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Orbital climate theory and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics
Markonis, Y., D. Koutsoyiannis, and N. Mamassis, Orbital climate theory and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Edinburgh, International Meetings on Statistical Climatology, University of Edinburgh, 2010.
Orbital climate theory, based mainly on the work of Milankovitch, is used to explain some features of long-term climate variability, especially those concerning the ice-sheet extent. The paleoclimatic time series, which describe the climate-orbital variability relationship, exhibit Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, also known as long-term persistence. This stochastic dynamics provides an appropriate framework to explore the reliability of statistical inferences, based on such time series, about the consistency of suggestions of the modern orbital theory. Our analysis tries to shed light on some doubts raised from the contradictions between the orbital climate theory and paleoclimatic data.