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A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data

Anagnostopoulos, G. G., D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, 2010.

[doc_id=978]

[English]

We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections do not correspond to reality any better.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513518

Related works:

  • [doc_id=900] Credibility of climate predictions revisited (predecessor presentation)
  • [doc_id=864] On the credibility of climate predictions (previous related publication)

Remarks:

The paper has been discussed in weblogs and forums.

Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2010:

  1. Very Important New Paper “A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data” By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.)
  2. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (Watts Up With That?)
  3. Missing News: No skill in climate modelling (ABC News Watch)
  4. Missing News: Climate models disputed (ABC News Watch)
  5. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost 1) (Countdown to critical mass)
  6. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost2 ) (Climate Observer)
  7. New Major Peer-Reviewed Study: Climate Models' Predictions Found To Be Shitty (C3)
  8. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are - A response to the Climate Change Misinformation at wattsupwiththat.com (Wott's Up With That?)
  9. Climate model abuse (Niche Modeling)
  10. Very Important New Paper on models versus reality (Greenie Watch)
  11. New paper shows that there is no means of reliably predicting climate variables (Greenie Watch 2)
  12. A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data (Fire And Ice)
  13. Peer Reviewed Study States The Obvious (US Message Board)
  14. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog)
  15. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (repost) (The Daily Telegraph)
  16. No abuse hides the fact:  warmist models cannot even predict our past (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
  17. No abuse hides the fact: the warmist models cannot even predict our past (PA Pundits – International)
  18. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (clothcap)
  19. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (repost) (My Telegraph)
  20. Science not politics (ecomyths)
  21. More evidence that Global Climate computer models are worthless (Tucano's Perch)
  22. Model skill? (Retread Resources Blog)
  23. Estudo sobre modelos climáticos (MeteoPT.com - Fórum de Meteorologia)
  24. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (Climate Monitor)
  25. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (repost) (Blog All Over The World)
  26. Klima - spådommer og målinger (ABC News)
  27. "Scam for the Ages" Makes Madoff Look Like Small Change (Al Fin)
  28. Teoria do AGA: um passado duvidoso, um presente mal contado e um futuro pior ainda. (Sou Engenheiro)

Our works referenced by this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, 2003.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, 2006.
3. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, 2007.
4. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
5. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.
6. Koutsoyiannis, D., C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, 2009.
7. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, 2009.
8. Koutsoyiannis, D., A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, 2010.

Our works that reference this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, 2011.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, and N. Mamassis, Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (7), 1334–1339, 2011.
3. Koutsoyiannis, D., Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), 2–22, 2014.

Other works that reference this work:

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34. Ruffault, J., N. K .Martin-StPaul,C. Duffet, F. Goge and F. Mouillot, Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-013-0992-z, 2013.
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Tagged under: Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology, Climate stochastics, Works discussed in weblogs