A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data

G. G. Anagnostopoulos, D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (7), 1094–1110, doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.513518, 2010.

[doc_id=978]

[English]

See also: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513518

Related works:

• [doc_id=900] Credibility of climate predictions revisited (predecessor presentation)
• [doc_id=864] On the credibility of climate predictions (previous related publication)

Remarks:

The paper has been discussed in weblogs and forums.

Weblogs and forums that discussed this article during 2010:

1. Very Important New Paper “A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data” By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 (Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.)
2. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (Watts Up With That?)
3. Missing News: No skill in climate modelling (ABC News Watch)
4. Missing News: Climate models disputed (ABC News Watch)
5. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost 1) (Countdown to critical mass)
6. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are (repost2 ) (Climate Observer)
7. New Major Peer-Reviewed Study: Climate Models' Predictions Found To Be Shitty (C3)
8. New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are - A response to the Climate Change Misinformation at wattsupwiththat.com (Wott's Up With That?)
9. Climate model abuse (Niche Modeling)
10. Very Important New Paper on models versus reality (Greenie Watch)
11. New paper shows that there is no means of reliably predicting climate variables (Greenie Watch 2)
12. A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data (Fire And Ice)
13. Peer Reviewed Study States The Obvious (US Message Board)
14. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog)
15. Climate models don’t work, in hindsight (repost) (The Daily Telegraph)
16. No abuse hides the fact:  warmist models cannot even predict our past (Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 2)
17. No abuse hides the fact: the warmist models cannot even predict our past (PA Pundits – International)
18. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (clothcap)
19. Aussie rains – IPCC models are bunkum, Energy tsunami, CCNet updates, Exit EU petition (repost) (My Telegraph)
20. Science not politics (ecomyths)
21. More evidence that Global Climate computer models are worthless (Tucano's Perch)
22. Model skill? (Retread Resources Blog)
23. Estudo sobre modelos climáticos (MeteoPT.com - Fórum de Meteorologia)
24. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (Climate Monitor)
25. Strategie di verifica delle prestazioni dei GCM, i risultati degli idrologi dell’università di Atene (repost) (Blog All Over The World)
26. Klima - spådommer og målinger (ABC News)
27. "Scam for the Ages" Makes Madoff Look Like Small Change (Al Fin)
28. Teoria do AGA: um passado duvidoso, um presente mal contado e um futuro pior ainda. (Sou Engenheiro)

Other reactions in weblogs, forums and Internet resources during 2010:

Climate Etc. * Climate Etc. (2) * Climate Etc. (3) * YouTube * Science Forum * Google Groups * Google Groups 2 * Errors in IPCC climate science * Errors in IPCC climate science (2) * Just Grounds Community * A Few Things Ill Considered * Popular Technology.net * The Climate Scam * JunkScience * The Chronicle of Higher Education * The Little Skeptic * Jennifer Marohasy * Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com * ICECAP * Watching the Deniers * DVD Talk * Pure Poison * Peak Oil News and Message Boards * Bishop Hill * San Diego News * Sheffield Forum * Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog 3 * BBC - Richard Black's Earth Watch * Liberation * Pistonheads * ABC.net.au * Climate Conversation Group * Sydsvenskan - Nyheter dygnet runt * Telepolis * Keskisuomalainen * Keskisuomalainen 2

Our works referenced by this work:

1.	D. Koutsoyiannis, Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48 (1), 3–24, doi:10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481, 2003.
2.	D. Koutsoyiannis, A toy model of climatic variability with scaling behaviour, Journal of Hydrology, 322, 25–48, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.02.030, 2006.
3.	D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, and K. Georgakakos, Uncertainty assessment of future hydroclimatic predictions: A comparison of probabilistic and scenario-based approaches, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3), 261–281, doi:10.1175/JHM576.1, 2007.
4.	D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resources Research, 43 (5), W05429, doi:10.1029/2006WR005592, 2007.
5.	D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, doi:10.1623/hysj.53.4.671, 2008.
6.	D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Makropoulos, A. Langousis, S. Baki, A. Efstratiadis, A. Christofides, G. Karavokiros, and N. Mamassis, Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 247–257, doi:10.5194/hess-13-247-2009, 2009.
7.	D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Montanari, H. F. Lins, and T.A. Cohn, Climate, hydrology and freshwater: towards an interactive incorporation of hydrological experience into climate research—DISCUSSION of “The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54 (2), 394–405, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.2.394, 2009.
8.	D. Koutsoyiannis, A random walk on water, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 585–601, doi:10.5194/hess-14-585-2010, 2010.

Our works that reference this work:

1.	D. Koutsoyiannis, Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics and uncertainty, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3), 481–495, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00543.x, 2011.
2.	D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, G. G. Anagnostopoulos, and N. Mamassis, Scientific dialogue on climate: is it giving black eyes or opening closed eyes? Reply to “A black eye for the Hydrological Sciences Journal” by D. Huard, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (7), 1334–1339, doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.610759, 2011.
3.	D. Koutsoyiannis, Reconciling hydrology with engineering, Hydrology Research, 45 (1), 2–22, doi:10.2166/nh.2013.092, 2014.
4.	S. Ceola, A. Montanari, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Toward a theoretical framework for integrated modeling of hydrological change, WIREs Water, 1 (5), 427–438, doi:10.1002/wat2.1038, 2014.
5.	Y. Markonis, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, E. C. Moschou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7, 2016.
6.	D. Koutsoyiannis, and S.M. Papalexiou, Extreme rainfall: Global perspective, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, Second Edition, edited by V.P. Singh, 74.1–74.16, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2017.
7.	H. Tyralis, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the prediction of persistent processes using the output of deterministic models, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62 (13), 2083–2102, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1361535, 2017.
8.	D. Koutsoyiannis, Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3899–3932, doi:10.5194/hess-24-3899-2020, 2020.
9.	D. Koutsoyiannis, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Atmospheric temperature and CO₂: Hen-or-egg causality?, Sci, 2 (4), 83, doi:10.3390/sci2040083, 2020.
10.	D. Koutsoyiannis, Rethinking climate, climate change, and their relationship with water, Water, 13 (6), 849, doi:10.3390/w13060849, 2021.
11.	D. Koutsoyiannis, An open letter to the Editor of Frontiers, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.34248.39689/1, December 2021.
12.	D. Koutsoyiannis, and A. Montanari, Climate extrapolations in hydrology: The expanded Bluecat methodology, Hydrology, 9, 86, doi:10.3390/hydrology9050086, 2022.
13.	D. Koutsoyiannis, Stochastics of Hydroclimatic Extremes - A Cool Look at Risk, Edition 3, ISBN: 978-618-85370-0-2, 391 pages, doi:10.57713/kallipos-1, Kallipos Open Academic Editions, Athens, 2023.
14.	P.E. O’Connell, G. O’Donnell, and D. Koutsoyiannis, On the spatial scale dependence of long-term persistence in global annual precipitation data and the Hurst Phenomenon, Water Resources Research, 59 (4), e2022WR033133, doi:10.1029/2022WR033133, 2023.
15.	D. Koutsoyiannis, C. Onof, Z. W. Kundzewicz, and A. Christofides, On hens, eggs, temperatures and CO₂: Causal links in Earth’s atmosphere, Sci, 5 (3), 35, doi:10.3390/sci5030035, 2023.

Works that cite this document: View on Google Scholar or ResearchGate

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72.	Gupta, H. V., G. Sapriza-Azuri, J. Jódar, and J. Carrera, Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 556, 944-960, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.032, 2018.
73.	#Maraun, D., and M. Widmann, Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, 2018.
74.	Stefanidis, S., and D. Stathis, Effect of climate change on soil erosion in a mountainous Mediterranean catchment (Central Pindus, Greece), Water, 10(10), 1469, doi:10.3390/w10101469, 2018.
75.	Connolly, R., M. Connolly, W. Soon, D. R. Legates, R. G. Cionco, and V. M. Velasco Herrera, Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967–2018): A comparison between climate models and observations, Geosciences, 9(3), 135, doi:10.3390/geosciences9030135, 2019.
76.	Kron, W., J. Eichner, and Z. W. Kundzewicz, Reduction of flood risk in Europe – Reflections from a reinsurance perspective, Journal of Hydrology, 576, 197-209, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.050, 2019.
77.	Shalby, A., M. Elshemy, and B. A. Zeidan, Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, doi:10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x, 2019.
78.	Wine, M. L., Toward strong science to support equitable water sharing in securitized transboundary watersheds, Biologia, doi:10.2478/s11756-019-00334-8, 2019.
79.	Frank, P., Propagation of error and the reliability of global air temperature projections, Frontiers in Earth Science, 7, 223, doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00223, 2019.
80.	#Hossain, F., D. Niyogi, R. A. Pielke, J. Chen, D. Wegner, A. Mitra, S. Burian, E. Beighley, C. Brown, and V. Tidwell, Current approaches for resilience assessment, Resilience of Large Water Management Infrastructure, Hossain, F. (editor), 35-43, Springer International Publishing, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-26432-1_3, 2020.
81.	Wine, M. L., Climatization of environmental degradation: A widespread challenge to the integrity of earth science, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(6), 867-883, doi:10.1080/02626667.2020.1720024, 2020.
82.	Verbist, K. M. J., H. Maureira, P. Rojas, and S.Vicuna, A stress test for climate change impacts on water security: a CRIDA case study, Climate Risk Management, 28, 100222, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2020.100222, 2020.
83.	Hosseini-Moghari, S.-M., and Q. Tang, Validation of GPM IMERG-V05 and V06 precipitation products over Iran, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(5), 1011-1037, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-19-0269.1, 2020.
84.	Stefanidis, S., S. Dafis, and D. Stathis, Evaluation of regional climate models (RCMs) performance in simulating seasonal precipitation over mountainous Central Pindus (Greece), Water, 12(10), 2750, doi:10.3390/w12102750, 2020.
85.	Dong, Z., W. Jia, R. Sarukkalige, G. Fu, Q. Meng, and Q. Wang, Innovative trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation in the Jinsha river basin, China, Water, 12(11), 3293, doi:10.3390/w12113293, 2020.
86.	Turner, S. W. D., and P. J. Jeffrey, A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales, Water and Environment Journal, 35(1), 417-424, doi:10.1111/wej.12639, 2021.
87.	Sun, B., S. Chen, Q. Liu, Y. Lu, C. Zhang, and H. Fang, Review of sewage flow measuring instruments, Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(2), 2089-2098, doi:10.1016/j.asej.2020.08.031, 2021.
88.	Baran-Zgłobicka, B., D. Godziszewska, and W. Zgłobicki, The flash floods risk in the local spatial planning (case study: Lublin Upland, E Poland), Resources, 10(2), 14, doi:10.3390/resources10020014, 2021.
89.	Neupane, S., S. Shrestha, U. Ghimire, S. Mohanasundaram, and S. Ninsawat, Evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) for simulating climate extremes in the Asian cities, Science of The Total Environment, 797, 149137, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149137, 2021.
90.	Manous, J., and E. Z. Stakhiv, Climate risk-informed decision analysis (CRIDA): ‘top-down’ vs ‘bottom-up’ decision making for planning water resources infrastructure, Water Policy, 23(S1), 54-76, doi:10.2166/wp.2021.243, 2021.
91.	Stakhiv, E. Z., The centrality of engineering codes and risk-based design standards in climate adaptation strategies, Water Policy, 23(S1), 106-127, doi:10.2166/wp.2021.345, 2021.
92.	Ramadhan, R., H. Yusnaini, M. Marzuki, R. Muharsyah, W. Suryanto, S. Sholihun, M. Vonnisa, H. Harmadi, A. P. Ningsih, A. Battaglia, H. Hashiguchi, and A. Tokay, Evaluation of GPM IMERG performance using gauge data over Indonesian maritime continent at different time scales, Remote Sensing, 14(5), 1172, doi:10.3390/rs14051172, 2022.
93.	Haji-Aghajany, S., Y. Amerian, and A. Amiri-Simkooei, Function-based troposphere tomography technique for optimal downscaling of precipitation, Remote Sensing, 14(11), 2548, doi:10.3390/rs14112548, 2022.
94.	Mohebbi, A., K. R. Adams, S. Akbariyeh, M. Maruf, and A. H. Baghanam, Application of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in evaluating depth–duration–frequency estimates under a future climate scenario, Hydrology Research, 53(9), 1186-1202, doi:10.2166/nh.2022.045, 2022.
95.	Girma, R., C. Fürsta, and A. Moges, Performance evaluation of CORDEX-Africa regional climate models in simulating climate variables over Ethiopian main rift valley: Evidence from Gidabo river basin for impact modeling studies, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 99, 101317, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2022.101317, 2022.
96.	Ahamed, M. R. A., A. Sharma, J. M. Wani, and A. P. Dimri, The representation of summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India: assessing the performance of CORDEX-CORE model experiments, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 51, 1949-1962, doi:10.1007/s00704-023-04369-5, 2023.
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Tagged under: Course bibliography: Hydrometeorology, Climate stochastics, Works discussed in weblogs, Students' works