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A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data

Anagnostopoulos, G. G., D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, 2010.

[doc_id=978]

[English]

We compare the output of various climate models to temperature and precipitation observations at 55 points around the globe. We spatially aggregate model output and observations over the contiguous USA using data from 70 stations, and we perform comparison at several temporal scales, including a climatic (30-year) scale. Besides confirming the findings of a previous assessment study that model projections at point scale are poor, results show that the spatially integrated projections do not correspond to reality any better.

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See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513518

Related works:

  • [doc_id=900] Credibility of climate predictions revisited (predecessor presentation)
  • [doc_id=864] On the credibility of climate predictions (previous related publication)

Remarks:

The paper has been discussed in weblogs and forums.

Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2010:

  1. Very Important New Paper “A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data” By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.)
  2. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (Watts Up With That?)
  3. Missing News: No skill in climate modelling (ABC News Watch)
  4. Missing News: Climate models disputed (ABC News Watch)
  5. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost 1) (Countdown to critical mass)
  6. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost2 ) (Climate Observer)
  7. New Major Peer-Reviewed Study: Climate Models' Predictions Found To Be Shitty (C3)
  8. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are - A response to the Climate Change Misinformation at wattsupwiththat.com (Wott's Up With That?)
  9. Climate model abuse (Niche Modeling)
  10. Very Important New Paper on models versus reality (Greenie Watch)
  11. New paper shows that there is no means of reliably predicting climate variables (Greenie Watch 2)
  12. A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data (Fire And Ice)
  13. Peer Reviewed Study States The Obvious (US Message Board)
  14. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog)
  15. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (repost) (The Daily Telegraph)
  16. No abuse hides the fact:  warmist models cannot even predict our past (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
  17. No abuse hides the fact: the warmist models cannot even predict our past (PA Pundits – International)
  18. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (clothcap)
  19. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (repost) (My Telegraph)
  20. Science not politics (ecomyths)
  21. More evidence that Global Climate computer models are worthless (Tucano's Perch)
  22. Model skill? (Retread Resources Blog)
  23. Estudo sobre modelos climáticos (MeteoPT.com - Fórum de Meteorologia)
  24. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (Climate Monitor)
  25. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (repost) (Blog All Over The World)
  26. Klima - spådommer og målinger (ABC News)
  27. "Scam for the Ages" Makes Madoff Look Like Small Change (Al Fin)
  28. Teoria do AGA: um passado duvidoso, um presente mal contado e um futuro pior ainda. (Sou Engenheiro)

Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2010:

Climate Etc. * Climate Etc. (2) * Climate Etc. (3) * YouTube * Science Forum * Google Groups * Google Groups 2 * Errors in IPCC climate science * Errors in IPCC climate science (2) * Just Grounds Community * A Few Things Ill Considered * Popular Technology.net * The Climate Scam * JunkScience * The Chronicle of Higher Education * The Little Skeptic * Jennifer Marohasy * Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com * ICECAP * Watching the Deniers * DVD Talk * Pure Poison * Peak Oil News and Message Boards * Bishop Hill * San Diego News * Sheffield Forum * Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 3 * BBC - Richard Black's Earth Watch * Liberation * Pistonheads * ABC.net.au * Climate Conversation Group * Sydsvenskan - Nyheter dygnet runt * Telepolis * Keskisuomalainen * Keskisuomalainen 2

Our works referenced by this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, 2003.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, 2006.
3. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, 2007.
4. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
5. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.
6. Koutsoyiannis, D., C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, 2009.
7. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, 2009.
8. Koutsoyiannis, D., A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, 2010.

Our works that reference this work:

1. Koutsoyiannis, D., Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, 2011.
2. Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, and N. Mamassis, Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (7), 1334–1339, 2011.

Other works that reference this work:

1. Kundzewicz, Z. W., and E. Z. Stakhiv, Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55(7), 1085–1089, 2010.
2. #Liebscher, H.-J., and H. G. Mendel, Vom empirischen Modellansatz zum komplexen hydrologischen Flussgebietsmodell – Rückblick und Perspektiven, 132 p., Koblenz, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 2010.
3. Stockwell, D. R. B., Critique of drought models in the Australian Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR), Energy and Environment, 21(5), 425-436, 2010.
4. Di Baldassarre, G., M. Elshamy, A. van Griensven, E. Soliman, M. Kigobe, P. Ndomba, J. Mutemi, F. Mutua, S. Moges, J.-Q. Xuan, D. Solomatine, and S. Uhlenbrook, Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(2), 199-211, 2011.
5. Carlin, A., A multidisciplinary, science-based approach to the economics of climate change, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 8(4), 985-1031, 2011.
6. Fildes, R., and N. Kourentzes, Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change, International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), 968-995, 2011.
7. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Nonstationarity in water resources – Central European perspective, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(3), 550-562, 2011.
8. Sivakumar, B., Water crisis: From conflict to cooperation – an overview, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 531-552, 2011.
9. Loehle, C., Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems, Ecology and Evolution, 1 (1), 63–72, 2011.
10. Ward, J. D., A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham, The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1879-1893, 2011.
11. #Idso, C., R. M. Carter, and S. F. Singer, Climate models and their limitations, Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Chapter 1, 32 pp., 2011.
12. #Huard, D., The challenges of climate change interpretation, Ouranos Newsletter, Montreal, Quebec, 3 pp., 21 September 2011.
13. Stakhiv, E. Z., Pragmatic approaches for water management under climate change uncertainty, JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(6), 1183-1196, 2011.
14. Huard, D., A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal, Discussion of “A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data”, by G. G. Anagnostopoulos et al. (2010, Hydrol. Sci. J. 55 (7), 1094–1110), Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(7), 1330–1333, 2011.
15. #Martin, T. E., Mine waste management in wet, mountainous terrain: Some British Columbia perspectives, Part II – Creating, managing and judging our legacy, Proceedings Tailings and Mine Waste 2011, Vancouver, BC, Canada, 2011.
16. #Kundzewicz, Z. W., Comparative assessment: fact or fiction? Paper presented at the Workshop Including long-term climate change in hydrologic design, World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA, November 21, 2011.
17. Okruszko, T., H. Duel, M. Acreman, M. Grygoruk, M. Flörke, and C. Schneider, Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands — overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(8), 1501–1517, 2011.
18. Stanislawska, K., K Krawiec, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Modeling global temperature changes with genetic programming, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 64(12), 3717-3728, 2012.
19. Petheram, C., P. Rustomji, T. R. McVicar, W. Cai, F. H. S. Chiew, J. Vleeshouwer, T. G. Van Niel, L.-T. Li, R. G. Cresswell, R. J. Donohue, J. Teng, and J.-M. Perraud, Estimating the impact of projected climate change on runoff across the tropical savannas and semi-arid rangelands of northern Australia, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13 (2), 483-503, 2012.
20. #Fekete, B. M., and E. Stakhiv, Water management preparation strategies for adaptation to changing climate, Climatic Change and Global Warming of Inland Waters: Impacts and Mitigation for Ecosystems and Societies, C. R. Goldman, M. Kumagai, and R. D. Robarts (eds.), 413-427, 2012.
21. Serrat-Capdevila, A., J. B. Valdes, F. Dominguez, and S. Rajagopal, Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-west: a comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2012.
22. Hromadka, T. V., M. Jaye, M. Phillips, T. Hromadka, and D. Phillips, A mathematical model of cryospheric response to climate changes, Journal of Cold Regions Engineering, 2012.
23. #Asian Development Bank, Guidelines for climate proofing investment in agriculture, rural development and food security, 101 pp., Mandaluyong City, Philippines, ISBN 978-92-9092-900-0, 2012.
24. Nastos, P. T., N. Politi, and J. Kapsomenakis, Spatial and temporal variability of the aridity index in Greece, Atmospheric Research, 19, 140-152, 2013.
25. Jiang, P., M. R. Gautam, J. Zhu, and Z. Yu, How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?, Journal of Hydrology, 479, 13-23, 2013.
26. Nazemi, A., H. S. Wheater, K. P. Chun, and A. Elshorbagy, A stochastic reconstruction framework for analysis of water resource system vulnerability to climate-induced changes in river flow regime, Water Resources Research, 49(1), 291-305, doi:10.1029/2012WR012755, 2013.
27. Chun, K. P., H. S. Wheater, and C. Onof, Comparison of drought projections using two UK weather generators, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(2), 1–15, 2013.
28. Pielke, Sr. R.A., Comment on “The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013.
29. Piniewski, M., F. Voss, I. Bärlund, T. Okruszko and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737-754, 2013.
30. #Pielke R. A. Sr., J. Adegoke, F. Hossain, G. Kallos, D. Niyogi, T. Seastedt, K. Suding, C. Y. Wright, and D. Staley, Preface, Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources, Pielke, R. (editor), xxi-xxix, Elsevier Science, 2013.
31. #Lang, M. A., Renewable energy and water resources, Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources, Pielke, R. (editor), Vol. 3, 149-166, Elsevier Science, 2013.
32. # He, Y., F. Pappenberger, D. Manful, H. Cloke, P. Bates, F. Wetterhall, and B. Parkes, Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change, Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources, Pielke, R. (editor), Vol. 5, 241-255, Elsevier Science, 2013.

Tagged under: Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology, Climate stochastics, Works discussed in weblogs