_16.pdf (5695 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and I. Nalbantis, Stochastic simulation of hydrological variables, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2, Report 13, 313 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, March 1990.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and I. Nalbantis, Capacity assessment of the present Mornos-Yliki supply system, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2, Report 8, 87 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, October 1989.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 2
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/152/1/documents/er3_8.pdf (8201 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Final report of the first phase, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1, Report 7, 114 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 1989.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/151/1/documents/er3_7.pdf (24978 KB)
S. Roti, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Study of monthly hydrometeorological data, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1, Report 6, 288 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 1989.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1
Full text:
G. Tsakiris, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final report, Investigation of use of stormwater for irrigation - Application to the area of Archanes municipality, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 150 pages, 1988.
Related project: Investigation of use of stormwater for irrigation - Application to the area of Archanes municipality
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/362/1/documents/1988Archanes.pdf (5767 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, and J. Tzeranis, Drawings-Maps, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Stage and discharge data, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Appendix Δ2, 589 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, October 1988.
Related works:
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Stage and discharge data, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Appendix Δ, 559 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, October 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Final Report, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 7, 105 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/246/1/documents/er6_7.pdf (8923 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Chatzinikolaou, Y., A. Ioannou and M. Lazaridou, Intra-basin spatial approach on pollution load estimation in a large Mediterranean river, Desalination, 250 (1), 118-129, 2010. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Monthly data processing, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 6, 354 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Hydrological study for minimum flows of Pinios river, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 5, 35 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, May 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/244/1/documents/er6_5.pdf (3824 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Design Floods, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 4, 107 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/243/1/documents/er6_4.pdf (8318 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Rainfall depth-duration-frequency curves, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 3, 501 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Hydrometeorological measurement stations, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 2, 124 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, June 1988.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/241/1/documents/er6_2.pdf (15686 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and J. Tzeranis, 2nd preliminary report: Approximate water budget of the Mornos watershed, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1, 32 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, April 1988.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/166/1/documents/er3_keno.pdf (3956 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Computer programmes for hydrological data archiving end processing, Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1, Report 5, 71 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1988.
Related project: Appraisal of existing potential for improving the water supply of greater Athens - Phase 1
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/149/1/documents/er3_5.pdf (7444 KB)
S. Tsimpidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological investigation, Environmental impacts of the irrigation project in the lake Mikri Prespa, Florina, Phase A, Contractor: Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, 1987.
Related project: Environmental impacts of the irrigation project in the lake Mikri Prespa, Florina, Phase A
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Discharge measurements, Stage-discharge curves, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Appendix E, 197 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1987.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, and J. Tzeranis, Rainfall data, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Appendix 3, 814 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1987.
Related works:
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, and J. Tzeranis, Rainfall data, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Appendix 2, 69 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1987.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/248/1/documents/er6_parvita.pdf (3872 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Review of hydrologic data and analyses of earlier studies, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Appendix 1, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, May 1987.
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Roti, J. Tzeranis, and Th. Xanthopoulos, Computer programs for hydrological data archiving and processing, Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin, Report 1, 74 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1987.
Related works:
Related project: Hydrological investigation of the Thessalia water basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/240/1/documents/er6_1.pdf (6196 KB)
Th. Xanthopoulos, A. Katsiri, A. Andreadakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and L. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Final report, Water quality and assimilative capacity investigations of Kalamas river and lake Pamvotis (Ioannina), 341 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, December 1984.
Related project: Water quality and assimilative capacity investigations of Kalamas river and lake Pamvotis (Ioannina)
Full text:
N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Water and energy in 21th century. Views on hydroelectric production, Conference of EYDAP employees union for the world water day, Athens, 21 March 2016.
Various views of hydroelectricity production are presented
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1605/1/documents/21_3_2016_eydap.pdf (2477 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and H. H. G. Savenije, Guidelines for the use of units, symbols and equations in hydrology, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.10775.21922, 2013.
Remarks:
Prepared by D. Koutsoyiannis (Hydrological Sciences Journal) and H.H.G. Savenije (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences), 2013; also discussed by G. Blöschl (Chairman of the 2013 Ad Hoc Meeting of Editors of Hydrological Journals), A. Bardossy (Journal of Hydrology), Z.W. Kundzewicz (Hydrological Sciences Journal), I.G. Littlewood (Hydrology Research), A. Montanari (Water Resources Research) and D. Walling (Hydrological Processes). Please report any suggestions you may have to dk@ntua.gr. For more information see: (i) SI brochure (8th edition; http://www.bipm.org/en/si/si_brochure/); (ii) ISO 80000-2 Standard (Mathematical Signs and Symbols to Be Used in the Natural Sciences and Technology; not in open access); (iii) Unicode Technical Report #25 (Unicode Support for Mathematics; http://www.unicode.org/reports/tr25).
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1406/1/documents/GuidelinesForUnitsAndNotation3.pdf (285 KB)
P. Papanicolaou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Stamou, Guidelines for the presentation of academic works in the Department of Water Resources & Environmental Engineering, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 2012.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1323/1/documents/DWREE_InstructionsForReports.pdf (1843 KB)
G. Karavokiros, A. Efstratiadis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydronomeas: A system for supporting water resources management, 8 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 2002.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/499/1/documents/Hydronomeas_info.pdf (1579 KB)
A. Christofides, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrognomon: A database for hydrological and meteorological time series and a processing system of time series, 16 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 2002.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/498/1/documents/hydrognomon_presentation.pdf (400 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Michas, S.N., M.N. Pikounis, I. Nalbantis, P.L. Lazaridou and E.I. Daniil, On the hydrologic analysis for water resources management in Aegean Islands, Proceedings, Protection and Restoration of the Environment VIII, Mykonos, Greece, 2006. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Efstratiadis, Castalia: A system for stochastic simulation of hydrologic variables, 6 pages, Department of Water Resources, Hydraulic and Maritime Engineering – National Technical University of Athens, Athens, February 2002.
Related works:
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/497/1/documents/Kastalia_info.pdf (285 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Memories.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1775/1/documents/1978GraptoPeiramatikhYdraylikh1.pdf (2169 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and A. Koukouvinos, Technical report: Investigation of flood flows in the river basin of Almopaios, Pleriminary study of Almopaios dam, Commissioner: Roikos Consulting Engeineers S.A., Contractors: , 43 pages, July 2014.
Related project: Pleriminary study of Almopaios dam
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1840/1/documents/2014AlmopaiosReport.pdf (1110 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, A. Koukouvinos, N. Mamassis, S. Baki, Y. Markonis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, [No English title available], , Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, Contractor: Exarhou Nikolopoulos Bensasson, 205 pages, February 2013.
A. Koukouvinos, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, Y. Markonis, S. Baki, and D. Koutsoyiannis, [No English title available], , Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, Contractor: Exarhou Nikolopoulos Bensasson, 144 pages, February 2013.
A. Stamou, D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Technical Report, Investigation of the hydrographic network development in Mavro Vouno, Grammatiko, Attica, Greece, Commissioner: Perifereiako Tameio Anaptyxis Attikis, Contractors: A. Stamou, D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, 40 pages, Athens, 2012.
Related project: Investigation of the hydrographic network development in Mavro Vouno, Grammatiko, Attica, Greece
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1228/1/documents/2012ReportGrammatiko.pdf (7732 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Y. Markonis, A. Koukouvinos, S.M. Papalexiou, N. Mamassis, and P. Dimitriadis, Hydrological study of severe rainfall in the Kephisos basin, Greece, Study of the management of Kephisos , Commissioner: General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: Exarhou Nikolopoulos Bensasson, Denco, G. Karavokiris, et al., 154 pages, Athens, 2010.
Related project: Study of the management of Kephisos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/970/1/documents/2010AthensOmbrian__.pdf (6638 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and Y. Markonis, Hydrological study of the Xerias Basina, Magnesia, Greece, Study of urgent flood protection works of the Xerias, Seskouliotis and Kakaviotis streams, Commissioner: Prefectural Government of Magnesia, Contractor: Grafeio Mahera, Athens, 2010.
Related project: Study of urgent flood protection works of the Xerias, Seskouliotis and Kakaviotis streams
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/966/1/documents/Xhrias_flood_final5.pdf (1688 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Y. Markonis, A. Koukouvinos, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological study of Arachthos floods, Delineation of the Arachthos River bed in the town of Arta, Commissioner: Municipality of Arta, Contractors: ADK - Aronis Drettas Karlaftis Consulting Engineers, YDROTEK, V. Mouzos, 272 pages, 2010.
Related project: Delineation of the Arachthos River bed in the town of Arta
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/950/1/documents/2010Arachthos_floods.pdf (3770 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Efstratiadis, Essential works to ensure the established ecological flow, Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: ECOS Consultants S.A., 22 pages, Athens, May 2009.
Related project: Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/943/1/documents/ETM_projects.pdf (995 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Efstratiadis, Investigation of ecological flow, Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: ECOS Consultants S.A., 88 pages, Athens, May 2009.
Related project: Specific Technical Study for the Ecological Flow from the Dam of Stratos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/942/1/documents/ecological_flow.pdf (1567 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Consultative report for the flood of the 12/2005-2/2006 in the region of Lower Acheloos in Aetoloacarnania, Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractors: D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, 29 pages, June 2008.
Related project: Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1162/1/documents/Str_ekt08.pdf (2175 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, On the method selection for areal integration of point rainfall in the Aegean islands - Technical memo, Development of tools for the water resource management of the hydrological district of Aegean islands, Commissioner: Ministry of Development, Contractors: TEM, LDK, Ydroexigiantiki, TERRAMENTOR, 4 pages, Athens, 2005.
Related project: Development of tools for the water resource management of the hydrological district of Aegean islands
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/814/1/documents/2005BroxAigaio.pdf (267 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Consultative report for the flood of December 1996 in the region of Lower Acheloos in Aetoloacarnania, Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractors: D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, 18 pages, Athens, June 2005.
Related project: Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/732/1/documents/2005Acheloos_flood_1996.pdf (1602 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Consultative report for the flood of December 2002 in the region of Limne Nesiou, Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractors: D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, 13 pages, Athens, February 2005.
Related project: Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/731/1/documents/2005Edess_flood_2002.pdf (731 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Consultative report for the flood of March 1999 in the region of Limne Nesiou, Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractors: D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, 12 pages, Athens, May 2005.
Related project: Technical consulting for the floods of Lower Acheloos and Edesseos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/730/1/documents/2005Edess_flood_1999.pdf (697 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Infiltration and inflows in the foul sewer network of the Municipality of Ellomeno in Leukas, Study of sewerage and wastewater treatment of the Municipality of Ellomeno in Leukas, Contractors: , 11 pages, Athens, 2004.
Related project: Study of sewerage and wastewater treatment of the Municipality of Ellomeno in Leukas
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/816/1/documents/2004VasilopLeykada.pdf (306 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Rainfall idf curves for the Kanavari-Dombrena-Prodromos road, Hydraulic study for drainage of the Kanavari-Dombrena-Prodromos road, Commissioner: Prefectural Government of Boeotia, Contractor: D. Argyropoulos, 9 pages, Athens, 2004.
Related project: Hydraulic study for drainage of the Kanavari-Dombrena-Prodromos road
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/813/1/documents/2004IdfThisvi.pdf (365 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Characterization of the size of Zaravina lake in Delvinaki area of the prefecture of Ioannina, Commissioner: P. Mentzos, Contractor: D. Koutsoyiannis, 35 pages, Athens, 2004.
Related project: Characterization of the size of Zaravina lake in Delvinaki area of the prefecture of Ioannina
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/806/1/documents/2004ZaravinaGnomodotisi.pdf (2113 KB)
A. Andreadakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, and M. Aftias, Technical report , Expertise for the quality control of engineering studies for the project "Water supply of Patra from Peiros and Parapeiros rivers", Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: A. Andreadakis, D. Koutsoyiannis, M. Aftias, 20 pages, Athens, 2004.
Related project: Expertise for the quality control of engineering studies for the project "Water supply of Patra from Peiros and Parapeiros rivers"
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/803/1/documents/2004PatraEmpeirogn.pdf (390 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological investigation, Diversion of the Soulou Stream for the Development of Lignite Exploitations of the Public Power Corporation in the Mine of Southern Field of Region Kozani-Ptolemais, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractors: D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, 18 pages, Public Power Corporation, Athens, 2004.
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/639/1/documents/2004PPCSoulou.pdf (694 KB)
C. Maksimovic, H. S. Wheater, D. Koutsoyiannis, S. Prohaska, D. Peach, S. Djordevic, D. Prodanovic, C. Makropoulos, P. Docx, T. Dasic, M. Stanic, D. Spasova, and D. Brnjos, Final Report, Analysis of the effects of the water transfer through the tunnel Fatnicko Polje - Bileca reservoir on the hydrologic regime of Bregava River in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Commissioner: Energy Financing Team, Switzerland, Contractors: CUW-UK, ICCI Limited, London, 2004.
The possible effects of water transfer through the tunnel Fatnicko Polje - Bileca Reservoir on the hydrologic regime of the Bregava River located in Eastern Herzegovina, in an area characterised by a predominantly karstic terrain, are studied. Three different simulation models of the area were developed and their predictions compared under a range of current and future hydrological and operational management conditions. These are based on a range of modelling approaches from a simplified conceptual approach to a quasi-physically based one. Despite the large complexity of the natural system, the models gave good fits to existing flow data with the most simplified model providing the closest agreement to historical flows. Calibrated models were used to study the possible effects of the intervention under a range of operational scenarios and identify the sources of the associated uncertainties. The results of the work suggest that the system of tunnels in question has a favourable effect in reducing flood hazard in the area, thus liberating scarce land resources for agriculture, and in reduction of flows in the Bregava River, especially the high flows. It is also suggested that a significant reduction in the uncertainty of modelling the karstic environment can be achieved by an appropriate, complementary combination of modelling approaches viewed as a multi-model ensemble.
Related works:
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Drainage study of the football courts of Rouf and Kypsele in the Municipality of Athens, Construction of artificial lawn in the football courts of Rouf and Kypsele, Contractors: , 11 pages, Athens, 2003.
Related project: Construction of artificial lawn in the football courts of Rouf and Kypsele
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/815/1/documents/2003GipedoRouf.pdf (282 KB)
N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, M. Lasithiotakis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, First monitoring programme for the estimation of water resources in the Pylos-Romanos area for the water supply of the ITDA , Water resource management of the Integrated Tourist Development Area in Messenia, Commissioner: TEMES - Tourist Enterprises of Messinia, Contractor: D. Argyropoulos, 17 pages, Athens, 2003.
Related project: Water resource management of the Integrated Tourist Development Area in Messenia
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/812/1/documents/2003pylos_measur.pdf (515 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and A. Efstratiadis, Hydrological study of the Sperheios basin, Hydrological and hydraulic study for the flood protection of the new railway in the region of Sperhios river, Commissioner: ERGA OSE, Contractor: D. Soteropoulos, Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis, 197 pages, Athens, January 2003.
Related project: Hydrological and hydraulic study for the flood protection of the new railway in the region of Sperhios river
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/729/1/documents/2003sperxeios_flood_final.pdf (1820 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Tsakiris, G., and V. Bellos, A numerical model for two-dimensional flood routing in complex terrains, Water Resources Management, 28, 1277-1291, 10.1007/s11269-014-0540-3, 2014. |
| 2. | Spyrou, C., M. Loupis, N. Charizopoulos, I. Apostolidou, A. Mentzafou, G. Varlas, A. Papadopoulos, E. Dimitriou, D. Panga, L. Gkeka, P. Bowyer, S. Pfeifer, S. E. Debele, and P. Kumar, Evaluating nature-based solution for flood reduction in Spercheios river basin under current and future climate conditions, Sustainability, 13(7), 3885, doi:10.3390/su13073885, 2021. |
P. Marinos, M. Kavvadas, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Experts reports, Flood Protection Works of Diakoniaris Stream, Preliminary Study, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: Ydroexigiantiki, Grafeio Mahera, Ydroereyna, Collaborators: P. Marinos, M. Kavvadas, D. Koutsoyiannis, 44 pages, Athens, July 2002.
Related project: Flood Protection Works of Diakoniaris Stream, Preliminary Study
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/602/1/documents/2002DiakonEktheseisSymboulwn.pdf (1451 KB)
A. Efstratiadis, G. M. T. Tentes, D. Koutsoyiannis, and D. Argyropoulos, Technical report, Preliminary Water Supply Study of the Thermoelectric Livadia Power Plant, Contractor: Ypologistiki Michaniki, 63 pages, Athens, 2001.
Related project: Preliminary Water Supply Study of the Thermoelectric Livadia Power Plant
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/809/1/documents/2001LivadiaReport.pdf (1636 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study, Engineering study for the licence of positioning of the Valorema Small Hydroelectric Project, Commissioner: YDROSAR, Contractor: D. Argyropoulos, 9 pages, Athens, 2001.
Related project: Engineering study for the licence of positioning of the Valorema Small Hydroelectric Project
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/805/1/documents/2001ValoremaHydrol1.pdf (179 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Flood study, Study of the Potamos River, Corfu, Commissioner: Anaptyxiaki Demou Kerkyreon, Contractor: M. Papakosta, 46 pages, Athens, 2001.
Related project: Study of the Potamos River, Corfu
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/804/1/documents/2001ReportKerk.pdf (923 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study of the Western Road Axis, segment Antirrio-Kefalovriso, Study of the Segment Antirrio-Kefalovriso of the Western Road Axis, Commissioner: General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: NAMA, Kastor, 38 pages, Athens, 2001.
Related project: Study of the Segment Antirrio-Kefalovriso of the Western Road Axis
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/802/1/documents/2001IoniaOdos.pdf (895 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, L. Lazaridis, and A. Daniil, Flood study, Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam", Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractor: Aposelemis Joint Venture, Athens, October 2001.
The objective of the study is the estimation of the design floods of the spillway and the diversion tunnel of the Aposelemis dam. The study is based mainly on regional rainfall and meteorological data. Initially, the data is analysed applying probabilistic techniques as well as the probable maximum precipitation concept, in order to estimate the characteristics of design storms. Next, a unit hydrograph of the catchment is synthesised and using this unit hydrograph and the design storms, the design floods at the dam site are estimated for various return periods. Finally, these floods are routed through the spillway in order to estimate the characteristics of the outflow hydrograph.
Related project: Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam"
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, I. Nalbantis, and L. Lazaridis, Hydrological study of reservoir operation, Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam", Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractor: Aposelemis Joint Venture, Athens, October 2001.
The scope of the study is the analytic and systematic approach of the Aposelemis reservoir operation, based on probabilistic/stochastic analysis, which aims at complementing the previous studies and giving reliable estimations of the reservoir's safe release. The study gives emphasis to the estimation of the contribution of the surface water resources of Lasithi Plateau basin to the reservoir's water potential, which is affected by the hydraulic communication between the basins of Lasithi Plateau and Aposelemis due to their karstic geologic background. For this purpose, extensive collection and processing of historical hydrological records were required, in addition to the development and calibration of a conceptual hydrological model for both watersheds. The estimation of the safe reservoir release is based on a stochastic model for the generation of synthetic inflow series and a simplified simulation-optimisation model of the hydrosystem composed of Lasithi plateau - Aposelemis reservoir - boreholes - urban and rural consumption. By applying the above models, several safe yield scenarios are examined, referring to alternative values of the physical hydraulic communication between the two basins and different system reliability levels.
Related project: Engineering consultant for the project "Water supply of Heracleio and Agios Nicolaos from the Aposelemis dam"
Full text:
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | #Vogiatzi, C., and C. Loupasakis, Environmental impact from the construction and operation of Aposelemis dam and tunnel, in Northern‐Eastern Crete, 1st International Conference on Environmental Design (ICED2020), 423-430, 2020. |
D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, Appraisal of the surface water potential and its exploitation in the Acheloos river basin and in Thessaly, Ch. 5 of Study of Hydrosystems, Complementary study of environmental impacts from the diversion of Acheloos to Thessaly, Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki, Collaborators: D. Koutsoyiannis, 2001.
Related project: Complementary study of environmental impacts from the diversion of Acheloos to Thessaly
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/208/1/documents/2001AcheloosThessaliaReport.pdf (2472 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, D. Zarris, J. Gavriilidis, T. Papathanasiadis, and I. Nalbantis, Flow measurements and estimation of losses from DXX irrigation canal of Lower Acheloos, Estimation of losses from DXX canal in the irrigation network of Lower Acheloos, Commissioner: Division of Land Reclamation Works – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractor: NAMA, 20 pages, Division of Land Reclamation Works – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, 1999.
Related project: Estimation of losses from DXX canal in the irrigation network of Lower Acheloos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/138/1/documents/1999KatoAxeloosDXX.pdf (503 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Flood studies (Ch. 1-4 and App. 1), Study of the water supply of the wider Rhodes from Gadouras dam: Aqueduct and water treatment plant, Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: Grafeio Mahera, G. Kafetzopoulos - D. Benakis - I. Printatko, Ydroexigiantiki, P. Kerhoulas, 62 pages, 1998.
Related project: Study of the water supply of the wider Rhodes from Gadouras dam: Aqueduct and water treatment plant
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/212/1/documents/1998GadourasFloodReport.pdf (596 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Simulation of the operation of Gadouras reservoir, Ch. 4 of the Hydrological Study of Water Balance, Study of the water supply of the wider Rhodes from Gadouras dam: Aqueduct and water treatment plant, Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: Grafeio Mahera, G. Kafetzopoulos - D. Benakis - I. Printatko, Ydroexigiantiki, P. Kerhoulas, 18 pages, 1998.
Related project: Study of the water supply of the wider Rhodes from Gadouras dam: Aqueduct and water treatment plant
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/211/1/documents/1998GadourasReservoirReport.pdf (340 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, and L. Lazaridis, Flood study, Engineering report of the Korinthos sewer system, Study of the Xerias creek, Introductory part, Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractor: Ydroexigiantiki, 122 pages, 1998.
Related project: Engineering report of the Korinthos sewer system, Study of the Xerias creek, Introductory part
Full text:
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological investigations of the Santorine watersheds, Concerted actions for the sector of environment in Santorine and Therasia islands, Commissioner: Cohesion Fund EU, Contractors: NAMA, SPEED, VLAR, 1998.
Related project: Concerted actions for the sector of environment in Santorine and Therasia islands
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological investigation - Part B: Investigation of flow duration characteristics, Engineering study of the hydraulic project of old and new river bed of Peneios in Larisa, Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: Th. Gofas and Partners, Petra Synergatiki, D. Koutsoudakis, Helliniki Meletitiki, G. Kafetzopoulos - D. Benakis - I. Printatko, 100 pages, 1997.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study of the hydraulic project of old and new river bed of Peneios in Larisa
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/239/1/documents/1997LarisaB.pdf (688 KB)
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological investigation - Part A, Engineering study of the hydraulic project of old and new river bed of Peneios in Larisa, Commissioner: Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: Th. Gofas and Partners, Petra Synergatiki, D. Koutsoudakis, Helliniki Meletitiki, G. Kafetzopoulos - D. Benakis - I. Printatko, 148 pages, 1997.
Related project: Engineering study of the hydraulic project of old and new river bed of Peneios in Larisa
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/157/1/documents/1997LarisaA.pdf (983 KB)
P. Panagopoulos, A. Dakanalis, K. Triantafillou, D. Mertziotis, I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, G. Tsakalias, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Final Report, Water resources management of the Evinos river basin and hydrogeological study of the Evinos karstic system, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: P. Panagopoulos, General Studies, Istria, Ecosystems Analysis, 1996.
Related project: Water resources management of the Evinos river basin and hydrogeological study of the Evinos karstic system
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/1474/1/documents/1996Meleti_diaxirisis_Evinou.pdf (39435 KB)
A. Kotronarou, S. Kaimaki, G. Baloutsos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Assessment of the influence of forest fire of 1995 in the increase of sediment yield of the Megalo Rema in Raphena, Commissioner: Prefectural Government of Eastern Attica, Contractors: , November 1996.
Related project: Assessment of the influence of forest fire of 1995 in the increase of sediment yield of the Megalo Rema in Raphena
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/380/1/documents/1996RemaRafinas.pdf (3257 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Study of the operation of reservoirs , General outline of the Acheloos River diversion project, Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Collaborators: G. Kalaouzis, ELECTROWATT, P. Marinos, D. Koutsoyiannis, 420 pages, 1996.
Related project: General outline of the Acheloos River diversion project
Full text:
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological investigation, General outline of the Acheloos River diversion project, Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Collaborators: G. Kalaouzis, ELECTROWATT, P. Marinos, D. Koutsoyiannis, 44 pages, 1996.
Related project: General outline of the Acheloos River diversion project
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/213/1/documents/1996_GenikhDiata3hErgwn_EktrophsAchelwou_YdrologikhDievrinsh_1.pdf (2567 KB)
Other works that reference this work (this list might be obsolete):
| 1. | Niadas, I.A., and P.G. Mentzelopoulos, Probabilistic flow duration curves for small hydro plant design and performance evaluation, Water Resources Management, 22(4), 509-523, 2008. |
I. Nalbantis, N. Mamassis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study, Water resources management of the Evinos river basin and hydrogeological study of the Evinos karstic system, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: P. Panagopoulos, General Studies, Istria, Ecosystems Analysis, Report number II, Athens, 1996.
Related project: Water resources management of the Evinos river basin and hydrogeological study of the Evinos karstic system
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/209/1/documents/1996ydrolohiki_meleti_Evinou.pdf (18161 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, and I. Nalbantis, Appraisal of the surface water potential and its exploitation in the Acheloos river basin and in Thessaly, Ch. 5 of Study of Hydrosystems, Integrated study of the environmental impacts from Acheloos diversion, Contractor: Directorate for Acheloos Diversion Works – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Collaborators: Ydroexigiantiki, 150 pages, 1995.
Related works:
Related project: Integrated study of the environmental impacts from Acheloos diversion
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/215/1/documents/KEF5A.pdf (586 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological investigation - Annex, Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: OTME, Ydroilektriki, YDROTEK, D. Constantinidis, G. Karavokiris, Th. Gofas and Partners, 82 pages, 1991.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/219/1/documents/1991EvinosProsartima.pdf (3463 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological investigation - Appendices E-F, Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: OTME, Ydroilektriki, YDROTEK, D. Constantinidis, G. Karavokiris, Th. Gofas and Partners, 204 pages, 1991.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/218/1/documents/1991EvinosParartEST.pdf (5526 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological investigation - Appendices A-D, Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: OTME, Ydroilektriki, YDROTEK, D. Constantinidis, G. Karavokiris, Th. Gofas and Partners, 233 pages, 1991.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/217/1/documents/1991EvinosParartAD.pdf (9250 KB)
Additional material:
D. Koutsoyiannis, I. Nalbantis, and N. Mamassis, Hydrological investigation - Report, Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River, Commissioner: Directorate of Water Supply and Sewage – General Secretariat of Public Works – Ministry of Environment, Planning and Public Works, Contractors: OTME, Ydroilektriki, YDROTEK, D. Constantinidis, G. Karavokiris, Th. Gofas and Partners, 192 pages, 1991.
Related project: Engineering study for improving the water supply of Athens with the construction of a dam at the Evinos River
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/216/1/documents/1991EvinosReport.pdf (21561 KB)
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study, Master plan of the land reclamation works of the Arta plain, Commissioner: Ministry of Agriculture, Contractors: Ydrodomiki, D. Constantinidis, Ydroexigiantiki, Abramopoulos, Report number II, 86 pages, 1990.
Related project: Master plan of the land reclamation works of the Arta plain
D. Koutsoyiannis, and R. Matisen, Hydrological study, Ch. 9 of the Engineering Report, Engineering study of the regulation of the Kallithea Stream in Mytilene, Commissioner: Ministry of National Education, Contractor: TENET, 19 pages, November 1988.
Related project: Engineering study of the regulation of the Kallithea Stream in Mytilene
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/226/1/documents/1988Mitilini.pdf (1501 KB)
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study, Study of the Faneromeni dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report, Commissioner: Ministry of Agriculture, Contractors: D. Constantinidis, Grafeio Doxiadi, Report number 3, 100 pages, November 1988.
Related project: Study of the Faneromeni dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/221/1/documents/1998Faneromeni.pdf (1718 KB)
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study - Tables, Study of the Plakiotissa dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report, Commissioner: Ministry of Agriculture, Contractors: D. Constantinidis, Grafeio Doxiadi, Report number 4, 200 pages, May 1986.
Related works:
Related project: Study of the Plakiotissa dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study, Study of the Plakiotissa dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report, Commissioner: Ministry of Agriculture, Contractors: D. Constantinidis, Grafeio Doxiadi, Report number 3, 119 pages, May 1986.
Related project: Study of the Plakiotissa dam in Mesara, Crete - Engineering report
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study - Tables, Engineering study of the flood protection works in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractor: D. Constantinidis, 216 pages, November 1985.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study of the flood protection works in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/225/1/documents/1985BoeotikosKephisosPin.pdf (10446 KB)
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study - Report, Engineering study of the flood protection works in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractor: D. Constantinidis, Report number 12, 81 pages, November 1985.
Related project: Engineering study of the flood protection works in the Boeoticos Kephisos river basin
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/224/1/documents/1985BoeotikosKephisos.pdf (3722 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Heliolousto Dam, Updated hydrological study III, Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractors: OTME, D. Constantinidis, METER, Report number 11, 180 pages, April 1985.
Related project: Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region
R. Ruoss, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydraulic analyses, Appendix C in Appendices to Engineering Studies I, Arachthos River, Steno - Kalaritikos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG), Report number 4, 140 pages, Athens, August 1984.
Optimisation of tunnel dimameters. Head losses in the water conduits from Kalaritikos reservoir to tailrace output. Surge tank system. River diversion. Spillways. Bottom outlet.
Related works:
Related project: Arachthos River, Steno - Kalaritikos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
R. Ruoss, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology, Ch. 4 in Engineering Studies I, Arachthos River, Steno - Kalaritikos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG), Report number 2, 17 pages, Athens, August 1984.
Introduction. Reservoir inflows. Synthetic runoff data. Flood studies (design storms, inflow hydrographs, flood routing, ouflow hydrographs). Reservoir sedimentation.
Related project: Arachthos River, Steno - Kalaritikos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/229/1/documents/1984ASAG_Chapter4_2.pdf (8335 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. van der Riet, Hydrology, Ch. 5, Arachthos River, Aghios Nicolaos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG), Report number 2, 38 pages, Athens, August 1984.
Introduction. Description of catchment. Hydrometeorology. Streamflows. Flood studies (data, unit hydrographs, design inflow hydrographs, spillway and diversion tunnel flood calculations, outlow flood hydrographs, review of report on Pournari design flood). Reservoir sedimentation.
Related project: Arachthos River, Aghios Nicolaos hydroelectric project, Engineering Report
E. Vassilopoulos, E. Karalis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Preliminary study of the water supply of Karystos and Kallianos municipalities from the Demosari springs, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Euboea, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 1, 82 pages, April 1983.
Related project: Preliminary study of the water supply of Karystos and Kallianos municipalities from the Demosari springs
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydraulic analyses, Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 7, 24 pages, May 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report
E. Vassilopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Liosis, Economical analyses, Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 5-6, 74 pages, May 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical specifications, Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 4, 66 pages, May 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 2, 30 pages, May 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Engineering report
D. Koutsoyiannis, Summary report, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 12, 7 pages, January 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Karakosti, General and special indenture, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 10, 24 pages, January 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/377/1/documents/1983NeapoliOristikiSiggrafiYpoxreoseon.pdf (1402 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and M. Goudelis, Cost analyses, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 6, 59 pages, January 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/376/1/documents/1983NeapoliOristikiAnalyseisTimon.pdf (2988 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Estimation of quantities , Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 5, 148 pages, January 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/375/1/documents/1983NeapoliOristikiPrometriseis.pdf (22853 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Karakosti, Structural analyses of sewer works, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 3, 62 pages, January 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/374/1/documents/1983NeapoliOristikiStatikoiYpologismoi.pdf (15377 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, January 1983.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Engineering report
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrology report and study of erosion and flood protection, Study for the restoration, fixing, protection and prominence of the archaeological monument of Knossos , Commissioner: Ministry of Culture and Sciences, Contractor: I. Skandalis, Collaborators: P. Melissaris, D. Koutsoyiannis, Report number 5, 53 pages, November 1983.
Related project: Study for the restoration, fixing, protection and prominence of the archaeological monument of Knossos
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/234/1/documents/1983_Ek8eshYdrologiaskaiMeleths_AntidiavrwtikhsAntiplymmhrikhsProstasias_1.pdf (5025 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Study of hydrology, Engineering study of sewer system and the wastewater treatment plant of Farsala, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractor: METER, 24 pages, June 1983.
Related project: Engineering study of sewer system and the wastewater treatment plant of Farsala
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/233/1/documents/1983HydrolFarsalon_1.pdf (479 KB)
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study - Tables, Master plan of Dereio dam, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractors: Grafeio Doxiadi, D. Constantinidis, Report number 3, 218 pages, August 1983.
Related works:
Related project: Master plan of Dereio dam
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/232/1/documents/1983FragmaDereiou.pdf (4155 KB)
D. Constantinidis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study - Report and diagrams, Master plan of Dereio dam, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractors: Grafeio Doxiadi, D. Constantinidis, Report number 2, 129 pages, August 1983.
Related project: Master plan of Dereio dam
D. Koutsoyiannis, and P. van der Riet, Hydrology, Ch. 5 in Engineering Studies, Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Master Plan, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG), Report number 2, 38 pages, Athens, October 1983.
Introduction. Description of the catchment. Hydrometeorology. Streamflows. Flood studies (data, unit hydrographs, inflow flood hydrographs, spillway and diversion tunnel flood calculations, outlow flood hydrographs). Reservoir sedimentation.
Related project: Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Master Plan
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/227/1/documents/1983ASAG_Chapter5_2.pdf (13786 KB)
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Economical data, Master plan of the foul sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Preveza, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 3, 5 pages, December 1982.
Related project: Master plan of the foul sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydraulic analyses, Master plan of the foul sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Preveza, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 2, 13 pages, December 1982.
Related project: Master plan of the foul sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractors: METER, Exarxou and Nikolopoulos, Kalatzopoulos, 90 pages, Athens, October 1982.
Related project: Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/367/1/documents/1982OropedFinRep.pdf (147154 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Summary report, Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractors: METER, Exarxou and Nikolopoulos, Kalatzopoulos, 27 pages, October 1982.
Related project: Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/366/1/documents/1982OropedSynopt.pdf (47096 KB)
P. van der Riet, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Chapter 6: Hydrology, in Report of alternative studies, Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Alternative studies, Commissioner: Public Power Corporation, Contractor: Arachthos Swiss-Anglo-German Consulting Group (ASAG), 11 pages, Athens, March 1982.
Related project: Arachthos River, Middle Course hydroelectric projects, Alternative studies
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/365/1/documents/1982ASAG_Chapter6_1.pdf (6570 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Study of surface hydrology, Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractors: METER, Exarxou and Nikolopoulos, Kalatzopoulos, Report number 1, 59 pages, October 1982.
Related project: Alternative studies for the irrigation of the Lasithi plateau
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/237/1/documents/1982OropedYdrol.pdf (14766 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, E. Vassilopoulos, and E. Karalis, Hydrological study - Tables and diagrams, Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractors: OTME, D. Constantinidis, METER, Report number 2, 154 pages, March 1982.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/236/1/documents/1982FragmaiIioloustou.pdf (3339 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, E. Vassilopoulos, and E. Karalis, Hydrological study - Report , Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region, Commissioner: Ministry of Public Works, Contractors: OTME, D. Constantinidis, METER, Report number 1, 70 pages, March 1982.
Related works:
Related project: Engineering study of the flood protection and drainage works and the dam in the Artzan-Amatovo region
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/235/1/documents/1982FragmaiIioloustou_1.pdf (3974 KB)
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Preliminary study of the sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Preveza, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, 55 pages, October 1981.
Related project: Preliminary study of the sewer system of Kanallaki, Preveza
E. Vassilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Report on foul sewer system, Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Preliminary study, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Peiraias, Contractor: E. Vassilopoulos, Report number 1, 43 pages, December 1981.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Aghia Marina in Mesagros municipality, Aegina, Preliminary study
D. Koutsoyiannis, and E. Karakosti, Wastewater treatment plant - Contract data, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 7, 54 pages, July 1981.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/371/1/documents/1981NeapoliPromeletiEgkatastasiEL_teyxi.pdf (2216 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Foul and storm sewer networks - Technical report, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 1, 49 pages, July 1981.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/370/1/documents/1981NeapoliPromeletiEkthesi.pdf (2846 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Foul and storm sewer networks - Economical data, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 2, 13 pages, July 1981.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan
D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydrological study, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, Report number 4, 20 pages, July 1981.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Master plan
Full text: http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/getfile/238/1/documents/1981NeapoliPromeletiYdrologikiMeleti.pdf (1663 KB)
D. Koutsoyiannis, Technical report, Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Alternative studies, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Lasithi, Contractor: G. Koukourakis and Colleagues, April 1980.
Related project: Study of the sewer system of Neapolis, Lasithi, Alternative studies
D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Psilopoulos, Hydraulic analyses, Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Evritania, Contractor: A. Psilopoulos, 1979.
Related project: Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality
A. Psilopoulos, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Hydraulic analyses, Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality, Commissioner: Prefectural Fund of Eleia, Contractor: A. Psilopoulos, 1978.
Related project: Engineering study of the sewer system of the Karpenesi municipality
